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Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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After a 78-84 finish to their 2017 season, the Rangers came out of the gates in aggressive fashion but ultimately wound up with a series of low-risk, buy-low pickups that leave the club in limbo.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Rangers entered the 2017-18 offseason with holes up and down their roster –particularly on the pitching staff — and a sizable gap between their overall talent level and that of the division-winning, World Series champion Astros. Rather than spend aggressively in what could largely have been a futile effort to return to the top of the AL West, Texas instead spread out a modest array of investments across multiple budget-friendly assets.

Mike Minor was the lone big-ticket item signed by GM Jon Daniels & Co. — if one can refer to a $28MM guarantee as “big ticket.” (Although, certainly this offseason, that was no small amount as clubs veered away from free agency at unprecedented rates.) Minor shined as a dominant reliever in the Kansas City bullpen last season, but the Rangers are plugging him into their rotation to see if he can sustain some of that magic in the larger role that originally got him to the Majors with Atlanta. If the experiment doesn’t pan out, then the three-year, $28MM term isn’t exactly a bargain for a reliever, but it’s also more or less commensurate with the going rate for top-notch setup men in 2018.

Doug Fister and Matt Moore were the other primary additions to the starting mix, as the Rangers will be paying that duo a combined $13MM in hopes of receiving something resembling 25 to 33 serviceable starts out of each. Moore is coming off far and away the worst season of his career, while Fister posted an ugly 2017 ERA but more intriguing secondary metrics thanks in large part to some restored velocity. They’ll be part of a patchwork rotation in Arlington that is fronted by 34-year-old Cole Hamels and also includes southpaw Martin Perez. The addition of veterans like Colon and Chavez were made in the name of creating some depth, but it was clear to see even before a tough start to the season that this piecemeal approach to the staff could be problematic.

Of course, that’s not to say that the Rangers didn’t pursue more meaningful rotation upgrades. Texas was one of seven finalists in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. They not only came up short, though, but also had to suffer the additional frustration of watching the 23-year-old sensation sign with the division-rival Angels. Texas also remained on the periphery of the Yu Darvish market all offseason long, though it seemed clear for the bulk of his free agency that the Rangers would only bring him back at a discounted rate as they sought to scale back the payroll.

Texas has had good success in the past in tapping into the NPB market, and their signing of righty Chris Martin to a two-year big league deal was the latest attempt to strike gold. Martin didn’t distinguish himself in his first few attempts at the big league level, but he was a dominant late-inning arm overseas. At a $2MM annual rate, if he’s even a serviceable middle reliever, the Rangers will come out ahead. If he’s anything more, it’s a massive bargain, and if not, there’s little fiscal risk at play here. The reunion with Barnette and the roll of the dice on Lincecum give skipper Jeff Banister another pair of arms to shuffle around the late-inning mix, provided Lincecum builds up strength and overcomes the blister issue he’s currently facing.

Questions Remaining

As alluded to above, the pitching staff looked shaky, at best, heading into the 2018 season. Hamels’ velocity is down early in the year, while Fister is on the DL with what the club hopes will be a short-term injury. Even if all of Hamels, Perez, Fister, Minor and Moore were healthy, the Rangers would’ve needed some significant rebounds to field a competitive starting unit.

The fact that they’re being backed by a bullpen which cycled through four closers last season and struggled for much of the 2017 season doesn’t create much additional optimism. Granted, the Ranger relief corps will be significantly better in 2018 if Jake Diekman and Keone Kela can stay healthy, but Texas added nothing in the way of established bullpen help this winter. The Rangers will have to lean heavily on Kela, Diekman, Matt Bush and Alex Claudio. If any of that bunch falters and/or Martin can’t approach his NPB success to some extent, it could be a long year for the Texas bullpen.

The catcher position was also a question for Texas for much of the offseason and remains as such. Robinson Chirinos undeniably had a nice season last year when he hit .255/.350/.506 with a career-high 17 home runs, but he’s never tallied more than 338 plate appearances in a season. The 33-year-old has dealt with concussion, shoulder and forearm issues in previous seasons. Backup Juan Centeno has never reached 200 PAs in a season and has only logged more than 10 MLB games in a season twice. Texas seemed like a logical fit for a backstop like Alex Avila or Chris Iannetta, who each signed for about $4MM annually, but they passed to stick with in-house options and dealt away one minor league depth piece (Brett Nicholas) shortly after Opening Day.

With Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre lined up around the infield and Jurickson Profar on hand as a utility option, the Rangers looked to be set there. (The depth will now be tested after early-season injuries to Odor and Andrus.) The outfield, though, was perhaps a different story, but the Rangers elected to primarily stick with in-house options. Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo, Ryan Rua and Willie Calhoun were expected to be leaned upon heavily in the outfield/DH carousel, with Drew Robinson and the aforementioned Rule 5 pickup, Tocci, serving as additional depth. Mazara’s ceiling is enormous, but there again seemed to be an opportunity to capitalize on a stagnant market for outfielders which the Rangers forewent. Choosing not to break the bank is understandable, but it was a bit of a surprise to see players such as Jon Jay and Carlos Gomez come off the board for just $3MM and $4MM, respectively, when so many teams, the Rangers included, seemed like clear fits.

That’s perhaps the most glaring oddity of the entire offseason for the Rangers. While they elected to patch together a pitching staff of buy-low candidates and spare-part depth options, Texas decision-makers wholly avoided making any meaningful additions on the position-player side of the equation despite some fairly evident openings to do so behind the plate and in the outfield.

It’d be one thing to see the Rangers sit out in terms of additions if they were among the league’s many tanking teams, but they still spent nearly $40MM on the pitching staff. If the goal was to try to piece together a team with a chance at contending in a stacked division, then why not take advantage of a buyers’ market for position players? And if the 2018 season is to be more of a transitional campaign in which the club aims to pare back its payroll, was a $28MM investment in Minor a shrewd move? It’s possible that Minor could lead a surprising pitching staff in Arlington or turn into an appealing trade asset if things go south for the rest of the roster, but the manner in which the Rangers approached the construction of their pitching staff and their lineup/bench seem to be somewhat contradictory in nature.

Texas looked like a plausible midseason seller even before the season began, but with a 4-10 start and several key injuries already having unfolded, those rumblings will only intensify. Any of the shorter-term pickups they made this offseason could become available if the Rangers are out of contention. The same is true of Hamels, though they may have a hard time acquiring much in return given his age, the $22MM he’s owed this season (plus at least the $6MM buyout he’s owed on next year’s $20MM option). The more interesting question, if Texas is out of the race, will be whether they send franchise icon and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre to another organization.

Overview

The Rangers came out of the gates in fairly aggressive fashion this offseason. Before the Winter Meetings had even kicked off, Texas had added some depth to the rotation by acquiring Herrera from the Yankees and quickly signing both Fister and Minor by Dec. 4. All of that, of course, coincided with a spirited pursuit of Ohtani that ultimately fell short, and the Rangers curbed their activity from that point forth.

Perhaps the offseason would’ve played out differently had Texas been able to add Ohtani to the mix, but in retrospect, the maneuverings add up to a fairly puzzling half-measure. Texas doesn’t look like a team that’s built to contend, but they also didn’t place an emphasis on restocking the farm this offseason. At a time when teams seem increasingly reluctant to be caught in the middle, the Rangers find themselves precisely there.

How would you rate their offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

How would you grade the Rangers' offseason?
D 37.70% (676 votes)
C 28.72% (515 votes)
F 25.49% (457 votes)
B 6.69% (120 votes)
A 1.39% (25 votes)
Total Votes: 1,793

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Eaton, Margot, Wheeler, Wieters

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 11th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • ST. LOUIS CARDINALS | Depth Chart
    • Suspended: C Yadier Molina (1-game suspension)
      • Molina served the suspension on Wednesday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Cueto, Morales, Odor, Rizzo

By | at

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 10th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

—

AMERICAN LEAGUE

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Bogaerts, Holland, Miller, Suarez

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 9th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • ST. LOUIS CARDINALS | Depth Chart 
    • Promoted: RP Greg Holland
      • After a disastrous debut on Monday (0.1 IP, ER, 4 BB, L; entered in the 10th inning of a 4-4 game), Holland will likely have to prove himself in a non-closer role before being handed the closer’s job.
    • Optioned: RP Mike Mayers

