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Comparing Each Team’s Current Payroll To Previous Spending

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The MLB and MLBPA will be returning to the bargaining table tomorrow, in order to hopefully begin the process of thawing the MLB landscape, which has remained quite frosty for over a month now. While this is surely welcome news for the baseball world, it doesn’t seem like the end of the lockout is imminent. At this point, with the scheduled start of spring training about a month away, there’s no avoiding a scenario with a quick turnaround between the conclusion of the lockout and the resumption of baseball activities. It’s been deduced by many that this will surely lead to a period of frenzied hot stove activity, as there are still a great number of free agents to be signed, as well as trades to be made, as teams look to set their rosters before the season begins in earnest.

Once that happens, some teams will surely be more active than others, depending on their respective circumstances. Front office members are typically cagy in public about what sort of payroll parameters they are working within, for sensible reasons. When negotiating with a player’s agent, for instance, it’s harder to make it seem as though you have little wiggle room if you’ve publicly boasted about having millions of dollars at your disposal. That makes it impossible for us to know exactly how much money is remaining in each team’s piggy bank, but we can at least make inferences by looking at precedents.

It’s not a guarantee that a team will stick to their previous habits, of course, as we’ve seen with the spending spree from the Mets this year. Some teams may intentionally be taking a step back to rebuild and won’t be spending to previous levels. There’s also the fact that many teams may be waiting to see how the luxury tax tiers are affected by the next CBA. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco covered that issue in greater detail here.) However, there are some broadly predictable patterns as to which teams are usually big spenders and which are usually low spenders.

Without further ado, here’s a quick shorthand version of where each team is at, comparing their projected 2022 Opening Day payroll to their previous record outlay for Opening Day. The following numbers are actual dollars, not luxury tax calculations. (2022 projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Payrolls from previous years from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

  • Angels: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $172MM, previous high was $182MM in 2021.)
  • Astros: $18MM under. (Current projected payroll of $170MM, previous high was $188MM in 2021.)
  • Athletics: $7MM under. (Current projected payroll of $85MM, previous high was $92MM in 2019.)
  • Blue Jays: $23MM under. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $163MM in 2017.)
  • Braves: $9MM over. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $131MM in 2021.)
  • Brewers: $2MM under. (Current projected payroll of $121MM, previous high was $123MM in 2019.)
  • Cardinals: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $150MM, previous high was $164MM in 2021.)
  • Cubs: $89MM under. (Current projected payroll of $114MM, previous high was $203MM in 2019.)
  • Diamondbacks: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $132MM in 2018.)
  • Dodgers: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $227MM, previous high was $272MM in 2015.)
  • Giants: $75MM under. (Current projected payroll of $126MM, previous high was $201MM in 2018.)
  • Guardians: $86MM under.  (Current projected payroll of $49MM, previous high was $135MM in 2018.)
  • Mariners: $71MM under. (Current projected payroll of $87MM, previous high was $158MM in 2018.)
  • Marlins: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $69MM, previous high was $115MM in 2017.)
  • Mets: $68MM over. (Current projected payroll of $263MM, previous high was $195MM in 2021.)
  • Nationals: $79MM under. (Current projected payroll of $118MM, previous high was $197MM in 2019.)
  • Orioles: $103MM under. (Current projected payroll of $61MM, previous high was $164MM in 2017.)
  • Padres: $25MM over. (Current projected payroll of $199MM, previous high was $174MM in 2021.)
  • Phillies: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $181MM, previous high was $191MM in 2021.)
  • Pirates: $61MM under. (Current projected payroll of $39MM, previous high was $100MM in 2016.)
  • Rangers: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $127MM, previous high was $165MM in 2017.)
  • Rays: $7MM over. (Current projected payroll of $84MM, previous high was $77MM in 2014.)
  • Red Sox: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $191MM, previous high was $236MM in 2019.)
  • Reds: $12MM under. (Current projected payroll of $115MM, previous high was $127MM in 2019.)
  • Rockies: $41MM under. (Current projected payroll of $104MM, previous high was $145MM in 2019.)
  • Royals: $57MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $143MM in 2017.)
  • Tigers: $83MM under. (Current projected payroll of $117MM, previous high was $200MM in 2017.)
  • Twins: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $91MM, previous high was $129MM in 2019.)
  • White Sox: $51MM over. (Current projected payroll of $180MM, previous high was $129MM in 2021.)
  • Yankees: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $214MM, previous high was $228MM in 2013.)

How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

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23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Which Teams Are Most Likely To Acquire Matt Olson?

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The A’s are generally expected to make a few marquee players available after the lockout in an effort to trim payroll. If Oakland does embark on something of an organizational reboot, Matt Olson seems one of the likelier players to wind up elsewhere. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, Olson might be the costliest player on the A’s books.

Trading Olson is the most straightforward way to reduce payroll, but he’d still be in plenty of demand around the league. A $12MM salary is well below market value for a two-time Gold Glove winning first baseman coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that earned him an eighth-place finish in AL MVP balloting. And with another season of below-market club control remaining thereafter (barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement), landing Olson would probably require sending multiple highly-regarded young players back to Oakland.

