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Trade Candidate: J.D. Davis

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After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.

Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.

As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”

Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.

Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.

Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.

Who’s Blocking Brennen Davis?

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In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.

After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.

As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.

Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.

Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.

Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.

Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.

2021-22 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is complete.  We broke down what all 30 teams might have in store for their winter moves, so be sure to check in with this post to find your favorite team’s entry is online.  The completed entries….

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

AL Central

AL West

This Date In Transaction History: Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli

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On this date in 2003, the Red Sox made one of the best free-agent signings of all time. The story of David Ortiz’s Red Sox career is well-known and often recounted, however. So let’s fast-forward to this date eight years ago when the Red Sox added another pretty good first baseman/designated hitter: Mike Napoli put pen to paper and officially signed a one-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed. The deal was notable because the two sides had previously agreed to a three-year, $39MM contract that fell apart because of concern over the health of Napoli’s hip.

After the failed physical, Napoli briefly flirted with a return to the Texas Rangers, with whom he’d spent the previous two seasons. Napoli had been a significant trade acquisition for the Rangers following the 2010 season, making his one and only All-Star team while helping Texas repeat as American League champions. Though Texas would fall for the second consecutive season in the World Series, Napoli played lights out, slashing .350/.464/.700 in 28 plate appearances with two home runs and 10 runs driven in.

Regardless, the Red Sox had more playing time to offer the former catcher, and he became Boston’s new first basemen with a deal guaranteeing $5MM while still providing a ceiling of $13MM based on incentives. The 31-year-old would take home the full boat, cashing in with 139 games played, 578 plate appearances, and 3.7 rWAR by way of a .259/.360/.482 batting line. He chipped in 23 home runs despite a 32.4 percent strikeout rate.

Napoli was absolutely a contributing factor in the Red Sox turning around a 93-loss team from the season prior, becoming a 97-win juggernaut that rolled past the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win the World Series title. Though Napoli would play in the World Series three times, 2013 was the only time he’d walk away with a ring.

Ultimately, though the hip issue got Napoli’s Boston tenure off to an inauspicious start, the relationship was an unmitigated success, so much so that Napoli re-upped following that 2013 campaign for another two seasons at a $16MM AAV. Ultimately, Napoli earned $45MM over that three-year stretch, well more than the $39MM he would have earned under the original terms of his deal.

These days, Napoli is a Quality Assurance Coach on the staff of one of his former teammates from that 2013 team, David Ross.

Trade Candidate: Nick Ahmed

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This winter’s free-agent shortstop market has long-promised to shake up the league, and it’s lived up to its billing thus far. But we’re only part-way through the transfiguration. The Rangers signed two of the top shortstops available, adding a wrinkle that the other 29 clubs have yet to iron out. If nothing else, two significant dominoes – Carlos Correa and Trevor Story – have yet to fall, so there are even more twists-and-turns when the lockout ends.

For those teams not willing to plunk down six figures for a long-term solution like Correa or Story, however, it would be worth giving Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen a call to see about the availability of veteran Nick Ahmed. Ahmed struggled mightly at the plate in 2021, slashing just .221/.280/.339 over 473 plate appearances, but that’s never been his calling card.

If nothing else, he’s affordable. He’s entering his age-32 season with two years and $18.25MM left on his deal. The contract is affordable, but it could also be a potential obstacle. The money owed is substantial enough that teams may doubt whether he offers enough of an upgrade whatever they have in-house. Any rookie shortstop will offer better value potential because of a rookie minimum contract. Besides, it’s easy to dream on the untapped potential of a young player that you haven’t yet seen fail at the Major League level.

There is still, however, the question of whether the Diamondbacks would be willing to sell a player that’s come into his own with their franchise, becoming a fan favorite in the process. But after a disastrous 110-loss season, it’s hard to consider the Diamondbacks as anything but sellers.

They’ve finished last in the NL West for consecutive seasons and only made the playoffs once in the past decade. What’s more, they’re staring down what might be the most competitive division in baseball as the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are each in pedal-to-the-metal, World-Series-hopeful mode.

As teams look to upgrade their rosters, there are only so many rosters to scour. This time of year, belief is rampant, so finding a trade partner requires either an aligning of team needs, a team looking to cut payroll, or as in the Diamondbacks case, a team in rebuilding mode with an outside shot at contention next season. Whether the Diamondbacks see themselves in that light is unclear, given that they’re just two offseasons removed from signing Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM deal.

