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Why Haven’t The Braves Paid Freddie Freeman?

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Though the consensus across the industry remains that Braves franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman will ultimately end up back in Atlanta, few expected Freeman to reach 2021 Opening Day — let alone the long-inevitable lockout — without a deal to keep the face of the franchise with the only club he’s ever known well into the backside of his career. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is notorious for playing his cards as close to the vest as any GM in the game, but it would at least appear that the chances of Freeman joining friend, mentor, and recent MLBTR chatee Chipper Jones in spending the entirety of a Hall of Fame-caliber career in Atlanta have reached an all-time low.

Based on the most recent reports of the state of talks between the Braves and their sweet-swinging lefty (which came via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in mid-November), player and team are hung up on both length and value, with the Braves reportedly offering a five-year, $135MM pact and Freeman holding out for something closer to six years and $200MM. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR projected Freeman would ultimately land a six-year, $180MM deal, a prediction that roughly accords with how the market played out ahead of the lockout.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in December, while there’s no obviously ideal fit for Freeman outside of Atlanta, there’s also no NL team with an established incumbent at DH, hypothetically expanding Freeman’s market to NL teams with an entrenched first basemen — including the Dodgers (Max Muncy/Cody Bellinger), the Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt), the Giants (Brandon Belt), and the Mets (Pete Alonso) — should the new CBA include a universal DH. But not every team has the payroll flexibility to add Freeman, of course, and few see either first base (the least demanding defensive position) or DH (a non-defensive role) as positions worthy of major payroll commitments, both of which Anthopoulos is likely relying on as he attempts to wait out his star.

Three teams with money to spend (the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays) were reported to have kicked the tires on Freeman ahead of the lockout, but Tim notes reasons to remain suspect with regard to each: in his seven years at the helm in LA, Andrew Friedman has never given out a deal longer than four years to another team’s free agent; the Yankees have more urgent needs at shortstop and in the rotation; and the Blue Jays would have to either transition Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back to third base (where his defense would detract from his bat’s enormous value) or ask their young star to give up his glove entirely after an MVP-caliber season at first. Still, each of these clubs have the financial flexibility to pry Freeman from the Braves, and there’s no telling how any team will react to the free-agent feeding frenzy likely to follow the end of the lockout.

Fresh off a World Series run few expected, the Braves and their deep-pocketed owner clearly could afford to keep Freeman on the books (the Braves are owned by the Denver-based corporation Liberty Media, whose chairman, John Malone, has an estimated net worth of $8 billion, per MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald). Because Liberty Media is a publicly traded company, the Braves’ profit-and-loss numbers are a matter of public record. The company’s 2021 third quarter earnings report (which runs from July 1 to September 30, roughly the second half of the regular season) records $222MM in Braves-related revenue and an operating profit of $35MM while running a full-season payroll of just shy of $145MM (per Fangraphs’ RosterResource) — a profit figure that does not include the club’s massive playoff gate windfall, the flurry of championship merchandise sales, or the lucrative explosions in season ticket sales and sponsorship deals that commonly follow a title.

To be clear, though he was characteristically cagy about the details, Anthopoulos has stated publicly that the Braves will run a higher payroll in 2022, a feat they’re likely to accomplish even without a fresh Freeman deal. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts (which includes salary estimates for the Braves’ nine arbitration-eligible big-leaguers), the Braves have already allocated just under $129MM in salary commitments in 2022 and are still in need of at least one starting-caliber outfielder; of the four outfielders the team rotated in the playoffs (Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall), only Duvall is presently under contract, and no one is sure what to expect from superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. (returning from a major knee injury) or Marcell Ozuna (from administrative leave) – or, indeed, whether the latter will even remain with the club. Further, while Acuña has played solidly in several years in center field and Duvall managed it through the playoffs, each is likely better suited for a corner. One of the prospect trio of Cristian Pache, Michael Harris, and Drew Waters is likely the long-term answer in center, but none has yet proven himself ready to take over.

How the Braves choose to address this need (as well as for a possible veteran innings-eater to complement the stable of young arms they’ll slot in behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson) remains to be seen, but both Soler (projected to land a three-year, $36MM deal) and Rosario (two years, $15MM) are live possibilities. Presuming roughly $15MM of 2022 salary to address these needs would put the club right around last year’s payroll figure, and a $30MM annual commitment to Freeman on top would push them significantly beyond any number with which ownership has seemed comfortable in the past.

These are heady times in Atlanta, of course — and Liberty Media’s balance sheet makes it clear it’s a bump they could profitably absorb — but there are baseball reasons to consider. Freeman will be entering his age-32 season in 2022, after all, and the Braves will want to do everything they can to avoid the sort of millstone deal given to other first basemen (e.g. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera) in the last decade or so. Still, Freeman has been a model of consistency, posting an OPS+ of 132 or higher in every season since 2013, and recent years have shown no signs of regression; the first baseman followed an astonishing run to an NL MVP behind a .341/.462/.640 line in the small sample of 2020 by essentially replicating his career numbers (.295/.384/.509) in 2021 (.300/.393/.503) despite an uncharacteristically slow start.

The slugger’s batted-ball numbers also show no serious warning signs; though his line-drive percentage fell to 25.1% in 2021 (his lowest since 2012), his hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls with exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 46.2% matched his career number exactly. His 2021 strikeout (15.4%) and walk (12.2%) also fall on the right side of his career numbers (19.7% and 11.7%, respectively).

A six-year deal would take him through his age-37 season (by which point Father Time is likely to have made at least some progress), but the recent precedent in Atlanta is on Freeman’s side. Though he never played in more than 143 games after his age-31 season, Jones remained a productive Brave through age 40, even winning a batting title in his age-36 season and lodging his final two All-Star appearances at ages 39 and 40, all while playing a much more taxing defensive position.

How Anthopoulos will choose to play the Freeman situation on the other side of the lockout remains to be seen, but he’ll almost certainly have to rethink his aversion to a sixth year to keep his face of the franchise around. The pre-lockout market proved favorable to high-end players; Marcus Semien, who’s only a year younger than Freeman and has a much less extensive track record of high-end offensive production, pulled down a seven-year deal, for instance, and he isn’t even expected to be asked to cover the premium position of shortstop. Braves fans are currently riding high off their first championship since 1995, but losing the one player they kept around following their post-2014 teardown would surely let quite a bit of air out of the balloon. Landing either native Atlantan Matt Olson (who’d cost the Braves a pretty penny in trade capital) or Anthony Rizzo (projected for a three-year, $45MM pact, and on whom the Braves have apparently kicked the tires) might soften the blow, but neither has the professional or personal stature Freeman has earned in his twelve years as a Brave.

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?

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Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.

During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.

One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.

Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.

Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.

For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?

(poll link for app users)

 

Cubs Eschewing Power In New Ways

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Last season, as most of Major League Baseball moved incontrovertibly towards a high velocity, strikeout-forward approach, the Cubs put together a soft-tossing rotation not at all focused on missing bats. Headlined by Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, perhaps the two preeminent control artists in the sport, the Cubs unique approach aimed–quite literally–to induce weak contact rather than avoid it. If success was a long shot, there was at least a strategy, even if their zag to the league’s zig was prompted by need.

