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German Marquez

German Marquez Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, No Significant Structural Damage

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10:47pm: Márquez expects to be placed on the 15-day injured list, he said after tonight’s loss to the Cardinals (relayed by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).

9:24pm: Rockies starter Germán Márquez was sent for an MRI after leaving yesterday’s start with tightness in his forearm. Imaging revealed a muscle strain but no significant structural damage, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.

It’s a relief there are apparently no structural issues that would raise the specter of surgery. Nevertheless, it’s hard to envision Márquez avoiding the injured list after the revelation of a forearm injury. The Rockies haven’t yet made a roster move or provided any kind of timetable for his recovery.

Márquez is the top pitcher on the Rockies’ staff. He’s allowed eight runs in 16 1/3 innings this season but struck out 13 while issuing only two walks. The Venezuelan-born hurler had a down 2022 season, allowing nearly five earned runs per nine over 31 starts. Between 2017-21, he worked to a 4.25 ERA with an above-average 24% strikeout rate.

Rotation depth is a major concern for Colorado. Antonio Senzatela is still recovering from last summer’s torn ACL. Beyond Márquez and Kyle Freeland, the Rox currently have José Ureña, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber rounding out the starting five. Ureña and Feltner, in particular, have been hit hard in their first two starts. Long reliever Connor Seabold and Peter Lambert appear to be the top options to step into the rotation should Márquez miss any time.

It’s a crucial season for Márquez, who’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Rockies aren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot and could listen to offers on players closer to the trade deadline. A healthy Márquez would be a target for a number of clubs, though Colorado has steadfastly refused interest in previous summers. They could well do so again, as the Rox hold a $16MM option on his services that comes with a $2.5MM buyout for next season. The net $13.5MM call is strong value if the right-hander is healthy. That calculus could change if he’s forced to miss a notable chunk of this season with a forearm issue but the timeline remains to be determined.

German Marquez Leaves Start With Forearm Tightness

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Rockies hurler Germán Márquez left tonight’s win over the Cardinals after just five innings and 62 pitches. He’d come out to warm up in the sixth but called out the trainer and gestured toward the outside of his forearm. Postgame, manager Bud Black called the issue forearm tightness (link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).

It’s far too early for the Rox to have a definitive diagnosis. Black expressed hope the issue isn’t serious and didn’t rule out the possibility of Márquez making his next start. Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that Márquez also downplayed his concern, though he noted he’s also experienced some forearm tightness between his starts. Whether he’ll be able to avoid the injured list will be clearer after he undergoes further evaluation tomorrow.

Forearm tightness is an ominous diagnosis for any pitcher. It can be a precursor to ligament or muscular damage in the forearm/elbow area. That doesn’t inherently mean Márquez’s issue is serious, of course, but it’ll be cause for concern for Colorado until there’s more clarity on what’s causing the discomfort.

Márquez is the top pitcher on the Rockies’ staff. He’s allowed eight runs in 16 1/3 innings this season but struck out 13 while issuing only two walks. The Venezuelan-born hurler had a down 2022 season, allowing nearly five earned runs per nine over 31 starts. Between 2017-21, he worked to a 4.25 ERA with an above-average 24% strikeout rate.

Rotation depth is a major concern for Colorado. Antonio Senzatela is still recovering from last summer’s torn ACL. Beyond Márquez and Kyle Freeland, the Rox currently have José Ureña, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber rounding out the starting five. Ureña and Feltner, in particular, have been hit hard in their first two starts. Long reliever Connor Seabold and Peter Lambert appear to be the top options to step into the rotation should Márquez miss any time.

This Date In Transaction History: German Marquez Extension

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The most notable early April transactions tend to be extensions. Those talks often commence during Spring Training and can sometimes linger into the early portion of the regular season. One notable example occurred on this date four years ago, when the Rockies officially announced an extension with staff ace Germán Márquez.

That contract guaranteed the Venezuelan-born righty $43MM over five seasons. Márquez had between two and three years of service at the time. The deal bought out all four seasons of arbitration eligibility — he’d qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player — and at least one free agent year. It also contained a club option for a sixth season, potentially pushing Colorado’s window of control out by two years.

It remains the second-largest extension for an arbitration-eligible pitcher within that service window, trailing only the $50MM deal Blake Snell had signed with Tampa Bay the month prior. Márquez was coming off the best season of his career, throwing 196 innings of 3.77 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate to help the Rox to a playoff berth.

