MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?
It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.
The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.
Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”
This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.
They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.
Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.
Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Who Will Win The ALCS?
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Rays 79% (6,667)
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Astros 21% (1,777)
Total votes: 8,444
MLBTR Poll: Rays Or Yankees?
The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.
The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.
Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.
In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.
On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”
The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.
Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”
The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.
Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.
As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.
All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.
(Poll link for app users)
ALDS: Rays Or Yankees?
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Rays in 5 30% (2,808)
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Rays in 4 26% (2,431)
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Yankees in 4 20% (1,838)
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Yankees in 5 20% (1,837)
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Rays in 3 3% (247)
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Yankees in 3 3% (236)
Total votes: 9,397
Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Third Basemen
With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen and shortstops due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the shortstop position, where a few household names are without contracts for 2021.
Top of the Class
- DJ LeMahieu (32): LeMahieu went a half decade between his 2014 appearance at third base with the Rockies and last year’s return to the position (on a part-time basis). He’s still only played 487 innings there over the past two seasons, but the way LeMahieu’s bat has exploded in the Bronx, a team would surely be comfortable moving him off his best position, second base, in order to get his bat in the lineup. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances. He’s also regarded as a plus defender at second base and has experience at first base and shortstop as well.
- Justin Turner (36): Turner will be 36 in November, but he just keeps on raking at the plate. He posted a 140 wRC+ in 2020, slashing .307/.400/.450 in 175 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ he’s been at least 32 percent better than a league-average hitter in all but one season since 2014 — he was “only” 23 percent better in 2016 — and he carries an overall .302/.382/.503 slash in more than 3000 plate appearances since landing in Los Angeles. Durability is something of a concern, and Turner’s once-excellent glovework has begun to deteriorate, but he’s still an outstanding offensive player. Age probably limits him to a short-term deal, which will actually be seen as a perk for some interested parties.
Potential Regulars
- Tommy La Stella (32): La Stella has gone from light-hitting Cubs utilityman to an above-average hitter who teams might be willing to try as a regular at multiple positions. Since Opening Day 2019, he’s taken 549 plate appearances and delivered a .289/.356/.471 batting line while playing his home games in pitcher-friendly settings. That’s good for a 125 wRC+. La Stella isn’t a top-notch defender, but he can handle second and third base. He’s a much better hitter against righties, but La Stella did hold his own against southpaws in 2019.
- Jake Lamb (30): Multiple shoulder injuries relegated Lamb to “reclamation project” status when the D-backs released him this summer, but he immediately bounced back with the A’s. It was only 49 plate appearances, but Lamb looked like his old self, slashing .267/.327/.556 with three big flies in 49 plate appearances. At the very least, that showing could earn him a one-year, make-good deal that he can try to use as a launching pad into a multi-year pact next winter. Lamb can play either corner infield spot, although he fits best on a team who can give him a right-handed-hitting platoon partner.
Part-Time/Utility Players
- Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza was a solid utility piece for the Twins from 2017-19, but his bat cratered in 2020 when he hit .191/.287/.270 in 101 plate appearances. The bat has never been great, but he’s played everywhere except center field and catcher with Minnesota (including two innings on the mound).
- Asdrubal Cabrera (35): Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.
- Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez hit well after a slow start with the 2019 Twins, but he never got into a groove in 2020. The veteran utilityman can play any of the four infield spots and both outfield corners, but he has rather unsurprisingly never replicated his 2017 season with the Astros.
- Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a nice 91-plate appearance run with the Nats in 2020, hitting .278/.352/.418. He’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, but Harrison has a mostly solid track record and can play all over the diamond.
- Adeiny Hechavarria (32): A glove-first utility option who can pick it at shortstop, second base or third base, Hechavarria hit .254/.302/.305 in 63 plate appearances with the 2020 Braves and is a lifetime .253/.291/.351 hitter.
- Brock Holt (33): The 2020 season was a nightmare for the versatile Holt. He looked like an underappreciated free agent last winter despite a .286/.366/.407 slash from 2018-19, and this year’s .211/.283/.274 output won’t help his cause.
- Brad Miller (31): Miller can play all four infield spots and either outfield corner. He hit well in 2020 and owns a combined .247/.329/.468 line in 595 plate appearances dating back to 2018. He’s slugged 27 homers and doubles apiece in that time, tacking on four triples.
