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Xander Bogaerts

Zaidi: Giants In Contact With Free Agent Shortstops, Plan To Issue QO To Carlos Rodon

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The Giants are widely expected to be one of the league’s most active teams this offseason, with the front office reloading after an underwhelming 2022 season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) this evening and confirmed the team could play near the top of the market.

Asked about the club’s free agent priorities, Zaidi told the media “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.” He went on to note they’ve already had discussions with representatives for free agent shortstops who’ve expressed a willingness to move to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). Teams technically aren’t allowed to negotiate contract terms with free agents from other teams until tomorrow evening, but they can discuss more general concepts like roster fit during the exclusive negotiation period.

Zaidi didn’t specify the players involved, although it’s not hard to infer he’s speaking about the top shortstops on the market. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are going to be priority targets for a number of the game’s biggest-spending teams. It’s notable that Zaidi spoke of potentially moving an external pickup to the other side of the bag while keeping Crawford at shortstop, although it’s not clear if that’s an absolute requirement for any player under consideration. Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, told reporters he hasn’t heard from teams looking to push either player off the position (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

While adding a top shortstop is plausible for a San Francisco club looking to get younger and more athletic this winter, Zaidi and his group are sure to cast a wide net. The mention of the financial wherewithal to pursue any player available will lead to further speculation about the market’s top free agent. The Giants are sure to be linked to Aaron Judge throughout the winter, as they’re indeed among the clubs most well-positioned for that kind of expenditure. San Francisco has roughly $72.5MM in guaranteed commitments on the books, pending a call on Evan Longoria’s option. Even with a fairly heavy arbitration class, the Giants have plenty of room before approaching this year’s $155MM Opening Day mark, and they’re nowhere near the franchise-record heights that pushed $200MM.

Of course, San Francisco is facing a few potential key departures. Ace Carlos Rodón opted out of the second year of his deal and is back on the open market. Zaidi confirmed the club’s obvious decision to tag him with a $19.65MM qualifying offer (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), which Rodón is a lock to reject in pursuit of a deal north of nine figures. That’d entitle the Giants to a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) in next year’s draft if the star southpaw departs.

San Francisco also sees corner outfielder Joc Pederson hit the open market, and while he certainly won’t receive a QO, Zaidi reiterated the team would like to keep him around (Shea link). The lefty-hitting outfielder posted a .274/.353/.521 line after signing a $6MM guarantee last offseason, and the club has discussed a potential extension as far back as September. Pederson is sure to beat $6MM this time around and looks to have a good shot at a multi-year contract after his quality platform year.

Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop

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The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.

Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”

Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”

Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.

Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.

Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).

Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.

Xander Bogaerts Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract

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As expected, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract, as the MLB Players Association announced (via Twitter) that Bogaerts was among the latest players to join the free agent market.  Bogaerts will leave the final three years and $60MM of his deal with Boston to look for a larger contract on the open market.

There was never much suspense over Bogaerts’ decision, as an opt-out always seemed pretty likely even from the moment the shortstop signed the six-year, $120MM extension back in April 2019.  Bogaerts just turned 30 years old last month, and he’ll surely command far beyond three years and $60MM in his first taste of the free agent market.

Perhaps the only question surrounding the opt-out was whether or not the Red Sox would make it a moot point, by agreeing to another extension with Bogaerts.  However, extension talks back in the spring reportedly saw Boston make a surprisingly small offer of only an extra season and another $30MM added to Bogaerts’ current contract.  As of a month ago, Bogaerts said the two sides hadn’t had any other further negotiations, though it’s probably safe to assume that some talks did take place, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom stressed that Bogaerts was Boston’s top priority heading into the offseason.

The Red Sox still retain exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts until free agency officially opens on Thursday.  While the two sides have shared mutual interest in Bogaerts’ continued future in Boston, it would be awfully surprising to see the two sides agree to a new deal so close to the opening of the market.  Once other teams can speak to Bogaerts, it remains to be seen whether the Sox will outbid other suitors, or if they’ll perhaps explore other shortstop options after 10 seasons with Bogaerts at Fenway Park.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Dipoto: Mariners To Pursue Shortstops Willing To Play Second Base

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There is plenty of cause for optimism in Seattle. The Mariners finished with a 90-72 record, their best since 2003. They delivered one of the best comeback wins in postseason history on their way to knocking off the Blue Jays in the wild card series. Down the stretch, the club locked up budding presumptive AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez through 2034 and extended two-time All Star starting pitcher Luis Castillo through 2028.

