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Trea Turner

Nats Receiving Strong Interest In Trea Turner

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TODAY: Beyond Turner, the Nationals are willing to at least discuss trading anyone besides Juan Soto, according to Dan Federico (Twitter link).

JULY 26: It’s been less than a week since Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke about how his team’s play leading up to the deadline would determine whether the front office would operate as buyers or sellers. The Nats have gone 1-4 since those comments, including a loss to the last-place Marlins and a three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles in Baltimore.

There’s no indication yet that the Nationals are on the brink of a broad-reaching sell-off, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals are receiving “a lot” of interest in All-Star shortstop Trea Turner and have not firmly ruled out moving him (Twitter thread). It goes without saying that the Nats would need an overwhelming return in order to part with Turner, who is still owed about $4.82MM of this year’s $13MM salary and is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.

Broadly speaking, one would think that the 28-year-old Turner is an extension candidate more than a trade candidate, given the Nationals’ perennially high payroll, recent World Series victory and general “win-now” mindset. However, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweeted today that Nationals ownership doesn’t have plans to green-light a long-term extension with Turner.

Absence of an extension doesn’t necessarily mean that a trade of Turner is a foregone conclusion, of course. The Nationals will in all likelihood be aiming to contend in 2022, regardless of how their 2021 campaign plays out, and Turner would be a central figure in those efforts. But it’s also certainly possible that for a player of Turner’s caliber, the Nats could extract multiple near-MLB pieces and/or controllable young big leaguers who could both deepen the roster for the 2022 season and set them up nicely in the long run.

Turner, the No. 13 overall pick back in 2014, has established himself as one of MLB’s best all-around talents dating back to a breakout 2016 campaign. He’s a .301/.356/.489 hitter 92 home runs and 190 stolen bases in that time and, in deserving fashion, finally nabbed his first All-Star nod in 2021. Turner is batting .319/.367/.521 this season and entered play leading the National League with 199 total bases on the season. No one has swiped more bases than Turner since the start of the 2016 season, and FanGraphs ranks him 20th among all position players in wins above replacement in that span.

If Turner indeed were to hit the market, it’d be a major shakeup to a fairly limited crop of available infielders. Fellow shortstops Trevor Story and Javier Baez are the most notable player available, though neither is having a great year at the plate. Other (non-shortstop) possibilities include Jonathan Schoop, Eduardo Escobar, Whit Merrifield and Asdrubal Cabrera. Story has reportedly received some interest as a possible outside-the-box option in center field, and Turner could hold similar appeal — particularly since he’s actually played 387 innings of center field in the big leagues. (Story has played only shortstop in the Majors.)

The market for infield help is still developing — as is the trade market in general, despite the deadline’s proximity — but the Mariners, Brewers, Mets, Reds, White Sox, A’s have all been linked to infield upgrades (not necessarily at shortstop). The Padres, who originally drafted Turner, seem to be in on virtually every big name that hits the market, regardless of whether their roster presents a clear fit.

The Turner rumblings come at the same time as reports that Max Scherzer is at least open to waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade rights. While that doesn’t definitively signal the organization has made up its mind to sell this week, but it’s only natural to think that after slipping in recent weeks — or at least failing to gain much ground — hopeful buyers are beginning to circle and gauge the asking prices should the Nats eventually wave the white flag on 2021. Rizzo himself last week said that if the Nats do become sellers, “everything will be on the table, I would think.”

Latest From The Nationals

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The Nationals’ will to compete is being tested this trade deadline. After back-to-back losses to the Orioles, the Nats don’t look at all like a contender. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and two cornerstone players in Trea Turner and Juan Soto whom they’ll want to sign long-term in the coming season. Restocking the farm system could go a long way to providing Turner and Soto with the future competitive security they may need to ink long-term deals, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

The most significant deadline question, of course, revolves around Max Scherzer. Mad Max missed his start yesterday with triceps discomfort, but it’s a minor injury and nothing that should derail a potential trade, if there were to be one. A decision has not yet been made about making his next start, per Dougherty.

