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Royals Option Kris Bubic

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Kris Bubic won’t breaking camp in the Royals rotation, as the club announced Friday that he’s been optioned to Triple-A Omaha to begin the 2021 season.

Entering camp, Bubic seemed to have a good chance of cracking the Opening Day rotation. A former top 100 prospect, he debuted with the Royals early in the 2020 season and went on to make 10 starts and total 50 innings, ranking third and fourth on the team in those respective marks. Bubic worked to a 4.32 ERA in that time, adding solid ground-ball (46.6) and strikeout (22.1) percentages but posting a slightly elevated 9.9 percent walk rate.

For a 23-year-old making the jump directly from Class-A Advanced to the Majors, it was a strong showing. Bubic finished on a high note as well, turning in a 2.96 ERA with 30 strikeouts through 27 1/3 innings over his final five starts of the season. He also struggled in Spring Training, however, yielding eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits and four walks with four strikeouts through 7 1/3 frames.

With Bubic out of the picture, at least for now, the rotation in Kansas City comes a bit more clearly into focus. The Royals have Brad Keller, Danny Duffy and Mike Minor all set in place. Right-hander Brady Singer, another former top prospect who debuted alongside Bubic in 2020, has been excellent thus far in Spring Training and could be the favorite for the fourth spot. Jakob Junis could be in line for the fifth spot, although the Royals have several non-roster players still in camp, including veteran Ervin Santana and top prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar.

Brendan Rodgers Out At Least A Month

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The Rockies’ wait to see longtime top prospect Brendan Rodgers get everyday at-bats at the MLB level will last a bit longer, as manager Bud Black announced to reporters Friday that Rodgers will miss at least a month with a strained hamstring (Twitter link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).

Rodgers, 24, has been considered one of baseball’s top all-around prospects since the Rox selected him out of high school with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 draft. As with most teenaged prospects, his ascent through the minor league ranks took some time, but he debuted in the Majors in May 2019 after utterly crushing Triple-A pitching that year (.350/.413/.622).

Adjusting to the big leagues was a struggle for Rodgers, who hit poorly for his first few weeks before being optioned back to Triple-A. He was quickly recalled when the Rox suffered an injury on the big league roster, but Rodgers unfortunately never got a real chance to right the ship and show off the talent that made him such a touted prospect. Just five days after rejoining the MLB roster, Rodgers himself went on the IL due to what was initially termed a right shoulder impingement. The injury proved to be far worse, however, as the Rockies announced three weeks later that he’d undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in that problematic shoulder.

Rodgers spent the early portion of last year’s shortened season finishing his rehab at the Rockies’ alternate training site. He was brought back to the big leagues in late August but only appeared in seven games before again going on the injured list due to lingering problems in that right shoulder. He didn’t return before season’s end.

Following the trade of Nolan Arenado this winter, Rodgers looked to have an avenue to everyday at-bats. Ryan McMahon and Josh Fuentes were expected to work primarily at the corners now, clearing a path for Rodgers to take everyday at-bats at second base. Looking beyond the 2021 season, he’d be the likely successor to Trevor Story in the seemingly inevitable event that he lands with another club (be it via free agency or even this summer via trade).

It’s a frustrating setback for the Rockies and their fans, although if there’s a silver lining, it’s that Rodgers’ shoulder seems to be fully healthy for the first time in two years. He was having a monster Spring Training through 10 games, hitting .348/.400/.652 with a pair of homers and a double through his first 25 trips to the plate. At some point early this season, he’ll likely be given an opportunity to seize an everyday job with at Coors Field, but today’s announcement means Rodgers will open the year on the 10-day IL. In the meantime, the Rox seem likely to fill out the starting infield with McMahon and the versatile Garrett Hampson.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Flexibility (both on the field and on the payroll ledger) was the key word in a very active Red Sox offseason.

Major League Signings

  • Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: Two years, $14MM
  • Garrett Richards, SP: One year, $10MM (includes $1.5MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2022; option and buyout totals could increase based on performance escalators)
  • Martin Perez, SP: One year, $5MM (includes $500K buyout of $6MM club option for 2022)
  • Hunter Renfroe, OF: One year, $3.1MM
  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP: Two years, $3MM (includes a dual club option/player option worth at least $600K for the 2023 season; buyout increases based on roster bonus and appearance incentives)
  • Marwin Gonzalez, IF/OF: One year, $3MM
  • Matt Andriese, SP/RP: One year, $2.1MM (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022; value of club option can increase based on innings totals)
  • Total spend: $40.2MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Continuing the trend of player turnover that marked Chaim Bloom’s first year as Boston’s chief baseball officer, Bloom’s second offseason running the team’s front office saw quite a few new faces arrives as familiar faces departed.  Most notably, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi will both be playing elsewhere in 2021, so in combination with last winter’s Mookie Betts trade, the Red Sox have now said goodbye to all three members of the superb offensive and defensive outfield that was such a big part of their 2018 championship team.