Now, on the heels of a thrilling season, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has indicated that he’s open to making big moves in order to improve what is already a playoff-caliber team.

At the M’s end-of-season media session on Wednesday, Dipoto said that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base” (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Dipoto is likely referring to any of the four “big name shortstops” who project to be free agents this offseason: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Each of these four would instantly improve Seattle’s offense, which ranked in the bottom half of all of baseball. All four of the big name shortstops will require multi-year pacts with significant annuals.

The Mariners project to have the payroll capacity to splurge on a top-of-the-market shortstop, should they choose to. In 2022, Seattle ranked 22nd in MLB with an Opening Day player payroll just shy of $104MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2022’s figure is significantly lower than some of the Mariners’ recent seasons, during which Seattle was generally less competitive. From 2016 to 2019, the Mariners averaged total payrolls of roughly $150MM, ranking as high as 11th league-wide.

The M’s currently have around $91MM worth of payroll commitments for 2023, per Roster Resource. Though that number will increase as a result of arbitration, it seems likely that Seattle would have the fiscal capacity to sign one of the big four shortstops, even if they attempt to bring back Mitch Haniger, who will be a free agent this offseason as well.

The major caveat in Seattle’s pursuit of a big-name free agent shortstop will be whether or not any of them will accept a move to second base. Dipoto reaffirmed his commitment to J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ shortstop. He told the media that Crawford, age 27, will “line up for us Opening Day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him.” Dipoto continued on to state plainly that the Mariners signed Crawford to be a shortstop and that “that’s what we intend to do.”

One could argue the cleanest fit of the four aforementioned shortstops would be Turner, who is the only one of the four to appear in Major League games as a second baseman. Turner was a full-time second baseman as recently as the second half of 2021, when he transitioned to the right side of the diamond so that the Dodgers could accommodate both Corey Seager and Turner after Los Angeles acquired him from the Nationals.

None of Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson has played on the right side of the infield in their careers, although they all have extended experience at the infield’s most demanding position. Trevor Story had also never previously played the keystone, but he agreed to move over in deference to Bogaerts upon signing with the Red Sox last offseason. Whether any of the big four shortstops this time would do so while letting Crawford keep shortstop isn’t presently known, but Dipoto and his staff seem likely to inquire with everyone in that group.

Haniger, meanwhile, will hit free agency after spending the past five seasons in Seattle. M’s general manger Justin Hollander was effusive in his praise for the 31-year-old outfielder and said the organization will remain in contact with his representatives at Apex Baseball (via Divish). At the same time, he noted that Haniger “wants to gauge what else is out there” on the open market during his first trip to free agency.

It’s not the best platform season for Haniger, who missed a couple months with a high ankle sprain. He ultimately appeared in 57 games and hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances. That’s above-average offense but a step back from his 39-homer, .253/.318/.485 campaign in 2021. Haniger is eligible for a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but the relative down platform year and the M’s stockpile of controllable outfielders make it seem likely they’ll allow him to hit free agency unencumbered by a QO.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Hosmer, Casas, Coaching Staff, Catcher

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This afternoon, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, GM Brian O’Halloran, president Sam Kennedy, and manager Alex Cora spoke with the media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic) to put a wrap on the 2022 season and provide clarity for the team’s offseason moves.

The quartet made it clear that Xander Bogaerts is a top priority, with Bloom stating that the Red Sox are “going to work really hard” at creating a deal with the long-term shortstop. Bloom continued, adding that he hopes that the Red Sox can get a deal done before the Bogaerts opts out and that the Bogaerts deal is “something that we can work on right away.”