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Arrieta, Knebel, Sabathia, Yelich

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 6th thru April 8th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

 

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • CLEVELAND INDIANS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: OF Michael Brantley
      • Brantley played LF and batted 5th in his ’18 debut.
    • Optioned: OF Tyler Naquin (4/6)
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: OF Lonnie Chisenhall (strained calf)
    • Promoted: OF Tyler Naquin (4/8)
      • Naquin started in RF and batted 8th on Sunday.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Nationals 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Nationals Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Another great regular season, another postseason disappointment. The refrain is familiar at this point for the Nationals, though it’s also far from clear that there was any reason to waver from an approach that has delivered a steady stream of MLB talent since the organization’s breakout 2012 season.

The latest NLDS calamity did not lead to a roster shake-up, unsurprisingly, but it did result in wholesale change in the field leadership. A largely unexpected decision not to pursue a new contract with skipper Dusty Baker left the organization searching for a new manager and coaching staff. The Nationals ultimately settled on Davey Martinez — who, like several other recent hires, he has never before held that role. Among the rookie skippers, though, Martinez stands out for his ample experience on MLB coaching staffs — particularly, a long run alongside current Cubs and former Rays manager Joe Maddon.

Once Martinez was installed, the Nats did not have a lot of work to do over the winter. Veteran outfielder Jayson Werth wrapped up his contract, but there was no need to find a replacement with Adam Eaton returning from the knee injury that cost him most of the 2017 season, Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin coming off of productive campaigns, and top prospect Victor Robles waiting in the wings after briefly ascending to the bigs late last year.

Otherwise, the club saw a few role players hit the open market. The resulting openings were steadily addressed by free agent signings throughout the course of the winter.

The two most significant players to depart — mid-season acquisitions Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick — were both brought back, in fact, after successful showings in D.C. Kintzler, who makes up for his lack of strikeout prowess with loads of groundballs, will rejoin Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in a late-inning unit that the club lined up entirely via trade last summer. The price tag seems fairly appealing in comparison to the slightly loftier deals given to similarly useful relievers. Kendrick, too, was picked up for a low-AAV, two-year agreement. The sturdy veteran will help the team cover for the early-season absence of Daniel Murphy at second before sliding into a utility role.

Beyond those two spots, the most glaring holes were a lefty bench bat to replace Adam Lind and a second backstop to go with Matt Wieters, who exercised his player option after a poor first season in Washington.The club elected not to pursue a reunion with Lind, instead adding the younger Matt Adams. Much like his predecessor, Adams has never figured out left-handed pitching, but won’t be asked to do so in D.C. as he fulfills a supporting role to Ryan Zimmerman at first. Behind the dish, the Nationals picked up veteran Miguel Montero on a minors deal rather than striking a more significant acquisition.

Pitching depth was the last piece of the puzzle, with Matt Albers, Joe Blanton, and Oliver Perez all departing and the final rotation spot still up in the air. While there were whispers all along that the Nationals could use their remaining openings to fit a more significant acquisition — Jake Arrieta, Greg Holland, and any number of hypothetical trade candidates seemed intriguing — that never came to pass. Rather, the organization took something of a volume approach. Jeremy Hellickson signed a minors deal and will likely get a shot as the fifth starter if A.J. Cole stumbles. The aging but hard-throwing Joaquin Benoit got a small guarantee to fill out the pen, but will open the year on the DL. Plenty of other former MLB arms will populate the upper minors, including former Nats Edwin Jackson and Tom Milone along with Carlos Torres, Cesar Vargas, and Tim Collins.

But the Nats saved perhaps their most significant move for last. Just days into the 2018 season, the organization announced a long-anticipated new contract with president of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo. The agreement puts an end to any speculation that the ownership group might turn elsewhere. Despite Rizzo’s success in turning out a contending product, the organization’s handling of its managers had created a bit of uncertainty in Rizzo’s status. While it’s resolved for the time being, the deal only promises two more seasons, so questions could start up again sooner than later.