Which teams are in the best position to pull off the blockbuster if the A’s make Olson available? Before looking at the best fits, we can remove a few teams from consideration. The Pirates, Orioles and Diamondbacks aren’t in the competitive window to trade for a player with two years of control. The same is probably true of the Nationals and Cubs, barring an unexpected post-lockout push for immediate contention. The Rays’ projected 2022 payroll is already $18MM higher than last year’s season-opening mark. They’re probably not taking on a $12MM salary this winter; the Reds have spent all offseason signaling a desire to cut spending.

Which teams seem to be the most plausible landing spots?

Best Fits For A Deal

  • Braves — Are the Braves finally going to end their stalemate with Freddie Freeman after the lockout? If he signs somewhere else, they’ll need a first baseman. Olson is reportedly on their radar as a possible replacement.
  • Brewers — The Brewers have a championship-caliber pitching staff, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. Rowdy Tellez was alright after coming over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade, but his career track record is mixed. Olson would be a definitive upgrade, and Tellez could stick around as a possible designated hitter option if the universal DH is included in the next CBA. The question is whether Milwaukee — currently projected for a payroll around $20MM north of last season’s Opening Day mark — would take on a salary in this range, but he’s a perfect fit for the roster.
  • Giants — The Giants are only a strong fit in the event of a universal DH. Otherwise, first base belongs to Brandon Belt. If there’s an NL DH, acquiring Olson from their crosstown rivals and giving Belt more time at DH would be a boon to an already excellent offense, and it might help the 33-year-old Belt stay healthy all season.
  • Mariners — The Mariners are known to be looking for another bat. Acquiring Olson and pushing Ty France to DH would fill that void, and Seattle has the payroll space to accommodate such a move. The potential holdup? Seattle’s loath to part with their top prospects, and that might be especially true in an intra-divisional trade.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have looked into the possibility of an Olson deal. They’ve been ultra-aggressive this winter but still look to be shy of 2022 contention. Landing Olson and pushing Nathaniel Lowe to DH would complete perhaps the sport’s top infield, although there’d still be major question marks about the pitching staff. As with Seattle, there are possible intra-divisional trade complications to consider.
  • Twins — The Twins have been quieter than expected this winter. They should have payroll flexibility, though, and Miguel Sanó isn’t coming off a great season. Upgrading the rotation seems like the priority in Minnesota, but the free agent starting pitching market has been largely picked clean. Might they pivot and add to an already-strong offense to try to compensate for the lackluster starting staff?
  • Yankees — The Yankees have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for much of the winter, with good reason. Luke Voit dealt with a series of injuries last season, and the Yankees seemed sufficiently discouraged with his health outlook to land Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline. Rizzo’s now a free agent, and while New York could opt to roll with Voit again, there’s little question Olson would at least be a marked defensive upgrade.

Plausible But Longer Odds

  • Dodgers — One can seemingly never rule the Dodgers out on stars. But this probably requires an NL designated hitter to pull off, given the presences of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux between first and second base.
  • Guardians — A $12MM salary might wind up being too hefty for the Guardians. Yet they only have $11MM in guaranteed money on the books this year, with an estimated $49MM in commitments after accounting for arbitration projections. This is a franchise that has exceeded nine figures in the past, and incumbent first baseman Bobby Bradley struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances last year.
  • Marlins — The Marlins could supplant Jesús Aguilar at first, and Olson would be a massive upgrade to a lineup that struggled in 2021. Miami has plenty of young pitching that might appeal to Oakland. The Fish seem more focused on outfield help, but an Olson trade makes some sense if they pivot back to the dirt.
  • Padres — The Padres tend to act boldly, and they could stand to upgrade over Eric Hosmer. With a projected payroll approaching $200MM, it’s not clear how much further ownership’s willing to spend. Landing Olson might require first shedding the bulk of Hosmer’s contract in a separate trade, but that’d require parting with some prospect talent even before considering the package of young players San Diego would need to send to Oakland.
  • Phillies — An NL DH could theoretically bring Olson into play, with Rhys Hoskins assuming the bat-only role. Shortstop, third base, two outfield spots and the bullpen are all arguably bigger concerns for Philadelphia though.
  • Red Sox — The Red Sox could supplant Bobby Dalbec at first base this year. With J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency next winter, top prospect Triston Casas could break in as a DH in 2023. Yet with clearer needs in the bullpen and either at second base or in the outfield, Olson to Boston feels like a longshot.

