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East Notes: Andujar, Nelson, Smith, Turner

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The Yankees announced a pair of roster moves after today’s 7-3 loss to the Indians. For starters, they optioned Nick Nelson to their alternate site. The 25-year-old right-hander appeared in six games, once as an opener, giving up 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The demotion comes after a two-inning, three-earned-run outing in today’s ballgame. In addition, the Yankees activated third baseman Miguel Andujar from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site. Andujar was beset by a bout of carpal tunnel syndrome in his right wrist. Slowed largely by injures, the 26-year-old has hit just .193/.219/.257 across 114 plate appearances since his breakout rookie season in 2018. Let’s stay on the East Coast, but move over to the Senior Circuit…

  • The Mets activated right-hander Drew Smith from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 27-year-old has been spotty, but intriguing in small samples for the Mets. Though he made just eight appearances last year, he has logged 35 innings in 35 appearances with a 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP going back through 2018. Injuries have been the bugaboo for Smith, who missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His shoulder has been the issue of late, though hopefully, with some time at the alternate site, Smith can prove his readiness and soon get back to a big league mound.
  • Star shortstop Trea Turner was removed from today’s game after getting plunked in the arm. He has a contusion on his left forearm, but testing came back negative, per Jesse Doughtery of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Turner may miss a game, but it sounds as if the Nats expect him to be okay. That’s critical for the Nationals, as Turner has taken over as their 3-hole hitter with Juan Soto on the shelf. The speedy shortstop looks at home in the middle of the order with a 120 wRC+ and 1.0 bWAR produced through 75 plate appearances prior to today’s game.

Nationals Set Opening Day Roster

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After having their first four games postponed due to positive Covid-19 tests within the organization, the Nationals have announced their roster for today’s season opener. Four Nationals players are said to have tested positive, with several more in the organization being deemed close contacts who are also going through protocol. Tuesday’s announcement was accompanied by a dizzying series of roster moves, which included placing catchers Yan Gomes and Alex Avila; left-handers Patrick Corbin, Brad Hand and Jon Lester; infielders Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer; first baseman Josh Bell; and outfielder Kyle Schwarber on the Covid-19 related injured list. Right-hander Will Harris was also placed on the 10-day injured list after his recent procedure to address a blood clot.

In a sequence of corresponding roster moves, the Nats recalled catcher Tres Barrera; right-handers Ryne Harper and Kyle McGowin; infielders Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia; lefty Sam Clay; and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez from their alternate training site. Washington also selected the contracts of veteran catcher Jonathan Lucroy and outfielder Cody Wilson. Wilson was specifically designated as a “replacement player,” indicating that he can be removed from the 40-man roster and sent back to the minors without clearing waivers as the affected Nationals players are cleared to return to the roster.

Notably, the Nationals’ Opening Day roster includes shortstop Trea Turner — a welcome development after Turner was absent from yesterday’s workout with the team. Manager Dave Martinez tells reporters that Turner was not cleared to be on the field yesterday (Twitter link via the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty), so it seems he cleared protocols this morning. Turner will be joined in the Opening Day infield by Ryan Zimmerman, Hernan Perez (at second) and Starlin Castro (at third). The Nats will give Andrew Stevenson the nod in left field alongside Victor Robles and Juan Soto, while Lucroy draws the start behind the plate, catching Max Scherzer.

The Nationals will make up yesterday’s postponed contest against the Braves in a doubleheader tomorrow. It’s not yet clear when they’ll make up their three postponed games against the Mets, although given that they’re division rivals, the remainder of this season’s schedule will provide ample opportunity for those games to be played.

Nationals Will Make Extension Offers To Juan Soto, Trea Turner In Near Future

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The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann,  Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.

On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.

Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.

Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.

Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.

The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.

The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”

Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.

If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.

As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt.  Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.

One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.

Nationals Notes: Martinez, Turner, Robles

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Dave Martinez already broke new ground in Nationals’ managerial history by winning the World Series in 2019, but in 2021, he will again traverse new territory previously untrod by Nats’ managers: a fourth season on the job. Davey Johnson won Manager of the Year in 2012, Matt Williams won the award in 2014, and Dusty Baker became the first Nats’ manager to win back-to-back NL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but each of Martinez’s predecessors were let go before a fourth campaign (or third in the case of Williams and Baker).

Martinez figures to blow well past the three-year record previously held by Johnson, Jim Riggleman and Manny Acta. Martinez was given a contract extension last year, freeing him to take the long view in the development of his young players, including superstar Juan Soto, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals – reactionary to disappointing playoff losses in the past – seem to have a new view under Martinez, weathering a difficult 2020 without missing a beat. They’ll enter 2021 expecting to contend, and Martinez will look to check another box off his list by winning an NL East title.

