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Which Teams Are The Best Fits For Trevor Story?

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Trevor Story is one of two star free agent shortstops remaining on the market. To some extent, he’s in a second tier of his own at this point. Carlos Correa is the clear prize of the class. He’s two years younger than Story with more upside on both sides of the ball, and there’ll be a fairly significant gap in each player’s respective contract reflecting that.

Yet Story should be in high demand in his own right. Only one team can land Correa, and many may not want to entertain an asking price that could approach or top the $325MM Corey Seager landed from the Rangers. Story’s the only other shortstop still on the market who’s likely to offer above-average production for the next few seasons.

Let’s take a look at some potential suitors and try to peg Story’s likeliest landing spot. A few clubs are such longshots they only warrant cursory mention. The Orioles, Pirates and D-Backs aren’t in the kind of competitive window that suggests they’d make this kind of splash. The A’s and Reds are far likelier to cut payroll than make a nine-figure investment. The Rays, Brewers and Royals don’t typically spend at this level and have an abundance of infielders anyways. The Rangers have already signed both Seager and Marcus Semien in the middle infield and have Josh Jung approaching at third base.

Which teams make more sense?

Clubs With Infield Opportunity And Known Interest

  • Mariners — Jon Heyman of the MLB Network indicated prior to the lockout that the Mariners had put an offer on the table to Story. Seattle’s known to be pursuing infielders, and while they could roll with a group of Ty France, Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford and Abraham Toro, adding Story would be a nice boost on both sides of the ball. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been adamant about keeping Crawford at shortstop, but if Story’s amenable, he could slide to second base and push Frazier and/or Toro into roving utility roles.
  • Astros — The Astros are facing Correa’s potential departure and have Aledmys Díaz as their top in-house option at shortstop. Top prospect Jeremy Peña isn’t far off big league readiness, but Houston’s a win-now club without many vacancies on the roster. Aside from perhaps left-handed relief, shortstop is the only real question mark. Signing Story would reaffirm their position as one of the best teams in the sport, and Heyman reported they’ve shown some interest.
  • Red Sox — Heyman also reported the Red Sox had expressed interest with Story’s camp. Xander Bogaerts is a star, but he can opt out of his current contract after next season. Boston also has some uncertainty at second base, and either of Story or Bogaerts could slide to the other side of the diamond. As with Houston, this is a big-market team that wasn’t far from a championship last year.

Solid Speculative Fits

  • Angels — The Angels in-house shortstop options (Tyler Wade, Luis Rengifo, Jack Mayfield and Andrew Velazquez) aren’t enough for a hopeful contender. Los Angeles already has a few long-term investments for position players on the books, and they may still want to add another arm or two on the pitching staff. Locking in some certainty in the middle infield is a necessity, though, and Story fits the bill.
  • Blue Jays — The Jays have Bo Bichette at shortstop, but they’re facing some questions at both second and third base. They signed Semien to move off shortstop last winter; might they consider a similar tack with Story? There seems to be some payroll flexibility with which to work, as Toronto made a run at Seager before he landed in Texas.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals could try to upgrade over the Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa pairing at shortstop. That’s particularly true if DeJong ends up traded. To this point in the winter, though, there hasn’t been much indication that’s a priority for St. Louis. The Cardinals seem more interested in upgrading the bullpen and perhaps adding to the DH mix.
  • Cubs — The Cubs have been tied to Correa for much of the winter. They’re reportedly loath to commit to a decade-long deal, and Story could make sense as a fallback. The Cubs have taken a step back recently, and perhaps they view Correa as a unique player worth spending for. Would they pivot to Story or be content to ride things out with their internal options?
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers lost Seager and haven’t done much to replace him this winter. The Trea Turner acquisition at last summer’s deadline could be the necessary shortstop replacement, with Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux/Max Muncy logging action at second base. Los Angeles has been tied to Correa, though, suggesting they’re open to a star shortstop.
  • Phillies — The Phillies have question marks in both positions on the right side of the infield. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already told incumbent Didi Gregorius he’s not assured of keeping the shortstop job. Story’s a great fit on paper, particularly given the team’s desire to upgrade defensively. The question: will they want to commit huge resources at shortstop with question marks at third base, the bullpen and two outfield spots?
  • Twins — The Twins are trying to immediately rebound from a disastrous 2021 season. They essentially don’t have a starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco had a very good season offensively after moving from shortstop to second base. He could theoretically move back to short, with Luis Arráez stepping in at second. Yet that’s a suboptimal defensive group. Adding a shortstop makes sense, but Minnesota might prefer to allocate their resources to a rotation that has at least two vacancies.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have a question mark at second base. That was the case at the trade deadline too, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported at the time they considered a deal for Story. Nothing materialized, but it stands to reason they’d have some interest in a run at him now that he’s a free agent. The potential hold-up, as with a few other teams, is finances. Chicago’s already at a projected franchise record in terms of player spending.
  • Yankees — The Yankees entered the offseason with such a glaring need at shortstop that general manager Brian Cashman frankly stated they “have to address” the position. So far, they haven’t. Correa and Story are their last hopes at making an impact add via free agency, but various reports throughout the winter suggested they might look for lower-cost stopgap options with top prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe not far off big league readiness. Would the Yankees pivot to sign a higher-impact player like Story once the new CBA is in place and they have a clearer picture of the luxury tax landscape?

Longer Shots

  • Giants — The Giants have a ton of payroll space, but reports have suggested they’d prefer to spread their resources around rather than commit to a star free agent. Brandon Crawford is already locked in at shortstop. San Francisco could turn to Story as an upgrade over Tommy La Stella at second base, but the outfield and pitching staff seem like cleaner fits if they do reverse course and make a big splash.
  • Guardians — The Guardians have never gone beyond a $60MM guarantee on a single player. There’s essentially no long-term commitments on the books and Cleveland could add at shortstop and push Amed Rosario into the outfield, but it’s unlikely unless Story’s market unexpectedly craters.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are trying to add to the offense, but Story’s probably out of their price range. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Miguel Rojas in the middle infield, the outfield seems like a bigger priority anyways.
  • Nationals — The Nationals have long-term payroll space and an obvious need at shortstop. They could sign Story with an eye towards locking in some certainty for 2023 and beyond, but that kind of splash doesn’t seem to be in the cards this offseason.
  • Rockies — Story’s former club has expressed interest in bringing him back. There’s no indication they’ve kept in contact through the offseason, though. Story has expressed some frustration with the organization’s management in the past, and it’d be a real surprise if he ends up returning.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been active this winter and could still try to upgrade at second base. After signing Javier Báez to a six-year deal, though, they don’t look likely to be a serious player for Story.

