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2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Juan Soto Discusses Failed Extension With Nationals, Trade To Padres

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The Padres have remade their reputation in recent years, changing from a small market team to one of the heavy hitters that is seemingly in on every notable free agent and trade candidate. That included nabbing Juan Soto last year, arguably the highest profile deadline deal in recent baseball history. Players with that much talent, youth and years of control don’t usually become available, which made it a headline-grabbing frenzy when it actually did happen.

Soto recently spoke with Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated and was quite candid about how he actually didn’t enjoy the process as much as he expected. The firestorm kicked off when it was reported in mid-July that Soto had rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals, which is what led to him being available in trades. It seems the outfielder wasn’t happy that those extension talks got leaked. “I wanted to do it with the Nationals, but they just made it public,” he says. “I didn’t like that at all. I hated it. I told them we weren’t speaking anymore, because they just threw everything out there.”

Although a trade seemed inevitable at that time and Soto prepared himself for it, he admitted that it hurt him more than he expected when it finally became real. Nelson Cruz, then his teammate in Washington and now again in San Diego, had to console a tearful Soto and remind him he was going to a better situation. He says that his anxiety finally abated when he returned to Washington and got a standing ovation in Nationals Park. “I really felt relieved,” he says. “I could leave that in the past and focus on Cali.” The Friars ultimately qualified for the postseason, their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers before falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Another part of the Padres’ aggressiveness has been extending their incumbent players, with Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove all getting notable deals recently. It’s fair to assume they’d like to do the same with Soto, though we might not hear much about it, given his preferences. “If [the Padres can keep negotiations private], I can do it any time. I have no problem with it,” he says.

The news of him leaving nearly half a billion dollars on the table also caused a lot of stress in his inner circle, with Soto saying it put “all the fans, all the Dominicans, even my family against me.” It seemingly crept into the locker room as well. “A lot of teammates were like, ‘We respect your thinking, but that’s a lot of money,’” he says. “I’m like, ‘Guys, I’m trying to do what’s best for me and what’s best for my family.’ And you gotta go out there and perform. And you try to perform for guys that doubt you. And that’s one of the things I hated.”

The concern from those family members and teammates is presumably that Soto is taking a risk by leaving that kind of money on the table. There’s always a risk in any athlete turning down significant money, as an unexpected injury could then diminish their earning power. But Soto still has plenty of things working in his favor to get a huge payday. Since he rocketed to the majors at such a young age, he’s still only 24, younger than many top prospects who have yet to even debut. He’s slated for free agency after 2024, when he will have just turned 26 years old. This past offseason saw superstar players like Aaron Judge and Trea Turner get to $300MM and beyond, even though they were going into their age-31 and age-30 seasons, respectively. Soto is already getting $23MM this year and will get another raise via arbitration for 2024 before hitting the open market at an exceptionally young age. It’s seems well within the realm of possibility that he ends up getting more than what he walked away from.

Some Padre fans have expressed concern that Soto isn’t living up to the hype so far, as his production was a bit diminished after the trade and he’s off to a slow start here in 2023. However, the underlying numbers suggest he’s due for some positive regression. He still walked more than he struck out after coming to San Diego and the same is true again here this year. His Statcast page is still bright red, meaning there’s no reason to suspect his .185 batting average on balls in play so far this year will stay more than 100 points below his career BABIP of .306. Even with that terrible luck so far, his .175/.366/.365 batting line amounts to an above-average 106 wRC+. Once the baseball gods start smiling on him again, he should move closer to his career batting line of .283/.422/.521 and 152 wRC+.

Despite all the attention and the doubters, Soto maintains he’s in a good place. “I feel great right now,” he tells Apstein. “Forget about all this stuff. Now I’m focused on the San Diego Padres.” The club is out to a slow start, currently at 8-11, but once Soto’s fortunes change for the better, that should apply to the club as well.

