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Seranthony Dominguez Considering Tommy John Recommendation

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Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez has battled elbow problems for some time now, so this doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Still, it’s disappointing to learn that doctors have recommended he undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Dominguez is still weighing his options at the moment. There’s some uncertainty in the underlying test results, it seems, so Dominguez is holding out hope that rest and rehabilitation will offer an alternative path back. Per Lauber, the right-hander plans to pursue further testing once a second Spring Training begins.

Even if Dominguez had a change of heart, it may be tough for him to get the work done at this point. He’s back home in the Dominican Republic and travel isn’t exactly straightforward. And scheduling a non-essential procedure such as TJS during the coronavirus pandemic may or may not be possible. (Several pitchers have managed, though circumstances are changing daily.)

The ulnar collateral ligament has long proved problematic for the 25-year-old. He tried a PRP treatment and rehabilitation course last year but ultimately made only 27 appearances and didn’t return to action after hitting the injured list in early June. While he showed some promise this spring, Dominguez ultimately suffered a setback. The postponement of the 2020 season leaves additional time for further rehab efforts, though it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll finally be able to get over the hump without an invasive treatment.

College Baseball Players Granted Additional Year Of NCAA Eligibility

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The National Collegiate Athletic Association has decided to grant a universal extra year of eligibility to all spring sports athletics, Nicole Auerback of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Designed to deal with the cancellation of baseball and other spring seasons, the decision has major implications for the MLB amateur draft this year and beyond.

You may recall that the recent MLB-MLBPA agreement to deal with the coronavirus included provisions involving the draft. Commissioner Rob Manfred now has authority to limit the 2020 draft to as few as five rounds, with $20K bonus caps on undrafted players. That’s far less in cash and opportunity than is typically handed out in a given year for amateur intake.

The NCAA decision provides an important counterweight to the huge loss of player leverage that comes with MLB’s crisis-driven modification of the typical draft. Having the ability to return to school and reenter the ensuing year’s draft may not be the preferred option for all players, but at least there’s now a realistic choice. Were it not for the grant of additional eligibility, college juniors would’ve faced an unenviable, binary choice: take what a MLB team offers now or enter the 2021 draft as a senior without any leverage to speak of. The best senior players now have newfound leverage they never would’ve had otherwise.

This decision was anticipated in advance of the MLB-MLBPA agreement; no doubt those negotiations took it into account. At the time the spring sports eligibility expansion was first floated, though, it wasn’t clear whether it would apply automatically to all players.

With far less money being spent in the 2020 draft, and the cash that is promised deferred, we’re likely to see quite a different outcome than would’ve taken place otherwise. Many collegians that would’ve ended up in the professional ranks will now stick with their universities — potentially taking spots on the depth charts from incoming freshmen. Perhaps some graduating high schoolers will be more apt to turn pro, though they’ll also be presented with the same limited earning opportunities.

GM Trade History: Rick Hahn

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game.  After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler and the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, let’s venture to the South Side of Chicago and evaluate Rick Hahn of the White Sox. Here’s a look at Hahn’s deals since he was promoted prior to the 2013 campaign (in chronological order and excluding minor deals; full details at transaction link.)

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

__

What do you think of Hahn’s trade history? (Poll link for app users)

Grade Rick Hahn's trade history
B 52.26% (2,497 votes)
C 23.25% (1,111 votes)
A 16.89% (807 votes)
D 5.25% (251 votes)
F 2.34% (112 votes)
Total Votes: 4,778

Luxury Tax Status Will Not Reset If 2020 Season Is Cancelled

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While Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have officially reached a deal on a temporary re-working of the collective bargaining agreement, the details are still filtering out. One key element of the coronavirus alteration is the role of the competitive balance (“luxury”) tax.

The CBT has played a notable role in structuring roster decisionmaking in recent years. Even those organizations willing to pay it from time to time have sought to avoid doing so in consecutive seasons. Repeat offenders pay heavier rates on their overages. Big-spending teams have come to recognize that dipping back under the bar to reset the luxury tax rate can make for massive savings.

We have learned some details of the modified system (see here and here), including the fact that there’s no CBT obligation if a season isn’t played. (Otherwise, it’ll be handled on a pro-rated basis.) But that doesn’t mean that, in the unfortunate event of a cancelled season, every team would start with a clean slate in the 2020-21 offseason. Instead, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), the pre-2020 CBT status would carry forward.

