Author: Tim Dierkes

This week's mailbag attempts to find a blueprint for the Royals, considers the Cubs' needs, ponders a Jordan Walker extension, examines Braves trade targets, explains how minor league options work, and much more!

D.T. asks:

Another season lost for the Royals. Other than BWJ and possibly Caglianone, their draft picks, which have all been very high, have traditionally been complete busts. What will it take to turn this organization around?

To answer this question, I'll start by taking roughly an eight-hour drive from Kansas City to Milwaukee.  The Brewers seem to be the model for small market contention.  How are they pulling it off?

Let's look at 2023 to present for the Brewers.  Their position players have totaled 83.7 WAR since 2023, excluding those who were negative in that metric.  Almost three-quarters of that WAR is concentrated in seven players.  Here's how they were acquired:

William Contreras: 19.6% of total WAR.  The Brewers picked up outfielder Esteury Ruiz as part of the Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline.  Ruiz was a 45-grade prospect lacking in power who didn't profile as a likely regular.  The Brewers then inserted themselves into the Braves-A's Sean Murphy trade a few months later, prying a controllable Contreras loose from Atlanta after a breakout 2022 season.  But the Brewers had Ruiz because they first had Hader, an All-Star dominant reliever with a year and a couple months of control left.  They had Hader because former GM Doug Melvin snagged him in a deal that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to the Astros in 2015.

Putting aside the significant work the David Stearns regime did to develop Hader into a star, Stearns was also willing to trade Hader while the Brewers sat in first place with a 90% chance at the playoffs.  Aside from the need for bold trades and strong player development, the Brewers willingly put their 2022 playoff chances at risk (and they did miss the playoffs that year) to set in motion of sequence of trades that netted them Contreras, who became crucial in their 2023-26 run.

The Royals had zero playoff shot at the time, but J.J. Picollo did pull off his own masterstroke trade by shipping Aroldis Chapman to Texas for Cole Ragans in 2023 before the calendar turned to July.  But assuming Ragans bounces back health and production-wise, he's the type of player the Brewers would be looking at trading this winter or at next year's trade deadline.  So my point is that selling high on Ragans, if possible, could help set the Royals up for more sustained success.

Christian Yelich: 11.5% of WAR.  Stearns made a "go for it" trade to acquire Yelich in January 2018 with five years left on his contract, extending him a couple years later.  To do so they gave up a 60-grade medium risk prospect in Lewis Brinson, a 50-grade high risk in Isan Diaz, and a 60 grade high risk in Monte Harrison.  So the Brewers gave up their first, fifth, and ninth-ranked prospects, presumably well-regarded around the game, yet none of them panned out.  Would the Royals put Blake Mitchell, Kendry Chourio, and another good prospect in a deal for a controllable 4-5 WAR Major Leaguer?  They probably haven't drafted well enough to feel they could sacrifice those players.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Tigers' decision points on Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals can be taken seriously, how the Rays could upgrade, the current trade value of James Tibbs III, and more.

Chuck asks:

With the Tigers collapsing in the absence of Tarik Skubal, even with his return relatively imminent, the national media are salivating at the prospect of his escape from Detroit toward the bright lights (and easier access) of, I guess, the media centers of Los Angeles or New York. Assuming the Tigers don't recover to even .500 by late July, my questions are: (1) Is trading Skubal the only reasonable option the Tigers would have? (2) Is there a real scenario in which it would be better to retain Skubal and let him walk, accepting the sandwich pick instead? (3) If a trade is certain, are there actually any teams likely to give up true top-of-system value in return for two-plus months of Skubal, and which teams would those be? For the final question, please focus on your estimation of the best those teams would likely offer, rather than an estimation of what PBO Scott Harris would accept.

After a 10-6 loss Tuesday evening at the hands of the equally lousy Angels, the Tigers stand at 21-34 wth 34% of their season in the books.  The Tigers still play in an AL Central where only the Guardians are projected to finish above .500, and in a league where the third Wild Card team is two games under.  There seems to be a decent chance that in the AL this year, a .500 finish could net a playoff spot.