Turning to other parts of the roster, the club will also be getting a boost to its rotation soon as Joe Musgrove is set to make his season debut on Saturday, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The righty suffered a fractured toe in a freak weight room accident back in February and has been working his way back to health since. He’s coming off arguably his best season yet, as he posted a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts last year, as well as a 2.89 ERA in three postseason starts. The club has been employing a six-man rotation recently and will have to decide who gets bumped to make room for Musgrove. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are locks to stick, with one of Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers, Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez in line for a move to the bullpen or the farm. Weathers is the only one of that group that can be optioned to the minors, though he also has a 2.81 ERA in the early going while Martinez and Wacha are at 5.60 and 6.06, respectively.

The bullpen could also be in line for a reinforcement in the near future, as lefty Drew Pomeranz started a rehab assignment last night. He tossed one inning for the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm, getting a flyout, a groundout and a strikeout. Signed to a four-year, $34MM deal going into 2020, he posted a 1.45 ERA in the first year of the deal and a 1.75 in the second, striking out more than a third of batters faced in that time. Unfortunately, he required flexor tendon surgery in August of 2021 and hasn’t been on a big league mound since. Starting a rehab assignment now doesn’t necessarily mean a return is imminent, as he started a similar rehab stint in August of last year but renewed soreness shut him down. A full offseason didn’t even get him to 100%, as he dealt with inflammation during Spring Training and is only now properly ramping up. It’s hard to know what to expect from him at this point, but getting anywhere close to his excellent results from a few years ago would be most welcome.

And turning quickly to ownership, the club’s recent change in organizational attitude coincided with Peter Seidler purchasing a majority stake in the club in late 2020. It seems he plans on sticking around for a long time while continuing to run out a competitive roster. “There will never be another fire sale in San Diego, and I expect my family to own the franchise for another 50, 75 years,” he said at an event yesterday, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “Hopefully go for more, I’ll talk from the grave.”

Padres Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Padres announced a series of roster moves ahead of this afternoon’s game against the Brewers, optioning right-hander Domingo Tapia and utiltyman Brandon Dixon to Triple-A while recalling catcher Brett Sullivan and right-hander Reiss Knehr. The moves come on the heels of a recent injury to catcher Luis Campusano, who jammed his thumb catching a bullpen session. According to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, x-rays on Campusano’s thumb came back negative, but he will still be sidelined due to considerable swelling. It appears that, at least for now, Campusano will avoid a stint on the injured list, with the Padres instead opting for a three catcher roster while the 24 year-old is sidelined.

Tapia, 31, made his debut in 2020 with Boston and posted strong numbers from 2020-2021, sporting a 2.61 ERA and 3.62 FIP across 38 innings split between the Red Sox, Mariners, and Royals. He struggled badly in 17 innings with Oakland last year, however, posting a 8.47 ERA and 5.11 FIP. While those numbers are somewhat inflated by his .387 BABIP and unfortunate 62.2% strand rate, Tapia’s struggles were somewhat deserved, as well, as he actually walked more batters (14) than he struck out (12) with the A’s. Control problems have been an issue for Tapia even outside of Oakland, however, has he sports a career 13.1% walk rate and has never posted a walk rate lower than 10% in a season.

With Tapia headed to Triple-A, Knehr is set to join the Padres bullpen for the first time this season. The 26 year-old righty has pitched for the Padres in the big leagues in each of the past two seasons, with a 4.64 ERA in 42 2/3 innings over that time. Knehr struggles with control as well, with walk rates consistently over 10% in both the major leagues and Triple-A. Still, he’ll provide a fresh arm for the Padres bullpen, which has recently been taxed thanks to short starts from the club’s six-man rotation.

Dixon, meanwhile, heads to Triple-A to make room for a third catcher on the roster. The 31-year old struggled in his limited playing time with the club this season, recording just one hit and no walks while striking out eight times in his ten plate appearances with the club. Still, he figures to provide depth in the minors for the Padres, particularly given his versatility. Dixon has played all three outfield spots as well as first, second, and third base in the majors throughout his career.

Sullivan, 29, has yet to make his major league debut to this point in his career. A 17th round draft pick by the Rays in the 2015 draft, Sullivan signed with the Brewers on a major league deal during the 2021-22 offseason but was traded to the Padres in the deal that sent Victor Caratini to Milwaukee before appearing in a game for the organization. Sullivan has served as catching depth in the upper minors for the Padres ever since, and now figures to get his shot in the big leagues while Campusano is on the mend. A career .273/.321/.430 hitter in the minor leagues, Sullivan has experience in the outfield corners and at third base in addition to behind the plate.

