Author: Tim Dierkes

When I was a kid, prior to the 1994 strike, it was common for about a dozen MLB players to hit 30+ home runs in a season.  The only notable exception was in 1987, when the so-called “rabbit ball” led to 28 players hitting 30+ home runs.  There was an apparent over-correction in 1988, when only five players managed the feat.  Outside of those seasons, it was pretty much a lock that 10-13 different players would have 30 home run power in a given season.

Something changed again in 1993, as David Schoenfield of ESPN noted, and it wasn’t just the addition of the Rockies or the dawning of the PED era.  After the strike, from 1996 through 2004, it became common to see 30 or more players able to hit 30 home runs in a season.  The peak was from 1999-2001, a period in which 40 or more players were able to reach the 30 home run plateau annually.

The year 2000 bears similarities to the just-finished 2019 campaign.  Unlike the preceding seasons, which saw the single-season home run record of 61 being challenged and broken by Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire, in 2000, Sosa led MLB with 50 home runs.  But the distribution was widespread – 47 different players hit 30+ home runs in 2000, a record that stood until this year.  As in 2000, only one player reached the 50 mark in the homer-happy 2019 season, rookie Pete Alonso.

Once steroid testing began in 2005, we entered a five-year period in which about 30 players were capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season.  Then from 2010-15, there was a further reduction in 30 home run bats, as typically only about 20 players would reach that level each year.

The pendulum started to swing back upward in 2016, and in 2019 a new record was set: 58 different players hit 30 or more home runs. Players such as Renato Nunez, Yuli Gurriel, Mitch Garver, Ketel Marte, and Eduardo Escobar – not generally thought of as 30 home run threats – are included in that group.  The chart below shows the number of hitters with 30+ home runs per season, from 1996 through 2019.

With MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred planning to make changes to the baseball, it’s likely this home run trend will be reversed by 2021.  While you may be pondering how to account for 30 home runs being the new 20 home runs in your 2020 fantasy draft, we should also expect continued ramifications in player compensation.  When there’s a surplus of home run hitters available, those players are not able to command the same prices as before.  In 2014, only 11 MLB players hit 30 or more home runs, and only two of them were free agents.  Is it any surprise that Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Yasmany Tomas, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley, Nick Markakis, and Melky Cabrera received free agent contracts totaling over half a billion dollars?

Now, players like Kole Calhoun or Jose Abreu will reach free agency coming off 33 home run seasons and stand no chance of receiving the $42MM contract Melky Cabrera got coming off a 16 home run season.  The arbitration system will become increasingly out of step with the open market, leading to an increased supply of free agents, further depressing salaries.  The juiced ball of the last few seasons is just one more reason free agent salaries will be suppressed this winter.

It is at least positive that MLB and the players’ union are having discussions with two years remaining on the current collective bargaining agreement, but the owners are in the catbird seat.  Unlike in 1994, it is the players who now seek to drastically change the status quo.  I imagine that whatever scant public support players had 25 years ago in resisting the owners’ imposition of a salary cap, they’ll somehow have even less this time around in trying to upend the system.  The devaluing of the home run is just one more way in which the chips are stacked in the owners’ favor in the labor negotiations.

Looking to trade for an impact bat this month?  Options are limited, but here are 17 position players who are projected by Steamer to post a weighted on-base average of at least .321 (the American League non-pitcher average mark) from here on out.

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

• Jose Abreu, White Sox (.351 projected wOBA) – As a player about to hit free agency on a non-contending team, you’d think Abreu would be a prime candidate to be traded by the White Sox.  However, interest is mutual in keeping the 32-year-old in Chicago, and that seems the most likely outcome.
• Brandon Belt, Giants (.347) – Though underpowered for his position, Belt gets on base and can still help an offense.  The obstacle to a trade is his contract, which still has more than $37MM remaining through 2021.  He also has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to ten teams.
• Justin Smoak, Blue Jays (.347) – Smoak is best utilized in a platoon, since he doesn’t hit well against left-handed pitching.  He’ll have less than $3MM left on his contract at the trade deadline and is a strong candidate to be traded.
• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.345) – Cabrera’s power hasn’t shown up this season, and he’ll require a DH spot.  But the real impediment is the $142MM owed to him through 2023, plus a full no-trade clause.  It seems impossible the Tigers could find a way to unload that contract, even if an accomplished veteran hitter like Cabrera could help a contender.

Outfielders

• Yasiel Puig, Reds (.348) – As rough as Puig’s year has been, from May 3rd onward he’s hitting .275/.335/.534 in 194 plate appearances.  A case could be made that he’s the best hitter available this month, though with playoff odds of 6.9%, the Reds might hang around just enough to prevent a Puig trade.  He’s a free agent after the season.
• Michael Conforto, Mets (.347) – The Mets have similar playoff odds to the Reds, and may be reluctant to punt on their season unless that changes.  Even then, trading the 26-year-old Conforto with two years of control remaining seems unlikely.
• Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (.344) – A free agent after the season, Castellanos is very likely to be traded this month.  At the deadline he’ll have about $3.3MM left on his contract.  Castellanos continues to struggle defensively, but he’s clearly an above-average hitter.
• Trey Mancini, Orioles (.334) – Mancini, 27, is having what appears to be a breakout year and probably should have represented the Orioles at the All-Star Game.  He’s controlled through 2022, so the Orioles should be in no rush to trade him if the offers aren’t impressive.  But teams seeking a controllable corner outfielder/first baseman will certainly be calling on Mancini.
• Jorge Soler, Royals (.333) – Perhaps the most remarkable stat about the oft-injured Soler is that he’s played in every single Royals game this year.  A healthy amount of time at DH plays a part in that.  Soler could wind up with 40 home runs if he stays healthy, though he’s not hitting for average or drawing walks this year.  He still brings undeniable right-handed power, and he’s controlled through 2021.
• Starling Marte, Pirates (.333) – Since returning from a collision-related injury on April 30th, Marte is hitting .295/.340/.485 in 257 plate appearances.  He’s also the only player here who profiles as a regular in center field.  Marte can be controlled affordably through 2021.  However, the Pirates don’t seem inclined to give up on their season, so Marte and the rest of their outfielders will probably stay put.
• Mitch Haniger, Mariners (.329) – Haniger, recovering from a ruptured testicle, is not expected back until after the All-Star break.  The Mariners control him through 2022 and seem unlikely to rush him back in late July to make such a crucial trade.
• Domingo Santana, Mariners (.327) – Santana has two years of control remaining, and the Mariners will likely prefer to keep him in their outfield with Haniger as they try to contend in the near future.  But with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, I had to list Santana here.
• Corey Dickerson, Pirates (.323)
• Melky Cabrera, Pirates (.321)

Infielders

• Derek Dietrich, Reds (.329) – As with Puig, the Reds may be close enough to contention (and the offers unimpressive enough) that they ride with the players they have rather than execute a sell-off.  But with Scooter Gennett back, the Reds could at least consider trading him or Dietrich this month.
• Tommy La Stella, Angels (.321) – The Angels’ surprising All-Star is under team control only through next year, and the club’s playoff odds sit at 2.2%.  Given that La Stella only just hit his way out of bench duty with a stellar half-season, the Halos would likely have a hard time cashing him in for notable prospects.
• Wilson Ramos, Mets (.321) – If you’re seeking an offensive-minded catcher, Ramos is your guy.  The Mets could try to unload the $13.5MM still left on his contract, though they’d have to hand over the reins to Tomas Nido full-time at least for the rest of the season.