MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Braun, Familia, Hernandez, LeMahieu, Zunino

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 21st-July 22nd)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Cespedes, Fulmer, Machado, Mazara, Strasburg

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 16th-July 20th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Top 75 MLB Trade Candidates At The All-Star Break

This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

One significant name is now off the board as we originally compiled it, as the Nationals landed Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. It has been fairly quiet on the trade front since, with the exception of the Red Sox’ acquisition of Steve Pearce, though plenty of other notable developments have occurred as well.

Here’s the updated ranking as we prepare for tonight’s All-Star Game:

1. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (LR: 1): All indications are that Machado will be gone before play resumes after the All-Star break. While it will hurt to part with young talent to land a player who’ll reach the open market at season’s end, Machado promises to be a massive upgrade for whatever contender gets him.

2. Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets (LR: NR): At the time of the first iteration of this list, the Mets were still hanging around in the NL East. Not so much anymore. Familia is the best rental reliever available at this point. Though he may not quite be operating at peak capacity — his 12.0% swinging-strike and 50.5% groundball rates are down from his peak levels, though he’s throwing about as hard as usual — Familia carries a 2.88 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and has shown he’s healthy after an injury-and-suspension-marred 2017 season. He’s earning $7.9MM this year, a manageable enough sum for an established late-inning reliever, and was excellent during the Mets’ 2015 postseason run (though things didn’t go quite as well in the ensuing season’s Wild Card game).

3. Zach Britton, RP, Orioles (LR: INJ): The southpaw really didn’t figure to land this high on the list, but recent developments have knocked down other candidates and he seems to be working out the kinks, with improved results and increased velocity of late. There are also loads of reports on interest, so it’s all but certain he’ll be dealt. Britton is still just 15 games into his return from Achilles surgery, of course, and dealt with elbow/forearm troubles last year. But the Britton of old was one of the game’s best relievers and he has certainly shown some eyebrow-raising signs of late, including increasing fastball velocity and a swinging-strike rate that is up to 14.5% for the year. He’s earning a $12MM salary this year, which will also serve to impact his market and the O’s potential return.

4. Wilson Ramos, C, Rays (LR: 6): While the Rays are playing well, the postseason outlook remains bleak and Ramos is a high-performing, highly compensated player. With some clear potential demand behind the dish for multiple contending organizations, a trade seems inevitable. Unfortunately, Ramos is also now dealing with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. We’ll keep him on the list despite the likelihood of a coming DL placement, since the length of said DL stint isn’t known and he may be moved regardless, but it’s hardly great news given his history of leg issues.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (LR: NR): The switch-hitting Cabrera has been a consistently strong offensive producer since coming to the Mets. He’s showing more power than ever before at the moment, with 17 home runs and a .215 isolated slugging mark. Cabrera could be tasked with playing at second or third, though metrics have not smiled upon his glovework. With Jed Lowrie set to stay in Oakland, the Mets should receive some added interest in Cabrera.

6-10. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, Rangers; Tyson Ross, Padres; Matt Harvey, Reds; Nathan Eovaldi, Rays, SP (LR: 3, 4, 7, 27, INJ): The market for pitching rentals has not looked stellar of late, to say the least. There are two rising pitchers here, Harvey and Eovaldi, but both come with long-term injury questions and their share of short-term performance inconsistencies. Since a brutal start to the season, Harvey’s velocity has stayed up, and he’s getting more and more whiffs with his slider. He has allowed just five earned runs over his past four starts, and while he’s hardly the ace he was early in his Mets career, he’s a near-lock to be traded in the next two weeks. Eovaldi is throwing about as hard as ever, getting more swings and misses than ever, and drawing grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. He’s also continuing to exhibit the home run problems he had in 2016 and was just shelled (eight earned runs, one strikeout, 2 2/3 innings) in his most recent outing. Meanwhile, recent developments have not helped the value of Happ and Hamels, who we have discussed extensively in recent weeks. Both veteran southpaws entered the break with ERAs in the 4.3 range following three consecutive rough outings. Ross also had a pair of messy starts after carrying a 3.32 ERA through the end of June, with his velocity also trending down. But he showed much better against a tough Dodgers lineup in his most recent appearance. In all of these cases, contending teams will surely be watching the next few starts quite closely.

