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MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | December 31, 2017 at 9:25am CDT

Here’s the roundup of all the original content from the MLBTR writing team through the holiday season…

  • The offseason’s biggest news continues to be the relative lack of news on the free agent front, with most of the top names on the open market still looking for new teams as we head into 2018.  Back on December 19, Jeff Todd noted that only 17 of the names on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had signed new contracts.  Since that date, only three additional players (Wade Davis, Yonder Alonso, Jhoulys Chacin) have signed, with Davis being the only member of the top 10 to find a new deal.
  • Two of the remaining notables were subjects of the “Free Agent Profile” series, with Kyle Downing profiling Logan Morrison and Tim Dierkes looking at Lance Lynn’s market.
  • Lynn is one of a large number of free agent pitchers who have undergone at least one Tommy John surgery, so Tim’s list of the 20 biggest contracts signed by TJ patients will certainly look quite different after this offseason is complete.
  • The Phillies’ surprise signing of Carlos Santana inspired Tim to look at five recent instances of a seeming non-contender making a big free agent splash.
  • In the latest edition of Free Agent Faceoff, Steve Adams asked the MLBTR readership whether they would rather sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.  60.23% of readers polled chose Darvish in the battle of the winter’s top free agent starters.
  • In other polling news, Connor Byrne asked the readers where Eric Hosmer will sign, Tim made the same query about Arrieta’s next team, while Kyle wondered if any of the top free agents could sign a one-year “pillow contract” rather than a longer-term deal.
  • The “Taking Inventory” series lists the potential remaining trade chips on rebuilding teams, with Steve looking at the Tigers and Kyle focusing on the White Sox and the Marlins.
  • Speaking of Miami, J.T. Realmuto could be the latest Marlins star to be shipped out of town, as Kyle runs through the potential trade market for the catcher.
  • Mark Polishuk outlined each team’s weakest position from 2017 (by bWAR) and what each club has so far done (if anything) to upgrade that position for next season.
  • Several managers and front office executives are known to be entering their last guaranteed year under contract, and Jeff has the breakdown of these teams that could be weighing a change in leadership in 2018.
  • We just passed the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees.  Jeff looked back on that deal, which generated quite a bit of off-the-field controversy and ultimately generated more top tier young talent for the Yankees (via their subsequent trade of Chapman to the Cubs) than it did for Cincinnati.
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MLBTR Originals

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NL Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Difo, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 10:11pm CDT

Happy birthday to Sandy Koufax, as the legendary Dodgers southpaw turns 82 years old today.  Arm injuries forced Koufax into an early retirement after his age-30 season, bringing an end to arguably the most dominant four-year stretch of pitching in baseball history.  From 1963-66, Koufax posted a 1.86 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.74 K/BB rate over 1192 2/3 innings, capturing three Cy Young Awards and the 1963 NL MVP Award.

Some items from around the National League…

  • Nick Williams seems to be the likeliest of the Phillies outfielders to be used as a trade chip, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes, though there’s also a case to be made for the team to move one of Odubel Herrera or Aaron Altherr.  (Rhys Hoskins almost surely is staying put.)  Given that all three outfielders, and even Hoskins, have their share of question marks and can’t be entirely counted on as sure things going into 2018, Murphy notes that the Phillies might indeed stick to their stated plan of keeping all four players and juggling playing time based on matchups and situations.  Plans could change, of course, if the Phils are required to include one of the players in a trade for a young and controllable starting pitcher.
  • The Phillies are known to be looking for pitching, though NBCSports.com Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes that the team could wait until the July trade deadline to make a big addition to the rotation.  Asking prices could be lower for some pitchers by July, or the Phillies could have a better idea of what young players they’d be more comfortable giving up in a trade.  Interestingly, Salisbury notes that Cole Hamels could be targeted by the Phils if the Rangers fall out of contention, as both Hamels and the Phillies would have interest in the 2008 World Series hero returning to Philadelphia.
  • The Nationals rejected trade offers for Wilmer Difo last offseason, and now the young infielder is a key part of the team’s bench and potentially its second baseman of the future, the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo writes.  Difo held his own filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop last season, and if Difo continues to progress at the plate, the Nats might consider him as a possible second base option if Daniel Murphy leaves in free agency next winter.  If Murphy’s recovery from offseason knee surgery lingers past Opening Day, Difo could get an early audition at the keystone in April.
  • Since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs front office, pitchers drafted by the team have delivered just 30 innings in a Cubs uniform, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports (subscription required and recommended).  While Chicago has obviously excelled at acquiring undervalued starting pitching assets in trades, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve on its development of young pitchers, which was one reason Jim Benedict was recently hired as a special assistant within the baseball ops department.
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Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Washington Nationals Aaron Altherr Cole Hamels Nick Williams Odubel Herrera Wilmer Difo