Bradley’s extended stay on the free agent market — he didn’t sign his two-year, $24MM deal with the Brewers until early March — created some speculation that the former Gold Glover could end up returning to Boston, and the Sox reportedly stayed in touch with Bradley’s representatives throughout the winter.  However, the signing of Hunter Renfroe in mid-December was an early indicator that the Red Sox were looking beyond the JBJ era, and the team’s subsequent addition of several other outfield-capable players seemed to further limit the chances of a Bradley reunion.

As for Benintendi, his departure from Boston also began to seem more like a reality as the offseason wore on, and trade rumors continued to swirl about his availability.  The Royals ended up landing the former seventh overall pick, joining forces with the Mets to work out a three-team swap that saw the Red Sox walk away with an injury-prone but intriguing power bat in Franchy Cordero, a young minor league starter in Josh Winckowski, and three other minor leaguers to be named later.

It wasn’t nearly the trade package that Benintendi would have commanded following his outstanding 2018 season, when the Red Sox were seeing him as a future cornerstone rather than as a trade chip.  Benintendi’s value diminished after a pretty average 2019 season and then an injury-shortened 2020 campaign that saw him hit just .103/.314/.128 in 52 plate appearances.

In one sense, the Red Sox were selling low on Benintendi, and an argument could certainly be made that the outfielder should have been retained in order to see if he could bounce back when healthy (and in a season played under less unusual circumstances than 2020).  But, after two down years in a row, Bloom might have simply felt Benintendi had already peaked, and moving him now allowed the Sox to obtain multiple minor leaguers while more struggles in 2021 would have cratered Benintendi’s trade value.

There was also a financial element to the move, as even though the Red Sox included $2.8MM in the trade to help the Royals cover Benintendi’s salary $6.6MM, that still left $3.8MM in savings.  That $3.8MM figure happens to exactly match the total of Cordero’s $800K salary and the $3MM the Sox gave to free agent Marwin Gonzalez.  This type of valuation was prototypical of Boston’s offseason, as the club spread its money around to several players rather than focus the majority of its available dollars on any particular big-name signing.

This strategy manifested in the types of player Boston pursued, as the Red Sox went after multi-positional types that could help out at several spots around the diamond.  At the cost of a two-year $14MM deal, Enrique Hernandez was the priciest of the bunch, but the super-utilityman can and has played every position but catcher over his seven MLB seasons with the Dodgers.

Between Hernandez, Gonzalez, and minor league signing Danny Santana, manager Alex Cora can now approach the left field and second base positions in a number of different ways.  Hernandez will probably get the bulk of time at second base, though he could also occasionally spell Alex Verdugo in center field.  Verdugo could get an off-day or move to a corner outfield spot in that scenario, which would then give Renfroe, Cordero or Gonzalez a breather.  It’s also possible for each of those players are all still in the lineup and another regular gets a day off.  In short, the Red Sox now have quite a bit of depth built into the roster in the event of injury or if one or more players are slumping.

The question now becomes whether this depth can be productive or if these new additions could be notable for versatility alone.  Hernandez, Renfroe, Gonzalez, and Santana are all looking to bounce back from poor seasons at the plate.  Platooning and juggling the lineup could put any of the quartet into optimal hitting situations and get them back on a good offensive track, plus the likes of Christian Arroyo, Michael Chavis, Jonathan Arauz, and Yairo Munoz are also available to provide even more options for Cora.  Top prospect Jeter Downs is also expected to arrive in the majors at some point in the 2021 season, so the Red Sox might have another position spoken for if Downs can hold his own as a semi-regular second baseman.

Bloom took the same wide-ranging approach to his pitching acquisitions, as Boston’s costliest arm of the offseason was Garrett Richards on a $10MM salary.  Richards and the re-signed Martin Perez are penciled into the rotation along with Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi.  Swingman Matt Andriese could get some spot starts or potentially end up replacing Perez or Nick Pivetta at the back end of the rotation.

It’s safe to assume that these six pitchers and other depth options like Tanner Houck, Daniel Gossett, Connor Seabold and company will all get some action as the Red Sox try to rebuild everyone’s arm strength and keep everyone healthy in going from a 60-game season to 162 games.  (Chris Sale is also expected to be back from Tommy John rehab around midseason.)  Indeed, signing an unspectacular innings-eater like Perez may have been almost a necessity considering how Richards and Eovaldi have struggled to stay healthy during their careers, and Rodriguez missed all of 2020 due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and myocarditis.  Thankfully, E-Rod has looked in prime form during Spring Training and appears to be ready to roll as Boston’s Opening Day starter.

Some of the depth starters might eventually join Andriese in contributing out of the bullpen, which will introduce a couple of external arrivals in Hirokazu Sawamura and Adam Ottavino.  Sawamura comes to the majors after nine NPB seasons and with a distinguished track record as a relief pitcher, making him a potential bargain investment for the Red Sox if he can come close to replicating his numbers from Japan.

The Ottavino trade would have been notable solely for being a rare deal between the Red Sox and Yankees, but the financial elements add more interesting wrinkles.  With New York paying $850K of Ottavino’s $8MM salary, the remaining $7.15MM price tag makes Ottavino the second highest-paid player of any of Boston’s new additions for 2021, behind only Richards.  While the “buy a prospect” (namely young righty Frank German) element is certainly at play, the Sox wouldn’t pay that much for a reliever coming off a 5.89 ERA season if they didn’t think Ottavino could be a productive player in 2021.

