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Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K

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A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.

A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.

That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.

Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41

A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.

Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.

In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.

Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16

Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.

Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10

A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.

Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03

Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.

Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00

Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.

MLBTR Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Ketel Marte?

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There may be no bigger question for the Diamondbacks this winter than whether to trade Ketel Marte. A fourth-place finisher in 2019 NL MVP voting, Marte looked to be emerging as one of the game’s best position players. An average showing in the 2020 truncated schedule registered as a disappointment, but the switch-hitter returned to his 2019 form last year.

Marte hit .318/.377/.532, production that checked in 39 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. Strains of both hamstrings limited him to just more than half of Arizona’s games, as he tallied 374 plate appearances over 90 contests. When healthy, Marte was dynamic, and his relative down year in 2020 now looks like an anomaly. In just under 1,200 plate appearances since the start of 2019, he’s a .318/.374/.543 hitter. His 137 wRC+ in that time ranks 11th among the 159 players with more than 1,000 trips to the plate.

That’s star-level offensive output, and Marte also offers up-the-middle defensive value. He didn’t acclimate well to a move to center field last year, but he’s rated as an average or better gloveman at second base. Some clubs may have reservations about his health after last year’s hamstring issues, but few players around the league can match Marte’s combination of bat-to-ball skills, raw power and athleticism.

In addition to his obvious talent, Marte’s incredibly affordable. He’ll play the 2022 season on a modest $8.4MM salary, and he’s controllable through 2024 via a pair of club options worth a combined $24MM. The Marlins are the only club known to have contacted the D-Backs about Marte this winter, but it stands to reason there are plenty of other teams with interest in a player of this caliber on such a team-friendly contract.

Whether the Diamondbacks would trade Marte is uncertain. They seemed to take him off the market quite early at last summer’s deadline. General manager Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye have both spoken in recent months about a desire to avoid a full rebuild while building the franchise around a few cornerstone players, and Marte no doubt qualifies. Both Hazen and Sawdaye have left the door open a bit, noting that they’re not in position to deem anyone completely untouchable coming off an NL-worst 52-110 season. Yet neither executive sounded enthused about the possibility, and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote last month that it’d take a “monster package” for Arizona to move Marte.

Should the Diamondbacks be willing to entertain a Marte trade? They’re in a division with three of the game’s most talented rosters, and it’s hard to see a path to contention in 2022. The D-Backs could look into another contract extension, but a new Marte deal would be far costlier than the one on which he’s currently playing.

One could make a cogent argument that Arizona should pursue some form of organizational reboot, and no one on the roster would bring back as strong a return in trade as Marte. Yet there’s no certainty any prospect they get back will become a player anywhere near Marte’s caliber, and he should still be in high demand this summer or next offseason if the club hasn’t seen much near-term progress.

(poll link for app users)

 

The A’s Top Bullpen Trade Candidate

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A series of pre-lockout reports suggested there could be a broad sell-off coming in Oakland. Barring the introduction of a fairly high salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement, the A’s seem likely to move some of their costlier players in an effort to trim payroll.

That sell-off has yet to begin, as the trade market didn’t pick up a ton of steam before the transactions freeze. It’s generally expected that the A’s could be among the most active teams coming out of the lockout, with their pair of star infielders (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman) and trio of starters with dwindling club control (Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas) drawing plenty of attention from rival fanbases. Bullpen-needy teams could also look to Oakland, in particular to closer Lou Trivino.

A former 11th-round pick, Trivino has been a bullpen workhorse since making his major league debut in 2018. He’s never required an injured list stint and has eclipsed 60 innings in each of the last three full seasons. Despite taking on significant workloads, Trivino has been consistently effective, working to a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his four campaigns. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a 3.34 mark over 97 frames, holding opponents to a .211/.305/.313 slash line.

ERA estimators haven’t quite been as bullish as those strong results.  While he posted plus strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers early in his career, both have ticked down in recent seasons. His 21.6% strikeout percentage last year was more than two points lower than average for relievers, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate fell below the league mark for the first season of his career. And Trivino has never had great control, walking batters at a 10% clip or greater each season.

In large part due to that unspectacular strikeout and walk profile, both SIERA and FIP have pegged him closer to a high-3.00’s ERA type. He’s benefitted from a rather low opponents’ batting average on balls in play, no doubt in part due to the strong defenses the A’s run out behind him. Yet Trivino has also done his part to avoid especially damaging contact, particularly when put in favorable situations.

In each of his four seasons, the righty’s average exit velocity allowed has been a touch lower than the league mark. His performance becomes more notable when isolating Trivino’s performance against same-handed batters. Righties have an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity against him over the past two years, a mark that’s among the bottom quarter of pitchers leaguewide (minimum 500 offerings). Thanks in large part to that contact suppression, the Pennsylvania native has dominated righty hitters. Since the start of 2020, they’ve mustered only a .169/.261/.232 line against him. Trivino’s strikeout rate against righties is a solid 24.9%, and he’s induced ground-balls at a strong 47% clip.

As one might guess, he’s been far less effective against opposite-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .271/.367/.431 against Trivino in that time. His 20.5% strikeout percentage and 88.5 MPH average exit velocity when at a platoon disadvantage are well worse than his numbers against righties. His walk rate has a similar discrepancy. With the platoon advantage, it’s a manageable 9.3%; against left-handers, he’s walked an untenable 13.3% of opponents.