Can Never Rule Them Out, But There Are Probably Other Priorities

  • Braves — The Braves have been quiet thus far, seemingly waiting out a decision from Freddie Freeman. They’ve already got Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley around the infield, so there’s no real need. Yet they’ve been tied to Correa, at least suggesting some openness to adding a shortstop (perhaps then trading Swanson for pitching help).
  • Mets — The Mets went hog-wild after installing their new front office. They’re seemingly in line to shatter whatever CBT thresholds are put in place, and with that kind of financial backing from owner Steve Cohen, it’s impossible to rule them out on anyone entirely. Shortstop’s already accounted for with Francisco Lindor, though, and Jeff McNeil, Robinson Canó, J.D. Davis and newcomer Eduardo Escobar are already on hand as second/third base options. Starting pitching looks to be the bigger priority at this point, particularly since signing Story — who rejected a qualifying offer — would require the forfeiture of the #14 overall pick in next year’s draft.
  • Padres — President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has boldly struck even in the absence of an obvious team need before. But with Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth, there’s already a great infield in place.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where is Story likely to end up after the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

 

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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For the first time since before Bryce Harper played for Washington, the Nationals are basement dwellers in the NL East for consecutive seasons. Coming off their title season in 2019, their 26-34 finish in the truncated 2020 was easy to write-off as a result of the pandemic, but after 97 losses in 2021, there’s little doubt left: the Nationals need a reboot.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s been barely two years since Howie Kendrick scraped paint off the Astros’ right field foul pole, but the mainstays from that 2019 title team are almost all gone now. The trade deadline deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers was a gut punch for the fanbase and the unofficial end to the first competitive era of Nationals baseball. The Nats got their rings at what now seems like the last possible moment for the Scherzer/Strasburg era.

They weathered the loss of Harper for that one magical season, but since their road warrior heroics at Minute Maid Park, the franchise has been in relative disarray. Losing mainstays like Anthony Rendon and Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster, but no loss will be felt quite like Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer and Turner are two of the more visually stunning talents in the game as well as two of the most productive at their positions. After years of enjoying the brute force of Scherzer’s personality and Turner’s whiplash-inducing speed/power combo, the Nats no longer offer a symphony of baseball talent to the crowds in Southeast DC – they now have a one-man-band.

That said: Juan Soto is a gem. Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award. Instead, a .313/465/.534 campaign yielded “just” his first All-Star appearance and second silver slugger. He is the runner-up in MVP voting, somehow notching his third top-10 finish in four seasons. He might have the best plate discipline of any hitter since Barry Bonds, and despite his age, he’s now led the Majors in on-base percentage for two years running.

There is no praise too high for Soto. Given a league-wide re-draft, Soto would be a top-5 pick, full stop. The only thing keeping him from being among the highest jersey sales in the league is his market and physical skills that don’t jump out of the screen as it does for the three juniors, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Even the downsides to his game are fairly innocuous: Soto won’t steal 30 bases, and he doesn’t play a premium position. Reach deep and you could say that his power is relatively mortal (.221 ISO this season, 29 home runs). He may not be a power hitter of the strictest order, but he’s on his way. It’s a tool in his toolbelt and an area of potential growth as he ages into his physical prime.

He’s not going to get any faster, but he has shown an ability and willingness to improve in the outfield, even as he shifted from left to right field. It’s certainly possible to imagine a future where Soto spends some time as a designated hitter, but that’s not going to bother Nats’ fans. Where he plays in the field isn’t nearly as pressing as which field he calls home.

With three years until Soto’s free agency, the Nationals have entered the countdown era. It’s easy to imagine the cloud of Soto’s potential departure hanging over this franchise much like Kris Bryant’s free agency timeline dominated narratives for the post-title Cubs. Unfortunately, as a Scott Boras client, Soto isn’t likely to surrender his leverage anytime soon. And it’s hard to ignore the Nats’ recent habit of letting giant stars walk out the door.

The optimists would cite Boras’ purportedly good relationship with Nats’ ownership. Sure, Rendon and Harper both walked, but it was unclear how fully committed the Nats were to bring them back. They committed to Strasburg, and he did return – for better or for worse.

For Soto, it ought to help that he already won a ring in Washington, but GM Mike Rizzo will probably have to convince ownership to make Soto the richest man in the game in order to lock him up long-term. Luckily, the Nats are one of many teams that can’t really be priced out for any one free agent. Whatever the cost, they can pay it if they’re willing.

Regardless, the next three seasons are likely to play out as an extended courtship wherein Rizzo and owner Mark Lerner try to convince Soto that they can build a competitive engine around him that’s worth helming. Ironically, the Nationals are asking the Majors’ walks and OBP leader for patience.

That process began in earnest with the Scherzer/Turner trade. The move wasn’t just about sucking a last bit of value from Scherzer before he departed in free agency. It kickstarted a retooling effort around Soto. That much was evident in their return package.

Josiah Gray stepped directly into Scherzer’s rotation spot, and they need to see him turn into a mid-rotation starter by the end of 2022. The big fish of the deal, however, was Keibert Ruiz, a long-touted catching prospect who may replace Victor Robles as Soto’s primary running mate on the position player side. Ruiz may not be a middle-of-the-order bat, but he makes contact, should hit for power, and if he turns into a first division catcher as expected, he’ll play a large role in managing the pitching staff.

Amazingly, entering his age-23 season, Ruiz will be young for a rookie in his first full season, and still older than Soto. Regardless, after posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances, which included a particularly resilient end to the year (112 wRC+ in Sept/Oct), Ruiz will enter 2022 as Washington’s starting catcher. That’s an exciting development for Nats fans and a good first step to the “Courting Soto” era of Nats’ baseball, but it’s not enough to make them a contender.

Side note: Riley Adams, acquired from the Blue Jays for Brad Hand before the Dodgers’ deal, nicely complements Ruiz as the backup catcher, even if he does look as big as a house crouching behind the dish. After years of Matt Wieters underperformance and the steady-but-uninspiring upgrade to Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have their most exciting catchers’ room, perhaps, in franchise history.

Next to Soto in the outfield, Robles is the dream, but Lane Thomas is the reality. Acquired in an under-the-radar deal that sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals, Thomas took off while getting playing time as the Nats’ everyday centerfielder. The 26-year-old hit .270/.364/.489 in 206 plate appearances – easily the most opportunity he’s seen in the bigs. Thomas figures to see more chances in 2022, but what that means for Robles isn’t totally clear. Thomas could return to a fourth outfielder role, but since the Nats don’t currently have a left fielder, it’s difficult to speculate. Robles may have to play himself back into a regular role if he’s able.

As for left field, Yadiel Hernandez posted a solid 98 wRC+, though that number was dragged down by a 79 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. But he’s also 34-years-old and not probably more than a backup plan for Washington. Andrew Stevenson is the other name on the roster, and he’s proven best as a fourth or fifth option coming off the bench. There’s likely to be another outfielder to join this group once the lockout is resolved. Think Kyle Schwarber again, though probably not Kyle Schwarber again.

Another potential option that they explored in 2021 was using Josh Bell in left field. That’s not an ideal plan for a guy most people think is best-suited as a designated hitter. Bell could very well be dealt before the start of the season, but if not, he’s more likely to be the everyday first baseman and a break-in-case-of-emergency option in the grass.