Many of Ottavino’s advanced metrics from 2020, in fact, are pretty close to his career averages.  The righty was hampered by some bad luck (.375 BABIP) and by one ERA-inflating nightmare of an outing on September 7, when Ottavino allowed six runs to the Blue Jays without recording a single out.  With this in mind, the Sox are certainly hoping Ottavino can get back to his 2018-19 level, and provide the bullpen with either a quality setup man or perhaps even a closer candidate to share save chances with Matt Barnes.

Trading Ottavino helped the Yankees ease some of their luxury tax burden, while Ottavino’s addition brought the Red Sox a bit closer to the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  The Sox reset their tax “penalty clock” by spending under the limit in 2020, but the team has seemed loath to surpass the threshold again so quickly.  Their volume of offseason moves has brought the Red Sox within range of $210MM; Cot’s Baseball Contracts has Boston’s tax number at roughly $204.3MM, while Roster Resource’s calculation of around $207.6MM leaves the Sox with even less breathing room for further spending.  That proximity to the threshold was among the reasons that a late reunion with Bradley simply didn’t seem likely.

Of course, over a year after the Betts trade, Boston fans are more than a little sick of hearing about the luxury tax, and undoubtedly many of the Fenway faithful are wondering why the team wasn’t more outwardly aggressive in responding to a last-place finish in the AL East.  Signing DJ LeMahieu (in whom the Red Sox had at least some cursory interest) or Connecticut native George Springer would’ve been a much easier sell to fans than a collection of multi-positional players who all struggled in 2020.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has outlined, it’s quite arguable that no big-market team should be worried about a luxury tax overage this year, considering both the small actual price in tax dollars and how the CBT system could be altered significantly in the next set of collective bargaining talks.  It could be that Boston’s upper management has decided that there isn’t any value in exceeding the CBT threshold unless the Red Sox look like a surefire World Series contender.

Bigger spending might come next year when Sale will theoretically be fully healthy, Dustin Pedroia’s contract will be off the books, and the Red Sox know more about what they have in Downs, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, and other promising youngsters.  Of course, the Sox will also have to replace Rodriguez in the rotation, as he’s set to hit free agency following the 2021 season.  They’ll also have to patch the many holes left by all the current players on one-year deals.

In the meantime, Bloom will surely continue to tinker throughout the year on a roster that looks improved from last season, but still seems at least a couple of steps behind the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays in the AL East.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Quick Hits: Bruce, Garrett, Mets, Mariners

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Thanks in part to his ability to play both the corner outfield and first base, Jay Bruce has put himself in the running to make the Yankees’ roster, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. The Yankees may have to decide in the next week whether to give a spot to Bruce, who can opt out of the minor league contract he signed on March 25. Bruce isn’t on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, which is full, so they will have to make a corresponding move if they do add him. That could spell bad news for another outfielder, the out-of-options Mike Tauchman. While Tauchman unexpectedly thrived as both a hitter and defender in his first year as a Yankee in 2019, his production dipped on both ends last season. Tauchman did post a .342 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances, but it came with a .242 batting average and almost no power (.305 slugging percentage, .063 ISO and zero home runs). Then again, Bruce didn’t exactly hold his own as a Phillie last year, when the veteran power hitter slashed .192/.252/.469 with six HRs over 103 PA.

  • Good news for the Reds’ bullpen: Left-hander Amir Garrett will pitch in his first spring training game of the year Saturday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Forearm soreness has slowed Garrett, perhaps the favorite to close for the Reds if he’s healthy. The 28-year-old notched a 2.45 ERA/2.82 SIERA and fanned hitters at a massive 37.7 percent rate across 18 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • With Carlos Carrasco reportedly to miss six to eight weeks because of a torn hamstring, the Mets are stretching lefty Mike Montgomery out and considering him as a swingman, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. Montgomery, whom the Mets signed to a minors pact, has racked up 183 appearances and 70 starts since he debuted in 2013. The former Mariner, Cub and Royal has combined for a respectable 3.84 ERA during his 541-inning career, though his ERA hovered around the 5.00 mark in each of the previous two seasons.
  • Mariners reliever Andres Munoz suffered a “little setback” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago and hasn’t taken the mound since, manager Scott Servais told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters. Munoz underwent the procedure almost exactly one year ago (March 20, 2020), and the Padres then dealt him to the Mariners in a seven-player trade last August. Considering how long it takes to return from TJ surgery, Munoz wasn’t likely to debut with the Mariners until sometime this summer, but now it appears they may have to wait a bit longer. Still just 22, Munoz impressed in his first season, 2019, when he pitched to a 3.91 ERA/3.72 SIERA in 23 innings, struck out 30.9 percent of batters and averaged 99.9 mph on his fastball.