Joe Ross will come off the injured list without a rehab assignment to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Ross hasn’t been talked about much in terms of the trade market, but he’s put up a solid season — 4.02 ERA/4.51 FIP in 87 1/3 innings — as he finally looks to be rounding back into form as the guy who debuted with the Nats back in 2015. He’s making just $1.5MM, and he has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Scherzer is obviously the big fish in Washington, but for teams looking for cheap, controllable help in the rotation, Ross has mid-rotation upside.

Whether Ross would be available or not is unclear. If indeed the Nats decide to sell, Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand would presumably be the two names of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Hudson has been excellent once again this year and could solidify a contender’s pen as he did for the Nats in 2019. The Blue Jays are among the teams to ask about the Nats’ pair of back-end arms, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

Tanner Rainey is beginning a rehab assignment today, tweets Dougherty. Rainey’s had a tough season to date — 6.93 ERA in 24 2/3 innings — and he’s less likely to be dealt than the names above. That said, if Hudson and/or Hand are moved, Rainey would be a prime contender to take on some high leverage duties.

If Scherzer and/or Ross do get moved, the Nats would have to dig deep to find enough starters to fill out their rotation. Stephen Strasburg does not seem any closer to making his return from a neck strain and other various ailments. He will see another specialist this week, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.

Recurring Depth Shortage Makes Nationals A Team To Watch

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The Nationals were the beneficiaries of an otherworldly run of power from Kyle Schwarber in June. Schwarber’s hot streak has been well-documented, but to put it in brief, Schwarber hit 16 home runs after June 12th to finish with the second most home runs in June all-time. Better yet, in that 19-game stretch, the Nationals went 15-4, putting the team back over .500 and firmly in the conversation for the NL East crown. They are 2.5 games behind the Mets entering play on Saturday.

But it’s July now, and the Nationals have a stark new reality to confront. Schwarber left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury and was placed on the 10-day injured list today. Manager Dave Martinez called the injury “significant” and said that he’ll be out for more than a 10-day injured list stint, per Todd Dybas of Inside the Clubhouse (Twitter links). That’s not a death knell for the Nats, but it is a crushing blow for a team that’s long been one of the most top-heavy teams in the league.

The Nationals not only lack the depth to cover for significant injuries, but there’s very little by way of system depth to shore up those weaknesses via trade. Case and point, Trea Turner is day-to-day after jamming his finger on a triple, which forced the team to use catcher Alex Avila as their starting second baseman the next day. But this isn’t just a clerical misunderstanding or bit of ill-timing that left the Nats temporarily short-handed in the infield. Their dearth of ML-capable infielders is such that they immediately turned around and traded for Alcides Escobar from the Royals.

That the Nationals have any kind of question for which Escobar is the answer should be a tell-tale giveaway of their current circumstances. Escobar hasn’t played in the Majors since 2018. He hasn’t reached base at a better than .300 OBP clip since 2014. He has never slugged over .400 SLG for a season.

For the optimists out there, he does have a capable glove, the Royals won a World Series with Escobar at shortstop, and he posted a league-average bat over the past two seasons in Triple-A. For six seasons from 2011 to 2016, Escobar averaged 1.82 rWAR/1.83 fWAR per season. That’s not star quality, but it’s a capable Major Leaguer.

To return to the cup-half-empty crowd, those years were firmly in Escobar’s physical prime, and at 34 years old, he’s well beyond that. He averaged -1.45 rWAR/-0.2 fWAR in his final two seasons in the Majors, which to reiterate, was three seasons ago.

Granted, it’s not clear right now what the Nationals’ plan is for Escobar. He is on the active roster, but it’s anyone’s guess how long he stays. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Escobar find a home in DC, as other unlikely roster castoffs have in the past — guys like Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, and Gerardo Parra.

In the short term, Humberto Arteaga had his contract selected, and he started at short yesterday. Arteaga is another Royals’ castoff. Arteaga was the Royals’ 20th-ranked prospect by Baseball America in 2013, and he’s never at any level posted a better than 93 wRC+. Just as quickly, he’s been designated for assignment. If he goes unclaimed, however, the Nats may need Arteaga again.

