Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Yankees Rumors

Latest On Brian Cashman’s Future

By | at

Brian Cashman’s contract with the Yankees officially ended on October 31, but while he’s no longer an employee of the team, he continues to act as GM and the expectation is his contract will be extended, per Andy Martino of SNY. Jon Heyman of the NY Post is even more certain, citing a source saying there’s a “100 percent” chance Cashman returns.

Cashman has been with the Yankees since 1986, and served as their GM since 1998. During that time the team has gone to the World Series seven times, winning four championships, the last of which came in 2009. They’ve made the playoffs each of the past six seasons, but there’s been some frustration among Yankees fans over the team’s inability to get back to the World Series lately. That frustration does not appear to extend to owner Hal Steinbrenner though, and Martino cites the strong bond between Cashman and the Steinbrenners as reason to believe that even if a split were to happen, it would be amicable.

The expectation is that a renewal will happen, although Martino reports that while Cashman and Steinbrenner have discussed the future of the franchise recently, they haven’t talked on contract terms. Cashman’s previous contract was a five-year, $25MM deal signed in December of 2017. Nonetheless, it seems a near formality that Cashman’s contract will be renewed, and the Yankees can turn their attention to the playing roster moving forward, beginning with the enormous task of trying to re-sign Aaron Judge.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

By | at

The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

By | at

The Yankees just posted their 30th consecutive winning season and made the playoffs for a sixth straight year. Yet there’s an air of uncertainty hanging over the offseason, with a decent chunk of the roster reaching free agency, headlined by face of the franchise and AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $216MM through 2028. Can opt out after 2024 but team can void that by tacking on $36MM option for 2029.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $160MM through 2027, including $10MM buyout on $25MM club option for 2028.
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $60MM through 2026.
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $31.36MM through 2025, including $1MM buyout on $12.5MM club option for 2026.
  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $27MM through 2023, including $6MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2024.
  • Harrison Bader, OF: $5.2MM through 2023.

Option Decisions

Total 2023 commitments (if Rizzo exercises option): $136.74MM
Total future commitments: $516.31MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s no real secret the big question facing the Yankees this winter is whether or not they can convince Aaron Judge to come back. Spring extension talks got a little bit awkward, with the slugger and the club failing to come to an agreement. General manager Brian Cashman took the unusual step of announcing the details of their offerJudge turned down, which was for $213.5MM over seven years, an average annual value of $30.5MM. Judge was reportedly looking for an AAV around Mike Trout’s $36MM on a longer term.

Turning down a contract offer of that size was certainly risky, as many things could have gone wrong for Judge in 2022, including a serious injury. However, the bet paid off in about the best way imaginable, as he ended up having an outstanding season. Not only did he hit 62 home runs and set a new American League record in that category, he also flirted with a Triple Crown, stole 16 bases, played about half the year in center field and got good marks in the process. His final slash line of .311/.425/.686 amounts to goofy-looking numbers like a 207 wRC+ and a 211 OPS+. He was worth 11.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs and 10.6 from Baseball Reference. That fWAR total hasn’t been seen since from a position player since Barry Bonds. And if you’re the type that wants to ignore Bonds, you’re going back to Mickey Mantle in the late ’50s.

There’s no doubting Judge will get paid more than what he turned down, the question is who will pay him. Judge has been quite tight-lipped about his preferences, but that hasn’t stopped people from speculating. Some will point to the boos he received during the Yankees’ frustrating postseason and suggest perhaps Judge would prefer to go to the Giants, further from the pressures of New York and closer to his Bay Area family. Others suggest there’s no way the Yankees will allow the PR nightmare of letting their best player be pried away from them. The Dodgers are always a threat and are reportedly willing to move Mookie Betts to second base in order to fit Judge into the picture. Much ink will be spilled and many clicks will be generated until we know the correct answer.

The Yankees certainly have the payroll to make it happen if they want. Roster Resource estimates they’re currently slated to spend about $192MM next year. Picking up Severino’s option would add $12.25MM but Rizzo’s likely opt-out will subtract $16MM, getting them just under the $190MM mark. However, the club could then give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $19.65MM this year. If he were to accept, the payroll would climb to about $210MM.