At shortstop, Alcides Escobar made it back to the Majors for the first time in years, managed to play respectably, and earned a one-year, $1MM deal to stay in Washington. He’s the presumptive starter heading into the year, but the financial commitment isn’t exactly starter’s money. They could surprise everyone by making a play for Carlos Correa, and they could afford it, but there’s been little indication that Rizzo is ready to make that kind of splash this offseason.

That said, there’s not necessarily a shortstop of the future anywhere in the minors until you get to Jackson Cluff or young Brady House. The latter is years away and could end up at third base anyhow. Luis Garcia may be the answer the Nats are ready to settle on. He was a top prospect who was rushed to the Majors in 2020, and there have been growing pains since. He’s a second baseman, but since Cesar Hernandez was brought in on a one-year, $4MM deal, the keystone may be occupied. That could signal a desire for the 21-year-old to get more seasoning time in the minors, and it could mean that they are ready to let Garcia play short. Both options are somewhere in the playbook.

At the hot corner, time is running out for Carter Kieboom. The former top prospect is still just 24, but he’s put up successive seasons of 67 and 68 wRC+, and it’s not as if he’s been a stud with the glove. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Nationals right now. They’ve been tied at times to Bryant, and it’s been suggested that they could be a landing spot for a salary dump like Mike Moustakas, but that’s all speculative for now.

For the first part of the offseason at least, the Nationals took a throw-as-many-options-at-the-wall-as-possible approach. They signed Dee Strange-Gordon, Maikel Franco, and Richard Urena to minor league contracts. They claimed fleet-footed Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles. They brought back long-time extra body Adrian Sanchez on a minor league deal. They snagged Andrew Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks. That’s a veteran group that looks very Nationals-y, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or a pair of them make the roster.

The real problem for the Nationals, however, is the pitching. The rotation is up there as the most uncertain group in all of baseball. Gray is still establishing himself, Strasburg is perennially injured, and Corbin was among the worst rotation arms in baseball last season. If he can figure out his slider, and Stras can get himself back on the mound, there’s some ceiling for this group, but it’s not a real likely potentiality.

Joe Ross (again) flashed some ability to be a mid-range starter, but he (again) finished the year on the injured list. Ross looks to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the rest-and-rehab approach doesn’t always end well. Counting on Ross for quality innings is about as reckless as counting on Strasburg, Corbin, and Gray.

Josh Rogers and Paolo Espino would be in the 6-10 range for most organizations, but they are starters number four and five as of right now. Espino has been surprisingly productive for an older player without much Majors experience, and Rogers brings plenty of character, but not much of a track record. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth have both started without a whole lot of success, but they’re there in the bullpen just in case.

There are, however, some interesting arms on the horizon. Cade Cavalli is the biggest of the bunch, and he’s rising fast enough that he could surprise and make it to the Majors next year. The Nationals need Cavalli to stay healthy and develop into an impact arm. He looked the part in Double-A before getting touched up a bit in seven starts in Triple-A, where he should return to start 2022. Jackson Rutledge, Aldo Ramirez, Andry Lara, and Mason Denaburg are all names worth tracking, but they aren’t near enough to the Majors to make a difference.

For prospect arms capable of logging significant big league innings, look to Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo, or maybe Evan Lee, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Cole Henry is highly thought of within the organization, but he has just 8 starts in High-A and would have to be added to the 40-man. Carrillo was part of the Scherzer trade, and though he’s not a top prospect, an organization change always sets off alarms for a development jump. There’s no explicit evidence for that jump yet, and he has yet to make a stop in Triple-A.

On the whole, the Nats are beginning to put together an interesting collection of depth arms, but they don’t have the foundational pieces in the Majors. Not in the rotation, and not in the bullpen. They big adieu to Suero, a regular-use, one-pitch setup arm that’s been in the bullpen for years, and they DFA’ed Ryne Harper as well, another veteran option. Will Harris is the most proven arm remaining in the pen, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to prove it since yielding that long ball to Kendrick while with the Astros way back when.

Kyle Finnegan laid claim to the closer’s role, saving 11 games over 68 appearances with a 3.55 ERA/4.62 FIP. He’d be a useful arm in a first division pen, but not someone to build around. Tanner Rainey has the best stuff, but he took a step back last year and has struggled with consistency throughout his career. There’s a world in which Rainey goes big-time in ’22, but as with most of the Nats’ arms, Rainey’s stardom is more dream than reality right now.

Patrick Murphy was an interesting pickup worth watching as a guy who can go short or long, depending on need. The rest of the bullpen is very much a work in progress with Fedde, Voth, and late-developing Andres Machado highest on the pecking order.

In the first part of free agency, the Nationals weren’t very active, and it shows in the state of their roster. They need a left fielder and a DH/first baseman to split time with Bell if the DH arrives in the National League. Zimmerman could return still, and he’d fit nicely on a cheap contract as a right-handed complement for Bell, but he’s not an everyday player anymore.

They could stand upgrades at shortstop and third base, though it’s probably not worth displacing Garcia/Kieboom unless they get a significant star (and that seems unlikely this offseason). Besides, any money they have to spend should really be committed to pitching, though there’s not as much available on the free-agent market.

Long-term, Corbin has “just” three years left on his deal, so there’s light at the end of the tunnel. As of now, they’re still roughly $50MM under their 2021 payroll, and even that $162MM number was their lowest in years. Strasburg’s money is significant, and Boras willing, they’ll plunk down a king’s ransom for Soto at some point. But otherwise, their ledger is mostly empty. Unfortunately, so is their talent pool.

The Nationals are a slow-and-steady franchise, and with the most patient superstar in baseball now the centerpiece of their organization, they’re playing for the future. With just three years left of team control for Soto, that future is fast approaching. The Nats will strike to build a contender around Soto before he leaves. We know that much. We just don’t know the when or the how. To crack those codes, all we need is patience.

Brewers’ Enviable Rotation Depth Could Open Trade Possibilities For Front Office

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The Brewers’ star rotation trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta has drawn plenty of well-deserved attention. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award for his excellence in 2021. Woodruff and Peralta were well-deserved All-Star selections, with the former also receiving a solid amount of Cy Young support.

Essentially no one else around the league can match that kind of firepower at the top of the rotation. But Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta weren’t the only Milwaukee starters to have strong showings in 2021. Fourth and fifth starters Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer may not have been as electric as their rotation mates, but they’re both overqualified for back-end roles.

Houser pitched to a 3.22 ERA over a career-high 142 1/3 innings last season. The righty’s 17.5% strikeout rate wasn’t impressive, but Houser’s a ground-ball machine who’s had a decent amount of success despite mediocre whiff rates throughout his career. He owns a solid 3.78 ERA since the start of 2019, showing a knack for suppressing opponents’ exit velocities and keeping the ball in the yard.

