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Did The Rangers Find A Bullpen Gem In The Bargain Bin?

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Remember when Rafael Montero was thought of more highly than Jacob deGrom? That sounds like a ridiculous question in 2020, of course, but such a time did indeed exist. In the 2013-14 offseason, Montero ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects according to Baseball America and MLB.com, whereas deGrom ranked 10th in the Mets organization, per BA, and landed outside their top 20 at MLB.com.

Rafael Montero | Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

That’s not an indictment on any prospect rankings — the general industry consensus seemed to be that Montero was the higher-end farmhand — and it’s hardly unique to deGrom. For two years, Montero ranked ahead of deGrom, Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Jeurys Familia and several notable bats in the Mets system (e.g. Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores).

That feels like ancient history. Some may be wondering why we’re talking about Montero in the first place. The minor league deal he signed with the Rangers in November 2018 didn’t draw much attention, and not everyone took notice when a .500 Rangers club selected Montero’s contract last July. Even those who did take note of the move may not have paid attention the 29 innings from Montero that followed, but at least for a handful of games, the now 29-year-old righty reminded everyone why scouts were at one point so bullish on his arm.

Before delving into Montero’s 2019 season, it’s worth taking an abbreviated run through his Mets career. The righty signed as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic but did so much later than most July 2 prospects, inking his first pro contract at 20 years old. Three years and four months later, Montero was in the big leagues. He punched out 10 hitters and held the D-backs to one run over six innings in his third big league start, and his rookie campaign ended with a solid 4.06 ERA in 44 1/3 innings.

Montero’s 44-inning debut was overshadowed by deGrom’s out-of-the-blue Rookie of the Year season, but he still broke camp with the Mets in 2015 as a member of the bullpen. Unfortunately for Montero, he went down with a shoulder injury in late April after making his first start of the year. That injury helped pave the way for uber-prospect Noah Syndergaard to emphatically seize a rotation spot of his own. Syndergaard and deGrom joined Matt Harvey, Jon Niese and “Big Sexy” Bartolo Colon in a strong Mets rotation that eventually landed in the World Series.

Niese’s offseason departure opened another rotation spot … but it was ultimately claimed by Matz, who’d impressed in his own 2015 debut. Montero spent the 2016 and 2017 seasons struggling between Triple-A and the Majors before undergoing Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season. That November, Montero went unclaimed on waivers and opted for free agency — ending his Mets tenure.

Jump back to this past July, and Montero was summoned back to the big leagues in a new organization as Shawn Kelley hit the injured list. He’d tossed 18 1/3 innings with the Rangers’ minor league affiliates as he rehabbed, posting a sensational 31-to-2 K/BB ratio along the way.

Montero would go on to appear in 22 games for the Rangers, working more than an inning in eight of those contests and only allowing runs in five of them. He tallied 29 innings with Texas, logged a sterling 2.48 ERA, punched out 34 hitters and issued just five walks.

Montero averaged 5.2 walks per nine frames in his time with the Mets, but his Rangers work in both Triple-A and the Majors was a reminder that as a prospect, he was touted for his plus command. He spent much of that Mets tenure working as a starter and/or pitching at less than 100 percent health and still averaged 93.0 mph on his heater — but that number soared to 95.8 mph in 2019. Working in shorter stints and at full health added some newfound life to his four-seamer.

The bigger change for Montero, though, came in his pitch selection. Montero severely ramped up the usage of his changeup — at the expense of his sinker/two-seamer and slider — and did so to great benefit. He’d thrown a changeup in his Mets days but never at a particularly high rate; in 192 1/3 innings as a Met, Montero threw 643 changeups (17.7 percent). Last year, in just 29 frames, he rattled off 181 changeups (39.4 percent). Opponents batted .152/.220/.174 against Montero’s changeup, which registered a strong 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate. Opposing lefties had fits against Montero thanks to that offspeed offering — as evidenced by their putrid .111/.143/.222 slash in 56 PAs against Montero.

Obviously, a sample of 29 innings is far from conclusive. We don’t know when or if the season will resume, but when it does, few would be surprised to see Montero’s effectiveness fade away. But the 2019 version of Montero looks nothing like the pitcher who struggled through four years with the Mets. He’s throwing harder, inducing more whiffs and most importantly, demonstrating control the likes of which he never has at any point in the past.

If he can stay healthy moving forward — and that’s a big if for a pitcher who missed nearly a full year due to rotator cuff troubles and another due to Tommy John surgery — Montero could yet deliver on some of the promise he showed as a prospect in a ridiculously pitching-rich Mets system. He’s still controlled through the 2022 season, too, so the Rangers might have found a fairly long-term piece in the offseason bargain bin.