The Tigers have won only three of their last 20 games, yet still hold a 16.5% playoff chance.  68 days remain until the trade deadline, during which time the Tigers will play 58 games.  The Tigers could reasonably let another third of their season play out before making a decision on Skubal, even if they need to lay some groundwork in July.

Skubal's last start was April 29th, and today marks the fifth start he's missed.  In the immediate aftermath of the injury, I wrote in this mailbag that I found it unlikely we'd see Skubal before the August 3rd trade deadline.  Then we learned about the NanoNeedle, a new smaller scope used to remove the loose body in Skubal's elbow.  This was the first time this tool was used on an MLB player.  Skubal threw a simulated game less than three weeks out from surgery, and there's talk of him returning in June.  Remarkably, it seems like Skubal could make, say, nine or so big league starts before the deadline barring any setbacks.  To answer Chuck's questions:

No, trading Skubal is not the only reasonable option the Tigers have.  The 2024 Tigers didn't look like a playoff team on May 27th either (20.1% chance) and they did indeed have a postseason run.  Simply holding onto Skubal for one last playoff push is perfectly reasonable if the team's chances hover in the 1-in-5 range or better.  I'm sure Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will take heat for holding onto Skubal if the Tigers do miss the playoffs, but I'd have no problem with it.

I don't think there's a scenario where the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive is more valuable than the players they'd get from trading for Skubal, in a vacuum.  The Tigers are a revenue sharing recipient that will not pay the competitive balance tax this year, and Skubal will almost certainly get more than $50MM in guaranteed money in free agency.  That puts the draft pick after the first round next year.  I haven't reverse-engineered the 2027 draft too closely yet, but we can safely put that pick in the #29-33 range.

You know I love mini-studies.  So I spot-checked the #30 pick for the 20-year period of 2001-2020, adding a few compensatory picks the following year for #30s who didn't sign (like the Dodgers failing to sign J.T. Ginn and drafting Michael Busch 31st in 2019).

I didn't want to get bogged down in control windows, and cutting this off at 2001 does exclude some very good #30s: Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, as well as David Wells, Jerry Reuss, Travis Fryman, and Brian Jordan.  Still, it'd be reasonable to say that the chances the #30 pick amounts to nothing in the Majors might be around two-thirds.  Although I will note that if you count Busch, the last few years have provided a relative bounty at this spot, as it also gave us Cole Ragans, Anthony Volpe, and Jordan Westburg.

The Tigers' trade return for Skubal, assuming he returns healthy in June, would come with more certainty and value than a draft pick around #30 would.  A multi-player trade package would also diversify Detroit's risk.

What makes this so hard for Harris is that he does not face a simple "#30-ish draft pick vs best possible trade package" choice.  That's because the #30-ish draft pick scenario means keeping Skubal for the 2026 season, which adds a big boost to the Tigers' playoff odds.  Let's say 25% playoff odds can be boosted to 40% with Skubal.  How does that and the draft pick compare to the trade deadline package?  This equation becomes much easier for Harris if the Tigers' playoff odds plummet toward 10% by late July.

So, a trade is not certain.  A trade is realistic, though, so the Tigers need to be prepared for sell, hold, and possibly even buy scenarios.  Would a team give up "top-of-system value" to rent 6-WAR type ace starting pitcher for two months of the regular season plus the playoffs?  We can search for precedents, though Skubal's surgery was literally unprecedented, so it won't be perfect.

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This week's mailbag gets into success rates for top-five prospects, the Rangers' woeful offense, Byron Buxton's willingness to accept a trade, and possible CJ Abrams suitors.

Don asks:

Of the Mariners' top drafted-or-or-traded for hitting prospects, three have been outright failures (Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, Jésus Montero) and only two (A-Rod and Junior) lived up to expectations. Is the M's experience typical of other teams, or do the M's simply have bad vibes?

I guess what I'm asking is what's the success record for, say, the top five prospects each year?

Let's assess the likelihood of success for a Baseball America preseason top five prospect!  For this mini-study, I decided to end with the year 2019.  That way, we're capturing players who have mostly had their chance to make a Major League impact, particularly within their six-year control period.