Teams With More Pressing Needs

  • Angels — Jared Walsh broke out with an All-Star campaign in 2021 and should have first base accounted for. Designated hitter? That’s occupied by the reigning AL MVP.
  • Astros — Yuli Gurriel is back at first base after winning the batting title. Yordan Álvarez is locked in at DH.
  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have the reigning MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at first base. It’s unlikely they’d want Guerrero to become a full-time DH this early in his career. One could argue for Toronto acquiring Olson and kicking Guerrero back to third base, but it’s probably best to leave the young star at first and try to upgrade the other infield spots more directly.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and some young options (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez) for the possible DH spot.
  • Mets — The Mets have Pete Alonso at first and a number of offense-minded players already on the roster who could step into a DH role if needed.
  • Rockies — The Rockies just extended C.J. Cron. If the new CBA contains a universal DH, could they acquire Olson and take Cron off defense? That seems far-fetched, even for a Colorado team that views itself closer to contention than most outside observers would.
  • Royals — The Royals seem to be prioritizing bullpen help. They’d probably like to move Carlos Santana, but top prospect Nick Pratto could step in at first base in the unlikely event they find a Santana suitor.
  • Tigers — Miguel Cabrera is still around for two more years at DH, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson is on the doorstep of taking over first base.
  • White Sox — The White Sox are already at a franchise-record projected payroll and have José Abreu and Andrew Vaughn to cover first base/DH.

Payroll projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource

What does the MLBTR readership think?

(poll link for app users)

 

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Strongest Seasons?

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As teams plan out their post-lockout needs, most are probably looking to the bullpen as an area that could use further help. With the number of relievers clubs deploy throughout a season, essentially all of them could be well-served to stockpile depth in the middle innings.

The most straightforward path to doing that is via free agency, and there are still a number of options from which to choose. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 58 available arms who tossed at least 20 innings of relief last season. Some, like longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, are notable enough to command a significant multi-year guarantee. Many others figure to settle for one-year deals with a low base salary or perhaps minor league contracts with a Spring Training invite.

Who should be priority targets coming out of the transactions freeze? As we did with rotation options last week, we’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2021 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2021 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 4.17)

  1. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 1.83
  2. Collin McHugh (RHP), 1.90
  3. Jimmy Nelson (RHP), 1.98*
  4. Jesse Chavez (RHP), 2.03
  5. Kenley Jansen (RHP), 2.22
  6. Juan Minaya (RHP), 2.48
  7. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 2.61
  8. Ryan Tepera (RHP), 2.79
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 2.82
  10. Joe Kelly (RHP), 2.86

Strikeout Rate (league average — 24%)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 38%
  2. Heath Hembree (RHP), 34.2%
  3. Jake Diekman (LHP), 31.7%
  4. Brad Boxberger (RHP), 31.2%
  5. Kenley Jansen, 30.9%
  6. Ryan Tepera, 30.8%
  7. Collin McHugh, 30.1%
  8. Jesse Chavez, 29.5%
  9. Ross Detwiler, 28.2%
  10. Jeurys Familia (RHP), 27.5%

Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.2 percentage points)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 27.8 points
  2. Collin McHugh, 24.8 points
  3. Heath Hembree, 24.3 points
  4. Ryan Tepera, 22.9 points
  5. Jesse Chavez, 21.9 points
  6. Brad Boxberger, 21.8 points
  7. Ian Kennedy (RHP), 19.7 points
  8. Joe Kelly, 19.2 points
  9. Ross Detwiler, 19.1 points
  10. Jake Diekman, 18.7 points

Ground-ball Rate (league average — 43.1%)

  1. Joe Kelly, 58.9%
  2. Brandon Kintzler (RHP), 58.5%
  3. Archie Bradley (RHP), 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 53.7%
  5. Juan Minaya, 53%
  6. Alex Claudio (LHP), 52%
  7. Jeurys Familia, 51%
  8. Steve Cishek (RHP), 49.7%
  9. Edgar Santana (RHP), 49.6%
  10. Robert Gsellman (RHP), 49.4%

FIP (league average — 4.17)

  1. Jesse Chavez, 1.75
  2. Jimmy Nelson, 1.82
  3. Collin McHugh, 2.29
  4. Ryan Tepera, 2.73
  5. Andrew Chafin, 2.98
  6. Joe Kelly, 3.08
  7. Kenley Jansen, 3.08
  8. Ross Detwiler, 3.28
  9. Conner Greene (RHP), 3.46
  10. Chris Martin (RHP), 3.47

Innings Pitched

  1. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP), 78
  2. Hansel Robles (RHP), 69
  3. Kenley Jansen, 69
  4. Andrew Chafin, 68 2/3
  5. Steve Cishek, 68 1/3
  6. Alex Colomé, 65
  7. Brad Hand, 64 2/3
  8. Brad Boxberger, 64 2/3
  9. Richard Rodríguez (RHP), 64 1/3
  10. Adam Ottavino (RHP), 62

* Nelson underwent season-ending elbow surgery last August; his health status for 2022 remains unclear.

Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?

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Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.

Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.

Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.

Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.

Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.

Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.

