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Paddack, Snell Might Not Pitch Again In 2021

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It “seems more likely than not” that Blake Snell and Chris Paddack won’t pitch again for the Padres in 2021, sources tell Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  With just two weeks left in the regular season, time is running out for either pitcher to return from the 10-day injured list.  Paddack was retroactively placed on the IL on September 12 due to right elbow inflammation, while a groin strain sidelined Snell on September 15.

Snell isn’t likely to pitch again unless San Diego is still playing into the postseason, while Paddack has some smaller chance of a quicker return, as he said his elbow felt fine after a game of catch yesterday.  Still, Paddack was only throwing lightly from a 75-foot distance, so it remains to be seen if he can progress quickly enough to get back on the mound before the regular season is over.  “Regardless of how [Paddack] is feeling the Padres almost certainly won’t even consider him pitching again in 2021 if they are not squarely in contention,” Acee writes, and that latter scenario is starting to look more remote.  The reeling Padres are 5-10 in September, and have dropped 2.5 games behind the Cardinals for the last NL wild card slot.

Jake Cronenworth Expected To Return This Weekend

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After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list.  It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup.  Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers.  Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Padres Sign Vince Velasquez, Place Blake Snell On Injured List

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The Padres announced they’ve signed Vince Velasquez to a minor league contract. He’ll be selected to the big league roster to start a game against the Cardinals this weekend, per the team. They’ll need to make active and 40-man roster moves before his start. In related news, San Diego placed lefty Blake Snell on the 10-day injured list due to a left adductor groin strain.

Velasquez becomes the second recently-released pitcher added by San Diego in as many days. The Friars signed reliever Ross Detwiler to a major league deal yesterday, just a few days after he was cut loose by the Marlins. Those moves come a month after San Diego picked up Jake Arrieta once he was released by the Cubs. It has been an “all hands on deck” approach to a pitching staff that has been beaten up badly by injuries throughout the year.

It hasn’t been an especially productive season for Velasquez, who has only managed 81 2/3 innings over 21 appearances (including 17 starts). He’s pitched to a career-worst 5.95 ERA in that time despite a 23.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike percentage that each check in right around the league average.

That’s mostly a reflection of Velasquez’s walk and home run troubles, issues that plagued him throughout his six years in Philadelphia. He’s doled out free passes to a lofty 12.5% of opponents, the highest single-season mark of his career. And Velasquez’s always low ground-ball rate has dipped to 33.3% this year, nearly ten percentage points below the league average. That’s contributed to his serving up seventeen homers (1.87 HR/9), although the San Diego front office is surely hopeful a move to a less homer-friendly ballpark could alleviate that somewhat.

Velasquez’s recent struggles led to his release from Philadelphia yesterday. At this stage of the season, competent big league starting pitching is almost impossible to acquire, so the Friars moved quickly to add the 29-year-old once he passed through waivers. Velasquez had been on the injured list due to blister troubles at the time of his release, but he’d already made a pair of minor league rehab appearances. The team’s announcement that he’ll start this weekend suggests he’s healthy and ready to step back into MLB action.

Logging some innings will be critical for a San Diego team that has lost a pair of starters to the IL in recent days. Chris Paddack landed on the shelf earlier this week, and Snell joins him after leaving his start on Sunday night after just eleven pitches. The Friars were down to Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the rotation, so Velasquez steps in to add some length and hopefully make a few productive starts down the stretch. The Phillies will be on the hook for the balance of his $4MM salary, with the Padres’ paying him just the prorated portion of the league minimum.

As with yesterday’s Detwiler signing, picking up Velasquez is solely about improving the Padres’ odds of grabbing a Wild Card spot this year. Both players joined the organization after August 31 and would be ineligible for postseason play. They each have enough service time to qualify for free agency again this winter. So they’re both being brought in for the next three weeks only, with San Diego trying to outplay the Cardinals, Reds, Phillies and Mets for the National League’s final postseason spot. St. Louis is in pole position, holding a half-game advantage over Cincinnati and a one-game lead on the Padres.

Padres Sign Ross Detwiler To Major League Contract

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The Padres announced they’ve signed reliever Ross Detwiler to a major league contract. Righty Shaun Anderson was optioned to Triple-A El Paso to clear active roster space. San Diego already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no move was necessary in that regard.

Detwiler had previously spent the entire 2021 campaign with the Marlins, who signed him to a one-year, $850K guarantee over the offseason. The veteran southpaw spent the year as a bullpen option for Miami manager Don Mattingly, working primarily in lower-leverage situations. Detwiler made 46 appearances (including five starts as an opener) and worked 45 1/3 innings of 4.96 ERA ball.

It has been an interesting season for Detwiler, who has revamped his plan of attack. Generally a low-strikeout, ground-ball oriented hurler, he’s tweaked his pitch mix and gotten wildly different results than he has in years past. Detwiler has cut his sinker usage nearly in half in favor of a more four-seam heavy approach. That has resulted in a career-best strikeout rate (28%), with hitters taking a career-high 19.2% of his offerings for called strikes. But it’s come with an accompanying dip in ground balls, as Detwiler has gone from inducing grounders on more than half the balls in play against him between 2019-20 down to 39.7% this season.