11. Mike Moustakas, Royals, 3B (LR: 5): Moustakas has been trending in the wrong direction since last we looked, but he’s a known commodity with good power and he remains a reasonably affordable option at the hot corner.

12. Joakim Soria, White Sox, RP (LR: 12): Soria recently saw an end to a string of 18-straight scoreless appearances. He’s earning $9MM this year, with a $1MM buyout on a 10MM mutual option for 2019. With a 2.75 ERA and 11.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9 on the year — buttressed by a career-high 14.7% swinging-strike rate — Soria looks to be quite a worthwhile target.

13-15. Brad Hand, Padres; Raisel Iglesias, Reds; Felipe Vazquez, Pirates, RP (LR: 8, 9, NR): Vazquez joins the list as the Bucs have faded. This trio represents the field of conceivably available, controllable, high-quality closers. There’s no real reason to think that these hurlers’ respective teams are particularly inclined to deal them, but the deadline is often an optimal time to move relievers and it’s generally easier to imagine one of these pitchers changing hands than a similarly affordable/controllable starter or position player.

16. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins (LR: 10): If the Marlins were more clearly interested in continuing their sell-off, Realmuto would rank higher — probably in the top two to three spots on this list. As it stands, the hints are that the 27-year-old won’t be dealt barring an overwhelming return. Will another team step up? Thee possibility of adding Realmuto down the stretch, and for two more affordable seasons, is awfully tantalizing after watching him race out to a .310/.365/.536 slash with a dozen home runs in 303 plate appearances to open the season.

17. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets (LR: NR): The star righty is firing on all cylinders right now. His two future seasons of arb control are immensely valuable to the Mets, but most of the other top starters that could conceivably be dealt have even more cheap years of control remaining. If a contender is going to line up a monumental offer for a starter, deGrom seems like the clear target. While the likelihood of a deal still seems on the low side, the lack of top-end rental-starter talent should not be overlooked as a factor in driving interest. Given deGrom’s sheer excellence for a lost Mets team, he warrants a fairly lofty spot on this list.

18-21. Eduardo Escobar, INF; Brian Dozier, 2B; Fernando Rodney, RP; Zach Duke, RP, Twins (LR: NR): This group of trade chips may not quite yet be available, given that a nice run has put the Twins back within plausible striking distance in the AL Central. That’s not to say, though, that the organization isn’t readying for a sale, in which case all could well be on the move. Escobar can play short, but hasn’t really been trusted there much of late. He is, however, doing more than ever before with the bat. The same can’t be said of Dozier, but he is starting to turn things on and is a productive all-around player even if he’s not hitting at the levels he did in the prior two campaigns. As for Rodney, the experience has been a good one thus far for Minnesota, which signed him to a $4.5MM deal that also includes some incentives and a 2019 option. Though he’s not a pure rental, the 41-year-old figures to be as available as any other Twins relievers. In 34 1/3 innings this year, the closer-for-hire — he has appeared with nine teams in his career and recorded saves for eight of them — owns a 3.12 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Meanwhile, Duke has reversed a tough 2017 showing and then some. He has dominated lefties and turned in passable-enough results against righties. Overall, he’s back to producing good strikeout rates (9.3 per nine) with excellent groundball rates (59.4%). Plus, he’s earning just $2.15MM this year plus some reasonably priced appearance-based incentives.

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All-Star Roster Breakdown

The 2018 All-Star teams are set and ready to face off today in Washington D.C. You can see the full rosters at Roster Resource (American League and National League), as well as a list of notable All-Star snubs.

Here is a breakdown of each All-Star roster, including the nine players who will not play due to injury or because they pitched on Sunday.