Chicago’s pipeline of pitching talent had gone dry. The Jon Lester– Jake Arrieta-Hendricks triumvirate was the engine of the 2015-2017 peak Cubs. When they came to power in 2015, Cubs’ starters finished third overall in the Majors with a 3.36 ERA. They topped the sport by measure of ERA in 2016 with a 2.96 mark. By 2017, they had begun to slip, down to seventh overall with a 4.04 mark.

The magic was gone. As Arrieta’s superhuman years faded into the background, the Cubs let him walk in free agency. They made moves to replace him–trading for Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, and Jose Quintana–some moves came before he left and some came after, but none could stand up to Arrieta in his short, but astronomical peak. Lester began to age, Darvish’s return to frontline status was a slow burn, and the Cubs settled into a groove of good, but unremarkable rotations, finishing 10th overall by ERA in 2018 and 2019.

David Ross’ squad sprinted to a sixth overall finish in 2020 by ERA as Darvish and Hendricks gave them a semblance of the staffs from the peak Cubs. Maybe their success emboldened the front office to give the offensive core one more opportunity to recapture the magic of the 2016 title run. But as we now know, the Cubs were at their best when driven by a top-notch rotation, and in 2021, they were stuck in the slow lane.

Only Hendricks and Davies made all 32 starts, but both posted the worst seasons of their careers as the Cubs lost 91 games. The rotation ranked 26th overall with a 5.27 team ERA, easily the worst performance since the Cubs took off in 2015. A power pitching game isn’t strictly necessary to field a competitive squad, but the Cubs do need something more.

They’ve already made strides, putting together a less gimmicky rotation than last year, scooping Wade Miley off the waiver wire and signing one of the top free agent arms in Marcus Stroman.

On the offensive end, the speculation continues that they might make a bid for Carlos Correa. If not, the Cubs would roll out a starting middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. While the young pair is promising, one could also argue that they represent the hitter version of last year’s rotation gambit. While the rest of the baseball world hunts dingers, a Hoerner/Madrigal combo boasts turn-of-the-century talent – and not this century.

Hoerner has hit three home runs in 378 career plate appearances, while Madrigal has two over 324 plate appearances. Steamer suggests a whopping 14 combined home runs between the two of them if given regular playing time. Home runs aren’t everything, so we can check their isolated power: Madrigal owns a .089 ISO and Hoerner a .078 ISO. Where .167 ISO is league-average, Nico and Nick are decidedly punch-less. Granted, neither has played even a full season in the Majors, so their numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but neither has shown much power in the minor leagues either.

Signing of Correa or Trevor Story changes the calculus, but either way, the Cubs expect Hoerner and Madrigal to be regular cogs in the lineup. There’s upside there for Chicago, but whether it’s enough to charge this new era of Cubs baseball remains to be seen. The Cubs have long had a strikeout problem from a team perspective, and getting 500+ at-bats from Hoerner and Madrigal would definitely see more balls put in play. Neither walks a ton, however, so there’s heavy lifting to do in other parts of the lineup, as well as for manager David Ross in putting together a lineup with two contact-first bats who don’t walk or hit for power. (As a counterpoint, Hoerner posted a 10.0 walk rate in 2021, which is better than the league-average rate of 8.7 percent, and a 9.5 percent walk rate the year before.)

Of course, the Cubs don’t like Madrigal and Hoerner because of what they don’t do.

Both are regarded as strong defenders, making them necessary supports for the new-look rotation. Stroman and Miley finished in the top 10 among qualified pitchers for groundball rate, and though Hendricks’ 43.1 percent groundball rate wasn’t as high as many years, he still finished 20th in the Majors by that metric. Infield defense will have to be a plus for the Cubs new rotation to succeed, and their young, contact-oriented duo will be key.

For that to work, however, their infield duo needs to be on the field, and both have struggled in that regard. More than a lack of power, poor health will doom the potential of the Nico and Nick show.

If they do stay healthy, they are the beginning of a movement underway in Chicago. We can even add first baseman Frank Schwindel to the list of Cubs infielders who excel at making contact. Of course, Patrick Wisdom strikes out enough for the whole infield (40.8 percent strikeout rate over 375 plate appearances in 2021). That certainly helped land the Cubs the highest strikeout rate in baseball last season at 26.7 percent. They finished 27th-ranked in 2020.

Strikeouts are a death knell for an offense, killing momentum and vaporizing the potential favor of BABIP good luck. It’s not “the answer,” but it’s certainly a piece of what could be a winning strategy. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. And believe it or not, the Cubs’ brass still wants good things to happen for this ballclub. The peak era Cubs boasted big-time power, so they could weather higher strikeout rates, but that team is gone, and this team is still forming its identity.

The Cubs tried putting together a pitching staff that didn’t strike anybody out, so it’s only natural that when that failed, they should try an offense that puts the ball in play. After all, they know it works because they’ve seen it work. With Nico and Nick leading the way, if nothing else, these new Cubs should put the ball in play, just to give themselves a chance.

Can The White Sox Make The Most Of Andrew Vaughn?

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The White Sox have one of the best closers of his generation burning a hole in their pocket. Craig Kimbrel’s trade availability is no secret, so much so that speculation has reached the what-happens-if-they-don’t-trade-him part of the trade rumors life cycle, as explored yesterday by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. That said, when GM Rick Hahn picks up the phone to talk shop with one of the other 29 general managers, Kimbrel’s not likely the sole topic of conversation.

After all, determining value for a player like Kimbrel can often be accomplished by touching on a number of evaluative points, i.e. players, before circling back to the original focus. And of course, sometimes those conversation never return to the original player of focus at all. Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports speculates on who some of those other players are that the White Sox might bandy about in trade talks. This practice mostly amounts to a listing of the White Sox prospects and young players who haven’t yet established themselves in full-time roles, and sure enough, for Chicago’s Southsiders, they are the type of win-now club that must consider moving prospects.

The top player on Duber’s list (after Kimbrel), is Andrew Vaughn, the third overall pick of the 2019 draft. After an explosive season with the California Golden Bears, Vaughn was seen as a potential fast-riser, but it was still surprising to see the White Sox take a first baseman third overall, behind only superstars-in-waiting Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Impressive though his bat was, first baseman simply don’t usually go that high in the draft.

What’s more, the White Sox already had a first baseman in Jose Abreu. Abreu hadn’t yet put up his 2020 MVP season, but internally, the organization has always held him in high regard. Drafting for positional need isn’t exactly the rule of thumb for the MLB draft, of course. Regardless, at the time, Abreu was a potential free agent at the end of the year. So Vaughn, besides being a high-end college bat, benefited the White Sox as an insurance policy and negotiating tactic even before he donned a uniform.

Vaughn being blocked at first by Abreu was an easy can to kick down the road for Chicago’s draft team, but the hypothetical quandary actualized in 2021 as Vaughn approached big-league readiness. Though 2019 was his only season of minor league experience because of the pandemic, the White Sox nevertheless deemed Vaughn ready for the show in 2021, and they didn’t let the fact that there wasn’t an avenue to regular playing time stop them from placing Vaughn on the opening day roster. Of course, injuries cleared a path: all Vaughn had to do was learn a new position on the fly at the highest level of the sport.

All things considered, Vaughn held his own rather well in his rookie season, slashing .235/.309/.396 across 469 plate appearances while spending time at first base, left field, right field, second base, and third base. His performance at the plate was a touch disappointing as he finished six percent worse than average with a 94 wRC+, but if anyone deserves a little grace, it’s Vaughn.