With Detwiler nearing free agency anyways, the non-contending Marlins designated him for assignment and released him over the weekend. Miami will remain on the hook for the majority of Detwiler’s remaining salary, with the Friars responsible for paying him only the prorated portion of the league minimum for his final couple weeks of work.

Detwiler signs with San Diego after August 31, so he won’t be eligible for the Padres’ postseason roster if the team makes it to the playoffs. The 35-year-old will get an opportunity to pitch in meaningful games down the stretch, though, as he tries to help the Friars get into the postseason before again reaching free agency this winter.

For the Padres, there’s no real harm in bringing Detwiler aboard. They enter play tonight tied with the Cardinals, half a game behind the Reds for the National League’s final playoff spot. Their season quite obviously hangs in the balance over their final nineteen games, but the pitching staff continues to deal with injuries. Chris Paddack landed on the injured list last night, and Blake Snell left his most recent start early. Detwiler’s not a true rotation option at this stage of his career, but he’s capable of shouldering an inning or two to deepen an overall pitching staff that might have to rely on a few bullpen games down the stretch.

Padres Place Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Padres announced they’ve placed starter Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, due to right elbow inflammation. Shaun Anderson has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s yet another injury blow for the Friars’ rotation, which has dealt with IL stints at various points of the season for everyone except Joe Musgrove. Paddack himself missed a month with a strained left oblique, and the presence of an elbow issue is perhaps even more alarming on the surface. Fortunately, manager Jayce Tingler suggested the team believes Paddack could return after missing just one start (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Paddack has had a difficult season, pitching to a 5.07 ERA over 108 1/3 innings. He’s posted strikeout (21.6%) and ground-ball (42.9%) rates not far off the league average, though, while his 4.8% walk percentage is stellar. Paddack’s resulting 4.05 SIERA is far less unsightly than his actual ERA, as the right-hander has stranded an abnormally low 60.7% of runners that have reached base against him. With better sequencing, Paddack should be better able to keep runs off the board moving forward — assuming, of course, he returns to good health in short order.

The Padres are left to rely on Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Jake Arrieta in the starting staff. Snell left last night’s start early with adductor tightness, leaving it in question whether he’ll be able to make his next start. The Friars will continue to have to patch things together in the rotation over the next few weeks, as they battle the Reds and Cardinals (with the Phillies and Mets also lurking not far behind) for the National League’s final playoff spot.

Injury Notes: Snell, Boyd, deGrom, Nimmo

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The big storylines from today’s Padres-Dodgers game all revolve around Max Scherzer. Not only did he become just the 19th pitcher in Major League history to reach 3,000 career strikeouts, he also threw an immaculate inning and carried a perfect game into the eighth inning. However, the opposing clubhouse didn’t have nearly as much to celebrate. Padres reliever Austin Adams tied a modern-day record for hit batsmen in a season and Blake Snell left the game after just 11 pitches with what the club later announced as “left adductor tightness”, also known as a groin injury.

This is very unfortunate timing for both the club and Snell, as they are in a crowded playoff race and he was just starting to turn his frustrating season around. Following a miserable outing against Oakland on July 28th, Snell was sitting on an ERA of 5.44 through 84 1/3 innings, with an elevated walk rate of 14.3%, well above this year’s league average of 8.7%. However, since that time, the lefty seemed to have got into a groove and righted the ship, throwing 43 2/3 innings with 65 strikeouts and an ERA of 1.85, along with a much-improved walk rate of 8.6%.

The severity of the injury isn’t clear at this point. But with the club currently tied with the Reds for the last National League Wild Card spot, with the Cardinals just a game back and other teams looming, every remaining game is tremendously important. Rotation health has been an ongoing issue for the club in the past few months, so much so that the club signed Jake Arrieta a few weeks ago to try and paper over the injuries. However, Arrieta landed on the IL himself and hasn’t been terribly effective in his two appearances with the Friars. Losing Snell for any amount of time, especially when he was throwing so well, would surely be a blow to their chances.