Indians Owner Paul Dolan On Team Name, Lindor, Francona

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Indians owner Paul Dolan discussed several noteworthy topics regarding the team with the Akron Roundtable on Thursday, fielding questions from Amanda Rabinowitz of WKSU and a virtual audience, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (links: 1, 2). Here are some of the issues Dolan touched on during the Q&A…

  • The Indians are going to change their name, but the move may take longer than expected. While Dolan wants this to be the franchise’s final season with its current name, “It could be sometime in the middle of this year whether we know we’ve got it down where we can do it for 2022,” he said. “If not we’d have to push it to 2023. We’re working hard to get it done by then, but there’s no certainty in that.” Dolan added: “There aren’t many words in the English language that somebody doesn’t own in some shape or form. Particularly in the sports realm, that’s a real challenge.”
  • Dolan also addressed Cleveland’s decision to trade its most recognizable player, shortstop Francisco Lindor, to the Mets during the winter. “We could afford a player like Lindor. We just couldn’t afford to build a team around him,” stated Dolan, who pointed out that it’s difficult for a small-market team to dedicate so much payroll to one player. It was no surprise the Indians dealt Lindor, as Dolan all but admitted in 2019 they’d eventually trade the four-time All-Star when he told the team’s fans to “enjoy him” while he was still on the roster. Lindor is down to his last year of team control, in which he’ll earn $22.3MM, and could score a $300MM-plus contract by the 2022 campaign. With Lindor gone, the Indians are projected to open 2021 with a paltry $53MM payroll, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates.
  • Terry Francona dealt with health problems last season and only managed 14 games as a result, but Dolan gave the 61-year-old a major of confidence Thursday. “I think he’s with us until he’s no longer managing,” Dolan declared. “He’s under contract for a couple more years (through 2022), but I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” Francona, who previously won two World Series with the Red Sox, took over the Indians in 2013 and has helped them to a 673-519 regular-season mark with five playoff appearances and an American League pennant.

Carlos Carrasco Suffers Torn Hamstring

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6:12pm: Carrasco suffered a tear, per DiComo. It’s a serious injury that could require at least a six- to eight-week absence, a source told Mike Puma of the New York Post.

1:39pm: Just hours after Mets skipper Luis Rojas gave a positive update on right-hander Carlos Carrasco’s sore elbow, Carrasco is now headed for an MRI to evaluate the extent of a right hamstring strain, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (via Twitter). Carrasco apparently sustained the new injury when doing conditioning work following this morning’s 20-pitch simulated inning.

Given the new injury, DiComo notes that it is “exceedingly difficult” to see Carrasco being ready to step into the Opening Day rotation. The aforementioned elbow discomfort had already shut him down for eight days, and while he’d been building up in side sessions prior to that, Carrasco still has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game.

Obviously, a timeline on the injury can’t be known, but it’s a nevertheless inauspicious start to the talented righty’s Mets tenure. Carrasco, 34, came to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in the blockbuster deal that sent a prospect package headlined by Andres Gimenez to Cleveland over the winter. He’s expected to factor prominently into a deep Mets rotation, joining Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker among the top four projected members of the staff.

If Carrasco isn’t able to go come Opening Day, it seems likely we’ll see two members of what increasingly appears to be a three-horse rotation race make the club. David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto have all been competing for the fifth starter’s job and all have thrown well.

Padres Notes: Lamet, Johnson, Roster Decisions

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Padres righty Dinelson Lamet pitched multiple innings for the first time this spring Thursday, tweets A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com, albeit in a simulated-game setting. Lamet, whose 2020 season was truncated by a biceps injury that required a platelet-rich plasma injection in October, has yet to pitch in an actual Cactus League game since Spring Training began. Lamet tossed 17 innings in the first half of that simulated setup, and he returned from his downtime to toss another dozen pitches in the second “inning,” Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.

A concrete timeline for Lamet hasn’t been provided to this point, but he’s obviously a bit behind the rest of the Padres’ starters. Assuming he needs some additional time to ramp up early in the season, the Friars can still lean on Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon to round out the rotation behind Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. The 28-year-old Lamet broke out with a huge showing in a dozen starts last year, logging a 2.09 ERA/3.16 SIERA with an elite 34.8 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 7.5 percent walk rate.

More on the Padres…

  • Right-hander Pierce Johnson, who exited Tuesday’s Cactus League game early, has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 groin strain, tweets Acee. He’ll rest for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, though the club hopes that he can get in a couple more games by the end of camp, so it doesn’t sound like the current expectation is for him to miss any time during the regular season. Johnson, 29, returned to the Majors last season after a strong showing in Japan in 2019 and thrived in the San Diego bullpen. Through 20 innings of relief, the righty posted a 2.70 ERA with a gaudy 33.8 percent strikeout rate, though his 11.3 percent walk rate was also noticeably higher than the league average. He’s signed for $2MM in 2021, and at season’s end the Padres will decide on a $3MM club option or $1MM buyout.
  • Austin Nola’s fractured finger looks to have opened the door for Luis Campusano to make the Opening Day club, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest roster projection for the Friars. San Diego is also “reluctant” to give up on Jorge Mateo’s defensive versatility and speed, Lin notes, and the fact that the out-of-options Mateo is also hitting well thus far (.355/.462/.516 in 39 PAs) likely tickets him for a bench spot as well. The bullpen could have some tougher decisions as well, given the lack of minor league options for Dan Altavilla and Taylor Williams — both of whom have struggled to this point.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded their ace while former core players left via free agency, and attempted to add value back with a slew of one-year free agent deals.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Theo Epstein gave his customary Cubs post-mortem on October 5th, complete with the suggestion of “warranted and necessary” change that has been a staple of those talks since 2018, particularly as it relates to the club’s offense.  That day Epstein spoke of an expectation that he’d remain with the Cubs for the final year of his contract, but 43 days later he announced his resignation.