When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

An Under-The-Radar Brewers Hurler

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For the sake of this discussion, let’s say a 2020 Major League Baseball season will occur. If it does, the Brewers will enter the campaign with a relatively anonymous group of starters. That’s nothing new for Milwaukee, though, as the team and its ace-less staffs managed to clinch playoff berths in each of the previous two seasons. However, just because the Brewers may not have a Cy Young-type starter on their roster, that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of capable options.

Brandon Woodruff had a terrific 2019 and seemed to be turning into a front-line type before injuries cut him down. The hope is that offseason pickups Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom (the latter dominated in Korea before returning stateside in the winter) should at least be able to competently eat innings. Eric Lauer, who joined the Brewers in a November trade with the Padres, has shown himself to be a passable big league starter. And then there’s Adrian Houser, who has demonstrated rather promising signs of late.

A second-round pick of the Astros in 2011, Houser joined the Brewers in a blockbuster 2015 trade – one that also delivered star reliever Josh Hader to Milwaukee. In regards to Houser, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote at the time: “Houser has a 5.10 ERA split across two levels (Class-A Advanced and Double-A) this season, and he’s worked as both a starter and a reliever. He’s averaged 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 this year, and MLB.com rated him 21st among Houston prospects prior to the trade. Their scouting report praises his mid-90s fastball and ability to generate grounders but notes that the 22-year-old’s control has plenty of room for improvement.”

Houser is now 27 years old, and while not a ton has changed about his profile since the deal, he has bettered his control. He walked fewer than two batters per nine across 21 1/3 Triple-A innings last season and posted a respectable 2.99 BB/9 over a major league sample of 111 1/3 frames.

Houser divided his first extensive year in the majors between the Brewers’ rotation and bullpen (35 appearances, 18 starts, including work as an opener), and the results were encouraging. He parlayed a 94 mph-plus fastball into 9.46 K/9, a 3.72 ERA/3.88 FIP and a stellar 53.4 percent groundball rate. Out of 130 pitchers who amassed 100 innings or more, Houser finished eighth in grounder rate, 37th in strikeouts per nine (Clayton Kershaw and Eduardo Rodriguez were in a similar vicinity), and FanGraphs graded his fastball as the 14th-best of its kind, placing him between Max Scherzer and Chris Paddack. Moreover, Statcast was a big fan, ranking Houser at least above average in hard-hit rate, strikeout percentage, mean fastball velo, expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity, among other categories.

There’s plenty to like about Houser, though concerns exist. Mainly, it’s in question whether he can go deep in games, as he only exceeded the five-inning mark four times last season; plus, his numbers were much better as a reliever. Regardless of role, Houser has at least developed into a useful contributor for the Brewers, and the fact that he has two more pre-arbitration years left and five seasons’ control remaining makes him even more of an asset for the low-budget franchise. Maybe Houser will never make the type of impact Hader has, but he has turned into a nice piece for the Brewers – one who still may have some untapped potential.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Royals’ Outfield Of Infielders

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Alex Gordon’s story is familiar to most baseball fans. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2005 was soon ranked the game’s No. 2 overall prospect by Baseball America. With a lefty-swinging third baseman being touted as the next face of the franchise, George Brett parallels were (unfairly) drawn. The hype was substantial, and when Gordon arrived on the scene, he struggled to live up to those lofty expectations.

Gordon was worth 4.8 WAR through his first two big league seasons, per both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. His next two seasons were miserable — shortened by torn cartilage in his hip (2009) and a fractured thumb (2010). By the time he’d made it through four MLB campaigns, Gordon owned a career .244/.328/.405 (93 wRC+). Defensively, his work at third base wasn’t well regarded (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating). He began ceding playing time to Alberto Callaspo at third base and was moved to left field during the 2010 season.

The Royals remained patient, however, and Gordon rewarded that faith was a massive breakout in 2011. Suddenly Gordon looked like the franchise cornerstone everyone had hoped. He hit .303/.376/.502 (140 wRC+) and, perhaps even more surprisingly, graded out as one of the best defensive left fielders in recent history (+20 DRS, +12.2 UZR). Almost overnight, Gordon was a six-WAR player. He settled in as an OBP machine with elite defense, solid baserunning and some pop in his bat, and Gordon’s production was a significant factor in Kansas City’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15.

We’re coming up on a decade of Gordon in left field. He’s seen Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki and numerous others cycle through the other outfield slots, but Gordon has remained the constant. And now, as the organization works to emerge from its rebuild in the next couple of seasons, the third-baseman-turned-star-left-fielder is joined in the outfield by … another pair of infielders.