Lauer came over from the Padres as part of the Trent Grisham – Luis Urías swap over the 2019-20 offseason. He barely pitched in the majors during his first season in Milwaukee, but the southpaw held down a rotation spot for most of last year. Across 118 2/3 frames, Lauer posted a 3.19 ERA that was far and away the best mark of his career. His strikeout and walk rates — 23.9% and 8.4%, respectively — were right around the respective league averages.

Unlike Houser, Lauer doesn’t excel at keeping the ball on the ground. A 4.24 SIERA suggests he’s probably closer to a league average rotation arm than his ERA — which befits a #2/3 type starter — might suggest. Even still, league average production would be a notable upgrade for many clubs’ starting staffs around the league. There are quite a few hopeful contenders expected to look for back-of-the-rotation help coming out of the lockout, and there’s not much reliability with the remaining free agent starters. Teams like the Reds and A’s might make notable starters available, but clubs looking for back-end help could also view the Brewers as a plausible trade partner.

Milwaukee’s squarely in win-now mode, and there’s a case to be made for them to hold onto their rotation depth. Each of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Lauer made 20+ starts last year, and the injury risk associated with any pitcher could make banking on a repeat of that kind of rotation durability risky. On the other hand, Milwaukee also has another promising young arm who could step into a permanent rotation role.

Aaron Ashby has been one of the top prospects in the Brewers system for the past few seasons. Public prospect evaluators have raised some questions about his spotty control, but Ashby has the kind of stuff to succeed against MLB hitters already. He debuted last season and flashed special ability. His 4.55 ERA over 31 2/3 innings isn’t eye-catching, but Ashby struck out 29.3% of opponents and racked up ground-balls at a massive 61.3% clip that even slightly exceeded Houser’s mark. Only White Sox setup man Aaron Bummer matched Ashby’s combination of strikeouts and grounders.

That alone doesn’t guarantee Ashby will be an impact starter. There’d be risk in moving one of Houser or Lauer to entrust him with a full-time rotation spot. But the Brewers at least have to be encouraged by the promise Ashby showed, and a Houser or Lauer trade could enable the front office to creatively address the offense. Milwaukee’s lineup was a touch below-average last season, and they’ve since lost Avisaíl García to free agency. The Brewers acquired Hunter Renfroe to replace García in right field, but the overall lineup could stand to pick up another bat, particularly if the new collective bargaining agreement adds the designated hitter to the National League.

Houser and Lauer are each entering their first season of arbitration eligibility. Assuming there aren’t any changes to the service time structure in the next CBA, they’d remain controllable through 2024. Both pitchers are projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for modest salaries between $2MM and $3MM next season. With Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Ashby all controllable for at least three more years themselves, the Brewers could contemplate dealing from their enviable rotation depth to bolster the offense after the transactions freeze.

Jorge Polanco’s Bounceback Season

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In advance of the 2019 campaign, Twins infielder Jorge Polanco signed a $25.75MM guarantee that extended the team’s window of contractual control by three seasons through 2025. It proved to be an opportune time to strike for the Minnesota front office, as Polanco had a breakout showing that year.

Serving as the primary #2 hitter in a Twins lineup that set an all-time record for home runs, the switch-hitting Polanco tallied 704 plate appearances and posted a .295/.356/.485 line. He wasn’t the biggest power threat on that team, but he did pop 22 home runs. Perhaps of more importance, he was one of the lineup’s better contact hitters and on-base threats, setting himself up to score plenty of runs in front of middle-of-the-order presences Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler. Polanco earned his first All-Star appearance and some down-ballot MVP votes for that showing.

Going into 2020, Polanco looked like one of the better offensive middle infielders around. That year’s shortened season was a struggle, though. Over 226 plate appearances, he stumbled to a .258/.304/.354 slash, managing just four homers. His batted ball metrics dipped, and his overall offensive output checked in 20 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+.

Polanco’s bat bounced all the way back last season. He played in 152 games and tallied 644 trips to the dish, slugging a career-best 33 homers. From a power perspective, the Dominican Republic native had easily his best single-season marks. His .235 ISO (slugging minus batting average) was markedly above the .171 league average. So too were Polanco’s 89.4 MPH average exit velocity, 10.1% barrel rate and 37.4% hard contact percentage, all personal bests.

Few players had a starker improvement between 2020 and 2021. Among players with 200+ plate appearances in 2020 and 500+ plate appearances in 2021, only nine had a bigger year-over-year jump in wRC+. He’d shown in 2019 that he’s capable of putting up this kind of production, but it seems Polanco made an effort to be a bit more aggressive last year.

Before 2021, he’d never offered at more than 45% of pitches he’d seen in a season. Last year, Polanco swung 49.3% of the time, attacking pitches both inside and outside the strike zone at a greater frequency. That’s particularly true on the opening pitches of a plate appearance.

Polanco’s first-pitch swing rate last year was a career-high 26.9%, a few ticks above his 2019 mark of 23.5% and well above 2020’s 16.8%. In each of his two best seasons, Polanco’s done a strong amount of damage on opening pitches of an at-bat. Swinging more often early in counts held his walk rate to a below-average 7%, but his combination of bat-to-ball skills and power meant he was very productive even without drawing many free passes.

In spite of Polanco’s bounceback, the 2021 season was a nightmare for the Twins. The expected contenders fell into last place in the AL Central at 73-89, never looking like realistic postseason threats. They’re not planning to rebuild, and Polanco’s going to enter the 2022 campaign as Minnesota’s regular second baseman. If the Twins continue to struggle and an organizational reboot becomes more plausible at this summer’s trade deadline or next winter, a Polanco trade may eventually become a possibility. For now, the organization will hope the rest of the roster can have a similar bounceback in 2022 as Polanco himself did last year.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Under-The-Radar Star Can Shape Phillies Offseason

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In 2021 an NL East pitcher threw close to 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and received Cy Young votes for his pitching prowess. Elsewhere in the division, a pitcher threw over 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and remains relatively obscure. That first pitcher was Mets superstar Jacob deGrom. The second pitcher was lefty Ranger Suárez, and he may be the key to the Phillies’ offseason.

Coming into the season, Suárez was even more obscure than he is coming out of it. An international signing out of Venezuela in 2012, the left-handed Suárez climbed the ranks of the Phillies farm system to little fanfare. After reaching the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018, and in two ensuing stints in 2019 and an illness-interrupted 2020, Suárez did little to distinguish himself from the pack. Through 67 innings across those first three looks, the Phillies pitcher sported a 4.66 ERA that ERA estimators largely validated. The only standout skill in that modest sample was an ability to generate groundballs, as opposing hitters smacked pitches into the dirt 52.7% of the time when facing the young Philly.

In May of this past season, Suarez was called up from Triple-A Lehigh for what is likely the final time in his career, as he joined the bullpen to back up a top-heavy Philadelphia rotation. Pitching in mostly multi-inning appearances, Suarez didn’t yield an earned run until his twelfth appearance of the season. This roll continued, even if Suarez proved fallible and put up a 2.25 ERA in the next 20 innings until the trade deadline. This dominant run through July convinced the Phillies to promote the lefty into their rotation, replacing Spencer Howard, the starter Suarez regularly mopped up innings for, after a trade with the Texas Rangers.