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No Extension Talks Between Twins, Brian Dozier

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 8:28pm CDT

The Twins have yet to speak to Brian Dozier about a contract extension, the second baseman tells Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Dozier entering the last season of his contract, the two sides have had “zero conversations about after next year,” Dozier said.

The lack of negotiations isn’t necessarily a surprise at this point in the offseason, of course, as most teams generally handle focus on signings, trade talks, and arbitration cases before turning their attention to in-house extensions.  (This winter’s particularly-stalled free agent market could even delay extension business later into Spring Training than usual for some clubs.)  Beyond Dozier, the Twins also have Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar slated to hit the open market after the 2018 season, with Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney also candidates for free agency depending on club options.

Still, Dozier stands out as Minnesota’s top impending free agent priority, though the idea of an extension between the two sides (or even Dozier still being in a Twins uniform entering 2018) seemed far-fetched at this point last year.  Dozier has long been the subject of trade rumors, and at one point in the 2016-17 offseason seemed to be on the verge of being dealt to the Dodgers.  Even last summer, Dozier was one of several Twins veterans the team was weighing as trade chips, though Minnesota eventually rebounded to capture a berth in the AL Wild Card game.

Last season’s surprising success changed the equation for the Twins, who are now exploring ways to build around its young core of talent in the hopes of contending again next year.  As such, keeping Dozier now looks like it could be a possibility, particularly since Minnesota has quite a bit of payroll flexibility beyond the 2018 season.  (Of course, the Twins might add to those future commitments in a significant way this offseason should they land a top free agent pitcher.)

Dozier is finishing up a previous extension with the Twins, a four-year/$20MM deal that covered his final pre-arbitration season and his three years of arbitration eligibility.  That contract ended up being a nice bargain for the Twins through Dozier’s arb years, as he has continued to perform as one of the game’s best second basemen, particularly over the last two seasons.  Dozier has hit .269/.349/.521 with 76 homers and 34 steals (out of 43 chances) over 1396 PA since the start of the 2016 season, accumulating 10.9 fWAR over that period.  From 2014-17, Dozier has been worth 18.8 fWAR, a total topped by only 13 other position players in all of baseball.

Dozier turns 31 in May, so an extension carries some risk as it would be covering a potential decline period as he leaves his prime.  The lack of return on the Twins’ extensions for Mauer and Phil Hughes could also make the team wary about another long-term deal.  On the flip side, Dozier has been a durable player, and 2017 was his most polished season yet as a hitter, with Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noting Dozier’s increased success at hitting to the opposite field.

In his preview of the Twins’ offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Daniel Murphy’s three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals or Justin Turner’s four-year, $64MM Dodgers contract as potential talking points for a Dozier extension, with Turner’s deal standing out as the better comparable.  One interesting wrinkle could be the fact that, without an extension, Dozier would be competing with several other superstar players in the very crowded 2018-19 free agent class.  Dozier would have an advantage, however, as the clear top option on the second base market.

If an extension isn’t worked out, the Twins will likely explore trading Dozier at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.  For now, however, it looks like the Twins aren’t moving the second baseman, which is something Dozier appreciates after so much past speculation.  “It’s kind of funny how winning can change a lot of different things as far as offseason trade talks,” Dozier said.  “I recognize it’s a business. We all do. But it has been pretty relieving not hearing my name every single day about where I might be traded. That’s a good thing.”