Questions Remaining

Ultimately, Rizzo took a fairly straightforward approach to filling out the roster this offseason. On the one hand, that’s largely to be expected given the state of affairs at its outset. On the other, perhaps it’s somewhat surprising that we weren’t surprised. Rizzo, after all, has engineered a string of moves over the years — including a variety of offseason signings (Werth, Jackson, Rafael Soriano, and Scherzer) and trades (Doug Fister, Trea Turner & Joe Ross, Eaton) — that were largely unanticipated before coming to fruition.

Given that history, and the run of playoff woes, a splash of some kind felt likely. While there’s still evidently no resolution to the team’s long-running TV rights fees dispute with the neighboring Orioles, that hasn’t stopped the organization from running one of the game’s highest payrolls. The Nationals are over the luxury tax line again (so there was no soft cap on spending) but are only slightly over the threshold at this point, so wouldn’t have incurred a huge tax bill with a major salary addition.

Though there’s ample talent on hand, the roster certainly isn’t without its question marks. Two key position players, Eaton and Murphy, are returning from significant leg surgeries. Zimmerman had a great bounceback 2017 effort but can’t be counted on to repeat it given that he’s now 33 and had struggled a fair bit (both with injuries and on the field) over the three prior campaigns. Turner wasn’t nearly as exciting in his sophomore effort, while some regression might be anticipated for Anthony Rendon after an MVP-caliber ’17 campaign. And it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Taylor and/or Goodwin stumble a bit — both have more than a little swing and miss in their games — though that’s the one place that there’s an obvious potential replacement (Robles) to be called upon.

That said, there really wasn’t much cause for the Nats to go out looking for upgrades in any of these situations. Behind the plate, though, it’s quite another matter. Matt Wieters struggled badly last year and ultimately opted in for another season at an unappealing rate of pay. Pedro Severino has long been considered ready defensively but has not made strides with the bat at Triple-A. While the organization brought in another veteran in Montero, there are obviously reasons — inability to control the running game and an awful second half at the plate — that he was available on a minors pact.

That unit seems unlikely to be terribly productive. While youngster Raudy Read touched the majors last year and might have become an option, he’s sitting out the first half of the year for a PED suspension. The Nats ultimately watched as a string of receivers — Welington Castillo, Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, and Jonathan Lucroy among them — sign for less than they’re paying Wieters. There was an effort to acquire J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins, who made all kinds of sense for the Nats, though it seems the Fish held to their lofty asking price and nothing got done.

The result is sub-optimal and could set the stage for a mid-season acquisition. Of course, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Nats end up pursuing a relief arm over the summer, as that has become an annual rite in D.C. and is fairly common for any contending team. The Nationals pen doesn’t seem to be a particularly compelling group, though there is a fair amount of depth and the three-man high-leverage unit is at least settled to open the year. An argument could have been made to pursue further relief additions, though the team chose a defensible course. It’ll have a few months to evaluate some of the interesting but inconsistent or not-yet-established arms in the stable.

Speaking of evaluating arms, that’ll also be the team’s preferred method of dealing with its fifth starter’s slot. Cole is first up, and he’ll need to make real strides after a putrid first outing on the year. If he doesn’t show quite a lot in short order, Hellickson will take the helm once he’s at full speed. With prospect Erick Fedde and some veteran depth options still also in the mix, the Nats ought to be able to get by well enough.

The overall rotation mix is still strong, led by two outstanding starters in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Then there’s Tanner Roark, who is a quality hurler. And let’s not look past Gio Gonzalez, whose volatile reputation is belied by his steady effectiveness. Last year’s 200-inning, sub-3.00 ERA output won’t likely be repeated, but Gonzalez has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s best starters for quite some time and is a solid bet to provide good innings.

Still, it feels as if there may have been an opportunity missed here. True, the Nats can still go get a premium starter at the deadline if they feel there’s a need. Like the catching position, though, the best time to find an upgrade might have been during the course of a strange free-agent market that left quite a few significant players earning less than had been anticipated. Waiting until the deadline is also something of a luxury reserved for teams that don’t face real competition within their division. After bringing in some veterans and enjoying good health all spring, the Mets seem to be revived and may well put up a greater fight than had been expected.

