Author: Tim Dierkes

This week's mailbag gets into potential Gunnar Henderson trade timing, the potential of Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett, possible All-Star Game starting pitchers, whether the Tigers might trade injured ace Tarik Skubal, who the Padres might add at the trade deadline, and more.

Drew asks:

Let's play a game, part 1: predict the odds on a Gunnar trade this year, offseason, 2027 pre trade deadline, or not at all. Part 2: What's his actual value in terms of prospect capital given his downturn in performance?

Henderson, 25 in June, is under team control through 2028.  This is his first arbitration year, and he's earning $8.5MM.  As a Boras client, Henderson isn't seen as a likely extension candidate for the Orioles.

As of Wednesday morning, the 16-20 Orioles have pretty much abandoned their hopes of winning the AL East, but are only one game back for a wild card spot.  According to FanGraphs, they have a 31.4% chance of reaching the playoffs this year.

After a 1 for 5 effort against the Marlins on Tuesday, Henderson's wRC+ stands at just 95 through 163 plate appearances.  He's shown good power with nine home runs, but is striking out nearly 31% of the time and thus has a .208/.270/.443 line.  Henderson's expected batting average is .225, so he's mostly earned his ugly early-season line.  In a full season, Henderson has yet to post a wRC+ below last year's 120, and he soared as high as 154 in 2024.

Has Henderson previously posted a .713 OPS over 35 games?  Yes - he was notably worse from August 19th through September 27th last year, when he hit .248/.333/.308 (83 wRC+).  He also had an early 2023 run of that length with a .684 OPS (.192/.328/.356 for a 94 wRC+).  What's happened so far is well within the range of normal variation for Henderson.  After that streak ended in '23, he posted a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way.

Henderson has spent ample time at both third base and shortstop in his career, though he's been at short exclusively since his monster '24 season.  He's demonstrated roughly average defensive abilities at the position.

The Orioles could reasonably fall out of the playoff race prior to the August 3rd trade deadline.  They could trade Henderson for three pennant races, moving on from his final 2 1/3 years of control.

Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias is a pragmatic type, but I expect him to re-load (to a degree) for 2027 and try to win again with Henderson.  Henderson projects to be worth 5 WAR this year and is making a fraction of his market value.  There's just no good reason to cash him in this summer.  I'll put the summer 2026 trade odds at 1%.

As we entertain this hypothetical, it's worth asking who would take over for the Orioles at shortstop.  Jeremiah Jackson, getting most of the second base share at present, is one candidate.  He was seen as having the athleticism for the position back in his prospect days, before he was traded to the Mets and then later released.  Jackson Holliday has five more years of team control remaining and could be a long-term option, though he's been slow to return this year from a broken hamate bone.  Jordan Westburg is on the 60-day IL with a partial UCL tear, so he's a major question mark right now.  Neither Holliday nor Westburg has played shortstop regularly since 2023.

MLB.com suggests prospect Wehiwa Aloy could stick at shortstop, but he's currently at High-A.  Former big leaguer Jose Barrero has been handling shortstop for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and could be a 2026 stopgap.

Is Holliday the best long-term internal bet to take over at shortstop?  He was seen as a plus defensive shortstop coming up, but as a second baseman last year he struggled mightily going to his right and did not demonstrate a strong arm.  Holliday has five years of control remaining, but he also has one decent MLB season under his belt and has yet to get going in 2026.

I'm trying to talk myself into the Orioles trading Henderson during the 2026-27 offseason, and I find it to be a major stretch.  They just don't have a ready replacement, so trading Henderson would be a huge concession for '27.  The Orioles are committed to Pete Alonso and Shane Baz through 2030, the resurgent Adley Rutschman is under control through '27, Westburg through '29, and Holliday through '30.  While I don't love that MLB core, pivoting to a reset this winter by trading their best player would be a gut-punch to fans.  Throw in a lockout that will likely eat up three-plus months of the offseason, significantly shortening the window to make a franchise-altering trade, and it feels even less likely.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' strong start, the Mets' terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize's contract year, and more.

Andrew asks:

I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?

FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we'll go with their 13.5% playoff odds.  The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out.  If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they'll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.

At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals' offense ranks sixth in the NL.  If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it'd be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.

Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team's total:

• Ivan Herrera - 138 wRC+.  The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can't maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real.    If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
• JJ Wetherholt - 132 wRC+.  The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations.  He'll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
• Alec Burleson - 115 wRC+.  He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
• Jordan Walker - 153 wRC+.  If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball.  Maybe that's optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
• Nolan Gorman - 81 wRC+.  He hasn't really hit since 2023, though he's OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year.  If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
• Masyn Winn - 103 wRC+.  He's hitting to expectations.
• Victor Scott II - 39 wRC+.  Scott isn't in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
• Nathan Church - 106 wRC+.  The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors.  I'm not sure I'd want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair.  Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
• Pedro Pages - 106 wRC+.  Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can't keep this up.

Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+.  If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting.  You can't help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.

Bottom line, though: there's something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost.  And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL.  What about the pitching side?

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This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.

Charles asks:

As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.

He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?

Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually.  For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.

My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction.  Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM.  We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance.  But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.

I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip.  I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.

Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration.  With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings.  For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend.  Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.

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This week's mailbag gets into how the Cubs' recent big contracts will age, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s future at second base, the left side of the Brewers' infield, the Yankees' bullpen, and more.

Alex asks:

How overdramatic of a take is this? Within 2 years, all three of Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will be upside down on the value of their deals. I've thought the Bregman deal would age like milk from the jump. Hoerner is solid but it's a lot of money to pay a Luis Arraez that can play a good 2b. And PCA's bat has always been suspect. There will a lot of good defense and PCA will steal some bases, but not a ton else.

I agree with your broader point: the Cubs recently committed to a $431MM to a fairly risky trio.

Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36.  The key passage: "He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too."

Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion.  At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad.  The Cubs are betting it'll be the last year or two.  It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.

Bregman had 42.9 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 31.  That ranks 17th in baseball history for those who played at least 90% of their games at third.  Let's make a list of those near Bregman on that list, excluding Harlond Clift and Bill Bradley for playing too long ago.  Here's their WAR from age 32-36:

• David Wright: 0.5 WAR age 32-36
• Sal Bando: 15.1 WAR
• Robin Ventura: 9.9 WAR
• Ken Boyer: 17.4 WAR
• Graig Nettles: 18.0 WAR
• Matt Williams: 8.8 WAR
• Troy Glaus: 0.0 WAR

Williams and Glaus were linked to PED use, so we might set them aside.  If we do that and assume Bregman will not enter a Wright-level injury spiral, these comps suggests there's actually a decent chance Bregman puts together a 15-WAR Cubs career.  That might put him in "Hall of Very Good" Evan Longoria territory.  More germane to this question, the Cubs would feel they got their money's worth.

Longoria is actually another cautionary tale, as a third baseman who had a better career than Bregman by age 32 but managed only 6.8 WAR from 32-36.  It's also worth considering that Bregman had a 125 wRC+ at age 31; Longo was a league average hitter by that point.  It was his early Rays career that had Longoria on a Hall of Fame track through age 30.

If Bregman can manage something around 5.5 WAR for 2026-27, then I probably wouldn't call his contract upside-down at that point.  You can read up on some good dollars-per-WAR stuff from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs here, but I'll ballpark the market at $12MM per WAR (per year) for a regular-caliber player based on that.  And that's putting aside the insane amount of money big market teams occasionally pay per star player WAR, like the Dodgers with Kyle Tucker.

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This week's mailbag gets into Jordan Walker's hot start, the Cubs' approach to Cade Horton's season-ending injury, the future of the Guardians, and slow starts for the Tigers as well as Braves third baseman Austin Riley.

Sam asks:

I know it way too early to ask this question I cannot help it. Jordan Walker has a 183 wRC+ and is on pace for 39 HRs is he has 456 ABs (ZIPS AB projection). He will cool off a bit—at least. But say he has finally arrived (met his potential, however you want to call it) and settles into being a 130-135 wRC+ and 30-35 HR hitter, how do you think that impacts the Cardinals' short and long term outlook with their rebuild?

Walker, 24 in May, sits at a 181 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances after hitting a solo home run in five trips to the plate Tuesday at Nationals Park.

I pulled up the wRC+ leaderboard last year through April 6th, with a minimum of 40 plate appearances.  Here's a list of the top 20, first showing their wRC+ through April 6th and then showing what it was for that player for the rest of the season.