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Minnesota Twins Brian Dozier

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Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/17

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 7:21pm CDT

Some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Padres released right-hander Jake Smith earlier this month, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  Originally a 48th-round pick for the Giants in the 2011 draft, Smith has a 3.23 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 253 2/3 minor league innings, working as a reliever in all but five of his 186 career appearances.  He managed just 26 2/3 IP in 2017, however, with injuries limiting his time on the field.  Smith’s only MLB experience consists of four innings for San Diego in 2016.
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San Diego Padres Transactions Jake Smith

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Rockies Notes: Davis, Bridich, Holland, Arenado, Harrison

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 6:11pm CDT

The signings of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee have given the Rockies a deep and experienced relief corps, though ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required and recommended) wonders if the team needed to go to such expensive lengths to reinforce its bullpen.  Other teams who have relied on excellent pens in recent seasons, Law notes, have generally used their own homegrown arms or low-cost converted starters as relievers rather than sign several pricey free agents.  Law also isn’t a fan of the three-year, $52MM Davis contract in general, citing Davis’ injuries and dip in performance over the last two seasons from his 2014-15 dominance.

Here’s more on the Rockies from GM Jeff Bridich’s chat with reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and the Denver Post’s Nick Groke) on Friday…

  • Despite the mutual interest between Colorado and former closer Greg Holland, the two sides weren’t able to reach agreement on a reunion, with Bridich saying two weeks ago that the team had made Holland a “strong offer” to re-sign.  It seems as if the Rockies then made a swift pivot to Davis, as while Davis and the team had been linked earlier this winter, Bridich said the deal was made just within the last week.
  • After so heavily remaking the bullpen, the Rockies are likely done with pitching additions altogether.  “I’d be very surprised if we added another reliever or a starter,” Bridich said.
  • The next step would seem to be addressing needs in the corner outfield or at first base.  In Harding’s words, Bridich was “open, but non-committal” about the idea of re-signing Carlos Gonzalez, with the GM simply noting that Gonzalez was “part of the market.”
  • While Bridich didn’t put a timetable on extension talks with Nolan Arenado, “there definitely are conversations that will happen” about locking up the star third baseman.  Teams generally wait until Spring Training or until significant offseason business has been concluded to discuss extensions with their players, and the negotiations with Arenado will no doubt be particularly in-depth given the huge money needed to keep him at Coors Field.  Arenado is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2019 season, when he’ll still just be 28 years old and in the midst of his prime.  Arenado and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $29.5MM deal last offseason to cover two arbitration years, and Arenado has one final arb-eligible season remaining in 2019 due to his Super Two status.
  • “I’m not sure where the Josh Harrison stuff comes from,” Bridich said in regards to rumors connecting the Rockies to the versatile Pirates infielder/outfielder.  It should be noted that this isn’t technically a denial of any trade interest, though Harrison is perhaps a better fit on a team that could make fuller use of his multi-positional ability.  The Rockies have Arenado and DJ LeMahieu locked in at third and second base, respectively, so Harrison would spend most of his time as a corner outfielder if he did land on Colorado’s roster.  (Then again, given that the Rox did sign Ian Desmond last winter with the intent of using him as a first baseman, maybe we shouldn’t rule out any outside-the-box ideas in regards to this team.)
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Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Carlos Gonzalez Greg Holland Jeff Bridich Josh Harrison Nolan Arenado Wade Davis

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How Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2017

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 3:57pm CDT

While this winter has been notably thin on major transactions, several clubs have already made big strides to shore up the positions that plagued them last season.  Baseball Reference breaks down how all 30 teams fared in 2017 on a position-by-position basis, as ranked by bWAR.  Here’s a rundown of what each team has done to address its most glaring weak point…

Angels (DH, -1.3 bWAR): Shohei Ohtani’s attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues will be one of baseball’s most fascinating stories in 2018, and the Angels are intent on giving the Japanese star some DH at-bats on days he isn’t pitching.  Even if it takes a while for Ohtani to adjust to MLB pitching, there’s really nowhere to go but up for the Angels at the DH spot in the wake of Albert Pujols’ career-worst year.  The Halos can only hope that the slugger (owed $114MM through 2021) still has something left in the tank as he enters his age-38 season.  One plus is that Pujols has enjoyed a normal offseason this year, as opposed to surgeries and rehabs in the previous two winters, and L.A. hopes to even deploy Pujols at first base for a couple of games per week to accommodate Ohtani at designated hitter.

