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Derek Holland To Opt Out Of Minor League Deal With Red Sox

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Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland will be opting out of his minor league deal with the Red Sox, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

MLBTR reported yesterday that the new collective bargaining agreement contains a provision whereby any Article XX(B) free agent — that is, a player with at least six years of service time who finished the prior season on a big league roster or injured list — who signs a minor league contract will have three uniform opt-out dates in his contract, so long as that minor league deal is signed 10 days prior to Opening Day. Those opt-out dates are five days before the start of the regular season, May 1 and June 1.

That report identified 12 players who fit this criteria and have the ability to opt out today, with Holland being one of them. The negotiations of that CBA led to a delayed and shortened spring training, which perhaps played a role in the fact that these dozen players didn’t exercise their first opt-out opportunity before Opening Day. Holland essentially laid out this logic when not exercising his first opt-out back in early April, saying “I’ve only been able to showcase two innings” as his reason for sticking with the club. Now that the minor league season has been going for close to a month, it’s possible that this is the first of many opt-outs today, as any of those listed players that are healthy could reasonably try to find a better opportunity with another club.

Now 35, Holland has appeared in each of the past 13 MLB seasons. A starting pitcher for most of his career, he’s transitioned into an innings-eater out of the bullpen in recent years. Last year, he threw 49 2/3 innings for the Tigers with a 5.07 ERA, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 45.4% ground ball rate, with all of those being close to league average. Through 9 1/3 innings with Triple-A Worcester this year, he has a 5.79 ERA, striking out ten batters but walking six of them. The path to a job with the big league club isn’t smooth right now, as they has five healthy starters, with Garrett Whitlock recently bumping Tanner Houck into a piggyback/long relief role in the bullpen. Rosters are also shrinking after today’s game, with a 14-pitcher maximum taking effect. Boston currently has 15 hurlers on the active roster, meaning they will have to squeeze someone out.

Several Veterans On Minor League Deals Have Sunday Opt-Outs

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The latest collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association is rife with contractual intricacies, as one would expect. MLBTR has confirmed that one of the new wrinkles set forth in this latest agreement stipulates that any Article XX(B) free agent — that is, a player with at least six years of service time who finished the prior season on a big league roster or injured list — who signs a minor league contract will have three uniform opt-out dates in his contract, so long as that minor league deal is signed 10 days prior to Opening Day. Those opt-out dates are five days before the start of the regular season, May 1 and June 1.

As the MLBPA announced at the onset of the most recent offseason, there were 188 players who became Article XX(B) free agents. The majority of those players signed Major League contracts. A handful retired, and some have yet to sign a contract at all. There were still more than two dozen players who signed minor league contracts, however, which makes them subject to the new uniform opt-out dates. Several of those players — Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Moore and Wily Peralta, to name a few — have already had their contracts selected to the Major League roster. Others signed their minor league deal after March 28, meaning they’re not covered under the uniform opt-out provision.

By my count, there are a dozen players who qualified as Article XX(B) free agents, signed minor league deals on or before March 28, and remain with those organizations but not on the 40-man roster. Each of the following veterans, then, will have the opportunity to become a free agent Sunday if they’re not called up to the current organization’s big league roster:

  • Tyler Clippard, RHP, Nationals: The 37-year-old Clippard had a strong 2019 season in Cleveland and pitched brilliantly with Minnesota in 2020. His 2021 campaign with the D-backs was solid but truncated by a strained capsule in his right shoulder. He missed nearly four months to begin the year but pitched to a 3.20 ERA in 25 1/3 innings upon activation — albeit with subpar strikeout and walk rates (19.8% and 9.9%, respectively). He’s had a rough go in Triple-A Rochester so far, yielding seven runs on six hits and a whopping 11 walks in 8 1/3 innings. He’s also picked up a dozen strikeouts.
  • Austin Romine, C, Angels: Romine is 2-for-15 with a pair of singles so far in Triple-A Salt Lake. He’s never provided much with the bat, but the longtime Yankees backup is regarded as a quality defender and receiver. He spent the 2021 season with the Cubs but only logged 62 plate appearances thanks to a sprained left wrist that landed him on the 60-day injured list for a significant portion of the season. Romine hit .217/.242/.300 when healthy last year and is a lifetime .238/.277/.358 hitter in 1313 Major League plate appearances.
  • Billy Hamilton, CF, Mariners: At 31 years old, the former top prospect is what he is now: an elite defender and baserunner who’s never been able to get on base consistently enough to capitalize on his 80-grade speed. Hamilton slashed .220/.242/.378 in 135 plate appearances with the White Sox last season and is out to a 7-for-32 start with one walk and 11 strikeouts so far with the Mariners’ top affiliate. Hamilton has four seasons of 55-plus stolen bases under his belt, but he also has a career .293 OBP  that’s gotten even worse (.269) over the past three seasons (524 plaste appearances).
  • Blake Parker, RHP, Cardinals: Parker, 36, has yielded three runs in 7 1/3 Triple-A frames but is brandishing a far more impressive 11-to-1 K/BB ratio. He split the past two seasons between Philadelphia and Cleveland, pitching to a combined 3.02 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate against a 9.1% walk rate. Parker has had an up-and-down career since debuting with the Cubs as a 27-year-old rookie in 2012, but the cumulative results are solid. He carries a career 3.47 ERA with 34 saves and 47 holds. When Parker’s splitter is working well, he can be a very effective late-inning option.
  • Derek Holland, LHP, Red Sox: The veteran southpaw has provided innings, but not necessarily at quality since transitioning into a bullpen role in 2019. Last season he appeared in 39 games for the Tigers, tossing 49 2/3 innings with a 5.07 ERA/3.96 FIP. Holland’s time with Triple-A Worcester hasn’t been smooth, as he has a 5.79 ERA and six walks over 9 1/3 innings.
  • Steven Souza Jr., OF, Mariners: Due to an ugly knee injury and some struggles at the plate, Souza hasn’t been a truly productive big leaguer since 2017. Looking to revive his career with the Mariners, Souza has hit .200/.383/.333 over 60 PA with Triple-A Tacoma.
  • Kevin Pillar, OF, Dodgers: This season marks Pillar’s first taste of Triple-A ball since 2014, and the veteran outfielder is overmatching pitchers to the tune of a .313/.415/.627 slash line over 82 plate appearances. One would imagine this performance will earn Pillar a look in Los Angeles or perhaps another team if the Dodgers don’t select his contract. Pillar’s minor league deal guarantees him a $2.5MM salary if he receives a big league call-up, which could be a factor for a Dodgers club that may be trying to stay under the third tier ($270MM) of the luxury tax threshold.
  • Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Phillies: After signing a minor league deal with Philadelphia last July, Bedrosian posted a 4.35 ERA over 10 1/3 innings with the club despite recording almost as many walks (seven) as strikeouts (eight). The righty inked a new minors deal with the Phillies over the winter but has yet to pitch this season due to injury.
  • Shelby Miller, RHP, Yankees: The former All-Star pitched well with the Cubs’ and Pirates’ Triple-A affiliates in 2021, and he has kept up that strong Triple-A performance now working as a full-time reliever.  Over eight innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barres, Miller has a 2.25 ERA with outstanding strikeout (31.3%) and walk (3.1%) rates. He also hasn’t allowed any homers, a notable stat for a pitcher who has had great trouble containing the long ball over the last few seasons.
  • Matt Carpenter, INF, Rangers: Carpenter got a late start to Spring Training, and upon Opening Day, he expressed a desire to take the necessary time to get himself up to speed. Through 52 plate appearances in Triple-A, Carpenter has slashed an improved .239/.327/.457 with a pair of home runs. While not standout numbers, they are an improvement over the .203/.235/.346 slash line Carpenter posted in 901 PA from 2019-21 with the Cardinals.
  • Carlos Martinez, RHP, Giants: Another former Cardinal looking for a fresh start, Martinez has yet to pitch for Triple-A Sacramento, as he is still rehabbing from the thumb surgery he underwent last July. With injuries and a nasty bout of COVID-19 factoring into matters, Martinez has only a 6.95 ERA over 102 1/3 big league innings since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Keone Kela, RHP, Diamondbacks: Kela has also been ravaged by injuries over the last two seasons, including Tommy John surgery last May. Given the usual TJ recovery timeline, Kela isn’t likely to be a factor for the D’Backs until at least midseason.

