Rockies Notes: Shortstop, McMahon, Free Agency, Marquez
With Trevor Story set to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rockies enter the offseason with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years. Among the options under consideration: moving third baseman Ryan McMahon up the defensive spectrum to short, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.
“(Moving McMahon) is something we have discussed,” Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt told Saunders. “Ryan has good range and that’s something we saw last year when he played third base with the shift on.” While McMahon told Saunders he’d yet to hear anything from the organization about that possibility, he sounded amenable to the idea. “I’d like to think that I could work at any (position) and become at least a solid defender there,” the 26-year-old said.
Kicking McMahon over to shortstop on a regular basis would be quite the risk. Not only has he never started a game there in the major leagues, he’s logged all of three innings at the position in his professional career. The California native moved from shortstop to third base in high school, and he’s bounced between the hot corner, second base and first base as a pro.
As Schmidt suggested, though, McMahon’s coming off an excellent defensive season at multiple spots on the diamond. Defensive Runs Saved estimated he was twelve runs above average over 848 2/3 innings at third base (a position at which he was a Gold Glove finalist) and pegged him as an incredible nine runs better than average in just 368 1/3 frames at second base. Statcast credited him with twelve Outs Above Average between the two positions, a mark that tied for tenth among infielders league-wide.
Were the Rockies to address the position internally, it seems McMahon is likelier to shoulder it than Brendan Rodgers. While Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s spent the bulk of his time at second base in recent seasons. That was primarily in deference to Story, but Schmidt reiterated when speaking with Saunders that the club would prefer to keep Rodgers at the keystone.
Of course, the Rox aren’t foreclosing the possibility of addressing shortstop from outside the organization. Schmidt told Saunders the front office is exploring the free agent market. A full-fledged pursuit at one of the market’s top shortstops seems unlikely, but the club could pursue a shorter-term agreement with a player like Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis to at least stabilize the defense.
While a run at one of the top shortstops probably won’t be in the cards, the Rockies have been expected to target a power-hitting outfielder over the coming months. Schmidt confirmed when speaking with Nick Groke of the Athletic the front office sees an addition in the grass as the “best place” for a meaningful upgrade to the lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor, Avisaíl García, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto are among a fairly strong group of free agent outfielders available.
Signing Taylor or Conforto — both of whom rejected qualifying offers from their previous clubs — would cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. With the Rockies facing an uphill battle to compete in a loaded NL West next year, there’s a case that Colorado should prioritize future draft considerations over nearer-term adds.
Schmidt isn’t ruling out a run at a qualified free agent, though, telling Groke he’d be open to surrendering draft compensation in the right scenario. “You have to take it case by case and explore your options,” the veteran executive said. “You can’t blanket say, ‘There’s a draft pick compensation, we’re out.’ You have to consider who the player is, what the acquisition cost is, and what are your alternatives.”
Schmidt’s win-now attitude is the latest reaffirmation that Colorado brass doesn’t view themselves being far from contention. It’s unsurprising given that stance that the Rockies aren’t expected to trade staff ace Germán Márquez this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Colorado could surely bring back a massive haul for a talented, controllable rotation building block like Márquez, they seemingly gave very little consideration to moving the 26-year-old at this past summer’s trade deadline. Instead, it seems the right-hander will be back for his third consecutive Opening Day start in purple and black.
Rockies Rumors: Cron, Givens, Marquez
Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron left last night’s game with a groin strain and will be further evaluated today. Manager Bud Black said after the game that the Rockies have their “fingers crossed” that Cron won’t require a trip to the 10-day injured list (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Nick Groke), though that very comment is seemingly an acknowledgement of such a possibility. If Cron does head to the injured list, that would likely dash any hopes of the Rockies trading him — or at least of receiving much at all in return. (Injured players can still be traded.)