Hunter Dozier never carried the same hype as Gordon, although his No. 8 overall selection in 2013 was only six spots behind Gordon’s draft slot. Dozier was a surprise pick there — ultimately a cost-saving selection designed to offer a larger bonus to Sean Manaea a ways later. That’s not to say Dozier wasn’t a well-regarded draft prospect — he was widely expected to be a day one pick — but top 10 overall was still a surprise.

Dozier struggled through much of his time in the low minors before surprising with a huge .296/.366/.533 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He parlayed that into his first promotion to the big leagues but appeared in only eight games. An oblique tear and wrist surgery wiped out most of his 2017 season, and when Dozier finally got a big league look in 2018, he hit .229/.278/.395 in 388 plate appearances. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate was among the highest in the league, his 6.2 percent walk rate was low, and his glovework was poorly rated. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.8 WAR; Baseball Reference placed a ghastly -1.7 on his overall efforts.

Still, Dozier felt that he finished out the ’18 season well after missing ’17, telling Lynn Worthy of the K.C. Star in the offseason that he “found” himself again late in the year. That comment might’ve been met with eye-rolls from some fans at the time, but no one’s questioning him now.

In 2019, Dozier cut his strikeout rate by three percentage points, upped his walk rate by the same number and saw upticks in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. He swung less often, chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.1 percent clip (compared to 2018’s 35.5 percent) and improved his contact rate. In essence, Dozier stopped chasing so many bad pitches and saw his contact quality improve along with his walk rate. That’s a good recipe for any hitter.

The results speak for themselves. In 586 plate appearances, Dozier broke out with a .279/.348/.522 slash. His 26 home runs topped any of his minor league season totals, and Dozier kicked in another 29 doubles and a whopping 10 triples. That last number is surprising, especially for a player who only swiped two bases, but Dozier actually ranks in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters in terms of average sprint speed.

Defense still seemed to be problematic, though. Despite making strides, his work at third was rated below average, and the Royals eventually began giving Dozier some looks in right field. That sprint speed would certainly play well in the outfield, and scouting reports have long since touted his arm strength. MLB.com regularly put a 55 on his arm, while FanGraphs had a 60 on his arm in his final season of prospect eligibility. If Dozier can get comfortable with his outfield reads and keep hitting, there’s little reason to think he can’t be a solid Major League right fielder. And with Maikel Franco signed over the winter to step in at third base, it seems that right field is indeed Dozier’s most obvious path to at-bats.

Manning center field between Gordon and Dozier will be now-former second baseman Whit Merrifield. The two-time stolen base champ and the hits leader in the American League in both 2018 and 2019, Merrifield broke into the big leagues as a 27-year-old second baseman who was never considered a high-end prospect. The former ninth-round pick was considered more of a potential utility option, but he showed his aptitude for hitting almost immediately.

Merrifield’s speed and bat-to-ball skills were on display almost immediately in the Majors, and by the midway point of the 2017 season it was clear that he was far more than a utility option — lack of fanfare surrounding his arrival in the Majors or not. In his three full MLB seasons, Merrifield has hit .298/.348/.454 with 47 home runs, 116 doubles, 19 triples and 99 stolen bases. And despite having more than 3000 innings of quality glovework at second base under his belt, Merrifield appears to be the Royals’ first answer for the their current center field void.

That’s more a testament to Merrifield’s versatility than anything else. His ability to slide into center field will allow the club a longer look at Nicky Lopez at second base, although Merrifield will surely still see some reps at second base at various points whenever play resumes.

If that experiment doesn’t work, though, it seems likelier that it’ll be due to struggles of Lopez at second base than because of Merrifield’s work in center. Merrifield has already given the Royals more than 1100 innings of roughly average defense across all three outfield spots. Similarly, if Franco proves unable to tap into the potential he once showed, Dozier could either move back to the hot corner or the organization could take a look at Kelvin Gutierrez in a full-time role at third base.

That Dozier and Merrifield could line up in the outfield on a fairly regular basis certainly doesn’t bode well for out-of-options outfielders Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling. Both may have been in line to make the MLB roster out of camp because of that lack of options, but neither has produced in the Majors. Most are aware of Phillips’ highlight-reel arm and penchant for eye-popping assists, but his strikeout levels have been alarming. Starling, a former top 10 pick himself, has yet to deliver on the raw ability that led to that draft status. Both will get some looks in the outfield, and on those days, Dozier and Merrifield can slot back into the infield as needed.

At various points in recent years, the Royals likely envisioned both Dozier and Merrifield holding down key spots in the lineup, but slotting in alongside Gordon in the outfield probably wasn’t the way they had things scripted. The team’s willingness to move players around has panned out in the past, though, and their ability to do so with Merrifield and Dozier could allow them to get a look at several young options around the field.

MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks

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Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.

The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.

Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.

Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?

(Poll link for app users)

The Effects Of The Largest Contract In Indians History

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We updated each major league team’s largest contract of all-time last week. Nothing has changed of late for the Indians, whose biggest guarantee remains the three-year, $60MM pact they gave first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in advance of the 2017 season. That ties the Pirates (six years, $60MM for Jason Kendall) for the least expensive sum on the list, which further indicates that the Indians probably won’t be able to keep superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from hitting the free-agent market after the 2021 season.

Edwin Encarnacion

When Encarnacion reached free agency three years ago, few people (or maybe no one at all) thought he would choose Cleveland. At the outset of that offseason, MLBTR ranked Encarnacion as the sport’s second-best free agent and predicted he’d land a four-year, $92MM contract. It seemed like a reasonable call at the time in light of the marvelous production Encarnacion put up as a Blue Jay over the previous seasons. In a 3,133-plate appearance span from 2012-16, Encarnacion collected the majors’ second-most home runs (193) and parlayed a .272/.367/.544 line into the league’s fifth-highest wRC+ (146), not to mention 20.7 fWAR.

Despite the wonderful numbers Encarnacion compiled as a Blue Jay, his market didn’t come together as planned after his tenure with the team concluded. Encarnacion had his sights set on a guarantee approaching $100MM, evidenced by reports that he rejected a Toronto offer in the range of $80MM over four years. That turned out to be a blessing for the Blue Jays, who wouldn’t have contended from 2017-19 even with Encarnacion on their roster. And by issuing Encarnacion a qualifying offer and allowing him to depart, the team received a first-round pick (No. 28) in 2017 as compensation. With that selection, the Jays chose right-hander Nate Pearson, now one of the premier prospects in baseball.

While hitting Encarnacion with a QO did benefit Toronto, it didn’t do his market any favors when he became a free agent. Neither Encarnacion’s age (he was on the verge of turning 34) nor defensive limitations that mostly limited interest in him to American League teams helped his cause, either. The Astros, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox were said to have pursued him to at least some extent, while even the low-budget Athletics tried to swoop in and grab Encarnacion when it became clear he was going to sign for less than expected.

The fact that Cleveland is closer than Oakland to Encarnacion’s native Dominican Republic reportedly played a role in his decision. And the Indians did give him a pact that could have maxed out at $80MM, depending on whether they’d exercise a $20MM club option for 2020. That option was ultimately declined this past winter, but not by the Indians, with whom Encarnacion lasted just two seasons and whose signing cost the club a first-rounder.

Back when Cleveland inked Encarnacion, it was coming off a seven-game World Series loss to the Cubs. The fact that the Indians went as far as they did that year was a boon to their bottom line and reportedly had some impact on their decision to go after Encarnacion. He came in to replace Mike Napoli, whom the Indians let walk after their pennant-winning campaign, and provided an instant upgrade.

Encarnacion batted .258/.377/.504 (130 wRC+) with 38 HRs in 669 PA and 157 games in his first year as an Indian. That output aided the Indians in their second straight AL Central title-winning season, but another deep playoff run wasn’t in the cards as they fell in the first round to the Yankees. While the club went on to a third consecutive division championship in 2018 (and yet another first-round loss, this time to the Astros), it did so without fellow first baseman/DH Carlos Santana, whom it lost to the Phillies in free agency during the previous offseason.

The addition of Encarnacion the year prior helped protect the Indians from Santana’s departure, but the former only managed pedestrian production by his standards that season. Encarnacion did rack up another 32 dingers, though his .246/.336/.474 showing in 579 PA led to his worst wRC+ (115) since before he morphed into a force several years earlier. That proved to be the end of the line on his Indians tenure.

In December 2018, the Indians traded Encarnacion to the Mariners in a three-team deal that also involved the Rays. The move returned Santana to Cleveland, as Philly ended its union with him after only one season when it sent him to Seattle earlier that month, but there was more to the blockbuster. The Indians also had to send third baseman Yandy Diaz and right-hander Cole Sulser to Tampa Bay, which dealt first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers to Cleveland. Diaz has been a real loss for the Indians thus far – he got his first extended major league opportunity last year and showed well, though injured limited him to 79 games. Sulser did nice work with the Rays’ Triple-A team last season, but he was also 29 at the time; they’ve since lost him on waivers to the Orioles. And though Bauers was once a well-regarded prospect, the 24-year-old didn’t hit much in either the majors or minors in 2019.