The results over the past few seasons have been mixed. Márquez’s ERA backed up to 4.76 in 2019. His peripherals remained solid, although his strikeout rate dropped by almost four percentage points. Márquez rebounded with a 3.75 ERA over 13 starts during the shortened season, a strong mark for a pitcher who spends half his time at Coors Field. He earned his first All-Star nod in 2021, as he carried an excellent 3.36 ERA through that year’s first half. Opposing hitters teed off towards the end of that season, though, tagging him for more than six earned runs per nine innings after the All-Star Break.

Those struggles lingered into the following season. Márquez’s 2022 campaign was arguably the worst of his career. While he stayed healthy and soaked up 181 2/3 frames in 31 outings, his 4.95 ERA was his highest mark (excluding a six-outing debut in 2016). His 20% strikeout percentage was a hair below the league average. Márquez hasn’t missed bats as frequently as he did back in 2018 even though his average fastball velocity has held steady in the 95-96 MPH range. His slider and curveball speeds have gone up a couple ticks over the years but have lost some depth, contributing to the dip in whiffs.

Including his first two starts this year, Márquez owns a cumulative 4.58 ERA in 106 starts since the beginning of the 2019 season. He’s been durable and easily leads the team in innings, soaking up 628 2/3 frames over that stretch. Márquez has punched out 22% of opponents, kept his walks to a 7.1% rate and induced grounders at a 49.5% clip. That’s slightly above-average production after accounting for his home park, with a 4.08 SIERA painting him as a capable #3 type starter. Yet while he flashed top-of-the-rotation numbers at times, his past year and a half have been below his early-career standards.

The Rockies have gotten solid value out the Márquez extension and it’s a deal they’d likely sign again in hindsight. The organization has signed a few other arbitration-eligible players to extensions with mixed results. Ryan McMahon is signed through 2027, while the club locked up Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela through 2026. The McMahon deal ($70MM over six years) looks like solid value. The club didn’t get much from Senzatela or Freeland last year, the first seasons of their respective contracts. A three-year, $14.5MM deal for backstop Elias Díaz didn’t go well in year one.

Colorado hasn’t found any team success over the past four seasons. They’ve finished either fourth or fifth in the NL West every year, and they’re generally expected to do the same in 2023. They’re potentially facing an inflection point with Márquez, as this is the final guaranteed season of his deal. The Rox hold the aforementioned club option next year, which is valued at $16MM and comes with a $2.5MM buyout. That still looks like decent value considering his career body of work. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, for instance, each secured $17-18MM annually over four years as free agents last offseason. If Márquez repeats his 2022 numbers, however, it could be a more borderline call for the Colorado front office.

The Rox might also have to again grapple with trade questions this summer. Colorado has made clear they wouldn’t listen on Márquez near the deadline in recent seasons. That could well again be the case considering the organization’s longstanding opposition to a retool or complete teardown. As the extension gets closer to its conclusion, that decision could become tougher for general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Injury Notes: Marquez, Kopech, White

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German Marquez suffered a left hamstring injury during conditioning drills, though Rockies manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Marquez was able to do some light running on Friday and play catch.  The injury seems minor enough that Marquez expressed hope that he could still pitch for his native Venezuela during the second round of the World Baseball Classic, though Marquez will be sidelined for the first round of WBC play.

The right-hander is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign that saw him post a 4.95 ERA over 181 2/3 innings and some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.  Any kind of delay in his spring work won’t help in Marquez’s rebound efforts, and a pitching-thin team like Colorado certainly can’t afford seeing its ace miss any time.  However, the injury may have taken place early enough that Marquez’s Opening Day status may not be in question — as Black put it, “we’re fortunate in a lot of ways, and German realizes this, that it’s the middle of February and not the middle of March.”

More on other injury situations around the sport…

  • Both Michael Kopech and White Sox manager Pedro Grifol think the right-hander is going to be ready for Opening Day, as they updated reporters (including the Associated Press) about Kopech’s status following an injury-marred end to his season.  Kopech spent time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation and a left knee strain, and his season came to an early end when he underwent surgery to fix a tear in his right meniscus.  After an offseason of rehab work, Kopech is now “at a point where the knee’s feeling better, the shoulder’s feeling better.  But it’s just kind of smoothing things out and getting back to 100 percent.” With Kopech tossing only 119 1/3 innings in 2022, his first full season as a starting pitcher ended up being somewhat limited, though he overcame some very shaky metrics to post a 3.54 ERA.
  • Mitch White told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson that he had a slight shoulder impingement in January that somewhat delayed his usual offseason routine, but the Blue Jays righty is now feeling “great.”  White is close to starting to throw side sessions, and that might provide a clearer picture of whether or not White is fully ready as camp opens.  Entering his first full season with Toronto, White struggled to a 7.74 ERA over 43 innings with the Blue Jays after being traded from the Dodgers, but White still enters camp in competition for the Jays’ fifth starter role.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Rockies Notes: Shortstop, McMahon, Free Agency, Marquez