Again, let’s consider the circumstances. Vaughn played his age-23 season not having played organized baseball in more than a year, never having appeared above High-A while adjusting to life as a part-time player and learning not one, but four new positions. He did so for a team with postseason expectations that absolutely did not have time to wait for Vaughn to “grow up.” He did so while taking the place of not one, but two injured outfielders in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert who had quickly become the faces of the rising power in Armour Square. Even to be roughly the value of a replacement player under those circumstances (0.2 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR) has to be counted as a win for the ChiSox. The future is bright for Vaughn, with Steamer projecting Vaughn to become a 114 wRC+ hitter by next season.

For a high draft pick debuting for a championship contender, Vaughn’s national spotlight was surprisingly dim. His low profile can be partially attributed to the other stars on the team that pull attention their way, it could be partially attributed to the fact that the White Sox ran away with the division, but most of all, it’s probably attributable to the fact that part-time players rarely take center stage. And as Gavin Sheets, another rookie bat, crushed righty after righty, Vaughn was more-and-more relegated to the short-side platoon duties for which he was probably best suited.

Vaughn’s platoon splits are hard to ignore. The young slugger mauled southpaws to the tune of a 156 wRC+ with a .269/.383/.555 line. Against right-handers, Vaughn shrunk to a .221/.277/.332 triple slash, a mere 68 wRC+. Based on that production, Vaughn is already an elite short-side platoon bat. The question is whether he can grow to be more than that if he’s not getting those at-bats against same-handed hurlers. The White Sox will be heavy favorites in the AL Central, but the Royals and Tigers are rising, and the Twins and Guardians were formidable foes not long ago. It’s fair to question whether they can give him that time and space to develop.

We have to ask the question: should the White Sox trade Vaughn? For as much as Chicago will be favorited, they have holes to fill at second base, right field, and potentially in the rotation. It would hurt to move Vaughn, but to Duber’s point, we need only return to the Kimbrel trade to see Hahn’s willingness to shuffle pieces around to meet positional need – even when that means sacrificing young players. Last year’s trade of Nick Madrigal was a particular circumstance, of course, where Madrigal’s injury rendered him a zero in 2021. Hahn saw the potential to turn Madrigal’s zero into positive points on the ledger as they made a bid to be World Series contenders.

Of course, given how that turned out for Chicago, Hahn might think twice about making a similar move. That said, moving Vaughn would be a similar move if Vaughn is going to continue as a part-time player. Turning part-time production into full-time production would be a similar capitalization of resources, but that assumes that Chicago won’t find a way to get Vaughn into the lineup on a regular basis. Besides, his long-term potential coupled with his elite production against lefties might be enough for Hahn to tighten his grip on Vaughn, regardless of what kind of player he could get in return.

There’s also the matter of Vaughn’s “versatility,” which Chicago certainly utilized in 2021. Vaughn didn’t embarrass himself defensively at any position, but he also wasn’t a positive in any spot. Sure, they can continue to move him around the diamond as needs arise, but that might not be the best way to maximize Vaughn as a resource.

There are basically two avenues that the White Sox will want to consider for Vaughn as a resource. How can they maximize his value to help this team right now, and how can they best develop Vaughn as a player to reach his substantial ceiling? If they feel confident in aligning those tracks, then there’s no reason to consider moving Vaughn, not when alternatives to fill those roster holes remain. If the White Sox have doubts about their ability to multi-task Vaughn’s development, then it’s worth considering his value on the market.

Then again, what exactly would they be targeting in a deal? A regular second baseman or right fielder with similar team control and potential. Say, a Nick Madrigal type? I kid. But maybe they could pair Vaughn with Kimbrel to get a true in-their-prime superstar in return? Unfortunately, Kimbrel and Vaughn together offer the wrong blend of win-now and build-to-the-future potential for a team that might be willing to subtract a “true superstar.” Besides, there are only so many young players who have proven themselves to be Major League players that a team wants to surrender, even if they have holes to fill.

These deals happen, of course, and they’re rarely easy to spot before the trades are delivered to the league office. The Brewers and Rays excel at these types of deals, but they typically avoid any preciousness about their young players. The White Sox don’t have quite that history. Therefore, more than likely, Vaughn will continue his development as a member of the 2022 White Sox, sometimes playing right field, sometimes playing first base, always crushing lefties, and hopefully beginning to find his way to holding down an everyday spot in the lineup – and that much is true no matter what uniform he wears.

What If The White Sox Don’t Trade Craig Kimbrel?

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While the White Sox exercised their $16MM club option on Craig Kimbrel back in November, Chicago GM’s Rick Hahn hinted that the veteran closer could very well be in a different uniform come Opening Day 2022.  “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?” Hahn told reporters, thus setting the stage for weeks of trade rumors before the lockout halted all big league trade activity.  The signing of Kendall Graveman prior to the transactions freeze also seemed to indicate that Kimbrel would be moved, as the White Sox now had his replacement readied.

Kimbrel’s salary, age (he turns 34 in May), his lack of success in 2019 and 2020, and his struggles after joining the Sox at the trade deadline are all notable obstacles to any deal.  The clearest avenue towards a trade might be some kind of swap of unfavorable contracts, with the White Sox moving Kimbrel for another high-salaried player that could be a fit for second base, right field, or another of Chicago’s positions of need.  Or, in a longer shot, there might be a bullpen-needy team out there willing to cover most or all of Kimbrel’s contract, with this team less focused on Kimbrel’s aforementioned red flags and more on the incredible numbers he posted for the Cubs during the first four months of the 2021 campaign.

As much as Kimbrel didn’t pitch well post-trade, his early-season dominance can’t be written off.  Kimbrel posted a 0.49 ERA, 46.7% strikeout rate, and a 37.2% strikeout-to-walk rate, looking all the world like he’d bounced back to his early-career star form.  This performance was why the Cubs were able to command a high price for Kimbrel at the deadline, resulting in the acquisition of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer from their Windy City rivals.

Declining Kimbrel’s option would’ve meant the White Sox would’ve gotten nothing at all for that big trade outlay.  So, as risky as it may seem, exercising Kimbrel’s option and dealing him now might allow the Sox salvage a good return (if obviously not a Madrigal/Heuer return) and get a new player who can help them take that next step forward in the postseason.

But, for all of the Kimbrel trade speculation, there has been far less buzz over the other portion of Hahn’s statement.  While it can be assumed that the team’s preference is to work out a trade, what if such an acceptable deal can’t be found, and thus “it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward“?

NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber recently explored the challenges of a Kimbrel trade, and floated the possibility that Kimbrel might wind up returning to the White Sox bullpen.  “Yes, it would seem quite strange for Hahn to take the seemingly significant step of talking about a Kimbrel trade in the open only to not make a deal,” Duber notes, and yet it isn’t exactly a worst-case scenario for the Sox to have what might be a potentially loaded bullpen.

With closer Liam Hendriks headlining a group of Kimbrel, Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Jose Ruiz, and (depending on how he is deployed) Garrett Crochet, there’s a lot of talent in that relief corps.  This type of depth might also be a necessity given the questions in Chicago’s rotation — Carlos Rodon seems likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, Dallas Keuchel struggled in 2021, and Michael Kopech might not yet be ready to assume a full starters’ workload.  If the White Sox bullpen can consistently eat three or more innings per game, however, that significantly reduces what is required of the starters, and helps keep them fresh for the playoffs.

