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Dodgers Notes: Martinez, Ohtani, Burnes, Heyward, Betts

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Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.

That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.

After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.

Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.

On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.

Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.

Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.

The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold On Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Counsell, Prospects

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Curt Hogg) for the season wrap-up press conference today, and addressing several major topics facing his team as the offseason begins.  One question left open was the status of Brandon Woodruff’s right shoulder, as Arnold said more will be known once Woodruff has another visit with doctors.

“He’s going to be looked at this week.  We’re optimistic,” Arnold said.  “We won’t know until the reports come out, but we’re going to wait until he gets another opinion on his shoulder at this point.”

Woodruff suffered a capsular injury to his throwing shoulder just prior to the start of the Brewers’ Wild Card Series with the Diamondbacks, and it was unclear if Woodruff would’ve been able to pitch during any part of a postseason run even if the Brew Crew had made it as far as the World Series.  Losing one of their top pitchers to injury proved to be a harbinger of bad news for Milwaukee, as the D’Backs swept the NL Central champions in two games.

Between this latest injury and the shoulder problems that caused Woodruff to miss four months of regular season action, it seems possible that surgery might be on the table as an option, which could threaten Woodruff’s availability for 2024.  It also adds another layer of intrigue to the longstanding expectation that at least one of Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, or Willy Adames could be traded.

The three players are entering their final year of arbitration eligibility and will be free agents next winter.  Given Milwaukee’s modest payroll, extending even one of the players might not be feasible, and keeping all three beyond 2024 seems out of the question barring a major change in the Brewers’ spending approach.

Arnold acknowledged this financial situation Tuesday, noting “We can never close the door on any [trade] conversations, as you guys know.  That’s just the reality of where we are.”  However, the GM unsurprisingly also didn’t tip his hand in forecasting any moves, saying “the short answer is that we’re extremely comfortable having” Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames on the roster.

“The foundation is that they’re here and they’re really good players,” Arnold said.  “Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an offseason.  We’ll certainly have to entertain a lot of different discussions but we recognize the value of these players and how much they mean to our franchise.”

Burnes in particular has seemed like the top trade candidate of the group ever since his disappointed reaction to his arbitration hearing back in February,  though Arnold stressed that Burnes “means a ton to what we’ve done here.  He’s been a warrior on the mound….We’ll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year.”

In terms of other winter priorities, the Brewers are hoping to boost offense, particularly at first and third base.  Acquiring Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the trade deadline helped solidify the first base spot down the stretch, though Santana is a free agent and Canha will hit the market as well if the Crew don’t exercise their $11.5MM club option on his services.  Arnold’s comments might imply that Canha and Santana could be let go if the Brewers want more pop out of the first base position, though Canha isn’t only a first baseman, as he can also play in either corner outfield spot.

Andruw Monasterio seems like a candidate to be a third-base regular since Arnold said the team “liked” his work at the hot corner, though the GM also cited top prospect Tyler Black as a candidate at either infield position, “potentially early on” in the season.  If Milwaukee is prepared to give Black a look out of Spring Training, that could mean the team might not pursue an everyday type of veteran corner infielder, in order to not block Black or Monasterio.

There weren’t any new updates on Craig Counsell’s status, as Arnold said management had yet to sit down with the skipper to discuss a new contract.  Counsell’s deal is officially up at the end of October, and he previously told owner Mark Attanasio that he wanted to wait until the season was over to explore an extension.  Given the October 31st expiry date on his current contract, the Brewers will have a few weeks of exclusive negotiating time to explore possibilities with Counsell, before becomes a free agent and open to pursuits from other teams — such as the Mets, who now have David Stearns as president of baseball operations and a managerial vacancy after firing Buck Showalter.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Stroman, Burnes, Wainwright

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As the trade deadline on August 1 creeps ever closer, the Cubs stand as one of a handful of teams that has yet to make a decision regarding whether they will be buyers or sellers this trade season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to 670 The Score on Friday regarding the club’s plans. Hoyer asserted that “there is nothing we want more than to add” at the coming deadline, though he made clear the club was willing to pivot if buying at the deadline seemed imprudent.