Those platoon splits probably make him an imperfect fit for a defined closer’s role, particularly in a less pitcher-friendly park than Oakland’s Coliseum and/or in front of a lesser defense. Trivino could be a highly valuable situational option, though, a weapon for a manager to call on against lineups’ top right-handed bats. The three-batter minimum makes it impossible to shield him from lefties entirely, yet an acquiring club could at least mitigate his platoon troubles by avoiding using him against opponents’ best left-handed hitters when possible.

Trivino wouldn’t be as impactful a pickup as any of Oakland’s position player or rotation stalwarts. He’s a good reliever with a particularly strong skill for handling righty bats, though. With essentially every contender on the hunt for bullpen help, he should draw interest coming out of the lockout, and it stands to reason the A’s would be amenable to moving him.

While Trivino’s $2.9MM projected arbitration salary isn’t onerous, he’s already 30 years old and down to his final three years of club control. The A’s aren’t likely to go into a full rebuild, but even if they’re only entertaining a one or two-year step back, Trivino should be available. His arbitration salaries will continue to rise over the coming seasons, particularly if he remains in the closer’s role in Oakland and accumulates a number of saves.

Barring a dominant 2022 showing, his trade value probably won’t increase over the coming months. Even if the A’s were to retool quickly and have a contending roster in place again by 2023 or 2024, Trivino’s arbitration price by that point may be too high for their liking. He probably won’t be the first player moved out of Oakland and certainly won’t grab the most headlines, but Trivino looks like a strong trade candidate whenever teams are permitted to again discuss MLB deals.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022.  With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive.  Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact.  It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout.  While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt).  However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen.  It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.  Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons.  In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure.  Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic.  With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign.  It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes.  Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans.  Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March.  The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal.  Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee.  With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon.  The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season.  For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns.  There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023.  It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild.  However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames.  Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023.  Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles.  There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal).  If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options.  While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.”  This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021.  Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish.  Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations.  The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team.  Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known.  Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized.  The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023.  An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars.  Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year.  There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim.  With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019.  If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year.  Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign.  If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining.  While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning.  One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise.  Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end.  New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout.  Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term.  That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement.  The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job.  Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year.  The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season.  If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length.  Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series.  Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades.  Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records.  Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change.  It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason.  Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade

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Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)

That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.

In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.

With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.

Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.

This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.

Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.

Transaction Retrospection: The Pirates Take Roberto Clemente From The Dodgers In The Rule 5 Draft

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Though the lockout prevented the Rule 5 Draft from taking place in its usual December timeslot, the R5 will happen at some point once the transactions freeze is over, thus continuing one of baseball’s oldest traditions.  At a time when competitive balance is at the forefront of labor talks between the league and the MLBPA, the Rule 5 Draft has long served as a vehicle for players to gain opportunities on new teams, and to prevent clubs from hoarding young talent.  While the specifics and procedures of the event changed greatly over the years, the Rule 5 Draft has existed in one form or another since 1892, becoming a staple of the offseason even if often overshadowed by bigger winter transactions featuring proven MLB stars.

And yet, the Rule 5 Draft tends to jump into the headlines whenever one of the picks ends up becoming a notable contributor to his new team.  Last year’s draft, for example, was a particularly strong class that saw Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), and Tyler Wells (Orioles) all deliver strong rookie seasons.  Both the modern rules of the draft and the increased focus on prospect value make it less likely that a true superstar minor leaguer will slip through the cracks of the Rule 5, though that doesn’t stop teams from dreaming that just maybe, their next Rule 5 pick will end up being the next Roberto Clemente.

Like clockwork, Clemente’s name is inevitably mentioned every year around Rule 5 time, as the Pirates legend is certainly the most prominent player to ever be selected in the relative modern era of the R5.  (Hall-of-Famers Christy Mathewson and Hack Wilson were also Rule 5 picks, though both players had already debuted in the majors prior to their selection.)  Even in Clemente’s day, the Rule 5 Draft’s procedures were different than they are now, as Clemente was eligible to be selected due to his status as a “bonus baby.”

From 1947 to 1965, MLB had a rule in place stipulating that if any amateur player signed a contract with a bonus greater than $4K, that player had to remain on his team’s big league roster for two full seasons.  If that player wasn’t on his new team’s active roster, he was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

This is exactly what happened to Clemente, signed by the then-Brooklyn Dodgers in February 1954 at age 19.  Signed for a $10K bonus and a $5K salary, that type of money in 1954 alone put Clemente on the radar of other teams, and international scouts were already well aware of Clemente’s potential.  The Braves reportedly offered Clemente a much larger bonus, but he opted to stick with the Dodgers since he had already verbally agreed to their deal.

However, even with all of this known interest in Clemente, the Dodgers didn’t put him on their 25-man roster.  Brooklyn had won the last two National League pennants, and with the team aiming to finally break through and win the World Series, the Dodgers felt they couldn’t afford to have an untested rookie filling a roster spot.  Clemente was instead assigned to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Montreal, as the Dodgers seemingly just crossed their fingers that they could sneak him through the Rule 5 field.

In a 2019 piece for The Athletic, Stephen J. Nesbitt unraveled some of the mythology surrounding Clemente’s brief Dodgers tenure.  The popular version of the story is that Montreal tried to shield Clemente from rival scouts by limiting his playing time and benching him whenever he had a good game, or removing him from the lineup if he had a big hit early in a game.  However, SABR researcher Stew Thornley noted that the right-handed hitting Clemente was almost never deployed against right-handed pitching, so a strict platoon could have been more to blame for Clemente’s lack of playing time than any attempt from the Dodgers to try and “hide” him.