This assumes that Kimbrel will be a solid contributor himself in 2022, rather than the homer-prone reliever who allowed five home runs and posted a 5.09 ERA over 23 innings with the ChiSox.  As small as that sample size is, Kimbrel’s 36 2/3 innings with the Cubs last season isn’t much larger, so it remains to be seen exactly which Kimbrel might show up next year.

Breaking down Kimbrel’s Sox tenure, it is worth noting that a lot of his problems were contained to two brutal games — ironically, both against the Cubs.  Kimbrel allowed three runs over two-thirds of an inning against the Cubs on August 6, and then three more runs against his former team in an inning of work on August 27.  Subtract those two outings from the equation, and Kimbrel suddenly has a much more impressive 2.95 ERA over 21 1/3 frames with the White Sox, and only two home runs allowed.

There might also be a more basic reason why Kimbrel didn’t pitch well with the White Sox.  The right-hander tossed only 36 total regular-season innings over the 2019-20 seasons, before jumping back up to 59 2/3 IP in 2021.  As Jordan Lazowski of the Sox On 35th blog observed, Kimbrel’s fastball velocity declined by 1.7 mph from June to September, leading to a natural decrease in the quality of his fastball, and some mechanical issues that seemed to develop as Kimbrel tried to adjust and compensate.

In theory, if the 2021 season helped get Kimbrel’s arm re-acclimated to an increased workload, it could bode well for the righty to keep things going for all six months of the next regular season (and, the White Sox hope, into October).  This is another instance where a deep Chicago bullpen can come in handy, as if Tony La Russa can pick and choose from several quality options for close late-game situations, Kimbrel’s innings can be managed to some extent.

Keeping Kimbrel’s $16MM on the books gives the White Sox less flexibility for other moves this winter, as the Pale Hose are already projected for a team-record high number of roughly $180MM in 2022.  Yet, if Hahn and company can move some other money around to get that second baseman or right fielder, or if ownership green-lights more spending, a Kimbrel deal wouldn’t be so critical to Chicago’s post-lockout plans.

Who Will Sign Kris Bryant?

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Kris Bryant had a rough showing in 2020, with injuries limiting him to 34 games and batting line of .206/.293/.351 for a wRC+ of 75. However, that is the clear outlier on his resume, as his six other seasons have seen him put up a wRC+ of at least 123. Overall, in 884 games, his line is .278/.353/.481, 134 wRC+.

Bryant has been primarily a third baseman in his career, but has diversified his defensive portfolio in recent seasons. In 2021, he still played 55 games at third, but also 48 games in left field, 39 in right, 19 in center, 12 at first base and one at shortstop. With that defensive versatility, it’s possible to fit him into just about any team’s lineup puzzle.

However, some teams won’t be serious contenders for Bryant’s services for financial reasons. MLBTR predicted Bryant to get a contract of $160MM over six years. Some teams have never given a free agent a contract close to that in franchise history, such as the Athletics, Guardians, Pirates and Royals. The Rays made an exception for Wander Franco but don’t seem likely to give out another huge deal this year, even though they considered trading for him last year. The Orioles and Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to throw that kind of money around given the state of their current rosters. The Reds considered acquiring Bryant at last year’s deadline but now seem like they want to subtract payroll rather than adding. Let’s take a look at some of the other options.

Teams With Known Interest

  • Mariners — The Mariners tried to trade for Bryant last year and have been connected to him in free agency. With Kyle Seager reaching free agency and eventually retiring, they have a vacancy at third base for the first time in years. Abraham Toro would be the favorite for now, but he could also platoon at second with Adam Frazier or serve a utility role. They also have an uncertain outfield mix, with a great many talented youngsters on hand, though they all still come with varying degrees of uncertainty. After a 90-win season, they’ve been aggressive in trying to load up for 2022, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to the squad.
  • Rockies — The Rockies have been fairly quiet so far this offseason, letting Jon Gray go to the Rangers and seemingly content to let Trevor Story eventually depart as well. However, one move they’ve considered is a pursuit of Bryant. If they were to put Bryant at third, Ryan McMahon could theoretically slide to second base with Brendan Rodgers playing shortstop. If they want Bryant in the outfield, they have lots of room there, with none of Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe or Raimel Tapia being a real obstacle. The addition of the DH in the NL would make the fit even easier.
  • Mets — The Mets had discussions about acquiring Bryant at the deadline last year and have been connected to him in free agency. After spending big on Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, it’s possible the Mets are done with throwing huge checks around. Although now that they’ve pushed their 2022 payroll up to $263MM, it’s unclear if they have any limitations at all, meaning nothing can be ruled out completely.
  • Angels — The Angels were listed among Bryant’s suitors before the lockout. With Anthony Rendon pencilled into third base, Bryant would likely need to play the outfield as long as Rendon is healthy and in the lineup. Mike Trout would take another outfield slot, with Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Justin Upton on hand as options as well. The Angels have serious questions about their middle infield, however, meaning they should have higher priorities than Bryant.
  • Padres — Similar to the Angels, the Padres were connected to Bryant before the lockout, despite having an incumbent third baseman in Manny Machado. He could certainly help in the outfield, however, as he’d be a clear upgrade to their current options of Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar. The question will be how much money they have to spend, as they ran a franchise record payroll of $174MM in 2021 and are already set to start 2022 just under $200MM.
  • Phillies — The Phillies were also rumored to be interested in Bryant before the lockout, which makes sense given their needs. The club has some big question marks in the outfield, outside of Bryce Harper. Bryant could also act as an insurance policy if third baseman Alec Bohm continues to struggle after a disappointing 2021 season.
  • Astros — The Astros reportedly checked in Bryant before the deadline, though it’s a bit hard to see the fit on paper. Alex Bregman is slotted in at third, with the club having an outfield/DH rotation of Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and Jake Myers. Shortstop is their most obvious area of need, making someone like Trevor Story a better theoretical fit.
  • Giants — Bryant would be a logical fit with the Giants, given that they traded for him in 2021. However, they are apparently unlikely to consider nine-figure contracts this offseason, which would seem to rule out a reunion.

Speculative Fits

  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays could certainly use an infield upgrade to make up for the loss of Marcus Semien. They reportedly made a run at Corey Seager before both he and Semien ended up with the Rangers. They apparently still have spending to do after the lockout, even after adding Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia. If Bryant were to take over at third base, Cavan Biggio could return to his natural position of second base, which Semien nudged him off of. They’ve also been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re open to adding in the outfield as well.
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers re-signed Chris Taylor before the lockout to be their super-utility option and seemingly have bigger needs in the rotation. But given how much they love adding depth, they can’t be completely discounted. 2022 is also potentially the team’s final year with AJ Pollock and Justin Turner. (Pollock has a 2023 player option, while there is a club/vesting option for Turner.) Adding Bryant now would be a way for the Dodgers to prepare for the departure of either.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have already spent huge amounts of money to upgrade their infield, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. With Josh Jung on the way to take over the third base, there’s little room for Bryant on the infield. However, the current outfield of Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun, Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak could certainly accommodate him. They’ve been connected to Seiya Suzuki recently, suggesting they are considering a significant outfield addition of some sort.
  • Red Sox — Boston subtracted a big right-handed bat when they traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. Since then, they have been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re looking to replace Renfroe’s bat through free agency. With Bryant in one outfield corner and Alex Verdugo in another, they could have Jarren Duran and Jackie Bradley Jr. competing for the center field job.
  • Yankees — The Yanks have been a sleeping giant so far in this offseason, seemingly pushing major moves until after they could get a look at the new CBA. DJ LeMahieu is the best fit for third base duties at the moment, though he could also defer to Bryant and move over to first base, especially if the club pulls the trigger on a Luke Voit trade. Like the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Yankees were also connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they could also find a way to work Bryant into the outfield mix, perhaps in combination with a Joey Gallo trade.