With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets have already been one of the league’s most active teams this offseason. They’ve replaced their manager, added a new baseball operations leader and embarked upon a huge spending spree to land the market’s top center fielder and starting pitcher. They probably won’t make quite as many headlines coming out of the lockout, but with seemingly limitless financial resources and an obvious desire to improve, they can’t be ruled out of almost anything.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $341MM through 2031
  • Max Scherzer, RHP: $130MM through 2024
  • Starling Marte, CF: $78MM through 2025
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP: $72MM through 2023 (deal contains a $32.5MM club option for 2024; deGrom can opt out of final year and $34.5MM after 2022)
  • Robinson Canó, 2B: $48MM through 2023
  • James McCann, C: $32.45MM through 2024
  • Mark Canha, LF: $26.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Eduardo Escobar, 3B: $20MM through 2023 (including $500K buyout on $9.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $15MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout on $14MM vesting/club option for 2023)
  • Taijuan Walker, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (Walker can opt out of final year and $3MM after 2022)
  • Trevor May, RHP: $7.75MM through 2022

Total 2022 commitments: $215.8MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Both Mets and Kevin Pillar declined their ends of two-tiered option; paid $1.4MM buyout in lieu of $6.4MM club option or $2.9MM player option

Free Agents

The Mets entered the winter knowing they’d be on the hunt for a new baseball operations leader, and a managerial vacancy followed in the opening days of the offseason. New York declined their 2022 option on Luis Rojas, ending his time in the role after two seasons.

The first few weeks of the offseason were fairly quiet on the transactions front as the Mets prioritized putting a new front office leader in place. New York inquired about such notable names as Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and David Stearns as part of a highly-public search. They missed out on those marquee names, but New York did eventually settle on a baseball ops head with previous experience leading a front office. In mid-November, the Mets finalized a four-year deal with former Angels general manager Billy Eppler to take on that role in Queens.

Eppler took over a club facing plenty of turnover. Starters Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were hitting free agency, as were longtime outfielder Michael Conforto and deadline pickup Javier Báez. It now seems like all four of those players are going to be playing elsewhere next season. Syndergaard and Conforto rejected qualifying offers. (Stroman and Báez were each ineligible for QO’s but surely would’ve declined themselves). The two starters signed with other clubs before the lockout, as did Báez. Conforto remains a free agent, but the Mets other moves this offseason (more on those in a minute) suggest the club has probably moved on.

With two departing starters, New York made a run at Steven Matz. The southpaw, whom the Mets had traded away last offseason, hit free agency coming off a solid year with the Blue Jays. New York was one of a few clubs with notable interest in Matz, but the 30-year-old inked a four-year contract with the Cardinals. That didn’t sit well with owner Steve Cohen, who apparently felt the Mets were denied an opportunity to match St. Louis’ $44MM offer.

The Mets didn’t have much time to dwell on the result of the Matz negotiations, though. With the lockout approaching, the free agent market picked up quite a bit of steam in late November. With Eppler in place, New York was in position to partake in that extravaganza, and the team dove in headfirst. The Mets first free agent pickup — veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee — was a solid but not overly splashy pickup.

It didn’t take long for more headline-grabbing news to follow. Corner outfielder Mark Canha agreed to terms on a two-year deal just a few hours later. And to top off one of the most active evenings by any team in recent memory, New York signed free agency’s only star center fielder. Starling Marte landed a four-year deal with a $78MM guarantee, the largest free agent contract signed by any player this offseason up to that point.

Within a few hours, the Mets fundamentally revamped their lineup. Marte and Canha stepped into the outfield, likely pushing Brandon Nimmo from center field to a corner spot. Escobar stabilized an uncertain second/third base mix, as the club was soon to see Báez land in Detroit. That initial spree didn’t address the potential Syndergaard/Stroman departures, but New York had their highest-impact pickup of all looming on the horizon.

That, of course, proved to be the signing of future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner landed a three-year, $130MM deal that’s likely to be the largest commitment to any free agent pitcher this winter. It was always expected Scherzer would land a record-setting average annual value, but the extent of the Mets commitment even surpassed most pre-offseason projections.

That few days was the kind Mets fans had dreamed of when Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last winter. New York entered the lockout with a projected $263MM in player investments next season, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s the highest in MLB by a mile, and the Mets look likely to handily exceed whatever luxury tax thresholds are set in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.

The transactions freeze brought the Mets player acquisitions to a halt, but it didn’t mark the end of the club’s key offseason dealings. With the lockout looming, the Mets focused on adding to the roster in the intervening weeks between Eppler’s hiring and the December 1 expiration of the previous CBA. Once the league barred player movement, the club returned to their manager position, which had sat vacant for around three months.

According to reports, New York met with six candidates as part of that search. Longtime skipper Buck Showalter was cast as the favorite fairly early in the process, though, and his ultimate hiring proved wholly unsurprising. In contrast to the club’s past few hires — Mickey Callaway, Carlos Beltrán (very briefly) and Rojas — Showalter brings decades of experience to the position. He’ll oversee a star-studded clubhouse, leading a franchise that’ll enter the season with massive aspirations.

