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Corbin Burnes

Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes of the Brewers is one of the most attractive trade candidates this winter but it’s not clear if the club will actually pull the trigger on a deal. Earlier today, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Brewers “have engaged teams in recent days” about Burnes. But last night, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that rival clubs think Burnes is likely to remain in Milwaukee.

It’s a tricky spot for the Brewers to be in, as there are arguments for both sides. On the one hand, they are the reigning division champions and are in a strong position to do well again in 2024. Brandon Woodruff’s injury and subsequent non-tender hurts them, but they have one of the best prospects in the league, Jackson Chourio, on the rise and potentially debuting next year. With Woodruff out of the picture, trading Burnes would only further hamper a rotation that has been such a strength for them.

But on the other hand, Burnes is going into his final season of arbitration control. He recently spoke candidly about how an extension is not in the cards. They could hold onto him and give him a qualifying offer at the end of 2024, but they would likely be able to get something better by trading him now. There’s also the risk, as they just saw with Woodruff, that an injury completely alters their future plans.

If Burnes were available, he would undoubtedly get plenty of interest. All reports indicate that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason. Some clubs will be able to sign marque free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but others will come up short in those pursuits while some clubs won’t be able to shop in that aisle at all due to payroll concerns. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, a bargain for a pitcher of his quality.

The righty has tossed 622 1/3 innings over the past four seasons with an earned run average of 2.86. He has struck out 30.9% of batters faced in that time, walked 7.1% of opponents and kept 46.4% of balls in play on the ground. His tally of 17.9 wins above replacement in that frame, per FanGraphs, is second to Zack Wheeler among all pitchers in the league.

He has already been connected to the Dodgers, Cubs and Orioles in rumors but it stands to reason that plenty of other clubs would be interested. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some of the best fits in a theoretical trade.

Today’s reports don’t shed much light on the possibility of a trade actually coming together. It’s fair to assume that the Brewers would want to have talks with all potential trade partners and assess the packages on offer before deciding what is best for the club in 2024 and in the long run. They could use some upgrades on the infield and in the rotation, and the latter of those two needs would only grow if Burnes did end up in another uniform.

Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade

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Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.

With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.

Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.

Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.

Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.

The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).

At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.

If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.

Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.

Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…

Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.

Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.

Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).

D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.

Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.

Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.

Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.

Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.

Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.

Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.

Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.

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Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.

Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes?

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The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.

The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”

Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”

As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.

The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.

Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.

The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.

But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.

By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.

But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.

Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.

What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Orioles Notes: Rotation, Nola, Stadium

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For the past year, the big question for the Orioles is whether they’ll add a high-end starting pitcher. While Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez took steps forward in 2023 (during the second half of the season in the latter’s case), there’s clearly still room for another pitcher who can slot into the upper half of the rotation.

O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged as much during the GM Meetings a few weeks ago. Baltimore has done virtually nothing in free agency during Elias’ five-year tenure. They’re still yet to sign a free agent to a multi-year contract. Much of that has been amidst a rebuild, so there’s a possibility for Elias and his front office to be more aggressive.

To that end, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the O’s had shown interest in Aaron Nola during his free agency. There’s no indication that Baltimore ever put forth a formal offer before Nola returned to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM contract. The right-hander was obviously going to require a commitment well into nine figures, so the O’s being involved at all hints at some willingness to pursue a notable free agent strike.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell should land more significant contracts than the one that Nola received. Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and NPB star Shota Imanaga are among the next tier of free agent starters. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball wrote yesterday that Yamamoto — whom MLBTR predicts for a nine-year, $225MM contract — is likely to be out of Baltimore’s comfort zone financially.

Free agency is only one means of bringing in pitching talent. There are a few notable names who could be available on the trade market. It’s hard to envision the Rays moving Tyler Glasnow within the AL East, but each of Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes have also been floated as candidates. Dubroff suggests the O’s have interest in both hurlers — no surprise given their talent and the team’s desire for a rotation upgrade.

Baltimore still has a top-tier farm system despite the prospect graduations of Rodriguez and Rookie of the Year winner Gunnar Henderson. It’s safe to assume that duo and top shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday are off the table in talks. Players like Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo are among numerous younger talents whom Elias and his staff could make available if they pursued a trade for a high-end starter (particularly one like Cease, who has two seasons of remaining arbitration control).

Also on the docket for the Orioles this winter: finding clarity on their lease agreement with the Maryland Stadium Authority. The franchise announced in late September that they had agreed to a 30-year lease extension at Camden Yards. One day later, the Baltimore Sun reported that it was instead a non-binding memorandum of understanding. That agreement would provide the Orioles long-term development rights around the stadium but did not represent an official extension of the lease.

With the current lease expiring on December 31, the Sun’s Jeff Barker reports that the state and the team are considering decoupling the lease from the development rights to facilitate getting a binding lease in place within the next five weeks. As Barker points out, the legislative hurdles to be cleared are lower for the lease agreement itself than for the accompanying development plans. Tabling those discussions (even temporarily) could get an official lease extension in place to firmly put to rest any questions about the O’s future in Baltimore. In 2019, owner John Angelos pledged the organization will remain in the city “as long as Fort McHenry is watching over the harbor.”