Cron has had a solid bounceback from last year’s knee surgery. Signed over the winter to a minor league contract with just a $1MM base salary, he’s batted .245/.357/.460 with 14 home runs. Cron played in just 13 games with the Tigers last season before incurring his season-ending knee injury, but he showed a massive uptick in plate discipline during that time — one that he’s carried over into 2021. This year’s 12.1 percent walk rate is more than double the career mark that Cron carried into the year. As a pending free agent with defensive limitations, he wouldn’t have commanded a huge return, but a healthy Cron earning barely more than league minimum would be a player of interest to contending clubs, even if it’s only as a bench bat against lefties.
More out of Denver…
- Righty Mychal Givens is drawing plenty of interest on the market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s to be expected, as Givens is another impending free agent on a Rockies club that has zero postseason aspirations. He’s also a reasonably established late-inning reliever in the midst of a solid season, having pitched to a 2.73 ERA in 29 1/3 innings. Givens’ 27.4 percent strikeout rate is down about six percent from its 2019 peak, and his 11.3 percent walk rate is his highest since posting an 11.5 percent mark back in 2016. Both have been trending in the right direction over the past couple months, however. Givens would obviously help a contender’s bullpen, and with about $1.42MM of his $4.05MM salary owed beyond Friday’s deadline, he’s a pretty affordable option for other teams.
- The Rockies remain “dead set” on keeping right-hander German Marquez, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in his latest mailbag. Manager Bud Black plainly said earlier this month that the Rockies wouldn’t trade Marquez, noting that ownership and the front office felt similarly. Black indicated that the Rockies had already informed Marquez and several other players that they wouldn’t be moved at this year’s deadline. It’s a puzzling stance to take for a club in Colorado’s position, particularly if, as Groke later writes in response to another question, owner Dick Monfort wants interim Bill Schmidt to become the full-time general manager in the offseason. It’d be one thing if a club didn’t want an interim GM to make what could be a franchise-altering trade, but if the Rockies’ eventual GM search leads them back to the same executive who’s already pulling the strings, then there’s little reason to not at least listen to offers on Marquez — even if the preference is to keep him.
Bud Black: German Marquez Won’t Be Traded
Starting pitching is at a premium this deadline season perhaps more than ever before, but Rockies skipper Bud Black rather decisively stated that one of the more coveted options on the market will be staying put. In an appearance with Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio).
“He’s on a multi-year deal, so we have him a couple more years,” Black said of Marquez. “…He’s not going anywhere. Even though it might be out there — there might be some noise — we let our guys know, these guys aren’t going to be traded. That’s how our owner feels. That’s how so many people in our organization who are the decision-makers feel about German — and a few other guys, too.”
Obviously, Black doesn’t have final say over baseball operations in Colorado, but he’s no doubt in regular contact with interim general manager Bill Schmidt and the front office regarding the team’s direction as the July 30 trade deadline approaches. Absolutist statement such as this are rare this time of year, as most clubs take an open-minded approach to the deadline, but it seems the Rockies are none too keen on parting with their top starter. They’ve been unwilling to commit to a rebuild in recent years, and that doesn’t appear to have changed for the time being — in spite of a front office exodus that has seen GM Jeff Bridich step down and assistant GMs Jon Weil and Zach Wilson resign.
On the one hand, it’s understandable that any club would be reluctant to part with the 26-year-old Marquez. Under the contract extension he signed in April 2019, he’s being paid $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies must decide on a $16.5MM club option (or a $2.5MM buyout) for the 2024 season. Pair that affordable contract with Marquez’s generally strong track record, and he has the makings of a core piece.
Despite pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, Marquez has pitched to an ERA comfortably south of 4.00 in three of the past four seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.59 mark at the moment and has combined an excellent 54.5 percent ground-ball rate with roughly average strikeout and walk percentages (24.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively). He’s also extremely durable. Marquez has only had one trip to the injured list since breaking into the Majors in 2016 — a brief stint for arm inflammation at the end of the 2019 campaign. He averaged 30 starts per year from 2017-19, made all 13 of his starts in 2020, and hasn’t missed an outing so far in 2021.