With so much in the rearview mirror, what’s left for the Mets after the lockout? Paradoxically, one could argue the club’s immense volume of activity makes their next steps either easier or tougher to project. On the one hand, they’ve done so much that the roster’s strengths and deficiencies are fairly clear. Yet the organization is already operating in uncharted waters from a payroll perspective, leaving little indication for outside observers how much further Cohen and the front office could be prepared to go.

Where might Alderson and Eppler devote their attention after the transactions freeze? The Nimmo – Marte – Canha grouping in the outfield is impressive enough that any further pickups will probably be of the depth variety. It looks all but inevitable that Conforto will depart, and the Mets will pick up another draft choice (they also received one after Syndergaard signed with the Angels) as compensation.

There’s plenty of depth around the infield as well. Francisco Lindor is the shortstop, and Pete Alonso is at first base. How exactly Showalter will divvy up the playing time between second and third base remains to be seen, but there are plenty of options on hand. Jeff McNeil is probably best suited for playing time at the keystone, but Robinson Canó is set to return to the organization after a year-long PED suspension. Escobar can player either position, while J.D. Davis is an option at the hot corner (even if he’s better suited at first base or designated hitter). Utilityman Luis Guillorme can back up all around the infield, including at shortstop.

The likely addition of the DH to the National League might alleviate that logjam a bit, but there’s also the presence of first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith to consider. Committing to anyone at DH might leave a deserving player without regular at-bats, and it looks likely at least one notable name is traded away before the start of the season. Recent reports have suggested a McNeil or Smith deal may be the most probable, but Davis has long been speculated upon as a trade candidate himself — so much so that he guessed his chances of opening next season in Queens were “kind of 50/50” even before New York’s spending spree.

If the Mets were to deal one of those players, it seems likely they’d target pitching help in return. No one around the league can match New York’s best two arms, with Scherzer and Jacob deGrom a potentially dominating pairing at the top. There’s a lot of uncertainty behind that duo, though.

Carlos Carrasco is usually very effective when healthy, but he was limited to twelve starts last year by various injuries and underwent postseason surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow. He’s not expected to miss much more than a bit of Spring Training action, but it’s the latest in a rather significant injury history for the 34-year-old. Taijuan Walker stayed healthy last season, but he followed up an All-Star first half with a 7.13 ERA/6.79 FIP after the Break. David Peterson struggled and battled oblique and foot injuries last season. Tylor Megill showed promising strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a lot of hard contact when batters did put the ball in play.

At least adding some sort of stabilizing back-of-the-rotation presence would seem to be a priority. The Reds and A’s are expected to make some higher-impact arms available via trade, and other teams like the Marlins and Brewers might have enough pitching depth to consider dealing a back-end guy for offensive help.

As is the case with virtually every contender, the Mets could probably stand to add a reliever or two. Last year’s bullpen was a top ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential. But Aaron Loup has already departed, and Jeurys Familia (in whom the Mets apparently have some interest in re-signing) and midseason pickups Heath Hembree and Brad Hand all hit free agency.

Edwin Díaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo make for a quality back-end trio, but adding some middle relief help makes sense. That’s particularly true from the left side, as the Mets don’t have a single southpaw in their projected Opening Day bullpen. Andrew Chafin, Tony Watson and Jake Diekman stand out as the top free agent lefty relievers still available. New York has also been tied to Twins closer Taylor Rogers, who could be attainable in trade.

Catcher stands out as one other potential weak point on the roster. The Mets hoped they’d solidified the position by signing James McCann to a four-year deal last offseason. The veteran was coming off a strong two-year run with the White Sox, but his numbers on both sides of the ball went backwards during his first season in Queens. Without many obvious alternatives available in free agency or trade, the Mets may have to primarily rely on a McCann bounceback, but they could look to replace Tomás Nido as a backup.

It’s certainly possible the Mets biggest activity of the winter is already behind them. Two of the best pitchers in recent memory are in place at the top of the rotation. There’s plenty of star power at the back of the bullpen. The outfield has already been completely remade, and there’s enough depth around the infield that trading away a player or two looks likely.

It’d be justifiable for the front office to view the core as already being in place and to now turn their attention to smaller pickups at the back of the roster. Yet after their November flurry of activity, it’s hard to count the Mets out on anyone. Would ownership push the payroll beyond $300MM for the right player? That’s impossible to tell, since there’s no spending history with Cohen on which to draw. Over the past few years, big-market behemoths like the Dodgers have continued to land star talent even in the absence of a true team “need.” It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Mets take the same approach.

One factor the Mets have to consider whenever major league free agency begins again: the qualifying offer. New York declined to sign first-round pick Kumar Rocker last summer, entitling them to a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. Yet because that compensation pick (#11 overall) is higher than the Mets original choice (#14 overall), they’d forfeit their second pick of the first round were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a QO.

