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Market Chatter: Stanton, Colome, Minor, Cobb, Markakis

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We heard somewhat varied reports yesterday on whether there was any real connection between the Red Sox and Marlins on Giancarlo Stanton. Today, there’s clear indication that the sides aren’t firmly engaged on the slugger: per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link), the teams have not engaged on the matter since the GM Meetings. It certainly sounds as if Boston is not actively pursuing Stanton, though it’s always possible that could change if his market continues to drag — which remains a distinct possibility. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Marlins haven’t set any sort of deadline for teams to submit their best offers, so perhaps Boston could reengage if their reported talks for White Sox star Jose Abreu do not prove fruitful.

Here’s more chatter on the trade and free agent markets:

  • It seems the Rays are at least entertaining the possibility of dealing closer Alex Colome, per Morosi (Twitter link), with “active discussions” said to be ongoing with multiple rival organizations. The Cardinals have “sustained interest” in Colome — a connection we first heard about two weeks back. Colome’s less-than-dominant 2017 campaign has likely cabined his trade value somewhat, though teams will still no doubt see significant value in the hard-throwing, high-leverage reliever. MLBTR projects that Colome will earn $5.5MM in his first of three potential trips through arbitration.
  • The Astros can now be added to the list of teams with some interest in Mike Minor, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle previously explained that the southpaw would make for an interesting target for the ’Stros; we have also heard of prior interest from the Mets, who Olney also names. There’ll likely be quite a few other teams poking around on his market, too, after a high-quality season in which Minor bounced back from shoulder problems. As a lefty with a starter’s arsenal, Minor could be awfully handy on plenty of rosters, though his contractual upside will likely be limited by his health history.
  • Free agent righty Alex Cobb, meanwhile, still seems to be facing a fairly wide-open market. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that “a lot” of teams have interest, but that there’s “nothing close” to coming together at the moment. Quite a few organizations could end up having interest in Cobb, who certainly has some earning upside beyond the four-year, $48MM contract that MLBTR predicts he’ll land. Cobb turned down a qualifying offer from the Rays, so the draft compensation he’ll return to the organization will depend upon whether or not he’s able to surpass our best guess and earn a $50MM guarantee.
  • The Blue Jays held talks with the Braves regarding veteran outfielder Nick Markakis, Morosi tweets. But the chatter has “failed to advance” and it’s not clear whether the sides will pick things up. Markakis has continued to put up roughly league average offensive numbers, compensating for a lack of pop with solid on-base numbers, but isn’t much of a value on a $10.5MM salary. Presumably he’d have provided the Jays with a platoon piece for their outfield mix, but it stands to reason that the organization is looking to spend a bit less than that — particularly given that it has other, greater priorities.

Market Notes: Darvish, Donaldson, Frazier

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There has been no shortage of chatter on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani over the past few weeks. We gathered up more news and rumors on each of these significant players yesterday — here and here, respectively. It’s fair to wonder whether their still-unsettled situations could be to blame for a notably sluggish start to the free agent market. The former, in particular, is a potential cause given that his massive contract and complicated trade situation might be hindering the development of the markets of premium free agents — though certainly other structural factors may be playing a far greater role, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues in a must-read piece.

  • Free agent righty Yu Darvish evidently still has a broad class of suitors, according to a report from Jim Bowden of Sirius XM (via Twitter). Six (unidentified) clubs have engaged on the veteran hurler, with about as many others seemingly having shown some degree of interest. That’s not surprising for a pitcher of Darvish’s stature — he entered the offseason atop MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents — but it does suggest that the back-and-forth is only just getting underway.
  • Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has explored the hypothetical possibility of the Blue Jays dangling star third baseman Josh Donaldson in trade. He first posited that Toronto could match up with the Cardinals in a swap that might allow both teams to maximize their resources and stay in contention. (Of course, this is presented as analysis, not a report of actual discussions.) And yesterday, Cameron argued that Donaldson might not bring maximum value if he’s ultimately shopped at the deadline (supposing, of course, that the Jays end up in a selling posture). Other premium hot corner rentals could also be available this summer, Cameron notes, and it seems unlikely that there’ll be a whole lot of demand.
  • Third baseman Todd Frazier is likely to plug a gap for one of the few contenders that does need a new option there. But he’s also still interested in returning to the Yankees, he tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Of course, that’s an organization that may well decide not to add at that position; we covered just that subject in some detail about a month back. Frazier says it’d be “great” to remain in the Bronx, but also suggests he may be resigned to finding a new home, noting that he “understand[s] the business” side of things.