The caveat to the Nats’ shortstop problem is that it doesn’t seem like Turner will be out for long. For a couple of days, Arteaga or even Escobar are fine stopgaps. But if Turner’s injury extends to a stint on the injured list, the Nats might consider turning to one of two top prospects: Luis Garcia or Carter Kieboom. The sheen has worn off these two, but they still hold tremendous promise, and they’re both raking in Triple-A. The problem is that neither profiles as a shortstop. Garcia has started 25 games at short in Rochester, but he’s been dealing with injury concerns of his own.

Garcia — who is still just 21 — is the Nats’ sole in-house option that has some chance to hold the line in the case of a Turner injury. That said, there’s no replacing Turner, who has been among the most productive regulars in the game with 3.6 fWAR, tied for sixth-most among qualified position players in the Majors.

Returning to left field, the Nats are going to have a similar problem filling in for Schwarber. Gerardo Parra was the immediate replacement, and beyond him, only Josh Harrison has experience in the outfield. While playing with a four-man bench and a hobbled Turner, Harrison is essentially the emergency backup at every position.

He’s also a decent counterpoint to skepticism of the Nats’ strategy to trust trusted hands. Harrison was all but out of the league after back-to-back putrid seasons with losing teams in the Pirates and Tigers, the latter of whom released him after he hit .175/.218/.263 in 36 games. He’s been rejuvenated in Washington, however, hitting .275/.352/.386 in 358 plate appearances across 2020-21. The 5’8″ sparkplug has been worth 1.3 rWAR this year.

Parra doesn’t have the hard evidence to back up his on-field value since latching on with the Nats mid-way through 2019, but his contributions as a clubhouse presence cannot be discounte — not when “Baby Shark” continues to rev the engines of Nats Park whenever Parra steps to the plate. With the ability to play all three outfield spots, Parra certainly adds enough value to hold a roster spot, but he’s overextended as an everyday player.

Which leads us to Yadiel Hernandez, the likeliest option to get the call as the regular left fielder until Schwarber returns, especially with Andrew Stevenson also out (Stevenson is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, notes Dougherty). Hernandez has some power and regularly puts together quality at-bats. In his youth, he could play all three outfield spots, but now he’s best used in a corner. He has mashed to the tune of .309/.367/.618 in 14 games since being optioned to Triple-A, where the Nats sent him to get more regular playing time.

The 33-year-old rookie may seem an uninspired option at first glance, but there’s cause for his believers to feel righteous: he hit a particularly righteous .333/.390/.417 in 41 plate appearances earlier this season when getting regular playing time as Juan Soto’s injury replacement. His overall line slipped to .261/.316/.362 in 76 trips, but with Schwarber and Soto healthy, Hernandez’s opportunities were limited to pinch-hitting. That’s a tough gig and not everyone can be Lenny Harris or Matt Stairs (though Stairs is actually a decent comp for body type and swing style).

As with Turner, nobody is capable of stepping into the role left behind by Schwarber, at least as he was in June. Even Schwarber was unlikely to continue to be that guy. The macro problem for the Nationals isn’t replacing Turner and Schwarber over the next few days or even weeks, it’s that the pool of talent behind the active roster is thin enough that it’s not hard to imagine a total collapse — which is why teams continue to eye the Nats closely as the trade deadline approaches.

On the one hand, Stephen Strasburg could return, Patrick Corbin could find his form, Turner’s finger issue could pass quickly, Soto could hit a much-anticipated power surge, and Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, and Kyle Finnegan could make hasty returns from the injured list to reinforce the bullpen. In a relatively flaccid NL East, the Nationals certainly can make a run.

On the other hand, Strasburg’s mysterious poor health could remain mysterious and poor, Corbin could struggle to find his mechanical consistency all season, and with just an injury or two, the offense could crater. That was the story for the Nationals in 2020, which resulted in a last-place club. That was also the case in 2019 when — stop me if you’ve heard this before — an injury to Turner’s finger nearly tanked their season.

The watch is on to see how the Nats respond to Schwarber’s injury. At the very least, we now know Schwarber isn’t coming back any time soon — which quite literally puts an end to the run that got them back into contention.