That could deter a pursuit of someone like Trevor Story or Nick Castellanos, but there are a few marquee free agents who didn’t receive a QO. Carlos Rodón might be the top starting pitcher still available and wasn’t tagged by the White Sox; deadline target Kris Bryant, ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade, is unsigned; NPB star Seiya Suzuki is going through the posting process and wouldn’t cost a pick. The Mets probably don’t need to make another splash, but if ownership is willing to keep spending, the front office could explore their options.

It’s been another eventful winter in Queens. The Mets again have new leadership, both atop the front office and in the manager’s chair. They’re flexing financial muscle the likes of which previous ownership never seemed to consider. They’ve landed a couple more stars, and even if the remainder of the offseason involves adjustments on the margins of the roster, expectations will be as high as ever. It has been five years since the Mets last postseason appearance. If the streak reaches six, it’d go down as the club’s biggest disappointment yet.

Seven Years And Counting For The Orioles Rotation

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Though the Giants have made putting together a starting rotation look easy, most teams struggling to contend know how complex a process building a competent pitching staff can be. Bullpens are fickle, so consistency in run prevention is best guaranteed with a reliable rotation.

The Baltimore Orioles know the challenge better than most. The rotation at Camden Yards finished 26th in 2021 by measure of fWAR, but last with a 5.99 ERA and 5.41 FIP. In fact, their rotation has finished in the bottom-10 by ERA AND FIP in every season since 2014. That’s a pretty remarkable run of incompetence. It’s almost impressive, especially considering they were able to overcome those subpar rotations to make the playoffs in 2016 and finish .500 in 2015.

The Orioles invested in their rotation this offseason for the first time in GM Mike Elias’ tenure. Small as that investment was (they signed Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a team option for a second season), it’s a step in the right direction. Lyles alone isn’t going to keep the Orioles from an 8th consecutive season with a bottom-10 rotation. He made 30 starts in 2021 and finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR, after all. But he also tossed 180 innings, which makes a difference in saving a bullpen and providing enough breathing room for young rotation arms to thrive.

Forget productivity for a moment. The Orioles rotation will have a watchable rotation if and when D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves in the Majors. That duo is likely to start next season in Triple-A, but they’re close. When they arrive, there’s going to be some honest-to-god excitement around Baltimore’s rotation. That duo probably won’t have a full season in the bigs until 2023, however.

There’s at least one more season of fungible, fill-in-the-blanks taking the bump in Baltimore. Just because the big-name prospects aren’t set to arrive doesn’t mean there’s no progress to be made this season. After all, with Lyles and presumptive ace John Means, they’re in a better place than usual.

Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com went through each of their internal candidates to fill out the rotation behind Means and Lyles. Dubroff lists Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann as the incumbent candidates, with Zimmermann as the most accomplished of the group, even if he was most successful as a long man out of the pen.

The other way to build out the rotation, of course, is through free agency. The Orioles aren’t probably going to spend any more than they already have in terms of a one-year salary, but for free agents at the bottom of the hierarchy, Baltimore offers more opportunity than most other rotations around the game. Matt Harvey is the mold, a former star looking to rehabilitate his image.

Harvey posted 1.9 fWAR but only a 6.27 ERA, but he did make 28 starts and toss 127 2/3 innings in 2021. A 4.60 FIP suggests Harvey might have something left in the tank. Besides, amazing though this is, Harvey’s 2021 ranks as the 13th-best output by fWAR during this seven-year run of Orioles’ bottom-feeding. There simply hasn’t been much success of any kind, even the tempered brand of success offered by Harvey in 2021.

Unfortunately for Baltimore, most teams looking for mid-season upgrades have higher standards than the Orioles. Their goal for 2022 should be to add arms that might actually be flippable at the deadline. Lyles qualifies, even if his numbers from last season aren’t all that inspiring.

Other names that might be available to Baltimore are Jose Urena, Mike Fiers, Aaron Sanchez, and/or Mike Foltynewicz. Guys with slightly more upside, say, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Chad Kuhl, or Steven Brault might cost a little more than Baltimore wants to spend. Carlos Martinez or Matthew Boyd might present the highest upside, either in terms of their current ability or their eventual trade value, but even those arms are higher up the totem pole than Baltimore has ventured in years past.

What could change that calculus is a trade of Means. There’s not a real high likelihood that Baltimore wants to move Means at this juncture, but if it means selling high on the southpaw, they might consider it. There are enough teams in need of pitching to make Baltimore listen to pitches. If they do move the 28-year-old, they’d probably be better off in the long run, but it all but guarantees another disastrous finish for their starting staff in 2022.

Frankly, Means isn’t unique enough of a talent to hold onto, should the prospect return be right. But teams also haven’t been eager to move prospects of value recently. The longer they hold onto Means, the more his salary will rise, and the lesser of a trade piece he becomes.

Then again, teams generally aren’t as desperate in the offseason because there are more options available and more margin for error with a full season ahead. If they hold onto Means to start the year, he will still have a year plus of team control at the deadline, and that might be just the right calculus to make a deal happen.

