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Yankees Acquire James Paxton

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The Yankees have officially struck a deal to acquire lefty James Paxton from the Mariners, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported. Top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield is coming to Seattle in return, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Completing the return are outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams and righty Erik Swanson, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (via Twitter).

This is the first major move of the winter market, bringing a top-shelf starter to a New York club that has long been rumored to be seeking to boost its rotation. Having already inked CC Sabathia earlier in the winter, the Yanks now appear unlikely to pursue more than one additional starter, though they’ll still have ample financial flexibility to go after any available pitchers.

Meanwhile, the M’s have now kicked off a winter in which they’ll attempt to walk a tightrope act of staying at least reasonably competitive while enhancing their roster’s long-term outlook. Paxton just turned 30 earlier this month, but he’s down to two more season of arbitration control, so he was one of the team’s more obvious assets to market. Previously, the club sent out regular catcher Mike Zunino, another player with two seasons to go until free agency.

In adding Paxton, the Yankees aren’t just getting a highly talented pitcher. They’re getting one at an eminently reasonable rate of pay. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Paxton to earn $9.0MM this winter; if he turns in a great year, he’ll get a nice raise on that amount, but that would also mean the club would be more than happy to pay it. Ultimately, these salary levels land a far sight shy of Paxton’s open-market value — at least, that is, assuming he’s at full health.

At his best, Paxton is among the game’s most dominant rotation pieces. Aptly dubbed the Big Maple, the Canadian southpaw has struck out 11 batters per nine over the past two seasons while averaging a reasonable 2.4 BB/9. That’s rare air for a starter. His ERA ballooned a bit this year to 3.76, owing to a few extra long balls, but he posted a 2.98 mark in 2017. Plus, ERA estimators were quite enamored of his output in the just-completed campaign (3.24 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA).

Of course, this all comes with a caveat. Paxton has never thrown a full MLB campaign, with his 28 starts in 2018 representing a career high. He also just barely (by a third of a frame) passed the 160 innings-pitched threshold for the first time last year. Health issues remain an ever-present concern and will perhaps dictate the outcome of this swap from the Yankees’ perspective.

The Yankees will hang their hat on the fact that Paxton mostly avoided significant injury issues in 2018. He missed time after being struck by a comebacker, which was obviously just an instance of poor fortune, after previously being sidelined for lower back inflammation. Those sorts of maladies aren’t the real concern, though. Previously, Paxton has missed time with forearm, shoulder, and biceps problems.

The good news is that Paxton has delivered a pristine version of his power arsenal when he has been able to unleash it. He has averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer over each of the past two seasons. And his swinging-strike rate is still on the rise, moving up to a personal-best 14.3% in 2018. If he can carry that forward, even if it’s not quite for a full 32-start campaign, the Yankees will likely be quite pleased with this move.

Turning back to the Mariners side, it’s still a bit difficult to know whether this portends quite a few more moves or whether the club will mostly pick around the edges from this point forward. Certainly, the organization has other marketable assets — as well as some under-water contracts that it might look to unload. It was only two weeks ago that we first learned of the Mariners’ somewhat surprising plans to move some key MLB assets this winter. The shape of the final roster remains very much in doubt, though GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today that the club is focused on a 2020-2021 window. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter).

It’s worth noting that, in both this and the Zunino swap, the M’s have brought back players who figure to represent near-term MLB contributors. If things break right, then, the club could rebound quickly. Here, the key asset is Sheffield, a 22-year-old southpaw who originally went to New York along with Clint Frazier in the swap that send Andrew Miller to the Indians. Scouts and prospect hounds alike have long loved Sheffield for his stuff. But questions remain as to whether he’ll every full command the full arsenal sufficiently to reach his ceiling at the game’s highest level.

It’s not as if Sheffield tends to have difficulties finding the zone. He has averaged only 3.4 walks per nine innings over his five minor-league seasons, which is hardly elite but also isn’t a concerning number, standing alone. But an inability to fully dictate the location of your pitches can obviously tell in other ways, particularly against major-league hitters.