The Cubs currently sit at a record of 43-48 following today’s win against the Red Sox, a record that will leave them seven games out of first place following this evening’s game between the Reds and Brewers. While the club’s +27 run differential is by far the best in the NL Central, Hoyer acknowledged that in order to justify buying at the deadline, “We need to make up ground on first place, and we need to make up ground on .500.”

Should the Cubs fail to do so over the next two weeks, the club seems poised to shop players like center fielder Cody Bellinger and right-hander Marcus Stroman to contending clubs. Stroman, whose lack of extension talks with the club has been well documented, told reporters (including Bruce Levine of The Score) today that he does not expect an extension offer from the Cubs prior to the trade deadline. Even if he’s traded, however, Stroman indicated he would have interest in returning to Chicago on a new contract during the offseason. Stroman can opt-out of the final year and $21MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign comes to a close, and seems all but certain to do so after posting a 2.88 ERA in 118 2/3 innings across his first 20 starts of the season.

More from around the NL Central:

  • While Stroman’s future is up in the air, the same can’t be said for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, who told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that GM Matt Arnold has privately told him that he will not be traded. That matches what Arnold has said publicly, as he previously indicated that Milwaukee would look to add at the deadline and would not consider moving either Burnes or shortstop Willy Adames. The news hardly comes as a surprise given the step back Burnes has taken this season relative to the Cy Young-caliber performance he offered from 2020-22, during which time he posted a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP across 428 2/3 innings of work. In 2023, Burnes has been more solid than spectacular, with a 3.73 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 19 starts with a reduced 24.8% strikeout rate.
  • Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright has endured a difficult season as he prepares to retire following the 2023 campaign. In 11 starts with St. Louis this season, Wainwright posted a ghastly 7.66 ERA and 5.87 FIP prior to heading to the injured list prior to the All-Star break with a shoulder strain. Wainwright is expected to return to the mound this season, however, and manager Oli Marmol today provided an update on the veteran’s status. In conversation with reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, Marmol noted that Wainwright was set to resume throwing off a mound on Monday after receiving multiple shots in his shoulder to help alleviate pain. Once back on the mound, Wainwright will be built up to return to the club’s rotation later this season.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold Discusses Deadline Approach

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The NL Central has been full of surprises this season, from the Cardinals’ shocking failure to get off the ground early in the season to Cincinnati’s recent torrid stretch catapulting them into contention. The one team seemingly immune to the division’s upheaval, at least so far, is the Brewers.

Entering play today, the Brewers sport a 44-39 record that leaves them tied with the Reds for the division lead in a relatively weak NL Central division. The club is currently two games into a ten game stretch against division rivals ahead of the All Star break; after splitting its first two games in Pittsburgh, they’ll play the Pirates in a series finale today before returning to Milwaukee to face the Cubs in a four game set. They’ll then finish up the first half with three games against the Reds. With so many games against their top division rivals, the club could take a much firmer hold of the division lead or slip in the standings somewhat prior to the All Star break.

Despite that lingering uncertainty, the club’s front office seems to have its course largely set with less than a month to go until MLB’s trade deadline on August 1. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy discussed the club’s plans with GM Matt Arnold yesterday, and the GM was rather candid about his planned approach as we enter trade season.

“Look, we want to be competitive here in 2023,” Arnold said. “We will be opportunistic to try and improve this team where we can, responsibly, I think we have a lot of good players here.”

Arnold went on to point to right-hander Brandon Woodruff, left-handers Aaron Ashby and Justin Wilson, and outfielder Tyrone Taylor as potentially impactful “additions” the team could benefit from in the second half, and when prompted to elaborate on what he meant by behaving “responsibly” discussed the importance of balancing the farm system’s longer term outlook and the immediate value of pushing in to win now.

Those comments from Arnold certainly seem to indicate that the Brewers are unlikely to make a major splash by buying at the top of the trade market this month. Such a measured approach to the deadline is fairly typical of Milwaukee in recent years. The club’s biggest deadline acquisition in recent memory was rental infielder Eduardo Escobar during his All Star 2021 campaign. Other recent deadline additions have been smaller, such as the additions of Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz in 2019 or the club’s acquisition of Matt Bush last season.