Some other injury updates…

  • Matt Boyd is meeting with elbow specialist Keith Meister, Tigers manager AJ Hinch tells Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “He is scheduled to see Dr. Meister in Dallas and then we’ll get further evaluations and opinions and see what’s next for him,” Hinch said. While a meeting doesn’t necessarily spell doom, this is a potentially concerning development, given that Meister is often associated with Tommy John surgery. McCosky points out that Meister recently performed the procedure for Tigers catcher Jake Rogers, but the doctor has also recently taken the knife to Tyler Glasnow and many others. If any kind of serious surgery is required, it would be very poor timing, given that Boyd is currently slated to reach free agency after the 2022 season. The 30-year-old is playing this year on a $6.5MM salary and can be controlled for one more year via arbitration. Boyd’s name has been often mentioned as a trade candidate for the rebuilding Tigers in recent years, though a deal has yet to come to fruition. A lengthy surgery rehab could further dent any trade value he has left and also hurt Boyd’s chances to cash in on his quality career via free agency. Since the start of 2016, Boyd had given the Tigers 727 innings with an ERA of 4.75, accruing 10.2 fWAR in that time.
  • The Mets provided yet another vague update about Jacob deGrom, as manager Luis Rojas tells Anthony DiComo of MLB.com he is scheduled to throw off a mound, “maybe this week.” deGrom was on his way to a brilliant season before elbow issues put him on the shelf in July. Through 92 innings this season, he has an ERA of 1.08 with an excellent walk rate of 3.4% and an absurd strikeout rate of 45.1%. Given that there’s only three weeks remaining in the season, it seems that the chances of those winding up as his final numbers are growing.
  • In better news for the Mets, the prognosis for outfielder Brandon Nimmo seems to have improved. DiComo gives some details of the onfield workout Nimmo took part in today and says that Nimmo believes he can return to face Philadelphia, whom the Mets start a three-game series with on Friday. Going into tonight’s game against the Yankees, the Mets are 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and would surely love to get Nimmo back into the mix to help with their postseason push. In 77 games this year, the 28-year-old has hit .302/420/.415, an excellent wRC+ of 139.

Jake Cronenworth Fractures Finger

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Padres star infielder Jake Cronenworth has a small fracture on his left ring finger, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’s unclear at this time how long Cronenworth might be out. A lengthy absence would be a crushing blow for the Friars as they look to stave off the Reds for the last playoff spot in the National League.

Cronenworth has built upon a surprising rookie season in 2020 with an All-Star campaign. With a .270/.348/.466 triple slash line, 20 home runs, and 89 runs scored, Cronenworth has been 21 percent better than average with the bat.

His contributions have been particularly valuable paired with high-end defensive versatility. Most of his playing time has come at the keystone, but he’s also filled in at first base and shortstop at key points this season. Most notably, he has served as the Padres’ starting shortstop ever since the team moved Fernando Tatis Jr. to the outfield.

If Cronenworth misses significant time, Ha-Seong Kim could take over at short. Kim hasn’t been as productive with the bat as expected, but he has received strong marks for his glovework, accruing eight Defensive Runs Saved in just 243 innings.

Marlins Claim Taylor Williams Off Waivers From Padres

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The Marlins announced they’ve claimed reliever Taylor Williams off waivers from the Padres. In a corresponding move, Miami designated infielder Deven Marrero for assignment.

Williams has pitched in the majors in each of the past five seasons. The right-hander broke in with the Brewers in 2017 and landed with the Mariners last year after three seasons with Milwaukee. San Diego acquired Williams late last season but he made just one appearance down the stretch. The 30-year-old pitched in five games with the Padres this April, working 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and three walks. He landed on the injured list with right knee inflammation midway through the season’s first month, though, and he remained on the IL until September 1.

The Friars designated Williams just a couple days after reinstating him from the IL. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning San Diego had to expose him to waivers in order to remove him from the active roster. The Marlins stepped in to add Williams for almost no cost, but they’ll too now have to keep him in the majors of risk losing him on waivers themselves.

Over the course of his career, Williams has a 5.17 ERA in 92 1/3 innings of relief. His strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 10.5%) are right around league average for bullpen arms, and he’s induced whiffs on a solid 12.9% of his career offerings. Those peripherals suggest Williams could yet settle in as a decent middle relief option, at the very least. If the Fish keep him on the roster, he can be controlled through 2024 via arbitration.

Miami has now designated Marrero five times this year. The Marlins have selected him to the 40-man roster whenever the club finds itself in need of additional infield depth, but he hasn’t stuck on the big league roster for long. Marrero cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Jacksonville each of the previous four times, so it seems likely he’ll stick around in the high minors yet again.

Padres Designate Taylor Williams For Assignment

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The Padres announced they’ve designated reliever Taylor Williams for assignment. The move opens a spot on the active roster for Jake Arrieta, who has been activated from the 10-day injured list to start tonight’s game against the Astros.

The Padres didn’t need to create a vacancy on the 40-man roster but Williams is out of minor league option years, meaning he had to either stick on the big league team or be exposed to waivers. San Diego’s 40-man total now sits at 39.

Williams himself just returned from the injured list Wednesday, when active rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players. Knee inflammation had kept the right-hander out since mid-April, and he didn’t get into a game upon being reinstated this month. Williams’ big league action this season consists of 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball over the first few weeks. That comes after he threw just one inning for the Friars in 2020 after being acquired from the Mariners last August for pitching prospect Matt Brash.

In addition to his time with Seattle and San Diego, Williams spent a few seasons with the Brewers. Over parts of five big league campaigns, the 30-year-old owns a 5.17 ERA with strikeout (24.3%) and walk (10.5%) rates not far off the league average for relievers. The Padres will now place Williams on waivers, where a bullpen-needy club could consider adding him for the final few weeks of the regular season.

Arrieta returns two weeks after suffering a left hamstring strain during his first start as a Padre. Between the Cubs and San Diego, the former Cy Young award winner has struggled to a 7.13 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

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