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Giants To Select Matt Gage

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The Giants are selecting the contract of left-handed reliever Matt Gage, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’ll need to open spots on both the 26-man and 40-man rosters to make his promotion official.

Gage, 32, signed a minor league deal with San Francisco early this month after he elected free agency following an outright by the Tigers. He’s tossed 5 1/3 shutout innings with the Giants’ Triple-A club — a nice follow-up to the 5 2/3 shutout innings he delivered for Detroit’s big league club this season. Gage has pitched in parts of three MLB campaigns but has only 25 1/3 innings under his belt despite a tidy 1.42 earned run average in that time. He’s fanned 22.5% of his opponents against a 10.8% walk rate.

With Erik Miller on the injured list due to an elbow sprain, the Giants have veterans Joey Lucchesi and Scott Alexander as lefty options in skipper Bob Melvin’s bullpen. Lucchesi has pitched well, holding opponents to three runs in 10 innings. Alexander has pitched just 1 1/3 innings through two appearances and allowed one run. The Giants just added him to the roster shortly before the break.

Gage is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to either stick in the big league bullpen or else be designated for assignment and placed back on waivers. The Giants have a clear need for some left-handed bullpen help, so he should have an opportunity, though president of baseball operations Buster Posey and general manager Zack Minasian could also look to the trade market in the next two weeks to bring in a more established left-handed bullpen presence.

Guardians’ Luis Ortiz Placed On Leave Due To “Ongoing League Investigation”

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July 18: The league and the the MLBPA have jointly agreed to extend Ortiz’s leave through Aug. 31. The investigation is still ongoing.

July 3, 11:00am: Zack Meisel and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the investigation pertains to gambling.

9:35am: Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz has been placed on non-disciplinary paid  leave through the All-Star break due to an “ongoing league investigation,” according to announcements from both the team and the league. The leave was jointly agreed upon by the league and the Players Association. The Guardians’ statement noted that they are not permitted to comment further at this time. Neither the league nor the team provided specific details on the nature of the investigation.

Ortiz, 26, is in his first season with Cleveland after coming over from the Pirates in exchange for first baseman Spencer Horwitz. He stepped right into the Guardians’ rotation and has started 16 games, tossing 88 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate.

Ortiz had been slated to start tonight’s game for Cleveland, but left-hander Joey Cantillo will make that start instead. He’ll join a rotation also including Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi. The Guardians lost righty Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery earlier this season, while longtime ace Shane Bieber’s return from last year’s Tommy John procedure was slowed by a minor setback. Bieber recently resumed throwing.

Angels To Sign No. 2 Overall Pick Tyler Bremner

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The Angels have agreed to terms on a $7,689,525 bonus with No. 2 overall draft pick Tyler Bremner, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America. That’s more than $2.5MM under the slot value of that second overall pick. They’ve reallocated that chunk of savings to sign over-slot deals with third-round pick Johnny Slawinski, fifth-round pick CJ Gray and 13th-round pick Xavier Mitchell, per Collazo. Slawinski signed for a $2.4975MM bonus — nearly $1.5MM over slot. Gray’s $1.2475MM bonus clocks in $728K over slot. Mitchell’s $872,500 bonus is akin to third-round money.

Bremner, 21, was a surprise pick at No. 2. The UC Santa Barbara product was widely considered a first-round talent but projected to go later down the board. The Halos tend to lean toward polished, quick-to-the-majors college players with their top picks, however, and Bremner largely fits that bill. Plus, the savings on this pick allowed them to make sizable commitments to high school picks like Slawinski, Gray and Mitchell.

Bremner’s junior season in college ball was sharp. He pitched to a 3.49 ERA, fanned 35.6% of his opponents and walked only 6.1% of the batters he faced. FanGraphs ranked him seventh in this year’s draft class, while Bremner ranked 11th at Baseball America, 16th per The Athletic’s Keith Law and 18th both at MLB.com and at ESPN. He draws praise for a mid-90s heater with good sink and a plus changeup that’s effective against both righties and lefties. The general consensus is that he needs work on his slider or perhaps the incorporation of another new pitch, but he’s viewed as a fairly likely mid-rotation arm with the upside to develop into more than that, depending on the development of a third pitch.

