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Felix Mantilla Passes Away

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Eleven-year MLB veteran Felix Mantilla passed away on Friday at age 90.  Mantilla appeared in 969 games with the Braves, Mets, Red Sox, and Astros from 1956-66, playing primarily as a second baseman, but with a lot of time spent at third base and shortstop plus all three outfield positions.

Though Mantilla never played for the Brewers, the organization paid tribute to Mantilla by recognizing him as “an iconic figure…who was an inspiration to all of us in the Milwaukee baseball community.  We will forever remember Felix for his time with the Milwaukee Braves, but even more for the impact he had on thousands of children through the Felix Mantilla Little League.”

One of the first Puerto Rican players to break through in Major League Baseball, Mantilla was signed by the then-Boston Braves during the 1951-52 offseason and made his MLB debut in 1956 once the franchise had moved to Milwaukee.  He was primarily a middle infielder during his six seasons with the Braves but bounced around to multiple positions in his role as a bench player.

Mantilla won a World Series ring for his role on the 1957 championship team, and while Mantilla contributed only a walk over 11 plate appearances in the Fall Classic, his one run scored was of vital importance.  Entering the 10th inning of Game Four as a pinch-runner, Mantilla scored the game-tying run just before Eddie Matthews’ two-run walkoff home run.

The Mets selected Mantilla away from the Braves as part of the expansion draft, which meant that Mantilla (playing an everyday role for the first time in his career) was part of the infamous 1962 Mets team that went 40-120-1 in the franchise’s inaugural season.  He was traded to the Red Sox after that lone season in New York, which sparked the most successful run of Mantilla’s career — he hit .287/.369/.474 with 54 homers over 1297 plate appearances with Boston from 1963-65.  Thirty of those home runs came in 1964, and the 1965 season saw Mantilla make the All-Star team for the only time in his career.

Despite this success, Mantilla was traded to the Astros after the 1965 campaign, and his numbers drastically dropped off in the move from Fenway Park to the pitcher-friendly Astrodome.  He never played another professional game after the 1966 season, as an Achilles injury that required surgery seemed to curtail his playing career at age 31.

Mantilla finished his career with a .261/.329/.403 slash line and 89 home runs over 3029 plate appearances.  He is a member of the Puerto Rico Professional Baseball Hall of Fame, and as noted in the Brewers’ memorial, Mantilla has had a lasting legacy in Milwaukee as the namesake of a Little League program since 1973.

We at MLB Trade Rumors express our condolences to Mantilla’s family, friends, and loved ones.

Red Sox To Use Garrett Whitlock As Reliever

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11:44AM: Whitlock is hoping to pitch normally during Spring Training, he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other media.  His offseason work has thus far extended to bullpen sessions of up to 15 pitches.

11:31AM: Garrett Whitlock will miss the first month or two of the 2025 season as he recovers from an internal brace surgery performed last May, but when the right-hander does return to action, it will be in a bullpen role.  Whitlock told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) today that the Red Sox intend to use him as a reliever in the coming season.

The news isn’t a huge surprise, given both Whitlock’s health status and the fact that the Sox have enough of a pitching surplus that the team is considering using a six-man rotation just to get everyone innings.  There is also the fact that Whitlock has been markedly better as a reliever (2.65 ERA in 132 2/3 innings) than as a starter (4.29 ERA in 109 innings) during his big league career.

After being selected away from the Yankees in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, Whitlock burst onto the Major League scene as a reliever when he posted a spectacular 1.96 ERA over 73 1/3 innings during the 2021 season.  It was a tremendous breakout for a pitcher who had never even worked at Triple-A before making his MLB debut, and the Red Sox jumped to capitalize on that potential by signing Whitlock to a contract extension that will net him at least $18.75MM over the 2023-26 seasons, and might max out as a six-year, $44MM pact based on club options and escalators.

The Red Sox experimented with Whitlock as a starter in 2022, but moved him back to the pen after he missed about a month due to hip inflammation, and Whitlock continued to pitch well in a multi-inning relief role before a season-ending hip surgery in September.  Whitlock was again deployed as a starter to begin the 2023 season, but struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings over 10 starts before again returned to the relief corps.  This time, Whitlock had a 4.95 ERA in 20 innings as a reliever over the remainder of that season, as some elbow problems were the larger story of Whitlock’s 2023 campaign.

Injuries again surfaced in 2024, as Whitlock didn’t pitch again after suffering an oblique strain in mid-April.  A month after his IL placement, Whitlock came away from a Triple-A rehab outing with elbow soreness, and ultimately the UCL damage that necessitated his surgery.  Ironically, Whitlock had looked very sharp in his first four starts of the 2024 season, as an 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings hinted that he was finally ready to step up as a regular member of Boston’s rotation.