Padres Notes: Rotation, Wacha, Engel

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Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is expected to make his final rehab start today for the organization’s Single-A affiliate, as noted by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. That would put Musgrove on track to return to the Padres sometime later this week, a welcome development for a club that has seen its current six-man rotation set-up lead to an overly taxed bullpen.

With only seven relievers on the roster, the club needs its starters to be able to go deeper into games and cover more innings, but that hasn’t been the case early in the season. San Diego starters have failed to complete six innings in nine of the club’s 16 games this season, with just three starts lasting into the seventh inning. The return of Musgrove, who pitched at least six innings in 22 of his 30 regular season starts last season, should help relieve some of the load off the bullpen, but the question remains as to who Musgrove will replace in the rotation.

Ken Rosenthal suggested on FOX Sports yesterday that right-hander Nick Martinez could head to the bullpen as the odd man out, while Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune suggested that it could be young left-hander Ryan Weathers who is either optioned to Triple-A or pushed to the bullpen in order to make room for Musgrove, though Sanders notes that the club’s schedule, which includes two off-days in the final week of April and five throughout the month of May, could make the current six-man rotation setup untenable in the longer term and force the club to look at moving Martinez or righty Seth Lugo to the bullpen.

Weathers, 23, struggled to a 5.49 ERA with a 5.42 FIP the past two seasons, with all of that work except for a single 3 2/3 inning spot start coming during the 2021 campaign. He’s done well so far in 2023, posting an strong 2.70 ERA in two starts (10 innings) so far this season, though he’s struck out just five batters so far and failed to record an out in the sixth inning. By contrast, Martinez has struggled in terms of run prevention, with a 5.60 ERA across three starts, but has been able to go deeper into games, failing to make it out of the fifth inning just once while recording six and seven innings in his other two appearances.

More from San Diego…

  • As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Padres right-hander Michael Wacha entered the offseason hoping to return to the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings in 2022. Cotillo notes that the Red Sox never appeared close to re-signing the 31 year-old righty, who eventually signed in San Diego on a complex four-year, $26MM deal with multiple team and player options involved. Wacha noted that Boston expressed interest in retaining him for the 2023 season, but ultimately did not get into specifics of his negotations with the club, saying that “you might have to ask [Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom] about that one.” That being said, Wacha did note the importance of San Diego’s willingness to offer a multi-year deal held in his ultimate decision to sign with the club.
  • As noted by Sanders, outfielder Adam Engel, who’s been sidelined to this point in the season with a hamstring injury. began a rehab assignment in Triple-A yesterday. With David Dahl having recently joined Engel on the injured list, the club’s outfield depth has been tested, with the likes of Rougned Odor and Brandon Dixon making recent starts in the outfield alongside Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Engel’s impending return should provide some much-needed support to the Padres outfield, as should Fernando Tatis Jr., who is set to return from his suspension later this week.

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

Padres Notes: Catcher, Musgrove, Snell

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Padres catcher Austin Nola has struggled through a slow start to the season, perhaps still feeling the effects of a broken nose suffered when he was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer fastball late in spring training. The 33-year-old is out to just a 3-for-29 start, and manager Bob Melvin conceded after last night’s game that the Padres “might need to do things a little differently” with regard to their catching setup (link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). As Melvin points out, Nola enjoyed a strong spring before that unfortunate plunking; in 30 plate appearances he slashed .333/.487/.467.

Presumably, “differently” entails allotting more time to longtime top catching prospect Luis Campusano. The 24-year-old hasn’t exactly set the world on fire himself in this season’s small sample, going 4-for-16 with a double and five punchouts in 17 plate appearances. In parts of four seasons in the Majors, Campusano has received just 109 plate appearances and posted a .198/.239/.277 batting line. However, he’s also posted excellent batted-ball metrics (90.9 mph average exit velocity, 48.6% hard-hit rate) and owns a .296/.364/.511 batting line in 684 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never been given a legitimate run as the team’s primary catcher.