Each of Slawinski, Gray and Mitchell ranked within the top 118 prospects on Baseball America’s Top 500 list and within the top 178 talents at MLB.com’s top 200. All three are prep pitchers with considerable ceilings — Slawinski and Mitchell from the left side. Slawinski had been committed to Texas A&M, while Gray was committed to NC State and Mitchell to Texas.

Cubs To Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with right-hander Spencer Turnbull, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He was released by the Blue Jays late last month. It’s not yet clear whether the Boras Corporation client is headed to the Cubs on a big league contract or a minor league deal. Either way, he’ll provide some depth to a rotation that has seen several injuries this season.

The 32-year-old Turnbull enjoyed a strong showing with the 2024 Phillies, pitching to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings but missing ample time on the injured list. He lingered in free agency throughout the entire offseason and only signed with Toronto in early May, well after the season was underway, for a prorated $1.27MM salary. The Jays ultimately received only three appearances for that modest investment. Turnbull struggled in the minors while ramping up and couldn’t get on track in his limited MLB work either, yielding five runs on 12 hits and four walks with four strikeouts in 6 1/3 big league frames.

Turnbull’s velocity never got up to its typical levels, though that’s perhaps not a huge surprise for a late signee who went through an accelerated buildup. The right-hander sat 89.7 mph with his four-seamer in the minors and was up to 90.9 mph in the majors — both noticeably south of the 92 mph he averaged in Philadelphia last year and the 92.9 mph at which he sat with the Tigers in 2023.

Although this year’s performance doesn’t stand out, Turnbull has been a generally productive pitcher when healthy enough to take the mound. He posted a 4.61 ERA and 3.99 FIP in his first full season at the majors with Detroit back in 2019, tossing 148 1/3 frames. From 2020-24, Turnbull improved to a 3.84 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate –albeit in a sample of just 192 innings over that five-year period.

Injuries have regularly interrupted Turnbull’s path to establishing himself as a credible big league starter. He missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and has also had notable Il stints in his career for lat, back, shoulder, forearm and neck injuries. Turnbull has worked primarily as a starter in the majors — 68 starts, 13 relief outings — but still has only 363 innings under his belt due to that deluge of health troubles.

The Cubs aren’t going to blindly count on Turnbull to hold down a rotation spot from this point forth, but he’ll give them another option to evaluate at a time when Justin Steele is done for the season and when Javier Assad (oblique) and Jameson Taillon (calf) are on the injured list. Assad has yet to pitch this season. Chicago also recently optioned young righty Ben Brown to Triple-A amid some notable struggles.

At the moment, the Cubs’ rotation includes Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Colin Rea. Swingman Chris Flexen made a spot start last Friday but has otherwise been used in long relief, where he’s been excellent. The Cubs are widely expected to add at least one starter — if not two — between now and the July 31 trade deadline. The signing of Turnbull doesn’t change that likelihood but does add some further depth in the event of additional injuries to the current staff.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Latest On Cardinals’ Bullpen Trade Candidates

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Cardinals lefty Steven Matz has drawn some trade interest as the July 31 deadline inches closer, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (video link, bullpen talk beginning around the 4:10 mark). “There are a handful of teams at least poking around on Matz,” per Goold. He adds that the Cardinals will also likely be open to offers on righty Phil Maton but would need a very strong offer to trade closer Ryan Helsley, who could receive a qualifying offer if he’s not moved.

[Related: St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Outlook]

Matz, 34, is in the final season of a four-year, $44MM contract. He’s being paid $12MM this season and has about $4.65MM of that sum yet to be paid out. By the time deadline day rolls around, he’ll have about $3.8MM to go on that contract.