Their Opening Day payroll in 2022 was $246MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to cap their 2023 spending around this year’s levels, they should have close to $60MM to work with, or around $40MM if Rizzo accepts the QO. Given that Judge’s home run chase generated plenty of ticket sales, merchandise sales and TV ratings, there’s certainly an argument for a bump. Also, the Yankees have been usurped as the big dog on the block, getting outspent by the Dodgers and Mets this year. Perhaps they would feel the time is right to retake that throne in order to retain such a special player.

However, baseball games aren’t won by individuals and the club will also need to think about the rest of the roster. The outfield is currently set to lose both Judge and Andrew Benintendi to free agency, leaving the options on the grass looking a little thin. Deadline acquisition Harrison Bader will be in center and sure to provide excellent defense as well as adequate offense, or perhaps better. Aaron Hicks is still around but he hasn’t been both healthy and good at the same time since 2018. The Yankees would probably love to find a way to move him, but shedding any notable portion of the roughly $30MM remaining on his contract looks unlikely. At the very least, they’d presumably want to keep him in a fourth outfield role if they can’t find a trade partner. Giancarlo Stanton is mostly a designated hitter, taking the field in 38 games in 2022, his highest such total since 2018. He turns 33 this month and can’t really be counted on for anything more than occasional stints on the grass.

Oswaldo Cabrera was an infielder in the minors but learned outfield on the fly in order to help the team out down the stretch. He had a nice debut but in a small sample of just 44 games. Estevan Florial has shown promise in the minors but hasn’t yet been able to transfer that to the majors. He’ll be out of options next year and will need a spot on the active roster or have to be designated for assignment. Tim Locastro has wheels but is best suited for a bench/pinch runner role since his bat hasn’t shown enough to earn a regular gig. If Judge is indeed compelled to return, then things look much better. He can slot into right field next to Bader, with some combo of Hicks, Cabrera, Stanton and Florial covering left. Without him, it obviously needs addressing, with the Yanks then having to turn to lesser options like Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson or Mitch Haniger. Even with Judge, the Yanks might be wise to add to this crew in order to bump Hicks down the depth chart and free up Cabrera to play the infield.

There are also some question marks on the infield. A year ago, the Yankees steered clear of the big free agent shortstops, evidently quite confident that prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe could eventually take over the position. To that end, they acquired a placeholder in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who had a typical season for him, combining strong defense with subpar offense. However, some defensive miscues put a dent in his postseason playing time. Peraza had a strong season in Triple-A and got up to the big leagues by the end of the year, appearing in 18 regular season games as well as three in the postseason. Volpe spent most of the year in Double-A but got up to Triple-A by season’s end. Neither Peraza nor Volpe has done enough to guarantee themselves the job just yet, which means it makes sense to tender IKF a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. If he is eventually leaped on the depth chart by one of the young guns, he can then slide into a utility role. There’s also the presence of Cabrera, who could be in this mix if he’s not needed in the outfield. Given those various options, it’s possible the Yanks will avoid yet another big free agent shortstop market. If they are confident enough in the youngsters, they could even consider trading Kiner-Falefa, though that certainly comes with risk.

Elsewhere on the infield, Anthony Rizzo had a strong season and seems likely to opt out of his deal, especially with the new shift ban set to help him out going forward. As mentioned earlier, it’s possible he receives and accepts a qualifying offer, which will be determined shortly after the offseason begins. Second base should be taken by Gleyber Torres, who bounced back at the plate after a rough 2021 where he lost the shortstop job for good. Given his escalating arbitration salary, it’s possible the Yankees consider trading him for help elsewhere (they reportedly discussed him with the Marlins in talks surrounding Pablo Lopez this summer) and then use one of their shortstop candidates at the keystone.

Josh Donaldson was solid in the field but saw his wRC+ drop to 97, his first time being below 117 since 2012. His strikeout rate also jumped up to 27.1%, easily the worst of his career, outside of a cup of coffee way back in 2010. He’s about to turn 37 and the club will have to wonder if they need to cut bait before he potentially declines even further. Due $27MM next year (including a buyout on a 2024 option), he certainly won’t have any trade appeal. The Yankees will have to determine whether it’s worthwhile to eat the majority of his contract to move him or bring him back and hope for stronger results.