Of course, the most impactful deal by Milwaukee at the trade deadline in recent years happened last season, when the club shipped closer Josh Hader to the Padres for a four-player package. That deal has had some positives to it, as the club managed to ship outfielder Esteury Ruiz out in a three team deal that brought back catcher William Contreras this past offseason and left-handed prospect Robert Gasser is pitching fairly well at the Triple-A level. Still, the deal is often looked at as having sunk the club’s chances last season as the Brewers finished the season just 29-31 following the trade and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

Arnold suggested a similarly surprising sell-side deal isn’t in the cards this year. When asked if he would consider moving a player such as ace right-hander Corbin Burnes or All Star shortstop Willy Adames, Arnold firmly shut the possibility down, saying, “We’re not looking to move any of those guys. They’re huge parts of our team right now… I mean, I’m sure we’ll get phone calls on these guys, because they’re very good. But that’s not something we’re considering.”

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is disinclined to move either Burnes or Adames, considering neither of the pair has played up to their typical standards this season. Following a three year stretch that saw Burnes post a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP in 428 2/3 innings of work, the 28-year-old righty has put up a rather pedestrian 4.00 ERA in 17 starts this season, only 6% better than league average by measure of ERA+. Meanwhile, Adames is in the midst of the worst offensive season of his career. His .203/.290/.373 slash line, good for a well below average wRC+ of just 81, would be a career worst in all four aforementioned stats if maintained over the rest of the season.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Elly De La Cruz, Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for DeGrom

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Episode 10 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • If Kevin Kiermaier can stay healthy and remain productive, what kind of contract is he looking at in free agency? (22:20)
  • Could Corbin Burnes realistically be traded by the deadline? If so, what teams would likely make a push for him? (26:50)
  • What could the Cubs do with Marcus Stroman? (30:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
  • The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here

Injury Notes: Burnes, Blackburn, Hendricks, Haniger

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes called for the trainer and exited last night’s game after recording the first out in the sixth inning, with 85 pitches under his belt. After the game, manager Craig Counsell told reporters that Burnes had a minor strain of the left pectoralis in his chest (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Burnes incurred the injury in the fourth inning after picking off Eugenio Suarez at second base, catching him in a rundown, and stretching to make the tag on the play. Burnes explained that the injury cramped up beginning in the sixth inning. “I had zero command and then clearly the velo started to drop,” said Burnes, who began the inning with a four-pitch walk.

It’s a surely a relative sigh of relief for Brewers fans, though the team figures to have more info on Burnes in the next day or so as he progresses. For now, it seems the 2021 NL Cy Young winner has avoided a major injury, which is particularly important with righty Brandon Woodruff facing a lengthy absence due to a shoulder strain.

Some more injury scenarios to monitor around the league…

  • Right-hander Paul Blackburn’s return to the Athletics could be further delayed by a blister issue on his pitching hand, tweets Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. The 29-year-old Blackburn rode a first-half breakout to an All-Star nod last summer, but his season went off the rails in mid-July, when he was torched for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He was diagnosed with a torn tendon sheath in his pitching hand, which ended his season. Blackburn looked to be on track for the 2023 campaign, but a fingernail avulsion shelved him briefly. He’s made a pair of rehab starts but will see his third rehab outing delayed by the current blister troubles. Through his first 16 starts last season, Blackburn pitched to a 2.90 ERA with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.2% and 48.7%, respectively, while yielding just an 87.7 mph average exit velocity.
  • Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks threw 36 pitches in a two-inning simulated game yesterday and came away from that session feeling good, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Assuming he doesn’t incur any setbacks in the coming days, that could put Hendricks on pace for a minor league rehab stint sooner than later. He’d likely need multiple starts to build up, which generally aligns with Hendricks’ previous statements that he’s aiming to be on a rehab assignment by May. The 33-year-old Hendricks was one of the NL’s most durable and consistently effective starters from 2015-20, pitching to a 3.17 ERA over the life of 967 innings in that time. He’s stumbled to a 4.78 ERA in 48 starts over the past two seasons, however, as he’s become increasingly homer-prone. Hendricks is entering the final guaranteed season of a four-year, $55MM contract, though the Cubs hold a net $14.5MM decision on him for the 2024 campaign ($16MM option with a $1.5MM buyout).
  • Mitch Haniger is slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment today, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43MM contract over the winter (which contains an opt-out after 2024), but he’s yet to make his team debut after suffering an oblique strain during spring training. He went 3-for-10 with a pair of doubles in 10 official spring at-bats before sustaining the injury. Haniger dealt with myriad injuries in 2019-20 and 2022 but played in 157 games apiece in 2018 and 2021, slugging a combined 65 home runs between those two seasons. Once healthy, he’ll add some more thump to a Giants lineup that somewhat surprisingly ranks fourth in the Majors with 25 homers so far.

Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.

The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.

Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.

Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.

The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.

Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.

In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.

None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.

Corbin Burnes Expresses Disappointment With Brewers Following Arbitration Hearing

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes lost his arbitration hearing against the team this week and, upon being asked about the process in Brewers camp today, offered a rather candid assessment of the hearing (Twitter links, both with video, via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The two-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner expressed “disappointment” not in the loss itself but in the way the team approached negotiations and conducted itself during the trial. Most troubling for Brewer fans is that, asked specifically about his relationship with the team, Burnes admitted that damage had indeed been done.

“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt,” the right-hander said. “There’s really no way of getting around that. Obviously, we’re professionals and we’re going to go out there and do our job. Keep doing what I can every fifth day that I go out there. But some of the things that are said, for instance, basically putting me at the forefront of why we didn’t make the postseason last year — that’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said.”

Burnes made clear that the Brewers did not, at any point, attack his character or disparage him as a person, but the implication was still that lines were crossed in the back-and-forth of the trial. Moreover, the 28-year-old was disappointed with the team’s lack of effort to avoid a trial at all.

“The Brewers never made a real attempt to try to come to a deal to avoid a hearing, at least from our perspective” Burnes explained. “…Even up until the days before, there were some phone calls back and forth, and basically it just came out that we were going to end up going to a hearing. That was kind of how it ended. I think we saw from the deadline day that we were going to end up at a hearing, just with the lack of attempts to get a deal done. It’s unfortunate that it ended up that way.”

The team, Burnes said, made a late but “pretty poor” two-year offer. However, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports that said offer wasn’t even a guaranteed deal to buy out Burnes’ final two arbitration seasons, but rather a one-year deal with an option. Such contracts aren’t considered straight one-year deals by “file and trial” clubs, as the presence of an option prevents them from being cited as data points in future hearings.

Burnes’ candor upon being asked about the matter is simultaneously refreshing and fascinating — and, for Brewers fans, likely infuriating. (MLBTR readers are encouraged to take a few minutes to watch the entirety of his comments in the video links above to grasp the full scope of his comments and the issues  he took with the team’s approach.) The typical line following arbitration hearings is that they’re “just business,” and while many players surely feel that way, Burnes’ comments are a reminder that there’s a personal component to the process and, at the end of the day, the teams are dealing with human beings.

For instance, the right-hander notes that his hearing was scheduled on Valentine’s Day, meaning he spent the majority of the day on a plane or in the trial, only making it home to see his wife around 11pm. He also spoke of the seven years he’s spent rising from the draft to his current status, calling it “tough to hear” some of the things that the team brought to its case against him. “They won [the hearing],” Burnes said, “but when it came down to winning or losing the hearing, it was more than that for me.”

It bears emphasizing that Burnes was asked to open up about the hearing and didn’t necessarily head to camp looking to broadcast any ill feelings toward his longtime employer, but the fact that he was willing to do so in a public setting speaks to the personal stakes that can come into play in these often contentious hearings. It’s a large reason that all parties are typically motivated to avoid going in front of an arbitration panel, though a handful of cases to reach this juncture every year.

The $750K gap that separated the Brewers’ $10.01MM submission and Burnes’ $10.75MM figure is generally considered peanuts for MLB clubs; that’s scarcely more than the league-minimum salary under the new collective bargaining agreement, and the fact that a team will go to a trial and risk just this type of alienation to save relatively trivial sums is often a point of consternation among fans.

