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Detroit’s Underrated Trade Chip

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Owners of a major league-worst 30-68 record, the Tigers figure to be one of baseball’s most active sellers prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline. Three of their players – starter Matthew Boyd, reliever Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos – stand among the most discussed trade chips in baseball. But they’re likely not the only Tigers who are on other teams’ radars as the deadline approaches. The club also has an underrated reliever, right-hander Buck Farmer, it could market.

As is the case with Boyd, who’s under control for the next few years, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to deal Farmer. He’s earning a minimal salary right now and won’t make his first of three potential trips through the arbitration process until the offseason. That said, Farmer’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and won’t in the immediate future, which makes him a sensible piece for Detroit to consider parting with in the next few days.

Farmer has been a member of the Tigers since they chose the ex-Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Although he wasn’t a particularly high selection, Farmer climbed up the team’s system to become the Tigers’ second-ranked prospect at Baseball America after the 2014 season, during which he briefly debuted in the bigs. At the time, BA contended Farmer could become a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, though it noted the Tigers may decide he’s better off in the bullpen.

Five years later, Farmer has indeed found his niche in Detroit’s relief corps. After a few seasons of posting mediocre to worse numbers as a starter and reliever, Farmer has morphed into a pleasant surprise this year. Farmer has logged a 3.70 ERA across 41 1/3 innings (45 appearances, one start) thus far. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but Farmer’s strikeout and walk rates (10.67 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) are impressive, as is his 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate, while his 3.20 FIP, 3.36 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP all suggest he has deserved better in the run prevention department. He’s generating groundballs at a 51.4 percent clip, which is exactly 11 percent higher than the GB rate he recorded over a full season of relief work last year. Along with inducing grounders at a below-average rate over 69 1/3 frames then, Farmer put up just 7.4 K/9 against 5.32 BB/9, helping lead to an unspectacular 4.15 ERA/4.46 FIP.

Like last year, Farmer has continued to fire four-seam fastballs at around 95 mph. However, Farmer has somewhat changed his pitch mix since then, per Statcast. He utilized his four-seamer approximately 57 percent of the time in 2018, but it’s down to just over 48 percent now. Meantime, Farmer’s slider usage has climbed significantly – from 17 percent to 27 – while his changeup reliance has continued to hover around the mid-20 percent range. The adjustment to Farmer’s repertoire has worked out. While batters have destroyed his fastball (.436 weighted on-base average, .422 xwOBA), they’ve done next to nothing against his slider (.240/.148) and change (.224/.271). Thanks largely to his hittable heater, Farmer ranks in the basement of the league (its sixth percentile) in hard-hit rate against. Still, his quality offspeed offerings have enabled Farmer to limit hitters to a respectable .320 wOBA/.313 xwOBA overall.

In Farmer, an acquiring team wouldn’t exactly be landing the most exciting option prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, Farmer’s an effective, cheap, controllable reliever who has helped the Tigers this year and would likely aid a contender. It would make sense for Detroit to consider selling high on Farmer in the coming days, and it would be logical for better teams to come calling.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Has This Really Been A Slow Trade Deadline?

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YES. That wasn’t hard. We hear complaints most every summer about a lack of action, but this time they’re legit. But just what kind of a lull are we talking about? How slow has it been?

[RELATED: A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline]

Teams have been quite miserly with swaps in the run-up to the 2019 deadline — a fact that’s all the more notable given the lack of an August trade period. We have seen Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce move on from the Mariners — Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is doing his part, even if his peers are still napping — but otherwise the chief deals have involved Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey, and Martin Maldonado. Each of those players obviously has had success in the majors, but it’s fair to say that none is at anything close to his peak value.

Well, if we aren’t getting any juicy new deals this year, then we’ll just re-live deadlines past. As shown below, we’ve seen some rather significant swaps in the run-ups to each trade deadline over the past five years. Only the 2015 trade period rivals this year’s for a lack of scenery at this stage of the proceedings. There were ultimately some huge trades that year, but virtually all of them occurred between the early period and deadline day itself, which was rather quiet apart from one notable swap that has ultimately had a massive impact on the Mets organization.