It’s not hard to blame the Orioles for holding onto Means. Prospects aren’t a sure thing. Kevin Gausman had the best season by fWAR (2016) of any Baltimore starter in this current era, and when they traded him, Zimmermann was a big part of the return. So it’s not as if trading off their starters has yielded the path to a turnaround.

The rub here is that GM Mike Elias has yet to actually try to build a winning rotation. His goal since his arrival has been to build a long-term competitive engine, a process that’s still very much in the works. So they can sign more free agents, and they can trade Means or hold onto him, but until Elias is willing to really give it a go, expect Baltimore’s rotation to stay in the bottom 10.

MLBTR Poll: Trevor Story’s Contract

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Earlier this week, we took a look at which teams seemed like the best suitors for Trevor Story once the transactions freeze concludes. Today, we’ll focus on what kind of contract Story can expect to land.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked the former Rockies star as the game’s #8 free agent. During those deliberations, Story proved one of the tougher players to value. While Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and myself ultimately landed on a six-year, $126MM projected contract, there were few players with a wider range of possibilities.

That’s largely because Story hit the market coming off his worst offensive showing in four years. He was a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter between 2018-20, though, and that 2021 downturn was attributable mostly to a poor first half. Story got off to a tough start to the year, including a few weeks on the injured list owing to right elbow inflammation. Yet over the season’s final couple months, his offensive production landed right in line with peak levels.

As is the case with essentially all Rockies hitters, Story produced far better at home than he did on the road. A signing team can expect his road performance to improve once he leaves Colorado, though, since there’s been a fair bit of research suggesting Rockies hitters are adversely disadvantaged on the road — likely due to pitches moving slightly differently at sea level than they do at altitude. It’s perhaps more alarming that Story’s numbers against right-handed pitching have tailed off a bit over the past couple seasons.

He’s a similarly tricky player to value defensively. Public metrics are split on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Story as an excellent shortstop every year of his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was quite bearish on his 2021 performance. There’s little concern about his range, but he has had some issues with throwing errors — to the point that some scouts reportedly believe Story’s a better fit at second base than shortstop.

Projecting Story’s long-term performance is tricky enough, but his market’s influenced by the stacked free agent class of middle infielders. Story wasn’t going to compete with Carlos Correa or Corey Seager at the top of the class. He’s almost two years older than both players and coming off less impressive years. Yet slotting him in among the remaining star free agent shortstops was more challenging.

Ultimately, we placed Story between Marcus Semien and Javier Báez in projected earning power. Semien was projected for a six-year, $138MM deal; Báez landed a five-year, $100MM estimate. Both of those players have already signed, and they each surpassed those expectations. The Rangers landed Semien for $175MM over seven years; Báez got six years and $140MM from the Tigers. Is that an indication that Story could also be looking at a loftier than anticipated deal?

What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Story’s eventual guarantee wind up?

(poll link for app users)

 

Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman

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Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension.  The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.

Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic.  Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut.  This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.

Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher.  Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues.  Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.

The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career.  Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021.  The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).

An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers.  However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site.  Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.)  Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.

In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure.  The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status.  Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.

For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple.  Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors?  The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.

From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft.  This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.

The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position.  No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop.  Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.

Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher.  From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help).  Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market.  He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.

So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway.  It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.

Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number.  Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays.  However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level.  While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.

Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman.  But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.

Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold.  Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.

A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise.  Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet.  However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.

What You Thought Was The Most Questionable December Deal Five Years Ago

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While news of minor league deals, international signings, and coaching hires continue to trickle in, much of the baseball fandom has stayed engaged thanks to one thing: speculation. For weeks, fans and writers have used what information they can gather during MLB’s lockout to predict what the next CBA will look like, which free agents will sign where, and who is going to draw the most trade buzz. With little in the way of breaking news many of us have shifted gears towards thinking about the future, though now seems as optimal a time as any to reflect on the past.

Five years ago in December 2016, the baseball hot stove was cranked all the way up. Outside of one day in the beginning of the month, it’s easy to hail 2016’s closing month as more consistently action-packed with baseball news than the December we just experienced. In fact, December of 2016 was so rife with moves that MLBTR crafted a poll, titled “Dubious December Decisions“, asking readers which recent move they found to be the most questionable.

Several contentious baseball moves were made five Decembers ago, but for the poll’s sake we zeroed in on three: The Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton, in which they surrendered then-prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning; the Rockies’ decision to sign outfielder/shortstop Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70MM deal and play him at first base, forfeiting the 11th overall pick in the amateur draft; and the Yankees’ decision to sign Aroldis Chapman to a record 5-year, $86MM deal.