As one of the reasons for his decision, Epstein noted, “There are a lot of important decisions to be made that will have long-term consequences,” and second-in-command Jed Hoyer is ready for the top job and should make those calls.  That makes sense, as the Cubs lined up the contract years of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez to coincide in 2021.  Plus, the Cubs were firmly in cost-cutting mode, having recently laid off 100+ employees due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  They were, as we’d soon learn, also planning a cut in player payroll.  Epstein’s abandonment of his $10MM salary could be viewed as an act of generosity of sorts, except that the Ricketts family was the beneficiary.

The last time Cubs ownership experienced “found” money, they used Ben Zobrist’s unexpected leave of absence money to cover the bulk of Craig Kimbrel’s 2019 salary.  Kimbrel’s three-year, $43MM contract represents the only time the Cubs committed more than $7MM to a new player dating back to their February 2018 signing of Yu Darvish.  The Ricketts family opened the checkbook in that 2017-18 offseason, and then cut off Epstein and company for the better part of the ensuing three years.  It’s no wonder Epstein chose to leave a year early, especially with the likely knowledge that the Ricketts family was planning to mandate a payroll cut best accomplished by trading the team’s ace.

How badly did Cubs’ ownership want to save money?  Badly enough to choose a path unprecedented in at least the last 20 years in MLB: trading a top-two Cy Young finisher coming off a winning season.  Such trades have rarely been brokered at all – teams like to keep ace pitchers – but on the rare occasion they have happened, it’s been done by a losing club.  In late December, the Cubs traded Yu Darvish, backup catcher Victor Caratini, and $3MM cash for one year of veteran pitcher Zach Davies plus three 17 to 18-year-old prospects and another who had just turned 20.

Part of being one of the 30 people in the world tasked with leading an MLB front office is that you have to sometimes say things that aren’t true.  According to Hoyer, the $51.67MM in player salary the Cubs saved in the Darvish trade was “not the focus” of the deal.  Instead, Hoyer said, “The focus of this deal was to try to move a player in the second half of his contract and try to acquire a lot of young talent.  We don’t have many opportunities to do that. Look back at the last six years, when have we had the chance to replenish in any way, and this was an opportunity to do that and we took it and we’re excited about what we got back.”

The “second half of his contract” part is Hoyer’s kinder way of saying that he feels he sold high on Darvish, who is 34.  Darvish missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries and has only pitched like an ace for the Cubs for his last 32 starts or so dating back to May 2019.  Cashing the Cubs’ ace in for prospects was described by Hoyer as “the prudent thing to do,” but a more accurate phrasing would have been “the financially prudent thing to do.”  There would have been financial risk in keeping Darvish’s three-year, $62MM commitment, just as there’s risk the players Hoyer acquired won’t pan out.  A team with a good, veteran base of talent in baseball’s worst division would typically hold onto the ace’s contract for at least one more year, taking another shot at a championship even if they don’t get to “jump-start our farm system in a big way.”  Plus, Darvish is hardly overpaid in light of Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102MM contract.

All that said, threading the needle and trading Darvish this winter could still have been a good call.  The Rays do it all the time and remain competitive, though I’m not sure why the Cubs would try to emulate the Rays.  The problem is that if this was the best package of players offered, Hoyer should have held onto Darvish, and I’m not confident the Ricketts family endorsed that option.  The four prospects acquired are nowhere close to impacting the Cubs, unless they’re traded again in the near future.

We’re left with Darvish being swapped out for Davies, and there’s no real argument that makes the team better in 2021.  On paper, the exchange makes the Cubs 2-3 wins worse this year, in a division the Brewers are projected to take with 82.1 wins.  The Cubs are at 79.6, demonstrating the weakness of the division and the parity of the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds.  If the Cubs were in the NL West, the Darvish trade would have been more defensible.

Prior to Epstein stepping down, the Cubs made the obvious choice of Jon Lester’s $10MM buyout over his $25MM mutual option.  Though interest in a lower-priced reunion was mutual, Lester lingered on the market until January 20th.  He turned down a last-minute offer from the Cubs and signed for the Nationals with $5MM.  Lester moving on is notable for all he meant to the Cubs 2015-20, but at age 37 he wasn’t the best choice for their rotation.

Hoyer began remaking the Cubs’ rotation with the late December Davies-Darvish swap, adding Davies to incumbents Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills to form a trio that rarely cracks 90 miles per hour.  In January, the Cubs attended showcases for Corey Kluber, Carlos Rodon, Mike Foltynewicz, but elected not to sign them.  They wound up signing Trevor Williams, who had been non-tendered by the Pirates.  Williams projects to pitch roughly as well as Lester does (an  ERA near 5.00) at half the price.  Williams will turn 29 in April and is under team control for 2022.  It’s not an exciting move, but Williams will soak up innings at the back end of the Cubs’ rotation in a year that every team expects to go through more starters than usual.