Overview

Adding quality veteran bench assets was both predictable and sensible. Those moves should help the Nats fill in for any major absences and help ensure that the team’s regulars get plenty of rest without a drop-off in play. But the winter effort somehow feels a bit incomplete.

After all, this is the club’s last season of control over star outfielder Bryce Harper. Unless there’s a well-guarded extension effort underway — as there was, successfully, for Strasburg — he’ll hit the open market at season’s end. While the Nats will be among the likeliest suitors for Harper, it’s far from certain he’ll be back.

It’s somewhat surprising, then, that the team didn’t find a way to make another big addition, whether in the rotation or, especially, behind the plate. Having already pushed past the luxury tax line, spending a big more wouldn’t have had any impact on future spending plans. And this organization has already shed a fair bit of young talent in recent years — pitchers, especially — while trying to build around its core. Spending cash seems generally preferable to coughing up trade capital over the summer, but the latter will be required if an impact move is needed.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Nationals' offseason?
C 41.32% (645 votes)
B 36.07% (563 votes)
D 10.95% (171 votes)
F 6.53% (102 votes)
A 5.12% (80 votes)
Total Votes: 1,561

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click hereto read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Twins had a quiet winter in the 2016-17 offseason under newly hired chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine, but Minnesota’s new executive duo was much more aggressive following last season’s surprise Wild Card berth.

Major League Signings

  • Addison Reed, RHP: Two years, $16.75MM
  • Lance Lynn, RHP: One year, $12MM
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: Two years, $10MM
  • Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: One year, $6.5MM (plus 2019 vesting option)
  • Fernando Rodney, RHP: One year, $4.5MM
  • Zach Duke, LHP: One year, $2.15MM
  • Anibal Sanchez, RHP: One year, $2.5MM (Sanchez’s salary was not guaranteed. The Twins released him and paid him $419K in termination pay in Spring Training upon signing Lynn)
  • Total spend: $52.3MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll]

Needs Addressed

The Twins boast a homegrown core of position players, with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco all being drafted/signed and developed by the organization and all under control for another four-plus seasons. With that group in place, plus veterans Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Jason Castro penciled into the lineup, the emphasis for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office was understandably on pitching.

In 2017, Twins starters collectively ranked 19th in the Majors with a 4.73 ERA, 23rd with a 4.85 FIP and 27th with a 4.92 xFIP. Equally damning, the Twins ranked 24th in baseball with 869 2/3 innings from their rotation despite the fact that Ervin Santana was one of just 15 pitchers to top 200 innings (and one of only two in all of baseball to top 210 frames). In fact, if you subtract the contributions of Santana and Jose Berrios from the 2017 Twins, their starters logged a disastrous 5.55 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has help on the near horizon in the form of top 100 prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, but as a club with postseason aspirations, they never seemed likely to rely solely on in-house options. Minnesota made a strong run at Yu Darvish, reportedly offering him a contract worth $100MM+ before he ultimately signed a six-year deal with the Cubs. It was apparent back in November that the Twins were poised to spend at a much more aggressive rate than we’ve historically seen, but it nonetheless felt a bit unusual to see them in the mix for the market’s top free agent right until the close of bidding.

A finger injury to Ervin Santana, which required surgery and will shelve him for at least the month of April, only exacerbated the club’s need to add arms to the rotation. Minnesota capitalized on the Rays’ need to cut payroll and a stagnant free-agent market to acquire Jake Odorizzi on the cheap and to sign Lance Lynn to a one-year, $12MM deal that seemed unthinkable just four months prior.

While both Odorizzi and Lynn are likely mid-rotation arms, at best, they’ll play a critical role in stabilizing the starting staff — especially now that Santana’s injury may sideline him longer than initially had been hoped. Odorizzi is controllable through the 2019 season, and while Lynn will presumably depart after his lone season in Minneapolis, he can potentially be replaced by Michael Pineda, whom the Twins guaranteed $10MM with an eye toward their 2019 rotation.

The bullpen, too, was in dire need of augmentation. Minnesota relievers ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.40 ERA last season and weren’t any better in terms of FIP (4.50, 23rd) or xFIP (4.49, 22nd). Beyond that, the departure of veteran Matt Belisle, who quietly rebounded from a dismal month of May to post terrific numbers down the stretch, only thinned out the relief unit.