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With Trevor Story set to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rockies enter the offseason with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years. Among the options under consideration: moving third baseman Ryan McMahon up the defensive spectrum to short, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“(Moving McMahon) is something we have discussed,” Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt told Saunders. “Ryan has good range and that’s something we saw last year when he played third base with the shift on.” While McMahon told Saunders he’d yet to hear anything from the organization about that possibility, he sounded amenable to the idea. “I’d like to think that I could work at any (position) and become at least a solid defender there,” the 26-year-old said.

Kicking McMahon over to shortstop on a regular basis would be quite the risk. Not only has he never started a game there in the major leagues, he’s logged all of three innings at the position in his professional career. The California native moved from shortstop to third base in high school, and he’s bounced between the hot corner, second base and first base as a pro.

As Schmidt suggested, though, McMahon’s coming off an excellent defensive season at multiple spots on the diamond. Defensive Runs Saved estimated he was twelve runs above average over 848 2/3 innings at third base (a position at which he was a Gold Glove finalist) and pegged him as an incredible nine runs better than average in just 368 1/3 frames at second base. Statcast credited him with twelve Outs Above Average between the two positions, a mark that tied for tenth among infielders league-wide.

Were the Rockies to address the position internally, it seems McMahon is likelier to shoulder it than Brendan Rodgers. While Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s spent the bulk of his time at second base in recent seasons. That was primarily in deference to Story, but Schmidt reiterated when speaking with Saunders that the club would prefer to keep Rodgers at the keystone.

Of course, the Rox aren’t foreclosing the possibility of addressing shortstop from outside the organization. Schmidt told Saunders the front office is exploring the free agent market. A full-fledged pursuit at one of the market’s top shortstops seems unlikely, but the club could pursue a shorter-term agreement with a player like Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis to at least stabilize the defense.

While a run at one of the top shortstops probably won’t be in the cards, the Rockies have been expected to target a power-hitting outfielder over the coming months. Schmidt confirmed when speaking with Nick Groke of the Athletic the front office sees an addition in the grass as the “best place” for a meaningful upgrade to the lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor, Avisaíl García, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto are among a fairly strong group of free agent outfielders available.

Signing Taylor or Conforto — both of whom rejected qualifying offers from their previous clubs — would cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. With the Rockies facing an uphill battle to compete in a loaded NL West next year, there’s a case that Colorado should prioritize future draft considerations over nearer-term adds.

Schmidt isn’t ruling out a run at a qualified free agent, though, telling Groke he’d be open to surrendering draft compensation in the right scenario. “You have to take it case by case and explore your options,” the veteran executive said. “You can’t blanket say, ‘There’s a draft pick compensation, we’re out.’ You have to consider who the player is, what the acquisition cost is, and what are your alternatives.”

Schmidt’s win-now attitude is the latest reaffirmation that Colorado brass doesn’t view themselves being far from contention. It’s unsurprising given that stance that the Rockies aren’t expected to trade staff ace Germán Márquez this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Colorado could surely bring back a massive haul for a talented, controllable rotation building block like Márquez, they seemingly gave very little consideration to moving the 26-year-old at this past summer’s trade deadline. Instead, it seems the right-hander will be back for his third consecutive Opening Day start in purple and black.

Rockies Rumors: Cron, Givens, Marquez

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Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron left last night’s game with a groin strain and will be further evaluated today. Manager Bud Black said after the game that the Rockies have their “fingers crossed” that Cron won’t require a trip to the 10-day injured list (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Nick Groke), though that very comment is seemingly an acknowledgement of such a possibility. If Cron does head to the injured list, that would likely dash any hopes of the Rockies trading him — or at least of receiving much at all in return. (Injured players can still be traded.)