[To help you on your trip down memory lane, I’ve included some useful links. The relevant year includes our full database entries from the start of June through to July 25th in each season. If you click the names of the headlining veteran player(s), you’ll go straight to our post for the relevant swap. Trades are ordered from most recent to earliest. We’re looking specifically at deals involving players that were seen as significant pieces for contenders at the time they were swapped, not just interesting trades. Thus, no further discussion of Marco Gonzales, Chris Taylor, and others that happened to be dealt in a deadline run-up.]

2018

Nate Eovaldi; Zach Britton; Jeurys Familia; Brad Hand; Manny Machado; Kelvin Herrera

2017

Anthony Swarzak; Eduardo Nunez; Trevor Cahill; Jaime Garcia; Sergio Romo; David Phelps; David Robertson/Todd Frazier/Tommy Kahnle; J.D. Martinez; Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson; Jose Quintana

2016

Aroldis Chapman; Mike Montgomery; Drew Pomeranz; Brad Ziegler; Bud Norris; Kelly Johnson; James Shields

2015

Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe; Steve Cishek; Scott Kazmir; Alejandro De Aza; Mark Trumbo

2014

Kendrys Morales; Joakim Soria; Chase Headley; Huston Street; Brandon McCarthy; Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel; Jason Grilli/Ernesto Frieri

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mike Moustakas

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You already know the essentials here. Mike Moustakas has twice entered the open market in apparent position to secure a strong, multi-year contract. And he has twice come away with a one-year pillow deal (in each case involving a mutual option that mostly functions to defer some salary). As he closes in on his 31st birthday at the tail end of the 2019 season, Moustakas is still playing well. Can he finally hit it big in free agency? Or will he again be forced to go year-to-year?

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline

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Anyone that has found their way to this particular plot of internet land is surely familiar with the essentials of the classic summer baseball trade. Good teams acquire useful players from bad ones. Familiar readers have the next key elements down: teams are focused not only on player performance, but on contract rights (in a nutshell: how many years and for how much money?). Attentive MLBTR-ists are also aware of the importance of a whole host of other considerations.

No matter where you are on the spectrum, you probably know that baseball teams have 25 players in uniform at any given time. Most are likely at least vaguely familiar with the concept of the 40-man MLB roster, which consists of those 25 on the active roster along with others that are on optional assignment or the 10-day injured list.

Those basic roster tallies are some of the simplest concepts influencing the transactional market for MLB talent. They can also operate in subtle ways, particularly as they interact with other rules. This year’s most-visible off-field rule change was the creation of the One True Trade Deadline — which, as we explored in depth recently, appears to represent a complete and exception-free bar to the trades of MLB players after July 31st. Long before the explosion in importance of August trades in the seasons leading up to its banishment, the artist formerly known as the revocable waiver trade period provided an important backstop for contenders. You may not have sat back waiting for a major addition, but you knew you could snag a necessary depth piece if a need arose. Not so anymore.

This poses a bit of a dilemma for contenders. They can make educated guesses, but cannot foresee precisely what needs will arise beyond the month of July — after which time they will be limited to acquiring players on minor-league contracts via trade (a potentially useful backstop but rather limited in terms of quality) or MLB players via waiver claim (a complete crap-shoot and, in some cases, untenably expensive). Building depth is obviously of importance … yet teams also cannot stuff their MLB rosters beyond the bounds of the 25 and 40-man limits, thus limiting the volume of MLB-caliber players they can compile. And that’s all before considering the need to utilize 40-man spots on players who are only (or mostly) of value in the future.

So … with no do-overs, what can a contender do to make sure it’s covered? In structuring a slate of acquisition targets, teams will need to look for somewhat creative ways to build in a bit more depth now than they might have in years past. The details will obviously depend upon each organization’s preexisting slate of internal options, but all will share a general interest in obtaining readily stashable players.

Here are a few classes of players that might hold a bit more appeal than usual — or, at least, which might be mined for useful depth pieces that can be filed away in the recesses of the rosters …

[Background Reading: Understanding The New Trade Deadline Rules]

Optionable Players: This one’s sort of obvious in that non-core players are always more appealing when they can be optioned, thus allowing teams much greater flexibility in dealing with roster contingencies that arise. But the ability to send a 40-man roster member down to the minors now takes on even greater potential importance as a deadline strategy. It’s possible to imagine a team acquiring a solid, optionable middle reliever and stashing him right away at Triple-A, utilizing other players on the active roster until a need arises or rosters expand in September. Of course, such players necessarily still occupy valuable 40-man space, so they’re not truly stashed.