Thus far, Sheffield has managed just fine with his explosive three-pitch mix, which is led by a fastball that occasionally edges into the upper-nineties. In 2018, he turned in a 2.48 ERA in 116 games at the Double-A and (mostly) Triple-A level. He also briefly debuted in the bigs; while things didn’t go well in his three relief outings, that hardly means much for the future.

While he’s not nearly so well-known as Sheffield, Swanson is also a near-term possibility for the Mariners’ active roster. He’ll need to take a 40-man spot from the jump, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old joined Sheffield at Triple-A this year after a dominant stop at the penultimate level of the minors to begin the season.

After arriving at the Yanks’ top affiliate, Swanson worked to a 3.86 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He was touched for ten long balls, but otherwise impressed with 9.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Prospect watchers tend to view Swanson as a back-of-the-rotation possibility, rather than any kind of frontline starter, but that’d certainly be a welcome outcome for the Mariners.

Thompson-Williams, meanwhile, reached the High-A level last year at 23 years of age. He did turn in an impressive output there, slashing .290/.356/.517 and racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 375 plate appearances. That represented a big leap forward for the former fifth-round pick, so it remains to be seen whether he can continue to develop as he reaches the high minors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Sale, Swihart, Yankees, Chang, Blue Jays

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority.  If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter.  In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
  • Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher.  With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results.  While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate.  Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May.  Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
  • The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season.  It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade.  Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
  • Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots.  This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline.  Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart.  Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.

Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

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4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

Yankees Notes: Gray, A’s, Machado, Relievers, Extensions

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Although the Athletics contacted the Yankees about right-hander Sonny Gray at least a week ago, “there is no present momentum in talks” between the teams, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. A return to Oakland would represent a homecoming of sorts for Gray, a 2011 first-round pick of the A’s who mostly thrived with the club from 2013-17. The A’s dealt Gray to the Yankees in July 2017 for a bounty of prospects, but he has since looked like a poor fit in the Bronx, leading general manager Brian Cashman to concede that “it’s probably best” for the Bombers to move the 29-year-old this winter. Gray’s down to his final season of team control, in which he’ll earn a projected $9.1MM. Even for a low-budget team like Oakland, $9MM-plus for Gray doesn’t look like an unreasonable figure. Gray pitched like a front-end starter away from Yankee Stadium last year, after all, so he could boost an A’s rotation which is clearly in need of help.

More on the Yanks, all of which comes via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

  • Infielder Manny Machado infamously told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic last month that being “Johnny Hustle” isn’t his “cup of tea.” Considering he was then on the brink of a much-anticipated, highly lucrative trip to free agency, Machado’s remarks came at an inopportune time. And now that Machado is on the open market – where he still figures to rake in a historic payday – Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner addressed the superstar’s comments this week, calling them “troubling” and noting that the club would need to discuss them with the 26-year-old as part of a serious pursuit. To this point, though, the Yankees and Machado haven’t set up a meeting, Cashman revealed Thursday. The executive added that the Yankees have used past meetings with free agents to “educate people about who we are and where we want to go and get a feel back if there’s an alignment there, if that player can fit in our culture and our New York environment or not. There’s times I’ve walked away refreshingly, feeling strongly about, ’I’m glad he was so candid because this is not going to be a good fit.'”
  • The Yankees are at risk of losing high-profile relievers David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency, though they have spoken to both hurlers about re-signing, Cashman said. The 33-year-old Robertson, a Rhode Island resident, would like to pitch for a team in the Northeast, according to Cashman.  “Does he want to come back? Yeah, but he said the same thing to me that he said to the public — he’s got to do what is in the best interests of his family,” Cashman said of Robertson, who’s acting as his own agent. “He’s looking for the best deal he can get. He must have already went to agent school; that’s normally the first thing you hear. There must be a playbook.”
  • Free agency and the trade market are likely the primary concerns for the Yankees right now, but they’ll also consider offseason extensions for some of their current players, per Cashman. Three of their top contributors – center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – are each scheduled to become free agents a year from now, but perhaps the Yankees will prevent one or more of them from reaching the market. “Is it something that’s on the list of things to talk to and walk through and get to? Yes,” Cashman stated in regard to potential extensions for the trio. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it’s now or never? Yeah, we have.”