1. Aaron Judge - 246 / 202
2. Kyle Tucker - 224 / 126
3. Kristian Campbell - 207 / 63
4. Tyler Soderstrom - 206 / 119
5. Jackson Merrill - 201 / 108
6. Spencer Torkelson - 193 / 112
7. Anthony Volpe - 192 / 75
8. Corbin Carroll - 181 / 136
9. Nolan Arenado - 178 / 75
10. Kyle Schwarber - 178 / 151
11. Lars Nootbaar - 171 / 90
12. Alex Bregman - 166 / 121
13. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 164 / 129
14. Sal Frelick - 162 / 110
15. Heliot Ramos - 159 / 103
16. Brendan Donovan - 157 / 115
17. Jose Altuve - 155 / 111
18. Teoscar Hernandez - 153 / 97
19. Eugenio Suarez - 152 / 123
20. Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 150 / 124
21. Jordan Westburg - 149 / 110
22. Shohei Ohtani - 148 / 174
23. Andres Gimenez - 147 / 60
24. Julio Rodriguez - 144 / 125
25. Nico Hoerner - 138 / 108
26. Jackson Chourio - 136 / 109
27. Seiya Suzuki - 135 / 121
28. Lawrence Butler - 134 / 93
29. Rafael Devers - 134 / 135
30. Brice Turang - 134 / 123

Walker came into the 2026 season with 1,039 Major League plate appearances and an 89 wRC+.  Every player is different, but the best comp here might be Torkelson, even though the latter had a little more experience and success in his career to that point.  But I'd say the range of rest-of-season outcomes on Walker remains very wide: this could be nothing, or a full breakout.  Sorry, the truth is often boring.

I also think it's worth asking whether Walker has hit like this in the Majors before.  For that, we use the Stathead Span Finder.  I'm not a huge OPS guy, but that's probably the best "overall offense" stat in this tool.  Walker's OPS is currently 1.014, spanning 11 games and 44 PA.  He has had a couple of streaks at least this good, basically in June and August of his 2023 rookie season:

• 6-6-23 to 6-18-23: Walker hit .395/.477/.789 (1.267 OPS) with 4 HR in 44 PA
• 8-22-23 to 9-5-23: Walker hit .432/.488/.838 (1.326 OPS) in 4 HR in 43 PA

Even in his lousy 2025 season, Walker had a 43-PA July run where he hit .342/.419/.500 (.919 OPS) over 43 PA, though he did not homer during that streak.

What kind of evidence is on the breakout side of the ledger?

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Happy Opening Night!  Logan Webb and the Giants will host Max Fried and the Yankees at 7:05pm central tonight on Netflix.  Until then, we've got a subscriber mailbag that gets into the Braves' series of core player extensions, which teams have the most concerning injury issues, outlooks for the Rangers and Pirates, and much more.

Matthew asks:

As a Mets fan, several years ago all I heard was how the Braves had built the foundation of their next dynasty by convincing multiple players to sign seemingly below-market deals. Acuña, Albies, Murphy, Riley, Olson, Harris, and probably several others I'm forgetting.

Obviously the team was besieged by injuries when they missed the playoffs last year, but looking back now, how are those contracts holding up? Albies and Riley have regressed, Harris was a tale of two halves last year, Acuña is coming off two serious knee injuries, and Murphy's banner year looks like an outlier.

Giving Acuña a pass because injuries are unpredictable (and he's still an MVP candidate when healthy), are there any of these contracts that you think AA would like a do-over on? Or, since they were seen as being below-market rates, are they still showing positive value?

Alex Anthopoulos has sat atop the Braves' front office for more than eight years now.  He's done a whopping 21 extensions in that time.

The biggest extension went to Austin Riley, who signed for $212MM over ten years.  Had the Braves not done this deal, Riley would've been a free agent this past offseason, theoretically coming off a couple of injury-related down years.  But he'd still be a 29-year-old with a three-year, 16.1 WAR run on his resume, so he probably would've signed a high-AAV opt-out deal.  As it stands, the Braves probably paid a bit above market value for Riley's arbitration years.  That's not a big issue, but from this point forward it's as if they signed him to a seven-year, $154MM free agent deal with an eighth-year club option.  That's not really the type of deal Riley would've signed this past offseason, but the $22MM AAV is low enough where there's room for profit if he bounces back in the next couple years.

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