Bogaerts had previously signed a six-year, $120MM extension in 2019 with an opt out after the 2022 season. The star shortstop has not officially stated whether he will exercise the opt out, but he’s a lock to do so and earn far more on the open market. Bogaerts said yesterday he and the team have not had any recent extension talks.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s longest-tenured player, having made his debut as a 20-year-old in August 2013 and winning two World Series with the club. Since his debut, the recently turned 30-year-old has continued to develop and post strong results, slashing .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 38 doubles in the 2022 season. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has posted a .301/.373/.508 slash line for a strong .880 OPS with 105 home runs, earning three All-Star berths and MVP consideration in the previous four seasons, finishing in fifth during the 2019 season.

If Bogaerts leaves the team, the Red Sox have options internally. Trevor Story, signed to a six-year, $140MM contract during the 2021 offseason, has considerable experience at short. However, Story has expressed a preference to remain at second and retain Bogaerts at short. Utility men Kiké Hernández and Christian Arroyo both have experience at shortstop, but neither produces an offensive output comparable to Bogaerts.

Additionally, Red Sox’s top prospect Marcelo Mayer, ranked as the seventh-best prospect by MLB.com, just finished his first full minor league season, posting a strong .280/.399/.489 line across Low-A and High-A. MLB.com currently projects the 19-year-old to make his debut during the 2024 season. However, Bloom said that prospects who are years away from the Majors will not impact the Red Sox’s approach to their 2023 team.

Transitioning to Rafael Devers, the slugger said on Wednesday that he’d be open to discussing a long-term deal this offseason (via Rob Bradford of WEEI). The Red Sox and Devers reportedly weren’t close during their Spring Training negotiations, but Bloom reiterated today “we would like to” explore a long-term deal with Devers, per Speier.

Devers is headed into his final season of arbitration eligibility, as Mookie Betts was before his blockbuster trade to the Dodgers. Bloom dismissed the possibility of trading Devers, saying that “isn’t on our radar” and that everything the team has done (farm system and payroll-wise) was conducted so that the team “is never in that position [of trading a player like Betts] again.” Bloom added that while it was always possible he’d receive a trade offer that was “stupid to walk away from,” Devers “is a guy that we want to build around.”

Unlike Bogaerts, the Red Sox have fewer internal options to replace Devers at the hot corner. Arroyo and Hernandez are capable of playing there, but, like is the case with shortstop, neither of them provides the offensive output that Devers brings to the team. Bobby Dalbec could be a contender for third base. However, the righty has yet to consistently produce at the major league level, slashing .232/.298/.456, buoyed by a strong .263/.359/.600 in his late 2020 debut season. Jeter Downs and Ryan Fitzgerald are both Triple-A candidates that could see some time if needed, but both will likely continue their development in Triple-A.

Similar to Meyer, ninth-best prospect Blaze Jordan just finished his first full minor league season. Across Low-A and High-A, the 19-year-old posted a combined .289/.363/.445 line. Jordan is also projected to make his debut during the 2024 season, which may be sped up to align with a Devers departure.

Moving to the other side of the infield, Bloom touched on the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Triston Casas. “I don’t know yet,” he admitted when asked if there was room on the roster for two left-handed first basemen, per Christopher Smith of Mass Live. “Obviously, when we got Hoz, we were focused on what he could bring to us right now and not wanting to rush Triston. I think after that, Triston showed us in Triple-A, coming back off that injury once he got settled in, really the best we’ve seen from him or at least I’ve seen since I’ve been here. …  It’s something we’re going to have to look at.”

Hosmer was acquired at the trade deadline and posted a weak .244/.320/.331 line with the Red Sox in 45 at-bats. He arrived with three years remaining on his eight-year, $144MM contract that he signed in 2018 with the Padres, but San Diego is paying down all but the league minimum salary. Hosmer certainly won’t opt of the remaining $39MM on his deal, but Boston could move from the veteran at virtually no financial cost if they wanted to turn to Casas full time.

Casas is Boston’s second-best prospect, after Mayer, and is ranked as the No. 25 prospect by MLB.com. The slugger made his debut in early September and finished the season going 15-for-76 (.197) with 23 strikeouts. However, he had a strong 20% walk rate, a .358 on-base percentage, and sent five balls over the fence. Bloom stated that the Red Sox were happy with how Casas “progressed the last couple months of the season,” noting that “he was a tough at-bat every single time,” and that the team is “excited” to see how he learns from his brief experience in the Show.