To this point, Acee notes, Campusano has been the catcher for righty Michael Wacha and lefty Ryan Weathers, with Nola lining up behind the dish to catch Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Blake Snell. Whether the Friars will continue to deploy their catchers based on specific pitcher pairings remains to be determined, but Melvin’s comments suggest that Campusano is likely in for a larger workload to an extent.

As far as the rotation is concerned, the Padres have had to patch things together a bit with Joe Musgrove opening the season on the injured list due to a broken toe he suffered in the weight room during spring training. He’s already made one rehab start, but Musgrove landed awkwardly on his shoulder while making a play in the field during that start and had his second rehab start pushed back as a result. The right-hander had a cortisone injection in that shoulder earlier this week, and he’ll be evaluated again today, Melvin said earlier in the week (link via FriarWire’s Bill Center).

If things go well today, Musgrove could make a second rehab start as soon as tomorrow. Given that he already tossed 4 1/3 innings in his first rehab outing, Musgrove could plausibly be ready for activation following a second rehab appearance, although the team has not yet indicated whether the plan is for him to make two or three rehab starts. Even if Musgrove makes another pair of rehab appearances, he could still be in line for his season debut in the final week of April, assuming all goes well from a health vantage point.

Weathers and Lugo have exceeded expectations in joining the starting staff, but the Padres are surely eager to get Musgrove back nonetheless. Musgrove would’ve likely been in line to serve as San Diego’s Opening Day starter, but that title wound up going to lefty Blake Snell, who’s struggled through his first three starts of a contract season.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic spoke with Snell about those struggles, noting that the lefty began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual in hopes of shaking off some of his increasingly characteristic early-season struggles. Snell tells Lin that he’s made a concerted effort to throw more fastballs in an effort to “get out of my own way” and to remind him of the quality of his secondary pitches. “My curveball and slider are really good because of how good the fastball is,” says Snell.

Thus far, it hasn’t worked out in Snell’s favor. He’s lasted just 13 total innings across three starts, pitching to a 6.92 ERA while walking 10 of is 66 opponents (15.2%). Command and pitch efficiency have been issues for Snell throughout his career, which helps to explain his penchant for relatively short starts. (Snell has averaged just 5.09 innings per start in his career.)

Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner with the Rays, has stumbled out of the gate in each of the past two seasons before ultimately righting the ship and dominating late in the year. In 2021, he pitched to a 5.44 ERA with a 14.3% walk rate in 19 starts through late July before rebounding with 44 1/3 innings of 1.83 ERA ball and an 8.4% walk rate over his final seven starts (44 1/3 innings). His 2022 season played out similarly: a 5.60 ERA and 12.2% walk rate through late June, followed by a 2.53 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in his final 17 starts.

Snell’s raw abilities are unquestionable. He’s a former Cy Young winner who can miss bats at an elite rate and, when he’s at his best, look like one of the game’s best pitchers. His ability to reach those peak levels with any degree of consistency, however, are far more questionable. Nonetheless, that repeatedly demonstrated ability to overwhelm opposing lineups — however inconsistent it may be — is what landed him in the No. 10 spot on yesterday’s edition of MLBTR’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings.

If he’s able to uncage his dominant form earlier than usual, Snell has the potential to be one of the most in-demand arms on next offseason’s market. His all-too-familiar peaks and valleys may give teams trepidation even he can round into form sooner than later, but left-handers who throw 96 mph and punch out nearly 30% of their opponents don’t grow on trees. And, other clubs will surely have their own ideas about how to get Snell to tap into that No. 1 starter upside with more regularity.

Xander Bogaerts Discusses Free Agency

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There were few bigger stories of last offseason than Xander Bogaerts’ free agency. A career-long member of the Red Sox, he opted out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal with Boston to test the open market. That came six months after Spring Training extension talks had gone nowhere, setting the stage for Bogaerts to join the Padres on a stunning 11-year, $280MM contract at the Winter Meetings.

Bogaerts recently addressed the end of his time in Boston with Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He expressed disappointment with the Red Sox’s initial extension proposal last spring. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported at the time that Boston had offered four years and $90MM — one year and $30MM in new money — for Bogaerts to preemptively forego his opt-out chance. It was a surprisingly light offer that turned out to be well below Bogaerts’ open market value, one with which the All-Star shortstop wasn’t satisfied.

