Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller
A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.
We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504
As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.
Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604
Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.
Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450
An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.
Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496
Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.
Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA
Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.
Three More
Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.
Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.
Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
The New Fernando Tatis Jr.
Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.
The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.
Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.
From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.
Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.
By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho‘s +26 figure.
While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.
That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.
That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.
Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.
The Dodgers Grabbed An Elite Closer Off Waivers
There are myriad reasons for the Dodgers’ decade-long run of excellence. They’ve added elite players via trade (Mookie Betts) and free agency (Freddie Freeman). Their strong player development pipeline has allowed them to consistently supplement their high-payroll, star-laden roster with controllable talent.
As with any good team, the Dodgers have also hit on less visible acquisitions. Jason Heyward has looked reinvigorated after cracking the L.A. roster following an offseason minor league pact. Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller have turned in solid results in the middle innings since being acquired at little cost. None of those have been as impactful as the August 2021 waiver claim of right-hander Evan Phillips.
Phillips had pitched in parts of four MLB seasons at the time. He’d debuted with the Braves and been included in the 2018 deadline deal that sent Kevin Gausman from the Orioles to Atlanta. Phillips flashed strikeout upside with the O’s over the next couple seasons but couldn’t consistently throw strikes. At the end of the 2020 campaign, a rebuilding Baltimore team put Phillips on waivers. He went unclaimed.
The reliever stayed in the O’s system until the following August. He was carrying an ERA a little above 5.00 in Triple-A when Baltimore released him. The Rays signed Phillips to a minor league deal, called him up for one three-inning outing, then pushed him back off the MLB roster. When he hit waivers for a second time, L.A. claimed him.
It seemed a nondescript move. Phillips had a 7.26 ERA in 49 career appearances. Relievers with swing-and-miss potential but control woes often change hands. Phillips was out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent to the minors without running through waivers. It seemed entirely possible he’d get quickly squeezed out of the Dodger bullpen the way he had been in Tampa Bay.
Phillips threw 10 1/3 unremarkable innings down the stretch. He was left off the playoff roster for the first two rounds before working three scoreless frames in an eventual NLCS loss to the Braves. He held his spot on the 40-man all winter and began last year in middle relief.
It only took a couple months for him to establish himself in a higher-leverage role. Phillips broke out with 63 innings of 1.14 ERA ball, the lowest mark of any reliever with 60+ frames. He struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters while cutting his walks to a lower than average 6.4% rate. While he didn’t dramatically increase the number of pitches he threw within the strike zone, he more consistently got hitters to chase pitches off the plate. Hitters’ rate of swings on would-be balls went up, while they began taking more pitches within the zone. He was giving opponents a much more uncomfortable at-bat.
Upon landing with the Dodgers, Phillips made a couple adjustments to his pitch mix. Against right-handed batters, he increasingly leaned on his slider — his best offering — while scaling back on his four-seam fastball. When facing southpaws, he dropped a split in favor of a low-90s cutter. He has dominated hitters of either handedness since that point.
Phillips was never likely to repeat a 1.14 ERA — that’s an almost impossible ask of any pitcher — but he has again been one of the game’s best relievers. He’s allowing only 2.18 earned runs per nine over 53 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate is down slightly but still well above-average at 29.9%. The Dodgers have increasingly used him in the ninth inning, and he’s responded with 22 saves (and six holds) while blowing a lead just twice.
Going back to the start of last season, Phillips leads MLB relievers (minimum 100 innings) with a 1.62 ERA. He’s 11th among that group in strikeout percentage and eighth in both strikeout/walk rate differential and SIERA. He’ll turn 29 on Monday but still has three more seasons of club control via arbitration. Phillips played last year on a near-minimum salary and is making $1.3MM this season as a Super Two qualifier.
The Dodgers will go into the postseason with perhaps their spottiest starting staff in years. Julio Urías is on administrative leave after a felony domestic violence arrest. Clayton Kershaw is pitching through shoulder discomfort. Lance Lynn continues to struggle with home runs. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin have undergone season-ending surgery. There’s a case that rookie Bobby Miller — who has all of 17 major league starts to his name — is L.A.’s most reliable starter at the moment.