While the four-year deal hasn’t panned out as hope — Matz was injured/ineffective in both 2022 and 2024 — the 2025 season has been a good one for the veteran lefty. Matz has pitched well in two starts (nine innings, one run, 11 strikeouts, no walks) but has spent the majority of the season working in a multi-inning relief role. He’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 51 innings overall, fanning 21.4% of his opponents and limiting walks at a terrific 4.3% clip. He’s hit a rough patch of late, allowing nine runs in his past dozen innings, but it’s generally been a nice rebound year for the southpaw.

Goold adds that Matz has drawn interest from teams looking to fill a variety of roles. He obviously has a long track record as a starter and is pitching in multi-inning stints right now. It’d be possible to stretch Matz back out as a relatively under-the-radar target for teams seeking to fortify the back end of the rotation. Conversely, Matz has clear value in his current multi-inning role, and he has the stuff and results to succeed in a more traditional single-inning setup role.

Maton, 32, has been one of the top bargain pickups of the offseason. He surprisingly languished on the free-agent market into March despite a nice 2024 season — really, a nice three-year run from 2022-24 — and ultimately signed for a modest $2MM guarantee with the Cards. He’s been a key arm in the St. Louis bullpen, pitching 35 1/3 innings with a 2.55 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate rate and a 9.5% walk rate. That strikeout rate would be a career-best in a 162-game season.

The lack of interest in Maton may have stemmed from some worrying trends with regard to his velocity. He’s never been a hard-thrower, but last year’s 88.7 mph average on his cutter and 87.5 mph average on his sinker were steps down from the prior season (and a career-worst with regard to his sinker). He’s added about two miles per hour to each pitch in 2025, sitting 90.4 mph on his cutter and 89.5 mph on his sinker.

It’s still below-average velocity, but this is the fourth straight year that Maton has enjoyed success with meager heat on his pitches — and he’s only owed about $774K more of this year’s salary as of this writing ($634K after deadline day). Budget-crunched teams seeking a reliable setup arm should have interest. Maton has already tied a career-high with 18 holds, and he’s picked up a pair of saves as well.

As for the 31-year-old Helsley, he’s enjoying a strong season overall but hasn’t matched his 2024 dominance. Last year, the flamethrowing righty notched a 2.04 ERA with an NL-best 49 saves while fanning 29.7% of his opponents. This season, he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 19 saves. He’s still owed about $3.17MM of this year’s $8.2MM salary (a number that’ll dip to $2.6MM by the day of the deadline itself).

Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $21.05MM. That number figures to rise this season. It’d be a steep price to pay for one year of any reliever, but there’s a good chance Helsley would still reject the QO and look for a lucrative multi-year contract. He won’t command an AAV that strong on a longer-term deal, but this offseason will represent his best chance to cash in on a long-term deal.

There’ll surely be some temptation to accept that sizable one-year deal and test the open market post-2026, without the burden of draft pick compensation, but doing so runs the risk of incurring an injury or major downturn in performance next year. Relief pitching is immensely volatile on a year-to-year basis. There’s also the looming specter of a potential lockout in the 2026-27 offseason, given the Dec. 2026 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. Having a multi-year deal in place is surely preferable to being a free agent in such an uncertain offseason.

If Helsley were to reject a QO and sign for more than $50MM total — which seems quite attainable — the Cardinals would receive a compensatory pick after the first round in the 2026 draft. Any return on Helsley would need to reflect that. It’s also possible the Cardinals have some hope of keeping Helsley, whether via that one-year QO or perhaps by negotiating a multi-year extension after making said offer. Helsley has said in the past that he’d love to stay in St. Louis long-term.

Any decisions on Helsley — and, to a lesser extent, Matz and Maton — will hinge on the Cardinals’ play in the early stages coming out of the All-Star break. At 51-46 on the season, they’re currently 6.5 games back of the division-leading Cubs but only 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Cardinals open the season’s second half with a pivotal three-game road set against a D-backs club in a similar position of needing to string together some wins to avoid a notable deadline sell-off. The Cardinals, 22-26 on the road versus 29-20 at home, will send Andre Pallante, Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas to the mound. Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Merrill Kelly. The Cardinals then head to Colorado for three games before hosting the Padres and Marlins in their final two series prior to the July 31 trade deadline. With a strong performance over the next 12 games, they could opt to hold onto most of their veterans and look to add pieces, while a string of series losses could be the deciding factor in trading away short-term veterans.