Astros (DH, 0.5 bWAR): Age finally caught up with Carlos Beltran in 2017, as the veteran struggled in what ended up being his final Major League season.  With Beltran now retired, the Astros plan to use Evan Gattis as their primary designated hitter, though you could see several players rotated through the DH spot to provide rest and at-bats to Houston’s wide array of talented hitters.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.2 bWAR): Bruce Maxwell, Josh Phegley, and Stephen Vogt (who is now a Brewer) didn’t give the A’s much behind the plate last year, and the position was further complicated after Maxwell was arrested on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and disorderly conduct.  While GM David Forst said in November that the team still expects Maxwell to be its primary catcher next season, Oakland stands out as a potential dark horse candidate for a catching upgrade.  Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila are notable names on the free agent market, and J.T. Realmuto seems to be available if the A’s are willing to meet the Marlins’ very high asking price.

Blue Jays (Right field, -1.4 bWAR): The Jose Bautista era ended on a sour note, as the longtime slugger delivered sub-replacement numbers in his final season in Toronto.  Teoscar Hernandez is the favorite for the right field job after his strong late-season debut with the Jays, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Toronto make a big acquisition for either corner outfield slot, especially since the team’s contention window is already closing.  The Blue Jays have reportedly checked in on several notable outfielders, including J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Jay Bruce.

Braves (Left field, -1.6 bWAR): This was the lowest bWAR of any left field situation in the game last season, largely thanks to Matt Kemp’s sub-replacement level performance.  Kemp, however, is no longer in the mix after a unique five-player trade with the Dodgers that re-arranged both teams’ salary commitments and created a much-needed opening in Atlanta’s outfield for star prospect Ronald Acuna.  It isn’t clear if Acuna will play in left or right field when he arrives in the bigs, so veteran Nick Markakis (if he isn’t himself traded) could be taking over for Kemp in left field on Opening Day.

Brewers (Center field, 1.0 bWAR): Keon Broxton is the incumbent with Brett Phillips on hand as a platoon option, though star prospect Lewis Brinson is expected to work his way into the lineup in 2018.  While Milwaukee’s young center field mix didn’t produce much in 2017, therefore, the team is still quite comfortable with the position going forward.  Broxton has even received some trade attention, so it’s possible the Brew Crew could clear a path for Brinson to make an even earlier impact.

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Cardinals (Right field, 1.4 bWAR): The Cards were looking to both acquire and move outfielders this winter, as they looked to land a big bat while dealing from their surplus of young and/or struggling younger outfielders.  After getting in deep with the Marlins on the Giancarlo Stanton talks, St. Louis ended up landing another Miami outfielder in Marcell Ozuna.  His addition will shift Tommy Pham to center field and Dexter Fowler into right, as even Fowler’s middling 2017 numbers provide a marked upgrade over what Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk provided last year.  The team dealt from its surplus by trading Piscotty to the A’s, though the Cardinals have enough depth in both the outfield and infield that they still have the pieces for another big swap.

Cubs (Left field, 1.0 bWAR): It’s too soon for Chicago to give up on Kyle Schwarber, especially now that the slugger is another year removed from major knee surgery.  The Cubs pride themselves on multi-positional roster depth, so if Schwarber needs to be spelled, Ian Happ or Ben Zobrist can also handle left field, though Zobrist is also looking for a bounce-back year.

Diamondbacks (Left field, 0.4 bWAR): With J.D. Martinez unlikely to return to Arizona’s outfield, the D’Backs are hoping that Yasmany Tomas is healthy (after groin injuries and core surgery) and finally primed for a true breakout season.  The team really has no choice but to be patient, as Tomas is owed $42.5MM through the 2020 season and has little trade value.

Dodgers (Center field, 1.4 bWAR): “Weak spot” is kind of a relative term on a stacked Dodgers roster.  Breakout star Chris Taylor got more and more time in center as the season went on, and Taylor looks to get the bulk of the playing time up the middle this season with Joc Pederson shifting over to left field.  The Dodgers have a lot of platoon depth on hand to further augment their outfield, plus the impending arrival of top prospect Alex Verdugo.  A big trade can’t be ruled out, as Taylor’s versatility allows L.A. to potentially shift him elsewhere around the diamond.