Despite an injury-marred finish, it was a solid season for DJ LeMahieu. He could potentially replace Rizzo at first base but could also man the hot corner if the Yanks find a way to move Donaldson. Then again, since he’ll turn 35 next year, perhaps it would be wise to keep him in the utility role so that he doesn’t have to be counted on for everyday work. As 2022 showed, the Yanks can win games with a rotation of Rizzo, Torres, IKF and Donaldson with LeMahieu getting work all over. In 2023, the contributions of Cabrera, Peraza and Volpe should grow, which will help. It wouldn’t be insane to keep the group together, but they could also look to other options. The first base market features plenty of solid veterans like Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Trey Mancini and Brandon Belt. The third base market is mostly composed of utility types like Jace Peterson and Aledmys Diaz.

Behind the plate, it’s likely the Yankees feel content with what they have. They decided to move on from the Gary Sanchez era and acquired a glove-first option in Jose Trevino. The bet seems to have paid off, at least in terms of defensive work. Trevino posted 21 Defensive Runs Saved, earned a 19.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric and was the Fielding Bible award winner behind the plate. Both of those numbers were the highest in all of baseball, allowing Trevino to be worth 3.7 fWAR despite hitting around league average for a catcher. Kyle Higashioka wasn’t quite as strong as Trevino but was still above-average on defense. For next year, they could target a bat-first catcher like Willson Contreras, or someone like Sean Murphy, who is good with the bat and the glove. But it doesn’t seem like that should be their highest priority since Trevino and Higashioka are both solid and set for modest arbitration salaries.

Turning to the rotation, the starting staff could be losing a valuable contributor in Jameson Taillon, but it should still be in good shape. Gerrit Cole led the majors in strikeouts again and will be back for more. Severino bounced back from three mostly lost seasons to have a fairly healthy campaign in 2022. He spent some time on the IL but still got over 100 innings after only pitching 18 total frames over 2019-2021. He’ll have his option picked up and will be around next year. Nestor Cortes Jr. will look to build on an excellent breakout campaign. Frankie Montas dealt with shoulder issues after being acquired from the A’s but will hopefully be healthy and back to his old self. They also have Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt as decent options for the back end. They’ll haver to decide whether to make Taillon a qualifying offer and, if they either opt against it or he declines, if they want to try to bring him back on a multi-year deal.

In the bullpen, the Yanks will see a couple of notable veterans moving on, as both Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton are slated for free agency. Also, Chapman and the team seemed to have a falling out after he skipped a team workout that occurred as the Yankees were waiting to see who they would face in the ALDS, and it seems highly unlikely he’ll be back. A Britton return is possible, but he’s no sure solution after two injury-plagued seasons. Miguel Castro and Chad Green are also heading to the open market, though Green is likely to miss at least part of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. The bullpen will also be without deadline acquisition Scott Effross, who required TJS in October.

With those subtractions, the remaining relievers include Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Wandy Peralta, Lou Trivino, Ron Marinaccio and others. There are certainly some solid arms in there, but there’s also room for some improvements. Holmes seemed to have the closer’s job on lock before scuffling midseason but then finishing strong. The top of the relief market will be Edwin Diaz, but there will be plenty of other available hurlers who could make sense, including Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Brad Hand, Chris Martin or Rafael Montero.

As for who’s running the ship, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt there. Cashman is in the final few months of his contract but that doesn’t appear to be an issue. The last time this happened was 2017 and a new contract wasn’t hammered out until December of that year. It seems he’ll eventually get the paperwork sorted to stick around; Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested that’s the likeliest outcome earlier this week. Manager Aaron Boone is under contract for 2024 with a club option for 2025. Some fans have called for his head after the disappointing playoff performance of the club, but Boone recently got a vote of confidence from owner Hal Steinbrenner.