Cron has had a solid bounceback from last year’s knee surgery. Signed over the winter to a minor league contract with just a $1MM base salary, he’s batted .245/.357/.460 with 14 home runs. Cron played in just 13 games with the Tigers last season before incurring his season-ending knee injury, but he showed a massive uptick in plate discipline during that time — one that he’s carried over into 2021. This year’s 12.1 percent walk rate is more than double the career mark that Cron carried into the year. As a pending free agent with defensive limitations, he wouldn’t have commanded a huge return, but a healthy Cron earning barely more than league minimum would be a player of interest to contending clubs, even if it’s only as a bench bat against lefties.

More out of Denver…

  • Righty Mychal Givens is drawing plenty of interest on the market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s to be expected, as Givens is another impending free agent on a Rockies club that has zero postseason aspirations. He’s also a reasonably established late-inning reliever in the midst of a solid season, having pitched to a 2.73 ERA in 29 1/3 innings. Givens’ 27.4 percent strikeout rate is down about six percent from its 2019 peak, and his 11.3 percent walk rate is his highest since posting an 11.5 percent mark back in 2016. Both have been trending in the right direction over the past couple months, however. Givens would obviously help a contender’s bullpen, and with about $1.42MM of his $4.05MM salary owed beyond Friday’s deadline, he’s a pretty affordable option for other teams.
  • The Rockies remain “dead set” on keeping right-hander German Marquez, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in his latest mailbag. Manager Bud Black plainly said earlier this month that the Rockies wouldn’t trade Marquez, noting that ownership and the front office felt similarly. Black indicated that the Rockies had already informed Marquez and several other players that they wouldn’t be moved at this year’s deadline. It’s a puzzling stance to take for a club in Colorado’s position, particularly if, as Groke later writes in response to another question, owner Dick Monfort wants interim Bill Schmidt to become the full-time general manager in the offseason. It’d be one thing if a club didn’t want an interim GM to make what could be a franchise-altering trade, but if the Rockies’ eventual GM search leads them back to the same executive who’s already pulling the strings, then there’s little reason to not at least listen to offers on Marquez — even if the preference is to keep him.

Bud Black: German Marquez Won’t Be Traded

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Starting pitching is at a premium this deadline season perhaps more than ever before, but Rockies skipper Bud Black rather decisively stated that one of the more coveted options on the market will be staying put. In an appearance with Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio).

“He’s on a multi-year deal, so we have him a couple more years,” Black said of Marquez. “…He’s not going anywhere. Even though it might be out there — there might be some noise — we let our guys know, these guys aren’t going to be traded. That’s how our owner feels. That’s how so many people in our organization who are the decision-makers feel about German — and a few other guys, too.”

Obviously, Black doesn’t have final say over baseball operations in Colorado, but he’s no doubt in regular contact with interim general manager Bill Schmidt and the front office regarding the team’s direction as the July 30 trade deadline approaches. Absolutist statement such as this are rare this time of year, as most clubs take an open-minded approach to the deadline, but it seems the Rockies are none too keen on parting with their top starter. They’ve been unwilling to commit to a rebuild in recent years, and that doesn’t appear to have changed for the time being — in spite of a front office exodus that has seen GM Jeff Bridich step down and assistant GMs Jon Weil and Zach Wilson resign.

On the one hand, it’s understandable that any club would be reluctant to part with the 26-year-old Marquez. Under the contract extension he signed in April 2019, he’s being paid $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies must decide on a $16.5MM club option (or a $2.5MM buyout) for the 2024 season. Pair that affordable contract with Marquez’s generally strong track record, and he has the makings of a core piece.

Despite pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, Marquez has pitched to an ERA comfortably south of 4.00 in three of the past four seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.59 mark at the moment and has combined an excellent 54.5 percent ground-ball rate with roughly average strikeout and walk percentages (24.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively). He’s also extremely durable. Marquez has only had one trip to the injured list since breaking into the Majors in 2016 — a brief stint for arm inflammation at the end of the 2019 campaign. He averaged 30 starts per year from 2017-19, made all 13 of his starts in 2020, and hasn’t missed an outing so far in 2021.

On the other hand, however, there’s a clear argument that these are the exact reasons the Rockies should be looking to move Marquez. Nolan Arenado is now in St. Louis. Trevor Story and Jon Gray will either be traded in the next 24 days or will very likely depart via free agency this winter. The Rox are on a collision course with their third straight losing season and their ninth playoff miss in 11 years. The farm system is ranked among the thinnest in baseball, and the top of the NL West looks more formidable each year. A Marquez trade could be the catalyst for a reshaping of the team’s farm system and its long-term payroll outlook.