Besides, while Clemente hit only .257/.286/.372 in his 155 plate appearances with Montreal, his raw ability was hard to miss.  (Clemente was also on fire while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico around the time of the R5.)  The Pirates took clear notice, and since they had the first pick of the 1954 Rule 5 Draft, Clemente was quickly Pittsburgh-bound that offseason.  If the Dodgers’ strategy was indeed to just hope that other teams would ignore such a prominent prospect, the bet didn’t pay off.

As Nesbitt notes, longtime Dodgers GM Buzzie Bavasi has told a few different stories in regard to why or how Brooklyn lost Clemente, such as Pirates GM Branch Rickey backing out of a gentleman’s agreement to not take Clemente in the Rule 5 Draft.  In another version, Bavasi claimed the Dodgers signed Clemente solely to keep him away from the arch-rival Giants, and eventually direct him via the R5 to an also-ran team.  Bavasi also said in an e-mail to Thornley in 2005 that Jackie Robinson personally told the front office that adding Clemente to the team and removing a white player from the roster “would be setting our program back five years.”

All of Bavasi’s claims seem to only generate more questions than answers, and yet the end result was still Clemente in a Pirates uniform.  In the short term, losing Clemente didn’t hurt the Dodgers, as the team continued being a perennial contender and won four World Series titles between 1955-65.  As well, Clemente took some time to fully adjust to the majors, hitting a modest .289/.311/.395 with 26 home runs over his first five seasons and 2560 plate appearances with Pittsburgh.

Needless to say, however, Clemente is an awfully big “one that got away.”  One can only imagine how much more successful the Dodgers would have been with Clemente in their lineup, especially after he broke out into true stardom.  From 1960-72, Clemente hit .329/.375/.503 with 214 home runs while playing peerless right field defense and unleashing arguably the best outfield throwing arm in baseball history on many a hapless baserunner.  If Bavasi did count on Clemente being suppressed on a losing team, that plan backfired — the Pirates ended becoming much more competitive during Clemente’s tenure, highlighted by World Series championships in both 1960 and 1971.

It could be that losing Clemente inspired the Dodgers to take a bit more care with their next “bonus baby” player.  The next season, Brooklyn signed another promising youngster to a hefty $14K bonus and stuck with him on the MLB roster for the next two seasons.  Like Clemente, it also took this player some time to become a star, yet the Dodgers’ patience more than paid off as Sandy Koufax started dominating batters.

Clemente’s legend perhaps looms largest on December 31, as it was on this day in 1972 that Clemente and three other passengers died during a plane crash off the coast of Puerto Rico.  The flight was a relief mission intended to bring aid to Nicaragua following an earthquake, and Clemente wanted to personally supervise the delivery to ensure that the goods would reach their intended destination.  Clemente was only 38 years old at the time of his tragic passing.

Tanking Rankings

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It’s December 31st. The calendar is about to flip over to a new year, a time to reflect on the year that was and the year to come. The MLB lockout has also almost reached the one-month mark, giving us all plenty of time to think about the directions of our favourite baseball teams. So, without further ado, here’s a quick, or not-so-quick, overview of where each team is on the competitive spectrum heading into 2022.

In It To Win It

These teams won’t require a ton of explanation. They’ve been competing in recent years and figure to continue on that path. However, as we saw with the Nationals in 2021, teams have the potential to fall out of this section fast.

Angels: The Angels have been trying to win ever since Mike Trout’s debut in 2012, but without much success. Their only playoff appearance in that time was in 2014. Their last season with a winning percentage above .500 was 2015. Before the lockout, they signed four arms, bringing back Raisel Iglesias, as well as adding Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard.

Astros: They’ve made the playoffs five years in a row, including going to the World Series in 2021. Even if they don’t bring Carlos Correa back, they’ll be fine.

Blue Jays: The young core has arrived and the Blue Jays are in it. They made the expanded postseason in 2020 and came just shy in 2021, somehow missing the playoffs in a 91-win season. They’ve already spent some money on Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia this offseason, with more spending reportedly to come after the lockout.

Braves: Four straight years atop the NL East and the reigning World Series champs.

Brewers: Four straight trips to the postseason, including a 2021 that saw them win 95 games and top the NL Central. The retooling of the Cubs and Reds only helps them.

Cardinals: They’ve made the playoffs the past three years and haven’t finished below .500 since 2007. Before the lockout, they spent big to add Steven Matz to their rotation. Just like the Brewers, they’re helped by the retooling of the Cubs and Reds.

Dodgers: One of only two teams to cross the luxury tax barrier in 2021, there’s no question the Dodgers are going for it. They won the NL West eight straight years from 2013 to 2020, winning the World Series at the end of that run. In 2021, they had to settle for a Wild Card spot, thanks to the Giants, but that still made for a ninth straight postseason appearance.

Giants: After four straight losing seasons, the Giants stunned everyone by winning 107 games in 2021. Four-fifths of their starting rotation reached free agency after the season, but they’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, as well as adding Alex Cobb, in order to reload for 2022.

Guardians: Cleveland finished above .500 for eight straight seasons from 2013 to 2020, making the playoffs five times and the World Series once. In 2021, they dropped down to 80-82, largely due to a rash of injuries to their starting rotation. With better health, they should be back over the line in 2022. They also should have some money to spend after the lockout, as their payroll is sitting below $50MM, which is low even for them.