All in all, there are many questions facing the Yankees this winter. Will they trade any of Donaldson, Hicks or IKF? How much do they spend on the bullpen, and do they get a proven closer? Is Rizzo back or do they need to address first base? But those all seem like trivial matters when compared to the massive question at the center of everything. Will Aaron Judge return to the only organization he’s ever known, or will he swap out the pinstripes for something new? It’s the biggest question of the offseason — not just for the Yankees, but for the entire league.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Yankees-centric chat on 11-4-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

By | at

Earlier today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes outlined what each team would have to surrender as compensation if it signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Now, let’s take a look at what each team would receive in return if one of their free agents turned down a QO and signed with another club.  (As a reminder, players can’t be issued a qualifying offer more than once during their careers, and this year’s QO is set for $19.65MM.)

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft.  That means a pick that could fall within the top 30, since the Mets’ and Dodgers’ first selections dropped out of the first round because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (roughly 75th-80th overall).

This winter’s free agent class doesn’t consist of many players who are plausible QO candidates from any of these team, except for possibly Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger.  If Seattle did issue Haniger a qualifying offer, however, the compensation issue might still be a moot point since there is a chance Haniger might just accept the offer (after an injury-shortened season) and remain with the M’s.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).

Dansby Swanson (Braves), Willson Contreras (Cubs), and Carlos Rodon (Giants) will all surely receive qualifying offers.  Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado would’ve also been an obvious pick, except he chose to avoid free agency altogether in deciding to not opt out of his contract.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.  That roughly works out to around the 140th overall pick in the draft, so it’s a pretty noteworthy drop from the 75-80 range from the previous grouping.

The penalty is more significant in this particular offseason, given how many of these teams have very prominent free agents that will surely receive qualifying offers.  The Yankees have Aaron Judge, the Dodgers have Trea Turner and maybe Tyler Anderson, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts and probably Nathan Eovaldi, and the Mets have a full quartet — Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo.

Exceeding the tax line can be seen as the cost of doing business, given how five of the six payors made the playoffs and the Phillies are competing for the World Series.  For the Red Sox, however, crossing the CBT threshold is doubly painful, as Boston didn’t even post a winning record in 2022.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By | at

As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft.  As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation.  The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade.  The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.

The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer.  A dozen others could easily join them.

If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.

All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees

By | at

Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results

This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.

2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.

3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.

MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

By | at

Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

White Sox Have Interviewed Carlos Mendoza

By | at

8:10pm: Mendoza actually interviewed with the White Sox nearly two weeks ago, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports (via Twitter). He has not had a second interview, although there’s no indication to this point that he’s squarely out of the running.

9:27am: The White Sox have gotten permission to interview Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza in their managerial search, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). It isn’t clear whether Mendoza has already sat down with Chicago brass or is planning to over the coming days, but he marks a new entrant into the mix.

Mendoza, 42, has spent more than a decade in the coaching ranks. A Venezuela native, he began his career as a player in the Giants system back in 1997. He played professionally for 12 years in the San Francisco and Yankees organizations, briefly topping out at Triple-A. After the 2009 campaign, he transitioned into coaching in the New York farm system. He spent the 2011-12 seasons managing at the lower levels of the organization, and he worked his way onto the MLB coaching staff by 2018.

Over the past five seasons, Mendoza has worked on manager Aaron Boone’s staff. He broke in as an infield instructor and was bumped up to bench coach going into the 2020 campaign. A year later, he got looks from the Tigers and Red Sox in their managerial searches. Those respective positions ultimately went to A.J. Hinch and Alex Cora, but Mendoza was reportedly among the final five under consideration for the Boston job.

The White Sox are the only team without a manager currently in place. Tony La Russa held the position for the past two years, but he stepped away from the team late in the season due to health concerns and subsequently announced he wouldn’t return to the role in 2023.

Thus far, Chicago is known to have interviewed bench coach Miguel Cairo (who served as interim manager for the stretch run while La Russa was out), Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, Astros bench coach Joe Espada and former Chicago bench boss Ozzie Guillén. They’ve also been tied to Braves third base coach Ron Washington, although it isn’t known if the sides officially sat down at any point.

It seems they’ve started to narrow down their list of potential candidates. Over the weekend, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reported that Espada was no longer in consideration. Heyman adds that Washington and Guillén are also unlikely to land the position at this point.