East Notes: Turner, Familia, Nimmo, Sale, Moreno

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It was a banner day for Trea Turner, as the Nationals shortstop celebrated his 28th birthday and tied a Major League record with his third career cycle.  Turner joins Adrian Beltre, Babe Herman, Bob Meusel, and Long John Reilly as the only players since 1890 with three cycles on their resume, putting Turner in good position to claim sole possession of the record before his career is over.

Unfortunately, the achievement wasn’t without some pain for Turner, as he jammed his left middle finger while sliding into third base for the triple that completed the cycle.  Turner told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that his finger was “pretty sore,” and manager Davey Martinez said Turner is day-to-day for the time being.  Turner’s big day (which also included two stolen bases) only continues what has been a big season for the shortstop, who is now hitting .318/.367/.513 with 14 homers, 18 stolen bases, and an even 50 runs and 100 hits over 341 plate appearances.

Some more injury news from around the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Jeurys Familia is expected to be activated off the 10-day injured list this weekend, Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post).  A right hip impingement sidelined Familia on June 21, so he’ll miss only slightly more than the 10-day minimum.  Despite an ungainly 14.3% walk rate, Familia has a solid 3.63 ERA/4.31 SIERA over 22 1/3 IP, with a 58.5% grounder rate and a lot of soft contact helping offset his lack of control.
  • Brandon Nimmo could also potentially be back on the Mets roster this weekend.  Nimmo hasn’t played since May 2 due to what was initially called a left index finger contusion, then re-diagnosed as a potential nerve problem, and then as a small ligament tear.  This confusion led to a couple of stops and starts in Nimmo’s rehab, and an initial thought that he would be activated off the IL yesterday was held off since the team wanted him to get a bit more prep work in the minors.  Given all the setbacks, it probably shouldn’t be considered a sure deal for Nimmo until he is actually back at Citi Field, but things look promising for the outfielder.
  • Chris Sale threw live batting practice today at Fenway Park, tossing two simulated innings and reaching the 94-95mph threshold with his fastball, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and other reporters.  Sale is slated for another live BP session at the team’s Spring Training facility this weekend, and a rehab assignment could be the next step for the left-hander.  Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and has been projected to return by late July or early August, so he certainly seems to be on track with that timetable.  The Red Sox are leading the AL East despite some struggles within the rotation, and those issues could be greatly mitigated by a Sale who is healthy and anywhere close to his past superstar form.
  • The Blue Jays’ injury woes have extended to the minors, as GM Ross Atkins said that star catching prospect Gabriel Moreno suffered a “minor fracture” of his thumb after being hit by a pitch.  Atkins told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Moreno will “most likely” miss several weeks, and surgery hasn’t been ruled out.  Moreno has a whopping .373/.441/.651 slash line and eight homers in 145 PA at Double-A New Hampshire this season, and Baseball America ranks the catcher 32nd on their top-100 prospect list.  While this injury certainly hampers Moreno’s trade value, his development had seemingly made him more of a cornerstone piece for the Jays than a potential trade chip as Toronto approaches the deadline.  Any of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Reese McGuire, or Riley Adams could be more likely than Moreno to be dealt as the Jays look for upgrades on the trade market.

East Notes: Andujar, Nelson, Smith, Turner

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The Yankees announced a pair of roster moves after today’s 7-3 loss to the Indians. For starters, they optioned Nick Nelson to their alternate site. The 25-year-old right-hander appeared in six games, once as an opener, giving up 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The demotion comes after a two-inning, three-earned-run outing in today’s ballgame. In addition, the Yankees activated third baseman Miguel Andujar from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site. Andujar was beset by a bout of carpal tunnel syndrome in his right wrist. Slowed largely by injures, the 26-year-old has hit just .193/.219/.257 across 114 plate appearances since his breakout rookie season in 2018. Let’s stay on the East Coast, but move over to the Senior Circuit…