One of the Cubs’ bigger splashes of the offseason was the signing of Jake Arrieta in mid-February.  Like Lester, Arrieta was instrumental in the Cubs’ playoff success from 2015-17.  The addition seems like a nostalgia signing more than anything.  In 2019, the now-35-year-old Arrieta had surgery for a bone spur in his right elbow.  His strikeout rate has steadily deteriorated, though his groundball rate has held strong.  Like Williams, it’s hard to see much better than a high-4s ERA here.  So far the Cubs have gotten exactly one MLB start out of an Epstein-drafted pitcher, and it was Rob Zastryzny in 2016.

The Cubs’ bullpen was supplemented in a similar patchwork fashion with the signings of Brandon Workman, Andrew Chafin, and Ryan Tepera for a total of $4.55MM.  The ’pen will again by led by the embattled Kimbrel, who is owed $16MM this year.  Given Kimbrel’s 6.00 ERA, 14.5 BB%, and 11 home runs allowed in 36 innings for the Cubs, he wouldn’t be atop their bullpen depth chart if not for his contract.  The Cubs’ 2021 bullpen doesn’t look particularly good, but Kimbrel serves as a reminder that this is not a problem teams can easily solve by throwing money at it.

About a month after declining Lester’s option, the Cubs had to make a tougher decision on another World Series hero in Kyle Schwarber.  Drafted fourth overall in 2014, Schwarber was long considered part of the Rizzo-Bryant-Baez core that would be up for free agency after 2021.  Schwarber limped to a 91 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances in 2020, setting him up for an arbitration reward somewhere south of $9MM.  The Cubs presumably found no takers in a trade, putting a sad cap on Schwarber’s Cubs career by non-tendering him.  Schwarber became one of the rare players to sign in free agency for more than he would have gotten in arbitration, and Lester joined him in D.C. in January.

In late January, ESPN 1000’s David Kaplan reported that the Ricketts family had “recently increased the Cubs player payroll for 2021,” presumably because Wrigley Field was approved for 20% capacity to start the season.  That same day, the Cubs had a deal with Joc Pederson, the first top 50 free agent they’ve signed since Kimbrel.  Pederson decided to eschew multiyear offers for the chance to shed his platoon label, instructing his agent to reach out to the Cubs.  As manager David Ross put it (according to Pederson), “I didn’t know we were going to get to talk to free agents of your caliber.”

Pederson owns a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching from 2016-19 – 14th best in baseball.  His mark against lefties is just 42, though he’s typically received fewer than 60 plate appearances against southpaws annually in recent years.  If Pederson can manage a 90 wRC+ over 129 PA against lefties, as he did in his first full season in 2015, he could be one of the better left-handed hitters in baseball.

The contract years of Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo will be a storyline looming over the Cubs all year.  The Cubs have a clear goal this year of resetting under the $210MM base tax threshold instead of becoming a third-time payor, and they’ve left themselves a hefty $39MM in wiggle room under that mark.  This year’s current $171MM CBT payroll drops to about $58MM in commitments for 2022.  As of last week, Rizzo was “very optimistic” about getting an extension done.  Perhaps a three or four-year deal in the $60-75MM range would work for both sides.

While Rizzo had an off year in 2020, Baez was the third-worst qualified hitter in the game.  It was only 235 plate appearances, but you can understand the Cubs’ hesitancy in locking him up for five or six years.  On the other hand, if the Baez of 2018-19 returns, the Cubs will have lost their chance at a bargain.  Baez is not setting a deadline on contract talks, and may be keen on avoiding a free agent market that could boast fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, among others.

Despite trade rumors all winter, Bryant stayed put and is even open to extension discussions.  That seems unlikely, however, and Bryant is a prime trade candidate if the Cubs are out of the race in July.  The team would have to be particularly bad to be out of contention by mid-July in the NL Central, however, which could present Hoyer with a difficult choice.  The Cubs already prioritized financial savings and far-off prospects over their 2021 record in the Yu Darvish trade, so that could easily happen again this summer.

The 2021 Cubs are not all-in to win another championship, nor are they attempting anything like a rebuild.  The club seems content with mediocrity, and that’s the most likely outcome.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Mets Notes: Carrasco, Thor, Barnes, Lucchesi

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Right-hander Carlos Carrasco resumed throwing today, pitching one inning (about 20 pitches) in a simulated game setting, Mets skipper Luis Rojas tells reporters (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The Mets remain hopeful that Carrasco can be ready for the Opening Day roster, though that much can’t be known until they see how he feels after throwing this morning and until he builds up more in subsequent throwing sessions. The Mets paused Carrasco’s throwing work last week after he reported some discomfort in his right elbow, but his shutdown was rather brief, lasting just eight days.

