Byron Buxton

SEPTEMBER 27: Buxton underwent successful surgery this afternoon, tweets Dan Hayes of the Athletic. The recovery timeline is 6-8 weeks, so Buxton should have plenty of time for an offseason ramp-up before Spring Training.

SEPTEMBER 23: Twins star Byron Buxton is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s a cleanup procedure that is not expected to affect his availability for next Spring Training, but it’ll officially close the book on his 2022 season.

Buxton has spent the last month on the injured list mending a right hip strain. He’s battled soreness in his right knee off and on for much of the season. Buxton generally played through the discomfort, although the Twins did intersperse rest days in an effort to keep him off the IL. That sufficed until Buxton suffered the hip injury that knocked him out of action in late August.

The Twins had held out hope Buxton would be able to make a late-season return to aid their efforts at claiming what had been a tightly-contested AL Central. The club instead has mustered a woeful 6-15 record this month, including losing four of five games to the Guardians last weekend. That killed any playoff chances and has knocked them four games under .500. The Guardians, meanwhile, swept the White Sox this week and can clinch the division as soon as this weekend.

With official elimination from postseason contention on the horizon, the Twins have elected to shut Buxton down and turn their attention to next season. It’s obviously not the end to the year the team or Buxton had envisioned, and he was just one of a number of players sidelined down the stretch. Minnesota has also been without Tyler Mahle, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, among others. The injury-decimated roster stumbled, while the Guardians have gone 15-7 this month to seize control of the division and all but officially book a postseason trip.

Buxton concludes his season with 92 games played and 382 plate appearances. It’s the second-highest workload of his MLB career, trailing only a 2017 campaign in which he played 140 games and hit 511 times. Buxton barely played in 2018, and he’s been limited to a hair more than half the team’s games in the past four years.

The recurring injury troubles are all the more frustrating considering Buxton has been one of the sport’s most electrifying players when able to take the field. He’s a top-tier defensive center fielder, and he’s been a well above-average offensive player since the start of the 2018 campaign. That includes this season, when the former second overall pick connected on 28 home runs and posted an overall .224/.306/.526 slash line. Last November, Buxton and the Twins agreed to an incentive-laden contract extension that guaranteed him $100MM and came with massive possible bonuses depending on his plate appearance tallies and MVP finishes over the next six seasons.

11:59AM: Buxton may not even require an IL stint, as Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins aren’t planning another roster move.

11:10AM: Twins outfielder Byron Buxton left yesterday’s game in the first inning due to what the club termed as right knee soreness, and Buxton was set to undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), there wasn’t any structural damage revealed, though Buxton might need around a week to recover.

This counts as good news, as given Buxton’s lengthy injury history, there was plenty of immediate concern when Buxton immediately left the field yesterday after sliding into second base on a leadoff double.  Even if a trip to the 10-day injured list seems probable, Rosenthal’s timeline would indicate that Buxton might only miss the minimum 10 days, though it’s possible the Twins might hold him out an extra day or two as a precaution.

Of course, missing Buxton for even 10 days is a big blow to Minnesota’s lineup, especially since the outfield was already thinned out when Alex Kirilloff was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday due to wrist inflammation.  Max Kepler is suddenly the last starting outfielder left standing, and Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick have already been called up from Triple-A.  That trio projects as the starting outfield for now, with Alex Gordon and Gilberto Celestino also on the active roster.  Jake Cave and Derek Fisher are among the more experienced outfielders still at Triple-A, though the Twins would need to add either player to the 40-man roster.

Buxton has played an even 500 games during parts of eight MLB seasons, as multiple injuries have hampered one of the sport’s most exciting all-around players.  When he has been able to play, Buxton has shown glimpses of his five-tool potential, such as the 4.2 fWAR and .306/.358/.647 slash line he posted over 254 PA (61 games) in 2021.  The seven-year, $100MM extension Buxton signed with the Twins in November reflected both his injury history and this high ceiling of potential, as millions more in incentive bonuses are available to Buxton if he can hit plate-appearance thresholds and secure at least a top-10 finish in MVP voting.

With the offseason in limbo, let’s take a look at a couple of pre- and post-lockout topics…

• ESPN’s MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel polled team executives and agents several weeks ago, asking industry members to predict how much activity would occur before the CBA expired. Those polled were conservative in their predictions, expecting little money to be spent and few free agents to leave the board. With the power of hindsight, we now know that money flew as numerous free agents departed the open market for rich team contracts. Recently, McDaniel again polled a group of agents, asking what to expect when the free agent market unfreezes. For the second time, the agents took a conservative view. The majority of polled agents felt team owners were big spenders in advance of the CBA’s expiration to undermine MLBPA arguments that clubs weren’t spending enough to be competitive. Once a new CBA is reached, these agents expect owners to tighten their purse strings and for free agents to sign for less than their pre-lockout counterparts. History suggests that teams will continue to spend after a new CBA is reached, but it remains to be seen if that trend will continue or if the agents will have their skepticism validated.
• In a more uplifting display of the agent-MLB team relationship, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes dives into the backstory of Byron Buxton’s recent extension with the Twins. Hayes notes that the 7-year, $100MM extension signed by Buxton took more than four years to negotiate, but was completed on the strength of president Thad Levine’s persistence and Buxton’s desire to be a lifelong Twin. Thanks to the unique incentives structure in the agreement, the contract in many respects serves as a perfect compromise between both parties. The 27-year-old Buxton can earn over $10MM in incentives during every year of the contract, depending on playing time and performance, while staying in Minnesota through his age-34 season. The Twins meanwhile, are on the hook for an annual (and palatable) $15MM salary after next year, and won’t have to pay Buxton superstar money any year that injuries prevent him from making a huge impact on the field. The contract defied industry expectations, per Hayes, as several rival teams expected Minnesota’s budget restraints to scuttle a deal. Ultimately, both sides stayed open-minded and got creative to satisfy the initial goal: to keep one of baseball’s most dynamic talents in a Twins uniform.