That’ll very likely increase the pressure on the relief corps in October. The Dodgers have an above-average bullpen, with Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson joining Brasier, Miller and hopefully deadline acquisition Joe Kelly in bridging the middle innings. Dave Roberts figures to lean most heavily on Phillips, something no one would’ve projected when the Dodgers placed their claim a little over two years ago.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Mariners’ Quiet Offseason Bullpen Upgrades
The Mariners hold a tight lead in the AL West with less than a month to go. While certainly not assured, they’ve got a real shot at securing their first division title in over two decades.
While an offensive explosion in the second half is a big part of that success, Seattle’s pitching staff kept them afloat while the lineup was struggling for the bulk of the year. The M’s rotation deservedly draws plenty of praise, but their bullpen has arguably been even better.
Only the Yankees have gotten a lower ERA out of their bullpen than Seattle, whose relievers are allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. The Astros’ group is the only one with a better strikeout rate than the M’s 26.5% clip; that’s also true of their 12.9% swinging strike percentage. Only the Yankees and Cardinals have kept the ball on the ground more frequently.
Seattle’s relief corps has been excellent across the board. They were confident enough in their relievers to trade closer Paul Sewald for controllable offensive help at the deadline. Thus far, they’ve been proven right in their evaluation. Since the Sewald deal, only the Dodgers and Braves have a lower bullpen ERA.
This production isn’t new. The Mariners had a top ten bullpen in both 2021 and ’22. It’s rare consistency for the area of the roster that tends to be the most volatile. The M’s have found that success despite essentially not investing in the bullpen. Their only major league free agent signings of relievers of the past two offseasons have been low-cost pickups of Sergio Romo and Trevor Gott, neither of whom remains on the roster.
Instead, Seattle has built their bullpen through waivers and trades. The biggest additions have come at the expense of the Padres. The M’s acquired Andrés Muñoz as part of the lopsided Austin Nola/Ty France seven-player swap at the 2020 deadline; Muñoz was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time. A day later, Seattle sent middle reliever Taylor Williams to San Diego for then-prospect Matt Brash.
Yet the Mariners have constructed their bullpen on far more than that two-day stretch from three seasons back. As recently as last winter, Seattle plucked a trio of quality relievers from other clubs at little cost.
Justin Topa (controllable through 2026)
None of Seattle’s offseason moves has worked quite as well as the Topa pickup. The M’s acquired the 32-year-old righty in a January trade that sent minor league pitcher Joseph Hernandez to Milwaukee. The move didn’t generate many headlines at the time, as injuries and middling results had kept Topa to 17 appearances for the Brewers between 2020-22. Since landing in Seattle, he has been one of the best relievers in the American League.
Over 55 1/3 frames, he carries a 2.11 ERA. While Topa’s 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% swinging strike rate are each fringy, his 95 MPH sinker has enabled him to keep the ball on the ground at a huge 57.7% clip. He has handled hitters from both sides of the dish and kept his walks to a minuscule 6.3% rate. Topa has held 22 leads and saved a pair of games.
He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next offseason. The M’s can control him for three seasons beyond this one, essentially the entire back end of his expected prime. It remains to be seen whether Topa will stay healthy for multiple seasons. An injury history that included two Tommy John surgeries and flexor tendon surgery is among the reasons that Milwaukee moved on from him. Even if this winds up being his most productive season, this trade will very likely go down as a win for Seattle.
Hernandez has logged 43 innings of 3.98 ERA ball as a 23-year-old for Milwaukee’s High-A affiliate. He’s striking out just 17.8% of batters faced against a huge 13.6% walk rate. He didn’t appear among Baseball America’s midseason ranking of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects and will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for a second time this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.
Gabe Speier (controllable through 2027)
Seattle grabbed Speier off waivers from the Royals at the start of the offseason. As was the case with Topa, the 28-year-old southpaw had nondescript results in scattered time before landing in Seattle. Speier appeared at the major league level with the Royals each year from 2019-22 but never reached 20 MLB innings in a season. He posted a cumulative 3.83 ERA without missing many bats and had been blitzed for a 14.51 ERA over 30 Triple-A outings a year ago.