Long Shots

  • Braves — The staring contest between Freddie Freeman and the Braves was not settled before the lockout. If they can’t work out a deal, Atlanta could always pivot to Bryant to try and make up for the outfield losing Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson. But with Freeman and Bryant likely looking at similar contracts, it seems much more likely they spend that money on the guy who’s been the face of the franchise and just helped them win the World Series.
  • Brewers — Luis Urias had a nice breakout season in 2021 and seems like the favorite for Milwaukee’s third base job, but he can also play second and shortstop, making him a good candidate for a super-utility role. If the NL adds the DH, it would be even easier for him and Bryant to share playing time. However, the Brewers are currently set to run a payroll of $121MM this year, just shy of their franchise record, which was $123 in 2019. Adding the money it would take to sign Bryant doesn’t seem likely.
  • Cardinals — The Cards already have an excellent third baseman in Nolan Arenado, as well as a solid outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar. After the lockout, they’re reportedly going to be focused on upgrading in the bullpen, though the addition of the DH to the NL could make them more interested in another bat.
  • Cubs — Bringing Bryant back to Wrigley would be a lot of fun, but doesn’t seem likely. The club seems to be eschewing lengthy commitments for the short-term. They did make the surprising add of Marcus Stroman, though his deal is only for a maximum of three years and could be even less if he opts out.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are looking for outfield help but it’s hard to see them putting enough cash on the barrel for Bryant. The $53MM guarantee given to Avisail Garcia was the largest of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter era. A few days later, they broke that record with Sandy Alcantara’s $56MM extension. With Bryant likely to get more than both of those combined, it’s hard to see the Marlins winning the bidding.
  • Nationals — All signs points to the Nats taking a step back in 2022 and giving playing time to younger, cheaper players. After last year’s fire sale, they have lots of payroll space and could theoretically use it on a big signing like Bryant, though it seems like they’ll be holding their cash for at least a year.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been aggressive so far but may have already made their big moves with Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Another huge contract would be a surprise, though a Bryant-Baez reunion would certainly be a fun one.
  • Twins — The Twins have to do something if they want to bounce back from a nightmare season and compete again in 2022. But they already have a strong lineup and have heavy lifting to do in the rotation.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have their biggest need at second base, making Bryant an imperfect fit. They also ran a franchise record payroll of $129MM in 2021 and are currently slated to demolish that with a projected Opening Day payroll of $180MM for 2022. Adding Bryant into the mix would be a surprise.

Which landing spot makes the most sense to you? Which jersey do you think Bryant will be wearing in 2022?

(poll link for app users)

Who’s Blocking Spencer Torkelson?

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In 2019, the Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 47-114, easily the worst in the league that year. The silver lining in a season that bad is receiving the first overall selection in the next year’s draft. The Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on Spencer Torkelson, a first baseman out of Arizona State University. (At the time, the club announced him as a third baseman, despite him not playing that position in college.)

Torkelson wasn’t able to play any organized ball for the Tigers that year, as the pandemic wiped out all of the minor league seasons, but 2021 was a rocketship ride up the minor league ladder. He started the year in High-A, playing 31 games and mashing at a rate of .312/.440/.569, wRC+ of 171. A promotion to a higher quality of competition in Double-A dampened his production, but only slightly. In 50 games there, he hit .263/.373/.560, for a wRC+ of 148. He was promoted yet again and got into 40 Triple-A games. Although the higher quality of pitching led to a decreased batting average, he still hit for power and drew walks, slashing .238/.350/.531, 129 wRC+. After that, he went to the Arizona Fall League but was sidelined with an ankle injury after just seven games. He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training. He is now considered the #4 prospect in all of baseball by all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.

After that tremendous showing at all levels, he seems a virtual lock to join the big leagues in 2022, the only questions will be about the date and which position he plays. In college, Torkelson primarily played first base, with a bit of outfield work sprinkled in. But when the Tigers drafted him, they announced him as a third baseman. In 2021, he played first and third somewhat evenly to start the year, with first base taking over as the season wore on. At High-A, he got into 15 games at first and 16 at third, with his Double-A stint featuring 23 at first and 27 at third. But in Triple-A, he played first base in 37 games, none at the hot corner. However, he did get into a couple of games at third base in the Arizona Fall League before the injury.

First base would seem to be the best path to playing time for Torkelson, both because of his greater experience at the position and because of the current makeup of the Tigers’ roster. Jeimer Candelario seems to have locked himself in as the third baseman after a strong pair of seasons with the bat. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .297/.369/.503 for a wRC+ of 138 over 52 games. Although he played more first base than third that year, he moved across the diamond in 2021, playing 142 games at third and not appearing at first at all. Statcast considered him to be a roughly league-average defender, as he finished the year at -1 Outs Above Average. He also had another good year at the plate, hitting .271/.351/.443, 119 wRC+.

The situation at first base, however, can fit Torkelson into the picture much more easily. The Tigers gave most of the first base playing time to Jonathan Schoop in 2021, as he appeared in 114 games there. But that was Schoop’s first showing at the position, as he had largely been a second baseman prior to that. He even played 38 games at the keystone last year. If Torkelson were to take over at first base, Schoop could slide back to his traditional position at second. That would create a bit of a crowd in the middle infield for the Tigers, as they signed Javier Baez to take over the shortstop position. If Schoop was getting regular playing time at second, there would be little room for younger players like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Zack Short. None of those players have fully cemented themselves as everyday regulars just yet, but for a Tigers team that is looking to emerge from a lengthy rebuild, it should still be a priority to give chances for unproven players to blossom and take a step forward.

One way to help with this crowding would be to rotate these players through the designated hitter slot, giving them a bit of a rest while still getting reps in the batter’s box. However, that raises the question of how many DH at-bats will be going to Miguel Cabrera. While there’s no questioning he’s one of the greatest hitters of his generation, he hasn’t been an above-average hitter over a full season since 2016. His wRC+ dropped to 92 in 2017, then bounced back to 127 in 2018, though injuries cut his season short after just 38 games. In 2019, he dropped just below the league average of 100 again, coming in at 97. He snuck over the line in 2020 with a mark of 103, though that was the pandemic-shortened campaign. In 2021, he dropped down to 92 again.

Up until now, letting the veteran continue to play out his contract and hit career milestones hasn’t been an issue as the team hasn’t been earnestly trying to compete for some time. But push will likely come to shove at some point, as the club has already spent a lot of money this offseason in order to wipe their hands of this lengthy rebuild. Even if they don’t become AL Central favorites right out of the gate in 2022, Cabrera still has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract and will turn 39 in April. After getting 526 plate appearances in 130 games in 2021, how much rope will he get going forward? Is he destined to be squeezed out by younger players and eventually let loose in a similar manner to what happened to Albert Pujols last year? Or at least nudged into the type of bench role that Pujols settled into with the Dodgers? Cabrera is sitting on 2,987 hits and will surely be given the chance to cross the monumental 3,000 barrier, but at a certain point, the team’s desire to compete will clash with their desire for Cabrera to get the proper legacy treatment.