Cubs Interested In Shota Imanaga, “Have An Eye On” Corbin Burnes

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“The Cubs would like to acquire a starter” to add to their rotation depth, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes, with the idea that a new arm would help make up for the departure of Marcus Stroman.  To this end, the Cubs are exploring options on both the free agent and trade fronts, including Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga and Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes.  As has been previously reported, Chicago is also in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, and of course the Cubs are one of the teams known to be interested in Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani’s UCL surgery will keep him off the mound in 2024.

The Red Sox are the only other team publicly linked to Imanaga’s market thus far, and technically, his market has yet to officially open.  The Yokonama DeNA Baystars haven’t yet posted Imanaga for Major League teams, though the move is expected any day now.  Once Imanaga is posted, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal with an MLB club, or else he’ll return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Imanaga has a long track record of success in NPB and on the international stage, including a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 innings with the Baystars, two NPB All-Star nods, and a World Baseball Classic gold medal as part of Japan’s championship team in 2023.  MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander, with Anthony Franco even predicting that Imanaga would land with the Cubs.

While $85MM isn’t small change, it does represent significantly less than Ohtani or Yamamoto will receive, making Imanaga an interesting backup plan for the Cubs (and other teams) if they don’t land one of the bigger names on the pitching market.  Five years/$85MM happens to be exactly what Chicago gave to another notable Japanese player in Seiya Suzuki two offseasons ago.  Though the Cubs did sign Dansby Swanson for $177MM last winter, Rogers notes that “under [president of baseball operations Jed] Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts, the Cubs have been measured in their dealings with free agents.  Setting Ohtani aside, the organization isn’t the type that gets into bidding wars.”

Burnes’ price tag would just cover the 2024 season, as the former NL Cy Young Award winner is set for free agency next winter and is projected for a $15.1MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Of course, Burnes would come at a different cost than just money, as Chicago would have to give up a significant trade package to obtain Burnes from the Brewers.  This might be more of a due diligence situation than a true pursuit, as Rogers writes that the Cubs just “have an eye” on Burnes should Milwaukee make him available in the first place.

A Burnes trade would also be contingent on many other factors, including the larger hurdle of whether or not the Brewers would specifically be open to trading Burnes within the NL Central.  As Rogers notes, Craig Counsell just surprisingly left the Brewers to become the new manager in Wrigleyville, only adding to the rivalry between the two clubs — and quite possibly the unlikelihood of the two sides coming together on any sort of trade, let alone a major swap.

Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon are the Cubs’ current top three starters, with youngsters Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the other two spots and veteran Drew Smyly on hand as either further depth or as a bullpen option.  On paper, this is already a surplus of arms, even before factoring in top prospect Cade Horton likely making his MLB debut in 2024, or Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian as further Triple-A depth.  However, adding another frontline starter would certainly solidify things for a Cubs team that wants to contend in 2024.  Signing Imanaga, for instance, might also give Chicago some flexibility in dealing from that young depth to address other needs.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Approach

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The Brewers are open to trade offers on the majority of their roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While that’s standard procedure for most teams — especially smaller-market franchises — Rosenthal suggests that Milwaukee could be more amenable than they had been in previous offseasons to moving notable players.

Around this time last offseason, Milwaukee was reportedly telling teams they weren’t interested in dealing Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames. It doesn’t seem they’re being quite so definitive this time around. At the same time, that doesn’t guarantee any of those players will be on the move.

Woodruff doesn’t hold much trade value at this point anyhow. The All-Star righty underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the bulk of next season. He’s on track to hit free agency after that year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $11.6MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract. There’s a chance Milwaukee cuts him loose for nothing before next Friday’s non-tender deadline.

Burnes would have immense trade appeal, while Adames would be a valuable asset in his own right. The former is one of the sport’s best pitchers and would likely be the best starter available if the Brewers seriously considered dealing him. The 2021 Cy Young winner worked to a 3.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings this year. He reached the 200 strikeout mark for a third straight season, fanning 25.5% of opponents. While a less impressive showing than Burnes’ three consecutive sub-3.00 ERA years between 2020-22, that’s still very strong production.

Swartz projects him for a salary just above $15MM in his final season of team control. The projected outlay on Adames checks in at $12.4MM. The 28-year-old shortstop is coming off a relative down season. He hit .217/.310/.411 across 638 trips to the plate. That’s well below the .256/.325/.483 line he’d posted between his acquisition from the Rays in May 2021 and the end of the ’22 season.

Despite the dip in offense, Adames would have strong trade appeal. He’s an excellent defender at the infield’s most demanding position. He still connected on 24 home runs and has topped 20 longballs in each of the last four full seasons. A dismal free agent shortstop class leaves other teams without many alternatives.