Of course, players remain free to negotiate additional out clauses into their minor league contracts. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports, for instance, that lefty Adam Morgan has an opt-out provision in his contract with the Astros today. Morgan doesn’t have enough service time to qualify as an Article XX(B) free agent, but he’ll nevertheless have the opportunity to become a free agent Sunday if he doesn’t like his chances of eventually being added to Houston’s roster.

Red Sox Claim Jaylin Davis Off Waivers From Giants

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The Red Sox have claimed outfielder Jaylin Davis off waivers from the Giants, according to announcements from both clubs. San Francisco had designated him for assignment last week. Boston had a temporary vacancy on their 40-man roster, but they’ll need to make room once Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford are activated from the restricted list and Jonathan Araúz returns from the COVID IL. (Returning John Schreiber and Rob Refsnyder, who were selected as COVID substitutes, would clear two of three necessary openings). Davis has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester.

Davis, 27, is a righty-hitting outfielder with 26 games of big league experience. He suited up briefly at the major league level in each season from 2019-21, with 47 of his 68 plate appearances to date coming during his debut campaign. Davis only owns a .159/.221/.270 line in that limited time, but he’s been a prospect of some regard for the past few years.

Drafted by the Twins out of Appalachian State in 2015, Davis moved fairly slowly through the minors, in part owing to a shoulder injury that cost him the entirety of his post-draft summer. He reached Double-A by the end of the 2018 season and got off to an excellent start at the minors’ top two levels the following year. Minnesota dealt him to San Francisco at the 2019 deadline, and he made his MLB debut as a September call-up.

Baseball America slotted him as the #16 prospect in the Giants’ organization entering the 2020 season, praising his athleticism, arm strength and raw power. BA noted some questions about his hit tool, though, a concern also echoed by Kevin Goldstein and Tess Taruskin at FanGraphs this February. Davis has struck out in 27.9% of his plate appearances in the minor leagues, and he owns a subpar 62.6% contact rate thus far in the majors.

That said, Davis has overcome his swing-and-miss issues to post massive numbers at Triple-A. Over parts of three seasons, he’s a .293/.371/.612 hitter at the level. The Triple-A hitting environment has been very favorable in recent years, which no doubt helps, but Davis’ 38 homers in 523 plate appearances are eye-catching even in a supercharged offensive league. He’s in his final option year, so the Sox can keep him at Worcester as outfield depth for the rest of this season if he sticks on the 40-man roster.

Appellate Court Unsealing 2017 Letter From MLB To Yankees Regarding Rules Violation

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In June 2020, a New York district court ordered Major League Baseball and the Yankees to unseal a letter sent by commissioner Rob Manfred to New York general manager Brian Cashman in 2017 regarding rules violations by the club from 2015-16. The Yankees appealed that ruling, but the appeal was rejected by the 2nd Circuit last week, as Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported on Thursday.

The contents of the so-called “Yankee letter” — which is expected to be officially unsealed later this week — were reported by Andy Martino of SNY this afternoon. The letter revealed that MLB determined the Yankees had used the video replay room to decode signs during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The letter also revealed the team occasionally improperly used the dugout phone to relay decoded signs from the replay room to the dugout. When New York had a runner on second base, that runner would pass along the forthcoming pitch type to the batter. (The Athletic had reported in January 2020 the Yankees had used the replay room to decode signs). Allegations by the Red Sox the Yankees were using cameras from the YES Network to steal signs were found unsubstantiated in Manfred’s letter.