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?
New York Yankees 55.14% (11,212 votes)
Other 14.99% (3,048 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies 11.73% (2,385 votes)
Atlanta Braves 8.06% (1,639 votes)
Houston Astros 5.62% (1,143 votes)
Washington Nationals 4.45% (905 votes)
Total Votes: 20,332

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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It’s rare that a 100-win season can feel like a let-down, but when one’s chief division rival wins 108 games and captures a World Series title, the sentiment is more understandable. That’s the situation in which the Yankees find themselves, and they’ll likely act aggressively in an effort to close that gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Yankees depth chart | New York Yankees payroll outlook]

Last offseason, much was made of the efforts by the Yankees (and several other big-market organizations) to dip below the $197MM luxury tax barrier (which rises to $206MM for the upcoming season). With mega-stars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado looming on the horizon, there was a belief in many instances that teams were preparing to make a run at one or both 26-year-old MVP-caliber talents. That may not have genuinely been true of all teams that endeavored to reset their tax penalty, but it does seem that there was some truth to that belief as pertains to the Yankees. They’ve already been connected to both and likely will continue to be until the pair has signed (be it in the Bronx or elsewhere).

Harper is a clumsier fit for the Yankees, who already are set to deploy an outfield mix including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and, if he’s healthy and still with the organization, Jacoby Ellsbury. Long-lauded prospect Clint Frazier, too, remains a consideration after an injury-marred 2018 campaign. Given that mix of outfielders, there’s no clear “need” for Harper, though as is always the case with this type of player, there will be multiple teams without an immediately clear “need” that are in the mix. In fact, that same perception applied to an extent last year when the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins.

If the Yankees were to embark on a serious pursuit of Harper, there’d be multiple avenues to making the arrangement work. Harper could rotate through the corner outfield/DH spots with Stanton and Judge, with each seeing occasional time at DH in order to best remain healthy and fresh throughout the year. Agent Scott Boras has already pitched the idea that Harper could be a quality option at first base, though it doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees (or any other club) would simply plug him in as the everyday option there; perhaps he could get an occasional start at the position against tough righties to spell Luke Voit. The specifics behind a theoretical Harper-to-Yankees scenario are probably not all that worth dwelling on, as they seem likely to remain just that — theoretical. The fit is a bit messy, and while the Yankees won’t be entirely ruled out so long as he’s a free agent, they’re also unlikely to be portrayed as a significant favorite.

That’s less the case for Machado, whose fit in the Bronx became even clearer with the revelation that Didi Gregorius would require Tommy John surgery that’ll keep him out for much of the 2019 season. Depending on when medical experts project Gregorius to be able to return, it’s even possible that he’ll be non-tendered or signed to a different contract that lessens the burden of next season’s projected $12.4MM salary. His future is likely being debated among Yankees officials extensively, and without any specific insight into his exact recovery timeline, it’s tough to forecast exactly how (or if) he factors into the organizational plans. Gregorius is, after all, slated to become a free agent next winter.

Regardless of the return date for Gregorius, his injury opens a clear spot to play Machado at shortstop for the first few months of the 2019 season — and possibly beyond. Machado would give the Yankees a middle-of-the-order presence at a premium position, and while signing him would all but assure a return to luxury tax territory, the Yankees would be in the lowest penalty bracket thanks to last year’s financial machinations.

Concerns regarding Machado’s makeup abound following his October comments about his habitual lack of hustle and his likely deliberate clipping of Jesus Aguilar’s foot on a play at first base in the NLCS. Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has already declared that such antics “ain’t going to sell where we play baseball,” and emphasized the importance of the organization having a heart-to-heart discussion with Machado regarding his attitude. To be fair to Machado, while his “Johnny Hustle” and “not my cup of tea” comments reflect poorly, the latter half of his sentiments — the ones in which he said his lack of hustle “looks terrible” and is something he’s worked to change — have been largely ignored in favor of the more sordid portion of his interview. He clearly should have taken a more apologetic tone in the first place, but he’ll surely point to the second half of his comments when meeting with teams in an effort to curb the sting of his jarring comments. As for his actions against Aguilar, it’s unclear exactly how he could justify that behavior.

