MLBTR Polls Rumors

In what’s becoming a bit of a tradition on these slow Saturday nights, let’s take a break from the inaction to consider which All-Stars might find themselves in a new home between now and the end of August. I see no reason to restrict our attention to only the non-waiver trade deadline. We’ve already seen one All-Star – former Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija – traded.

For this exercise, I’ve included most players from the basement teams. I’ve left out a few like Yu Darvish, Starlin Castro, and Anthony Rizzo since they seem to be part of their club’s long term plans. We’re left with a nine player list. Please select all candidates you believe will be dealt or pick the “none” option if you think everyone will stay put.

David Price – TAM: The Rays top starter has been the elephant in the room since the previous trade deadline. Now may be the best time for the Rays to deal Price – his value will diminish as he approaches free agency. The 28-year-old is club controlled through 2015.  Given the price paid by the Athletics for Samardzija, the Rays will want a top prospect like Addison Russell included in any deal.

Tampa Bay is still trying to claw their way back into the AL East (10.5 games out of first) and Wild Card race. They also figure to contend next season, so they could opt to hang onto their star. For his part, Price is trying to firewall his teammates from the rumors.

Kurt Suzuki – MIN: With few catchers on the trade block, Suzuki should receive plenty of attention. The 30-year-old backstop has never drawn rave reviews on his defense. He’s a bit undersized for a catcher, and it’s been hypothesized that his short stature affects his ability to frame pitches. Per StatCorner’s Catcher Report Suzuki has ranked last defensively (many catchers have been worse on a per innings basis).

It’s Suzuki’s bat that has brought him to the Midsummer Classic. Suzuki performed decently at the plate over his first three major league seasons before sliding into obscurity over four seasons. He signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Twins for the 2014. The Cardinals and Orioles are liable to be most interested since both teams have lost their star backstop but don’t need a replacement beyond the 2014 season.

Adrian Beltre – TEX: Rangers manager Ron Washington told Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports that Beltre was absolutely not available. Considering the star third baseman is 35 years old, the Rangers may want to rethink that position. It comes down to a basic question, will Texas rebuild or retool for a 2015 run? If competing in 2015 is seen as a long shot, then the club should maximize their return on Beltre. He’s signed through 2015 with a voidable option for 2016 based on plate appearances.

Alexei Ramirez – CWS: Ramirez has provided adequate offense and defense at the hardest position on the diamond since coming over to the White Sox from Cuba. The 32-year-old is signed through 2015 with a $10MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2016. Several contenders could use middle infield help, including the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Athletics, Mariners, Reds, and Giants.

Koji Uehara – BOS: The latest rumor has the Red Sox hoping to retain Uehara through 2015. He’s only signed through the end of this season, so that would require a one year extension – potentially via a qualifying offer. If the club instead decides to cash in on the Japanese veteran, they’ll need to wade into a well-supplied reliever market. It could be hard to get enough of a return to make a trade worthwhile. However, Uehara would be the top closer available, which could push a team like the Tigers to focus their attention.

Chase Utley – PHI: The fringe hall of famer has temporarily put concerns about his knee to rest. His power is definitely in decline, but he remains a useful hitter with a 122 wRC+. Ever since 2005, he’s quietly been one of the best defensive second baseman per Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). The 35-year-old  has full no-trade protection, and he’s hinted he would use it to remain with the Phillies. As such, our speculation could be moot.

Troy Tulowitzki – COL: Tulo could find himself a frequent guest of the MLBTR pages over the next couple weeks. The 29-year-old MVP candidate is signed through 2020. He’s guaranteed roughly $124MM including a $4MM buyout on the 2021 season ($15MM club option). According to Jon Heyman, he gave his “subtle blessing” for a trade. In public comments, he’s also played up his desire to play on a winning team without coming right out to say he would welcome a trade. For his part, Rockies owner Dick Monfort would like to keep Tulowitzki.