Outrighted Players: It’s generally presumed that a player who’s viewed as a trade chip should be showcased at the MLB level in advance of the deadline, but putting a guy on the 40-man can also kill his trade appeal. It goes without saying that a player who cleared outright waivers earlier in the season isn’t going to be seen as a major addition for a contender. But such players can be useful stashes — if, at least, they don’t need to be placed on the MLB roster of an acquiring team unless or until there’s a need. Consider Dan Straily, who was punted from the O’s 40-man and took up an assignment at Triple-A, where he has quietly turned in quality numbers through five starts in the tough International League. Or Diamondbacks catcher John Ryan Murphy, who’d be a worthwhile depth piece for teams worried about being caught thin behind the dish. The Yankees already made a move of this kind. Under the new deadline rules, outrighted MLB contracts (there’s a distinction from minor-league contracts) cannot be traded after July 31st.

Outright-able Players: No, we’re not suggesting that an under-water contract is a positive asset. But a big salary can help a player make it through outright waivers, before or even after the trade deadline (at which point such players can be claimed, but likely wouldn’t be if their contract is too expensive). The new deadline rules can in this sense function to make it more appealing for a contender to take on an underperforming contract to facilitate the acquisition of another player. Even if you don’t have immediate use for the overpriced player, he might be a useful depth option that wouldn’t otherwise be available if you outright and stash him after the deal goes through. For this scheme to work, such players would have to be ineligible to elect free agency while keeping their guaranteed money, meaning we’d be looking at guys with less than five years of MLB service. Players like Mike Montgomery, Travis Shaw, Delino DeShields Jr., and Adam Conley might represent possibilities. It’s admittedly a narrow opening, but that’s sort of what we’re looking for here — outside-the-box means by which teams can find just the right piece to squeeze in some post-July protection.

Players On 60-Day Injured List: This might be the most interesting possibility for a truly new angle on the deadline. In past years, players on the 60-day injured list would generally have been held back in hopes they’d return to action in August and morph back into a trade piece. Now, we could see them moved by the end of July, even if it’s not entirely clear when or even whether they’ll make it back in action down the stretch. You’re allowed to trade for injured players, even if it doesn’t typically happen very often. Indeed, such players can shift directly from the corresponding injured list of one team to that of another, which means that players on the 60-day injured list need not even temporarily occupy a 40-man spot. Clubs can assess injury expectations, in some cases by watching players on their rehab assignments, and reasonably project those players’ timelines and potential value as a depth option. A few conceivable options that are or could be put on the 60-day IL include Hunter Strickland (if he’s not activated before the deadline), Josh Harrison, Tyson Ross, Edinson Volquez, Nick Vincent, Nate Karns, and Luke Farrell. Some of the injured guys are also candidates to be outrighted, which adds to the roster-stashing options but obviously also suggests they aren’t going to be taken on unless other financial elements or other players are also involved.

Players On 10-Day Injured List: When contemporary baseball thinking met the 10-day IL, we saw an explosion in the number of players hitting the shelf. Now, names are constantly shuffling on and off the list of walking wounded. That can create some opportunities for attentive teams. Such players still require 40-man spots and would ultimately need to be restored to the active roster once they are healthy and have run through their rehab time. But with September active roster expansion not far off, and lengthy rehab clocks available to work with (20 days for position players, 30 for pitchers), a creative club might add a piece knowing that the new addition ought to be available down the stretch and won’t force the team’s hand from a roster perspective — even if they’re out of options. Such players can simply be designated or pushed to the 60-day IL as needed in August and beyond. Dee Gordon, Clayton Richard and Jesse Biddle are possible examples. Beyond the roster-stretching possibilities, players on the 10-day IL that are expected back in relatively short order — say, Zack Wheeler or Shawn Kelley, to take two prominent examples — are generally much likelier to be dealt in July despite their health status than would’ve been the case in years prior.

Underwhelmed? Well, that’s sort of the point. We’re looking in the margins here. Teams obviously aren’t going to be going wild chasing down these sub-groups of players. If they feel exposed in certain areas — organizational catching depth, say, or passable middle-relief arms — they’ll also look into dealing for players on minor-league deals (before or after the deadline), sign up the few available free agents, and/or mine the indy ball (or even international) leagues for players. Still, the above categories afford a few additional avenues for dealing with the new limitations in the era of the unitary trade deadline.