Mariners: They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, but they won 90 games in 2021 and just missed. They’ve already added Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to go for it again in 2022.

Mets: The Mets were in the hunt for much of 2021 but stumbled down the stretch. Since then, they’ve been spending money like crazy to try and assure better results in 2022, including signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar.

Padres: The Padres were one of just two teams to go over the luxury tax line in 2021, along with the Dodgers. Like the Mets, they were in the playoff hunt for most of the year but stumbled down the stretch. Pitching health was a huge factor in their demise, but the return of Mike Clevinger should help them have better depth in 2022. They also added Luis Garcia, Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez to the staff before the lockout. (That last deal is still not official but apparently not in jeopardy.)

Phillies: After a long rebuild, the Phillies signalled they were ready to return to competing when they handed out a mega contract to Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. Since then, however, it’s been three years of treading around .500, going 81-81, 28-32 and 82-80 over the most recent campaigns. They’ve been relatively quiet so far this offseason, with their biggest pre-lockout move being the signing of Corey Knebel.

Rays: Four straight seasons above .500 and three straight postseason appearances, including a 100-win campaign in a stacked AL East in 2021. They just gave a huge extension to Wander Franco, sending a signal that they’re firmly in win-now mode for the foreseeable future.

Red Sox: The shortened 2020 campaign was bad for Boston, but they’ve won at least 84 games in the past five full seasons. In 2021, they won 92 games and made it to the ALCS. Before the lockout, they swapped Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a couple of prospects, as well as signing James Paxton, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill.

White Sox: Despite a history that goes back over a century, the White Sox made the postseason two years in a row for the first time in 2020 and 2021. Although the teams below them are making some gains, they’re still clear favorites in the AL Central.

Yankees: Although they haven’t won the World Series since 2009, which might seem like an eternity to their fans, the Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992.

Creeping Up

These teams have definitely been rebuilding recently but seem like they’ve had enough and are ready to make a jump. They still have to prove it, as nothing is guaranteed in baseball. But the trajectory looks good.

Marlins: The Marlins somehow made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 campaign, but the last time they finished above .500 in a full season was 2009. There’s no questioning it’s been a miserable stretch for the franchise. However, things are starting to look up. They’ve assembled such a bevy of talented young starting pitchers that they’ve already started using it to upgrade other parts of the roster. The first such move was sending Zach Thompson to Pittsburgh in order to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings, and similar moves could follow. They’ve also added Joey Wendle in a trade and opened the pocketbooks to bring in Avisail Garcia. It won’t be an easy climb, given that they’re looking up at the reigning World Series champs and big spenders like the Mets and Phillies, but they’re clearly ready to start getting more aggressive.

Rangers: The Rangers just finished their fifth straight losing season and second straight with a winning percentage below .400. Their 102 losses in 2021 was more than everyone else except for the Orioles and Diamondbacks. However, since then, they have completely flipped the script, spending over half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. They still face stiff competition as they are sharing a division with the Astros, Mariners and Angels, but it’s clear they’ve decided they’re done rebuilding.

Royals: 2021 didn’t go according to plan for the Royals, as they finished 74-88 for a fifth-consecutive losing season. They had attempted to come out of their rebuild by adding players like Mike Minor, Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi to their young core. Unfortunately, several players underperformed and kept the team from pushing forward as far as they hoped. But they’re loaded with young pitchers who still have room to grow, and they should see top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto make their debuts in 2022.

Tigers: It was a fifth-straight losing season for the Tigers, but there were some signs of hope in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Just like the Rangers, the Tigers clearly decided that was enough rebuilding and that it was time to spend. Prior to the lockout, they put cash on the barrel for Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, signaling that they’re making their move.

Twilight Zone

These teams are sort of in-between one option or another for now. After the lockout, things have the potential to move in different directions, with some teams perhaps forced to settle for a mushy middle-ground of not committing firmly to either path.

Athletics: It’s been four straight winning seasons for Oakland, but all signs are pointing towards a step back in 2022. The club let manager Bob Melvin depart for San Diego, seemingly content to get his salary off the books. Then general manager David Forst addressed the issue in November, admitting that they’re willing to field offers for any player on the roster. Although they haven’t hit the rebuild button just yet, it seems likely that the post-lockout era will see them quickly deal away some of their players that are approaching free agency, such as Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman or Frankie Montas. It might not be a lengthy rebuild, as the club has never had more than three consecutive losing seasons in the Billy Beane era. Still, it seems like the tide is pushing against them for now.

Cubs: After spending the past year trading away most of their World Series-winning core, it seemed like the Cubs were diving headfirst into the rebuild zone. However, this offseason has seen them make some surprising additions, as they claimed Wade Miley off waivers and then signed Marcus Stroman, Clint Frazier and Yan Gomes. They’ve definitely weakened themselves with their recent selloff, but they also don’t seem interested in fully bottoming out either.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have one of the cloudier crystal balls in the league. After three straight winning seasons, from 2017 to 2019, they went 25-35 in 2020. But given the small sample size of that season, it was reasonable enough to expect a decent campaign in 2021. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong and they went 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in baseball. Was this just a terrible, fluky nightmare or their true talent level? General manager Mike Hazen doesn’t think they need a full rebuild to get back on track, but they’re still in a tough spot, as the division features the Giants and Dodgers, who each won over 100 games in 2021, as well as a strong Padres team that underperformed and could easily be very good in 2022. So far, the DBacks have been fairly quiet this offseason, with their signing of Mark Melancon being their most noteworthy move. Their post-lockout plan is one of the most difficult to predict at the moment.