Even this winter, they made a win-now-ish move by signing veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. Of course, there are levels of rebuilding, and the Diamondbacks have to field a full roster just like any other team. Signing Melancon could just as easily be the acquisition of a future trade piece as it is a sign that the front office thinks they can win the NL West this season. Teams around the league have definitely called to inquire about the availability of Ketel Marte, but they’ve thus far been rebuffed–another sign that Arizona might be leaning towards a soft bid for a wild card spot.

Ahmed, however, has never been a high-impact player, and the Diamondbacks can almost certainly find another solution, should they decide to move him. He’s never posted higher than a 96 wRC+, and his career mark sits at 74 wRC+. His 2.3 fWAR season in 2019 is the only time he’s topped 2.o fWAR over a full season (though he was on pace to surpass that mark in 2020, had there been a full season).

Frankly, Ahmed is pretty close to being a prototypical second-division starter, and that’s not the type of guy that teams really look to trade for in the offseason. What makes Ahmed appealing, however, is that he does have an elite skill: defense. Certain teams have grown adept at maximizing flawed players with elite skills, and there’s no reason to think that the right organization couldn’t maximize Ahmed’s talents in a similar fashion.

Bottom line: Ahmed is a veteran who should probably transition to a part-time role, but that might be something he’s willing to do if he’s on a contender. The Diamondbacks don’t need a win-now veteran like Ahmed, and they should probably be using that spot to audition young players who have a chance to stick long-term. That’s the calculus for a trade.

So who might be interested in Ahmed? The right team would be a competitive club looking to make the playoffs who has a solution up the middle, but not a surefire All-Star in that spot. Ahmed would be a perfect third middle infielder to compliment a lefty bat or a bat-first option up the middle. Some options:

The Astros could use Ahmed to ease Jeremy Pena into regular playing time. He would essentially be the glove-first version of Aledmys Diaz. They probably have enough pop to slide another glove-first body into the bottom of the lineup, though this probably only works if one of their young centerfielders proves a genuine offensive weapon, as they’re already giving one lineup spot to a glove-only vet in Martin Maldonado.

The Cubs might take a flyer on Ahmed to bolster the young and injury-prone up-the-middle duo of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. Both young infielders are natural second baseman, and both are coming off injury-ravaged seasons. Ahmed would find playing time as Hoerner gets moved around the diamond, and he could serve as insurance should one of the pair end up back in the trainer’s room.

If the Yankees don’t pony up for one of the top free agents, Ahmed would nicely protect the offensive asset that is Gleyber Torres by allowing their young slugger to mostly stay at the keystone. The plan to convert 30-year-old Gio Urshela to a full-time shortstop has some legs after a 24-start tryout in 2021 (-1 DRS, -0.2 UZR), but it would be a lot to expect him to handle the full load. Ahmed would instantly become the best defender in an offensively potent Yankee infield, and they could find ways to maximize his glovework and minimize trips to the dish.

The Phillies really need more offense, but so long as Didi Gregorius is their starting shortstop, there would be a place for Ahmed. After a 68 wRC+ season from Gregorius, the Phils might just as soon improve their infield defense – which also needs work.

Given the stars that have been on the free-agent market this winter, and the stars that might be on the market next year (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts), Ahmed represents a decidedly milquetoast solution to a premier position. But he’s not a solution on his own. He’s a capable veteran who can absolutely help defensively if fit into a bench role on the right club. There’s a team out there that can use Ahmed to help them win games and reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks probably aren’t that team.

This Date In Transactions History: Three-Team Sonny Gray Trade

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On this date three years ago, the Reds, Mariners and Yankees reached agreement on a complex deal. Not only was it a fairly uncommon three-team trade, the deal pushed across the finish line only when the most notable player involved agreed to a three-year contract extension with his new club.

As part of that January 21, 2019 agreement, the Reds landed Sonny Gray. Cincinnati agreed to take on the right-hander’s $7.5MM salary for that season and promised him an additional $30.5MM through 2022. (The deal also included a $12.5MM club option for 2023). The Reds also landed left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartín from New York. In exchange, they sent infielder Shed Long Jr. to Seattle, who flipped their recent second-round draftee, Josh Stowers, to the Yankees.