As a starter, Suarez rode his hot streak to the end of the season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA in 65 plus innings, and securing Philadelphia’s 82nd win of the season. All told, the breakout left-hander pitched to a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. A 2.72 FIP and 3.51 SIERA portend some regression, but above average command and strikeout abilities, plus a whopping 58.2% groundball rate, indicate that there was more than just luck at play in that final ERA. Additionally, Suárez was one of the best in the league at inducing soft contact per Statcast, whose metrics are even more bullish than those FIP or SIERA figures.

It’s rare for a season of this caliber to fly so under the radar come awards season, though Phillies advocates were likely a bit busy banging the Cy Young drum in favor of ace Zack Wheeler. For historical context though, a case could be made that the dual-role pitching Suarez was worthy of some down-ballot attention, if nothing else. After all, previous pure relievers Eric Gagne, Rollie Fingers, and former-Philly closer Steve Bedrosian all won the league’s top pitching award with comparable, and arguably inferior campaigns in the past. Award-winner Bryce Harper, who took home NL MVP honors in 2021, stumped for his teammate to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award that ultimately went to Buster Posey. 

All of that’s to say, for as unheralded as he was, Ranger Suarez was very good in 2021. Per Fangraphs’ RosterResource page, the left-handed pitcher is expected to slot into a rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, while Texas acquisitions Kyle Gibson and Hans Crouse round out the group. Rotation mainstay Zach Eflin, who flashed breakout potential the past two seasons before illness and knee troubles derailed his most recent campaign, should return early next season if he recovers as expected from September knee surgery.

Each member of that pitching squad carries some combination of health risk and questions about what they can reasonably produce in 2022: Wheeler pitched a career-high number of innings in 2021 after a shortened 2020 campaign; Nola sported an uncharacteristically high 4.63 ERA last season; Gibson’s bottom-line numbers nosedived following his trade to Philadelphia; Crouse has 270 professional innings to his name thanks to injuries, only 7 of which have come at the Major League level; Suárez is unlikely to post another ERA close to 1.00; and Eflin will be returning from surgery. 

One could look at these risks and determine that the Phillies need more depth, should anyone in this group fail to shoulder the bulk of a baseball season’s workload. A rosier stance however, is that the Phillies have one of the best rotations they’ve had in some time. Instead of relying on Vince Velasquez and a post-prime Jake Arrieta, or Matt Moore and Chase Anderson as they did this past year to fill a rotation, the Phillies front office may be looking to add that type of player entirely as depth. That is of course, unless President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld see another opportunity for improvement. 

One creative tactic aimed towards improvement may be for the Phillies to shift Suarez back to the bullpen, at least once Eflin returns or more rotation depth is acquired. As surprising as that move would be on the surface, it would allow Suarez to continue in a dual-role that he’s already proved exceptional. Further, it would bolster a bullpen that finished near the back of the pack in most categories and tied for first in blown saves with 34. It would also equip manager Joe Girardi with a shutdown lefty out of the pen, as Suarez was the toughest pitcher for lefties to hit in 2021. This is in contrast to the bullpen’s current top left-hander, José Alvarado, who walked 47 batters in 55 plus innings last season. 

While the Phillies are currently $29MM under the current CBA’s luxury-tax threshold (per RosterResource’s Jason Martinez), it’s unlikely that they’ll devote a sum greater than the $10MM it took to sign right-hander Corey Knebel to further improve the bullpen. More modest bullpen additions aren’t off the table, as free agent lefty Andrew Chafin and neutral-splits right-hander Colin McHugh are speculative fits that can probably be had for a lower annual amount than Knebel. Regardless of target, however, no free agent addition will prove as cost-effective as shifting the pre-arbitration Suárez to the back of the bullpen.

The versatility afforded by Suárez should not stop the Phillies from reinforcing their rotation depth and bullpen, but it does lessen the need to sink major resources into both. This flexibility will allow the Phillies to turn the bulk of their attention to the position player side of things, an area for the team that hasn’t looked this bare in quite a few offseasons. Half of the lineup is set, but vacancies and question marks are abound in the other half, as left field, center field, third base, and shortstop are set to be filled with players short on Major League success or players coming off down 2020 seasons.

Looking At The Remaining Free Agent Starters Beyond Rodon/Kershaw

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The free agent starting pitching market moved incredibly quickly in the run-up to the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are easily the top two unsigned options. Each has some health uncertainty but was excellent in 2021 when able to take the hill. Injury question marks could have held up their respective markets early in the offseason, and Kershaw also seems to have geographical preferences that’ll limit where he might end up. Yet that duo is in a tier of their own in terms of upside, and they’ll be the highest-profile free agent starters coming out of the transactions freeze.

For this exercise, we’ll set Rodón and Kershaw aside and look at the remainder of the rotation market. 26 other current free agents worked at least 50 innings as a starter in 2021. Using a few key pitching categories, we’ll see how they fared to take a look at some potential lower-cost signings for teams in search of back-of-the-rotation depth.

As with Rodón and Kershaw, a few of these pitchers represent unique cases. Yusei Kikuchi reportedly had three-year offers in hand before the lockout, so his market may be beyond “buy-low” status. Matthew Boyd and Danny Duffy each had surgery late in the 2021 season and aren’t expected to be ready for the start of next year. Boyd’s recovery timetable is still unclear; Duffy is targeting a June return.

Most of the pitchers remaining are currently healthy, back-end types at this point of their careers, though. Using FanGraphs’ splits leaderboards, let’s take a look at the top performers in various metrics last year. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters).

ERA (league average — 4.34)

  1. Danny Duffy, 2.55
  2. Wily Peralta, 3.12
  3. Kwang-hyun Kim, 3.63
  4. Michael Pineda, 3.72
  5. Matthew Boyd, 3.89
  6. Johnny Cueto, 4.09
  7. Zack Greinke, 4.11
  8. Brett Anderson, 4.22
  9. Yusei Kikuchi, 4.41
  10. Chad Kuhl, 4.43

Strikeout Rate (league average — 22.6%)

  1. Danny Duffy, 25.7%
  2. Yusei Kikuchi, 24.5%
  3. Vince Velasquez, 22.8%
  4. Drew Smyly, 21.8%
  5. Chad Kuhl, 20.1%
  6. Matthew Boyd, 19.9%
  7. Johnny Cueto, 19.8%
  8. Matt Moore, 19.2%
  9. Martín Pérez, 19.1%
  10. Tyler Anderson, 19.1%

Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.7 percentage points)

  1. Danny Duffy, 16.9 points
  2. Yusei Kikuchi, 15.2 points
  3. Michael Pineda, 14.6 points
  4. Drew Smyly, 14.2 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 13.8 points
  6. Tyler Anderson, 13.7 points
  7. Matthew Boyd, 13.1 points
  8. Vince Velasquez, 12.3 points
  9. Zack Greinke, 11.8 points
  10. Martín Pérez, 11.7 points