This news is directly pertinent to the three teams that incurred a luxury tax penalty in 2019: the Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs. In the event of a season cancellation, they’d all head into the 2021 season without a reset. That could have major implications for the Boston and Chicago organizations, in particular.

While the Yankees were planning to blow past the $208MM luxury tax line regardless, the Red Sox and Cubs were not. The Boston club — a two-time repeat payer of the luxury tax — had already moved below the 2020 mark and was clearly planning on a reset. The Cubs were sitting just above the threshold when Spring Training was suspended. Calculation depends upon the contracts added or removed during the course of the season, so the Cubs expected to have a chance to reevaluate as the campaign progressed.

This bit of news may not end up mattering. If the 2020 season is played, the Red Sox will get their reset and the Cubs will still have a chance to adjust their payroll to dip under the luxury threshold — so long as there’s an opportunity to make trades, at least. Then again, the calculus would be quite a bit different than originally anticipated in a short-season format without a typical trade deadline period.

Chris Sale Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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4:42pm: The surgery was performed today in Los Angeles by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Red Sox announced.

4:23pm: We’ve known for some time that Red Sox lefty Chris Sale was destined for Tommy John surgery. But the timing of the procedure was in some doubt given the urgent need for medical resources to deal with the still-growing coronavirus crisis.

Sale has indeed received a replacement ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). Details on the procedure — timing, location, whether other work was also done — remain unavailable.

Several other pitchers have had TJ surgeries in recent weeks. But even if it’s legal (that depends upon location) and there’s a willing medical provider, it remains a legitimate question whether it’s ethical to perform such elective work given the dire need for medical resources around the world. Emma Baccilieri of SI.com just published a careful examination of the topic.

Now that we know Sale has had his elbow work done, it’s possible to set an estimated timeline for his return. There’s no question he’ll miss all of a truncated 2020 season, no matter how late it goes. But his status for 2021 will depend upon the course of his rehab. If all goes well, he’ll be moving toward competitive moundwork this time next year.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers face major competition in the AL West. Have they done enough to field a competitive roster in 2020?

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers entered the winter seeking to end a three-season malaise. Having scored another new ballpark after just 26 seasons in their old one, the Texas organization was looking to ramp up the level of play at an opportune moment for business.

It’s tough to look at the unit compiled by longtime baseball ops chief Jon Daniels and see a division winner. The Astros are far the better team on paper; the Athletics and Angels look significantly stronger as well. But putting together a certain contender was never really a plausible goal, barring a wild spending spree. The Rangers’ hope was to ensure a competitive product and to get the arrow pointed back north, all while setting the stage for yet more strides in 2021 and beyond.

The Rangers’ preferred outcome was to land a blue-chip free agent in Texas native Anthony Rendon. But the price tag flew through the roof in the course of wild, Scott Boras-led Winter Meetings bidding. Trade possibilities — Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant — were at least explored, but nothing came to fruition. The Rangers weren’t as excited to chase the older Josh Donaldson as many expected; ultimately, the club wasn’t involved much at all in his bidding.

Plan B, we now know, was to add a bunch of starting pitching and a much more affordable veteran at the hot corner. Todd Frazier is no longer an All-Star-level performer, but the 34-year-old was something like a 2 WAR performer last year in semi-regular duty. The Rangers can deploy him at either corner infield spot and hope for much the same — solid glovework and slightly above-average hitting. Frazier looks like a pretty strong value for just five million bucks. That’s particularly true after looking at the big money secured by Mike Moustakas. Frazier’s salary is close to what the club would’ve spent on Nomar Mazara had they not shipped him along to the White Sox.

So how about that rotation? The Rangers have had awful luck with homegrown starters in recent years. But they’ve had much more success with a certain sort of free agent signing. The standard thinking goes that you don’t want to give any more guaranteed years than necessary to get a free agent pitcher that comes with questions regarding health and/or consistency. The Rangers have flipped that on its head, using longer but relatively affordable deals to lure a series of veterans. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have amply rewarded the club for its faith and helped to remind that there can be upside to the team in expanding a contract’s length.

Sure enough, the Texas org did it again, inking righty Kyle Gibson to a three-year deal just like those awarded to Minor and Lynn. And much the same reasoning went into the surprising two-year deal the Rangers gave Jordan Lyles. If Gibson can return to peak form after battling stomach issues last year, and Lyles can carry forward some of the spark he showed in the second half of 2019, the Rangers could have another set of pretty nice contracts on their hands. The risks here are equally obvious, and the Rangers still need to figure out a way to raise their own starters, but even if one or both turn out to be duds the cost won’t be exorbitant.