Nearly 15,000 people voted in this 2016 poll and ranked the moves as follows, with higher vote percentages representing the most skepticism:

  • Adam Eaton to Nationals (50%)
  • Ian Desmond to Rockies (32.2%)
  • Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (13.1%)
  • Other (3.6%)

The Eaton deal proved far and away the most head-scratching by voters, who questioned why the Nationals would surrender some of their best prospects for a right fielder when a certain Bryce Harper already had the position covered.  Advocates of the deal on the Nationals side were quick to point out that Giolito, the headlining prospect of the deal, didn’t look very promising in his first Major League action during the 2016 season. Eaton, meanwhile, was signed to an affordable contract through the 2021 season, averaged a 119 OPS+ and 5.3 bWAR in the three seasons prior to the deal, and could play center field until there was a vacancy in right field (hint: there was).

Early returns for the Nationals side of the deal didn’t seem as terrible as many feared. Eaton struggled to stay healthy, but was productive offensively, slashing .288/.377/.425 (109 OPS+) in his first three seasons in the NL. Giolito went on to have his worst minor league season in 2017 and gave up the most earned runs of any pitcher in 2018. Lopez generally struggled across those three years out of the White Sox rotation, outside of a decent 2018 showing, while Dunning pitched well, albeit exclusively in the minor leagues.

The past couple of years have quite handily tipped the trade in Chicago’s favor however. The right-handed Giolito turned a sharp corner entering the 2019 season, and has now garnered Cy Young consideration every year since his ’19 emergence. Lopez has had trouble with consistency, but is coming off a season that saw him pitch out of the bullpen at times to post a cumulative 3.43 ERA. Dunning, meanwhile, was the key piece in the trade that sent Lance Lynn from Texas to Chicago.

Eaton saw his production crater in 2020 and ultimately had his 2021 option bought out by the Nationals. Adding some insult to injury, Eaton ended up signing with the White Sox as their regular right fielder before last season. Eaton’s 2021 Chicago tenure didn’t last long, as he managed 58 games before being designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels for a spell but couldn’t quite reignite the abilities that made him such a trade commodity back in 2016. He’s now in a state of limbo while he mulls retirement.

While the young pieces surrendered in the Eaton trade make that deal seem the most regrettable in hindsight, a win-now Nationals club benefitted from Eaton when they needed him most. In the 2019 World Series that the team would go on to win, Eaton slashed an incredibly useful .320/.433/.560 with two home runs and a steal for good measure. Neither the Rockies or Yankees have taken home a World Series trophy in the past five years, though it’s hard to attribute their 2016 deals as the reason for that common distinction.

Unlike the Eaton deal, the Desmond deal largely proved a sunk cost from the very beginning. In his first year in Colorado, Desmond was unable to match his All-Star form in Texas, slashing .274/.326/.375 while learning a new position. Desmond produced a 20-20 season in 2018, but his accompanying OPS+ of 83 left a lot to be desired from a first baseman in Coors Field. Desmond shifted to the outfield full time in 2019 and again chipped in 20 homers, though his offensive and defensive contributions were consistently regarded below average.

Desmond has since opted out of the two most recent seasons, owing to pandemic conditions and a desire to be with his family. The Rockies bought out an option on Desmond’s contract in November, sending him to free agency and potentially spelling an end to the respected veteran’s Major League career.

While the Desmond contract was a misstep for the Colorado front office, it can be argued that they weren’t “$14MM and a better first baseman” away from being championship contenders at any point during Desmond’s tenure. The front office gambled on an All Star’s upside and it didn’t quite pan out, only costing money— mostly.

The Rockies aren’t entirely off the hook for this deal yet considering they surrendered a high draft pick to dream on Desmond. Few can be sure who the Rockies would have selected with the 11th overall pick in 2017, of course, or how the player would have developed in Colorado’s farm system. Still, it may sting Rockies fans to know that All-Star Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers was taken two picks after the sacrificed pick, at 13th overall. The rest of the first round has yet to produce any All-Stars, though it does feature a number of highly regarded prospects, including touted Royals first base prospect Nick Pratto.

The Yankees portion of the poll is much more cut and dry review-wise than the first two deals. Fans didn’t think the Yankees would regret this deal as much as the other clubs and they were proven correct.

Chapman has been as advertised, flashing erratic control in his first three seasons in pinstripes but combining it with lights out stuff. The flame-throwing closer comes with baggage and has a habit of making things interesting, but he’s been so effective that the Yankees reached a new agreement with Chapman back in 2019, keeping him in the fold through the 2022 season. Since signing that contract extension, Chapman has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with an elite 41.3% strikeout rate that largely makes up for an unenviable 14.6% walk rate. Even if Chapman struggles next season, it’s hard to say New York hasn’t already come out ahead on their partnership with the closer.

All that said, our readers proved that informed speculation can age quite well. Flags will fly forever in D.C., but it’s surely a tough pill for a retooling Nats club to swallow now that every one of their traded prospects has proved valuable elsewhere. But what do you think? Do you feel like the Rockies’ deal should have garnered the distinction of being the most questionable? After all, even if the Nationals overpaid to acquire Eaton, one could argue it was a more logical decision than signing a non-first baseman as a first baseman. Or perhaps you have another deal from December ’16 that you feel deserves more head-shaking and finger-wagging. Be sure to let us know in the comments!

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