Oscar Mercado Has Helped Rescue Indians’ Season

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Cleveland came into 2019 as a three-time defending AL Central champion, but the club looked as if it was relinquishing its status as a powerhouse over the first couple months of the season. Owing partially to serious injuries or illnesses to starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the Indians were a somewhat unthinkable 26-27 after a loss in Boston on May 27. At that point, 10 games back of the emergent Twins in their division, the Indians appeared to be on their way to serving as trade deadline sellers.

On May 14, two weeks before the Indians sunk below .500, they promoted outfielder Oscar Mercado from Triple-A Columbus. Now, over two months later, Mercado’s call-up stands out as a development that has helped key a turnaround. Even though they’re still without Kluber and Carrasco, the Indians have rallied to 58-41, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and a surmountable three behind the Twins – whom they play 10 more times.

The 24-year-old Mercado is among the reasons there’s now a legitimate battle in the AL Central. He’s just under a year from joining the Indians, with the club having acquired him at last July’s trade deadline from the Cardinals. Mercado was then a solid prospect who was fresh off an effective Triple-A run with the Redbirds. His numbers declined when he transferred to the Tribe’s top affiliate after the trade, but Mercado came back with a vengeance this season. Before his promotion, Mercado slashed .294/.396/.496 (130 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, four home runs and a triple) and 14 stolen bases in 140 plate appearances.

When they summoned Mercado for his first big league experience, the Indians likely would have been thrilled with playable production – let alone above-average numbers. So far, they’ve gotten the latter. Across 230 trips to the plate, Mercado has batted .297/.350/.488 (117 wRC+), swatted eight homers with a respectable .191 ISO, and swiped nine bags on 11 tries. He has also essentially been a scratch defender in center, albeit over a small sample size, with 1 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Back when Mercado joined the Indians, they were still clinging to hope that slumping veteran Leonys Martin would rebound. Martin, returning from the life-threatening bacterial infection he suffered in 2018, was the Indians’ Opening Day center fielder and their go-to choice there over the season’s first couple months. Finally, on June 22, the Indians decided Martin’s rope had run out. They designated him for assignment after Martin hit .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with minus-0.6 fWAR in 264 trips to the plate.

The cutting of Martin, who’s now playing in Japan, officially opened the door for Mercado to assume the outfield’s most important position. Aside from a couple days in which Greg Allen has started at the position, it has belonged to Mercado almost exclusively. Overall, Mercado has been remarkably consistent. His wRC+ by month: 119 in May, 118 in June, 114 in July. The righty’s wRC+ against same-handed pitchers: 119. His wRC+ against lefties: 115.

If you’re looking for negatives, it’s obvious there is some good fortune propping up Mercado’s output. Although Mercado’s one of the game’s fastest players, a .335 batting average on balls in play could be difficult to uphold. And while Mercado’s only striking out at a 17.6 percent clip, he’s walking just 5.6 percent of the time. Statcast, meanwhile, paints somewhat of a bleak picture in regards to his production, placing Mercado in the league’s 39th percentile or worse in expected weighted on-base average (.322, compared to a .357 real wOBA), expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Even if Mercado regresses toward his xwOBA as the season moves along, he’d still qualify as an easy upgrade over Martin, who posted a .270 wOBA before the Tribe cut him. Thanks in part to what Mercado has done so far, the Indians’ outfield hasn’t been the massive question mark it was at the outset of the season. The Indians, set to begin life without Michael Brantley then, ran out an Opening Day outfield of Martin, Jake Bauers in left and Tyler Naquin in right. They’re now going with Mercado, a Bauers/Jordan Luplow platoon in left and Naquin at his season-opening spot on a regular basis.

Bauers has recently put up much better offensive totals than he did during a disastrous May; the righty-swinging Luplow has been a force against lefties throughout 2019; and Naquin has come back well from a pair of lost seasons at the MLB level. However, of the Indians’ main outfielders, it’s Mercado who has been their best. The rookie has played an important role in saving Cleveland’s season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Trading Felipe Vazquez

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Losers of eight of 10 since the All-Star break, the Pirates’ already slim playoff hopes have taken a beating over the past week-plus. At 46-53, they’re six games out of a wild-card spot and 7 1/2 behind the National Central-leading Cubs. Only three NL teams have worse records than the Pirates, who will have to jump seven clubs in order to earn a playoff position. It’s probably safe to say they’re going to extend their postseason drought to four years in 2019.