It seemed for a moment as if this might be the extent of the pitching adds. But the Rangers doubled down on the veterans with a rather significant swap that has flown under the radar to some degree. The club swung a deal for Corey Kluber, who was one of the game’s preeminent hurlers for a five-year stretch before a comebacker fractured his forearm last year. While it cost fireballing young reliever Emmanuel Clase, which could sting in its own right, the swap is loaded with upside for Texas. Kluber is only slated to earn $17.5MM for 2020 and can be kept for a second season at $18MM (or dropped with a $1MM buyout if things don’t work out).

Put it all together, and the rotation actually looks to be quite the high-risk/high-reward outfit. It’s unusual to see such a collection of accomplished veterans all earning sizeable but hardly monumental salaries. The Rangers will have to hope the five-man unit stays healthy, because the top depth options — Kolby Allard, Ariel Jurado, Joe Palumbo — are far from sure things.

It’s arguably a hit-or-miss bullpen as well, but with a different makeup. As usual, the Rangers found someone to bring back from Japan. This time, it’s lefty Joely Rodriguez, who’ll pair with youngster Brett Martin to form what could be a nice 1-2 southpaw punch … but which could also fall flat. Top late-inning arms Jose Leclerc and Rafael Montero (yes, the former Mets prospect) had dominant stretches last year but have been anything but consistent. Youngster Demarcus Evans brings some upside of his own and there are a number of experienced hurlers on the 40-man (Jesse Chavez, Nick Goody, Luke Farrell) or in camp (Cody Allen, Derek Law, Juan Nicasio, Luis Garcia, Edinson Volquez, Brian Flynn). But there are plenty of questions in the relief unit.

To get the most out of the staff and to bring some thump from behind the dish, the Rangers righted a previous wrong by bringing back catcher Robinson Chirinos. He’s a nice get on a one-year commitment. While he’s closing in on his 36th birthday, Chirinos has been a steadily above-average hitter and was entrusted with the bulk of the work behind the plate last year for the powerhouse Astros.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s hard to escape the cross-state rivals in Houston when it comes to assessing the Rangers’ offseason work. There’s just so much talent on that roster. The position-player unit in Arlington isn’t nearly as imposing. The Rangers can hope that Joey Gallo builds upon his big 2019 showing. Perhaps Willie Calhoun will ensconce himself as a quality big leaguer. Maybe the Elvis Andrus–Rougned Odor middle-infield pairing will finally play to the level the team hoped when it extended both players. It’s possible Danny Santana will not stop hitting and/or that Nick Solak will fully establish himself in the majors. But … for all of those things to happen? It’d be a big surprise. This lineup would look a lot more fierce with another star or two plugged in.

All things considered, the Rangers look to have compiled a fairly middle-of-the-road unit for the 2020 season. There are scenarios where the roster plays up — particularly in a short-season format in which depth questions aren’t as likely to be presented.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason? (Poll link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rangers' offseason?
B 52.61% (906 votes)
C 29.33% (505 votes)
A 9.41% (162 votes)
D 6.04% (104 votes)
F 2.61% (45 votes)
Total Votes: 1,722

Taillon Unlikely To Pitch In 2020 Regardless Of Season Schedule

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The uncertain start date for the season and the likelihood that, if there is a 2020 season, it’d extend into at least late October, has created some intriguing possibilities about players unexpectedly returning from injury earlier than anticipated. In theory, Pirates righty Jameson Taillon would be one such player to watch, but Taillon tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the organization has already ruled out a return in 2020 — regardless of start date (Twitter link).

Taillon, 27, underwent his second career Tommy John surgery last August. The righty acknowledged that the thought of pushing back the season end date prompted him to inquire with the team, but the Pirates “shut me down pretty quickly,” Taillon says. Even in the event that Taillon’s arm were ready for game activity before the close of a potentially pushed-back season, the club would have concerns about the impact of a shortened offseason heading into 2021.

Pittsburgh controls Taillon through the 2022 season, so he’ll still have at least two years as a Pirate remaining — barring a trade. That seems quite likely to be explored a ways down the road, given the team’s penchant making its most desirable players available once their escalating salary and waning team control reach a nexus. In the case of Taillon, it would seem prudent to wait until he’s able to demonstrate his health, which would mean a mid-2021 trade at the earliest.