It is generally expected that Burnes and Adames will price themselves out of Milwaukee when they reach free agency. The Brewers could expect a stronger trade return this offseason than they would if they shopped either player at the deadline — an acquiring team would not only get a full year of their services, they’d be able to make them a qualifying offer next winter.

Moving either player would deal a notable blow to Milwaukee’s hopes of repeating as NL Central champions, though. Between Woodruff’s injury and Wade Miley hitting free agency, the Brew Crew are already thin on the rotation front. The aforementioned middle infield shortage would make it difficult to effectively replace Adames on a low-cost free agent pickup.

The Brewers have made one trade this offseason, sending Mark Canha to the Tigers in lieu of an $11.5MM club option. Moving either Burnes or Adames would be a much tougher decision. Milwaukee has around $36MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class is projected for nearly $65MM, although non-tenders of Woodruff and Rowdy Tellez would trim almost $18MM from that estimate. The Brewers opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $119MM range, so retaining Burnes and Adames should be financially viable.

Various others on the Milwaukee roster are sure to be the subject of interest from rival teams. Devin Williams would be one of the most in-demand relievers, while Adrian Houser could hold appeal to clubs looking for starting pitching. It’s hard to envision the Brewers orchestrating a full teardown — the organization has instead sought perpetual contention by moving select players as they get closer to free agency — but there are various options on the table for GM Matt Arnold over the coming months.

Dodgers Notes: Martinez, Ohtani, Burnes, Heyward, Betts

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Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.

That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.

After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.

Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.

On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.

Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.

Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.

The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold On Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Counsell, Prospects

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Curt Hogg) for the season wrap-up press conference today, and addressing several major topics facing his team as the offseason begins.  One question left open was the status of Brandon Woodruff’s right shoulder, as Arnold said more will be known once Woodruff has another visit with doctors.

“He’s going to be looked at this week.  We’re optimistic,” Arnold said.  “We won’t know until the reports come out, but we’re going to wait until he gets another opinion on his shoulder at this point.”

Woodruff suffered a capsular injury to his throwing shoulder just prior to the start of the Brewers’ Wild Card Series with the Diamondbacks, and it was unclear if Woodruff would’ve been able to pitch during any part of a postseason run even if the Brew Crew had made it as far as the World Series.  Losing one of their top pitchers to injury proved to be a harbinger of bad news for Milwaukee, as the D’Backs swept the NL Central champions in two games.

Between this latest injury and the shoulder problems that caused Woodruff to miss four months of regular season action, it seems possible that surgery might be on the table as an option, which could threaten Woodruff’s availability for 2024.  It also adds another layer of intrigue to the longstanding expectation that at least one of Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, or Willy Adames could be traded.

The three players are entering their final year of arbitration eligibility and will be free agents next winter.  Given Milwaukee’s modest payroll, extending even one of the players might not be feasible, and keeping all three beyond 2024 seems out of the question barring a major change in the Brewers’ spending approach.

Arnold acknowledged this financial situation Tuesday, noting “We can never close the door on any [trade] conversations, as you guys know.  That’s just the reality of where we are.”  However, the GM unsurprisingly also didn’t tip his hand in forecasting any moves, saying “the short answer is that we’re extremely comfortable having” Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames on the roster.

“The foundation is that they’re here and they’re really good players,” Arnold said.  “Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an offseason.  We’ll certainly have to entertain a lot of different discussions but we recognize the value of these players and how much they mean to our franchise.”

Burnes in particular has seemed like the top trade candidate of the group ever since his disappointed reaction to his arbitration hearing back in February,  though Arnold stressed that Burnes “means a ton to what we’ve done here.  He’s been a warrior on the mound….We’ll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year.”

In terms of other winter priorities, the Brewers are hoping to boost offense, particularly at first and third base.  Acquiring Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the trade deadline helped solidify the first base spot down the stretch, though Santana is a free agent and Canha will hit the market as well if the Crew don’t exercise their $11.5MM club option on his services.  Arnold’s comments might imply that Canha and Santana could be let go if the Brewers want more pop out of the first base position, though Canha isn’t only a first baseman, as he can also play in either corner outfield spot.

Andruw Monasterio seems like a candidate to be a third-base regular since Arnold said the team “liked” his work at the hot corner, though the GM also cited top prospect Tyler Black as a candidate at either infield position, “potentially early on” in the season.  If Milwaukee is prepared to give Black a look out of Spring Training, that could mean the team might not pursue an everyday type of veteran corner infielder, in order to not block Black or Monasterio.

There weren’t any new updates on Craig Counsell’s status, as Arnold said management had yet to sit down with the skipper to discuss a new contract.  Counsell’s deal is officially up at the end of October, and he previously told owner Mark Attanasio that he wanted to wait until the season was over to explore an extension.  Given the October 31st expiry date on his current contract, the Brewers will have a few weeks of exclusive negotiating time to explore possibilities with Counsell, before becomes a free agent and open to pursuits from other teams — such as the Mets, who now have David Stearns as president of baseball operations and a managerial vacancy after firing Buck Showalter.

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