Looking strictly at the on-field fit, adding Machado would create some problems for the Yankees — at least on the defensive side of the equation. For all of rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar’s accolades at the plate, he rated as the worst defensive third baseman in the Majors this past season by measure of Defensive Runs Saved (-25), Ultimate Zone Rating (-16.0) and Revised Zone Rating (.634). Machado’s glovework at shortstop also checked in well below average, and while he made some improvements as the season wore on, the defensive pairing of Andujar and Machado on the left side of the infield would be lacking.

That dovetails, to an extent, with the Yankees’ need for rotation improvements. Andujar’s bat makes him a fan favorite in the Bronx, but there’s been plenty of speculation that he could also be used as a trade chip in order to acquire some rotation help. Machado could slide over to third base in that instance, with Gleyber Torres assuming his natural position at shortstop. That’d free the Yankees to peruse a deep slate of options at second base, where free-agent options would include Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie, among others.

Including Andujar in a trade for rotation help is far from a given and is but one of many possibilities that Cashman and his staff figure to explore when looking to add to a group that is still unsettled even after re-signing CC Sabathia almost immediately after free agency began. Trade possibilities will be plentiful, with James Paxton, Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and even Indians stars Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer seeing their names surface in early offseason rumors. Free agency will have its options, too; Patrick Corbin heads up the free-agent market and has been connected to the Yankees for the better part of a season. Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Nathan Eovaldi are among the next tier of names that could be considered.

Of course, the Yankees have a trade candidate of their own on the roster at present. Sonny Gray’s time in Yankee pinstripes is all but finished, as Cashman as taken the somewhat uncommon approach of publicly declaring that a change of scenery is likely best for Gray. At least five clubs already have interest in Gray, who was generally excellent away from Yankee Stadium in 2018, so the Yankees should find a trade partner — perhaps even one willing to send something of modest 2019 value in return.

However things shake out with Gray, the Yankees seem likely to add multiple starting options this winter. Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and Sabathia are currently penciled into the rotation, and while fans are anxiously anticipating the day when Justus Sheffield receives an earnest look as a starter, the team would be better served if Sheffield were able to be eased into the mix rather than thrown into the fire and counted on as a contributor from day one. Beyond Sheffield, names like Jonathan Loaisiga, Domingo German and Chance Adams can be viewed as depth options or possible bullpen pieces, depending on organizational preference.

On the subject of the bullpen, the Yankees already have an imposing group of relievers that could withstand the losses of both David Robertson and Zach Britton. Currently, the relief corps is anchored by Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green. Jonathan Holder made strong strides in 2018, as well, while Tommy Kahnle remains with the club as a high-upside option coming off a disastrous 2018 campaign. That’s a nice foundation to a strong ’pen, but there’s clearly room for the Yankees to add to the mix — with a possible emphasis on looking at options who throw from the left side. A reunion with either Robertson or Britton would certainly make sense, but there should be quality options at more affordable rates in free agency. The trade market, too, will feature myriad options as it does every offseason (as explored in MLBTR’s Market Snapshots for righty and lefty relievers).

As far as the Yankees’ lineup is concerned, there’s arguably only a true need for one significant upgrade — be it at shortstop to replace Gregorius for half the season or at second base in the event that Torres slides over to short in Sir Didi’s absence. Beyond the bevy of corner outfield options noted above, Aaron Hicks delivered a terrific all-around season in center and should be counted on as the primary option there. Voit’s Herculean showing in September may have earned him a legitimate look at first base, leaving Greg Bird behind as a leapfrogged depth option. Perhaps relying on a pair of players who are still largely unproven would be leaving too much to chance for the Yankees, however. If that’s the case, then there’s no reason they couldn’t make a legitimate run at perennial NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, for whom the D-backs are reportedly open to exploring trades. Goldschmidt is only a season away from reaching free agency, but would be a massive addition to the lineup and the rental scenario has its advantages as well. (He wouldn’t tie the organization’s hands in the long run and the club could anticipate recouping draft compensation through the qualifying offer system at season’s end.)