Part of his forward-thinking approach is mulling new ways to maximize production from his superstars Soto and Trea Turner. This season, the question is whether or not to move Turner from the leadoff spot, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nationals don’t necessarily have another prime candidate to step into the top spot of the lineup, however. Martinez would like to try Victor Robles at the top of the order against southpaws, writes Zuckerman. Beyond a small sample size of success leading off, Robles has done little to prove himself a natural candidate as a table-setter. He owns a 5.3 percent career walk rate and a 36.7 percent first pitch swing percentage – a good deal more aggressive than the league average of 28.3 percent.

Viewing Turner as a middle-of-the-order bat is sound, however. Though he’s mostly known for being one of the fastest players in the game, Turner’s bat carries serious thunder: Turner boasts a .216 ISO and 130 wRC+ over the past two seasons. He’s performed 18 percent better than average with the bat for his career. Turner has largely been underrated in part because his most impressive performances have come in seasons cut short either because of a late promotion (2016), injury (2019) or the pandemic (2020). It was his return from injury that largely prompted the Nationals magical run in 2019, however, as Turner famously returned in May to hit .296/.352/.487 despite a broken finger. The Nationals are relying heavily on Turner to be the offensive superstar he was in 2020, when he was on pace for a 7+ fWAR season at a 162-game pace.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Trea Turner, Juan Soto

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5:02pm: Washington has also settled with outfielder Juan Soto, who will earn $8.5MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The 22-year-old phenom still has three more seasons of control left after 2021.

4:33pm: The Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner have agreed to a $13MM salary for next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Turner is a client of CAA Sports.

This settlement falls somewhere in the middle of MLBTR’s $9.4MM to $16.6MM arbitration projection for Turner, who has been stellar for the Nationals dating back to 2016. Last year may have been Turner’s best season yet, as the speedster batted .335/.394/.588 with 12 home runs and a dozen stolen bases in 259 plate appearances. The 27-year-old finished fourth among National League position players in fWAR (2.7) and seventh in wRC+ (157).

Turner is likely to stay in Washington for at least another couple of seasons, as he has another year of arb control left after 2021. However, based on the impact Turner has made in their uniform, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nationals attempt to extend him before he’s eligible for free agency.

Mike Rizzo Discusses Trea Turner, Dave Martinez

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Before the coronavirus put the baseball season on pause this spring, the Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner engaged in extension talks, general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed to reporters (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). Of course, the pandemic introduced plenty of economic uncertainty for all 30 clubs. Nevertheless, Rizzo expressed an interest in revisiting those discussions once he gets an opportunity to examine the organization’s financial “landscape” (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).

The 27-year-old Turner has done nothing to dissuade the front office’s interest in keeping him in the fold long-term. He’s somewhat quietly putting up a fabulous season, hitting .368/.421/.632 with nine home runs and five stolen bases in 171 plate appearances. While he obviously won’t sustain a .393 batting average on balls in play, Turner has seemingly turned a corner offensively. He’s striking out at a career-low 14.6% clip and has hit significantly fewer pop-ups this season. For his career, Turner’s a .297/.354/.479 hitter (118 wRC+) with generally average defense at shortstop, positioning him as a 4-5 win player per 600 plate appearances.

Turner and the Nationals agreed on a $7.45MM salary to avoid arbitration this offseason, his second year of eligibility. The former Super Two player is currently slated to go through the process twice more (and figures to earn a nice raise this winter) before reaching free agency after 2022. His first would-be free agent year would be his age-30 season.

More immediately, Rizzo says he plans to turn his attention to the managerial chair. Skipper Dave Martinez is amidst the final guaranteed season of his three-year contract, although the club does possess an option on his services for 2021. Rizzo made clear today he hopes not to have to exercise that option, instead preferring to hammer out a long-term extension with Martinez (via Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). “That’s the plan going forward,” Rizzo said. “See if we can get something done (and) negotiate a longer-term deal with him that goes beyond just picking up the option.” The GM himself just inked an extension yesterday that’ll keep him in D.C. though 2023.

The Nationals have had something of a rocky history with managers, with the Lerner family ownership group notoriously reluctant to commit to skippers on long-term deals. Martinez, though, is the only manager to have led the franchise to a World Series title, so it’d be a shock to see the parties not eventually come to terms on an extension.

A Standout’s Unusual Path To D.C.

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Since he made his major league debut in 2015, Trea Turner has established himself as one of the reigning World Series champion Nationals’ most valuable players. A second baseman and then a center fielder at the beginning of his career, Turner took over as the Nationals’ shortstop in 2017 and now has a stranglehold on the position.

Dating back to his first full season in 2018, Turner has accounted for 8.3 fWAR and hit .283/.348/.451 (110 wRC+) with 38 home runs and 78 stolen bases – the second-highest total in MLB – across 1,309 plate appearances. And the 26-year-old Turner figures to contribute similar or better production in Washington for at least the next couple seasons, as he’s only now about to enter his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns.