On the other hand, however, there’s a clear argument that these are the exact reasons the Rockies should be looking to move Marquez. Nolan Arenado is now in St. Louis. Trevor Story and Jon Gray will either be traded in the next 24 days or will very likely depart via free agency this winter. The Rox are on a collision course with their third straight losing season and their ninth playoff miss in 11 years. The farm system is ranked among the thinnest in baseball, and the top of the NL West looks more formidable each year. A Marquez trade could be the catalyst for a reshaping of the team’s farm system and its long-term payroll outlook.
That, however, simply hasn’t been the modus operandi for owner Dick Monfort. Even on the heels of a 71-91 recird in 2019 and an offseason in which he brought in zero help for the big league roster, Monfort proclaimed that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games.
“I interpolated ’07, ’08 and ’09,” Monfort told the Denver Post in early February 2020. “I had an analytical staff go through and interpolate those numbers — and so in 2020, we’ll win 94 games and lose 68.” (Obvious, unforeseen circumstances rendered that prediction impossible to come true, but the 2020 Rockies went 26-34 — a .433 winning percentage that was actually worse than their 2019 percentage.)
Fatal optimism has been a hallmark of Rockies ownership, and the wholehearted dismissal of even considering a Marquez trade so far in advance of the deadline looks like a continuation of the status quo. It’s possible, of course, that a club blows the Rockies out of the water with a strong initial offer they can’t ignore, but such strong comments from Black make that decidedly unlikely.
It should be noted that an unwillingness to trade Marquez right now does not mean the Rockies will be similarly closed to the notion this winter. Schmidt is only the interim general manager in place of Bridich, and it would be sensible for Monfort to want a transaction as substantial as a Marquez trade to be engineered by whoever is hired to oversee baseball operations on a permanent basis. That’s a luxury the Rockies don’t have with regard to potential trades of Story, Jon Gray and C.J. Cron, all of whom are impending free agents, so it’ll fall to Schmidt and his lone remaining assistant GM, Zack Rosenthal, to spearhead any such negotiations.
Latest On Jon Gray, German Marquez
Rockies starter Jon Gray is scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season. With Colorado having virtually no chance to make the playoffs, that makes the 29-year-old one of the more logical trade candidates in baseball. Indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked Gray the #1 trade candidate in the sport last week.
Gray changing teams next month still seems the most likely outcome, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports the Rockies are expected to offer him a contract extension before pulling the trigger on any trade. Of course, the club offering Gray an extension doesn’t guarantee he’d stick around. The Rockies don’t look particularly close to contention, and the CAA Sports client may prefer to field offers from more immediate contenders this winter instead.
As Rosenthal notes, Colorado’s hitter-friendly home park could also work against them in convincing a pitcher to voluntarily stick around for the long haul. Gray, though, is the rare arm who hasn’t seemed too affected by Coors Field. His career home/road splits are nearly identical, and Gray’s actually been far better at home this season (3.25 ERA, .167/.264/.314 opponents’ slash line) than on the road (6.75 ERA, .350/.400/.538 line).
Extensions for starting pitchers this close to free agency are atypical, as one might expect. Over the past four seasons, only two starters with five-plus years of MLB service time signed extensions. Righty Sonny Gray inked a three-year, $30.5MM guarantee with the Reds in 2019. That was part of an agreement to facilitate a trade from the Yankees to Cincinnati, though, so it’s not a perfectly analogous situation. Righty Lance McCullers Jr., meanwhile, signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros in March. McCullers is nearly two full years younger than Jon Gray and has a better career track record (even after adjusting for park), so the Rockies hurler would have a hard time commanding that kind of commitment.
Gray’s contractual status makes his situation one of the more pressing for interim general manager Bill Schmidt. He’s not the only Colorado starter drawing attention from rival clubs, though. Rosenthal reports the Rockies are also receiving interest in starter Germán Márquez. That’s certainly no surprise. Márquez has worked to a 3.91 ERA in 71 1/3 frames this season- a strong mark for a pitcher in Coors Field- with quality strikeout and ground ball rates (24.7% and 52.7%, respectively). Márquez has walked quite a few batters this year (11.2%), but he was one of the game’s better strike throwers between 2017-20.