Of course, it’s also worth noting that Taillon will be paid just $2.25MM in 2020 — again, assuming some form of season is played — and would likely stand to earn that same sum in 2021 regardless of whether games are played. That’s an eminently affordable rate even for the Pirates, so financial motivations won’t play much of a role in any talks in which they may engage (save for the inquiring team’s desire to land a quality pitcher at a relative pittance).

 

Rookie Radar: NL Central

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We’ve already run through the NL West, the NL East, the AL West and the AL Central in our look at some of the up-and-coming talent that figures to step into the Major League spotlight whenever play resumes. Let’s take a run through the NL Central…

Chicago Cubs

Nico Hoerner is the most interesting name to watch. The 2018 first-rounder skyrocketed through the system to make his MLB debut late last season, and while his .282/.305/.436 output didn’t exactly set the world on fire, it capped an impressive rise for a 22-year-old in his first full pro season. The Cubs hope there’s a potential everyday option at second base here. We could also see 27-year-old Robel Garcia and his light-tower power get another audition, though his contact skills (or lack thereof) are a notable red flag.

The organization lacks high-end, MLB-ready pitching prospects, but it wasn’t that long ago that righty Adbert Alzolay was considered to be just that. He was limited by a triceps injury last year and pitched just 81 2/3 innings between the minors and a brief MLB call-up, but his strikeout numbers are intriguing. Other rotation options include Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller and Justin Steele, but no one from the bunch is regarded as a blue chipper.

In the ’pen, expect some combination of James Norwood, Dillon Maples and Duane Underwood Jr. to be called into action as injuries arise. All three are on the 40-man roster.

Cincinnati Reds

Shogo Akiyama will be one of the most interesting “rookies” to watch this season. He’s of course new to the MLB circuit but no stranger to playing professionally, having starred for Japan’s Seibu Lions over a nine-year career in Nippon Professional Baseball. A career .301/.376/.454 hitter in Japan, Akiyama hit .296 or better with at least a .385 OBP in each of his final five seasons with the Lions.

The Reds are suddenly a somewhat veteran club, so there aren’t many rookies who’ll be trusted with an Opening Day role. Well-regarded catcher Tyler Stephenson could be summoned in the event of an injury to Tucker Barnhart or Curt Casali. Shortstop Jose Garcia drew some eyes with a big spring showing but has yet to reach Double-A. He probably needs some more minor league time.

If a starter goes down, right-hander Tony Santillan has steadily climbed the ranks, although he struggled in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting a year ago. Still, with the Reds set to potentially lose both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani to free agency next winter, they’ll probably want to get a look at Santillan at some point.

The bullpen has a host of potential options — Vladimir Gutierrez, Reiver Sanmartin, Joel Kuhnel and Tejay Antone among them. Gutierrez has worked as a starter but struggled enormously in Triple-A, and his power fastball would seemingly play well in relief. Kuhnel has already made his MLB debut.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers signed 10 Major League free agents this winter, traded for several players who’ll be on the Opening Day roster and don’t have a particularly well-regarded farm. All of that is to say — their rookie contributions might be few and far between. (To be fair, there are some semantics at play here; neither Keston Hiura nor Luis Urias is technically a rookie despite lacking a full season in the Majors. Both are highly intriguing young players.)

Jacob Nottingham might be called upon should Omar Narvaez or Manny Pina fall to injury. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor made his MLB debut last year but is buried behind a host of more experienced options. Former first-round pick Corey Ray has yet to debut but also finds himself on the wrong end of that deep outfield mix. Milwaukee picked up Mark Mathias in a small trade with the Indians and kept the versatile infielder on the 40-man roster, but it might take multiple injuries and/or a huge Triple-A showing to get to the Majors.

Righty Devin Williams leads the pack of bullpen candidates, having debuted with a 3.95 ERA in 13 2/3 frames last year. Right-handers J.P. Feyereisen and Angel Perdomo figure to emerge at some point, too, and waiver claim Eric Yardley provides a left-handed option who posted big numbers in Triple-A with the Padres last season. Rotation candidates include righty Drew Rasmussen, who had a nice year in Double-A in ’19. Trey Supak was rocked in seven Triple-A starts after a solid Double-A showing himself.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Right-hander Mitch Keller barely still qualifies a a rookie and should have a rotation spot for much of the season. Keller, long one of MLB’s premier prospects, was clobbered in his debut effort, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares without the juiced ball and (presumably) without the prior front office/coaching staff’s emphasis on a two-seam fastball.