Regardless of how it plays out, the future seems bright for the Tigers. They have a roster with heaps of young talent that showed signs of promise in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Since then, they’ve added Baez,  Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart to try and take them to the next level. With prospects like Torkelson, Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler on the way to help as well, they seem poised to be a fun and competitive team for years to come.

Trade Candidate: Max Kepler

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Despite a thoroughly disappointing 73-89 season in 2021, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made things clear back in July — the Twins were planning to reload for 2022, not rebuild.  It wasn’t at all a far-fetched expectation, given how Minnesota won the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020, and still had several members of the big-hitting “Bomba Squad” core in place.

In regards to Max Kepler, however, the question heading into next season is whether or not the Twins truly consider him part of that core.  If the answer is no, Kepler stands out as an intriguing trade chip.

An international signing out of Germany in 2009, the Berlin-born Kepler began his pro career at age 17 and slowly made his way up the Twins’ organizational ladder, earning top-60 prospect attention heading into the 2016 season.  That was Kepler’s first year as a big league regular, and he quickly installed himself as Minnesota’s everyday right fielder.  Through three seasons of slightly below-average offense but 56 home runs and solid fielding, the Twins felt comfortable enough to lock Kepler up on a five-year, $35MM extension that also carries a $10MM club option for 2024 (with a $1MM buyout).

That extension started to look like a great move when Kepler delivered 36 homers and a .252/.336/.519 slash line over 596 plate appearances in 2019, earning himself some down-ballot MVP attention for his role in the Twins’ division-winning campaign.  Since that apparent breakout year, however, Kepler’s production has largely fallen back to his 2016-18 form, with some troubling secondary numbers that don’t hint that a turn-around.

Just looking at Kepler’s 2021 Statcast profile, you might wonder…what troubling numbers?  After all, with all those above-average metrics and a .347 xwOBA that was well beyond his .309 wOBA, a case could be made that Kepler was one of last season’s more unlucky players.  However, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noted last August, Kepler hits a lot of pop-ups, a lot of grounders, and is an extreme pull hitter.  As a result, the last two seasons have seen opposing defenses play shifts against Kepler well over 90% of the time, thus keeping his bat largely in check and essentially neutralizing whatever gains he made in 2019.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Kepler has hit .216/.310/.420 with 28 homers over 686 PA, which translates to just about league-average offensive production (99 wRC+, 101 OPS+).  He did miss a little over a month of last season due to a hamstring strain and a case of COVID-19, so it is possible that he could rebound in 2022 with better health and more time to make adjustments against the shift.

As he enters his age-29 season, Kepler might also just be who he is at the plate, with only one true standout season out of his six full years in the majors.  This doesn’t mean he isn’t a useful player, of course, considering that Kepler offers solid speed and baserunning, some power, and a strong glove.  Since the start of the 2016 season, Kepler has +36 Defensive Runs Saved, a +7.2 UZR/150, and +39 Outs Above Average as a right fielder.

Even subtracting his 4.5 fWAR season from 2019 from the mix, Kepler has still been worth 8.2 fWAR over his other five seasons.  That’s not bad return on a relatively modest price tag, and even though Kepler will get more expensive in the latter years of his extension, he is owed only $16.25MM — $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023, plus the potential $1MM buyout of the club option for 2024.  With Buxton a constant injury risk, Kepler at least offers some stability within a Minnesota outfield that will feature two promising but unproven young players in top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in 2022.

Those are the solid arguments for keeping Kepler, and since the Twins do plan to contend next year, trading a cost-controlled veteran member of the lineup would seem like a bit of a surprise move on paper.  On the other hand, dealing Kepler for the right return could be the kind of creative pivot the Twins need to fix some of their other roster holes.

Many of the needs that existed for the Twins at the start of the offseason are still on the to-do list, as apart from extending Buxton and signing Dylan Bundy, it was a pretty quiet winter in the Twin Cities even before the lockout shut everything down.  With Minnesota looking to keep Jorge Polanco at second base, shortstop is still a need, and the Twins will need a lot more than just Bundy to help support a very inexperienced rotation.

Kepler wouldn’t be the first player to overhaul his swing and offensive approach later in his career, so if he can figure out a way to elevate the ball more often and beat the shift, he’ll suddenly be much more of a threat at the plate.  Given how regulating or even banning defensive shifts has been mentioned as a potential rule change by the league, the Twins might want to hang onto Kepler just in case there is some new edict announced to generate more action in the field of play.

As noted earlier, however, it is possible we’ve already seen Kepler’s offensive peak.  Moving him now might be an ideal way for the Twins to still capitalize on his value before any real decline begins.  If another team thinks they can fix Kepler, Minnesota might be willing to let them take him off their hands at the right price.

If being a cost-controlled veteran with a very good glove and at least an okay bat are reasons the Twins may want to keep Kepler, those same reasons would also make him attractive to other teams looking for outfield help.  The Yankees were one team known to be checking in on Kepler prior to the trade deadline, and other teams like the Padres, Guardians, White Sox, Phillies (would Bryce Harper embrace a move to left field?), Reds, Athletics, Red Sox, or Braves all make varying degrees of sense as a trade partner.

Minnesota might not been keen on moving Kepler within the AL Central, and teams like the Reds or A’s are more hypothetical fits since both teams have been mostly focused on cutting payroll this offseason.  As noted, though, Kepler isn’t very pricey, and neither the Reds or A’s have given up hope for contending in 2022 even while trying to trim the budget.  Since both Cincinnati and Oakland have the available pitching that the Twins would covet, some kind of a multi-player package might work — Kepler to the other team, a starting pitcher and perhaps another contract coming to Minnesota, and then some prospects on either side to even things out.

Taking on salary to accommodate a trade usually isn’t the Twins’ style, though it isn’t yet clear how much money the club might have available this winter.  The Twins’ interest in Robbie Ray did hint that they were at least willing to explore some bigger spending, and even hypothetically taking on some money (Shogo Akiyama? Stephen Piscotty?) from the Reds or A’s wouldn’t necessarily represent a huge outlay.

As good of a fit as someone like Kris Bryant might be in Minnesota’s outfield, that kind of big splash could still count as a surprise, so a Kepler replacement is more likely to be an outfielder on a one-year deal at a cheaper overall price than Kepler’s two remaining years.  Someone like Tommy Pham or Andrew McCutchen could theoretically match or better Kepler’s 2021 production, and such a right-handed bat would also make for a smoother fit in the Twins outfield, as Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are all left-handed hitters.  In terms of in-house righty bats, Brent Rooker is available for platoon duty, and top prospect Austin Martin is on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 if he performs well at Triple-A.

If 2021 was kind of a Murphy’s Law year for the Twins, the team might opt to mostly stand pat with their roster and see how things play out early next season, just in case the situation naturally improves as players stay healthy or bounce back.  That said, such a strategy counts as a risk in an improving AL Central, so some boldness might be required to fix the problems the Twins know exist right now.  Even if trading Kepler might create another question in an outfield already lacking certainty, if Minnesota doesn’t see him as a building block beyond the end of his contract, a trade might be a wiser way for the Twins to bring more answers to their roster as a whole.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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Simply put: The Tigers are on the rise. They are going to be a popular pick to jump into the field of contenders in 2022 – and for good reason. Though a 77-85 record might not look like a team on the rise, they started the year with an 8-19 month of April and looked downright respectable the rest of the way. Following that disastrous first month, they went 69-66, finishing with their best record since 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

 

The Tigers were one of the game’s most active teams in free agency prior to the lockout. With very little long-term money on the books, and a totally clean ledger after 2023, the Tigers had the leeway and the inclination to add premier talent this winter. Though many expected the Tigers to make a play to reunite Carlos Correa and his former manager A.J. Hinch, the Tigers chose to spread their money around instead.