Addison Reed looked poised to secure at least a three-year pact in free agency, but his market stalled a bit. While relievers were flying off the board and cashing in on significant annual paydays at the Winter Meetings — the relief market was the one facet of free agency that was mostly healthy this winter — Reed remained unsigned. Roughly a month later, he inked a surprising two-year deal with the Twins, though he’s openly acknowledged that geographic limitations impacted his market. Specifically, Reed had his sights set on signing with a team in the Midwest, he told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier last month.

The Twins also brought in a pair of veterans on affordable one-year deals, inking Fernando Rodney to serve as the closer and Zach Duke to help counteract opposing lefties. While Rodney had a characteristic up-and-down season with the D-backs last year, his velocity and ability to miss bats held strong. Bringing him in to work the ninth inning frees up the Twins to use their best relievers — Reed and 2017 breakout rookie Trevor Hildenberger — more flexibly in high-leverage setup spots.

Logan Morrison | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Despite a clear need for pitching, though, the Twins had one spot in their lineup that looked questionable. Minnesota designated hitters combined for just a .237/.328/.383 slash last season, and for much of the winter it looked as if OBP-challenged slugger Kennys Vargas and light-hitting on-base machine Robbie Grossman would receive the bulk of the duties there.

A match with Logan Morrison looked more and more like an on-paper fit as the slugger’s market failed to develop, though, and the Twins were able to scoop him up at a reasonable rate for the 2018 season. If Morrison can come anywhere close to last year’s .353 OBP and 38 homers, the Twins will be happy to see his $8MM option vest.

Questions Remaining

For as much as Minnesota accomplished this offseason, there are still plenty of questions surrounding the club. Odorizzi and Lynn are quality additions to the rotation at a reasonable price, but the starting unit as a whole still looks shaky — especially without Santana’s consistency. Jose Berrios tossed his first career shutout to kick off what the Twins hope will be a breakout season, but he’s the team’s best shot at having a true upper-echelon pitcher. If he takes only a small step forward (or worse), then the collection of Berrios, Odorizzi, Lynn, Kyle Gibson and (eventually) Santana looks more like a collection of fourth starters than a legitimately competitive playoff rotation.

Odorizzi and Lynn have been much more than that in the past, but both pitchers saw their walk and home-run rates spike last season. Fielding-independent pitching metrics pegged both Lynn and Odorizzi’s actual run-prevention skills more than a full run worse than their otherwise appealing ERA totals. The Twins have plenty of options in the upper minors, and perhaps Gonsalves, Romero or a sleeper prospect will burst onto the scene and strengthen the group. But as it stands, the rotation looks improved but hardly overpowering.

Minnesota also received a tough blow late in Spring Training with the news that starting shortstop Jorge Polanco tested positive for a PED and will miss the first half of the season while serving an 80-game suspension. The former top 100 prospect had a huge second half last season and was being counted on as a significant factor in the team’s lineup. Instead, utility man Eduardo Escobar will get the lion’s share of reps at short to begin the year. Escobar packs more punch than most utility options, but he’s struggled to remain consistent. Light-hitting defensive specialist Ehire Adrianza will receive more at-bats as well in Polanco’s absence.

Questions persist throughout the young core of position players as well, though that reportedly didn’t stop the team from trying (without success) to broker some extensions. Can Buxton hit like he did over the final four and a half months of the 2017 season and truly establish himself as one of the American League’s star players? Is Rosario capable of repeating his 2017 power surge? Will Kepler figure out how to hit left-handed pitching or is he primarily a platoon option with above-average glovework? There was a cloud hanging over Sano’s head all offseason in the wake of troubling assault allegations brought forth by a former Twins photographer, though MLB deemed that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to issue a suspension. He’ll now need to put that past him and remain healthy for a full season for the first time in his young big league career.