Ground-Ball Rate (league average — 42.7%)

  1. Brett Anderson, 57.5%
  2. José Ureña, 52.7%
  3. Wily Peralta, 50.8%
  4. Carlos Martínez, 50.2%
  5. Yusei Kikuchi, 48.4%
  6. Garrett Richards, 46.6%
  7. Chad Kuhl, 46.5%
  8. Kwang-hyun Kim, 45.6%
  9. Matt Shoemaker, 45.1%
  10. Zack Greinke, 44.1%

FIP (league average — 4.30)

  1. Danny Duffy, 3.44
  2. Johnny Cueto, 4.10
  3. Matthew Boyd, 4.10
  4. Kwang-hyun Kim, 4.27
  5. Michael Pineda, 4.27
  6. Tyler Anderson, 4.37
  7. Brett Anderson, 4.39
  8. Matt Harvey, 4.60
  9. Yusei Kikuchi, 4.61
  10. Zack Greinke, 4.69

Innings Pitched

  1. Zack Greinke, 168 2/3
  2. Tyler Anderson, 167
  3. Yusei Kikuchi, 157
  4. J.A. Happ, 152 1/3
  5. Zach Davies, 148
  6. Jon Lester, 141 1/3
  7. Mike Foltynewicz, 130
  8. Matt Harvey, 127 2/3
  9. Drew Smyly, 115 2/3
  10. Johnny Cueto, 112 1/3

The Best Remaining Free Agents

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The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement brought about a November flurry of free agent signings well beyond anything we’ve seen before.  We published our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list on November 8th, and at this point 20 players from that list remain unsigned.  Let’s take a look at who will still be out there when the lockout ends.

1.  Carlos Correa.  The Rangers committed $500MM to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Tigers signed Javier Baez.  The Tigers doubling up on one of the big five free agent shortstops should, in theory, be a good thing for Correa.  As our top free agent of the winter, we still believe Correa’s agent will find a way to get his client paid.  However, if teams like the Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Phillies truly won’t get near Correa’s assumed asking price (north of Seager’s $325MM), he lacks a contending big market team in need of a shortstop.

3.  Freddie Freeman.  Most observers still consider the Braves the favorite for Freeman.  Last week, I ran through potential matches if the Braves can’t get it done.  MLBTR readers saw the Yankees and Dodgers as clear favorites in that case.  For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with that.

4.  Kris Bryant.  Hours prior to the expiration of the CBA, Jon Heyman mentioned that the Mets, Angels, and Padres had shown interest in Bryant, while the Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros are among the other teams who have “checked in.”  Bryant’s expected market prior to the lockout remains mostly intact, but the Rangers have committed $561.2MM to free agents and the Mets are in for $254.5MM.  That probably decreased the willingness of those teams to go big on Bryant.

8.  Trevor Story.  Story could serve as the more affordable alternative to Correa, with Baez’s six-year, $140MM deal likely serving as a benchmark.  Story doesn’t have an obvious shortstop-needy team with $100MM+ burning a hole in its pocket, however.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  Castellanos was one of the top available bats at the opening of free agency, and he figures to be easier for a new team to sign than Freeman.  Still, Castellanos is a player with some wide error bars on contract predictions.  MLBTR said $115MM over five years, but outlets like ESPN and FanGraphs were at three years and $54-63MM.

15.  Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber is a player who works against Castellanos, in that he’s a year younger and didn’t receive a qualifying offer.  He had a similar 2021 season to Castellanos, albeit with less volume.

18.  Carlos Rodon.  We felt that second half health concerns would limit Rodon to one to three years, and we still feel that way.  If that’s correct, his market could be robust given the increasing aversion among teams to long-term contracts.  The chance to get a potential ace on a short-term deal is what made Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so appealing.

20.  Seiya Suzuki.  When the lockout ends, Suzuki will have 20 days left to sign with an MLB team.  As Brad Lefton of the New York Times pointed out in late November, “Spring training in Japan starts Feb. 1, roughly three weeks earlier than the current MLB schedule. Beyond players with health issues, latecomers are almost unheard-of in Japan. If Suzuki has any thoughts of returning to the Carp, he would probably want to do that with the rest of the group on Feb. 1.”  If we don’t see progress on the MLB lockout this month, it’s possible Suzuki will play another year in Japan rather than wait around in limbo.

21.  Anthony Rizzo.  It’s possible Rizzo would like to see what happens with Freeman to get clarity on his own market, but Rizzo will require a much more modest contract.  He could find a home with a team that won’t be considering Freeman.  Rizzo and his wife have moved out of their longtime Chicago apartment, but if he signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.

25.  Jorge Soler.  Soler’s market hasn’t been altered much by the signings that have taken place.  He’ll be rooting for the National League designated hitter.

29.  Kenley Jansen.  Most of the top right-handed relievers are off the board, like Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Mark Melancon, and Corey Knebel.  But contenders can almost always supplement the bullpen, so Jansen should be fine.  The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres are the ten teams who have spent at least $7MM on a reliever so far.

32.  Michael Conforto.  We’ve only seen four major outfield signings so far in Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, Avisail Garcia, and Mark Canha.  We generally didn’t expect Conforto to re-sign with the Mets anyway, so his market is largely unaffected.

33.  Clayton Kershaw.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 81.8% of readers predicted Kershaw would sign with the Dodgers or Rangers or retire.  Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of the lefty, who turns 34 in March.  Kershaw received a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon in October.

34.  Yusei Kikuchi.  One of four starting pitchers remaining from our Top 50 list, Kikuchi is only 30 years old and comes without health concerns.  Despite a 4.41 ERA on the season, the lefty has upside and should be a popular post-lockout target.

40.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke, 38, seems in line for a one-year deal if he decides to continue playing.

41.  Eddie Rosario.  Rosario seemed like a decent match for the Marlins, who signed Avisail Garcia for $53MM.  Otherwise, his market should be mostly intact.

43.  Jonathan Villar.  Leury Garcia signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal to stay with the White Sox as their jack-of-all-trades utility guy.  Villar generally doesn’t play outfield, but he’s otherwise comparable and may still find a two-year deal.

45.  Ryan Tepera.  Tepera is a solid right-handed setup type.  Hector Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal could be a comparable on the high end.  Tepera may be easier to sign than Jansen, as Tepera doesn’t have any attachment to serving in a closer’s role.

47.  Nelson Cruz.  Like Soler, Cruz will be well-served by a universal DH.

48.  Danny Duffy.  Last month, Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he “plans to start a throwing program in March and intends to be ready to pitch by June.”  The 33-year-old southpaw will make for an intriguing one or two-year addition.