Reds: After a lengthy rebuild that saw the Reds post a losing record for six straight seasons from 2014 to 2019, they emerged as competitors in 2020, going 31-29 in the shortened season and qualifying for the expanded playoffs. In 2021, they hung around the Wild Card race all year but eventually came up short, finishing 83-79, a winning record but seven games shy of the postseason. Since then, the tea leaves have been ominous for Cincy fans. First, Tucker Barnhart was traded to Detroit. Then, general manager Nick Krall discussed the trade, saying “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” That was followed by Wade Miley being put on waivers despite a great season in 2021 and a modest $10MM option for 2022. He will now be a division rival, as he was quickly snatched up by the Cubs. Since then, there has been a series of rumors detailing how almost every other team in the league wants to acquire Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Sonny Gray. Although they remain with the Reds for now, it seems the club is going to try and walk a fine line wherein they shed some payroll but stay competitive. It’s hard to subtract from an 83-win team and see them improve, but it seems like that’s what they’re going to try.

Rockies: Perhaps the most confounding team in the league, it’s really tough to figure out what to make of the Rockies. 2021 was their third straight losing season, which should have motivated them to at least make some future-focused moves. Instead, the trade deadline passed without them trading Trevor Story or Jon Gray. After the season, Story received a qualifying offer but Gray did not. The Rangers have since signed Gray, meaning the Rockies have lost him for nothing. Story seems destined to sign elsewhere, which will at least net them an extra draft pick. But we’re looking at a 74-win team has just lost two of its best players and shares a division with strong teams like the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. If they have a plan to return to postseason contention, it’s not apparent from the outside at the moment.

Twins: Minnesota made the playoffs three out of four years, qualifying for the postseason in 2017, 2019 and 2020, winning the AL Central in those latter two seasons. But just about everything went wrong in 2021, with the club finishing in the basement of the division with a record of 73-89. Owner Jim Pohlad has made it clear that they are not going into a rebuild, which they backed up by finally agreeing to an extension with Byron Buxton. However, what’s keeping them in the twilight zone is their rotation. They traded away Jose Berrios, lost Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery and Michael Pineda to free agency. The frenzied free agent market for starting pitching prior to the lockout essentially passed them by. They did sign Dylan Bundy, but he lost his rotation spot for the Angels in 2021 and finished the season with an ERA over 6.00. It’s hard to view your team as a competitor if that’s your ace. There are still some options available after the lockout, but there are lots of holes to be filled there. With the White Sox the clear division favorites and the Guardians, Tigers and Royals all in position to take steps forward in 2022, the Twins will have a difficult time papering over their flaws in the short window between the end of the lockout and the start of the season.

In The Tank

These teams are all focused on the future, with their respective 2022 seasons primarily dedicated to giving playing time to young, unproven players, or perhaps signing veterans to short-term deals with the aim of flipping them for prospects later.

Nationals: The Nationals stand out as an example of how quickly a team can swing from competing to rebuilding. On July 1st, 2021, the club was 40-39, 2 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East, a game and a half ahead of the Braves. They had won the World Series just a year and a half prior, in their eighth consecutive winning season. But after a disastrous stretch in July, they pulled the ripcord and went into full firesale mode, trading away Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison, Brad Hand, Daniel Hudson and Jon Lester. They figure to spend at least a year in the wilderness, giving playing time to younger players to see whether they can be part of the next winning club or not. However, with superstar Juan Soto just three years from free agency, they don’t want this reboot to take too long. Soto’s agent Scott Boras has said he won’t consider an extension until the team proves to him it’s committed to winning.

Orioles: There’s no sugarcoating this one. The Orioles have had a losing record in five straight seasons. In each of the last three full seasons, they lost at least 108 games. They lost 110 games in 2021, tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst in baseball. They are definitely tanking and likely will be for some time. They do have some exciting prospects on the way, headlined by Adley Rutschman, the consensus top prospect in the game. Their system is considered the second best in the league by Baseball America’s Organization Talent Rankings. However, they share a division with four teams that won at least 91 games in 2021. It’s going to take some time for the Orioles to even get mediocre, let alone competitive.

Pirates: The Pirates haven’t won a division title since 1992. After that, they endured a 20-year postseason drought, before qualifying for the Wild Card game in three straight years from 2013 to 2015. They’ve missed the playoffs in the six seasons since. They went 82-79 in 2018 but have had three straight miserable seasons, going 69-93, 19-41 and 61-101 from 2019 to 2021. It’s all about the future now, with the most recent move being Jacob Stallings getting traded to Miami for youngsters. Like the Orioles, the farm system is well regarded, coming in fourth on Baseball America’s rankings. The development of those prospects will determine when they can get out of the basement. General manager Ben Cherington has proven himself adept at this type of rebuild before, but the Pirates have less resources than his previous clubs, the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Coming off their third straight last place season, the Pirates remain squarely amidst a rebuild. It’ll be another quiet winter and likely another poor season at the major league level for Pittsburgh. Yet the burgeoning farm system is finally beginning to offer some long-term hope.