Javier Baez isn’t the talent that Correa is, but he’s still a monster upgrade over Niko Goodrum, who was designated for assignment and released to free agency. Baez will stabilize the infield defense and provide a fairly significant safety blanket for Detroit’s young starting staff. He’s a mixed bag at the plate,  but he’s coming off a 116 wRC+ season, and if nothing else, he’s an entertainment machine. Even his glove is a little more erratic than his supporters would like to admit, but the Bengals can content themselves with knowing they had more or less a clean slate financially and a massive hole to fill at short.

Shortstop was their biggest hole to fill coming into the offseason, but GM Al Avila made positive headway in filling out the rest of the roster as well. Tucker Barnhart was losing his starting job in Cincinnati, but that’s largely because of Tyler Stephenson’s offensive upside. Barnhart will set up camp near the bottom of the batting order, and he’s likely to stay there, but that’s not why the Tigers took on the $7.5MM he’ll be owed in 2022. Detroit’s young starting staff could use a veteran hand to guide their pitch selection and game management, and Barnhart’s reputation suggests he’s exactly the guy to do it.

Baez and Barnhart together ought to help create an ecosystem more conducive to run prevention, thereby either increasing the likelihood for success or hurrying the development for Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. That was likely Detroit’s number one goal this offseason.

Eduardo Rodriguez is another piece of that new-and-improved ecosystem. He steps in for Matthew Boyd and ought to provide consistency to their young rotation. E-Rod’s 4.74 ERA last season is a tad misleading as a .363 BABIP helped bloat the bottom-line run prevention numbers. ERA indicators were more complimentary: 3.32 FIP, 3.65 SIERA were both career-best numbers.

Beyond veteran savvy and life experience, Rodriguez gives the Tigers an innings-eater like their rotation hasn’t had in recent years. His 157 2/3 innings would have led the Tigers, who only had Mize and Skubal finish anywhere near the 150-inning mark. Boyd was solid in his 15 starts, posting 1.4 fWAR and a 3.89 ERA/4.10 FIP, but the Tigers likely figure that E-Rod gives them a better chance of hitting those marks over a full slate. Besides, winning breeds winners, and bringing in someone like Rodriguez can help transform the clubhouse culture into one that expects W’s.

Rodriguez helps, but if the Tigers are truly going to make the leap, it will likely be because Mike, Skubal, and Manning continue their development. Mize made 30 starts but racked up just 1.3 fWAR, in part because he didn’t show much of a propensity for missing bats. Skubal boasted swing-and-miss stuff, but the southpaw was prone to giving up long balls. If Mize, Manning, and Skubal grow up this season, the Tigers will feel pretty good about their run prevention potential. In a nutshell, that’s the biggest what-if of the Tigers’ 2022 season.

The Rodriguez addition was all the more important because Spencer Turnbull remains out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Turnbull appeared to be on the verge of a breakout, but now they’re in wait-and-see mode. The same for Barnhart and Jake Rogers behind the plate.

Tyler Alexander lines up as the fifth starter for now, but the Tigers are likely to explore more starting options when the lockout ends. Rodriguez will more than likely end up as their big-ticket signing on the pitching side, but there are still plenty of veteran rotation arms that can raise the floor of Detroit’s unit.

The bullpen is another area where the Tigers will explore additions after the lockout. Michael Fulmer emerged as a weapon, saving 14 games and tossing 69 2/3 innings over 52 appearances (four starts). It’s a reinvention for Fulmer, but one that can greatly help the team. Beyond the saves, he also earned nine holds and proved himself an invaluable multi-inning firearm for manager A.J. Hinch.

Gregory Soto took on the more traditional closer’s role, but Hinch is not afraid to use the power lefty whenever he needs him most. Soto saved 18 games over 62 appearances with a 3.39 ERA/4.14 FIP. Hinch has also relied on Jose Cisnero out of the pen. The 32-year-old made 67 appearances and posted a 3.65 ERA/4.13 FIP over 61 2/3 innings.

Fulmer, Soto, and Cisnero give Avila a solid starting place when it comes to building out his bullpen, but they could use some more firepower. There are other arms in-house but expect the Tigers to put some work in here when the lockout ends. Bullpen arms might be more amenable to joining Detroit after the work that’s been put into the roster already.

Offensively, exciting times are ahead. The Detroit faithful have enjoyed the benchmark stage of Miguel Cabrera’s Hall of Fame career, even if the 38-year-old no longer slugs with the authority of his youth. He crossed the 500 home run threshold in 2021, and he’ll get to the 3,000 hit mark early in 2020.

Cabrera might be the best hitter of his generation, and in some ways, it’s been a blessing that the Tigers have been able to line up their rebuilding years with Cabrera’s decline, thereby allowing the organization the difficult decision of when to take Cabrera out of the lineup. Cabrera played in 130 games last year and 57 out of the 60 from 2020’s shortened season. I’d be surprised if he hits 130 games again in 2022, however, as the Tigers will likely start to be a little more judicious with his playing time as they make an earnest effort for contention.

It will be a handing-off-of-the-baton type of season for Cabrera and the Tigers, who together are likely to welcome the top two prospects in Detroit’s system up to the Majors in 2022. Spencer Torkelson is the most obvious side-by-side with Cabrera, as the former number one overall pick is a bat-first corner infield prospect who has a decent chance to end up as a designated hitter eventually. For now, he’ll play first base and only occasionally snipe DH at-bats from Cabrera.

Jeimer Candelario is the third piece of the corner infield puzzle, and he fits nicely between Cabrera and Torkelson as an in-his-prime switch-hitter who only recently locked in his spot on the roster. He’s long been the Tigers third baseman, but for years it seems the former Cubs farmhand was just a placeholder.

Then 2020 happend. Candelario blasted off to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in the shortened season, and while he didn’t continue at that rate last season, he remained solidly above average, posting 3.2 fWAR and a 118 wRC+. He’s still subpar as a defensive third baseman, but now he’ll have Baez flanking him at short, which should help. Candelario and Baez actually began their professional careers together in rookie ball with the Cubs, though Baez rose quickly trough the system, while Candelario was eventually shipped to Detroit with Isaac Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.

Candelario’s long-term future is unclear, but he’s under team control for 2022 and 2023, so it seems likely he’ll stay at the hot corner for now. If Detroit falls out of the race, the Tigers could explore using Candelario as a trade piece. For now, however, his well-rounded bat is a nice cog in Detroit’s lineup. He may not excel in any one area, but he has average power (.172 ISO), a decent eye (10.4 percent walk rate), and the ability to put the ball in play (21.6 percent strikeout rate) together make up an above-average hitter.

Jonathan Schoop fits a similar mold, but with a more eager approach at the plate. Schoop doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s a legitimate plus against lefties and can hold his own otherwise. Schoop may lose some playing time as Torkelson arrives, but like Candelario, he’s a cog in a rapidly improving machine.