[Related: MLB Depth Charts]

AMERICAN LEAGUE (37)

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE (36)

 

MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Cole, Pillar, Rodriguez, Samardzija, Vizcaino

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 14th-July 15th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • CLEVELAND INDIANS Depth Chart
    • Promoted: C/OF Francisco Mejia
      • Mejia was the DH and batted 6th on Saturday. He was optioned back to Triple-A after Sunday’s game.
    • Optioned: SP Shane Bieber

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Benintendi, Paxton, Pujols, Realmuto, Syndergaard

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 12th-July 13th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Bryant, Giles, Kennedy, Velasquez

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 11th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Roster Roundup: Doolittle, Garcia, Hernandez, Puig, Tanaka

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 9th-July 10th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • HOUSTON ASTROS Depth Chart
    • Placed on Bereavement List: SP Gerrit Cole
      • Cole is expected to return for his next scheduled start on Saturday.
    • Promoted: OF Jake Marisnick
      • Marisnick played CF and batted 9th on Tuesday.

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Exploring The Value Of Rental Players As A Group

The hottest name on this year’s trade market, as expected, has been Orioles shortstop Manny Machado. Seven teams have reportedly made official offers for the young superstar, and at this point it appears as though the Brewers and Dodgers are the frontrunners for his services, with the Indians also in the mix. And though it’s not immediately clear what any of those teams offered, I expect that if Machado is traded by himself, the return will be less than inspiring.

At last season’s trade deadline, the Tigers traded one of the top power hitters in the game in J.D. Martinez. The prospects given up by the Diamondbacks in exchange were Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. If none of those players sound familiar to you, it’s probably because they weren’t interesting enough at the time for you to remember their names. After all, none of them ranked among the Tigers’ top ten prospects upon entering their weak farm system (Lugo ranks highest among those players at present, checking in at #12), and certainly none of the three were brought up in public trade speculation surrounding Martinez.

There’s more a big disclaimer here. First, many teams don’t pay attention to public top prospect lists; they have access to far more player data, so they’re almost certainly assessing player value more accurately than publications like MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. For all we know, Lugo could rank among Detroit’s top 150 favorite minor-leaguers in the game. Still, on the surface, none of the three prospects had ever done anything particularly remarkable, and the fact that the Diamondbacks landed one of the best power hitters in MLB without giving up any marquee players came as a surprise to many.

One possible contributor to this is the talent gap between MLB teams. Prior to the deadline last season, an extraordinary number of teams were already out of the playoff race. This season’s even more extreme in that regard; the Indians already own a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AL Central, and it’s become clear that no AL East team outside of the Yankees and Red Sox has any chance of making the playoffs at all. Even in the AL West, only the Astros, Mariners and Athletics can feasibly be considered contenders at all at this point, with the Angels perhaps having an outside shot if they can get healthy. Los Angeles aside, though, there would appear to be just six AL teams competing for five playoff spots down the stretch, and even the Athletics’ chances are suspect.

Even in the National League, many teams are starting to pull ahead of the pack, setting up a landscape with less mystery surrounding playoff probables than in seasons past. And if these teams have less competition, they also face less of an urgency to acquire impact pieces prior to the trade deadline. The Indians, specifically, are in a division with four teams likely to be sellers (the Royals, in fact, already started, receiving a weak return for Kelvin Herrera). Why should they give up any significant future value for a player like Machado, who they’ll only benefit from during the playoffs? Why should the Red Sox trade from their thin farm system when at the very least they’ll probably have home field advantage in the Wild Card game either way?

If those teams (who both have holes in the infield to some extent) probably don’t feel the urgency necessary to spend big (in terms of prospects) on a player like Machado, it could take yet another two bidders out of an already-weak bidding war. Thus, the laws of supply and demand are likely to drive down the value of any player who would become a free agent at the end of the season.

My overall point is that, in an MLB climate where divisions are so lopsided, any rental player this season is unlikely to command the type of return he might have in another era. That doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of activity involving these players, but logic tells me that an anxious bidding war for these rentals, the kind of competition that would yield an impressive return value, is unlikely to develop. It will surely be interesting to track players these players and see just how this storyline progresses.

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