Guaranteed Contracts

Owe $3MM buyout on 2022 club option to Gregory Polanco, who was released in August

Total 2022 commitments: $14MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As expected, the Pirates were one of the worst teams in the National League in 2021. It was the Bucs’ second consecutive season with a win percentage south of .400, and they’re again in line for a top five overall pick in the draft. That’s par for the course for one of the league’s most obvious rebuilders, and it sets the stage for another fairly quiet offseason.

The Pirates have been one of the lower-spending clubs around the league even during years with strong rosters. Pittsburgh entered 2021 with a player payroll estimated just north of $45MM, and their end-of-year expenditure was reportedly the lowest for any MLB team since 2013. Without any path to contention in 2022, it’s unlikely the Pirates push payroll much higher next season, although the complete lack of financial commitments entering the winter gave the front office some freedom for early-offseason moves.

Before the lockout, Pittsburgh made three low-cost big league signings. Southpaw José Quintana inked a $2MM deal and will get another rotation chance after spending the bulk of last season in the bullpen. An All-Star caliber hurler earlier in his career with the White Sox, Quintana hasn’t been especially productive over the past three seasons.

Quintana did miss bats at a career-best rate last year, even as he struggled to a personal-worst 6.43 ERA. That’s at least a bit encouraging, although it came with a corresponding spike in walks. The Bucs have enough rotation uncertainty to afford the veteran some innings in hopes of a bounceback. In an ideal world, Quintana would follow the Tyler Anderson path of posting solid enough production to recoup a mid-tier prospect or two from a contender at next summer’s trade deadline.

Pittsburgh is still in the stages of the rebuild where they’re willing to move players off the big league club for future value. They did just that last month, in fact, sending Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings to the Marlins. The move brought back right-hander Zach Thompson — who has a chance to step right into the rotation after flashing some promise as a rookie — and a pair of prospects, right-hander Kyle Nicolas and outfielder Connor Scott.

Parting with the well-regarded Stallings likely wasn’t an easy call, but this was probably the right time for the Bucs to pull the trigger. Not only is the backstop coming off perhaps the best season of his career, he just turned 32 years old. While the late bloomer remains under club control for three more seasons (barring changes to the service structure in the next CBA), he may not be as productive as he was this past season by the time the Pirates are ready to contend.

The Stallings trade and outright of backup Michael Pérez left the Pirates without a catcher. Yet they quickly turned to free agency to find the solution, signing former Indian Roberto Pérez to a $5MM guarantee. The 33-year-old is coming off a miserable offensive season that got him bought out by Cleveland, but he’s a high-end defender who should work well with the young pitching staff at a non-exorbitant cost. Pérez isn’t a long-term answer, but he’s a perfectly capable veteran stopgap for next season.

Roberto Pérez is the only catcher on the Pittsburgh 40-man roster at the moment, meaning there’ll be more moves coming out of the lockout. Acquisitions will come via low-cost free agency or perhaps the Rule 5 draft, but Pittsburgh will have to select at least one more catcher to the big league club by Opening Day. Michael Pérez remains in the system as non-roster depth and figures to get another look himself in Spring Training.

Moving elsewhere around the diamond, first base is accounted for by the Bucs’ other major league free agent signing thus far. Yoshi Tsutsugo returned on a $4MM deal, and general manager Ben Cherington has already indicated he’s likely to spend the majority of his time at first. Tsutsugo struggled with the Rays and Dodgers after an impressive run in Japan, but he showed signs of life after latching on with the Bucs late in the year.

Tsutsugo hit .268/.347/.535 across 144 plate appearances in black and gold. Can he sustain anywhere near that level of production over a longer run? That remains to be seen, but he impressed the front office enough to earn another look. With Tsutsugo taking over as the club’s top lefty-hitting first baseman, the Pirates moved on from Colin Moran just before the non-tender deadline.

The other corner infield spot belongs to Ke’Bryan Hayes. It was a disappointing 2021 for the 24-year-old Hayes, who entered the season as a favorite for Rookie of the Year after a monster three weeks late in 2020. He suffered a fairly significant wrist injury within the first week of the season, and he never seemed to get on track offensively upon his return. The organization will hope for more than a .257/.316/.373 line from Hayes moving forward, but he’s clearly a key piece of the franchise’s long-term future.

The Bucs’ middle infield is in a bit of flux. All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier was traded away this summer. Kevin Newman, who took the bulk of playing time at shortstop this past season, remains on hand but hit .226/.265/.309 over 554 plate appearances. Newman may open the year at the position, but it shouldn’t be long before top prospect Oneil Cruz is playing shortstop regularly. The 23-year-old was rewarded for a monster Double-A season with a two-game big league cameo to end the year. But he’s only played six Triple-A games, and a season-opening assignment to Indianapolis may be in order.

Cruz is a fascinating prospect, with his massive 6’7″ frame leading to questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. The rebuild affords the Pirates some freedom to evaluate Cruz’s long-term defensive home, as they can live with a few miscues during what’ll be a non-competitive year regardless. Either way, Cruz’s huge power potential from the left-handed batter’s box makes him an intriguing young talent who’ll get plenty of reps against big league pitching in the not too distant future.

Second base is completely up in the air, with Cole Tucker, Hoy Park, Michael Chavis and Newman among the internal options. Everyone in that group underperformed in 2021, though, and none should be a lock for playing time. Free agency offers numerous depth options around the dirt. Old friend Josh Harrison is available, while Hanser Alberto, Ehire Adrianza and Shed Long are among the infielders who could sign minor league deals. Adding some veteran help to the mix — even if just via non-roster pact — could be in order.