Giants (Center field, -1.7 bWAR): San Francisco’s outfield was an overall disaster in 2017, with all three positions delivering negative-bWAR totals.  The Giants have been aggressively searching the market for all sorts of outfield help, and made one potential addition-by-subtraction move by trading Denard Span to the Rays as part of the Evan Longoria deal.  Span’s inclusion in the trade was mostly due to offset salaries, though his declining center field glove made him a liability in spacious AT&T Park.  The Giants have checked in on numerous trade and free agent options for center, though they could end up going with defensively-gifted prospect Steven Duggar as long as they can find at least one big bat for the corner spots.

Indians (Right field, 1.1 bWAR): The Lonnie Chisenhall/Brandon Guyer platoon looks to be in effect for 2018 at the moment, though the Tribe has multiple other outfield options (Abraham Almonte, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin, and maybe even minors signing Melvin Upton) to provide depth not just in right field, but also for the injury-plagued Michael Brantley in left.

Mariners (First base, 0.7 bWAR): GM Jerry Dipoto made a play for what he hopes is a long-term asset at first base by acquiring Ryon Healy from the A’s in mid-November.  Healy has shown little plate discipline but some solid pop during his brief big league career, and he’ll now get a clear everyday opportunity in Seattle.  Dan Vogelbach and Rule 5 Draft pick Mike Ford could provide a left-handed hitting complement to Healy at the position.

Marlins (Bullpen, -0.9 bWAR): Miami’s relief corps was the worst in the game by the bWAR metric, though with another rebuild underway, the Marlins are unlikely to do much in the way of high-profile additions.  The bullpen will be the testing ground for whatever young arms don’t make the starting rotation, plus maybe a couple of low-cost veterans added on minor league contracts.

Mets (Third base/shortstop, 0.2 bWAR): The left side of the infield was a problem spot for the Mets all season, though they already seem to have the two positions settled for next year.  Top prospect Amed Rosario will be the everyday shortstop, while New York exercised its $8.5MM club option on Asdrubal Cabrera and will use him regularly at third base.  David Wright could also be a factor at the hot corner, though it isn’t known if Wright will ever be able to take the field again given his injury history.

Nationals (Catcher, -1.7 bWAR): No team got less from its catching situation in 2017, as Matt Wieters delivered a terrible year both offensively and as a pitch-framer.  Wieters exercised his $10.5MM player option for 2018, leaving the Nats stuck with a major hole in their lineup unless Wieters can get on track after three seasons of steady offensive decline.  The team may need to get creative to upgrade at catcher given Wieters’ salary, though the Nats have already asked the Marlins about Realmuto’s availability.

Orioles (Right field/DH, 0.0 bWAR): Baltimore’s much-maligned rotation managed a cumulative 0.1 bWAR, so the right field and designated hitter positions were actually the Orioles’ biggest weak spots last season.  Mark Trumbo’s poor season factored into both positions, while Seth Smith could hit but wasn’t much of a fielder, and Joey Rickard flashed a strong glove but provided nothing at the plate.  Top prospect Austin Hays is expected to provide help in right perhaps as early as Opening Day, while the Orioles will hope Trumbo (owed $26MM over the next two years) can rebound.

Padres (Catcher, -0.5 bWAR): Austin Hedges’ outstanding defense wasn’t enough to offset the severe lack of offensive production from both Hedges and backups Hector Sanchez and Luis Torrens.  San Diego is committed to Hedges as its catcher of the future, and is certainly willing to allow him some growing pains at the plate if he keeps displaying such excellent glovework.

Phillies (First base, -0.2 bWAR): Rhys Hoskins’ late-season explosion came too late to save the Phils’ woeful first base production, plus Hoskins also spent half his time as a left fielder.  The team’s right fielders were next on the list with a cumulative -0.1 bWAR, so both positions were upgraded by Philadelphia’s surprising move to sign Carlos Santana.  The longtime Cleveland slugger instantly provides a big boost at first, while Hoskins’ move to left field and Aaron Altherr becoming the regular right fielder will reinforce both corner positions, and keep shaky defender Nick Williams as a part-timer.