Miguel Montero – ARI: The Diamondbacks are expected to deal a lot of pieces over the trade season, but Montero probably won’t be one of them. Montero, who turned 31 three days ago, has bounced back from a disappointing 2013 season. He’s signed through 2017 for roughly $44MM.

Montero has turned in a solid offensive season as the club’s regular cleanup hitter, although he remains impotent against left-handed pitching. The same defensive metrics that rank Suzuki worst in baseball consider Montero to be the best, which could make him a potential long term solution for a team like the Blue Jays.

Daniel Murphy – NYM: The Mets have reportedly held no fresh negotiations involving Murphy. The 29-year-old second baseman is club controlled through 2015. While he hits for a high batting average, he doesn’t reach base enough to be an ideal top of the order batter, nor does he feature the power of a prototypical RBI man. His offensive profile, coupled with tepid reviews of his defense could account for the lack of related trade rumors. He’s posted 2.7 fWAR this season, so he’s valuable even if it comes in an atypical package.

With the calendar approaching July, trade deadline rumors will soon begin to convert into actual deals. Last season, the first bullet – at least the first to include a starting pitcher – was fired on July 2nd, when the Cubs dealt Scott Feldman to the Orioles. With two notable assets, the Cubs are once again in position to strike first blood. However, they aren’t the only club with a pitcher on the market.

Plenty of teams would like to a starter. Earlier today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman mentioned a desire to acquire a pitcher in the next few weeks, according to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. Virtually every contender could benefit from an additional starter. While needs vary by team, the market has the full gamut of options available.

David Price, Rays, 3.63 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 10.45 K/9, 1.02 BB/9: By ERA, Price is having one of the worst seasons of his career. Based on his peripherals, he’s having a career year. Most teams employ a fully realized analytics department, so don’t be surprised if they are comfortable buying Price’s elite command and control profile. The 28-year-old is club controlled through 2015, so he’ll be especially appealing to teams that see themselves as contenders next season. Alternatively, he could make an interesting asset to re-trade, like Cliff Lee circa 2009.

Jon Lester, Red Sox, 3.14 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 2.29 BB/9: Lester, 30, is in the midst of his finest season. He’s a free agent at the end of the 2014, and as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hypothesized, he’ll probably refuse to open negotiations until after the season. The Sox may decide it’s time to cash in on Lester and open a spot in the rotation for Rubby De La Rosa. Lester should be most appealing to teams that want to go all in this season.

Cliff Lee, Phillies, 3.18 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 8.07 K/9, 1.19 BB/9: The dark horse in this particular competition, Lee is currently on the disabled list with an elbow injury. He’s on pace to return sometime around the All Star break. Any club would be happy to acquire the ace – his contract is another matter. He’s owed the balance of $25MM this season, another $25MM next season, and he has a $27.5MM club option for 2016 that vests with 200 innings thrown in 2015. Given his recent injury and cost, the Phillies can’t hope to receive much in return. Unless they’re facing a budget crunch, they might be better off trading him at a later date. He may be available in August.

Bartolo Colon, Mets, 3.67 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 6.88 ERA, 1.25 FIP: Those who wander the dark corners of the internet may have seen rumors of Colon’s availability. The premise is simple: the Mets are in a position to sell and Colon is a 41-year-old veteran who isn’t helping the team win today. The reason he probably won’t be dealt is because he’s viewed as a helpful mentor to the club’s young staff. The Mets entertain hopes of contending in 2015, and Colon’s veteran presence could be the difference. He’s a weird target for a club hoping to reach the playoffs in 2014. He doesn’t feature the kind of skill set teams like to see in their playoff starters, i.e. dominating stuff. His best talent is not walking anybody.