Bloom also noted that the Red Sox “fully expect” they’ll look at the possibility of adding to their catching group externally, per Speier. He suggested the Red Sox see Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as having “raised the floor,” but left open the possibility of an impact addition. Willson Contreras is the clear top free agent available at the position, while deadline trade target Sean Murphy could again be made available by the A’s. McGuire has had a strong start to his Red Sox tenure, slashing a strong .337/.377/.500 for a .877 OPS with three homers in 98 at-bats. However, these high numbers are inflated by an astounding .411 BABIP. Wong has been less productive, posting a .188/.273/.315  line, with a high 28.6% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, Cora announced that the Red Sox hope to bring back their entire coaching staff for the next season, per Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. However, it’s possible some members of the staff could get a chance to interview for managerial positions this winter. Bench coach Will Venable, in particular, has been a frequent candidate for managerial jobs in past offseasons.

Bloom: Bogaerts Is Red Sox’ Top Priority

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6:01pm: Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that members of Boston’s ownership group have met with Bogaerts over the past week and expressed similar sentiments privately to Bloom’s public comments about the club viewing Bogaerts as its top priority. Those informal talks didn’t involve Bogaerts’ reps at the Boras Corporation, and McAdam writes that no specific contractual numbers were exchanged.

1:45pm: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said at today’s end-of-season presser that a new contract for Bogaerts is the team’s top priority, and the process of attempting to extend him will begin immediately (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Boston hopes to secure a new deal with Bogaerts before he can even formally exercise his opt-out provision, five days after the World Series ends.

12:45pm: Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the three years and $60MM remaining on his contract after the postseason concludes, said following the final game of the season that he hasn’t had any recent talks with the Red Sox about a new contract (link via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). He’d indicated back in May that he was open to talks during the season. Bogaerts is planning to head home to Aruba in the next few days and enjoy a mental reset after a long season. “I need it more than a lot of years I’ve been here,” Bogaerts said of his upcoming time at home.

The 2022 season was a difficult one for the Red Sox, who went from missing the 2021 World Series by one game to a last-place finish in the American League East. Boston dealt with myriad injuries, as key names like Chris Sale, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha  and Enrique Hernandez all spent ample time on the shelf. That said, there were far more than injuries at play. The Sox were hammered by bullpen issues all season, struggled to find quality rotation work beyond the quartet of Eovaldi, Wacha, Nick Pivetta and Rich Hill, and saw several hitters (e.g. Hernandez, Story, Bobby Dalbec, Alex Verdugo and J.D. Martinez) fall shy of their previous levels of contribution.

To a small extent, Bogaerts was part of that offensive downturn. Although he was excellent on the whole, hitting .307/.377/.456 in 631 plate appearances, he hit “only” 15 home runs this season — his lightest showing in the power department since 2017 (both in terms of home run total and ISO). Bogaerts saw declines in his exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, further supporting the dip in extra-base pop. That said, Bogaerts also picked up the pace in the season’s final couple months, and he and Rafael Devers were still the team’s two best players by a wide margin.

Bogaerts’ postgame comments yesterday contained two repeated themes: he hopes to remain with the Red Sox — the only organization he’s ever known — but is also a different player and person than he was when he signed his original contract extension. Bogaerts said at multiple points that he has grown and matured in recent seasons, adding that he’s “in a different mentality now than I was a couple years ago.”

Bogaerts is a veritable lock to opt out and test free agency. Nothing he said yesterday suggested anything to the contrary, and while the dip in power may be something of a red flag for interested teams, it’s only fair to point out that said downturn was accompanied by a major uptick in his defensive grades. Bogaerts posted negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average in each of the four seasons heading into 2022 but was strong across the board at shortstop in 2022 by measure of DRS (4), OAA (5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (5.4).

That could work to his favor in combating the narrative that he’ll need to move to either third base or second base — perhaps sooner than later. Some suitors may still prefer him at another position, and a willingness to play elsewhere can certainly bolster one’s market — just ask Story or Marcus Semien — but the 2022 campaign is a point in his favor if Bogaerts is intent on remaining at shortstop for the foreseeable future.