The Bucs have already talked extension with third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes — one of the game’s best defensive minor leaguers. Hayes didn’t have a great year at the plate in Triple-A in 2019, but he’ll open the season there and should break into the big leagues this year. As the club’s potential third baseman of the future, he’s a definite name to watch.

After that pairing, there’s a drop. Jason Martin and Jared Oliva might get some time in the outfield, and depending on injuries middle infielder Kevin Kramer and first baseman Will Craig are possibilities.

It feels like Nick Burdi has been a prospect forever, but the 27-year-old was healthy and opened some eyes this spring with a good showing. He’s undergone both Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgery but boasts a triple-digit heater when healthy. Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce could see time in the ’pen, as JT Brubaker could in the rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals

Among NL Central prospects who could plausibly debut in 2020, outfielder Dylan Carlson is perhaps the most highly regarded. A consensus top 20 minor leaguer who belted 26 home runs, stole 20 bases and posted a combined OPS north of .900 between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Carlson is viewed as a potential cornerstone piece. He’ll have to stave off Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and fellow rookie Justin Williams, but Carlson has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

Yadier Molina just keeps on going, so there’s little hope of Andrew Knizner seeing meaningful time unless there’s an unfortunate injury to Molina. But Knizner is touted as a potential starting catcher himself and is more or less MLB-ready. Likewise, infielder Edmundo Sosa is ready for an MLB look but lacks an obvious path given the team’s veteran infield mix.

Left-handers Genesis Cabrera and Kwang-Hyun Kim give the Cards a southpaw option both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Kim, long one of the better pitchers in the Korea Baseball Organization, had an eye-opening spring showing. Right-hander Junior Fernandez tops the list of intriguing bullpen candidates thanks to a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors last year and a heater that averaged nearly 97 mph on a brief MLB cup of coffee.

Breakout Candidate: Max Fried

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Max Fried ranked among the Braves’ top prospects from the time they acquired him as the headlining young piece in a trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres until he exhausted his rookie status in 2018. From 2015-17, Fried was considered among the best in a deep system,but he never entered the club’s top five prospects (at either MLB.com or Baseball America) and was at times outranked by Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, Aaron Blair, Joey Wentz, Luiz Gohara and current teammate Mike Soroka. Fried’s outlook is now considerably brighter than most of that bunch, and it’s possible that by the end of the next season — whenever that is — he’ll even have surpassed Soroka as Atlanta’s top arm.

Max Fried

Fried recently turned 26, and although it’s been nearly eight years since San Diego took him with the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and more than five years since Atlanta acquired him, he has just 225 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. Fried underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, slowing his march to the big leagues, and some of the names ranked ahead of him got earlier looks when rotation spots did open up. To this point in his young career, he has a 3.83 ERA and an FIP that’s an exact match. He’s been a quality arm, but the 2019 season was his first full year in the rotation. He produced a 4.02 ERA through 165 2/3 frames.

If you want to argue that Fried has, to an extent, already broken out — that’s defensible. Last year’s ERA, after all, was better than the league average when considering the juiced ball’s impact around the league (and especially given Fried’s hitter-friendly home park). Park- and league-adjusted metrics like ERA- and ERA+ had him anywhere from nine to 16 percent better than the average pitcher. Last year’s 3.72 FIP was 15 percent better than the league average, per FIP-. In all, Fried was worth about three wins above replacement (3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR). He’s clearly already a good pitcher.

The question is whether there’s another gear for Fried to reach. The left-hander ranked 22nd among 75 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings with a solid but not elite K-BB% (18.0). More impressively, he tied for eighth-best with a 3.32 xFIP. Fried’s blend of high-end strikeout rates (9.4 K/9, 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced), walk rates (2.6 BB/9, 6.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (53.6%) all contribute to him faring well in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics.

Looking at his individual pitches, Fried upped his four-seam velocity to a career-best 93.8 mph average in 2019. That’s particularly strong for a lefty, as southpaws tend to have lower average velocities than their right-handed peers. It’s a low-spin offering, however, and Fried’s pedestrian swinging-strike rate on that four-seamer reflects that. He does locate the pitch well, and his improved ability to work ahead in the count — his first-pitch strike rate jumped from 57.8 percent in 2018 to 63.7 percent in 2019 — allowed him to use his curveball more often. Fried’s curveball was lauded as his best pitch during his prospect days (one of the best curves in all of minor league baseball, for that matter), and he demonstrated why in 2019.