- Joe Panik (30): Panik is a lifetime .269/.334/.380 hitter with a good glove at multiple infield spots, but his big 2015 season with the Giants looks like a clear outlier. Since he wrapped up that stellar campaign, he’s turned in a combined .255/.324/.366 slash in 2123 plate appearances. Injuries have played a part, but at this point he’s a glove-first utility player.
Players with 2021 Options
- Todd Frazier, $5.75MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (35): It’s hard to see the Mets picking up the Toddfather’s option after he hit .236/.302/.382 between Texas and New York in 2020.
- Jedd Gyorko, $4.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (32): Gyorko can play all four infield spots and batted .248/.333/.504 with nine homers with the Brewers. His option would seem likely to be picked up in a normal winter, but the Brewers made some surprising option decisions a year ago. With revenue losses throughout the league and several players expected to be non-tendered, Milwaukee might feel a similar skill set can be found more affordably.
- Eric Sogard, $4.5MM club option with $500K buyout (35): The Brewers aren’t going to pick this up after Sogard hit just .209/.281/.278 in his return to Milwaukee. Sogard had a very nice 2019 campaign between Toronto and Tampa Bay, but he looks like a rebound candidate again.
Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Shortstops
With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers and first basemen due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the shortstop position, where a few household names are without contracts for 2021.
Everyday Shortstops
- Marcus Semien (30): It has only been a year since Semien was a superstar-level producer, as the A’s shortstop posted 7.6 fWAR in 2019. This regular season didn’t go nearly as well for Semien, though, considering he wound up with a .223/.305/.374 line (good for a wRC+ of 91 – down 46 points from his previous figure) and seven home runs over 237 trips to the plate. Semien’s Statcast numbers, including an expected weighted on-base average that tumbled from .367 to .274, also plummeted. It’s now up in the air whether the low-budget A’s will issue Semien a qualifying offer once the season ends. It’s tough to believe it has even become a question for someone who was coming off an MVP-type campaign around 12 months ago.
- Didi Gregorius (31): Gregorius starred as a Yankee for much of his Bronx tenure from 2015-19, but he underwent Tommy John surgery before the last of those seasons and missed significant time as a result. Sir Didi also saw his production fall off a cliff when he was healthy enough to play, but after signing a one-year, $14MM contract with the Phillies last winter, he got back on track. Gregorius slashed .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs in 237 plate appearances as a Phillie, and he struck out in a mere 11.8 percent of PA. He’ll be a QO candidate before a potential trip to the market.
- Andrelton Simmons (31): Left ankle problems have weighed down the defensive virtuoso since 2019, when he also struggled at the plate. But, despite not finishing with a single home run, Simmons rebounded this year with 127 plate appearances of .297/.346/.356 hitting. The Angels will now have to decide whether to hand a QO to Simmons, who was a five-fWAR player as recently as 2018.
Utility Types
- Freddy Galvis (31): He’s not the most exciting option, but a team could certainly do worse than Galvis. The versatile infielder, who has tons of experience at short and second, turned in another passable regular season at the plate in 2020. The switch-hitting Galvis concluded with a line of .220/.308/.404 and seven HRs across 159 PA. He has recorded a wRC+ of at least 85 three times in a row.
- Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza gave the Twins league-average production on offense a season ago, but he struggled mightily this year, hitting .191/.287/.270 without a home run in 110 PA. He’s not about to hit free agency at an ideal time, then, though that could make the multi-positional Adrianza an intriguing buy-low candidate for many teams.
- Eric Sogard (35): Like Adrianza, Sogard had a very fine 2019. Sogard signed with the Brewers for $4.5MM after that, but everything went south from there. Along with hitting a woeful .209/281/.278 with one HR across 128 PA, Sogard’s xwOBA dove from .342 to .250 in a one-year span.
Club Option Decisions
- Jose Iglesias (31): Typically known as a slick fielder with an unimposing bat, Iglesias went wild at the plate this year as a member of the Orioles, winding up with a .373/.400/.556 mark and three homers in 150 PA. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about that performance, including a .407 batting average on balls in play that checks in 99 points above his lifetime BABIP, but Iglesias should still be a useful player in 2021 even if his offense returns to its previous form. Therefore, for $3.5MM (compared to a $500K buyout), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the O’s exercise their option over Iglesias.
Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: First Basemen
We already kicked off this year’s position-by-position breakdown of the upcoming free agent class with a look at the market’s catchers. Next up is a crop of first baseman that doesn’t feature many surefire answers for clubs hoping to bolster their production at the position.