Honorable mentions: Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Johnny Cueto, Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly, Andrew McCutchen, Collin McHugh, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Michael Pineda

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox made a somewhat surprising run to the ALCS in 2021. They’ve been fairly quiet to this point in the offseason, making a series of low-cost additions on the pitching staff. Yet they could be poised for some more impactful activity once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, LHP: $82MM through 2024 (Sale can opt out of final two years and $55MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2025 vesting option based on Cy Young voting)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $80MM through 2025 (Bogaerts can opt out of final three years and $60MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2026 vesting option based on plate appearances)
  • J.D. Martinez, DH: $19.375MM through 2022
  • Matt Barnes, RHP: $18.75MM through 2023 (including buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., CF: $17.5MM through 2022 (including buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $17MM through 2022
  • James Paxton, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (deal contains club option for 2023-24; Paxton can exercise 2023 player option if club declines their option)
  • Enrique Hernández, 2B: $8MM through 2022
  • Christian Vázquez, C: $7MM through 2022
  • Michael Wacha, RHP: $7MM through 2022
  • Rich Hill, LHP: $5MM through 2022
  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RHP: $2.2MM through 2022 (including buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
  • Franchy Cordero, CF: $825K through 2022

Owe $16MM to Dodgers as part of David Price trade

Total 2022 commitments: $155MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

After coming up a couple wins shy of a pennant, the Red Sox opened the winter facing the departure of a few important members of last year’s club. Most notable among them: longtime rotation cog Eduardo Rodríguez and midseason trade pick-up Kyle Schwarber.

Boston expressed interest in retaining both players, but Rodríguez departed fairly quickly. The southpaw signed a five-year deal with the Tigers in the first marquee free agent move of the offseason, leaving the Sox to turn elsewhere for starting pitching. Boston was loosely tied to top-of-the-market options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, and they reportedly had strong interest in Steven Matz. Yet in all three cases — as with Rodríguez — those hurlers ended up landing multi-year deals elsewhere.

With no long-term rotation deals finalized, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office pivoted to a bulk approach to the pitching staff. Rather than concentrating their resources into a mid-rotation innings eater, the Sox have spread money around on a few lower-cost arms.

They began by inking Michael Wacha to a $7MM guarantee, making them the latest team to roll the dice on a hopeful bounceback from the righty. As the lockout neared, Boston reunited with veteran Rich Hill, who’s remarkably coming off his highest innings total since 2007. The Massachusetts native is entering his age-42 campaign, yet he’s continued to produce at an average or better level every season, adding to an incredible late-career renaissance that began in Boston in 2015.

Wacha and Hill are each options for the season-opening starting staff. Boston’s other free agent rotation pickup, James Paxton, is not. He’s still recovering from an April 2021 Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready until the middle of the season. Paxton’s a very good pitcher when healthy, though, and for a $10MM guarantee, the Sox picked up a two-year club option that could keep him around through 2024.

The Red Sox’s choice to eschew a huge rotation investment minimizes their long-term financial downside, but it’s not without risk in 2022. There’s plenty of upside among Boston’s in-house rotation options, but it’s a high-variance unit. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Chris Sale returns to his ace-caliber form, but it’s tough to treat that as a given after Sale missed most of the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent last season and could be a high-end #2 behind Sale, but he’s had ups and downs throughout his career. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but inconsistent production.

Boston seems comfortable with that volatility. The free agent rotation market has been mostly picked through to this point. There are still some interesting trade possibilities, but it’d register as a bit of a surprise if Boston lands someone like Sonny Gray or Sean Manaea after signing three free agent starters. That’s particularly true given the presence of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, each of whom the club will seemingly consider for the rotation mix.

The latter two hurlers might also find themselves in the bullpen. Whitlock, in particular, was downright excellent in shorter stints as a rookie. While he’d had some success as a starter in the minors and has spoken about his desire to land a rotation role, it’s arguable the Sox should keep him in relief.

The late inning mix is uncertain, largely thanks to the second half struggles of Matt Barnes. Signed to a two-year extension after an All-Star first half, Barnes was awful during the season’s final couple months and was left off the initial playoff roster. As he struggled to find his footing, Whitlock emerged as the top late-game option for manager Alex Cora. Getting Barnes back on track is no doubt a key focus for the Boston coaching staff and front office, but it’s tough to pencil him back into a high-leverage role at the moment.

In addition to Barnes’ downturn, the Sox are facing the free agent departures of a few of their most relied-upon relievers. Garrett Richards and Martín Pérez were both kicked to the bullpen midseason after struggling as starters; their contracts have since been bought out. Adam Ottavino hit free agency, as did midseason pickup Hansel Robles. Those aren’t impact arms, and Boston could look to bring one or more back on affordable deals. But it’s a lot of relief innings to potentially walk out the door, and with a high-risk, high-reward rotation, having a reliable bullpen takes on all the more importance.

Some of the Red Sox’s bullpen work may have already been addressed by their rotation signings. Adding enough starters to have the flexibility to use Whitlock and/or Houck later in games helps, and Wacha might eventually be a bullpen option himself. Yet there’s more work to be done, particularly from the right side. Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernández and midseason trade acquisition Austin Davis make for a solid trio of southpaws. The right-handed group — likely anchored by Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura — looks a bit thinner.

At least one big league addition to the mix seems likely, whether via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft. Just minutes before the lockout, Bloom told reporters the club was hoping to “add more pitching,” noting that they’d “yet to address (the bullpen) in meaningful fashion.” Kenley Jansen is the biggest-name free agent closer still available, while players like Ryan Tepera and Collin McHugh could step into set-up roles.

Bloom also indicated the Red Sox would like to add a right-handed bat whenever teams are again permitted to make moves. That came on the heels of the club trading away one of their top righty hitters, outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With the transactions freeze fast approaching, Boston sent Renfroe to Milwaukee to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of fairly well-regarded prospects.

The deal, which essentially amounted to taking on a few million dollars in salary to bolster the farm system while parting with Renfroe, registered as a surprise for a win-now Red Sox club. Bradley’s coming off the worst offensive season of any regular in MLB. The front office is no doubt hoping a return to familiar environs can help to reinvigorate his bat, and Bradley’s still a high-end center fielder. But while the front office may not believe the downgrade from Renfroe to Bradley is as significant as their respective 2021 numbers would indicate, it’s unquestionably a blow to the club’s offense.

Renfroe was fifth on the team in park-adjusted hitting last season (minimum 100 plate appearances). His loss, coupled with Schwarber’s potential free agent departure, could make it hard for the Sox to again run out a top-five run scoring unit in 2022. The deal does, however, make for a sizable defensive improvement, much needed for a team that was by far the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs.

Strong team defenses were behind a lot of the Rays’ success during Bloom’s tenure in the Tampa Bay front office, and it seems that’ll be a priority for his clubs in Boston. That might diminish the possibility of a Schwarber reunion, since he’s a bat-first corner outfielder who struggled to acclimate to first base down the stretch. There’s room on the roster for a position player pickup of some form, though, and there’s enough flexibility that that addition could come in a number of areas.