That, however, simply hasn’t been the modus operandi for owner Dick Monfort. Even on the heels of a 71-91 recird in 2019 and an offseason in which he brought in zero help for the big league roster, Monfort proclaimed that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games.

“I interpolated ’07, ’08 and ’09,” Monfort told the Denver Post in early February 2020. “I had an analytical staff go through and interpolate those numbers — and so in 2020, we’ll win 94 games and lose 68.” (Obvious, unforeseen circumstances rendered that prediction impossible to come true, but the 2020 Rockies went 26-34 — a .433 winning percentage that was actually worse than their 2019 percentage.)

Fatal optimism has been a hallmark of Rockies ownership, and the wholehearted dismissal of even considering a Marquez trade so far in advance of the deadline looks like a continuation of the status quo. It’s possible, of course, that a club blows the Rockies out of the water with a strong initial offer they can’t ignore, but such strong comments from Black make that decidedly unlikely.

It should be noted that an unwillingness to trade Marquez right now does not mean the Rockies will be similarly closed to the notion this winter. Schmidt is only the interim general manager in place of Bridich, and it would be sensible for Monfort to want a transaction as substantial as a Marquez trade to be engineered by whoever is hired to oversee baseball operations on a permanent basis. That’s a luxury the Rockies don’t have with regard to potential trades of Story, Jon Gray and C.J. Cron, all of whom are impending free agents, so it’ll fall to Schmidt and his lone remaining assistant GM, Zack Rosenthal, to spearhead any such negotiations.

Latest On Jon Gray, German Marquez

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Rockies starter Jon Gray is scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season. With Colorado having virtually no chance to make the playoffs, that makes the 29-year-old one of the more logical trade candidates in baseball. Indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked Gray the #1 trade candidate in the sport last week.

Gray changing teams next month still seems the most likely outcome, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports the Rockies are expected to offer him a contract extension before pulling the trigger on any trade. Of course, the club offering Gray an extension doesn’t guarantee he’d stick around. The Rockies don’t look particularly close to contention, and the CAA Sports client may prefer to field offers from more immediate contenders this winter instead.

As Rosenthal notes, Colorado’s hitter-friendly home park could also work against them in convincing a pitcher to voluntarily stick around for the long haul. Gray, though, is the rare arm who hasn’t seemed too affected by Coors Field. His career home/road splits are nearly identical, and Gray’s actually been far better at home this season (3.25 ERA, .167/.264/.314 opponents’ slash line) than on the road (6.75 ERA, .350/.400/.538 line).

Extensions for starting pitchers this close to free agency are atypical, as one might expect. Over the past four seasons, only two starters with five-plus years of MLB service time signed extensions. Righty Sonny Gray inked a three-year, $30.5MM guarantee with the Reds in 2019. That was part of an agreement to facilitate a trade from the Yankees to Cincinnati, though, so it’s not a perfectly analogous situation. Righty Lance McCullers Jr., meanwhile, signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros in March. McCullers is nearly two full years younger than Jon Gray and has a better career track record (even after adjusting for park), so the Rockies hurler would have a hard time commanding that kind of commitment.

Gray’s contractual status makes his situation one of the more pressing for interim general manager Bill Schmidt. He’s not the only Colorado starter drawing attention from rival clubs, though. Rosenthal reports the Rockies are also receiving interest in starter Germán Márquez. That’s certainly no surprise. Márquez has worked to a 3.91 ERA in 71 1/3 frames this season- a strong mark for a pitcher in Coors Field- with quality strikeout and ground ball rates (24.7% and 52.7%, respectively). Márquez has walked quite a few batters this year (11.2%), but he was one of the game’s better strike throwers between 2017-20.

In addition to his strong track record of performance, Márquez is controllable through 2024 under the terms of an extension he signed in April 2019. He’s making just $7.5MM this year, followed by respective salaries of $11MM and $15MM in 2022 and 2023. The deal contains a $16MM club option (with a $2.5MM buyout) for 2024. Given that long-term control, the Rockies needn’t move Márquez this summer, and Rosenthal suggests they’re unlikely to do so.

Between Gray, Márquez and impending free agent shortstop Trevor Story (who doesn’t seem likely to re-sign), the Rockies have a trio of players who should continue to generate plenty of calls from contenders. There’s a particular sense of urgency with regards to Gray and Story, as the organization seeks the core of the next contending club in Colorado.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

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