Some more notes out of Port St. Lucie…

  • Noah Syndergaard threw off a mound this morning, with Mike Puma of the New York Post providing some video footage for interested Mets fans (Twitter link). Rojas tells reporters that Syndergaard, who is on the mend from 2020 Tommy John surgery, is not yet to 100 percent but nevertheless reached 96 mph with his fastball in this morning’s session (via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). The 28-year-old won’t be ready for the Opening Day roster, of course, but based on his current trajectory he could be back in the mix by early summer. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.
  • Reliever Jacob Barnes is impressing Mets staffers thus far in Spring Training, writes Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Barnes, a 30-year-old right-hander who was claimed off waivers back in October, worked extensively with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to deepen his understanding of the analytical side of pitching. “Up until this point, I didn’t really have that,” said Barnes of the data-focused approach taken by Hefner. “So I was just going out there just assuming what worked and didn’t. He pretty much gave me a blueprint of, ‘This fastball works really well here and here and the slider [there].'” Barnes is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to either make the Opening Day bullpen or else be designated for assignment.
  • Joey Lucchesi is another Mets newcomer impressing decision-makers, as Thosar explored last night. Rojas and others were pleased with yesterday’s start, as well as Lucchesi’s work in simulated games thus far in camp. He’s in the running for the fifth starter’s job, along with David Peterson and Jordan Yamamoto, both of whom have pitched well. Rojas notes that Lucchesi is stretched out and won’t be used in the bullpen for now, which suggests he’ll be optioned if he doesn’t break camp with a rotation gig. That’d be a disappointing outcome for Lucchesi himself, but the very presence of such a decision speaks to the improved pitching depth the Mets possess in 2021 — something they haven’t had as much of in recent seasons.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The reigning AL Central champs moved on from their longtime left fielder, retained their top slugger and improved their defense. They’ll face stiff competition in their quest for a third straight division title, however.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

For the first time in half a decade, the Twins will open the season with someone other than Eddie Rosario patrolling left field. The homegrown slugger held that spot for the better part of six years, but faced with Rosario’s final raise in arbitration and with multiple high-end prospects on the horizon, the Twins felt that money was better spent elsewhere. The league seemingly agreed, as Rosario went unclaimed on outright waivers before being non-tendered. He’d go on to sign in Cleveland for an $8MM salary that gives him a modest raise over 2020’s $7.75MM mark but still falls shy of what he’d have earned in arbitration.

While it was at least a mild surprise that no club jumped to grab Rosario on outright waivers, the Twins’ decision to move on in some capacity was largely foreseeable. Rosario is a fine player with above-average pop, but given his sub-par on-base skills and rising price tag, the writing was on the wall.

The Twins have two of the game’s top overall outfield prospects, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, nearly ready for a long-term audition in the outfield. Kirilloff, who has a chance to make the Opening Day roster, made his big league debut in last year’s postseason and seems to be first in line for the left field vacancy. The Twins also saw former No. 35 overall pick Brent Rooker, a left fielder/first baseman, make his big league debut last year. Jake Cave gives them another option in left should injuries or struggles keep the prospects from taking over.

It may not have surprised as many fans as the Rosario move, but the Twins’ non-tender of righty Matt Wisler was also unexpected. Having plucked the former top prospect off waivers to begin the 2019-20 offseason, the Twins pushed Wisler to throw his slider at a staggering 83 percent clip. The experiment was an unequivocal success, as Wisler turned in a 1.07 ERA and punched out nearly a third of the batters he faced. His 13 percent walk rate was far too high, however, and though his projected arbitration salary wasn’t much more than $1MM, the Twins appeared confident they could replace his production.

With that pair of non-tenders saving $10MM or more, the Twins’ payroll outlook in early December was relatively pristine. Josh Donaldson is earning $23MM annually, but the 2021 projected payroll at that point was a mere $90MM — down from more than $130MM in 2020. The number plummets in 2022, when the Twins have just $48MM in guaranteed contracts on the books.

As such, the Twins had the financial wherewithal to pursue just about any free agent, but it quickly became clear they were focused primarily on one-year additions. Whether the driving factor there was uncertainty about further revenue losses in 2021, the desire to keep a clean outlook for next year’s mega-crop of free agents or a combination of multiple factors, the trend is clear both in the free agents they signed and in the names they pursued.

Minnesota tried for one of the market’s bigger names out of the gate, reportedly making a strong offer for Charlie Morton before he took an early deal with the Braves. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote back in November that the Twins were a “finalist” for Morton, but the righty’s strong preference to pitch near his family home in Bradenton, Fla. has long been known.

Pursuits of Corey Kluber and James Paxton led to similar results. After spending months rehabbing at a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey, Kluber went to the Bronx. Paxton re-upped with the Mariners, and Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said afterward that Paxton “wanted to be a Mariner” gave the club a “hometown discount” of sorts on his $8.5MM salary.

The Twins did ultimately add a pair of veterans to the rotation, inking 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ to a one-year deal worth $8MM and signing righty Matt Shoemaker to a one-year, $2MM deal after an injury-wrecked pair of seasons. In many ways, the signings mirror last winter’s signings of Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The more expensive of the two additions is designed to stabilize the rotation, while the more affordable one carries more upside and a greater risk of injury. The combined $10MM price point is a dead match with the combined $10MM base salaries of Bailey ($7MM) and Hill ($3MM).

While neither Happ nor Shoemaker gives the Twins a top-of-the-rotation presence, the organizational hope is surely that last year’s breakout from Kenta Maeda gives them the ace-caliber arm they’ve lacked since Johan Santana. Between Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker, the Twins have a solid Opening Day rotation. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe give them a trio of younger options with some big league experience (and a good bit of success, in Dobnak’s case). Right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran, both top 100 prospects according to FanGraphs and The Athletic, loom in the upper minors and could debut in 2021.