Perhaps the most notable piece of new information from the release of the letter is that MLB fined the Yankees $100K for the misuse of the dugout phone. That the league had fined the Yankees was reported in September 2017, though the amount of the punishment was unknown until today.

All of the Yankees’ rules violations outlined in the letter occurred prior to September 15, 2017, when the league informed all 30 clubs it’d be cracking down on sign-stealing. That sets the Yankees’ violations apart from the Astros’ 2017-18 sign-stealing scandal (which was also far greater in scope than the league found the Yankees had orchestrated) and the Red Sox’s 2018 misuse of the video room.

The Yankees and MLB both released statements this afternoon (via Drellich) that delineated between pre-09/15/17 violations and those that occurred after MLB announced its crackdown. As part of its statement, the league stated the Yankees “were fined for improper use of the dugout phone because the Replay Review Regulations prohibited the use of the replay phone to transmit any information other than whether to challenge a play. The Yankees did not violate MLB’s rules at the time governing sign stealing.”

The Yankees stated they fought against the publication of the commissioner’s letter in part “to prevent the incorrect equating of events that occurred before the establishment of the Commissioner’s sign-stealing rules with those that took place after. What should be made vibrantly clear is this: the fine noted in Major League Baseball’s letter was imposed before MLB’s new regulations and standards were issued.”

Fans figure to make their own judgments about the moral implications of the Yankees’ actions. Even if one feels that sign-stealing before the league’s crackdown was fair game, there’s no question the New York organization broke the league’s rules regarding the dugout phone when they used it to pass along signs from the replay room to on-field personnel. That said, nothing within the contents of the commissioner’s letter come as a surprise relative to what had already been reported. It’s clear from the league’s statement on the matter it considered the issue final after levying the fine five years ago, and there won’t be any further discipline.

Red Sox Promote John Schreiber

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4:30pm: Boston announced that Garrett Whitlock will get the start for Thursday’s contest. The Red Sox also reinstated catcher Kevin Plawecki from the COVID-19 injured list this afternoon, optioning fellow backstop Connor Wong to Triple-A.

2:57pm: The Red Sox announced this afternoon they’ve added right-handers John Schreiber and Tyler Danish to the major league roster as replacements for Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, both of whom have been placed on the restricted list. Schreiber had not previously been on the 40-man roster, while Danish had.

The Sox are kicking off a series in Toronto this evening, and players who aren’t vaccinated against COVID-19 are barred by the Canadian government from crossing the border. Under the terms of the 2022 health and safety protocols agreed upon by MLB and the Players Association, players who miss games because of their vaccination status are placed on the restricted list and don’t receive pay or service time.

Schreiber returns to the active roster, where he could get an opportunity to suit up in the big leagues for a fourth straight year. He made 18 appearances with the Tigers from 2019-20, posting an ERA above 6.00 in both seasons. Boston added him on a minor league deal during the 2020-21 offseason, and he spent the bulk of last season at Triple-A Worcester. He tossed 66 1/3 innings over 33 appearances, posting a 2.71 ERA with average strikeout and walk numbers and a strong 50% ground-ball rate. Boston selected him for one three-inning MLB appearance during their late-season COVID outbreak, then returned him to the minors.

This season, Schreiber has allowed four runs (two earned) in 10 1/3 frames with the WooSox. He’s punched out 13 batters against just two walks and will temporarily replace Crawford as a right-handed bullpen option for acting skipper Will Venable. The Red Sox’s press release noted that Schreiber had been “added” to the active roster, not that his contract had been selected. That could indicate he’s up as a designated COVID substitute, in which case Boston would be able to return him to Worcester and off the 40-man roster without clearing waivers. Danish could be assigned back to Worcester but would remain on the 40-man, since he was on there prior to today’s call.

Houck and Crawford figure to return to action when the Sox come back stateside Friday, beginning a weekend series at the Orioles. Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Michael Wacha are lined up for the first three games of this week’s set in Toronto, with their starter for Thursday’s game yet to be determined.