Robbie Grossman: same same. Grossman does everything relatively well, but an elite approach at the plate can make him even more valuable. Grossman keeps the line moving, puts up professional at-bats, and he takes his walks (14.6 percent walk rate).

All in all, the Tigers boast a working-class group of veteran bats that should prop up the baseline and give Torkelson and other young players a little bit of extra runway to find their stride.

The key player may be Riley Greene. If he can stick it in center, that will fill another huge hole in Detroit’s lineup. It’s not easy to find a centerfielder these days, making his development all the more key. Of course, Akil Baddoo may have beat him to the punch. Hinch protected the Rule 5 pick with match-ups in 2021, and it more-or-less worked (108 wRC+). Baddoo’s torching hot start did eventually cool off, but he still finished the year looking promising enough for the Tigers to give him more run in 2022.

Where they might yet add to the offense is with another corner outfielder. Baddoo can play some center along with Victor Reyes, and there are still bats out there that could fit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. Neither Baddoo nor Reyes needs to be guaranteed a starting spot. Given the contract that they reportedly offered to Carlos Correa, the Tigers still likely have some financial flexibility, should they choose to flex it.

The Tigers have patiently waited out their rebuild, but we know from their history that when the time comes, they are willing to spend. That doesn’t mean that they’re ready to spend it all this offseason, however, so their work could mostly be done. They’ve already made significant additions to the team. They aren’t done, but it’s certainly possible that any bullpen arms, starters, or extra bats they sign will slot in below the players already added, both in a financial and potential impact sense.

Then again, the Tigers have been aggressive. When the crossbar raises and GMs are set loose to sign free agents again, don’t be shocked to see Detroit hit the ground running. Big names have and are coming through the minor league system, but it’s not the deepest farm in the league, so if Detroit wants to make sure they meet expectations and become the cinderella darling of 2022, we might see more free agents changing their address to Motor City.

The Many Paths Ahead Of Andrew Benintendi

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2018 was a tremendous season for Andrew Benintendi.  The outfielder hit 16 home runs, stole 21 bases and slashed .290/.366/.465. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than league average, coming in at 10.7% and 16%, respectively. His wRC+ was 123 and he was worth 4.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He was part of an utterly dominant Red Sox team that went 108-54 in the regular season and then cruised to a World Series title by going 11-3 in the postseason. To top it all off, that was just his age-23 season, suggesting that there was still time for him to soar to even greater heights.

Unfortunately, things have gone in the opposite direction since then, with his numbers slipping slightly from the heights of 2018. The following year, he hit 13 homers, stole 10 bases and slashed .266/.343/.431, for a wRC+ of 100 and 2.0 fWAR. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was especially short for Benintendi, as a ribcage strain limited him to just 14 games. After a trade to the Royals, his 2021 season saw him bounce back to roughly his 2019 level of production. He hit 17 dingers, stole 8 bags and hit .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 106 and 2.1 fWAR. That means that Benintendi has now played four full seasons, with three of them being solid campaigns of either 2.0 or 2.1 fWAR, as he also produced 2.0 fWAR in 2017.

Now Benintendi is entering his final year before reaching free agency, assuming the new CBA doesn’t drastically alter the previous service time structure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected he’ll earn a salary of $9.3MM via arbitration. He’ll be playing for a Royals team with an uncertain short-term outlook, as their attempt to emerge out of rebuilding in 2021 came up short. They went 74-88, finishing 19 games behind the White Sox in the Central and just one game ahead of the basement-dwelling Twins. It was a relatively quiet pre-lockout offseason for them, as their biggest move so far was signing Taylor Clarke to a deal for less than $1MM. They should be able to improve by virtue of their young players continuing to develop, but it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in what could be Benintendi’s final year with the team. That leaves a wide variety of potential outcomes for him in the coming year.

If the Royals want Benintendi to stick around as they open a new competitive window, they could always offer him an extension, as they did with Michael A. Taylor in September. Taylor was headed into free agency in about a month, but agreed to a two-year extension that will keep him in KC through 2023. However, Benintendi will likely require a lengthier commitment than that, given that he is more than three years younger than Taylor and comes with a higher ceiling.

Benintendi is currently slated to reach free agency as a 28-year-old, similar to Kyle Schwarber, who was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $70MM over four years. They don’t produce in the same way, as Schwarber typically hits more but without much defensive contribution. However, they are still fairly analogous in terms of overall production. Over the past five years, Schwarber’s 10.8 fWAR in 593 games just barely eclipses Benintendi’s 10.1 fWAR in 585 games.

It would be something of a surprise for the Royals to give out an extension in that ballpark to Benintendi, as it would be fairly close to the four-year, $82MM extension they gave to Salvador Perez a year ago. Having close to $40MM committed to just two players would be a risky maneuver for a team that’s only rarely run a payroll over $100MM.

There’s also the possibility that Benintendi’s job in the outfield gets filled internally in the next year. The club currently has an infield mix that includes Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and Hunter Dozier, with prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto likely to debut in 2022. That crowded mix could lead to Merrifield and Dozier getting pushed to the outfield, alongside Taylor, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares. Considering all those options, perhaps they’d think it best to spend their money elsewhere.

With just one year of club control remaining, Benintendi will be a logical trade candidate if the Royals struggle to compete again in 2022. With the aforementioned glut of position players, the outfield could be covered by Taylor, Isbel, Merrifield, Dozier and Olivares after his departure. If Benintendi is having another season similar to what he did in 2017, 2019 and 2021, he should garner plenty of interest at the deadline, especially given that his affordable salary will be even less onerous by midseason. If he can go a notch higher and start to resemble his 2018 production, even better.

There’s also the chance that the Royals are able to take a step forward and get into the postseason mix, especially considering that the new CBA is expected to include an expanded postseason. A player like Benintendi could certainly be useful in a postseason chase, especially given his experience. If he were to stick on the Royals roster until the end of 2022 season, there’s a chance he could be a candidate for a qualifying offer, depending on how his season went. A one-year contract around $19MM or so could perhaps be a bit high for a 2-win player, but Benintendi has shown he is capable of more. Considering he will be hitting free agency at a young age, he would likely be inclined to turn down the QO and try to secure himself a long-term deal. Of course, that’s dependent on a healthy and productive season in 2022.

However, there is also the great unknown of the next CBA. There’s a chance that the qualifying offer system is scrapped or somehow altered in a way that would change all of these calculations for Benintendi and the Royals. There’s also the chance that Benintendi’s free agency trajectory is altered by the new CBA. It was reported back in August that one of the proposals made by MLB involved altering the free agency rules to be based on age instead of service time. Under this proposed structure, players would reach free agency at age 29 1/2, as opposed to the previous system of accruing six years of service time. Benintendi was born July 6th, 1994, meaning he wouldn’t reach 29 1/2 years of age until 2024. (July 1st was proposed as the cutoff date, meaning Benintendi would just miss.) The MLBPA reportedly wanted nothing to do with this proposal, but the course of the negotiations is difficult to predict at the moment. In a prolonged standoff, resolution will likely require a bit of compromise on both sides. It’s impossible to know which items will wind up back on the table as part of a larger deal.

There are a great many unknowns for baseball in 2022. We don’t know when the lockout will end, if a full season will be played or what the rules will be. For Benintendi and the Royals, there are even more questions remaining to be answered.

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