The best player in the Encarnacion/Santana deal a year ago was the latter, who went to his first All-Star Game and recorded a career-high 4.4 fWAR. The 34-year-old switch-hitter has one more guaranteed season left at just under $21MM. The Indians will have a chance to keep Santana around in 2021 for $17.5MM, but they could instead buy him out for just $500K. So, because we may not even see a 2020 season, it’s possible Santana won’t play for the Indians again.

As for Encarnacion, who had a fine 2019 divided between the Mariners and Yankees, he’s now a member of one of the Indians’ division rivals. Encarnacion revisited the open market this past winter, though he didn’t cash in to nearly the same degree, inking a one-year, $12MM guarantee with the White Sox. That pact also includes a $12MM club option for 2021, so if there is no season, Encarnacion could still stick around in Chicago beyond this year. Based on the length and dollar figure, Encarnacion has a better chance to live up to that accord than the one the Indians gave him. For them, signing Encarnacion to a franchise-record contract didn’t go as hoped.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The 10-Year Anniversary Of A Notable Cardinals Signing

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We’ve reached the 10-year anniversary of a Cardinals move that has paid significant dividends for the franchise. It was on this date in 2010 that the Cardinals signed right-hander Carlos Martinez out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.5MM bonus. The deal came a year after a $150K agreement Martinez had with the Red Sox fell through because of questions over his name and birthday, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com detailed back in 2013.

Martinez’s issues were ultimately sorted out after the Boston deal collapsed, and St. Louis has been the beneficiary. After a torrid run through the minors, Martinez ended up debuting in the majors in 2013 as a hyped prospect, even making five appearances in relief against Boston in St. Louis’ World Series loss to the Red Sox. He has since established himself as a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Martinez truly broke out as a starter in 2015, the first season of a three-year, 580-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.24 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.92 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. The Cardinals made a sizable commitment to Martinez after the second of those seasons, signing him to an extension worth a guaranteed $51MM over five years in February 2017. Martinez is down to his last two guaranteed seasons on that pact, though the Cardinals will be able to control him for 2022 and ’23 via club options; that is, if they’re willing to pay him $17MM in the first year and/or $18MM in the second (otherwise, they could buy him out in either season for $500K).

Martinez seemed to be on pace to have those options picked up just a couple years ago, but it’s less clear what his future holds at this point. Now 28 years old, Martinez spent the majority of the previous two seasons as a reliever – an effective one at that – owing in part to injuries. Dating back to 2018, he has tossed 167 innings of 3.13 ERA/3.34 FIP ball with 9.16 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a typically above-average grounder percentage of 51.1.

All 48 of the hard-throwing Martinez’s appearances last year came out of the Cardinals’ bullpen as he recovered from shoulder issues, and he even converted 24 of 27 save opportunities while filling in for the injured Jordan Hicks as their closer. However, before the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head and caused baseball to shut down, the 28-year-old looked as if he was on track to return to his prior role in the St. Louis rotation in 2020.

No matter which job Martinez takes on this season (if there is one), it’s fair to say his production as both a starter and a reliever has been a boon to the Cardinals. Ten years ago today, they landed a two-time All-Star for a relative pittance.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfielders

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen and center fielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: corner outfielders (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

  • Mookie Betts (28): Betts is the standout among not only at his position but on the entire free-agent market. He’s been worth at least six wins above replacement (bWAR) in each of the past five years while averaging 149 games played and 683 plate appearances. The revenue loss in 2020 could impact the extent of the bidding war that emerges for Betts, who might’ve otherwise been in line to command the largest free-agent contract in history. He’ll receive a qualifying offer.

Potential Regulars (based on 2019 playing time)