“The one in spring training was a little tough. I think it’s well-documented what the offer was,” Bogaerts told Cotillo. “That was a tough pill to swallow at that time because you’re hearing about extension talks so you’re looking forward to seeing what they’re thinking and what they’re offering. That was a tough one.”

The sides halted talks during the season but reengaged at the end of the year. Boston brass maintained at the outset of the offseason that keeping Bogaerts was their top priority. They indeed moved quite a bit from their extension offer, reportedly putting forth a proposal in the six-year, $160MM range during the winter. That was at least in the realm of general expectations at the start of the offseason — MLBTR predicted Bogaerts at seven years and $189MM at the start of the winter — but came up well shy of San Diego’s winning bid. Free agent prices for star talent exploded last winter and it seemed clear by the Winter Meetings that Bogaerts would surpass $200MM, though few would’ve foreseen a team nearing $300MM.

“Way off,” Bogaerts said of Boston’s final offer. “They felt the way they felt. They did what they did. I have no bad feelings for them. I’ve seen multiple great players come through that organization who I’ve played with and they’re not there anymore. Some guys went from pretty untradeable to tradeable. That was eye-opening. It makes you see things differently, for sure.”

It indeed seems clear the Red Sox weren’t as bullish on Bogaerts’ long-term projection as the Padres were. Boston had an in-house replacement to step in at shortstop after signing Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee two offseasons ago. Those plans were scuttled, at least early in 2023, when it was revealed Story required an internal brace procedure to address a ligament issue in his throwing elbow. That pushed Enrique Hernández in from center field to man shortstop, though Adam Duvall’s wrist fracture could force Hernández back into center field more frequently.

Boston made another huge investment in the left side of the infield later in the winter. The Sox agreed to a $313.5MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers in January. Devers is four years younger than Bogaerts and has been an even better hitter than the star shortstop. It’s not hard to see why the Boston front office considered Devers the safer long-term investment, even as Bogaerts plays the more demanding position and assuaged some concern about his glove with solid defensive marks last year.

Injury Notes: McKenzie, Hernandez, Suarez

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Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie was shut down two weeks ago with a strain of the teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder. The club provided an update to reporters today, including Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal, relaying that McKenzie would start a throwing program this week. His ultimate return will depend on how that throwing program goes.

McKenzie had a tremendous breakout season last year, posting a 2.96 ERA over 191 1/3 innings, striking out 25.6% of opponents while walking just 5.9%. He also made two postseason starts for the Guards last year with a 3.27 ERA over 11 innings. He’ll be looking to build on that strong campaign but will have to get healthy first. The two-week shutdown period appears to have helped alleviate the injury, allowing him to start building towards a return.

Despite the recent injury, McKenzie was listed as one of several players the Guardians were trying to sign to extensions. In the end, they got a deal done with Andrés Giménez and Trevor Stephan but not McKenzie. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time after this season and is slated for free agency after 2026. Hunter Gaddis took over McKenzie’s rotation spot in the wake of the injury, with mixed results so far. He allowed four earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Mariners in his first outing, but then tossed six shutout innings against the A’s in his second turn.

Some other injury situations from around the majors…

  • Royals right-hander Carlos Hernández departed last night’s game accompanied by the trainer, as relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com, who noted that the issue appeared to be his hamstring. The hard-throwing Hernandez has averaged around 97 mph in his career thus far but has mixed results to show for it. He had a 3.68 ERA in 2021 but that number jumped to 7.39 last year. The latter figure was likely affected by some bad luck, given his .339 batting average on balls in play and 59.4% strand rate. He has started well here in 2023 with a 2.45 ERA in a small sample of 3 2/3 innings. The status of his health is still unclear at the moment, with updates surely to be revealed in the coming days.
  • Padres right-hander Robert Suarez began the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and doesn’t appear close to a return. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Suarez has had his progression slowed because he “felt something” while playing catch recently. It’s not certain what the issue is or how long Suarez will be delayed, but it’s not an ideal start to his new contract. After many years in Japan, Suarez played for the Padres last year and posted a 2.27 ERA while striking out 31.9% of batters faced. He opted out of his contract but re-signed with the Friars on an aggressive five-year, $46MM pact. With Suarez out of action, the club has been giving its high-leverage work to pitchers like Josh Hader, Luis Garcia and Steven Wilson.