There is subjectivity to this process, but a sample of around 50 different players feels appropriate.  To reach that total, I had to look at the time period of 2007-19, since many players are ranked top five in multiple years.  For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking was in 2021 at #4.

Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not because I didn't extend the study that far back.

My way of assessing this is to look at the player's FanGraphs WAR for his first six years of team control.  Finding that window for each player requires some manual legwork, which is why I didn't make the sample larger.  Check out my data here!

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This week's mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh's struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays' shortstop situation, and much more.

Adam asks:

The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa's injury. He's out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn't Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?

Jeff asks:

I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He's having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?

Mike asks:

Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?

I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.

Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain.  As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February.  He's on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th.  The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far.  We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range.  That's not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent '25 season.

At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028.  And yes, he has a full no-trade clause.  So he'll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston.  Hader is a Maryland native, so it's possible he'd enjoy an East Coast team.

Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline.  As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader's trade value may be limited.  Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further.  He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.

For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he'd approve a trade.  A big market team would be a cleaner fit.  Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now?  That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers.  The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.

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This week's mailbag gets into potential Gunnar Henderson trade timing, the potential of Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett, possible All-Star Game starting pitchers, whether the Tigers might trade injured ace Tarik Skubal, who the Padres might add at the trade deadline, and more.

Drew asks:

Let's play a game, part 1: predict the odds on a Gunnar trade this year, offseason, 2027 pre trade deadline, or not at all. Part 2: What's his actual value in terms of prospect capital given his downturn in performance?

Henderson, 25 in June, is under team control through 2028.  This is his first arbitration year, and he's earning $8.5MM.  As a Boras client, Henderson isn't seen as a likely extension candidate for the Orioles.

As of Wednesday morning, the 16-20 Orioles have pretty much abandoned their hopes of winning the AL East, but are only one game back for a wild card spot.  According to FanGraphs, they have a 31.4% chance of reaching the playoffs this year.

After a 1 for 5 effort against the Marlins on Tuesday, Henderson's wRC+ stands at just 95 through 163 plate appearances.  He's shown good power with nine home runs, but is striking out nearly 31% of the time and thus has a .208/.270/.443 line.  Henderson's expected batting average is .225, so he's mostly earned his ugly early-season line.  In a full season, Henderson has yet to post a wRC+ below last year's 120, and he soared as high as 154 in 2024.

Has Henderson previously posted a .713 OPS over 35 games?  Yes - he was notably worse from August 19th through September 27th last year, when he hit .248/.333/.308 (83 wRC+).  He also had an early 2023 run of that length with a .684 OPS (.192/.328/.356 for a 94 wRC+).  What's happened so far is well within the range of normal variation for Henderson.  After that streak ended in '23, he posted a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way.

Henderson has spent ample time at both third base and shortstop in his career, though he's been at short exclusively since his monster '24 season.  He's demonstrated roughly average defensive abilities at the position.

The Orioles could reasonably fall out of the playoff race prior to the August 3rd trade deadline.  They could trade Henderson for three pennant races, moving on from his final 2 1/3 years of control.

Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias is a pragmatic type, but I expect him to re-load (to a degree) for 2027 and try to win again with Henderson.  Henderson projects to be worth 5 WAR this year and is making a fraction of his market value.  There's just no good reason to cash him in this summer.  I'll put the summer 2026 trade odds at 1%.

As we entertain this hypothetical, it's worth asking who would take over for the Orioles at shortstop.  Jeremiah Jackson, getting most of the second base share at present, is one candidate.  He was seen as having the athleticism for the position back in his prospect days, before he was traded to the Mets and then later released.  Jackson Holliday has five more years of team control remaining and could be a long-term option, though he's been slow to return this year from a broken hamate bone.  Jordan Westburg is on the 60-day IL with a partial UCL tear, so he's a major question mark right now.  Neither Holliday nor Westburg has played shortstop regularly since 2023.

MLB.com suggests prospect Wehiwa Aloy could stick at shortstop, but he's currently at High-A.  Former big leaguer Jose Barrero has been handling shortstop for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and could be a 2026 stopgap.