The Opener: Key Series To Watch, Wright, Trout

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Here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball this weekend…

1. Fringe contenders gear up for their final deadline push:

We’re 13 days out from the 2025 MLB trade deadline, and there are ten non-playoff clubs within three games of .500 and within six games of a Wild Card berth. The next two weeks of play will be critical, and if any one of those bubble clubs gets out to a tough start coming out of the break, it could tip them toward selling even sooner. A sweep for any of the Rays, Rangers, Twins, Angels, Royals, Guardians, Giants, Cardinals, Reds or D-backs could be backbreaking for their season. Every team in baseball has a three-game series beginning tonight.

Tampa Bay opens the second half hosting a disappointing Orioles club. The Rangers host the MLB-best Tigers. The Twins head to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. The Angels draw a tough task with a road series in Philly. Kansas City is on the road against the Marlins. The Guardians host the A’s. The Giants are set to head to Toronto. The Reds will take on the Mets in Queens. Most interestingly, the Cardinals and D-backs will square off against one another in Arizona — a series matchup that carries potentially major deadline ramifications.

2. Mets to honor David Wright, retire his number:

The Mets will pay tribute to a franchise icon Saturday when they retire David Wright’s No. 5 and induct him into the Mets Hall of Fame. The 42-year-old Wright’s career was cut far shorter than baseball fans — not just Mets fans — would have hoped. Neck, shoulder and spinal injuries derailed the latter stages of Wright’s career and put an end to his playing days when he still had two years remaining on his contract. From 2016-18 — his final active years — Wright only managed to play 77 games.

Prior to that, Wright was a perennial All-Star who won multiple Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. The former No. 38 overall pick was the face of the Mets franchise for upwards of a decade. He made his MLB debut in his age-21 season and hit the ground running with a .293/.332/.525 batting line in 283 plate appearances. Wright received MVP votes in each of the next four seasons, and though he never won Most Valuable Player honors, he enjoyed four top-ten finishes. From 2004-14, Wright ranked among the very best all-around players in MLB. He batted a combined .298/.377/.494 with 230 home runs and 191 steals along the way. Wright’s 50.4 fWAR in that stretch ranked fifth among all major leaguers (pitchers and hitters alike), trailing only Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre.

Wright also represented the United States in both the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics, where he became renowned for his heroics and earned the nickname “Captain America.” Wright ripped a two-run, walk-off single that scored Brian Roberts and Jimmy Rollins to push the U.S. to the semifinal round in ’09, and he broke open a first-round matchup against Italy with a grand slam as part of a massive 2013 performance in the tournament.

The Mets will host a “block party” at Citi Field that’s open to all and begins three hours before Saturday’s 4:10pm ET start time. Wright will be honored in a pre-game ceremony. He’ll become the tenth Met to have his number retired.

3. Milestones on the horizon for Trout:

Turning to another franchise icon, Angels star Mike Trout is on the cusp of reaching some historic round figures in his career. The three-time American League MVP and 11-time All-Star is sitting on 995 runs batted in and 395 home runs. There’s a decent chance that he’ll become just the 308th player in MLB history to reach 1000 RBIs this weekend in Philadelphia. It’s far less likely — though for a player with Trout’s power, not impossible — that he’ll reach 400 homers this weekend. But, Trout’s 400th round-tripper probably isn’t too far off. He’s slugged 17 long balls in just 299 plate appearances this season while batting .238/.365/.471 (127 wRC+). When Trout does cross that 400 threshold, he’ll be just the 59th player to ever get there. Along the way, he’ll pass Joe Carter (396), Dale Murphy (398), Al Kaline (399) and Andres Galarraga (399).