With Turner having already given the Nationals quite a bit of surplus value, it’s worth revisiting how he joined the team in the first place. To say the least, it was unusual transaction that led him to D.C. Turner was a 20th-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, but he elected to pass on signing with the Bucs in order to play at North Carolina State. That proved to be a wise decision by Turner, who increased his stock so much as a college player that the Padres took him 13th overall in 2014. Little did Turner or the Padres know then that he’d never play a real game in their uniform, nor was either side aware their relationship would end in such unconventional fashion.

While Turner continued to succeed as a young pro with the Pads, ranking as Baseball America’s 65th-best prospect prior to 2015, the club parted with him that year. Actually, though, San Diego agreed to trade Turner in December 2014 in a three-team blockbuster that also involved the Rays and Nats and. The Padres received outfielder Wil Myers, pitchers Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo, and catcher Ryan Hanigan. The Rays acquired first baseman Jake Bauers, righty Burch Smith, outfielder Steven Souza Jr., catcher Rene Rivera and lefty Travis Ott. The Nationals picked up righty Joe Ross and a player to be named later. Ross showed flashes at the beginning of his Nats tenure, but injuries have helped knock him off course in recent years. On the other hand, the PTBNL, Turner, has been a gem.

Although the Padres and Rays had a handshake agreement in regards to Turner, they weren’t allowed to make it official for a while because of previous MLB rules. The league formerly had a system in place that barred teams from trading anyone who wasn’t a year removed from being drafted. So, because Turner didn’t meet that requirement, he had to spend several more months with the Padres, even though he knew he wasn’t really a member of the team. Turner’s agent, Jeff Berry, suggested he’d fight the setup. In the end, however, Turner didn’t officially change hands until June 2015 – one month after the league instituted new rules to stop something similar from taking place.

To the Padres’ credit, they treated Turner well during his waning months with the club. Turner had to go to Padres spring training and play in the minors as part of the franchise as he waited for the finalization of the trade, and he complimented the team on multiple occasions during that period.

Unfortunately for San Diego, it hasn’t gotten nearly enough out of this trade in hindsight. Turner, after all, has clearly become the top player in this massive swap. Myers had an All-Star season in 2016, which persuaded the Padres to hand him a six-year, $83MM extension, but he has fallen off since then and is now someone they’d like to remove from their books. Reyes had a rough go in his MLB debut last season (7.62 ERA), though he did amass 38 strikeouts in 26 innings. Castillo performed well as a rookie two years ago, but injuries wrecked his 2019. Unlike those three, Hanigan never even played for the Padres, who quickly flipped him to the Red Sox for third baseman Will Middlebrooks. Although Middlebrooks did pile up 270 PA as a Padre in 2015, he was just a .212/.241/.361 hitter then.

It’s fair to say this deal will not go down as a shining moment for Padres general manager A.J. Preller. Conversely, it’s one of the many feathers in the cap of GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals, for whom a one-time player to be named later helped to a championship several months back.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

Quick Hits: Turner, Pomeranz, Robert

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A pair of notable free agents joined new teams this afternoon. With those moves complete, we’ll round up a few more odds and ends from the weekend.

  • Nationals’ shortstop Trea Turner underwent surgery on his problematic index finger last November. Now, he’s primed to enter 2020 at full strength, he tells reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN). “I’ve started hitting. I can hit with 10 fingers, so it’s good,” Turner told reporters. As Zuckerman notes, Turner played almost all of the 2019 season with nine healthy fingers after fracturing the digit on a hit-by-pitch in the first week of April. The injury hardly seemed to hold him back, as Turner slashed .298/.353/.497 (117 wRC+) with 19 home runs and 35 stolen bases as Washington’s primary shortstop and leadoff hitter.
  • Drew Pomeranz had upwards of six offers this offseason, he tells Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Nevertheless, the Padres’ surprising decision to offer a four year deal, coupled with Pomeranz’s enjoyable experience in his prior stint in San Diego, inspired him to rejoin the Friars. As Sanders details, the 31-year-old is a much different pitcher than he was in 2016, when he earned his only All-Star appearance in San Diego. Pomeranz made a full-time move to the bullpen last season in San Francisco, and a velocity uptick and increased willingness to attack the strike zone helped him dominate following a midseason trade to the Brewers.
  • Following their extension last week, the White Sox have now invested over $100MM in Luis Robert before his major league debut, observes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. As Rosenthal explains, the Sox paid over $25MM in overage taxes while guaranteeing Robert $26MM as an amateur under the prior international spending rules. (Spending on international amateurs was hard capped following the 2016-17 signing period, so deals like Robert’s are no longer permissible). Nevertheless, Rosenthal argues, the extension makes perfect sense for the White Sox. Not only does it grant Chicago an extra season of team control, it creates a ceiling for Robert’s earnings in arbitration, he points out. While Robert was wise to secure the guarantee, Rosenthal opines, the agreement serves as the latest reminder that MLB’s economic landscape drastically underpays players at the beginnings of their careers, when they are likely to be their most productive. MLBTR readers certainly anticipate Robert’s becoming an impact player, with 56% of poll voters forecasting him to exceed 2.3 wins above replacement in his first season.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

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