Regardless of his defensive home, Bogaerts’ bat should carry him to a longer-term, more-lucrative deal than the club-friendly extension he originally signed with the Sox a few years back. He’s been at least 29% better than average at the plate in each of the past five seasons, by measure of wRC+, posting a combined .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 long balls in that time. He’s also been quite durable, incurring just one injury (a small crack in his ankle in 2018) and playing in 91% of the Red Sox’ total games in that half-decade span.

The Red Sox’ public position on the matter has repeatedly been that the team hopes to sign Bogaerts, though the most recent extension offer from the team casts doubt on the plausibility of that outcome. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts one additional year at a price of $30MM back in Spring Training. That’d have brought Bogaerts to four years and $90MM in total commitment, and it stands to reason that he could more than double that overall guarantee on the open market this winter as he heads into his age-30 season.

Boston has a bit less than $102MM in guaranteed contracts already on next year’s books, although Bogaerts accounts for $20MM of that sum. By 2024, they’ll be down to about $57MM (sans Bogaerts), and by 2025, Story’s contract is the last notable guarantee remaining on the books. The team is perhaps optimistically earmarking some payroll space for a Devers extension, but it’s plenty feasible that all three of Story, Bogaerts and Devers could fit onto the payroll — particularly for a big-market club with little in the way of other major guarantees for other players beyond the 2024 season.

If and when Bogaerts opts out, he’ll be eligible to receive a qualifying offer.  He’ll surely receive and reject that, positioning the Red Sox to receive some compensation if he departs as a free agent. However, because the Red Sox finished the 2022 season north of the $230MM luxury tax line (by a reported margin of about $4.5MM), they’d stand to receive a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next summer’s draft — as opposed to the pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 that they’d have otherwise received.

AL East Notes: Story, Bogaerts, LeMahieu, Quinn, Schneider

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Red Sox infielder Trevor Story has only played 94 games this season due to various injuries and doesn’t have much time left to add to that total. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that the earliest Story could come back from the IL is the club’s final series against the Rays, which begins October 3.

Story’s health won’t impact the 2022 season at this point as the club is eliminated from postseason contention, but it will be significant for the 2023 club. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts can opt out of his contract this offseason and is widely expected to do so. Boston will then have to decide on what their middle infield plan is for next year. Extension talks in the spring reportedly didn’t make any progress and Rob Bradford of WEEI relays word from Bogaerts that talks haven’t picked back up as of yet.

The club could theoretically move Story back to shortstop, where he played for years while with the Rockies, and then give second base to Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang or someone else. However, that plan will come with some uncertainty. Story dealt with shoulder issues in 2021, making 11 throwing errors that year. Some in the industry felt he was better suited to second base, which is where the Sox have had him this year. He seems to have taken well to the position change, racking up five Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average despite barely playing half a season. If the club decides that Story has found a good home at the keystone, they would then have to figure out who’s taking over at short.

Some other tidbits from the AL Beast…

  • The Yankees could activate DJ LeMahieu from the IL tomorrow, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “We’re about at that point of, let’s go give this thing a go,” manager Aaron Boone tells Hoch. LeMahieu has been out of action for more than three weeks due to a toe injury, which put a halt to another fine season at the plate for the 34-year-old. He’s hit .262/.358/.381 for a wRC+ of 117 while providing quality defense at first, second and third base. All told, he’s produced three wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, making this the eighth straight season of him getting to 1.9 fWAR or higher. The Yankees have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and are virtually guaranteed to finish atop the AL East and earn a bye past the first round. If LeMahieu is indeed able to rejoin the team tomorrow, he will have a week to get some at-bats and get back into game shape before the regular season concludes.
  • Rays outfielder Roman Quinn has joined the Triple-A Durham Bulls to begin a rehab assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Quinn played well in 21 games for the Rays, hitting .262/.340/.305 for a wRC+ of 121 before landing on the IL due to a knee contusion. He hasn’t hit for much in the majority of his time in the big leagues but has always been useful due to his speed and defense. The Rays are likely headed for the postseason as they currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot and could potentially find Quinn’s skillset to be useful off the bench.
  • The Blue Jays fired Charlie Montoyo from his manager role earlier this year and gave John Schneider the position on an interim basis. The Jays have generally fared well since the move, going 41-25 since he was pushed up to the top job in the dugout. That might be enough for the club to simply remove the “interim” tag for next season, though a final decision is not being made public just yet. “He’s certainly a long-term fit,” general manager Ross Atkins tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, though also indicating they will make a formal decision at a later date. Matheson opines that Schneider will be sticking around, though it seems official proclamations will have to wait.