There’s also plenty of uncertainty in the outfield, but one player is locked in. Center fielder Bryan Reynolds had an excellent 2021 campaign, hitting .302/.390/.522 over 646 plate appearances. That was his second very strong showing out of three big league seasons, and Reynolds looks to have emerged as the type of cornerstone position player clubs are hoping to find during a rebuild.

There’s surely robust interest from teams around the league in acquiring Reynolds, but it’d be a major surprise if he’s ultimately moved. Pittsburgh reportedly rebuffed huge demand for the left-handed hitter at the deadline, viewing him as a potential anchor of their next competitive club. That won’t stop teams from calling coming out of the lockout, but all indications to this point are that the Pirates don’t have much interest in parting with Reynolds.

The Bucs can control the 26-year-old (27 in January) for another four seasons via the arbitration process. They surely have their sights set on competing within that time frame, and Reynolds isn’t slated to hit free agency until after his age-30 season. It’s justifiable for the front office to just hold onto him via arbitration, then, although the organization would likely have interest in extending their window of club control an additional few seasons if Reynolds is amenable.

As a Super Two player, Reynolds is already in line for his first significant salary this winter. He’s projected to make $4.5MM in 2022, which could lessen his desire to push back his path to free agency for more up-front security. We’ve seen a few extensions for outfielders in this service bucket in the past, but Reynolds’ offensive track record to date far surpasses those of players (Max Kepler, Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte) who have signed this kind of deal.

In all likelihood, a Reynolds extension would probably have to set a new precedent for players in this service class. For a Pirates’ franchise that has never gone beyond $60MM on a guaranteed contract, that kind of deal may not be in the cards. That said, the Pirates don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books beyond next season, so the possibility of committing to Reynolds long-term can’t be ruled out.

Aside from Reynolds, there’s little in the way of locks for outfield playing time. Ben Gamel avoided arbitration and will probably be in the mix. Former top prospect Anthony Alford finished the season on a bit of a hot streak and could get a look. The Bucs grabbed the out-of-options Greg Allen off waivers from the Yankees and will either have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment themselves. Prospects Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba each seem likely to begin the year in Triple-A but could debut within the first few months.

None of Gamel, Alford or Allen should stand in the way of the team looking into upgrades though. Pittsburgh has an estimated $39MM in 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, leaving a few million dollars even before reaching last year’s minuscule mark. The Pirates aren’t going to sign anyone in the Michael Conforto range, but they could look to the free agent outfield market for possible minor league or low-cost MLB deals in the Quintana/Pérez mold.

That’s also true of the rotation, which Cherington has expressed an interest in continuing to address. Quintana has a rotation spot and Thompson likely does as well after being acquired in the Stallings deal. JT Brubaker will probably get another shot. The right-hander allowed far too many home runs en route to a 5.36 ERA last year, but he posted solid strikeout and walk numbers.

Bryse Wilson, acquired from the Braves in last summer’s Richard Rodríguez swap, joins Mitch Keller as former top prospects who may be running out of chances. Both pitchers have strong pedigree but have yet to produce in the big leagues, either from a run prevention or peripherals perspective. Wilson is out of options, so he’ll likely be on the active roster in some capacity. Such players as Max Kranick, Dillon Peters, Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe could be in the mix as depth options at the back end.

Given that collection of generally unestablished names, it’s no surprise Cherington’s open to further additions. The Pirates should be a target destination for reclamation candidates like Vince Velasquez, Zach Davies or Drew Smyly. In addition to the possibility of landing a rotation job, the pitcher-friendly nature of PNC Park could help arms of that ilk who have struggled with home runs in recent seasons.

As is the case for most rebuilding teams, the Pirates don’t have a ton of certainty in the bullpen. David Bednar and Chris Stratton are in line for high-leverage roles, although either could attract trade interest. Duane Underwood Jr. probably did enough in 2021 to earn a season-opening spot, and some members of the rotation depth mix will wind up working in shorter stints as well.

There’s room here, as there is throughout the roster, for some cheap fliers. There’s the possibility of a Rodríguez reunion; the Bucs’ former closer finished the year terribly in Atlanta and was non-tendered after the season. Yet he’s clearly capable of having success in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the front office tried to bring him back. He’s just one of numerous options available, and the Bucs will probably bring in a few relievers on minors deals and/or waiver claims before the start of the season.

The Pirates are perennially hamstrung by payroll limitations, and they’re not going to make any impact splashes this offseason. There’s enough flexibility around the roster that the front office may just have their pick of bounceback/reclamation targets coming out of the lockout. For another season, though, the organization’s most important developments will likely be concentrated on the farm.

Josh Bell Looks Like A Trade Candidate For The Second Straight Offseason

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Last winter, Josh Bell found himself on the move. The Pirates, the only team for which he’d played in his career, were amidst a full rebuild. Bell was down to his final two seasons of arbitration control, and his escalating salaries were accounting for a larger percentage of Pittsburgh’s annually low payrolls.

Bell’s value last winter was complicated by a subpar 2020 showing. While he seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order slugger with a .277/.367/.569 showing the year before, the switch-hitter stumbled during the shortened season. Bell appeared in 57 of the Bucs’ 60 games but he hit only .226/.305/.364 across 223 plate appearances. Of perhaps even greater concern, his strikeout rate spiked from 19.2% to a career-high 26.5%.