Giancarlo Stanton Trade Rumors: Monday

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The Giancarlo Stanton trade saga has been one of the top storylines of the offseason, and there’s no end in sight at the time being. To date, the Cardinals and Giants have reportedly submitted formal offers, while the Dodgers and Red Sox have also been linked to the slugger.

We’ll track today’s developments on the Stanton front right here:

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that other clubs have gotten the sense that there’ll be resolution on the Stanton talks one way or another by the time the Winter Meetings kick off on Dec. 10 (all Twitter links). That is to say, the Marlins will either have traded him by that point or interested parties will have exhausted their patience and begun to explore other possibilities on the trade and free-agent markets. Crasnick also notes that while the Cardinals and Giants are the most-cited suitors, there are other clubs that are in active pursuit of Stanton.

Earlier Updates

  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that Stanton has given the Marlins a list of teams to which he’d accept a trade, and the Dodgers are among those teams (all links to Twitter). Per Morosi, the Dodgers and Marlins have discussed some Stanton trade scenarios, but the Giants and Cardinals have shown more focused interest in Stanton. Some teams interested in Stanton feel the Dodgers are his top choice, which could slow negotiations as Stanton could veto any deal until knowing for certain that the Dodgers don’t plan on making a move for him. At this point, however, Stanton has not rejected any trades, according to Morosi.

What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation

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As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.

He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.

Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.

He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.

The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.

Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.

He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.

The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.

As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.

 

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Brinson, Cardinals, Martinez

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Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Brewers have shown interest in Jake Arrieta, and in a followup column he writes that they’ve expressed interest in most of the top starters on the market, including right-hander Lance Lynn. Milwaukee will be without Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 season due to shoulder surgery, and with question marks in the rotation behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, shoring up the starting five is a priority for GM David Stearns and his staff. While there’s certainly the possibility that they’ll be outbid on the top names in free agency, the Brewers do have considerable payroll space to surprise people with their spending this winter.

More out of Milwaukee and the division…

  • Top Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson has changed representation and is now a client of the Legacy Agency, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. The 23-year-old center fielder made his MLB debut in 2017 but struggled greatly in 55 plate appearances, hitting just .106/.236/.277. However, Brinson tore through Triple-A at a .331/.400/.562 pace through 340 PAs and is widely regarded as one of the top overall prospects in all of baseball. His switch has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,500 Major League and minor league players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
  • The Cardinals’ search for an impact bat is expansive, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak and his staff have had discussions with virtually every impact bat on the market, including Eric Hosmer, and their trade talks with the Marlins have gone beyond Giancarlo Stanton and also touched on Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (presumably not in the same deal). Two execs with other teams told Goold that the Cardinals have been aggressive in trade talks thus far. “We’ve got capacity to increase our payroll depending on the right situation,” owner Bill DeWitt Jr. tells Goold.
  • Jose Martinez is utilizing the Venezuelan Winter League to further familiarize himself with playing first base, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. The Cardinals gave Martinez, who has spent most of his career in the outfield, 29 starts at first last season and plan to use him there again in 2018 (though more in a backup role). Martinez has started nine of his 13 VWL games at first base and figures to continue to gain more exposure there over the course of the offseason. The 29-year-old hit .309/.379/.518 with 14 homers in 307 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2017.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…

Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …

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Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Monday

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Another day, another slew of rumors pertaining to the game’s top slugger. Reports over the weekend indicated that the Cardinals have submitted a formal offer to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but that doesn’t mean that there’s any indication a trade involving Stanton is any closer. Here’s the latest on the 2017 home run king…

  • Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins and Giants have discussed second baseman Joe Panik, right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Beede and outfield prospect Chris Shaw. The Giants have also discussed the possibility of taking Dee Gordon back in the deal, which would make some sense with Panik possibly being of interest to Miami. It’s worth noting that Mish doesn’t specifically state that the two sides have talked about a Panik/Beede/Shaw for Stanton and Gordon package. To the contrary, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that he hears that is not the framework of a deal being discussed (nor is it close, according to Schulman). It seems, then, that the two sides are likely discussing multiple scenarios and those names have been involved (likely with others) in various permutations. The Giants reportedly made some type of trade proposal on Friday.
  • Mish also tweets that the Cardinals are willing to part with hard-throwing right-handed pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara, who was included in the aforementioned formal offer to Miami. Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com rank Alcantara ninth among Cardinals farmhands, noting he sits at 96 mph with a fastball that scrapes triple digits and also has the potential for a pair of average or better secondary offerings. Baseball America rated Alcantara fourth among Cardinals farmhands just two weeks ago (subscription required & recommended for their full scouting report).
  • Meanwhile, Schulman tweets that the Marlins haven’t reached the point where they’re asking interested teams for their best and final offers for Stanton, thus indicating that an actual trade involving Stanton is not especially close at this time.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday

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Rumors continue to swirl around Marlins right fielder and trade candidate Giancarlo Stanton early this offseason. Here’s the latest on the NL MVP:

  • The Cardinals “have made a formal offer” to acquire Stanton, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re at least the second team to make a pitch to the Marlins for Stanton, joining the previously reported Giants.
  • There are some evaluators around MLB who believe the Marlins need a “reality check” with regards to their asking price for the slugger, Buster Olney of ESPN writes. With $295MM left on his contract and an opt-out clause after 2020 on his deal, Stanton lacks surplus value, per Olney, which jibes with a Morosi report from earlier this week. One executive told Olney that the Marlins are “not going to find teams willing to give up both the money and the prospects, and that’s why [they’ll] probably have to choose: They can either take the talent and eat some of the money, or they’ll have to prioritize the [money] savings.”

Morosi’s Latest: Rangers, Cards, Rockies, Phillies

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A few early morning free agent rumors from Jon Morosi of MLB.com…

  • The Rangers “have had preliminary contact” with right-hander Alex Cobb’s representatives, Morosi writes. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported earlier this month that the starter-needy Rangers covet Cobb, one of the top hurlers on the open market. Cobb returned in earnest from 2015 Tommy John surgery last season to turn in a career-best 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching, with 6.42 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent groundball rate.
  • The Cardinals and Rockies are among teams with interest in reliever Brandon Kintzler, whose experience as a closer has executives wondering if a club will sign him to handle that role, according to Morosi. Both the Cardinals and Rockies need more than ninth-inning help, as each team has seen multiple key relievers hit free agency this month. The 33-year-old Kintzler has overcome a paucity of strikeouts to ride a low-walk, high-grounder combination to success throughout his career, including in a 2017 campaign that saw the righty amass a career-high 29 saves between Minnesota and Washington (28 with the Twins).
  • The Phillies are one of the teams eyeing left-hander Jake McGee, reports Morosi, who notes that the reliever was once teammates with new Philadelphia skipper Gabe Kapler in Tampa Bay. With Colorado in 2017, McGee, 31, posted a 3.61 ERA and logged 9.1 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings. Along the way, he was effective against both righty- and lefty-swingers, the latter of whom had their way against Phillies relievers (.270/.347/.459).

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Friday

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You didn’t think we were going to make it to the weekend without another look at the market for Giancarlo Stanton, surely? The Marlins slugger, fresh off of receiving the National League MVP Award yesterday, is still the biggest name to watch. Here’s the latest:

  • Offers are flowing in on Stanton now that the GM Meetings have wrapped up, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes. The Giants have submitted some kind of proposal, according to Rosenthal, with the Cardinals and Red Sox among the other teams believed to be lining up their own concepts for Miami to consider. Rosenthal adds that the San Francisco organization would be willing to take on much of Stanton’s contract, but may in turn need to shed salary elsewhere. It’s interesting to note the Sox’ active interest, since president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski had thrown some cold water on the idea of a major acquisition of late.
  • Stanton himself discussed the odd situation he faces — with his name splashed about headlines due both to his evident availability in trade and his MVP nod — as Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reports. The Marlins star says he’d rather remain with the Fish, but thinks the team needs to “thoroughly address[]” its pitching with “a huge push” that, frankly, does not seem likely. (Stanton says he’s “not entirely sure” it’s realistic, but adds: “But I know all teams have plenty of money.”) Generally, Stanton called the situation “interesting,” but seems to be at peace with the process. “This is the only place I’ve known,” he said, “but I also understand the business part of it and the direction the new ownership wants to go.”
  • Super-agent Scott Boras sided with Stanton on the spending point in his recent comments to the media, chiding teams like the Marlins for drawing up plans to reduce payroll. But MLB commissioner Rob Manfred defended the rights of organizations — particularly, those with new owners — to modify payroll as part of their long-term strategies, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports on Twitter. “I think it’s unfair, really, to criticize a decision — if it turns out to be the decision — to move a player who has a contract that somebody else negotiated,” Manfred said in an oblique reference to Stanton’s situation. “… I hope that the fans of Miami — whatever decisions are made — give [new Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter] an opportunity to show what their plan for moving that franchise forward is.”
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