Giants Interested In Free Agent Shortstops This Offseason

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The Giants could be one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, given their limited payroll commitments and many areas of need. The club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently spoke about how “everything is on the table” this winter, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they would “love” to go after one of the top shortstop free agents if they don’t sign Aaron Judge.

Judge will undoubtedly be the top free agent on the market, based on his career track record and incredible platform season. He’s already hit 55 home runs on the year and has produced an overall batting line of .307/.410/.679. That amounts to an unbelievable 202 wRC+, indicating Judge has somehow been 102% better than the league average hitter. When combined with solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, he’s already racked up 9.3 wins above replacement on the season in the estimation of FanGraphs and 8.7 at Baseball Reference.

Given that Judge grew up in the Bay Area, he’s often been speculatively connected to the Giants, though it would take a sizeable commitment on the team’s part for that to come to fruition. Back in April, Judge and the Yankees failed to reach an agreement on an extension, with the slugger reportedly turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM deal. Judge was apparently looking for $36MM over nine or ten years, a range of $324-360MM. Now that Judge is having his best season yet and will soon be able to court offers from the 29 other teams, it’s entirely possible that he will now try to do even better than that.

The Giants haven’t operated at anywhere near that level since Zaidi took over in November of 2018, having not yet given out a contract longer than three years in his tenure. However, that means that the team’s ledger is fairly clear, giving the club the opportunity to change course. There’s only about $89MM committed for next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players like Mike Yastrzemski or Logan Webb, but it does include $22.5MM for Carlos Rodon, who is almost certainly going to opt out and return to free agency. They have just over $20MM committed to 2024 and nothing for 2025 and beyond. Given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and have been as high as $200MM in 2018, there’s room for a big splash if they want to make it.

If the club can’t successfully bring Judge back to the neighborhood, it seems that pursuing a shortstop will be another option they will consider. Of course, the club already has a shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has been a mainstay there for over a decade, having made his debut in 2011. Last year was a revelation for Crawford, as he suddenly produced the best campaign of his career after a few rough seasons. He hit .298/.373/.522 in 2021, producing a 138 wRC+ that was 25 points better than his previous career high. When combined with his excellent defensive work, he produced 6.3 wins above replacement, in the estimation of FanGraphs, easily eclipsing his previous high of 4.4.

In the midst of that excellent showing, the Giants and Crawford agreed to a two-year, $32MM extension, though the first season has been a disappointment. Crawford has been battling a knee injury for most of the year, going on the IL twice because of it. When healthy enough to take the field, he hasn’t been able to produce at anywhere near his 2021 output. He’s hitting .226/.305/.346 on the season for a wRC+ of 85, with his defensive numbers also not as impressive as last year.

Crawford still has one year remaining on that extension but will be turning 36 in January. Given his age, knee issues and diminished performance, it seems the Giants are willing to consider a bold move to strengthen their infield. Since the field of available shortstops is going to be strong again this year, it might be prudent to strike early, even if it means Crawford and another shortstop sharing the roster for one season. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are both on the cusp of free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts both expected to opt out of their respective contracts and join them.

The Giants have also been significantly held back by their defense this year, with a collective -30 Outs Above Average and -33 Defensive Runs Saved, both of those numbers placing them 28th in the majors. Ultimate Zone Rating gives them a -28.6, which is 29th. Second base has been a particularly rough area, with the team’s collective numbers at the keystone coming in at -5 OAA (25th), -15 DRS (29th) and -2.1 UZR (21st). Having a shortstop-quality defender take over at second base, either Crawford or an outside addition, might be a good way for the club to take a step forward next year, especially with the ban on extreme defensive shifts going into place next season.

Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores have taken the bulk of playing time at second base this season, though each is capable of playing other positions and arguably better utilized away from second. Estrada has a -10 DRS at second and Flores a -6 this year, with each of them putting up better numbers at the other positions they’ve played. Estrada has yet to reach arbitration and Flores is eschewing free agency after agreeing to a two-year extension, reported earlier today.

Each of the Turner/Swanson/Correa/Bogaerts group will likely command a lesser contract than Judge, though that doesn’t mean they will be cheap. All four of them are currently younger than 30 years old, with Xander crossing that threshold on October 1. That means each of them will likely be looking for lengthy contracts. This past offseason, Corey Seager got ten years, Marcus Semien got seven, with Trevor Story and Javier Baez each getting six. Correa ended up settling for a three-year deal, though with a high average annual value of $35.1MM and opt-outs after each season. Similar to any Judge contract, the Giants would likely have to break their pattern of sticking to short-term deals in order to make an impact in the shortstop market. Should they miss out on all of the upper tier options, there’s a significant drop to the next level, which will be occupied by players like Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus.

All told, it should be a fascinating winter for the Giants and their fans. The club has been keeping its books mostly clear for years and has stayed busy on the waiver wire, grabbing just about any role player they could find. That’s left the roster in a position where they have solid depth all around the roster but a lack of truly outstanding players. 10 different position players have produced at least 0.5 fWAR for the Giants on the season but none higher than 2.3 so far. Perhaps the conditions are right for them to raise the ceiling in the months to come.

Phillies Expected To Target Xander Bogaerts In Free Agency

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Though there’s plenty left to be decided in the Phillies’ 2022 season, it’s never too early to speculate about what the club might have in store for the winter or for the 2023 campaign.  To this end, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “the Phillies will be eager suitors” for Xander Bogaerts, provided that Bogaerts (as expected) opts out of his contract with the Red Sox.

Reports already surfaced in June that Philadelphia would be targeting the shortstop position this winter, with the Phils looking to make a splash in a free agent class that is expected to include the likes of Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Carlos Correa.  Bogaerts and Correa are seen as virtual locks to exercise opt-out clauses, and Turner and Swanson are both scheduled to hit the open market (though Swanson and the Braves are exploring an extension).

Bogaerts’ talent makes him a natural target for any team that wants a big upgrade at shortstop, and the Phillies are perhaps an even more logical fit due to the past ties between Bogaerts and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  After all, Dombrowski was Boston’s president of baseball operations when Bogaerts signed his current contract — a six-year, $120MM extension that included an opt-out clause following the current season.  Bogaerts would be leaving three years and $60MM on the table to opt out, but is no doubt he’d easily top that number on the open market.

Of course, shortstop is not quite the problem position it was for the Phillies at the start of the season.  After a very slow start in his rookie year, Bryson Stott has started to acclimate to the Show, hitting .305/.349/.488 with five home runs over his last 175 plate appearances.  However, Stott has mostly split his time between second base and shortstop, with defensive metrics (albeit in a sample size of not even one full season) indicating that his glove plays better at second base.  While Bogaerts’ own glovework at shortstop has been a question mark for years, he is currently enjoying the best defensive season of his career, with positive grades from the Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR/150 metrics.

If the Phillies were to sign Bogaerts and move Stott to second base, that leaves Jean Segura as the odd man out.  The Phils hold a $17MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Segura for the 2023 season, and Segura is posting his typical level of offensive production, though he has only 301 plate appearances due to a fractured finger.  Another option would be to retain Segura, and Stott and Segura at second and third base with Bogaerts as the new shortstop.  This would displace the defensive-challenged Alec Bohm from third base, and Bohm could perhaps be tried at first base, and Rhys Hoskins — who is a free agent after 2023 — could become a trade chip.

There are lots of ways the Phillies could approach things this winter, and payroll will also be a factor in a pursuit of Bogaerts or any other top-flight shortstop.  A lot of salary (Segura, Didi Gregorius, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, Corey Knebel, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia) could come off the books in the form of pending free agents and declined club options, but that also leaves a lot of roster holes to be filled.  As per Roster Resource, the Phils are slated to pay the luxury tax in 2022, and thus they’d have to pay a higher penalty in draft pick compensation for signing a qualifying-offer free agent (i.e. Bogaerts).

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