Gary Sanchez struggled through a miserable season at the plate, but he’s since undergone left shoulder surgery to address an issue that could certainly have impacted his swing. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. I’d argue that the Yankees could be well-served to add a backup option with more offensive upside than Romine — particularly with Sanchez now recovering from surgery — but Cashman suggested last season that non-tendering Romine was never really a consideration. Romine, to his credit, showed more power than ever in 2018 and seemed to take a legitimate step forward with the bat — all while delivering solid defensive contributions.

Perhaps for the Yankees, then, the rest of the bench will be the primary area of focus once the middle-infield situation is sorted. Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes and recent waiver claim Hanser Alberto are among the top options for a utility infield role, but none brings much in the way of offense to the table. There’s arguably no great need for a player of Marwin Gonzalez’s caliber, but there’s also little denying that he’d strengthen the bench and give the Yankees the type of versatility that teams increasingly covet. While he’ll be substantially move expensive than Neil Walker was last winter, Gonzalez would fill the role Walker occupied much more capably for years to come. In theory, he could even be the Yankees’ primary infield addition if Machado lands elsewhere, as he’d be more than capable of starting at second base while Gregorius mends.

That’s likely too great a focus on one individual option, however — particularly one who’d fit on virtually any team in the league. Any of Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera or Josh Harrison could be fits in a semi-regular role before shifting to a utility capacity when the Yankees are at full strength. If the organizational preference is to simply find a strong defender to replace Gregorius in the early going, either Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis could fit that bill before moving into a utility role later on, though neither brings much offensive excitement to the table.

Generally speaking, the Yankees have the ability to spend at levels that far outpace their financial behavior in recent offseasons. New York has $156MM on the books in 2019 (including arbitration projections and pre-arb players) and would see that number dip to $147MM if and when Gray is traded. That’s a relative pittance for a club that has opened the season with a $200MM+ payroll eight times dating back to the 2008 season. And, taking a long-term look, the Yankees have just two contracts on the books as soon as 2021 — those of Stanton and Chapman, either of whom could technically opt out of their contracts before that point.

Viewed through that lens, the Yankees have the resources to be as bold as they like this offseason. The most straightforward approach could include something like signing Machado and Corbin while also trading for Paxton, and they’d have the financial means to not only do so with ease but to do so with the knowledge that such an aggressive slate of moves could come with just a single year of luxury tax penalties. That’s but one example of the manner in which the Yankees could operate this winter — and, likely, one that is too simplistic — but serves to underscore one bottom-line point: if they wish to do so, the Yankees are better-positioned than at any point in the past half decade to emulate the “Evil Empire” era with a hyper-aggressive series of offseason expenditures.

Pitching Market Rumors: Gray, Corbin, Anibal, Keuchel, Parker

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The Yankees have received multiple offers for right-hander Sonny Gray and are currently in the process of evaluating them, per SNY’s Andy Martino. GM Brian Cashman has been unusually candid about his plan to move the obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and interest in buying low on the talented righty has reportedly been robust. Gray, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility next year, pitched quite well away from Yankee Stadium and maintained his velocity and ability to miss bats. But he was frequently shelled in the Bronx and ultimately lost his rotation spot late in the season. The Reds are among the teams who’ve been prominently connected to Gray recently, though it stands to reason that upwards of half the league could have interest given his track record.