  • The Mets activated right-hander Drew Smith from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 27-year-old has been spotty, but intriguing in small samples for the Mets. Though he made just eight appearances last year, he has logged 35 innings in 35 appearances with a 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP going back through 2018. Injuries have been the bugaboo for Smith, who missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His shoulder has been the issue of late, though hopefully, with some time at the alternate site, Smith can prove his readiness and soon get back to a big league mound.
  • Star shortstop Trea Turner was removed from today’s game after getting plunked in the arm. He has a contusion on his left forearm, but testing came back negative, per Jesse Doughtery of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Turner may miss a game, but it sounds as if the Nats expect him to be okay. That’s critical for the Nationals, as Turner has taken over as their 3-hole hitter with Juan Soto on the shelf. The speedy shortstop looks at home in the middle of the order with a 120 wRC+ and 1.0 bWAR produced through 75 plate appearances prior to today’s game.

Nationals Set Opening Day Roster

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After having their first four games postponed due to positive Covid-19 tests within the organization, the Nationals have announced their roster for today’s season opener. Four Nationals players are said to have tested positive, with several more in the organization being deemed close contacts who are also going through protocol. Tuesday’s announcement was accompanied by a dizzying series of roster moves, which included placing catchers Yan Gomes and Alex Avila; left-handers Patrick Corbin, Brad Hand and Jon Lester; infielders Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer; first baseman Josh Bell; and outfielder Kyle Schwarber on the Covid-19 related injured list. Right-hander Will Harris was also placed on the 10-day injured list after his recent procedure to address a blood clot.

In a sequence of corresponding roster moves, the Nats recalled catcher Tres Barrera; right-handers Ryne Harper and Kyle McGowin; infielders Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia; lefty Sam Clay; and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez from their alternate training site. Washington also selected the contracts of veteran catcher Jonathan Lucroy and outfielder Cody Wilson. Wilson was specifically designated as a “replacement player,” indicating that he can be removed from the 40-man roster and sent back to the minors without clearing waivers as the affected Nationals players are cleared to return to the roster.

Notably, the Nationals’ Opening Day roster includes shortstop Trea Turner — a welcome development after Turner was absent from yesterday’s workout with the team. Manager Dave Martinez tells reporters that Turner was not cleared to be on the field yesterday (Twitter link via the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty), so it seems he cleared protocols this morning. Turner will be joined in the Opening Day infield by Ryan Zimmerman, Hernan Perez (at second) and Starlin Castro (at third). The Nats will give Andrew Stevenson the nod in left field alongside Victor Robles and Juan Soto, while Lucroy draws the start behind the plate, catching Max Scherzer.

The Nationals will make up yesterday’s postponed contest against the Braves in a doubleheader tomorrow. It’s not yet clear when they’ll make up their three postponed games against the Mets, although given that they’re division rivals, the remainder of this season’s schedule will provide ample opportunity for those games to be played.

Nationals Will Make Extension Offers To Juan Soto, Trea Turner In Near Future

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The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann,  Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.

On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.

Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.

Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.

Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.

The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.

The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”

Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.

If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.

As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt.  Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.

One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.

Nationals Notes: Martinez, Turner, Robles

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Dave Martinez already broke new ground in Nationals’ managerial history by winning the World Series in 2019, but in 2021, he will again traverse new territory previously untrod by Nats’ managers: a fourth season on the job. Davey Johnson won Manager of the Year in 2012, Matt Williams won the award in 2014, and Dusty Baker became the first Nats’ manager to win back-to-back NL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but each of Martinez’s predecessors were let go before a fourth campaign (or third in the case of Williams and Baker).

Martinez figures to blow well past the three-year record previously held by Johnson, Jim Riggleman and Manny Acta. Martinez was given a contract extension last year, freeing him to take the long view in the development of his young players, including superstar Juan Soto, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals – reactionary to disappointing playoff losses in the past – seem to have a new view under Martinez, weathering a difficult 2020 without missing a beat. They’ll enter 2021 expecting to contend, and Martinez will look to check another box off his list by winning an NL East title.