Recent Regulars
As a qualifier, there’s no clear, healthy, starting-caliber first baseman coming off a strong season in this year’s class. Due to the lack of a defined “top of the market” option, the top tier on this breakdown will simply be the few guys who have received regular reps in recent years — even if they’re all rebound candidates for one reason or another at this point.
- C.J. Cron (31): Cron mashed four quick taters to open the season before a knee injury required surgery and ended his campaign after just 13 games. From 2018-19 between the Rays and Twins, Cron batted .253/.317/.482 with 55 round-trippers in 1059 plate appearances. There’s obvious power here, and at his best, the right-handed-hitting Cron can flat-out decimate lefties while holding his own against righties. Knee surgery was a bad break, but he’s relatively young and could still be a starting first baseman if his recovery goes well.
- Yuli Gurriel (37): Gurriel hit .298/.343/.541 through 612 plate appearances in 2019 and then faceplanted with a .232/.274/.384 slash through 230 trips to the plate in 2020. He’ll face questions about his poor 2020 season, his age and his ties to the Astros’ 2017 scandal in free agency this winter as he searches for a new club. Gurriel was a superstar in Cuba and quite productive in MLB up until the current campaign. He can also play some third base and second base, though he was exclusively a first baseman/designated hitter in 2020.
- Jake Lamb (30): Shoulder injuries destroyed the end of Lamb’s career in Arizona, but he’s looked good since being released and latching on with the A’s. Lamb hit .267/.327/.556 with four homers in 49 Oakland plate appearances, although that showing still only boosted his overall 2020 line to .196/.283/.352. Lamb swatted 59 homers as the D-backs’ everyday third baseman in 2016-17 before his shoulder troubles set in. If he’s healthy, he’s young enough to reestablish himself as an everyday option at either corner infield spot. He’ll hope for a deep postseason run to continue his turnaround at the dish.
- Justin Smoak (34): The switch-hitting Smoak was better than his low batting average made it seem at first glance in 2019, but his strikeout rate rose by 10 percent in a disastrous Brewers showing in 2020. Smoak went hitless in a brief three-game look with the Giants after being released. From 2017-19, the big slugger hit .243/.350/.470 for Toronto, but this year’s woeful .176/.250/.361 batting line won’t do him many favors in free agency.
- Ryan Zimmerman (36): Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season but made clear that he intends to play again in 2021. A persistent case of plantar fasciitis torpedoed his 2019 season and limited him to just 52 games, but Zimmerman mashed at a .289/.350/.542 clip in 899 plate appearances from 2017-18. It’s hard to envision “Mr. National” playing anywhere other than D.C. A low-cost Nationals reunion certainly makes sense.
Utility Players and Platoon Bats
- Matt Adams (32): Adams has never been able to hit lefties well, but his output against righties cratered in this year’s small sample as well (.152/.188/.261 in 48 plate appearances). He could land another minor league deal as a bench bat.
- Asdrubal Cabrera (35): Cabrera played a career-high 198 2/3 innings at first base this year, hitting .242/.305/.447 with eight dingers. He’s not a shortstop anymore, but the switch-hitter can still handle first, second and third base while providing average or better offense.
- Derek Dietrich (31): Dietrich’s transformation into a three-true-outcomes slugger continued in 2020. He hit .197/.347/.459 and saw just over half of his 75 plate appearances end with a home run (eight), walk (nine) or strikeout (21). He can also play second base, third base and the outfield corners.
- Brad Miller (31): Miller has experience at all four infield spots and in the outfield corners. He’s struggled with consistency, but he hit well in 2020 and owns a combined .247/.329/.468 line in 595 plate appearances dating back to 2018. He’s slugged 27 homers and doubles apiece in that time, tacking on four triples.
- Logan Morrison (33): LoMo rode big Spring Training and Summer Camp performances to a spot on the Brewers’ roster, but he struggled immensely through nine games in the Majors. Morrison bashed 38 home runs with the 2017 Rays, but a torn labrum in his hip wrecked his 2018 season with the Twins. He has yet to bounce back.
- Pablo Sandoval (34): The Panda revived his career with a quality 2018-19 showing in his return to the Giants, but the 2020 season was a disaster. The Braves rather stunningly added him to the roster in advance of the postseason, so perhaps he’ll get a late chance at showing some life. A minor league deal still seems likeliest.