In addition to his strong track record of performance, Márquez is controllable through 2024 under the terms of an extension he signed in April 2019. He’s making just $7.5MM this year, followed by respective salaries of $11MM and $15MM in 2022 and 2023. The deal contains a $16MM club option (with a $2.5MM buyout) for 2024. Given that long-term control, the Rockies needn’t move Márquez this summer, and Rosenthal suggests they’re unlikely to do so.
Between Gray, Márquez and impending free agent shortstop Trevor Story (who doesn’t seem likely to re-sign), the Rockies have a trio of players who should continue to generate plenty of calls from contenders. There’s a particular sense of urgency with regards to Gray and Story, as the organization seeks the core of the next contending club in Colorado.
The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild
Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media. It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.
But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West. The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year. After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up. Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.
Trevor Story‘s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs. Charlie Blackmon‘s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season. Scott Oberg‘s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward. Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.
Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package. From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.
Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons. Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season. He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season. One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).
These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field. As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver. It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.
Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019. $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024. Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.
While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season. By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason. An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond‘s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.
It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever. There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023. The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.
One Trade The Rays Would Like To Have Back
The Rays have a reputation for winning trades, with good reason. They’ve proven especially adept at picking up undervalued assets from other organizations. Just this month, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne has covered three key players on the current roster who were acquired either in minor deals or were seen as lesser-regarded players in a more notable swap.
There’s one prominent example, though, of a player whom the Rays gave up as a secondary piece in a bigger trade, only to watch blossom in his new surroundings: right-hander German Márquez. Even the smartest organizations have their share of misses.
At the time the Rays and Rockies completed their January 2016 four-player swap, it was generally seen as the Corey Dickerson–Jake McGee deal. Dickerson had put up fantastic offensive numbers in parts of three seasons in Colorado, hitting .299/.346/.532 (124 wRC+) with 38 home runs in 921 plate appearances. Even after adjusting for Coors Field, Dickerson looked like a fantastic hitter. There were questions about him defensively, but there was obvious appeal to adding a potential middle-of-the-order bat with four seasons of team control for Tampa Bay.
On the other side, the Rockies most visible acquisition was the final two arbitration seasons of McGee. He’d carved out a masterful run at the back end of the Rays’ bullpen in the four years prior. The Rockies envisioned a left-handed strikeout arm anchoring their relief corps. (That didn’t happen, as McGee has fallen off, particularly after signing an ill-fated three-year deal to return to Colorado as a free agent after 2017).
Despite McGee’s prior dominance, the deal seemed tilted in the Rays’ favor. Dave Cameron, then of Fangraphs, opined that the Dickerson-McGee framework “just doesn’t make any sense for the Rockies.” As MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Jeff Todd explained, “it’s somewhat surprising…the Rockies felt comfortable parting with four years of Dickerson for two years of a reliever, however excellent he may be, and one mid-level pitching prospect. Colorado, of course, may see considerably more in Marquez than others in the industry.”
Maybe the Rockies were truly outliers in evaluating the then-20-year-old pitcher more favorably than the rest of the league. If they were, credit to them. Over the past four seasons, Márquez has handily been the most valuable player in the swap. He’s racked up between 10 and 12 wins above replacement despite not reaching the majors until that September. His curveball, merely projected to average as a prospect, has actually proven one of the better swing-and-miss offerings of its type leaguewide, per Brooks Baseball. Increased reliance on his slider in 2018 coincided with a second big uptick in his strikeout rate. Long an elite strike-thrower, Márquez now has bona fide swing-and-miss stuff to back it up. Colorado doubled down on their faith in him with a $43MM guarantee last spring that could keep Márquez around via club options through 2024.