Pirates (Right field, -0.5 bWAR): Gregory Polanco’s injury-riddled season left both the outfielder and his team wishing for better health in 2018.  While the Bucs could add another outfielder either as a backup or as a starter if Andrew McCutchen is traded, Polanco’s spot is safe.

Rangers (Second base, -0.3 bWAR): After Rougned Odor signed a six-year, $49.5MM extension in late March, he took an enormous step back at the plate, hitting just .204/.252/.397 over 651 PA despite 30 home runs.  The Rangers can only hope that his 2017 was just an aberration after making such a big financial commitment to the young second baseman.

Rays (Catcher, 0.6 bWAR): This is hardly the first time that catcher has been the weakest spot on the diamond in Tampa, though the team has at least a short-term solution in place in Wilson Ramos.  His recovery from knee surgery kept him from making his 2017 debut until late June, and the Rays are hoping another offseason of rest and recovery will get Ramos back in his 2016 form.

Reds (Starting pitching, -1.8 bWAR): After posting the lowest cumulative bWAR of any rotation in baseball, the rebuilding Reds won’t be making any big signings, aside from maybe an inning-eating veteran on a minor league contract.  Instead, Cincinnati is counting on better health and continued development from its young arms.

Red Sox (DH, -0.1 bWAR): Shoulder problems bothered Hanley Ramirez for much of the year, and the Sox are hoping that surgery can help the slugger return to his excellent 2016 form.  There continue to be rumblings that Boston is interested in landing a big bat, however, so Ramirez could potentially find himself in a DH timeshare or, health permitting, seeing more time at first base depending on what other hitter the Red Sox may or may not add.

Rockies (Left field/right field, -0.5 bWAR): Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Desmond’s struggles are well-documented, though it’s worth noting that while Gerardo Parra hit .309/.341/.452 over 425 PA, that still worked out to a below-average 90 wRC+ for a player who called Coors Field home.  It doesn’t seem like CarGo will return and, with the option of using Desmond at first base, Colorado could still make a big splash for corner outfield help.

Royals (Shortstop, -0.2 bWAR): Alcides Escobar’s glove has always bailed out his subpar bat, though since his fielding was only decent in 2017, it led to an overall poor season for the veteran and it gave K.C. the lowest bWAR total of any team at shortstop.  With Escobar now a free agent, the Royals will go with young Raul Mondesi Jr. as their new shortstop.  Mondesi may be able to top Escobar’s bWAR based on defense alone in 2018, and his impressive Triple-A numbers suggest a lot of upside at the plate.

Tigers (DH, -0.3 bWAR): The chief concern is that Victor Martinez is healthy after twice suffering irregular heartbeat issues last year and undergoing chronic ablation surgery in September.  The hope is that V-Mart is able to return without any further issues, and if he displays some of his old hitting form, the Tigers could then potentially shop him at the trade deadline.  The rebuilding team could also give Martinez extra rest to give Miguel Cabrera some DH days or to give at-bats to some younger players.

Twins (Bullpen, 1.6 bWAR): Minnesota will take part in the Fernando Rodney Experience after signing the veteran closer to a one-year, $4.25MM deal with a club option for 2019.  Rodney steps into the closer’s job while newly-signed Zach Duke will add another left-handed element (along with Taylor Rogers) to the pen.  Some more moves are likely to come, and a reunion with free agent Matt Belisle can’t be ruled out.  While the Twins certainly needed to upgrade their bullpen, it’s worth noting that no team had more bWAR from its “worst position” than the Twins received from their relief corps.  This high talent floor on the roster may explain how the Twins made their surprise run to a wild card berth.

White Sox (Center field, -0.8 fWAR): Injuries shortened Leury Garcia’s season and kept Charlie Tilson off the field entirely in 2017, while Adam Engel provided speed and defense but no hitting whatsoever.  Garcia looks like the favorite for the bulk of action in center to begin the year in Chicago, though this position is very much in flux depending on Tilson’s health.

Yankees (First base, 0.0 bWAR): After missing all of 2016 and most of 2017 due to injury, Greg Bird showed enough down the stretch to reinforce the Yankees’ confidence in him as their first baseman of the future.  It’s possible that a veteran could be signed to a minors deal to join Tyler Austin as the primary backups at the position, as Chase Headley is no longer around to provide cover at first base.