In need of a first baseman, the Nationals took a shot on a Bell bounceback. Washington acquired the Texas native for a pair of pitching prospects, Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. While Bell didn’t completely regain his 2019 numbers, that move largely paid off for Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff.

The 29-year-old appeared in 144 games and tallied 568 trips to the plate this past season. His 27 home runs were the second most of his career, trailing only his 37 longballs from 2019. Overall, Bell hit .261/.347/.476, an offensive showing that checked in 18 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

In addition to the improved results, Bell seemingly rediscovered his better process at the dish. He cut his strikeouts back to their typical range, punching out in only 17.8% of his plate appearances (about five points lower than average). His rate of contact on swings rebounded to 77.4% after cratering to 69% during his down year in 2020. Those better bat-to-ball skills came without sacrificing contact authority. Bell’s average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard contact rate (52%) in 2021 were each career bests.

The one alarming aspect of Bell’s batted ball profile that carried over from 2020 was an uptick in ground-balls. While he’d only put 44% of his batted balls on the ground in his 2019 peak season, that spiked to 55.7% in 2020 and checked in at 53.5% this year. So Bell gave back some of the impact of his hard contact by hitting the ball into the turf, explaining why his power numbers didn’t bounce all the way back to 2019 form.

Even still, Bell had a decent season. His numbers were a bit better than the .257/.338/.454 leaguewide mark from first basemen. His 2019 campaign offers a hint of further offensive potential, and Bell had a quietly strong second half. From the All-Star Break onward, he hit .277/.381/.506 with more walks than strikeouts (albeit with a still concerning 55.9% grounder percentage).

That largely went unnoticed, though, because Washington had since fallen out of contention. While the Nats had hoped that a Bell resurgence would be part of a team-wide bounceback that’d keep them competitive in the NL East, things didn’t play out that way. Washington hovered around the periphery of contention for the season’s first few months, but a mid-July swoon kicked off a deadline teardown and organizational reboot.

Bell wasn’t part of that midseason sell-off, but there figures to be a bit more interest around the league after his strong play down the stretch. He’s now entering his final year of club control, and the Nationals don’t seem to have a plausible path to contention next season. It’s not clear Washington wants to entertain a multi-year rebuild — with Juan Soto under club control for three more seasons, there’s not much time to dawdle — but Bell’s ticketed for free agency next winter anyhow. Trading him coming out of the lockout wouldn’t be a sign of a longer-term rebuild so much as a recognition of their unlikely contention status in 2022.

The first base market didn’t move much before the transactions freeze. Freddie Freeman’s status seems to linger over both free agency and trade possibilities. Beyond Freeman, Anthony Rizzo remains on the open market. The A’s seem likely to trade Matt Olson. Perhaps the Yankees will move Luke Voit. Some of those dominoes may have to fall before there’s much progress on a potential Bell trade.

At a projected $10MM arbitration salary, he’s not going to bring back a return as strong as Oakland would get for Olson or New York would recoup for Voit. There’ll be teams in the Freeman/Olson markets who don’t land those stars, though. The upcoming collective bargaining agreement may introduce a universal designated hitter, leaving some National League clubs looking for another bat. Some of those teams figure to see Bell as a viable alternative to the market’s costlier options. Given the Nationals’ current competitive situation, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he’s donning a different uniform for the third straight year come Opening Day.

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Yankees Address Shortstop?

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Entering the offseason, there were few more obvious team/need pairings than the Yankees and shortstop. General manager Brian Cashman frankly stated in October the club “(has) to address” the position over the winter. Yet through the offseason’s first few months, the club hasn’t made a meaningful addition.

At the GM Meetings, Cashman said the Yankees had been in contact with the representatives for two free agent shortstops, later reported to be Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. There’s no indication talks with either player progressed, however, and Seager went on to sign with the Rangers. Correa won’t sign until after the lockout, but multiple reports have since indicated the Yankees would prefer a shorter-term option at the position. Highly-regarded prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe aren’t far off MLB readiness, and the Yankees do have to weigh whether splurging on a shortstop could limit their ability to upgrade the rotation and/or hammer out an extension with Aaron Judge.

If that’s actually the case, that’d rule out Correa and probably Trevor Story, the other All-Star shortstop still remaining in free agency. There’s not a whole lot of interest behind that duo. Andrelton Simmons and José Iglesias would be affordable, but that’s a reflection of the seasons off which they’re each coming. Simmons hit .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins; Iglesias’ production at the plate was acceptable, but he had an uncharacteristically poor year with the glove.

New York could also look into trade possibilities. They’ve already been tied to Rangers shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who might be displaced by Texas’ pre-lockout spending spree. Other potential trade candidates at the position include Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi. The A’s would probably love to move Elvis Andrus, but that’s a challenging endeavor, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

The final possibility is to rely on the in-house options. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would be the presumptive regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres got kicked over to second base late last season, and the Yankees probably wouldn’t want him bouncing back and forth between the two middle infield spots. But someone like non-roster invitee José Peraza could crack the roster in a reserve capacity behind Urshela. That wouldn’t be ideal from a defensive standpoint and certainly isn’t what the Yankees had in mind entering the offseason, but Urshela would likely offer more at the plate than any of the stopgap options mentioned and wouldn’t come at any additional financial or trade cost.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership. If you were in the front office’s shoes, how would you handle the shortstop situation in the Bronx?

(poll link for app users)

 

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