Is Holliday the best long-term internal bet to take over at shortstop?  He was seen as a plus defensive shortstop coming up, but as a second baseman last year he struggled mightily going to his right and did not demonstrate a strong arm.  Holliday has five years of control remaining, but he also has one decent MLB season under his belt and has yet to get going in 2026.

I'm trying to talk myself into the Orioles trading Henderson during the 2026-27 offseason, and I find it to be a major stretch.  They just don't have a ready replacement, so trading Henderson would be a huge concession for '27.  The Orioles are committed to Pete Alonso and Shane Baz through 2030, the resurgent Adley Rutschman is under control through '27, Westburg through '29, and Holliday through '30.  While I don't love that MLB core, pivoting to a reset this winter by trading their best player would be a gut-punch to fans.  Throw in a lockout that will likely eat up three-plus months of the offseason, significantly shortening the window to make a franchise-altering trade, and it feels even less likely.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' strong start, the Mets' terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize's contract year, and more.

Andrew asks:

I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?

FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we'll go with their 13.5% playoff odds.  The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out.  If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they'll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.

At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals' offense ranks sixth in the NL.  If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it'd be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.

Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team's total:

• Ivan Herrera - 138 wRC+.  The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can't maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real.    If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
• JJ Wetherholt - 132 wRC+.  The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations.  He'll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
• Alec Burleson - 115 wRC+.  He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
• Jordan Walker - 153 wRC+.  If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball.  Maybe that's optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
• Nolan Gorman - 81 wRC+.  He hasn't really hit since 2023, though he's OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year.  If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
• Masyn Winn - 103 wRC+.  He's hitting to expectations.
• Victor Scott II - 39 wRC+.  Scott isn't in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
• Nathan Church - 106 wRC+.  The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors.  I'm not sure I'd want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair.  Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
• Pedro Pages - 106 wRC+.  Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can't keep this up.

Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+.  If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting.  You can't help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.

Bottom line, though: there's something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost.  And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL.  What about the pitching side?

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This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.

Charles asks:

As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.

He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?

Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually.  For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.

My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction.  Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM.  We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance.  But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.

I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip.  I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.

Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration.  With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings.  For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend.  Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.

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This week's mailbag gets into how the Cubs' recent big contracts will age, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s future at second base, the left side of the Brewers' infield, the Yankees' bullpen, and more.

Alex asks:

How overdramatic of a take is this? Within 2 years, all three of Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will be upside down on the value of their deals. I've thought the Bregman deal would age like milk from the jump. Hoerner is solid but it's a lot of money to pay a Luis Arraez that can play a good 2b. And PCA's bat has always been suspect. There will a lot of good defense and PCA will steal some bases, but not a ton else.

I agree with your broader point: the Cubs recently committed to a $431MM to a fairly risky trio.

Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36.  The key passage: "He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too."

Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion.  At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad.  The Cubs are betting it'll be the last year or two.  It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.

Bregman had 42.9 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 31.  That ranks 17th in baseball history for those who played at least 90% of their games at third.  Let's make a list of those near Bregman on that list, excluding Harlond Clift and Bill Bradley for playing too long ago.  Here's their WAR from age 32-36:

• David Wright: 0.5 WAR age 32-36
• Sal Bando: 15.1 WAR
• Robin Ventura: 9.9 WAR
• Ken Boyer: 17.4 WAR
• Graig Nettles: 18.0 WAR
• Matt Williams: 8.8 WAR
• Troy Glaus: 0.0 WAR

Williams and Glaus were linked to PED use, so we might set them aside.  If we do that and assume Bregman will not enter a Wright-level injury spiral, these comps suggests there's actually a decent chance Bregman puts together a 15-WAR Cubs career.  That might put him in "Hall of Very Good" Evan Longoria territory.  More germane to this question, the Cubs would feel they got their money's worth.