Jeff Samardzija, Cubs, 2.53 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 8.48 K/9, 2.71 BB/9: Samardzija, 29, is the poor man’s Price, if by “poor man” you mean the guy with the premium Mercedes rather than the elite Aston Martin. Like Price, he’s club controlled through 2015, which makes him a perfect target for teams with a multi-season playoff window. And like several other pitchers on this list, he’s having a career season.

Jason Hammel, Cubs, 2.98 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 8.50 K/9, 1.84 BB/9: Last season, the Cubs signed Feldman and later parlayed him into a useful reliever (Pedro Strop). Hammel has been even better than Feldman was last season, but a shaky track record and expiring contract will probably keep his price down. Feldman wasn’t the most interesting starter on the trade market last season, yet he was still the first to go. Will Hammel follow suit? Theo Epstein’s Cubs have a precedent of acting early.

Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks, 5.11 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 7.53 K/9, 1.56 BB/9: McCarthy, 30, certainly has the worst ERA of the bunch, yet his peripherals are highly desirable. He’s allowed twice as many home runs as expected, which is why his xFIP (FIP adjusted for a normal home run rate) is 2.92. You can count on several clubs being aware of the excellent peripherals. Somebody will take a shot. The Diamondbacks are dead in the NL West and reportedly need to shed payroll. McCarthy earns $9MM this season.

Ian Kennedy,  Padres, 4.01 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 9.67 K/9, 2.35 BB/9: Speaking of NL West clubs trying to shed payroll, the Padres are reportedly looking to cut costs. Kennedy is one of several veteran Friars on the block. He’s entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, which makes him the true poor man’s Price/Samardzija. The 29-year-old Scott Boras client is probably best suited for clubs with a large home park due to a slight tendency towards fly balls.

Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies, 4.78 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 6.70 K/9, 3.93 BB/9: The 33-year-old pitcher is unlike the others on the list. With the alternatives, there’s at least some kind of possibility for near-elite performance. De La Rosa’s best quality is an ability to eat innings. He’s a free agent at the end of the season and he’s earning $11MM. Teams should find him the cheapest pitcher of those featured…with reason.

Sunday morning, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo quoted a GM suggesting that Jon Lester might be emerging as the best starting pitcher in the 2015 free agent class. “Lester is the most appealing,” the GM said. “He’s lefthanded, a bulldog, big-game experience, and just 30. Will he get six or seven years? I’d say he will.”

Lester may well get six or seven years, but the assertion that he’s the most appealing starting pitcher available next winter is interesting, given the other top potential free agents, who include Justin Masterson, Ervin Santana, Max Scherzer and James Shields. There are other interesting free-agent options, like Jake Peavy and Francisco Liriano, but we’ll limit ourselves to these five. We’ll also ignore players like Johnny Cueto whose teams possess options for their services for 2015.

Obviously, there’s no guarantee that all these pitchers will actually become free agents. Lester and Masterson, for example, could still sign extensions with their current teams. But let’s rank those top five pitchers with the assumption that they’ll all hit the market.

Lester has increased his strikeouts and decreased his walks so far this season. He currently leads MLB in pitcher fWAR and has a long track record of success in both the regular season and postseason. He reportedly declined a four-year, $70MM extension offer from the Red Sox in April.

Masterson has seen his fastball dip in velocity this season, which may be one reason the Indians reportedly balked at a three-year extension proposal in the $53MM range, but he’s continued to get results this season. He’s also the youngest pitcher of the five, having just turned 29 in March.

Santana had to settle for a one-year deal last offseason, but he has since been a key part of the Braves’ excellent season, posting a 1.99 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 so far.

Scherzer has continued his the dominance that led him to the 2013 AL Cy Young award, striking out a career-high 11.2 batters per nine innings while posting a 2.04 ERA. In March, he rejected a six-year, $144MM extension offer from the Tigers.

Shields has been one of the AL’s most consistent and durable starters in the past several seasons — he has pitched over 200 innings every season since 2007. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season in 2015, however, which could limit his earnings potential somewhat.