Gray, an All-Star and AL Cy Young award finalist in 2015, was the obvious headliner of the deal. After a generally strong run in Oakland, he was sent to the Yankees at the 2017 trade deadline. Yet Gray didn’t fare as well during his year-plus in the Bronx, posting a mediocre 4.51 ERA/4.40 FIP across 195 2/3 innings. He dealt with particular struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, managing a 6.55 ERA in home contests during his time in pinstripes.

The Reds identified Gray as a target as they neared the end of a rebuild that had landed them in the basement in the NL Central for four straight seasons. They were rewarded for that decision, as Gray immediately turned things around in his new environs. He twirled 175 1/3 frames with a 2.87 ERA during his first season with the Reds, earning his second All-Star nod and some down ballot Cy Young votes in the process. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged Gray as the most valuable player on the team that year by Wins Above Replacement.

Gray’s excellent debut season wasn’t enough to get the Reds to the postseason, but Cincinnati did qualify for an expanded playoff the next year. His 56 innings of 3.70 ERA ball in the shortened season weren’t quite as impressive as his first-year numbers, but it was still solidly above-average output that contributed to a decent 31-29 team showing. The Reds didn’t make the playoffs over a full schedule last year, but Gray had another nice showing. The 32-year-old’s 4.19 ERA marked a bit of a step back, but a 27% strikeout rate, 47.2% ground-ball percentage and 3.85 SIERA suggest he may have been adversely affected by a poor defense behind him.

Cincinnati hasn’t had the team success they’d no doubt hoped to achieve over the past three seasons. That’s not any fault of Gray’s, though. Over 366 2/3 innings with the Reds, the Vanderbilt product has posted a 3.49 ERA/3.57 FIP, holding opposing hitters to a meager .208/.292/.345 line. Buying low after his struggles with the Yankees proved a shrewd move for former president Dick Williams, general manager Nick Krall, and the rest of the Cincinnati front office.

It remains to be seen whether Gray’s tenure with the Reds is finished. He’s still controllable for two seasons under the terms of the extension he signed at the time of the trade. The organization may be looking to cut payroll after the lockout, and Gray perhaps offers the best blend of recent productivity, availability in trade and 2022 salary (around $10.167MM) of anyone on the roster.

Whether Gray winds up dealt for a third time or opens next season in Cincinnati, the deal counts as a win for the Reds in retrospect. In fact, of the three prospects involved in the trade, Sanmartín is the only one who remains with the club that acquired him. He made his first two MLB starts during the final week of last season and could be a depth starter or long reliever for Cincinnati this year.

The other two prospects — Long and Stowers — were more well-regarded than Sanmartín at the time of the trade. Neither emerged as a long-term option in their new organizations, though. Long tallied 412 plate appearances over three years with Seattle. He hit well as a rookie but struggled between 2020-21, dealing with recurring injury issues around his right shin. Outrighted off the Mariners 40-man roster at the end of last season, the 26-year-old elected minor league free agency and has yet to sign elsewhere. Long figures to get another opportunity — even if just via minors pact — and he’s young enough to have a real chance at turning things around, but he didn’t make the kind of impact in Seattle their front office no doubt hoped he would.

Stowers, meanwhile, has yet to crack the majors. He spent two years in the New York farm system, then was traded to the Rangers last April as part of the deal that sent Rougned Odor to the Bronx. The 24-year-old outfielder (25 next month) then hit .220/.311/.466 across 351 plate appearances in Double-A. Not added to the Texas 40-man roster after the season, he’ll be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft once the lockout wraps up. As with Long, it’s far too early to close the books on Stowers’ career, but he’ll be available to the rest of the league for little more than an active roster spot in the coming months.

The deal also netted the Yankees the Reds’ Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft. New York used that selection (#38 overall) to nab left-hander T.J. Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema, who missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury, was ranked by Baseball America as the #23 prospect in the Yankees’ system midseason. Between the lost minor league season in 2020 and last year’s injury-wrecked campaign, he’s still yet to advance to full season ball. Sikkema will be eligible for next offseason’s Rule 5 draft if not added to the New York 40-man roster, making the 2022 campaign a particularly important one for his future in the organization.

Note: This article was updated to reflect that the Yankees also acquired a Competitive Balance Selection from the Reds.