Jake Odorizzi remained on the Twins’ radar for much of the offseason, but his desire for a multi-year deal never seemed to align with the team’s general approach. While the eventual terms of his deal with the Astros may arguably have been a better investment than the one-year deals with Happ and Shoemaker, Odorizzi was reported to be seeking a three-year deal at $13-15MM annually for much of the winter. By the times his asking price dropped, the Twins had signed multiple pitchers and turned the page on the 2019 All-Star.

Looking to the bullpen, the Twins lost nearly their entire setup corps with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Wisler hitting the market. All four will pitch elsewhere in 2021. In place of that trio, Minnesota signed former division rival Alex Colome to a one-year deal and took a chance on a Hansel Robles rebound. Both have closing experience, and Colome has been particularly effective in terms of ERA over the past couple seasons with the White Sox. Even though Colome’s secondary marks don’t look as appealing as his ERA, it’s hard to find fault with the $6.25MM price tag. He’s expected to share closing duties with holdover Taylor Rogers, who took a slight step back in 2020 but has amassed a generally strong late-inning track record since 2018.

The Twins’ acquisition of righty Shaun Anderson didn’t draw much attention, but he gives the club a spin-rate project on which they can dream. Anderson has elite spin on both his four-seamer and, in particular, his slider. Walks have been a significant problem thus far in his big league career, but Anderson has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Twins can take their time in trying to shape him into a quality reliever.

In the meantime, the Twins will look for incumbent options to step up. Tyler Duffey broke out as one of the game’s best relievers in 2019-20 (2.31 ERA, 2.72 SIERA, 34.2 K%, 6.1 BB%). Flamethrower Jorge Alcala had a quietly excellent showing in 2020, and righty Cody Stashak is another largely anonymous but highly effective reliever through his first 40 big league frames. Southpaw Caleb Thielbar was tendered a contract in December after a strong season, continuing his emotional comeback effort following a five-year absence from MLB.

On the offensive side of the coin, the main storyline for the Twins entering the winter (beyond Rosario) was whether they’d re-sign veteran slugger Nelson Cruz. A reunion with Cruz was dependent on the universal designated hitter — or the lack thereof. Cruz reportedly sought a two-year contract, while the Twins were steadfast in their preference to keep the commitment to one year. With few AL contenders having the capacity to add a pure DH, however, Cruz seemingly needed the universal DH to be permanently implemented if he was going to create enough market pressure to get to a two-year deal. That still hasn’t happened, and Cruz eventually signed on for a third season at Target Field after the Twins upped their one-year offer to match the AAV from his first two years there.

As noted when previewing their offseason, the Twins didn’t necessarily have a true “need” in the middle infield, but it represented an opportunity to get creative. President of baseball ops Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their front office crew did just that, pursuing one-year pacts with free-agent shortstops Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien. When Semien took a larger offer in Toronto, the Twins quickly wrapped things up with Simmons.

In doing so, they secured a historically gifted defender and pushed incumbent shortstop Jorge Polanco to second base. Versatile Luis Arraez will slide into the vacant super-utility role previously held by Marwin Gonzalez, who signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Arraez, a .331/.390/.429 hitter through his first 124 MLB games, will get into the lineup regularly by filling in around the infield and in left field.

Both Simmons and Polanco have battled significant ankle issues the past two seasons, but the hope is that after a pair of surgeries, Polanco will be back to full strength for the first time since 2018. If Simmons is healthy, he and Josh Donaldson could form one of the game’s best left-side tandems on defense. Polanco has never rated as a strong defensive shortstop, but the Twins feel he can be above-average at second base.

If that’s indeed the case, the Twins could be one of the game’s best defensive clubs. Miguel Sano isn’t going to win any awards for his glovework at first base, but the rest of the infield, combined with strong defenders behind the dish (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) and elite defenders in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Max Kepler) should be formidable.

The Twins were dealt a tough blow early in Spring Training, when it was learned on report day that some knee discomfort being experienced by Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, was due to an ACL tear that will end his 2021 season before it begins. Lewis, widely regarded among the game’s top 30 or so prospects, hurt his knee during offseason workouts and aggravated it when he slipped during the blizzards near his Texas home. He’ll now go more than two years between competitive games, although at just 21 years old, he has youth on his side.

The 2021 Twins have a different feel to them than 2019’s “Bomba Squad,” but this looks to be an improved defensive club with a good bit of thunder in the middle of the lineup and a deep pitching staff. The Indians’ trades of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco have dropped them a ways back in projections, but improvements on the White Sox roster mean the Twins will still face stiff competition as they look for an AL Central threepeat. Meanwhile, both the Royals and Tigers added some veterans to complement rosters that are seeing the fruits of their rebuilding efforts percolate to the big league level.

This should be the best iteration of the AL Central we’ve seen in years. The Twins have again positioned themselves as clear contenders in 2021 and done so while maintaining the long-term flexibility to be prominent players in next year’s stacked free-agent market.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

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