If you were a GM looking for a top-notch starter, how would you rank these five pitchers? Rank them in terms of their desirability as free agents, regardless of how much they are likely to cost.

Check out the results here.

B.J. Upton, the No. 2 overall pick by the Devil Rays in the 2002 draft, collected his 1,000th MLB hit on Saturday on a ground ball against Mike Leake and the Reds. But while Upton has had a long and lucrative MLB career, he hasn’t reached the heights of other players drafted later that year.

The Devil Rays did fare better than other teams drafting in the top five in ’02. The Pirates took Ball State righty Bryan Bullington with the first overall pick, and Bullington turned out to be a journeyman. Third, fourth and fifth overall picks Chris Gruler (Reds), Adam Loewen (Orioles) and Clint Everts (Expos) didn’t turn out much better.

Where that draft really got interesting was with the sixth pick, where the Royals took Zack Greinke. One pick later, the Brewers grabbed Prince Fielder. Later in the first round went Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels and Matt Cain. Joey Votto, Jon Lester and Brian McCann went in the second round; Curtis Granderson headed to the Tigers in the third, and Josh Johnson went to the Marlins in the fourth. Howie Kendrick and Russell Martin went in the late rounds.

We’re nearly 12 years removed from that draft now, and most of the top players involved are now in their late primes. Some have moved on to other teams. So which team fared the best? Here are some possibilities, but feel free to peruse Baseball Reference’s draft database on your own.

Angels. The Angels got solid value from Joe Saunders at No. 12 overall, then scored with Kendrick in the tenth round.

Athletics. The A’s got several good players in their famed “Moneyball” draft, although this was partially, or perhaps even primarily, a function of opportunity — they had seven of the first 39 picks. Swisher (24.1 bWAR) and Joe Blanton (8.8 bWAR) turned out well, but other members of Oakland’s unconventional draft class (including John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, and Jeremy Brown, all selected in the first round) didn’t. The A’s signed Jared Burton in the late rounds, although they lost him in the Rule 5 Draft in 2006. They also picked Brad Ziegler and Jonathan Papelbon, but didn’t sign either of them.

Braves. First-round pick Jeff Francoeur spent most of his best years with the Braves, finishing third in Rookie of the Year balloting in 2005. Supplemental pick Dan Meyer was a key part of the Tim Hudson trade with the Athletics. Second-rounder Brian McCann became a superstar behind the plate. And third-rounder Charlie Morton helped the Braves land Nate McLouth, before becoming a sinker-balling mainstay in the Pirates’ rotation.

Brewers. The Brewers only managed to get much from Fielder (23.1 bWAR). They would have had a better case here if they hadn’t released late-round picks Tom Wilhelmsen and Craig Breslow before they went on to productive careers elsewhere, or if they’d signed 40th-rounder Hunter Pence.

Dodgers. The Dodgers got great value throughout the draft, taking James Loney in the first round, and then Martin, Jonathan Broxton, James McDonald, and Eric Stults later on. Martin accumulated 15.9 bWAR in his five seasons in Los Angeles, then continued his fine career in New York and Pittsburgh.

Giants. First-rounder Matt Cain was a huge hit, and the Giants also got reasonable value from second-rounder Fred Lewis and fourth-rounder Kevin Correia. Eighth-rounder Clay Hensley helped them land reliever Matt Herges. And unlike some teams on this list, the Giants didn’t have a mess of compensation picks, selecting just once in each round.

Phillies. Philadelphia got Hamels and little else, but in terms of WAR value, they did very well in this draft. This wasn’t an unfamiliar pattern for the Phillies, who two years later had taken Chase Utley with their first pick in a draft that otherwise turned up very little for them. When drafting, quality is far more important than quantity, and the Phillies rode their quantity-light but quality-heavy drafts to a World Series title in 2008.