Perhaps the greatest question facing the Twins, though, is what will become of Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer following the ’18 season. Both are set to hit free agency, and Dozier in particular sounded frustrated by the team’s lack of engagement in extension talks. The former eighth-round pick has broken out as a legitimate star in recent seasons but somewhat bluntly told reporters that the team doesn’t seem especially interested in talking long-term. Whether that’s because of Dozier’s asking price or because Minnesota is wary of his age and prefers to turn the middle infield over to Polanco and top prospect Nick Gordon (and, eventually, 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis) isn’t clear. But Dozier has very arguably become the face of this franchise, and the lack of extension talks already didn’t sit well with fans. He’ll assuredly receive a qualifying offer if he posts a typical season, which he’ll almost certainly reject. The question then will become if the Twins are willing to match the top open-market bid he receives.

The decision on Mauer, who quietly had a strong rebound season in 2017, is also difficult. The 35-year-old won’t break the bank in free agency considering the devaluation of corner bats, his age and his strong preference to remain in Minnesota — where he was born, raised and starred in high school before being drafted first overall in 2001. But the Twins have to weigh whether they’re better off retaining Mauer into his late 30s, even if it’s at a limited rate of pay, or instead turning things over to a younger player — be it Morrison or perhaps Sano, following a shift across the diamond.

Perhaps Mauer would sign on for a part-time role, but teams are increasingly reluctant to dedicate bench spots to players who can only fill one position on the diamond. Mauer has briefly dabbled in the outfield in the past, but he certainly won’t return to catching following the concussion issues that prompted his initial move to first base.

Overview

While their pursuit of the biggest fish in the free-agent pond didn’t prove fruitful, the Twins capitalized on the weak market for free agents as well or better than any team in the league and entered the 2018 campaign with a considerably deeper roster. They’ll play more than 50 games against the trio of the Tigers, Royals and White Sox as they chase the Indians for the AL Central crown. The weakness of the division alone should help the Twins to remain in the Wild Card race, but they’ll need some big steps forward from the likes of Berrios, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Sano to be a legitimate division threat.

That’s certainly possible, and if any of that group falters or falls to injury, the Twins will likely have the capacity to further stretch payroll and bolster the roster midseason. Taking on longer-term deals won’t be a major issue, as their long-term payroll ledger is among the cleanest in baseball (zero dollars guaranteed beyond 2019). Paired with a quality farm system and the aforementioned young core, the Twins look poised to be contenders in the Central for the foreseeable future as several of their rivals rebuild.

How do you think the offseason went for Minnesota? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.) 

How would you grade the Twins' offseason?
A 48.65% (1,297 votes)
B 42.50% (1,133 votes)
C 5.70% (152 votes)
D 1.58% (42 votes)
F 1.58% (42 votes)
Total Votes: 2,666

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Though the rebuilding White Sox made bids for a few big name position players, they settled for a quiet offseason with a handful of veteran additions.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Despite entertaining several bold offseason moves, the White Sox ultimately focused on veteran placeholders in what ended up being a quiet offseason.  This serves as no surprise, with the team entering the second year of a rebuilding process.  The team’s signature offseason move was an upgrade at catcher with the signing of Welington Castillo in December.

Welington Castillo | Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

After deploying an inexperienced duo of Kevan Smith and Omar Narvaez behind the dish last year, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Castillo was imported on a two-year free agent contract.  Castillo, who started his career in the Cubs organization, adds pop to the lineup and a veteran presence for a rotation with three members under the age of 25 (in addition to several young arms looming in the upper minors).

In January, the Sox re-signed veteran starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez, who made 45 starts for them from 2016-17 until being dealt to the Rangers at the end of August.  Gonzalez’s job, much like fellow rotation-mate James Shields, is to take the ball every fifth day until he’s nudged out by top pitching prospect Michael Kopech.

Improving the team’s bullpen was a stated desire for White Sox GM Rick Hahn, and he accomplished this mainly through one January trade.  Surrendering minor league utility type Jake Peter, who had gone unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft, Hahn acquired Joakim Soria from the Royals and Luis Avilan from the Dodgers.  Both veterans slot in toward the back of Chicago’s bullpen, along with holdover Nate Jones, who opened the season healthy after undergoing nerve surgery in his pitching elbow last summer.  Hector Santiago, added on a minor league deal, also cracked the Opening Day bullpen.  Given last summer’s trades of David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, and Dan Jennings, the White Sox had to add a few veterans to the decimated ’pen.