Rays Notes: No-Hit Bid, Suzuki, Yarbrough

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The Rays tossed nine no-hit innings against the Red Sox today, but while the no-no was erased during a wild tenth inning, Kevin Kiermaier’s walkoff homer gave Tampa a 3-2 victory.  Six different Rays pitchers combined to hold Red Sox batters without a hit or a run over the game’s first nine innings, yet the Tampa Bay lineup was also shut out (on two hits) against Boston pitching.  The Sox finally broke out for two hits and two runs in the top of the 10th, yet the Rays roared back in the bottom half of the inning for what might already be the most unusual win of their season.

This is the 15th time in Major League history that a would-be no-hitter wasn’t broken up until extra innings, and only the second time that such a game was tossed by more than one pitcher.  Matt Garza’s gem on July 26, 2010 remains the only no-hitter in Rays franchise history.  Tampa has been on the wrong end of no-hit games on five occasions, with three of those five being perfect games (from Mark Buehrle, Dallas Braden, and Felix Hernandez).

Some more notes from St. Pete…

  • Seiya Suzuki was known to be on the Rays’ target list during the offseason, and the club was apparently prepared to make a big investment.  Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Rays’ offer to Suzuki was “close” to the five-year, $85MM deal the outfielder eventually landed from the Cubs.  Between this push for Suzuki and the Rays’ even more surprising interest in Freddie Freeman this past winter, it could hint that Tampa Bay is prepared to be more financially aggressive than usual in its pursuit of a World Series, which might set the stage for some interesting trade possibilities as the deadline approaches.  It also seems like the Rays were onto something with Suzuki, given how he has been on fire for the first two weeks of his Major League career.
  • Ryan Yarbrough is set to throw a rehab start at Triple-A today, Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin and other reporters.  If all goes well, it could line Yarbrough up to be activated from the 10-day injured list in time to start the Rays’ game with the Mariners on Thursday.  Yarbrough has yet to pitch this season due to a groin injury.  Working as a reliever, opener, bulk pitcher, and traditional starter over his four MLB seasons, Yarbrough has a 4.30 ERA over 499 2/3 career innings with Tampa.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Chaim Bloom stuck to his playbook for most of the offseason, before finally making a surprising splash on one of the last remaining marquee free agents.

Major League Signings

  • Trevor Story, SS/2B: six years, $140MM (can opt out after four years, but club can negate opt-out by adding seventh year to make it a $160MM total.)
  • James Paxton, SP: one year, $6MM (plus two-year, $26MM club option and $4MM player option, meaning it’s a $10MM guarantee over two years)
  • Jake Diekman, RP: two years, $8MM (includes $4MM club option with $1MM buyout)
  • Michael Wacha, SP/RP: one year, $7MM
  • Rich Hill, SP: one year, $5MM, plus incentives
  • Matt Strahm, RP: one year, $3MM

2022 spending: $45.5MM
Total spending: $173MM

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Garrett Whitlock, RP: four years, $18.75MM, plus 2027 club option of $8.25MM with $1MM buyout and 2028 club option of $10.5MM with $500K buyout

Notable Losses

Since taking over the reins in Boston after the 2019 season, the Chaim Bloom regime has been focused on the future. Mookie Betts and David Price were traded to clear payroll and restock the farm. The remainder of that offseason saw the club sign eight players to major league deals, all for a single year. After finishing last in AL East in the shortened 2020 campaign, it was much the same in the next offseason: seven MLB deals, five of them for a single year, with only Enrique Hernandez and Hirokazu Sawamura getting a second. Few prognosticators expected a huge breakout from the Sox in 2021, but it came nonetheless. The club won 92 games, earning a Wild Card spot and eventually playing its way into the ALCS. Would that lead to a more aggressive offseason or more of the cautious tactics of the Bloom era?

Before the offseason began, the Boston sports world was given some very sad news as longtime broadcaster and former player Jerry Remy passed away in late October. A Massachusetts native, Remy started his career with the Angels but was traded to the Red Sox in 1977. He stuck with his hometown team for the remainder of his career, becoming a fan favorite before jumping into the broadcast booth in 1988. He became a fixture of Boston games on NESN and also wrote several books about baseball. Red Sox baseball surely won’t be the same without him.