Given the astonishingly poor minor league results, it’s easy to understand why K.C. put him on waivers. Yet Speier has broken through at the big league level with Seattle, turning in 45 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball. He’s striking out almost 30% of opposing hitters after running a 20.2% strikeout rate for Kansas City. Speier has walked fewer than 4% of opponents while keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 56.9% clip.
Speier isn’t as complete a pitcher as Topa. He’s best suited in favorable platoon situations, with right-handed hitters able to elevate the ball against him, leading to some home run issues. Speier has been a nightmare for opposing southpaws, though. He’s running a 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 85 plate appearances against lefties. Left-handed hitters have hit 70% of their batted balls on the ground.
It seems directly tied to an approach change, as Speier has dramatically upped the use of his sinker against same-handed batters while cutting back on his slider. He’d seemingly gotten too predictable last season, using his slider quite often when he got in favorable counts. He’s now keeping hitters honest with the fastball even when he gets ahead, both keeping the ball on the ground more frequently and making the slider a more effective complementary offering when he does go to it.
Tayler Saucedo (controllable through 2027)
Yet another sinkerballer claimed off waivers, Saucedo joined the Seattle organization on a claim from the Mets in January. He’d never played for New York, who had snagged him from the Blue Jays earlier in the winter. Saucedo had posted a 5.40 ERA in 28 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons for Toronto.
The 30-year-old lefty has tallied a career-high workload in the Pacific Northwest. Over 42 1/3 frames, he has posted a 3.19 ERA. Saucedo hasn’t shown the same command as Topa or Speier, but he’s inducing grounders at a 60.9% clip that even surpasses the rates of his teammates. While his 21.3% strikeout rate is a little below average, he’s getting swinging strikes on a strong 13.6% of his offerings.
Saucedo’s strikeout and walk marks are far better against same-handed opponents. He has been adept at keeping the ball on the ground against hitters from either side of the dish. The M’s are probably best served keeping him away from opposing teams’ top righty bats, though they have enough bullpen depth to deploy him situationally when his ground-ball ability is most valuable.
—————————
None of Topa, Speier or Saucedo were headline-grabbing acquisitions. They’re likely still not familiar names to many fans outside Seattle. Yet they’ve been productive moves on the margins for the M’s front office. Topa cost a minor league pitcher who is struggling in High-A. Speier and Saucedo were acquired for no more than a waiver fee. All three pitchers are playing for around the minimum salary.
The trio has turned in a 2.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .241/.301/.328 batting line over 143 1/3 combined innings. While not the flashiest performers, they’ve been the latest effective bullpen finds for a Seattle front office that has hit on quite a few low-cost relievers in recent years. It’s among the reasons they felt they could trade their closer without punting the season. With a month left to play, their bullpen depth has kept up its end of the bargain, leaving the M’s right in the thick of the division race.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Luis Robert Jr. Is Delivering In His First True Full Season
Luis Robert Jr. has seemed like a staple of the White Sox for a long time now, having debuted back in 2020. However, he wasn’t able to have a full, healthy season in any of his first three campaigns. He avoided the injured list in 2020, but played only 56 games that year due to the schedule being shortened by the pandemic to just 60 contests. He would then miss significant time due to a right hip flexor strain in 2021, getting into just 68 games that year. That was followed by a 98-game season last year, with IL trips due to COVID-19, blurred vision and a wrist sprain.
By the end of 2022, he had certainly been able to showcase his talent. He came into this year with 36 home runs in 222 games and a batting line of .289/.334/.474, which translated to a wRC+ of 122, indicating he was 22% better than league average in that time. He had also stolen 26 bases and been given strong grades for his center field defense. FanGraphs calculated him as being worth 6.7 wins above replacement in that time, a strong tally on a per-game basis but a limited output in terms of volume.