Hahn also tinkered around the edges, adding outfielder Daniel Palka, shortstop Jose Rondon, and pitchers Thyago Vieira, Ricardo Pinto, and Jose Ruiz through trades and waiver claims.  All but Ruiz remain on the 40-man roster.  Pitchers Vieira and Pinto were acquired for international bonus pool space, which was of lesser value to the White Sox since they are in the $300K bonus pool penalty box for signing Luis Robert a year ago.  Vieira is a live arm who has touched 102 miles per hour, and he’ll eventually be joined at Triple-A Charlotte by Pinto, who is being stretched out as a starter.  Both 24-year-olds made their MLB debuts last season, and it’s possible that either or both could be up in the Majors with the Sox in 2018.

Questions Remaining

One big offseason question was whether the White Sox would trade first baseman Jose Abreu and/or right fielder Avisail Garcia.  Hahn has been clear that the club is constantly making an assessment of whether to extend or eventually trade the pair, and nothing has been settled in that regard.  Both are under control through 2019, but the 26-year-old Garcia may make more sense as a part of the next contending White Sox team than the 31-year-old Abreu.

Jose Abreu & Avisail Garcia | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Rumors suggested the Athletics, Giants, and Blue Jays were among those to check in on Garcia, while the Red Sox and others may have had dialogue regarding Abreu.  Given the stagnant free agent market for many veterans, it’s no surprise Hahn found trade offers unsatisfactory.  Still, with both players remaining on the South Side and no contract extensions in place, rumors figure to abound once again this summer as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches.

Hahn decided to go big game fishing around the Winter Meetings, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic describing the White Sox as the “most aggressive suitor” for Orioles shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado.  Though Rosenthal said the White Sox and Orioles “discussed a package for Machado that would include either right-hander Lucas Giolito or right-hander Michael Kopech but not both,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today described the offer as “solid,” but without any top prospects.

With Machado headed to free agency after the 2018 season, it would seem that Chicago’s interest was in signing him to a massive contract extension before he could reach the open market.  That was an unlikely proposition, and Machado stayed put.  But it does suggest that a team that has never given out a contract bigger than Abreu’s $68MM has at least considered extending an offer perhaps four times that size to the young superstar.  With 2019 payroll commitments of just $10.9MM in guaranteed contract, the White Sox could be a major player in the 2018-19 free agent market.  Their previous interest in Machado, at least, seems likely to once again resurface.

More sensible than Machado was Hahn’s pursuit of outfielder Christian Yelich.  The 26-year-old is under contract potentially through 2022, so the bulk of his control would have fallen within the White Sox’ targeted window of contention.  It appears some kind of offer was made to the Marlins for Yelich, but Miami instead accepted a package from the Brewers headlined by Lewis Brinson.  The White Sox also reportedly made some late effort to be opportunistic on Logan Morrison’s stagnant market, but he wound up with the Twins.

Despite an Opening Day payroll that settled in as the team’s lowest since 2004, the White Sox did not use their financial flexibility to purchase prospects by taking on bad contracts.  That’s perhaps not in the style of owner Jerry Reinsdorf, but it’s conceivable the White Sox could have taken on dead money for players like Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Matt Kemp, Rusney Castillo, or Yasmany Tomas and further bolstered their farm system.

Overview

Though they carry just a 69-win projection from FanGraphs, the White Sox look to be baseball’s most interesting rebuilding team.  While preseason projections inevitably come with great variability and the White Sox are loaded with upside, the South Siders would probably have to beat their forecast by about 17 wins to sneak into the playoffs as the AL’s second Wild Card.  Even Hahn recently said, “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us.”  I imagine Hahn and many White Sox fans are hoping the team can nonetheless arrive early, and start contending next year.

How would you grade the offseason for the ChiSox? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

How would you grade the White Sox' offseason?
B 36.44% (963 votes)
C 34.17% (903 votes)
A 12.30% (325 votes)
D 11.43% (302 votes)
F 5.68% (150 votes)
Total Votes: 2,643

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Conforto, Myers, Perez, Wainwright

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 4th – April 5th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

REHAB ASSIGNMENTS | Injury Report

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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