Only eight pitchers in the game garnered more swinging-strikes on their curves in 2019, and while it’s true that Fried threw more hooks than the average pitcher, his 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate topped quality curveballs like those of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray, aligning more closely with the whiff rates of Stephen Strasburg (15.3 percent) and Charlie Morton (16.4 percent). Fried also generated a called strike on 18 percent of his curveballs; just over one third of the time that he threw the pitch, it resulted in a strike without the ball being put into play.

The curveball was always supposed to be Fried’s bread and butter, but he broke out a slider in 2019 that looks to be equally effective — if not even better. Hitters whiffed on the new pitch at a 15.3 percent clip that nearly matched his curve, and they chased it out of the strike zone at a 41 percent rate — the best of all his offerings. Fried’s spin on the slider isn’t at the elite levels of his curve, but it ranked in the 76th percentile. Opponents batted .212/.241/.327 when putting his curve into play and .200/.230/.331 when putting his slider into play. Not bad for a pitch he’d literally never thrown in a big league game until March 28, 2019.

When hitters did make contact against Fried, the quality of said contact wasn’t particularly impressive. Per Statcast, Fried allowed hitters to barrel just 4.4 percent of the pitches put into play against him, ranking 16th of 242 pitchers. Opponents batted .270/.324/.419 against Fried in 2019, which translated to a .315 wOBA. But based on the quality of contact he allowed and his strong K/BB numbers, Statcast projected a .297 expected wOBA for Fried. That 18-point gap between his actual wOBA and his xwOBA was the 34th-largest among 242 big league pitchers (with most who ranked ahead of him being pitchers who were shelled at an unsustainable rate in the first place — not quality performers).

The pitching-rich Braves still have more arms on the way. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright highlight their current crop of minor league arms. Soroka, of course, is a highly talented pitcher in his own right — evidenced by a runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting a sixth-place nod in 2019 Cy Young balloting. It’s easy for Fried to get a little lost in the shuffle after Soroka’s electric debut and the constant hype surrounding their rich farm system. But it seems very possible that we’ve yet to see the best Fried has to offer, and there’s reason to think that his best will be enough to push him into the upper echelon of NL starters.

AL Central Notes: Buxton, Fulmer, Royals

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The Twins’ expectation is that center fielder Byron Buxton would’ve been in center field on Opening Day had the season commenced on time, writes Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. The 26-year-old underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder last September, and manager Rocco Baldelli said in a weekend conference call that Buxton’s rehab from the procedure “could not have gone smoother.” Buxton was a bit limited early in camp during the first spring training, but he’ll be on a normal schedule if a second (likely abbreviated) training camp is able to come together. Injuries have plagued much of Buxton’s career — crashing into the center field fence on the regular and frequently laying out for diving attempts take their toll on a body — but he turned in a .262/.314/.513 slash line (114 OPS+, 111 wRC+) in 295 plate appearances when healthy last season. Despite playing in only 87 games, he tied for fifth among MLB outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

More out of the division…

  • Michael Fulmer’s rehab from Tommy John surgery is on track, and the Tigers right-hander would likely be ready for a minor league rehab stint in early July if play has resumed by that point, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Fulmer’s 2018 season was cut short due to knee surgery, and he sustained the UCL tear that led to his Tommy John surgery last spring. A late start to the year and an pushed-back end date would give Fulmer some additional innings, though he’s quick to say that he “[doesn’t] think there are any positives to take out of” the COVID-19 pandemic, even while acknowledging that it could allow him to get in more work in 2020. Fulmer, the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year (159 innings, 3.06 ERA, 5.4 rWAR), hasn’t pitched since September 2018 and will be arbitration-eligible for the third time next winter. He’s a Super Two player and remains under club control through the 2022 season.
  • Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star takes an interesting look at the manner in which the Royals’ front office is operating amid the suspended state of play. And while the makeshift manner in which the club’s player development staff now has to interact with players is obviously a sub-optimal setup, assistant general manager J.J. Picollo believes that the club “will end up with better processes for our offseason communication” as a result of needing to be more nimble with their interactions. Regular Zoom meetings; webinars on nutrition, pitch grips and new technologies to utilize; and more concrete one-on-one communication schedules have been put into place via a variety of platforms.

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