  • George Springer (31): We listed Springer as the top of the class in center field, but a club with a strong center fielder could certainly sign Springer and plug him into right field. Since his MLB debut in 2014, Springer has been at least 26 percent better than the league-average hitter in all but the 2018 season, by measure of wRC+. That year, he was a “mere” 18 percent better. Despite being limited to 122 games last year, he connected on 39 Springer Dingers. A qualifying offer is a given.
  • Nick Castellanos (29): Castellanos landed a four-year, $64MM deal that allows him to opt out after each season. That may not happen on the heels of a shortened or canceled season, but if we see some games and an approximation of the outrageous .321/.356/.646 pace he showed in two months with the Cubs, Castellanos could look for a longer deal — especially given his relative youth. He’d surely receive a qualifying offer if things got to that point.
  • Marcell Ozuna (30): Ozuna had multi-year offers in free agency but bet on himself with a big one-year pact in Atlanta. He has one elite offensive season in a track record that is otherwise filled with solid, above-average campaigns. He can’t receive another qualifying offer
  • Michael Brantley (34): Brantley has been among the league’s toughest strikeouts for the better part of a decade, and only two qualified hitters posted lower strikeout rates last year. He also hit .311/.372/.503 — his fifth straight season of at least a .299 average and .357 OBP (excluding 2016, when he was limited to 11 games by a shoulder operation). When he’s healthy, “Dr. Smooth” is a flat-out hitting machine.
  • Joc Pederson (29): Pederson a career .188/.263/.310 slash against lefties five-plus years into what has been a somewhat strange tenure with the Dodgers. But Pederson is young, plays good defense and obliterates right-handed pitching — and he’s still only had 375 plate appearances against southpaws due to L.A.’s heavy use of platoons. He probably won’t ever be a great hitter against lefties, but he might be better than he’s been given the chance to show. Even if not, Pederson can still rake as the large half of a platoon.
  • Alex Gordon (37): It’ll surely be “Royals or retire” again for the Kansas City icon.
  • Josh Reddick (34): Reddick still plays a solid right field, and he’s hit lefties better over the past three seasons. His bat has been a bit below average over the past two years on the whole, but he could be an affordable short-term option.
  • Ryan Braun (36): Braun’s $15MM mutual option will likely be bought out ($4MM), but the slugger still showed that he can hit in 2019: .282/.343/.505. Braun has averaged only 460 PAs per year dating back to 2017 and has been tried out a bit at first base.
  • Robbie Grossman (31): The A’s gave Grossman a career-high 482 PAs last year, but his production dipped. After three above-average seasons, he hit .240/.334/.348. The switch-hitter is a walk machine (career 12.7%) who has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.

Versatile Infielder/Outfielders

  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): The ultra-versatile Gonzalez can play all four infield spots and both outfield corners. He signed later in Spring Training last year but after shaking off some rust through the first two weeks of the regular season, he slashed .274/.331/.435 through his final 103 games (426 PAs)
  • Brad Miller (31): Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
  • Leury Garcia (30): Garcia saw a career-high 618 PAs last year and hit .279/.310/.378. He doesn’t walk much, but Garcia has hit .270 or better in three straight seasons while adding some value on the bases and playing six positions (all three outfield spots, second base, third base, shortstop).

Part-Time Lefty Bats

  • Jay Bruce (34): Bruce hit lefties better than righties in a small sample last year, but platoon issues have been a theme for much of his career. The power is still huge (26 homers, .306 ISO, 333 PAs in 2019), but Bruce’s days as a regular might be behind him.
  • Matt Joyce (36): Platoon issues notwithstanding, Joyce is a strong source of OBP thanks to an always-strong walk rate that has ticked up to 15 percent over the past four years.
  • Nick Markakis (37): An increasingly crowded outfield should limit Markakis’ time if play is able to resume in 2020. He keeps on hitting righties and is lauded as a clubhouse leader, but Markakis is a .265/.319/.363 hitter against lefties over the past five seasons.

Part-Time Righty Bats

  • Yoenis Cespedes (35): Cespedes hasn’t topped 81 games since 2016 and didn’t play at all in 2019. Everyone know how good he can be when he’s healthy, but who knows whether we’ll ever see that version of “La Potencia” again?
  • Steven Souza Jr. (32): Souza’s entire 2019 season was wiped out by a catastrophic spring knee injury. He has a recent 30-homer season on his resume, but the stoppage of play in 2020 isn’t doing him any favors in terms of reestablishing himself.
  • Hunter Pence (38): Pence posted a monster half season with the Rangers last year and returned to the Giants on a one-year deal, so he’ll see some outfield work if play picks back up. By the time 2021 rolls around, DH at-bats like the ones he saw in Texas might be more crucial.

Club Options to Watch

  • Brett Gardner ($10MM option w/ $2.5MM buyout) and Adam Eaton ($10.5MM option w/ $1.5MM buyout) are both plenty productive veterans. If either of these options is bought out, it seems likely to be due to a dip in production that calls into question their status as a regular.

Obligatory Mention

  • Giancarlo Stanton will be able to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM on his contract, but that seemed like a far-fetched concept even before a February calf injury left him questionable for the previously scheduled opener. The slugger isn’t getting that kind of coin in free agency, but perhaps the extended downtime will help him to heal up and avoid the IL in the future.

The Mariners Might Have Found A Core Piece For The Future

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The Mariners’ trade for Tom Murphy a little over a year ago didn’t turn heads. Murphy had once been a notable prospect in the Rockies’ organization, but the shine had seemingly worn off. He saw sporadic action for Colorado between 2015-18, but his .219/.271/.439 line in 210 cumulative plate appearances was underwhelming. Even more disheartening, the Rockies themselves seemingly soured on him. Over those four seasons, the club gave more playing time to all of Tony Wolters, Nick Hundley, Chris Iannetta and Dustin Garneau, en route to largely underwhelming results. Even amidst that suboptimal situation, Murphy didn’t earn himself a long look.