Rangers Trade Dane Dunning To Braves

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The Rangers announced they’ve traded Dane Dunning to the Braves for minor league reliever José Ruiz and cash. Atlanta designated Jesse Chavez for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Ruiz was outrighted last month. Texas’ roster count technically drops to 38 but will climb back to 39 tomorrow when they select the contract of first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

It’s a salary dump for the Rangers. Dunning has fallen out of favor over the past two seasons. The former first-round pick tossed 172 2/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball during the World Series season two years ago. He only managed a 5.31 mark in 95 frames last season. While Texas tendered him a contract, Dunning had to take a very rare arbitration pay cut to ensure the Rangers didn’t move on.

That didn’t get him a spot on the Opening Day roster. The 30-year-old Dunning gave up 10 runs in 11 innings during Spring Training. Texas waived him at the end of camp in the hope that another team would take his $2.66MM salary. No one bit, and he has spent most of the year in Triple-A.

Dunning was called up in April, again cleared waivers in May, and was selected back onto the roster last month. He has been limited to five MLB appearances, all out of the bullpen, and has allowed four runs across 10 2/3 innings. He has worked as a starter in the minors, pitching to a 4.47 ERA over 46 1/3 frames in the Pacific Coast League. Dunning has punched out 24% of Triple-A opponents against a 9% walk rate.

The Rangers were unlikely to give Dunning anything more than mop-up work. He had fallen behind Patrick Corbin, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker at the back of the rotation. Texas expects to get Jon Gray back from a wrist fracture in the next week or two. Dunning has a much better path to a rotation spot on an Atlanta team that has been decimated by injuries.

They’re without Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver. They’ve given 15 starts to Bryce Elder, who has a near-6.00 ERA. Davis Daniel made his first start of the season just before the All-Star Break. He’s the nominal fourth starter behind Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes and Elder. They pressed 20-year-old Didier Fuentes into MLB work for which he was clearly not ready. He’s now back in Triple-A.

Dunning has been a capable back-end starter in the past. It seems he’ll work in long relief initially, as the Braves tabbed swingman Joey Wentz to start on Saturday against the Yankees. Dunning still has an option remaining. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at least once more. There’s a decent chance the Braves will non-tender him regardless, but they didn’t give up anything of note to acquire him.

Ruiz, 30, is a journeyman reliever. He managed a 3.71 ERA while striking out 24% of opponents over 52 appearances for the Phillies last season. Things went off the rails this year, as he has allowed 17 runs in 16 1/3 MLB innings. Atlanta claimed him off waivers from Philadelphia but waived him themselves after he gave up three runs in one inning during his second appearance with the club. He has since tossed 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball in Triple-A. The Rangers assigned him to their top affiliate in Round Rock.

The Phillies and Ruiz agreed to a $1.225MM arbitration salary. The Braves assumed that when they claimed him. Atlanta is paying down an unspecified portion of that sum. Dunning is owed roughly $1MM for the rest of the season, while Ruiz is owed about $450K. A direct swap without cash considerations would’ve knocked about $550K off the Rangers’ books. They’ll save a bit more than that depending on the amount of money that the Braves are covering.

It’s a small amount by MLB standards. However, as MLBTR pointed out in tonight’s preview of the Rangers deadline for Front Office subscribers, Texas should be motivated to cut spending around the fringe of the roster. Ownership clearly wants the front office to remain below the $241MM base luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculated their CBT number a little above $234MM before tonight’s deal. That’s an unofficial estimate that doesn’t account for incentives that’ll add to the team’s tax number as they’re unlocked down the stretch.

The Rangers need to add at least one impact bat if they’re going to make a playoff push. They should probably acquire multiple hitters and would benefit from bringing in a power arm at the back of the bullpen. Dunning was the most obvious player for a pure salary dump as deadline season approaches. Gray, Adolis García and Jonah Heim could be candidates for a payroll-cutting trade as well, though they have (or will have, in Gray’s case) a bigger role than Dunning was playing.