On the other side, Dickerson was merely a good hitter over two years in Tampa, undone a bit by an aggressive approach. He hit .265/.310/.480 (109 wRC+) in 1177 plate appearances from 2016-17. With his arbitration costs rising, the Rays somewhat surprisingly shipped him to Pittsburgh for Daniel Hudson, whom they subsequently released, and second base prospect Tristan Gray. Both Gray and Kevin Padlo, the second player the Rockies sent to Tampa four years ago, remain in the system as decently-regarded prospects.
The Rays figure to recoup some long-term value from Padlo and Gray, but that’ll likely pale in comparison what Márquez has achieved in Colorado. He stands out as the one who got away for Tampa.
Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard
The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…
- Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
- Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
- Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.
NL West Rumors: Padres, Marte, D-backs, MadBum, Rox, Marquez
Continuing an active winter in the San Diego outfield, the Padres have joined the race to acquire Pirates center fielder Starling Marte, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The Padres have already shuffled around their outfield quite a bit this offseason, having added two players (Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham) and subtracted another (Hunter Renfroe). They could get rid of at least one more if a team takes Wil Myers off their hands. The Padres at least tried to pawn Myers off on his first professional team – the Royals – in the clubs’ talks centering on utilityman Whit Merrifield, but KC didn’t bite, according to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report.
More rumblings from the NL West…
- The Diamondbacks “floated” a proposal to Madison Bumgarner that would have promised him something in the realm of $70MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. That falls in line with MLBTR’s $72MM prediction (over four years) for Bumgarner, but the highly accomplished 30-year-old has his eyes fixed on a much richer contract. The longtime Giant’s reportedly aiming for a payday in the $100MM range.
- Teams have inquired about Rockies right-hander German Marquez, but they haven’t shown any willingness to trade him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s neither surprising that other teams covet the strikeout-heavy Marquez nor that the Rockies want to keep him. Before last season, they signed the 24-year-old to a club-friendly extension – one that will see him earn a guaranteed $40.5MM from 2020-23 (including a $2.5MM buyout in ’24).
- Back in late September, the Padres and lights-out closer Kirby Yates were reportedly discussing an extension. No new deal has come together since, but it appears the two sides will at least make an effort to hammer something out. In regards to a potential extension, Yates told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune: “I’m always interested. It’s not up to me. When you get to that point, you have the discussions.” Likewise, the Padres are open to it. The club will “start talking to Kirby about his situation for next year” later this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller revealed. The 32-year-old Yates has just one remaining season of arbitration control, in which he’s projected to earn a bargain salary of $6.5MM.
- The Diamondbacks were already known to have interest free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, and GM Mike Hazen revealed they met with the Japanese standout on Tuesday, per Piecoro. The Cubs also met with Akiyama’s representatives.
Rockies Place German Marquez, Raimel Tapia On IL
The Rockies announced that they’ve placed right-hander German Marquez and outfielder Raimel Tapia on the 10-day injured list. The club recalled lefty Phillip Diehl and righty Joe Harvey from Triple-A Albuquerque in corresponding moves.
Marquez is heading to the shelf with inflammation of his pitching arm, which will cut off a second straight impressive season for the 24-year-old. Marquez amassed 230 strikeouts and logged a 3.77 ERA over 196 innings last season, which helped the Rockies to the playoffs and earned him a five-year, $43MM contract extension in April. Neither the out-of-contention Rockies nor Marquez have reached that form in 2019, but he has nonetheless been formidable. Marquez has fired 174 frames of 4.76 ERA/4.06 FIP pitching with 9.05 K/9, 1.81 BB/9 and a 49 percent groundball rate.
Tapia’s down with a left hand contusion, but unlike Marquez, he hasn’t established himself yet. Through 393 plate appearances, the 25-year-old Tapia’s a .295/.326/.440 hitter. That looks good on paper, but with park factors in the mix, it only adds up to an 82 wRC+/83 OPS+. Tapia has also struggled to minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 746 innings divided among all three outfield positions this season. The package has been worth minus-0.5 fWAR, making Tapia one of the least valuable major leaguers of 2019 by that metric.
Rockies Extend German Marquez
April 6: The Rockies have formally announced the extension. Marquez is now signed through at least the 2023 season.