More rumblings on the market for pitching and bullpen help…

  • The Phillies have been primarily connected to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in free agency, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Phils are also eyeing left-hander Patrick Corbin. Philadelphia has substantial payroll flexibility and a sense of urgency on the heels of a late 2018 collapse, but they’ll surely face quite a bit of competition in a pursuit of Corbin. The Yankees and Nationals, too, have shown early interest in Corbin.
  • Morosi also notes within that column that the Brewers are exploring the market for rotation help and have shown some preliminary interest in righty Anibal Sanchez. The 34-year-old parlayed a minor league deal with the Braves into an absolutely brilliant rebound campaign that landed him 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Beyond a 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 134 1/3 innings, Sanchez also allowed the least hard contact of any pitcher in the game, per Statcast.
  • Speaking of generating weak contact, that skill will be at the forefront of agent Scott Boras’ pitch to teams when marketing lefty Dallas Keuchel, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Boras, speaking to Rosenthal, tabbed Keuchel as the “soft-contact genius of his era” — and though the title is dripping with characteristic Boras hyperbole, it’s also underscored by truth. As Rosenthal points out, Keuchel leads the Majors in soft-contact rate (26.9 percent) since his big league debut. Boras notes that Keuchel’s age-26 through age-30 seasons stack up comparably with those of Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine as well — another semi-outlandish but also factual claim that’ll no doubt be in his pitch to owners and top-ranking baseball ops executives.
  • Rosenthal also reports that while the Angels are looking to add to both the bullpen and the rotation, it’s also possible they’ll listen to offers on right-hander Blake Parker. The 33-year-old Parker has been terrific find for GM Billy Eppler, pitching to a 2.90 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 22 saves in 133 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in December 2016. Parker is arbitration-eligible this winter and projected to earn $3.1MM and is controllable through the 2020 season.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.

Latest On Manny Machado’s Market

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Manny Machado’s now-infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments and the incident in which appeared to deliberately clip Jesus Aguilar’s foot on a play at first base have made him more of a lightning rod than ever, and there’ll be no shortage of speculation on the degree to which he damaged his free-agent stock (if at all) as the offseason wears on. Asked about Machado’s comments, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said it would be “essential” for GM Brian Cashman to have a heart-to-heart with the 26-year-old as part of any legitimate pursuit (link via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale).

Steinbrenner emphasized that regardless of the price tag attached to a player, such comments are “clearly troubling” and “ain’t going to sell where we play baseball.” He also indicated that makeup is crucial when identifying targets and, without specifying names, suggested that some players have already been ruled out by the Yankees because the organization doesn’t feel they’d handle playing in New York well. Machado, Nightengale notes, is not one of that bunch. The YES Network’s Michael Kay agrees with that notion, as he said on-air today that he gets a sense the Yankees are “in on Machado in a serious way” (Twitter link).

Some more Machado chatter in the early stages of free agency…

  • Drama aside, Machado is still an ideal target for the Phillies, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia opines. Salisbury reports that Phillies officials do indeed have some concerns about Machado’s makeup, though he rightly notes that Machado is largely the same player/person he’s always been — even if those ill-timed comments came while playing on the biggest possible stage. Concerns notwithstanding, the Phils are still very much open to pursuing Machado. Salisbury quotes general manager Matt Klentak from last week’s GM Meetings: “If you’re trying to find the young free agent who’s good at everything and a prince in the clubhouse, you’re going to be looking for a long time.”
  • The Giants may be an oft-cited speculative landing spot for Bryce Harper, but Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that San Francisco is completely “out” on Machado for more than just financial considerations. Pavlovic notes that it’s true there’s no immediately apparent spot for Machado in San Francisco anyway, though he reports that some throughout the game believe new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi will look for a way to move the remainder of Evan Longoria’s contract this winter. Even if that happens, though, Machado would not emerge as an option for the Giants, according to Pavlovic.
  • Meanwhile, NBC’s Vinnie Duber takes a look what the oft-suggested fit between the White Sox and Machado. While the Sox undoubtedly have the long-term payroll capacity and an opening at third base, Machado’s preference is to play shortstop, where Tim Anderson made positive strides in 2018 after being signed as a long-term option there. Duber also notes that Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments wouldn’t sit well with recently extended manager Rick Renteria, who has previously benched multiple players for failure to adhere to fundamentals such as running out grounders and pop-ups. GM Rick Hahn recently praised the “culture of accountability” that Renteria has created (link via Duber), adding that it’s important for the organization that its players buy into said culture.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado

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The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…

  • Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
  • Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
  • The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
  • Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
  • Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
  • For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
  • As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado’s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.
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