That’s largely thanks to the presence of utilityman Enrique Hernández, who had an excellent season after signing a two-year deal last winter. Hernández is a plus defensive option at a number of positions, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield serves the front office well. If the Red Sox add an outfielder from outside the organization (or re-sign Schwarber), then they’d have that player, top prospect Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo and Bradley as options on the grass. Hernández, meanwhile, could slide to second base, where there’s not a whole lot of certainty internally. Alternatively, Boston could acquire a second baseman (the Mets are reportedly likely to make Jeff McNeil available, to name one speculative possibility) and rely on Hernández primarily in center with Bradley pushed into fourth outfield duty.

It’s also worth mentioning the possibility of the Red Sox going all out for one of the two remaining star free agent shortstops. Reports have tied Boston to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story this winter, and owner John Henry has shown a willingness to make a significant splash in years past.

Boston certainly doesn’t need a shortstop. Xander Bogaerts is one of the sport’s best players, and the Sox could feel good about him keeping the job entering the season. He can opt out of his current contract at the end of next season, though, and Boston could see a Correa or Story signing as a way to preemptively guard against Bogaerts’ possible departure (as the Dodgers did in acquiring Trea Turner with Corey Seager’s free agency looming).

Signing Correa or Story could push Bogaerts over to second base. While he’s an excellent hitter, Bogaerts hasn’t rated highly as a defender in the eyes of most public advanced metrics. A move to the keystone could help address Boston’s aforementioned team-wide defensive issues, particularly if the Red Sox signed the Gold Glove-winning Correa. (Advanced metrics have been mixed on Story, who has a strong glove and range but has had some issues with throwing errors in recent years).

As things currently stand, Hernández and Christian Arroyo look like the favorites for playing time at second base. Prospect Jeter Downs was added to the 40-man roster and might factor into the mix as well, but he’ll first need to rebound from a dismal Triple-A season. The remaining free agent options at the position aren’t great, leaving a run at Story/Correa or a trade as the best ways for an upgrade.

Boston could also be a dark horse suitor for either of Kris Bryant or Freddie Freeman if they’re content with their current middle infield. Bryant could play primarily in the corner outfield while seeing some action at third base, perhaps allowing Rafael Devers to spend more time across the diamond at first base. Devers is an impact hitter but has had his share of defensive woes as well. Bryant’s among the best right-handed bats still available, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield would fit with the Red Sox’s seeming penchant for defensive versatility.

Freeman would be a first base solution only, supplanting Bobby Dalbec on the depth chart there. Top first base prospect Triston Casas isn’t far off major league readiness, but Freeman and Casas could split first base/designated hitter duties in 2023 and beyond. J.D. Martinez forewent an opt-out possibility and will return as the DH next season, but he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. A run at Freeman would be an outside-the-box move and would probably lead to a Dalbec trade that skews the lineup even more left-handed. But Freeman’s the type of impact player teams should be willing to creatively accommodate, if negotiations between he and the Braves stall out over his reported desire for a sixth guaranteed year.

There are myriad infield possibilities for Bloom and his front office. Adding to the roster in some form makes sense, although it’s also possible the organization prioritizes a long-term deal for one of their current stars. Perhaps Boston could try to supersede Bogaerts’ opt-out by exploring another contract extension with the three-time All-Star. Presumably, the club would love to to work out a deal with Devers, controllable through 2023 via arbitration. Both players are far enough along in their careers that they may prefer to just wait out free agency, but the Red Sox at least figure to be in touch with their respective representatives.

The final area of the roster — the catching corps — already seems in place. The Red Sox exercised a $7MM option on Christian Vázquez to open the winter. After avoiding arbitration with backup Kevin Plawecki, they look to have that duo locked in with Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández as depth options. The Sox reportedly looked into a Jacob Stallings deal before the Pirates traded him to the Marlins, indicating at least some willingness to make a move behind the plate. Stallings is no longer available, though, and a Vázquez – Plawecki pairing should be capable if unspectacular.

The roster is versatile enough that the opportunities are numerous — if ownership is willing to sign off on another significant expenditure. That the Red Sox have been loosely tied to Correa and Story might suggest there’s money to be spent once the new CBA is in place and the team has more information about the luxury tax thresholds. They haven’t made any huge offseason splashes since Bloom took over the front office, but an impact move or two may be necessary to keep pace in a loaded American League East.

Free Agent Faceoff: Catcher Pile

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A lot has happened since MLBTR previewed this winter’s free agent catchers back in September. Several players were cast off of rosters as the season’s final months played out, which added some names to the pile. Some names were removed from the pile as well, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all put pen to paper in the past few months. That means that an already-thin market is now even thinner, leaving teams with limited avenues for bolstering their catching corps. Trades are always an option, of course. But in terms of free agents, there are only five remaining catchers that played more than 35 games in 2021.

Stephen Vogt, 37, was designated for assignment by Atlanta in October, as the Braves were in the midst of their charge towards becoming World Series champions. It was revealed a few days later that Vogt had undergone sports hernia surgery, which isn’t expected to prevent him from being ready for spring training this year. He played 78 games in 2021, between the Diamondbacks and Braves. Although he has usually received more praise for his offense than his defensive work, he hit just .195/.283/.333, wRC+ of 64 this past season. He also had a rough campaign in 2020, but was productive as recently as 2019, when he hit .263/.314/.490. That amounted to a wRC+ of 106 and 0.9 fWAR in 99 games.

Kurt Suzuki, 38, signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2021 and played 72 games for them this year. Like Vogt, he’s long been considered more of a bat-first catcher, but he hit only .224/.294/.343 for the Halos, for a wRC+ of 76. However, his wRC+ was over 100 in each of the previous four seasons. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 50 home runs and slashed .272/.337/.475, wRC+ of 111.

Robinson Chirinos, 37, has a similar profile to Vogt and Chirinos, often earning praise for his offensive skills. But unlike them, he’s not coming off a down year at the plate. From 2015 to 2019, he had an excellent five-year run, hitting 71 home runs and slashing .234/.340/.452, for a wRC+ of 109. The shortened 2020 campaign was not kind to him, however, as his line dropped to .162/.232/.243. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but was later signed by the Cubs to a major league deal. He got into 45 games for them and hit .227/.324/.454, wRC+ of 108.

Austin Wynns, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles thus far. They selected him in the 10th round of the 2013 draft. He’s played in 115 MLB games across three different seasons. In 2021, he got into 45 games and hit .185/.232/.308. He was outrighted off the roster and elected free agency in October. He’s the youngest of this group but also has the least significant track record at the plate. He does have a strong defensive reputation, however, and less than two years’ service time, meaning he could have years of cheap team control, unless the new CBA changes the service time rules.

Wilson Ramos, 34, split his season between Detroit and Cleveland, getting into 44 games on the year. He hit .205/.248/.397, for a wRC+ of 72. He’s long had a strong defensive reputation, though that has waned as injuries have taken their toll on him over the years. His 2021 season came to an end with an unfortunate injury in August. He isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.

Which of these backstops is the best option for teams that want to add some depth behind the plate? Have your say in the poll below.

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