Benintendi, Taillon Open To Yankees Return; Team Unlikely To Pursue Free Agent Shortstops

By | at

The Yankees are faced with plenty of questions heading into the off-season, following their ALCS sweep at the hands of the Astros. The team has already said they’re planning to keep Aaron Boone as manager next season, but the makeup of the roster Boone oversees could see some significant change. The free agency of outfielder superstar Aaron Judge will justifiably dominate the headlines over the coming months, but there’s a plenty of other storylines in the Bronx that’ll be interesting to follow.

The Yankees have eleven pending free agents, although it seems likely they’ll pick up Luis Severino’s $15MM team option and drop that number to ten. Among them are Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi. Both have indicated they’re open to a return to the Yankees, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. That they’ve said that is not a great surprise, as most pending free agents say they’re open or willing to discussing a return to their previous team, but it is interesting to consider in the case of Benintendi and Taillon as there’s a feasible pathway to the Yankees re-signing both.

Taillon was acquired from the Pirates prior to the 2021 season for minor leaguers Roansy Contreras, Maikol Escotto, Miguel Yajure and Canaan Smith-Njigba. Taillon is no stranger to injuries, he’s had Tommy John surgery twice as well as a hernia surgery back in 2015. He’s also a cancer survivor, having undergone testicular cancer surgery in 2017. His second Tommy John caused him to miss the 2020 season, and the Yankees managed his workload accordingly in 2021, so while he made 29 starts he only threw 144 1/3 innings. He ramped up in 2022 though, and tossed 177 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball. Taillon’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, and he punched out roughly a fifth of batters this season, but he displayed an excellent control, walking batters just 4.4% of the time. He is a little susceptible to the long ball, but on the whole Taillon is a reliable mid-rotation arm that could help a lot of teams moving forward.

One of those teams could be the Yankees. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes will be back at the top of the rotation, while a returning Luis Severino should round out the first three spots. After that, there’s a few question marks. Domingo German threw 72 1/3 innings of  3.61 ERA ball, although his FIP sat at 4.44 and his fastball velocity declined slightly in 2022. Mid-season trade acquisition from Oakland Frankie Montas struggled in eight starts before going on the IL for the rest of the regular season, he returned in the playoffs but only threw one inning. Montas has a sound track record as a mid-rotation arm, but pitched to a 6.35 ERA in New York. He experienced a sharp decline in strikeouts, just 17.8% with the Yankees down 8% from the first half of the season in Oakland, while his walk rate jumped slightly. The Yankees could conceivably turn to both German and Montas to round out their rotation but given the question marks over both, the reliability of Taillon to solidify the backend of the rotation could hold plenty of appeal to Brian Cashman’s front office.

Benintendi was brought over from the Royals at the deadline, with the Yankees sending minor leaguers Chandler Champlain, T.J. Sikkema and Beck Way the other way. The 28-year-old was in the conversation for the batting title in Kansas City, slashing .320/387/.398. He got off to a slow start (two hits in his first 25 ABs) but found his groove eventually and hit .303 for the rest of the campaign. He missed almost all of September, however, with a broken hamate bone and failed to return for the playoffs. The Yankees acquired Benintendi as a lefty-hitting contact bat to balance out their slugger-heavy lineup, as well as offer strong defense in left. When fit, he provided exactly that and should have no shortage of multi-year offers in free agency.

Of course, the top priority in the outfield for the Yankees is Aaron Judge, but the team would do well to bring back Benintendi in left. The team used ten different players in left in 2022, with none playing in more than 55 games there. Aaron Hicks got the bulk of the playing time, but put up underwhelming numbers and at 33 is showing signs of decline. The team turned to rookie Oswaldo Cabrera down the stretch, and got solid results despite the fact he’d come up through the minor leagues as an infielder. He hit .247/.312/.429 in 44 games and impressed defensively. Depending on other moves, the team may prefer to keep Cabrera as a utility-man on the bench and bring back Benintendi as the team’s everyday left-fielder.

Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are indicating they won’t be shopping for a top shortstop this winter. That’s no surprise, as the club opted to trade for Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead of go after Carlos Correa and Corey Seager last winter. While Kiner-Falefa drew the ire of the fanbase, that move was made with a view to eventually having one of the Yankees’ top prospects Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe take over long-term. Peraza impressed in a handful of appearances in September, and made the playoff roster, and it seems likely the Yankees’ 2023 opening day shortstop will come from that trio.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top