The Rockies’ Options For Replacing Trevor Story

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Uncertainty at shortstop is unfamiliar territory for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki held down the position for almost a decade, including a handful of seasons where he was among the best position players in the sport. Colorado traded Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays midway through the 2015 campaign, but they had a highly-regarded replacement waiting in the wings.

Trevor Story burst onto the big league scene with six home runs in his first four MLB games in April 2016. Essentially from that point forward, the position was his. Aside from a strikeout-fueled slump in his sophomore season, Story offered solid to plus production on both sides of the ball throughout his time in Denver. The most recent Colorado Opening Day shortstop not named Tulowitzki or Story? Clint Barmes, in 2006.

For the first time in a long time, the Rox now have a real question mark at shortstop. Story hit free agency. The club tagged him with a qualifying offer and has expressed some hope in a reunion, but there’s no indication that’s likely to happen. Assuming Story doesn’t return after the lockout, where could the Rockies go from here?

Unlike after Tulowitzki’s departure, Colorado wouldn’t appear to have a minor league replacement ready to step in. Only two of the top ten prospects in the farm system, according to Baseball America, are shortstops. One of them, Ezequiel Tovar, is 20 years old and finished the 2021 campaign in High-A. The other, Adael Amador, is 18 and has yet to advance to full season ball. So the Rockies will either need to move one of their current big leaguers up the defensive spectrum or replace Story externally.

Internal Options

  • Brendan Rodgers — A former #3 overall draftee and top prospect, Rodgers has appeared in the big leagues in three consecutive seasons but finally got his first extended MLB run last year. He held his own, hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances, starting a bit more than half the team’s games in the middle infield. The bulk of Rodgers’ work came at second base, and while that was partially in deference to Story, it also seems the club believes him better suited for the keystone. In November, Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote that the front office’s “preferred plan is to keep Rodgers … at second base.”
  • Ryan McMahon — McMahon’s coming off a very nice season. He hit a capable .254/.331/.449 over 596 trips to the plate. More impressively, the 27-year-old rated as a Gold Glove caliber defender during a season split between second and third base. After the season, general manager Bill Schmidt expressed his belief McMahon could handle the rigors of regular shortstop duty. That’s not without risks, though. The California native moved to third base in high school and has never started a professional game — MLB or minor league — at shortstop. And while moving McMahon might effectively plug a hole at shortstop, it’d leave the team searching for third base help (perhaps explaining their interest in Kris Bryant?).
  • Garrett Hampson — If Rodgers and McMahon stay put at second and third base, respectively, that’d seemingly leave Hampson as the favorite for shortstop playing time among internal candidates. The speedster has bounced all around the diamond as a big leaguer. He was a primary middle infielder coming up through the minors, though, and he’d likely be a capable if unspectacular option defensively. The bigger question may be whether the Rockies are content to live with Hampson’s bat in the lineup regularly. Despite playing his home games at altitude, the 27-year-old is a .240/.298/.383 hitter in a bit more than 1,000 career plate appearances.
  • Alan Trejo — Trejo is the least experienced of the bunch, with only 28 big league games under his belt. The 25-year-old is probably better suited for a utility role than the regular shortstop job. He has a decent minor league track record but has never appeared on an organizational ranking at BA.

Free Agents

Aside from Story and Carlos Correa, free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions at this point. Andrelton Simmons  is still an elite defender but coming off a miserable season at the plate. José Iglesias had a decent offensive showing but ran into uncharacteristic troubles with the glove. While Jonathan Villar can still moonlight at shortstop, he’s probably better suited for second/third base duty.

Trade Candidates

There are a few shortstops who might be available in trade. The D-Backs would surely listen to offers on Nick Ahmed. The Phillies might find an upgrade over Didi Gregorius. The A’s are likely to try to find a taker for Elvis Andrus. All three players will make fairly notable salaries in 2022, though, and none are definitive improvements over Colorado’s internal options.

The Rockies could act more aggressively in an attempt to land a younger, affordable player from teams with greater infield depth (i.e. the Royals’ Adalberto Mondesi or the Rays’ Taylor Walls). But that’d require parting with young talent from a farm system that Baseball America placed among the league’s bottom five in August. Coming off a 74-87 season, that’s probably not the most advisable course of action either.

Figuring out shortstop has likely been a point of emphasis this winter for Schmidt and his staff. Whether they elect to rely on an internal option without much MLB experience at the position or look outside the organization for help, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they enter 2022 as confident in their shortstop group as they’ve been for quite some time.

MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

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The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.

Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.

While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.

That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.

What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.

Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).

Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Trade Candidate: Ian Happ

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After many months of rumors and speculation, the Cubs finally pulled the ripcord on their rebuild in earnest at last year’s trade deadline. In quick succession, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Jake Marisnick and Trevor Williams were all given opportunities elsewhere.

Now the roster mostly consists of new faces, a combination of players with limited big league resumes and more experienced players acquired since the offseason began. That leaves five-year veteran Ian Happ as one of the longer tenured Cubs remaining, despite having just turned 27 in August. Assuming there are no drastic changes to the service time structure in the upcoming CBA, the Cubs can keep Happ around for two more seasons via arbitration. That makes him an interesting trade chip if the Cubs don’t return to being competitive in the next two years.

How hard they intend to try to compete in the short-term is an open question at this point. After such an aggressive selloff, it stands to reason that they will take some time executing the standard rebuild playbook of focusing on loading the farm system with prospects and using the big league team to evaluate younger talent. Going into the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be “really active in free agency” but “spend money intelligently.” Since then, the club has been more active than some expected, adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. However, the team still has flaws. It’s just one metric, but FanGraphs’ Depth Charts currently peg the Cubs 27th in the league in projected WAR for 2022.

The team could certainly still pursue upgrades, as their projected $114MM payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, would be almost $90MM shy of their franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, they have mostly eschewed lengthy commitments recently, meaning that their books open up even more after 2023. Willson Contreras and Wade Miley are set to reach free agency after this year, Jason Heyward after 2023. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes have two guaranteed years remaining, with the Cubs holding club options over both for 2024. That means that the only guarantees for 2024 are the $21MM for the last year of Marcus Stroman’s deal, which he has the ability to opt out of, and the last guaranteed year of David Bote’s extension, which is just $5.5MM. (There are also opt-outs of $1MM and $500K on Bote’s options for 2025 and 2026.)

Perhaps the most logical course for the Cubs from here is to spend two years figuring out which young players are part of the future and then using those empty books to decide how to spend money building around them. They could then spend wildly on their areas of greatest need, as the Tigers and Rangers have done this offseason.

Coming out of the lockout, it’s widely expected that there will be a mad flurry of transactions, perhaps rivalling or even surpassing the frenzy that occurred prior to the lockout. The Cubs would be able to be patient, as Happ would likely have just as much appeal at the trade deadline. He can fit on just about any club’s roster as he has versatility in more ways than one. For starters, he’s a switch hitter, although he does have a significant platoon split. (Career wRC+ of 121 from the left side but just 85 from the right.) Secondly, he’s can play most positions on the diamond. Although he’s played more outfield than infield in the past couple seasons, he still saw time at first, second and third base in 2021. The last time he played more than 20 games in a season at any one infield position was the 44 games he played at second base back in 2017, but teams still love a player with versatility, even if they hope not to need it.

Even if most teams don’t view Happ as a realistic infield target, he will still have appeal for his bat. In each of his five seasons, he’s posted above-average numbers by measure of wRC+, despite also racking up strikeouts at a rate above the league average. His career line thus far is .241/.338/.467, wRC+ of 112, strikeout rate of 30.8%. In 2021, he slumped slightly to a line of .226/.323/.434, but that was still good enough for a wRC+ of 103. There’s also room for optimism when one considers that Happ spent time on the IL in May for a rib contusion and improved as he distanced himself from that. His wRC+ in June was 32, followed by a 59 in July, 124 in August and 167 in September/October. He’s also projected to make a salary of $6.5MM this year through arbitration, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, which is affordable for even the lighter spending teams in the league.

As mentioned, there’s no hurry to move Happ. He has two years of club control and maybe the Cubs can even surprise some people by surpassing expectations in the meantime. After all, it’s widely expected that the new CBA will include an expanded postseason field of some kind. Even hovering around .500 might be good enough to sneak in. Or if not, he could be flipped for younger players with the potential to be part of the next great Cubs team. Whichever way it works out, Happ could be useful to the team, whether he continues wearing their uniform or not.

Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?

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It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.

That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.

Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.

If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.

Luis Castillo

Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).

Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.

Tyler Mahle

As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.

Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.

Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.

Sonny Gray

Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.

The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.

On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.

Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.

We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

 

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