Part of his forward-thinking approach is mulling new ways to maximize production from his superstars Soto and Trea Turner. This season, the question is whether or not to move Turner from the leadoff spot, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nationals don’t necessarily have another prime candidate to step into the top spot of the lineup, however. Martinez would like to try Victor Robles at the top of the order against southpaws, writes Zuckerman. Beyond a small sample size of success leading off, Robles has done little to prove himself a natural candidate as a table-setter. He owns a 5.3 percent career walk rate and a 36.7 percent first pitch swing percentage – a good deal more aggressive than the league average of 28.3 percent.

Viewing Turner as a middle-of-the-order bat is sound, however. Though he’s mostly known for being one of the fastest players in the game, Turner’s bat carries serious thunder: Turner boasts a .216 ISO and 130 wRC+ over the past two seasons. He’s performed 18 percent better than average with the bat for his career. Turner has largely been underrated in part because his most impressive performances have come in seasons cut short either because of a late promotion (2016), injury (2019) or the pandemic (2020). It was his return from injury that largely prompted the Nationals magical run in 2019, however, as Turner famously returned in May to hit .296/.352/.487 despite a broken finger. The Nationals are relying heavily on Turner to be the offensive superstar he was in 2020, when he was on pace for a 7+ fWAR season at a 162-game pace.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Trea Turner, Juan Soto

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5:02pm: Washington has also settled with outfielder Juan Soto, who will earn $8.5MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The 22-year-old phenom still has three more seasons of control left after 2021.

4:33pm: The Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner have agreed to a $13MM salary for next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Turner is a client of CAA Sports.

This settlement falls somewhere in the middle of MLBTR’s $9.4MM to $16.6MM arbitration projection for Turner, who has been stellar for the Nationals dating back to 2016. Last year may have been Turner’s best season yet, as the speedster batted .335/.394/.588 with 12 home runs and a dozen stolen bases in 259 plate appearances. The 27-year-old finished fourth among National League position players in fWAR (2.7) and seventh in wRC+ (157).

Turner is likely to stay in Washington for at least another couple of seasons, as he has another year of arb control left after 2021. However, based on the impact Turner has made in their uniform, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nationals attempt to extend him before he’s eligible for free agency.

Mike Rizzo Discusses Trea Turner, Dave Martinez

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Before the coronavirus put the baseball season on pause this spring, the Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner engaged in extension talks, general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed to reporters (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). Of course, the pandemic introduced plenty of economic uncertainty for all 30 clubs. Nevertheless, Rizzo expressed an interest in revisiting those discussions once he gets an opportunity to examine the organization’s financial “landscape” (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).

The 27-year-old Turner has done nothing to dissuade the front office’s interest in keeping him in the fold long-term. He’s somewhat quietly putting up a fabulous season, hitting .368/.421/.632 with nine home runs and five stolen bases in 171 plate appearances. While he obviously won’t sustain a .393 batting average on balls in play, Turner has seemingly turned a corner offensively. He’s striking out at a career-low 14.6% clip and has hit significantly fewer pop-ups this season. For his career, Turner’s a .297/.354/.479 hitter (118 wRC+) with generally average defense at shortstop, positioning him as a 4-5 win player per 600 plate appearances.

Turner and the Nationals agreed on a $7.45MM salary to avoid arbitration this offseason, his second year of eligibility. The former Super Two player is currently slated to go through the process twice more (and figures to earn a nice raise this winter) before reaching free agency after 2022. His first would-be free agent year would be his age-30 season.

More immediately, Rizzo says he plans to turn his attention to the managerial chair. Skipper Dave Martinez is amidst the final guaranteed season of his three-year contract, although the club does possess an option on his services for 2021. Rizzo made clear today he hopes not to have to exercise that option, instead preferring to hammer out a long-term extension with Martinez (via Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). “That’s the plan going forward,” Rizzo said. “See if we can get something done (and) negotiate a longer-term deal with him that goes beyond just picking up the option.” The GM himself just inked an extension yesterday that’ll keep him in D.C. though 2023.

The Nationals have had something of a rocky history with managers, with the Lerner family ownership group notoriously reluctant to commit to skippers on long-term deals. Martinez, though, is the only manager to have led the franchise to a World Series title, so it’d be a shock to see the parties not eventually come to terms on an extension.

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