This happens to be the fourth season in Pittsburgh for reliever Felipe Vazquez, though he’s obviously not to blame for the team’s ongoing struggles. In fact, since the Pirates acquired the flamethrowing left-hander from the Nationals in a deal for veteran reliever Mark Melancon in July 2016, Vazquez has evolved into one of the majors’ premier late-game options. Vazquez was downright exceptional over the previous two seasons, but this may go down as his best campaign to date. The 28-year-old has pitched to a dominant 1.91 ERA/2.02 FIP with 14.03 K/9 against 2.34 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings, adding 21 saves on 22 tries for good measure.

Considering Vazquez’s brilliance, not to mention the Pirates’ woes, there is a case they should consider parting with him before the July 31 deadline. The fact that Vazquez is controllable over the next few seasons for team-friendly salaries would help enable the Pirates to land an enormous return for him. The club shrewdly signed the strikeout artist formerly known as Felipe Rivero to a four-year, $22MM extension months before the 2018 season. He’s under wraps through at least 2021 as a result, though the way his career’s going, it looks like a sure thing right now that his employer will exercise $10MM club options in 2022 and ’23. Granted, those decisions are a long distance off, and considering the volatility of relievers, Vazquez could turn into a pumpkin by then. Perhaps that’s another reason to sell high on Vazquez now. But general manager Neal Huntington doesn’t seem to agree. Huntington has shot down the possibility of a Vazquez trade twice this month, noting both times that he expects the two-time All-Star to be indispensable to the Pirates’ next playoff team.

“Our expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” Huntington said on July 1.

Unlike back then, the Pirates’ season now looks as if it’s close to flatlining. Nevertheless, Huntington remains steadfast in his desire to keep Vazquez, having said this past weekend that “we always have to entertain ways to make this organization — and ideally this current club — better. Sometimes you make the future clubs better, but we fully anticipate Felipe will be closing the next playoff games that we’re a part of.”

It certainly wouldn’t be indefensible on Pittsburgh’s part to retain Vazquez, who’s magnificent and affordable (all the more important for a low-spending franchise). On the other hand, Vazquez would probably be the best relief trade chip in the game if the Pirates were to shop him over the next week. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

Ken Giles’ Elite Season

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Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is one of the majors’ top trade candidates going into the July 31 deadline, and for good reason. The right-hander’s eminently effective, making a reasonable salary ($6.3MM), under control for another year after this one, and playing for a rebuilding team that’s likely to move its best trade chips in the next week-plus. The 28-year-old has been connected to four teams in the rumor mill thus far (the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins and Braves), but it stands to reason he’s on even more contenders’ radars. Any club acquiring Giles would be getting an accomplished late-game option who happens to be amid a career year.

Giles entered 2019 off a strong half-decade run divided among the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays, though he lost his place in the Houston organization amid a somewhat rocky campaign last year. Two-plus months before the Astros traded him to the Jays in a July deal for fellow reliever Roberto Osuna (who hadn’t yet returned from a domestic violence suspension), Giles made headlines for punching himself in the face on the heels of a rough outing against the Yankees. That was one of several uncharacteristically subpar nights for Giles, who pitched to a personal-worst 4.65 ERA across 50 1/3 innings. But hope wasn’t lost for Giles – he saved all 26 of his attempts, posted excellent strikeout and walk rates (9.48 K/9, 1.25 BB/9) and logged a 3.08 FIP.

This season, not only has Giles continued to fan and walk hitters at appealing clips, but his previously enticing ability to prevent runs has returned. A jaw-dropping, career-high 15.55 K/9 – which ranks third among all relievers – has helped Giles pitch to a microscopic 1.64 ERA/1.46 FIP over 33 innings. Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike percentage (20.8) also ranks among the elite (second).

With Giles missing bats at a ridiculous rate, he has saved 14 of 15 chances, continuing his near-automatic run in that department dating back to last season. Meantime, Giles’ walk rate has more than doubled (2.73 BB/9), but it’s still respectable; it’s also right in line with his career figure (2.72).