It still seems possible that the Sox might again use Whitlock as a starter in 2026 or beyond, depending on his health, their rotation needs, or if the Red Sox exercise their club options on his services for the 2027 or 2028 seasons.  However, it could be that simply keeping Whitlock in a relief role might be the ideal path to keep him off the injured list.  As much as Boston might’ve hoped it had found a quality starter at a relative bargain price, having Whitlock as “only” a bullpen weapon for high-leverage innings is a pretty nice silver lining, assuming Whitlock can regain his 2021-22 form.

Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson are the highest-profile new additions to the Boston bullpen this offseason, and the exact nature of the relief mix might not be known for some time.  The Red Sox will still need to figure out which five or six arms will comprise their rotation, which excess starters might also be used in the pen, and simply who will be healthy.  Aside from Whitlock, Lucas Giolito, Patrick Sandoval, and Michael Fulmer are all returning from long-term injuries.

17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

Red Sox, Garrett Crochet Have Had Preliminary Extension Talks

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The Red Sox made one of the biggest trade acquisitions of the winter, landing Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. Boston apparently has interest in keeping their newly-acquired southpaw for the longer term.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox and Crochet’s camp at CAA have had at least preliminary discussions about a long-term deal. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures on salaries for the 2025 season. That doesn’t preclude the sides from continuing to negotiate, but it stands to reason they’ll attempt to hammer out a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing for this year.

Crochet is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. His early-career injuries and usage out of the White Sox’s bullpen limited his arbitration earnings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the southpaw for a $2.9MM salary. He’s controllable for one additional year and is on track to reach free agency after his age-27 season.

For the next two seasons, Crochet should offer immense surplus value. He turned in top-of-the-rotation numbers on a rate basis last year. Crochet worked to a 3.58 earned run average with a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage. Chicago limited his workload within starts down the stretch. He finished the season with 146 innings despite taking all 32 turns through the rotation. Boston presumably won’t have any qualms about fully unleashing Crochet in his second season as a starter.

Crochet’s contract status was a key issue heading into last summer’s deadline. The southpaw seemed an obvious candidate to move as the ace of a team that was headed to the worst season in modern history. Chicago held onto him instead, in large part because his camp indicated he wanted an extension to pitch into October. To be clear, there’s no indication that Crochet would take that stance again now that he has a full season under his belt. At the time, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that the asking price would’ve been above nine figures. Passan noted that Crochet’s camp could compare him to Tyler Glasnow, who signed for four years and $110MM in new money on his extension with the Dodgers.

It’s not a perfect comparison. Glasnow was one year from free agency and had banked significantly greater earnings. Crochet is an extra season away. However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. He finished the year healthy and is a few months closer to free agency. Even last year’s capped innings tally is above Glasnow’s career high of 134 frames in an MLB season.

Jacob deGrom holds the record for the largest extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time. deGrom secured $120.5MM from the Mets covering his age 32-35 seasons. That was an anomaly, as deGrom was a late bloomer but was coming off a Cy Young season. Crochet would certainly look to top more recent precedents like Pablo López’s $73.5MM deal with the Twins and the $71.5575MM in new money which Mitch Keller got from Pittsburgh last spring. A four- or five-year term would seem the most likely midpoint if the sides can reach an agreement. That’d allow the Sox to buy out two or three free agent seasons while Crochet would still have an opportunity to cash in as a free agent at 30 or 31.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Showing Interest In A.J. Minter

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The Red Sox have had multiple conversations with free agent reliever A.J. Minter this offseason, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo lists a few other relievers with whom the Sox have had discussions: Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle and Andrew Kittredge. However, he suggests that Boston could be on the periphery of the Estévez market and that “nothing has heated up” in their conversations with Kahnle.

Minter has been linked to the Blue Jays, Rangers and Cubs in recent weeks. Texas has already made a handful of bullpen signings, including last night’s one-year deal with former Boston righty Chris Martin. The Jays and Cubs should still be involved in the relief market. During the season, Minter had expressed some interest in returning to the Braves, though it’s not clear how seriously Atlanta has pushed for a reunion.

The 31-year-old has been one of the game’s more reliable lefty setup arms during his career. Between 2020-23, he combined for a 2.89 earned run average while striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters in more than 200 innings. Minter’s platform year was a little more questionable. He still managed good numbers, turning in a 2.62 ERA with a solid 26.1% strikeout rate. Left hip issues limited him to 39 appearances, though. He underwent surgery that ended his season in the middle of August.

Minter could be ready early in the year, so the injury should not be too detrimental to his market. That said, it may limit him to two years when he seemed on track for a three-year pact earlier in 2024. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.

The relief market has moved slowly. Boston’s $10.75MM deal with Aroldis Chapman is one of four eight-figure reliever contracts thus far. The Sox also brought in Justin Wilson on a one-year deal at a low cost ($2.25MM). Minter would complete a trifecta of new southpaws in Alex Cora’s late-inning mix.