The out-of-options Murphy bounced from the Rockies to the Giants on waivers last spring. After San Francisco decided he wasn’t in line to make the active roster, they shipped him to Seattle for a minimal return (minor-league pitcher Jesus Ozoria). That might have been a coup.

Murphy shined in 2019, his most extensive action to date. He and Omar Narváez quietly combined for a 121 wRC+, the best offensive production by a catching tandem in MLB. Murphy was a big part of that, having hit .273/.324/.535 (126 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 281 plate appearances. Unlike the bat-first Narváez, Murphy also rated well defensively. He drew plaudits from Baseball Prospectus for his blocking and pitch framing, while his 39% caught stealing rate was well above-average. All told, he rated as a top 25 defender at the position by both Defensive Runs Saved and BP’s Fielding Runs Above Average.

Pairing huge power production with above-average defense, Murphy was one of the game’s most valuable catchers last season. His 3.2 fWAR ranked fifth at the position, trailing J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Mitch Garver and Christian Vázquez. Of that group, only fellow breakout slugger Garver logged a partial season’s worth of playing time as Murphy did.

It’s unlikely Murphy will maintain that level of production moving forward, as there are some red flags in his offensive profile. His .340 BABIP masked a 31% strikeout rate. That’ll almost certainly regress moving forward, particularly given Murphy’s fly-ball heavy approach and below-average speed. He’s also never been one to draw many walks, and that continued even amidst his power barrage. But even if Murphy ends up a low-OBP hitter, there’s plenty to like about the profile.

The right-handed hitter drew plaudits for his raw power as a prospect. While the baseball composition no doubt played some role in his home run frenzy, he hits the ball hard and frequently gets it in the air. He’s a strong bet to hit for much more power than is typical of the position. And Murphy’s 71.1% contact rate, while below-average, isn’t catastrophic. Skeptical Mariners’ fans could have visions of Mike Zunino. Zunino, though, never connected on more than 67.4% of his swings in a season. There are some similarities in the players’ general profiles, but Murphy already makes more contact than Seattle’s former catcher ever has.

The 29-year-old looks like a potential core piece of the Mariners’ rebuild. Narváez has been traded away, so Murphy has his clearest path to playing time yet (although Austin Nola was expected to be a highly-utilized #2 before the shutdown). Controlled through 2023, he’s squarely within the club’s anticipated contention window.

Transaction Retrospection: The Rocky Colavito/Harvey Kuenn Blockbuster

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Pop quiz, who were the AL and NL batting champions last season?

If you didn’t immediately have the names of Tim Anderson (.335) and Christian Yelich (.329) at the tip of your tongue, don’t worry.  Given how modern statistics have lessened the importance of batting average in recent years, the batting title doesn’t carry nearly as much prestige in 2019 as it did for much of baseball’s history.  One could even make the case that the home run crown lost some its luster last year since so many players were suddenly clearing the fences — a record 6776 homers were hit during the 2019 season, with Pete Alonso (53) and Jorge Soler (48) leading the way in their respective leagues.

All this being said, you can imagine the furor that would have been generated this offseason if a Yelich-for-Alonso deal had been arranged between the Brewers and Mets, or if the White Sox and Royals decided to swap Soler and Anderson in a one-for-one deal.  Ultimately, any straight-up trade of star players is going to generate headlines, though the idea of a “home run champ for batting champ” trade makes for just as intriguing a concept today as it did 60 years ago yesterday, when the Indians dealt Rocky Colavito to the Tigers for Harvey Kuenn.

Both players were All-Stars in 1959, with Colavito finishing fourth in AL MVP voting and Kuenn in eighth place.  Colavito’s 42 home runs tied Harmon Killebrew for the American League lead, as “The Rock” managed to top his 41-homer performance from a season earlier.  Over four full seasons with the Tribe, Colavito has already hit 129 home runs and slashed .271/.364/.533 over 2166 plate appearances, making him an instant superstar to the Cleveland faithful.

However, Colavito hit “only” .257 in 1959, which led Indians GM Frank Lane to balk at Colavito’s demand for a raise for the 1960 season.  For younger fans used to today’s guaranteed contracts and arbitration structure, players in 1960 had to negotiate their salaries on a year-to-year basis, and since teams had total control over player movement due to the reserve clause, even some of the game’s biggest stars had little leverage in salary negotiations.  In fact, there was also some dispute between Kuenn and the Tigers in the batting champ’s own contract talks heading into the 1960 season.