As you’d expect from a look at his bottom-line production, Giles has been tough on same-handed and lefty hitters this year. However, it’s righties (.286 wOBA) who have actually caused him more trouble than lefties (.219). Additionally, one would think Giles’ 97 mph fastball has driven his success this season, yet it’s his slider which has flummoxed hitters far more. They’ve put up a pitiful .138 xwOBA/.112 wOBA against Giles’ slider and a much better .367/.340 versus his fastball, according to Statcast. Giles, understandably, has changed how he deploys the two pitches. He turned to his four-seamer almost 59 percent of the time a year ago, but the mark has dropped below 49.0 in 2019. On the other hand, Giles’ slider usage has shot from 40.9 percent to 48.7.

A 7-plus percent decrease in groundball rate has come with Giles’ new pitch mix, but it hasn’t led to more home runs against. To the contrary, his HR-to-fly ball rate (7.1 percent) is outstanding and roughly 4 percent better than it was in 2018. It helps, of course, that Giles has upped his infield fly rate from 7.5 to 14.3 in a year’s time. Pop-ups represent weak contact, so it’s hardly a shock Giles ranks in the league’s upper echelon in hard-hit rate against (71st percentile), per Statcast, which shows his .230 expected weighted on-base average is even weaker than his .256 real wOBA. Just four other pitchers have bettered Giles in the xwOBA category.

Considering Giles’ ERA/FIP and wOBA/xwOBA gaps, not to mention the .365 batting average on balls in play he has yielded, his all-world 2019 production may be unlucky to some extent. No matter what, it’s clear this version of Giles has been on the shortlist of the game’s premier relievers. As a result, the Blue Jays may be in position to add at least one top 100 prospect to their farm system in a Giles trade. Not bad for a Toronto team that got Giles a year ago for a reliever it was eager to cut ties with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?

Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.

Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.

Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.

It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.

Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?

(Poll link for app users)

Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Hitters

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In the wake of Angels right-hander Matt Harvey’s designation for assignment Friday, we took a look at how the other seven pitchers who signed one-year contracts worth at least $5MM have performed so far in 2019. We’ll do the same here with the 13 hitters who received $5MM-plus last offseason. While most of the pitchers we covered have endured disappointing years, the majority of the offensive players have helped their teams…

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves ($23MM):

  • After an injury-marred 2018 with the Blue Jays and Indians, the Bringer of Rain said yes to the Braves’ gargantuan one-year offer early last winter. The deal has gone swimmingly for both parties so far. The 33-year-old Donaldson has enjoyed a healthy season and slashed .255/.373/.517 with 22 home runs and 2.7 fWAR in 397 plate appearances. Donaldson’s age will prevent him from landing a long-term contract in the offseason, but it’s safe to say the overall value of the deal will outdo his current pact at the rate he’s going.

Yasmani Grandal, C, Brewers ($18.25MM):

  • Grandal turned down a lucrative multiyear offer from the Mets’ before settling for the Brewers’ short-term pact – a contract that has worked out beautifully for the Brew Crew. Not only has the switch-hitting Grandal batted .252/.372/.502 with 19 HRs and 3.1 fWAR across 366 trips to the plate, but he has continued to provide high-quality defense. Grandal’s deal does include a $16MM mutual option for 2020, but he’s almost certain to reject his half of it in favor of another free-agency experience. The soon-to-be 31-year-old won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over him then, as he did last offseason.

Nelson Cruz, DH, Twins ($14MM):

  • Now a member of his fifth team, the ageless Cruz, 39, continues to rake. Cruz has torched opposing pitchers for a .271/.365/.541 line with 18 homers and a .271 ISO in 299 PA, making him one of the chief threats on a Minnesota team with no shortage of formidable hitters.

Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B, Brewers ($10MM):

  • For the second straight winter, Moustakas wound up with a one-year contract. There’s also an $11MM mutual option for 2020, but it’s likely he’ll decline it to try his hand at free agency yet again. After all, Moustakas is in the midst of one of his best seasons. The 30-year-old Moose has not only slashed .265/.334/.544 with 25 homers and a .279 ISO over 386 PA, but he has been an asset at two defensive positions. Between his customary spot (third base) and his new one (second), Moustakas has logged 5 DRS with a 1.6 UZR. The newfound defensive flexibility should serve him well during the upcoming winter.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Nationals ($9MM):