Kahnle is a righty who generally fares better against left-handed hitters. That’s a reflection of how often he uses his changeup. Kahnle turned to the “offspeed” pitch more than 70% of the time last season. It’s tough to argue with the results, as he turned in a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents across 42 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Kittredge, a righty who leans on his slider roughly half the time, is coming off a strong season for the Cardinals. The 34-year-old worked 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball with a league average 23.3% strikeout rate.

Blue Jays, Red Sox Interested In Pete Alonso

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First baseman Pete Alonso is still unsigned with just over a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, which naturally suggests he hasn’t yet found a contract offer to his liking. Reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN and Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggest that he is likely to pivot to a short-term deal with one or more opt-outs. Nightengale says eight teams, including the Blue Jays and Red Sox, have at least some level of interest. However, it’s unclear how interested those clubs are and the fact that Alonso remains available suggests they aren’t bowling him over with aggressive offers.

If Alonso ultimately pivots to a short-term deal with opt-outs, it wouldn’t come as a huge surprise. Alonso’s agent Scott Boras went down this road last offseason with Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. All four of them found markets below their expectations and remained unsigned beyond the holidays. Each of them eventually agreed to short-term deals with an opt-out or two, with slight variations for each individual.

There were reasons to expect Alonso could follow that path. Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Mets in the summer of 2023 valued at $157MM over seven years. He still had one arbitration season remaining at that time and ultimately earned $20.5MM. That means he was effectively being offered $137MM for six free agent seasons and turned it down. In November of 2023, it was reported that he was looking to top the recent deals for Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, who signed for $162MM and $168MM respectively.

But the league has generally shied away from one-dimensional right-handed-hitting sluggers like Alonso. His defense isn’t especially well regarded and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. His walk rates are decent but not exceptional. Alonso has huge home run power but Freeman and Olson rank higher than him in terms of glovework and drawing free passes.

While Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols each got over $200MM, those deals were both over a decade ago. More recently, Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM extension from the Cardinals is the best deal for a righty-swinging first baseman. Kris Bryant got $182MM as a defensively-limited outfielder but that deal turned sour very quickly. Other bat-first guys like J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos signed for the low nine figures.

Alonso also hit free agency on a bit of a down note. He had hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but slashed .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons for a 122 wRC+. That’s still above average offense but a team might wonder if Alonso could reverse that trend going into his age-30 season. He also rejected a qualifying offer and is therefore tied to the associated penalties for any club that signs him.

Taking all that into consideration, it seemed possible that there would be a discrepancy between Alonso’s asking price and what teams would be willing to offer. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR considered predicting Alonso for a deal similar to what Bellinger ultimately signed with the Cubs last offseason, which was $80MM over three years with two opt-outs. That seemed too bold a stance to take at the start of the offseason, so we backed down and went with $125MM over five years, though noting that the Bellinger path was a real possibility. Last month, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that such a deal was becoming increasingly likely and this week’s reporting adds to that.

Returning to the Mets is still a possibility, as they haven’t done anything to fill Alonso’s spot at first base. It’s been speculated that they could move Mark Vientos over from third, since his defense at the hot corner isn’t strong and he’s capable of playing first. They could then cover third base internally with a combination of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña, or perhaps an external addition like Alex Bregman. However, the door to Alonso returning is still open.

Other clubs have been tied to Alonso, but the fits are mostly a bit awkward. The Yankees reportedly had Alonso on their list of backup plans for the event they didn’t sign Juan Soto but they eventually signed Goldschmidt to cover first base. The Giants could perhaps be a fit but they have Bryce Eldridge waiting in the wings. The Angels have reportedly considered bringing in Alonso and moving incumbent first baseman Nolan Schanuel to the outfield, a position he hasn’t played as a professional.

The Jays and Red Sox are also fairly inelegant fits. Boston already has a corner infield logjam with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a candidate for regular run as the designated hitter. Since Devers is a weak defender at third, they have considered adding someone like Bregman or Nolan Arenado and moving Devers to first, which has led to Casas and Yoshida being in trade rumors. Signing Alonso would jam this situation even further and make it harder to get Devers off third. Perhaps that wouldn’t be such a big deal on a short-term deal that the club expects him to opt out of, but it can’t be assured that a player will eventually use his opt-out. The Cubs recently signed Bellinger with this logic and saw him decide to stick around, which led to a salary-dump trade to the Yankees.

The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their everyday first baseman. He is capable of playing third base but only has 14 appearances there over the past five years, most of those coming as the Jays were playing out the string in 2024. With Guerrero slated for free agency next winter, perhaps he and Alonso could share first base and DH for a year with Alonso taking over first in 2026, though it would be a clunky fit for the 2025 season. The Jays also hope to extend Guerrero, which would be complicated by bringing Alonso into the fold.