As for Chavez, he’ll go back on waivers for the third time this year. There’s a good chance he’ll clear, elect free agency, then re-sign with Atlanta on a minor league contract. The 41-year-old righty has given up eight runs in as many innings over four MLB appearances this season. He has a 2.05 ERA across 30 2/3 innings in the minors.

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images.

Draft Signings: Braves, Angels

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The Cardinals announced a deal with fifth overall pick Liam Doyle this morning. A few other notable recent draft signings (all first reported by Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo):

  • The Braves reached underslot deals with first and second round picks Tate Southisene and Alex Lodise. Southisene signed for roughly $2.62MM against a near-$4MM slot value; Lodise signed for $1.3MM, around $200K below slot. That enabled the Braves to go above slot for fourth and fifth round picks Briggs McKenzie and Conor Essenburg. McKenzie received a near-$3MM bonus that’ll be the highest in Atlanta’s class. Baseball America ranked the 6’2″ lefty as the #46 prospect in the class pre-draft, putting him more as a top of the second round talent. The Braves were able to slide him to the fourth because of the bonus money. Southisene, a right-handed hitting prep infielder, placed 43rd on BA’s rankings.
  • The Angels agreed to a $2.0772MM deal with second-rounder Chase Shores, Collazo reports. That’s essentially slot value for the #47 pick. Shores, an LSU product, is a 6’8″ right-handed pitcher who posted a 5.09 ERA over 63 2/3 innings in his draft year. He recorded 70 strikeouts and issued 31 walks. Baseball America had him 86th on their rankings, praising his fastball-slider combination but raising questions about his changeup and control. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had him as the #68 player in the class. Based on the Angels history, it seems likely that they’ll try to fast-track Shores to the big leagues as a reliever.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers have spent most of the season hovering around .500. They have as strong a 1-2 rotation punch as any team in MLB. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi give Texas a good chance to win every time out. They have little margin for error with a lineup that has struggled to score runs for a second straight year. Assuming the Rangers find themselves in position to buy, they need to swing for an impact bat. They still have much of the personnel from the 2023 team that mashed its way to a championship, but most of the hitters from that club have gone backwards over the past two seasons.

Record: 48-49 (18% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: First base, catcher, right field, power bullpen arm

The Rangers enter the second half tied for 22nd in MLB in scoring. They are eighth in runs scored over the past month, so things have been better lately, but they're still hitting .243/.322/.387 even over this recent stretch. They're in the bottom third in average, on-base percentage and slugging for the season. There have been far too many easy outs.

This is not a one-year problem. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line in 2024. They tried to remedy that -- with a particular focus on their woeful numbers against fastballs -- by signing Joc Pederson and acquiring Jake Burger. The offense hasn't gotten any better, at least in part because both Pederson and Burger have played poorly.

President of baseball operations Chris Young and his staff are back to the drawing board. The Rangers have had by far the worst designated hitter production (.160/.241/.265) in MLB. Most of that falls on Pederson, who has hit .131/.269/.238 in 46 games. He has been out nearly two months with a broken hand and is still weeks away from a rehab assignment. They've mostly used catcher Jonah Heim at DH in Pederson's absence. He's hitting .219/.262/.346 across 280 plate appearances. The Rangers need to find someone who can draw into that position.

Only 21 players have taken at least 150 plate appearances at the DH spot this season. Of that group, Marcell Ozuna is the most obvious trade candidate. He's playing on a $16MM salary that might be too rich for Texas, and he hasn't hit well over the past two months. The Nationals would happily dump what remains of Josh Bell's $6MM salary. The ever streaky Bell was terrible in April, raked in May, had an awful June, and is hitting well in a tiny sample in July. Texas could send the Nats a middling prospect and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

Bell would only make sense as one of multiple offensive acquisitions. The DH spot has been the biggest issue but is far from the only problem. Texas has also gotten below-average production out of catcher, first base, third base and right field. They're not going to be able to afford upgrades at five different positions, of course, but that at least gives them a wide positional net they can cast.

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