  • Dozier had been a star in Minnesota until last season, when the Twins traded him to the Dodgers during the summer, but he was uncharacteristically subpar between the two clubs in 2018. The 32-year-old carried those struggles into the beginning of this season with the Nationals, though he has rebounded at the plate over the past several weeks. In all, Dozier has hit a useful .235/.333/.436 and swatted 14 homers with a .201 ISO through 333 PA. Contrary to past seasons, Dozier no longer runs much – he has attempted just three steals, succeeding on two. Meanwhile, his work in the field (minus-4 DRS, minus-0.9 UZR) has earned below-average reviews.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($7.5MM):

  • The Yankees opted to continue their relationship with their longest-tenured player, which has been a wise choice. Their outfield has battled major injuries to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, but the long-steady Gardner has been around to help pick up the pieces. The 35-year-old’s a 2.1-fWAR player through 350 PA on the strength of .245/.326/.465 hitting with 15 homers and an effective defense and base running mix. He also delivered one of the greatest dugout conniptions in recent memory on Thursday.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Twins ($7.25MM):

  • Schoop couldn’t secure a multiyear contract in the offseason after a rough 2018 divided between Baltimore and Milwaukee. The 27-year-old has bounced back this season to give the Twins league-average offensive production (100 wRC+) with 15 bombs and 1.1 fWAR in 321 PA. Still, it doesn’t look as if he’ll come close to replicating the career year he enjoyed in 2017.

Steve Pearce, IF, Red Sox ($6.25MM):

  • Pearce was one of the toasts of Boston last autumn, earning World Series MVP honors after the team’s Fall Classic triumph over the Dodgers. As we covered Thursday, though, this year hasn’t been nearly as fruitful for Pearce. At this point, hindsight says the Red Sox would have been better off letting the 36-year-old go. Multiple injuries have kept Pearce out since May 31 (and a return isn’t close). Perhaps of greater concern, the 2018 standout has hit a disastrous .180/.245/.258 with one homer in the 99 trips to the plate he has taken this season.

Nick Markakis, RF, Braves ($6MM):

  • Old reliable Markakis, 35, has added another effective season to a long line of them this year. A solid amount of walks, a dearth of strikeouts, below-average power and plenty of contact continue to define Markakis’ offensive game. He’s hitting .289/.361/.441 with nine long balls through 395 PA, though the lefty hasn’t fared nearly as well against southpaws this season. Nevertheless, this has been yet another impressively durable year for Markakis, who came into 2019 with six straight campaigns of 155-plus games and has appeared all of the Braves’ 99 contests this season.

Robinson Chirinos, C, Astros ($5.75MM):

  • After the in-state rival Rangers passed on Chirinos’ 2019 option, the Astros scooped him up on a buy-low deal. As was the case with the Rangers, the 35-year-old Chirinos has given the Astros an offensively adept, defensively limited backstop. Despite a recent slump, Chirinos has still hit .218/.347/.424 and totaled 12 homers across 293 PA. The defense hasn’t been very good, though, which helps explain why the Astros had interest in Martin Maldonado before the Royals traded him to the Cubs.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Royals ($5.25MM):

  • The out-of-contention Royals are primed to trade Hamilton, but the value’s minimal. It’s true Hamilton’s always imposing speed and defense could catch contenders’ eyes, though his typically punchless bat has been worse than ever this season. The 28-year-old’s wRC+ (50) ranks dead last among 217 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA in 2019.

Jordy Mercer, SS, Tigers ($5.25MM):

  • For the Tigers, the ideal endgame in signing Mercer – previously a usable shortstop with the Pirates – was likely to trade him in the summer. That’s going to be difficult, however, as Mercer hasn’t been good or healthy this season. He owns a miserable 62 wRC+ with minus-0.2 fWAR in 106 PA.

Freddy Galvis, SS, Blue Jays ($5MM):

  • Never a significant threat at the plate, the switch-hitting Galvis has batted a personal-best .270/.307/.452 and slugged 15 dingers in 384 PA this season. The durable 29-year-old has been a fixture in the rebuilding Blue Jays’ lineup as a result, though that may come to an end in the next two weeks with the deadline nearing. The fact that Galvis seems to have trade value is a win for a Toronto team which was likely hoping to flip him this summer when it signed him.

Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers

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Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):

  • Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.

Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):

  • Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.

Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):

  • Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):

  • It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.

Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):

  • The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):

  • Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.

Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):

  • As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.
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