Financially, RosterResource has the Jays just over $10MM away from last year’s payroll and the competitive balance tax, but it seems they still have some money to spend. They were reportedly involved with Corbin Burnes before he signed with the Diamondbacks and have an offer out to Anthony Santander. RosterResource has the Red Sox almost $30MM shy of the CBT and they might even be willing to cross the line this year.

Triston Casas And Boston’s Infield Dilemma

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The rumor mill has been a whirlwind for Red Sox fans this offseason, with the club diving headfirst into the Juan Soto sweepstakes only to come up short, then getting involved in the markets for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes before ultimately pivoting to Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Now, Boston appears to be in the thick of the market for impact hitters. The club has not made its desire to land a bat who can help balance their heavily left-handed lineup out a secret this winter, and they’ve been connected to a number of major bats like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado.

There’s been plenty of focus on the possibility of the club adding a right-handed infielder like Bregman or Arenado in particular. Either of those deals could come with complications, however. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are both top prospects for the Red Sox who figure to debut in 2025 and fit best on the infield. As the club is currently constructed, with Triston Casas and Rafael Devers at the corners and Trevor Story at shortstop, second base appears to be the cleanest way for either of those players to get into the lineup- or for the club to add a free agent infielder. Bregman has indicated a willingness to play the keystone, but it would be a risky decision for the Red Sox to play a solid defensive third baseman out of position in deference to the incumbent Devers and his lackluster defense. And the idea of adding a glove-first third baseman like Arenado and moving him off the hot corner seems even more farfetched.

That’s led to plenty of speculation swirling around the future of Casas this winter, as the young first baseman would be by far the easiest piece of the club’s infield mix to move. Casas, who turns 25 next week, has done nothing but hit in the majors to this point with a .250/.337/.473 slash line in 222 big league games so far. That’s been good for a 125 wRC+, and with four years of team control remaining the slugger could be a building block for a number of teams around the game—including the Red Sox. While a player with Casas’s combination of talent and team control should garner plenty of attention if made available on the market, it’s worth noting that the youngster’s 2024 season may have raised some red flags that could make potential suitors concerned about his value.

For one thing, he missed most of the season due to torn cartilage in his ribcage. In the 63 games where Casas was healthy enough to take the field, he hit just .241/.337/.462 (119 wRC+) and posted the lowest walk rate (12.3%) of his young career. Both of those are still well above-average figures and not necessarily cause for concern by themselves, but Casas’s sharp uptick in strikeouts is more alarming. He struck out at a 31.7% clip in his 243 plate appearances last year. If he had stayed healthy enough to qualify, that would’ve been the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year behind only Zack Gelof. Third on that list is Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz, proving it’s at least theoretically possible to be an impactful major leaguer even if you punch out nearly a third of the time, but that’s a much steeper ask for a player as defensively limited as Casas.

Of course, those potential red flags haven’t stopped Casas from getting plenty of attention in the rumor mill. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has insisted that the club isn’t shopping the young slugger, but several reports have indicated that the club is at least listening to offers on him even if they aren’t placing him on the trading block outright. In particular, there was plenty of smoke surrounding the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Mariners regarding Casas last month. Those talks reportedly saw Seattle rebuff the idea of either trading one of their young starting pitchers for Casas or else trading Luis Castillo for a package involving both Casas and pricey DH Masataka Yoshida, while the Red Sox balked at the idea of trading Casas for Castillo without also offloading Yoshida’s salary.

With Crochet and Buehler now in the fold, the Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching options that could make a deal for a player like Castillo less palatable. That being said, reports have indicated that the club could still be open to dealing Casas in order to facilitate other roster moves. One such roster move a trade of Casas could facilitate would be the addition of Bregman or Arenado at third base, while Casas departs the roster in order to allow a potential move to first base for Devers. Alternatively, parting ways with Casas could open the door for the club to instead add a right-handed slugger like Pete Alonso to the lineup at first base if the club opts to keep Devers at the hot corner.

It’s an interesting conundrum the Red Sox face: they’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and finally appear poised to seriously contend for the AL East again in 2025. There’s at least theoretically room for an impact player on the infield as things stand, but a complicated positional fit and the presence of impact prospects at Triple-A nearing their big league debut would complicate any such acquisitions.

Should the club stand pat on the infield, preserving the potential star power of Casas and leaving the door open for Mayer and/or Campbell to step in at second base this year? Should the club deal Casas in order to guarantee that there’s room for both a top prospect and an impact addition on the infield, despite the questions regarding Casas’s current value? Or should the Red Sox push their chips in and sign an impact player while keeping Casas in the fold, regardless of the awkward positional fit and the risk of blocking impact prospects? Have your say in the poll below:

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