As the calendar turned to November, the World Series ended and it was time for business. Kyle Schwarber declined his half of a mutual option for 2022, which was a part of his one-year deal he signed with the Nationals. The club declined options on Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, sending them to the open market. Perhaps most important of all, J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the final year of his contract, staying with the Sox for one more year, with a salary of $19.35MM. Eduardo Rodriguez received a qualifying offer, which he rejected. Finally, the club exercised its club option on Christian Vazquez, keeping him around for $7MM.

Once the free agency floodgates opened, Boston was reportedly open to a reunion with Schwarber. They were one of the teams who attended the Justin Verlander showcase and among the known suitors for Seiya Suzuki. They also made a multi-year offer to retain Rodriguez and reportedly had interest in fellow southpaws Steven Matz, Robbie Ray and Andrew Heaney. Javier Baez was also a rumored target, as were Jeurys Familia and Marcus Stroman.

Despite the reported interest in those high profile options, most of them signed elsewhere before the lockout. The Red Sox went into the transactions freeze having accomplished more mild maneuvers. They exercised the 2023-23 club option on manager Alex Cora. Michael Wacha and Rich Hill were signed to one-year deals, worth $7MM and $5MM, respectively. James Paxton was signed to a convoluted deal that reflects his uncertain status after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in April of 2021. He’ll make $6MM in 2022, a season in which he likely won’t join the team until midseason. Then the club will get to decide on a two-year option for the 2023-24 seasons that will pay him $13MM each year. If the team declines, Paxton will have a $4MM player option for 2023.

Just before the lockout kicked in, the club made one more significant move, trading Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of prospects. Bradley was coming off a dismal 2021 season where he slashed .163/.236/.261, 35 wRC+, making it clear this deal was about subtracting from the big league team to build the farm.

It seemed like yet another classic Bloom offseason: modest short-term deals for the big league team while keeping the focus on the future. During the lockout, there were rumors connecting them to Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, though it seemed hard to believe Boston would make such an aggressive move, given their recent history. The $14MM guarantee for Enrique Hernandez was the largest they had given to a free agent since Nathan Eovaldi’s $68MM in late 2018.

After the lockout ended, the modest additions kept coming, with Matt Strahm being the club’s first signing after the transactions freeze lifted. That was followed by Jake Diekman being added to the bullpen. Then it was announced that Chris Sale had a stress fracture in his right rib cage and wouldn’t be available for weeks. Minor league deals were given to Travis Shaw and Hansel Robles, who would both eventually return to Boston’s 40-man roster.

On March 23rd, just two weeks before Opening Day, the big splash finally came. Although the club was also hovering around the Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman markets, Bloom and his staff broke the mold for Trevor Story. The $140MM guarantee was ten times higher than the largest contract previously given out by this front office regime. The deal also has a complicated structure that could take it to $160MM. Story can opt out after the fourth year of the deal, but the Sox can negate the opt-out by preemptively exercising a $25MM club option for the 2028 season. That option comes with a $5MM buyout that’s already included in the $140MM guarantee, so it’s a net add of $20MM to the life of the contract.

For that significant investment, the Red Sox are getting a player who can provide value on both sides of the ball. Both Story’s offense and defense have been above average for his career. However, there are question marks in both departments. Story slumped at the plate in 2021, finishing exactly league average with a wRC+ of 100. On the defensive side of things, a nagging elbow injury seemed to be impacting his arm strength, as he made 11 throwing errors in 2021, easily the most of his career. As he lingered on the free agent market through the winter, there were some who suggested he would be best suited for a move to second base, as his arm wouldn’t need to be as strong there as at short.