Note: Designated hitter was technically the weakest position by bWAR for several National League teams, though those weren’t counted since NL teams so rarely have a DH in the lineup.

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MLBTR Originals

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AL East Notes: Yankees, Red Sox, Machado

By Connor Byrne | December 30, 2017 at 2:45pm CDT

The latest from the American League East…

  • While the Yankees have been trying to trade for a starting pitcher recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the infield should be a greater priority for the club. The Yankees have a full complement of starters on hand, after all, while they’ve lost second baseman Starlin Castro and the third base duo of Chase Headley and Todd Frazier since last season. With that in mind, Sherman runs down a host of veteran infielders the Yankees could add either via free agency or the trade market. Notably, Sherman senses that the Yankees have never been bullish on free agent infielder Brandon Phillips, which would seem to rule out one potential target. Sherman goes on to suggest that the Yankees have had questions about whether Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie has the temperament to play in New York. So, while Lowrie looks like a prime trade candidate, it doesn’t appear he’ll end up in the Bronx.
  • Rob Bradford of WEEI explains why the Red Sox’s interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado is unlikely to lead to a deal, contending that the two sides don’t match up well in a trade. The Red Sox already have a quality shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, whom they could theoretically package with a pitcher(s) to land Machado, but that would perhaps be too risky on the team’s part. Machado is only under control for another season, while Bogaerts has two more years left. What’s more, the Red Sox don’t seem to have the high-level pitching to entice the Orioles, as Bradford notes that top prospects Jason Groome. Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata haven’t gotten past the Single-A level yet.
  • The Red Sox haven’t participated in the robust relief market this winter, and it’s likely to stay that way until they have an answer on free agent slugger J.D. Martinez’s future, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. If Martinez signs elsewhere, the Red Sox could use some of the money they were going to give him on relief help, observes Mastrodonato, who points out that their righty-heavy bullpen could use some balance. Tony Watson and Brian Duensing are among the top southpaw setup men currently without teams.
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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Brandon Phillips Jed Lowrie Manny Machado

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Padres To Sign Chris Young

By Jeff Todd | December 30, 2017 at 1:30pm CDT

SATURDAY: Young’s incentives begin at five games started and 30 innings pitched, and they can max out at approximately 30 starts and 120 innings, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link).

FRIDAY, 8:58pm: Young can earn a $1MM base salary if he makes the team, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The deal also includes as much as $6MM in potential incentives, with games started and innings pitched providing the standard.

6:50pm: The Padres are adding another former starter on a minors deal after striking agreement with Chris Young, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). The 38-year-old will join a Spring Training rotation battle that now also includes Tyson Ross.

Young, 38, opened the 2017 campaign with the Royals but was released in late June. He has rested up since, with reports indicating that he intended to ramp back up for another attempt at what would be his 14th MLB campaign.

At this point, it’s difficult to expect much out of Young, who stumbled to a 6.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 118 2/3 frames in the majors since the start of 2016. Interestingly, that slippage has occurred even with Young sporting a swinging-strike rate of over 11% — levels he had maintained over a full season only once in his career — by drastically increasing his slider usage. Then again, he has also been touched for 2.7 home runs per nine over the past two seasons.

Perhaps, though, Young can still find a way to be effective, particularly after a lengthy layoff. Before boosting his whiff rate, he had actually managed two consecutive seasons with excellent results. In 288 1/3 frames between 2014 and 2015, he worked to a 3.40 ERA. And he has continued to post above-average infield fly rates even as the other tinkering has left him prone to the long ball.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Chris Young

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Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 12:31pm CDT

In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Taking Inventory 2017 Brad Ziegler Christian Yelich Dan Straily Derek Dietrich J.T. Realmuto Junichi Tazawa Justin Bour Kyle Barraclough Martin Prado Starlin Castro Wei-Yin Chen

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National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 9:31am CDT

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.

Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.

More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…

  • Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
  • Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.
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Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins Pittsburgh Pirates Christian Yelich J.T. Realmuto Jameson Taillon

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