The 2023 campaign has finally allowed us to see what Robert can do over a full, healthy season. He dealt with some quad cramping over the weekend and is still out of the lineup today, but hasn’t been placed on the injured list at any point this year. He’s appeared in 128 games with almost a month still remaining on the schedule. His 5.3% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate are both worse than league average, but he’s doing significant damage when he connects, with 35 home runs and 33 doubles. His .272/.324/.560 batting line amounts to a 135 wRC+.
Defensively, Robert has continued to shine as well. He as 7 Defensive Runs Saved this year, a figure bested by just five center fielders around the league. Outs Above Average is even more enthused, with Robert’s tally of 12 in that category tops at his position, tied with Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. Robert also has 17 steals in 21 tries, helping him put up 5.2 fWAR on the year already. If it weren’t for the amazing two-way exploits of Shohei Ohtani, Robert would be in the American League Most Valuable Player conversation alongside players like Corey Seager, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt.
It’s been a dismal season for the White Sox overall, with the club sporting a record of 53-84. Those poor results promoted a deadline selloff, with players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and others getting sent out of town for prospects. That was followed by a front office shakeup that saw both president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn relieved of their duties last month.
But the shining star of Robert has been a bright spot in the otherwise-gloomy season and perhaps a key reason why the club is hopeful of a quick return to contention. Assistant general manager Chris Getz was recently promoted to general manager, with owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying that part of the reason for staying in-house was that Getz is already familiar with the organization and will perhaps be able to deliver a quick turnaround, as opposed to an outsider who might take time before making bold moves.
Though the Sox sold some players at the deadline, they were mostly limited to those nearing free agency, holding onto more controllable pieces like Robert, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. There are still plenty of holes to fill on the roster and it will be a challenge to patch them all in one winter, but the club has a couple of things in its favor. One of them is the incredibly weak division, where the 66-71 Guardians are still in the playoff hunt in September this year, meaning the path back to contention isn’t quite as steep as it would be elsewhere. The second thing is that core of solid players, headlined by Robert.
Robert has two more guaranteed years on his contract, followed by a pair of $20MM club options that each come with $2MM buyouts. Those look bargains right now and will certainly be triggered, even if Robert were to drop back slightly from his MVP-caliber performance.
That puts something of a long-term target in front of the Sox, who should be able to bank on Robert being on the team through 2027 at least. Jiménez and Vaughn can be controlled through 2026 and Cease through 2025. That gives them at least two more years with that core four, three years with the Robert-Jiménez-Vaughn triumvirate and another year of Robert after that. Time will tell whether or not they can build on that in the years to come, but Robert has shown that they have a strong foundation to work with.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong
Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517
Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.
To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454
Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.
Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA
Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.
Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471
One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499
Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.
Three More
Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.
Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
MLBTR Poll: The Crowded NL Wild Card Race
Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.
Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:
San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)
The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.
On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)
A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.
With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.
Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)
The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.
While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.
Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)
The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.
While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.
———————
How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?
(poll link for app users)
Which Team Will Make The Playoffs?
-
San Francisco Giants 30% (1,027)
-
Arizona Diamondbacks 25% (849)
-
Cincinnati Reds 23% (774)
-
Miami Marlins 13% (430)
-
More than one; one of the other five will miss the playoffs. 10% (331)
Total votes: 3,411
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season
The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket. However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.
Alek Manoah‘s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense. Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position. Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.
“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag. When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.
It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette. While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.
And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck. No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.
The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time. Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.
Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign. Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani‘s legendary two-way performance.
Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA. While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023. For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.
While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground. Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span. Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.
Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year. He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power. The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.
As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons. It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July. Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.
Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre. Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season. Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.
The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters. Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production. And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.
Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense. Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons. The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.
Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him. Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block. He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.
The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet. However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.
A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs. But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.
The Padres’ Underrated Team MVP
Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.
Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.
With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.
Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.
Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.
While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.
Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.
Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.
Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.
While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.
The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk
A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.
In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.
The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!
The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.
That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.
It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?
We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).
Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field
Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.
For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.
Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).
One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.
Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.
The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran‘s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.
Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field
Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.
Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.
Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.
Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.
That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.
While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.
Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots
Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.
Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.
While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).
That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.
Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.