Longoria is actually another cautionary tale, as a third baseman who had a better career than Bregman by age 32 but managed only 6.8 WAR from 32-36.  It's also worth considering that Bregman had a 125 wRC+ at age 31; Longo was a league average hitter by that point.  It was his early Rays career that had Longoria on a Hall of Fame track through age 30.

If Bregman can manage something around 5.5 WAR for 2026-27, then I probably wouldn't call his contract upside-down at that point.  You can read up on some good dollars-per-WAR stuff from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs here, but I'll ballpark the market at $12MM per WAR (per year) for a regular-caliber player based on that.  And that's putting aside the insane amount of money big market teams occasionally pay per star player WAR, like the Dodgers with Kyle Tucker.

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This week's mailbag gets into Jordan Walker's hot start, the Cubs' approach to Cade Horton's season-ending injury, the future of the Guardians, and slow starts for the Tigers as well as Braves third baseman Austin Riley.

Sam asks:

I know it way too early to ask this question I cannot help it. Jordan Walker has a 183 wRC+ and is on pace for 39 HRs is he has 456 ABs (ZIPS AB projection). He will cool off a bit—at least. But say he has finally arrived (met his potential, however you want to call it) and settles into being a 130-135 wRC+ and 30-35 HR hitter, how do you think that impacts the Cardinals' short and long term outlook with their rebuild?

Walker, 24 in May, sits at a 181 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances after hitting a solo home run in five trips to the plate Tuesday at Nationals Park.

I pulled up the wRC+ leaderboard last year through April 6th, with a minimum of 40 plate appearances.  Here's a list of the top 20, first showing their wRC+ through April 6th and then showing what it was for that player for the rest of the season.

1. Aaron Judge - 246 / 202
2. Kyle Tucker - 224 / 126
3. Kristian Campbell - 207 / 63
4. Tyler Soderstrom - 206 / 119
5. Jackson Merrill - 201 / 108
6. Spencer Torkelson - 193 / 112
7. Anthony Volpe - 192 / 75
8. Corbin Carroll - 181 / 136
9. Nolan Arenado - 178 / 75
10. Kyle Schwarber - 178 / 151
11. Lars Nootbaar - 171 / 90
12. Alex Bregman - 166 / 121
13. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 164 / 129
14. Sal Frelick - 162 / 110
15. Heliot Ramos - 159 / 103
16. Brendan Donovan - 157 / 115
17. Jose Altuve - 155 / 111
18. Teoscar Hernandez - 153 / 97
19. Eugenio Suarez - 152 / 123
20. Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 150 / 124
21. Jordan Westburg - 149 / 110
22. Shohei Ohtani - 148 / 174
23. Andres Gimenez - 147 / 60
24. Julio Rodriguez - 144 / 125
25. Nico Hoerner - 138 / 108
26. Jackson Chourio - 136 / 109
27. Seiya Suzuki - 135 / 121
28. Lawrence Butler - 134 / 93
29. Rafael Devers - 134 / 135
30. Brice Turang - 134 / 123

Walker came into the 2026 season with 1,039 Major League plate appearances and an 89 wRC+.  Every player is different, but the best comp here might be Torkelson, even though the latter had a little more experience and success in his career to that point.  But I'd say the range of rest-of-season outcomes on Walker remains very wide: this could be nothing, or a full breakout.  Sorry, the truth is often boring.

I also think it's worth asking whether Walker has hit like this in the Majors before.  For that, we use the Stathead Span Finder.  I'm not a huge OPS guy, but that's probably the best "overall offense" stat in this tool.  Walker's OPS is currently 1.014, spanning 11 games and 44 PA.  He has had a couple of streaks at least this good, basically in June and August of his 2023 rookie season:

• 6-6-23 to 6-18-23: Walker hit .395/.477/.789 (1.267 OPS) with 4 HR in 44 PA
• 8-22-23 to 9-5-23: Walker hit .432/.488/.838 (1.326 OPS) in 4 HR in 43 PA

Even in his lousy 2025 season, Walker had a 43-PA July run where he hit .342/.419/.500 (.919 OPS) over 43 PA, though he did not homer during that streak.

What kind of evidence is on the breakout side of the ledger?

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