Per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), he’ll receive a $1.5MM signing bonus and earn $1MM this season before earning $4.5MM in 2020, $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023. The option is valued at $16MM and comes with a $2.5MM buyout.
April 2: The Rockies and right-hander German Marquez are in agreement on a five-year, $43MM contract extension, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (via Twitter). The deal contains a club option for a sixth season, though a pair of top-three finishes in Cy Young voting over the life of the deal would convert that into a mutual option. The contract begins in 2019 and runs through the 2023 season, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Marquez is represented by Daniel Szew of L.A. Sports Management.
The $43MM figure promised to Marquez is the second-largest guarantee ever received by an arbitration-eligible pitcher with between two and three years of MLB service time. Rays lefty Blake Snell recently set a new precedent in that regard by landing a $50MM sum over the same five-year term, which may have helped to move the market forward a bit for Marquez.
Marquez, who turned 24 in February, was not yet eligible for arbitration and will now forgo that entire process. The new contract includes the current season as well as three arbitration years and what would have been Marquez’s first season of free agency. The club option covers a second would-be free-agent season. Marquez would’ve been on track to reach free agency heading into his age-28 season, but he’ll now be controlled by the Rockies through age 29 and reach the market in advance of his age-30 campaign.
While Marquez didn’t generate the most attention among Rockies starters last year — teammate Kyle Freeland placed fourth in National League Cy Young voting — he did break out as a high-quality mid-rotation piece with the potential upside to become more. Over the life of a career-high 196 innings, Marquez posted a 3.77 ERA with 10.6 K/, 2.6 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate. Metrics such as FIP (3.40), xFIP (3.10) and SIERA (3.31) all felt that Marquez handily outperformed an earned run average that already appeared solid (particularly when accounting for the fact that his home games are played at Coors Field).
Marquez complemented those numbers with a fastball that averaged 95.2 mph, a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate and a 30.7 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone. Dating back to Opening Day 2017 (and including the lone start he’s made in 2019), Marquez has a 4.01 ERA with 384 strikeouts against 109 walks across 364 innings for the Rox.
Moving forward, the Rockies will count on Marquez and Freeland to anchor a rotation that also features lefty Tyler Anderson, the talented but wildly inconsistent Jon Gray and veteran righty Chad Bettis. There’s a chance that Marquez proves to be the best of that bunch, though the rates at which he’s being paid would be a bargain even for a mid-rotation starter (as is the inherent nature of pre-arbitration contract extensions).
The Rockies now control Marquez longer than any player on the roster other than their other spring extension recipient, Nolan Arenado, who is signed through the 2026 season (albeit with an opt-out after 2021). The Rockies aren’t in any real proximity to the luxury tax threshold, so any ramifications of the deal’s impact on Colorado’s luxury payroll are negligible. Colorado already had $116.75MM on the books for the 2020 season, and the Marquez contract will nudge that forward by a few million dollars.
Marquez’s agreement continues an unprecedented barrage of long-term extensions for players who are already under club control — many of whom have signed on the dotted line just months before what would’ve been their first foray into free agency (e.g. Arenado). The onslaught of long-term deals has manifested against the backdrop of significant tension labor tensions stemming from a deteriorating middle class among MLB free agents and questions surrounding the increasing number of tanking (“rebuilding”) teams throughout the league.
As shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Marquez’s deal is, stunningly, the 25th extension of the calendar year. In past offseasons, it was commonplace for a handful of players to ink long-term deals each spring, but this is the first time in league history that the equivalent of an entire team’s active roster has signed extensions. While it’s hard to fault any player for signing on board for a life-changing sum of money, the increased number of pre-market deals also serves to suppress the age at which players reach free agency, leading to more free agents in their early 30s and creating potential for additional strife down the line. Of course, the league and MLBPA are already in the process of discussing changes well in advance of the current Basic Agreement’s expiration at the end of the 2021 season, so perhaps there’ll be changes that mitigate much of that tension as we move ahead.