West Notes: Musgrove, Rodriguez, Phillips, Sborz

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Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters today (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that right-hander Joe Musgrove “tweaked” his shoulder in his most recent rehab start, and could have his next rehab start pushed back by a day or two as a consequence of this. Musgrove opened the season on the injured list due to a fractured toe he suffered during Spring Training. In Musgrove’s absence, the club has opted for a six-man rotation with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell being followed by Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, and Ryan Weathers.

An All Star in 2022, Musgrove has blossomed into a top of the rotation arm since being traded to the Padres ahead of the 2021 season. Over the past two campaigns, Musgrove has posted a 3.06 ERA with a 3.64 FIP while notching 387 strikeouts in 362 1/3 innings of work. Those numbers put him among the more durable starters in the game today in addition to his quality run prevention numbers and above-average strikeout rate. 2023 is the first year of Musgrove’s five-year, $100MM extension that he signed with the club last summer.

More from around MLB’s western divisions…

  • Per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, Angels manager Phil Nevin told reporters today that right-hander Chris Rodriguez suffered a setback in his rehab from shoulder surgery. While Rodriguez is still throwing, but he is stepping away from facing live hitters as the Angels plan to take his rehab process slowly. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since he made his major league debut in 2021, impressing with a 3.64 ERA and 3.14 FIP in 29 2/3 innings of work. When healthy, Rodriguez figures to be in the mix alongside Griffin Canning and Tucker Davidson for a swing role on the major league pitching staff.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided some clarity on the club’s preferred bullpen usage yesterday, telling reporters (including Jack Harris of the LA Times) that right-hander Evan Phillips is his preference to hand the ball to in the ninth inning if everyone’s available. That being said, Roberts stopped short of properly anointing Phillips the closer, leaving the door open for Phillips to be used in other roles in certain situations. Teams have moved away from having a designated closer in recent seasons, preferring to try and maximize performance by playing matchups, though given Phillips’s 1.41 ERA in 76 1/3 innings since joining the Dodgers in 2021, it’s no surprise he’s Roberts’s preference for save situations over other back-end options like Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia.
  • The Rangers have announced that right-hander Josh Sborz has started a rehab assignment in Triple-A as he looks to return from a sprained ankle that sent him to the injured list to open the season. Sborz struggled badly in 2022 while dealing with elbow issues throughout the season, posting a 6.45 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work, though his 32% strikeout rate did leave reason for optimism headed into the season. Once healthy, Sborz could factor into the Texas bullpen in a middle relief role currently held by the likes of Ian Kennedy and Taylor Hearn.

Padres Place David Dahl On 10-Day Injured List

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The Padres placed outfielder David Dahl on the 10-day injured list due to a right quad strain, with a retroactive placement date of April 7.  Brandon Dixon was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

San Diego signed Dahl to a minor league deal during the offseason, and he broke camp with the team and appeared in four games for the Padres before this latest injury setback.  Manager Bob Melvin said yesterday that Dahl was hurt while running sprints in the outfield prior to Saturday’s game, and that an IL stint seemed possible.

Dahl is unfortunately no stranger to the injured list, as several health problems (including a lacerated spleen, a stress fracture in his rib, and various back and shoulder issues) have hampered his career.  It seemed like he’d finally broken through with an All-Star season with the Rockies in 2019, but Dahl has hit only .199/.236/.303 over 328 Major League plate appearances since the start of the 2020 campaign.  Dahl didn’t see any big league action in 2022, spending the year at the Triple-A affiliates of the Nationals and Brewers.

Dixon’s multi-position versatility will help the Padres address their depth needs in the outfield, but the club is definitely not in an ideal place with both Dahl and Adam Engel on the IL.  Juan Soto and Trent Grisham are everyday starters, of course, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will soon be joining the mix once his PED suspension is up, but until then, San Diego has used backup Jose Azocar, Dahl, and converted infielder Rougned Odor in right field.  Melvin suggested that Nelson Cruz might be an option for some right field work, even though Cruz hasn’t played the outfield since 2018.

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