Despite those concerns, he makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. Plugging Story in at second allows Hernandez to move to the outfield on a full-time basis instead of bouncing back and forth between the two roles. Secondly, the club has a potential hole at shortstop looming over the horizon, as Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the final three years of his contract after the 2022 campaign. Barring some catastrophic injury, that seems quite likely to happen. The club can use this season to evaluate Story and his arm strength before deciding how to proceed with their middle infield. If Story is deemed capable of returning to the left side of the diamond, then they can let Bogaerts walk. If not, they can try to re-sign him or turn their attentions to one of the other available shortstops in this winter’s class. (Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson will be there, and they’ll more than likely be joined by Correa, who has an opt-out in his deal with the Twins.)

There is a financial element at play in all of this also, as the Story deal has pushed the Red Sox beyond the luxury tax line for the first time since Betts and Price were sent to L.A. Their luxury tax number is currently sitting just under $239MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new CBA, the lowest tier of the luxury tax system begins at $230MM.

That won’t lead to a huge financial penalty, since the Red Sox would be a “first time” payor and only responsible for a 20% tax on spending between $230MM and $250MM. In this case, the tax would be around $1.7MM. However, even a small overage can have compounding effects, as the penalties increase for team’s that pay the tax in consecutive years. For instance, the Padres went just barely over the line in 2021 and paid a $1.29MM tax bill. However, they then seemed determined to not cross the line again in 2022, spending much of their offseason trying to move Eric Hosmer’s contract and not upgrading in the outfield corners despite a bevy of available free agents.

For the Red Sox, it’s possible that they’re not so worried about crossing the tax line for a second consecutive year due to the fact that they have a lot of money coming off the books after this season. Martinez ($19.375MM), Nathan Eovaldi ($17MM), Vazquez ($7MM), Hernandez ($8MM), Wacha ($7MM), Hill ($5MM), Strahm ($3MM), Robles ($2.25MM), Kevin Plawecki ($2.25MM) and Shaw ($1.5MM) are all in the final years of their respective deals, accounting for $72.375MM coming straight off the books. If Bogaerts opts out, that’s another $20MM. Bradley has a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that has an $8MM buyout. Sawamura also has a complicated option for 2023 that could see him hit free agency. (The Red Sox hold a club option valued at $3-4MM depending on performance escalators and milestones. Should they decline their half, Sawamura would have a player option valued between $600K and $2.2MM.) There’s also the aforementioned Paxton situation.

Complications aside, the club will have somewhere between $72.375MM and around $100MM coming off the ledger in a few months. Of course, that also means that they will have plenty of holes to fill, but the club is surely hoping to fill as many as possible in-house so that they don’t need to go back out and spend over the CBT line again next year. Bogaerts could be replaced by Story. Martinez’s bat could be replaced by Triston Casas emerging and joining Bobby Dalbec in the first base/designated hitter mix. Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill departing will strip the rotation down to Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, but Paxton could potentially take one spot, with youngsters like Kutter Crawford or Connor Seabold maybe taking another. Hernandez and Bradley being subtracted from the outfield creates a couple of holes, but maybe Jarren Duran can take a step forward this year.

As Spring Training wound down, the club agreed to an extension with Garrett Whitlock — another future rotation candidate. However, the Sox failed to do so with Bogaerts, Eovaldi or Rafael Devers. It’s possible for a huge amount of roster turnover a year from now, and that’s only the beginning of the uncertainty facing the team. The club is in a stacked AL East where any of the four non-Baltimore teams could be seen as the frontrunner or the fourth-best.

The Red Sox are facing a few months with dozens of potential outcomes, both on the field and off. They could fall out of contention and trade away some of their expiring contracts, thus ducking back below the CBT line. But it’s also possible they’ve cobbled together a squad that can hang with the other contenders in the division, just like they did last year. Either way, a handful of guys will likely be wearing a different uniform next year. Martinez, Eovaldi and Bogaerts would all be qualifying offer candidates, but the QO system could be scrapped if MLB and the MLBPA can agree to an international draft framework before this summer. There’s no shortage of uncertainty around this Red Sox roster, in what figures to be yet another wild year in the AL East.