Reds. Gruler was a huge miss at third overall, but the Reds more than made up for that by snagging Votto (34.7 bWAR) 44th overall. They only got two big-leaguers in ’02, but the other one, Chris Denorfia (19th round) also turned out to be a solid contributor. The Reds, however, didn’t reap the benefits, shipping Denorfia to the A’s for Marcus McBeth and a minor-leaguer in 2007.

Red Sox. Boston didn’t pick until No. 57 overall, but took Lester, one of the best pitchers in the draft, when their turn came. They also took Brandon Moss, who they sent to Pittsburgh in the Manny Ramirez / Jason Bay swap in 2008.

Royals. Like the Phillies, the Royals got little in the late rounds. But Greinke was a big hit, and he continues to pay dividends years after being traded — they still have Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar left over from that deal, and Jake Odorizzi helped them land James Shields (albeit in a trade that is controversial for reasons that have little to do with Odorizzi).

Tigers. First-rounder Scott Moore and second-rounder Brent Clevlen didn’t pan out, but the Tigers got Granderson in the third round and Joel Zumaya in the 11th.

Players signed on one-year deals are obviously on a different timeline in terms of value assessment than are those who ink multi-year pacts. For one-year guys, their club must get their money’s worth — through on-field performance, trade value, or both — in 2014. Now that we’ve had a chance to see a full spring and about 12% of the regular season, let’s take a quick look back at some of this year’s relatively modest, one-year contracts.

I will limit the list to players who signed for more than $4MM and up to $8MM (presented alphabetically; poll will randomize order). The early returns have been pretty solid on the whole. And remember — almost all of these guys will be free agents again next year. The poll question is simple: rank these players according to which you think will ultimately prove to have been the best one-year signings (given their respective team’s needs).

John Axford, RP, Indians, $4.5MM: leading league with eight saves; 2.79 ERA but seven walks already  in 9 2/3.

Bruce Chen, SP, Royals, $4.25MM: has made three starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 15 innings; his strikeouts are up, but so are the hits allowed (.417 BABIP).

Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Orioles, $8MM (plus 54th overall draft pick): off to a big .301/.386/.603 start with six home runs, though early defensive numbers are awful (-4 DRS, -52.1 UZR/150).

Mark Ellis, 2B, Cardinals, $5.25MM: has not received much playing time behind Kolten Wong, and is off to a slow start (.375 OPS).

Jason Hammel, SP, Cubs, $6MM: through four starts, has racked up 27 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball, including impressive 1.6 BB/9 and just 4.6 H/9; benefiting greatly from unsustainably high strand rate (91.7%) and low BABIP (.130).

Corey Hart, DH/OF/1B, Mariners, $6MM: has shaken off the rust early, with a .270/.333/.508 line and four home runs in 69 plate appearances.

Roberto Hernandez, SP, Phillies, $4.5MM: has a 5.75 ERA through four starts (20 1/3 innings pitched), but SIERA (3.63) and xFIP (3.39) like his work thus far.

Josh Johnson, SP, Padres, $8MM (plus $4MM vesting option): will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, but could still be kept in the fold for 2015 if San Diego exercises its option, which vested because he did not make at least seven starts.

Mike Morse, OF, Giants, $6MM: has returned from injury-riddled 2013 to post .279/.338/.559 triple-slash and five home runs in first 74 plate appearances; San Francisco has limited the downside of his defensive limitations with late-inning substitutions.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants, $5MM: a tough start has him at a 7.71 ERA through just 16 1/3 frames in four outings, and there isn’t much to sugarcoat based on his peripherals.

Edinson Volquez, SP, Pirates, $5MM: off to a solid start with a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings; his strikeouts are down (5.1 K/9), though he has limited walks (1.6 BB/9), but his BABIP (.233) and long ball rates (.32 HR/9) suggest some regression is coming.

Chris Young, OF, Mets, $7.25MM: dealt with hamstring issues early and has seen only 25 plate appearances, through which he has just a .440 OPS.

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