We’ve explored the team perspective with regard to arbitration here at MLBTR in the past, pointing out that clubs take hard lines and are willing to go to trial more due to down-the-road implications than immediate, present-day savings. Making a concession on a $750K sum to keep Burnes happy, in a vacuum, seems like an easy call. But if every club took that approach and acquiesced on the small gaps in arbitration, those concessions would become data points for future arbitration cases, and arbitration salaries would spike in fairly rapid fashion. That explanation doesn’t necessarily lessen the frustration among fans and likely only increases it among players, but the simple fact of the matter is that hardline tactics like this generally work. Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM salary as a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher way back in 2006 stood as a standard for first-time arbitration-eligible pitchers for upwards of 15 years, for instance, despite escalating revenues and player salaries throughout the league.

Indeed, the Brewers released a statement of their own on the matter, praising Burnes as a leader and a vital cog for their team. Said general manager Matt Arnold:

“The arbitration process always presents uncomfortable situations for both the club and player involved. It is never easy to present a case against a member of the Brewers family. I’d like to reiterate that we view Corbin as one of the leaders of our franchise and value him as an elite talent in the game. Corbin is a major contributor to the organization both on and off the field, and we look forward to another outstanding season from him in 2023.”

The club’s intentions notwithstanding, Burnes clearly doesn’t feel as though those comments are in alignment with the manner in which he was characterized in the trial. Teams will go to great lengths to win an arbitration hearing, but it’s still eye-opening to hear that the Brewers’ argument in any way linked their postseason miss to Burnes’ performance; Burnes made 33 starts, pitched to a 2.94 ERA and actually had better results against teams with winning records (2.82 ERA) than he did against sub-.500 clubs (3.09 ERA). That includes a masterful 1.29 ERA and 32-to-4 K/BB ratio in 28 innings against the NL Central champion Cardinals.

There’s no indication that any bad blood between Burnes and the team will lead to a trade or prevent Burnes from accepting an extension offer, if the Brewers make a long-term offer to his liking. At the same time, it’s certainly telling to hear such open levels of frustration and disappointment from a star-caliber pitcher with free agency looming after the 2024 campaign. The resultant chip on Burnes’ shoulder could serve as extra motivation both in 2023 and in arbitration again next season, but the Milwaukee ace made clear that he doesn’t plan to dwell on the hearing and will shift his attention to the upcoming season.

“At the end of the day, it’s disappointing, but you’ve got to get past it,” said Burnes. “Obviously, now the focus is playing baseball, and going out and doing what I can for the teammates and the fans.”

Corbin Burnes Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Brewers

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The Brewers have won their arbitration case against star righty Corbin Burnes, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll be paid $10.01MM this season rather than the $10.75MM for which his camp had filed.

A two-time All-Star, Burnes has finished in the top ten in NL Cy Young balloting in three consecutive seasons. He won the award in 2021 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA over 28 starts. Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant on a per-inning basis last year, allowing 2.94 earned runs per nine innings. He stayed healthy and threw a career-best 202 innings over 33 outings. Burnes led the National League with 243 strikeouts, fanning over 30% of opponents for a third straight season.

Burnes and the Brew Crew had avoided arbitration last offseason, agreeing to a $6.5MM salary for his first year of eligibility. They didn’t come to an agreement this time around, with a gap of a little less than $750K between their respective filing figures. Burnes ultimately lands shy of his asking price, though he’s still one of the higher-paid second-year arbitration players of the winter.

The Brewers control the St. Mary’s product through 2024. He’s slated to go through the arbitration process once more next offseason. His escalating salaries led to some speculation about the possibility of Milwaukee fielding trade interest on him, co-ace Brandon Woodruff or star shortstop Willy Adames this winter. Milwaukee quickly quashed any idea of moving those impact players, though, instead dealing more complementary pieces like Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong.

Burnes and Woodruff will front a rotation that should again be the club’s backbone. Freddy Peralta will occupy the third slot, with Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and offseason signee Wade Miley vying for back-end roles. Young left-hander Aaron Ashby could get a rotation opportunity as well but is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season thanks to a shoulder concern.

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

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