Red Sox Activate Christian Vazquez

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Apr. 20: Vazquez has been reinstated with Hernandez optioned backed to Triple-A Worcester, per a team announcement.

Apr. 19: The Red Sox have selected the contract of veteran infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder and recalled right-hander Tyler Danish from Triple-A Worcester, per a club announcement. Catcher Christian Vazquez and infielder Jonathan Arauz were placed on the Covid-19-related injured list.

The series of moves leaves Connor Wong as the only catcher on Boston’s active roster, as backup Kevin Plawecki was also placed on the Covid list yesterday. It would appear that additional moves could be forthcoming, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported last night that minor league catcher Ronaldo Hernandez was expected to be promoted to the big league roster. Hernandez has since shared news of a big league call-up on his Instagram story. The Sox have not yet formally announced that move, however.

Refsnyder, 31, spent the 2021 season with the Twins and logged 157 Major League plate appearances, batting at a .245/.325/.338 pace while spending time at all three outfield positions. Refsnyder also has ample experience at second base and third base, though Minnesota used him exclusively in the outfield. In 614 career plate appearances between the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers and Twins, Refsnyder is a .224/.310/.308 hitter.

Both Vazquez and Arauz will be away from the Sox for a yet-to-be-determined period of time. Boston has not yet announced whether either Vazquez or Arauz has tested positive or whether they’re showing symptoms and thus undergoing further testing. The jointly agreed-upon health and safety protocols for the 2022 season stipulate a 10-day absence following a positive test, though that absence can be shortened if the player records a pair of negative PCR tests and is approved by a team medical official and a joint committee of one MLB-appointed and one MLBPA-appointed doctor.

Red Sox Place Kevin Plawecki On Covid IL

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The Red Sox are placing catcher Kevin Plawecki on the Covid-19-related injured list after he tested positive this morning, tweets Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Plawecki and a pair of Red Sox staff members had positive tests this morning. The two staffers are not on the coaching staff, tweets Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Catcher Connor Wong is already headed to Fenway Park from nearby Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding move. Plawecki’s placement on the Covid list will temporarily open a 40-man roster spot, though Wong is already on the 40-man, so for the time being Boston’s 40-man roster will be at 39 players.

Major League Baseball’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, which were jointly agreed upon by the league and the players association, stipulate a 10-day absence for players who test positive, but it’s not a strict 10-day requirement. Plawecki will be able to return to the team sooner if he has a pair of negative PCR tests, goes more than 24 hours without a fever and is approved both by a Red Sox medical official and a panel of one MLB-appointed and one MLBPA-appointed third-party medical expert (the “joint committee”). Plawecki is vaccinated, tweets ESPN’s Joon Lee.

The 31-year-old Plawecki has appeared in four games for the Sox thus far, collecting a hit, a walk and a sacrifice fly in 12 plate appearances. He’s in his third season with Boston and enjoyed a career-best run at the plate in 2020-21 with the Sox, hitting a combined .305/.364/.414 in 262 plate appearances. Wong, 25, went 4-for-13 with a double and a triple in last year’s MLB debut with the Red Sox. One of three players the Sox received in the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers, Wong hit .256/.289/.442 in 208 Triple-A plate appearances last season and is out to a 4-for-16 start with the WooSox thus far in 2022.

Tanner Houck Not Vaccinated, To Miss Toronto Series

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Tanner Houck indicated that he is not vaccinated against COVID-19, and therefore, he will be unable to travel to Toronto to make his scheduled start later this month, per Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. Players do not have to be vaccinated, but any traveler heading into Canada does. Houck is scheduled to pitch against the Blue Jays in Boston on Thursday, putting him in line to start in Toronto the following Tuesday (April 26). The Red Sox will have to shift their rotation around, potentially pushing Houck’s next start to the following series in Baltimore. This shouldn’t be a big issue for Boston, as the club won’t play in Toronto again until a 3-game set at the end of June. They also play in Toronto for three of the season’s final six games. So at the end of the year this could be something that Boston has to think about, but that’s a problem for another day.

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