Though Colavito and the Indians ultimately worked out a deal for 1960, Lane (known as “Trader Frank” for completing over 400 swaps during his two decades as a GM for five different teams) jumped at the opportunity to move the slugger for a player Lane felt was a better all-around talent.  While Kuenn’s reputation has been somewhat diminished by his decline after this trade, it should be noted that he was a very good ballplayer in his prime.  From 1953-59, Kuenn hit .314/.360/.426 with 53 home runs, while leading the league in hits four times, doubles three times, and once in batting average thanks to his career-best .353 mark in 1959.

As steady as Kuenn was, however, 1959 was by far his best offensive year, and it was still only somewhat better (141 OPS+, 145 wRC+) than Colavito’s production (133 OPS+, 130 wRC+) that same season.  Kuenn was also almost three years older than Colavito, and of course didn’t have Colavito’s folk hero status in Cleveland.  Indians fans were instantly enraged by the trade, while Lane was confident that he had made a shrewd move.  In an infamous quote that has gone down in Tribe lore, Lane told reporters that dealing Colavito for Kuenn was like trading hamburger for steak.

In 1960, it seemed like the Indians may have at least broken even on the deal.  Kuenn hit .308/.379/.416 over 537 PA, good for a 118 OPS+ and wRC+ through modern analytical eyes.  Colavito, meanwhile, far outpaced Kuenn in the power department by hitting 35 homers and collecting 87 RBI over 616 PA, but also batted .249/.317/.474 (107 wRC+, 108 OPS+) in his first season in Detroit.

It didn’t take long for Trader Frank to lose interest in Kuenn, however, as Kuenn was traded to the Giants in the 1960-61 offseason for left-hander Johnny Antonelli and outfielder Willie Kirkland.  Antonelli’s MLB career ended after the 1961 season, while Kirkland put up some decent power numbers along with a low average (ironically, making him something of the version of Colavito that Lane feared Colavito would become).  Kuenn played six more years in the big leagues and had a couple more productive seasons, though he never again approached his 1959 peak.

As for Colavito, he rebounded from his 1960 down year to become one of the game’s most fearsome bats of the 1960’s, hitting .266/.362/.470 with 210 home runs from 1961-68 despite playing in a notoriously pitcher-friendly era.  This included a second stint in Cleveland in 1965-67, as the Indians (with Lane no longer in the organization) reacquired Colavito for a return visit.

Cleveland fans may already be cringing at any recollection of “The Curse Of Rocky Colavito,” which was the title of a 1994 book by longtime Cleveland sportswriter Terry Pluto.  After dealing Colavito, the Indians didn’t reach the postseason again until the 1995 season, and the club had only six winning seasons between 1960-1993.  The Colavito trade was hardly the only reason for the Indians’ long slide, of course, and it arguably wasn’t even the starting point of the team’s downfall — nor was it even the most damaging trade the Indians made with the Tigers that same week.  Just five days prior to the Colavito deal, Cleveland sent Norm Cash to Detroit for infielder Steve Demeter, who went on to appear in just four games for the Tribe and never again played in the majors after the 1960 season.  Cash, meanwhile, proceeded to rip up American League pitching for the next 15 years in a Tigers uniform.

Still, the Cash trade never seemed to loom as large in the minds of Tribe supporters, perhaps since Cash never actually played a game in a Cleveland uniform.  (The Indians acquired Cash from the White Sox as part of a seven-player deal that saw Minnie Minoso head back to Chicago earlier in the 1959-60 offseason.)  Colavito had already become a fan favorite at the time of the deal, and continued to remain a presence in Cleveland for years afterwards, both in his return stint as a player and then as a coach and broadcaster for the Indians.

Trading one star player for another was as relatively unusual in 1960 and it would be today, though in some ways, the story of Colavito-for-Kuenn has a lot of parallels to modern-day front office moves.  Money was naturally a factor, as both Colavito and Kuenn were coming off rather contentious contract negotiations, and it seemed as though Lane had misgivings about continuing to pay top dollar for what he felt was a power-only type of ballplayer.

In today’s game, you might see a front office just non-tender an arbitration-eligible slugger rather than work out a trade — just ask Chris Carter or C.J. Cron.  Likewise, many a current GM would undoubtedly prefer more of a well-rounded hitter than a power-only type, though of course Lane was far off the mark both in evaluating Colavito as a one-dimensional hitter, and in betting that Kuenn would continue his 1959 form.

Losing Colavito was a tough beat for Indians fans, though since the Tribe have been regular postseason participants since Pluto’s book was published, maybe the “curse” is technically no more.  Of course, Cleveland also hasn’t won a World Series since 1948 (the longest streak of any team in baseball), so maybe the baseball gods have more of an issue with the Tribe than just the Colavito deal.  Maybe fate simply prefers hamburger to steak.

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