- Neil Walker (35): Walker beat out several other veterans to win a bench spot in Philadelphia, but he hit .231/.244/.308 before he was cut loose earlier this month. The switch-hitter can handle all four corner spots and second base but is sure to be viewed as a bench piece if he keeps playing.
Players with 2021 Options
- Edwin Encarnacion, $12MM club option: Encarnacion was a lock for 30-plus homers from 2012-19 and belted 10 dingers in 2020 — maintaining a 30-homer pace. Unfortunately, he did so while batting just .157/.250/.377 on the whole. This year’s 29.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career by a whopping seven percent. He’ll turn 38 in January.
- Todd Frazier, $5.75MM club option with $1.5MM buyout: The 2020 season was the worst of Frazier’s career at the plate, as he followed up a solid 2019 output with a lowly .236/.302/.382 slash. Frazier can play either corner infield spot and will turn 35 in February.
- Jedd Gyorko, $4.5MM club option with $1MM buyout: Gyorko, who turned 32 earlier this month, hit .248/.333/.504 with nine homers while logging more than 200 innings at first base. He can play all over the infield. His option would seem likely to be picked up in a normal winter, but the Brewers made some surprising option decisions a year ago, and with revenue losses throughout the league, perhaps they’ll feel that a similar skill set will be available more affordably elsewhere on the market. Many utility bats will be non-tendered or cut loose in the coming months.
- Howie Kendrick, $6.5MM mutual option with $2.25MM buyout: The 37-year-old Kendrick hit just .275/.320/.385 in 100 plate appearances with the Nats this year and voiced uncertainty about his future this weekend. It’s hard to see the Nats paying that price with Zimmerman also eyeing a comeback.
- Mitch Moreland, $3MM club option with $500K buyout: The 35-year-old raked with the Red Sox but saw his bat collapse upon a trade to the Padres, for whom he’s posted a dismal .203/.247/.362 slash in 73 plate appearances. It’s still a cheap price, and the Padres gave up some minor league talent to get Moreland, so perhaps he’s still in the 2021 plans.
- Daniel Murphy, $12MM mutual option with $6MM buyout: Huge buyout notwithstanding, the Rox probably won’t have much to think about here. The 35-year-old Murphy hit .236/.275/.333 in 132 trips to the plate in 2020, bringing his Rockies total to .269/.316/.426. That’s 23 percent worse than league average after weighting for his home park, per wRC+ (77).
- Anthony Rizzo, $14.5MM club option with $2MM buyout: It wasn’t a great season for Rizzo, whose .222 average was a career-low, but he kept getting on base and hitting for power. Rizzo popped up at a career-high rate and saw his exit velocity dip, but a correction on this year’s .218 BABIP still seems likely. It’d be a shock to see his option bought out, even coming off a down year at the plate.
- Carlos Santana, $17.5MM club option with $500K buyout: Santana has never walked at a clip better than this year’s 18.4 percent in a full season, but his power dropped to a career-low as well (.150 ISO). The $17MM net value would be steep for the Indians even if Santana had posted a terrific year, but this year’s .199/.349/.350 slash simplifies the decision.
- Eric Thames, $4MM mutual option with $1MM buyout: Thames mashed his way through a three-year stint with the Brewers in his return from a star turn in the KBO, but he hit just .203/.300/.317 in 140 plate appearances with the Nats this year. He’s likely to return to the market. His ability to play the outfield could help him a bit.
Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Catchers
The 2020 season is already winding down, and while more than half the players in baseball are eyeing postseason bids in this year’s expanded format, free agency looms not far beyond. It’s difficult to forecast just how the market will treat free agents in the wake of the sweeping revenue losses throughout the sport. Mookie Betts still got paid like a superstar on his extension, and there’s a general expectation that top-tier talent will still be paid. Many within the sport expect this to be a frigid winter for mid-tier free agents, however, with what is expected to be an aggressive wave of non-tenders only further saturating the market.
Let’s check in on where things stand on a position-by-position basis right now, beginning with this winter’s available catchers. (Players’ age for the 2021 season is listed in parentheses.)
Top of the Class
- J.T. Realmuto (30): As has long been apparent, Realmuto stands alone atop this year’s crop of catchers. He’s been arguably the best all-around catcher in baseball over the past several seasons, and his stock has been elevated to new heights with a .272/.355/.512 slash and 11 homers in 183 plate appearances. He was hobbled by some hip problems recently but is 4-for-12 since returning this week. Realmuto’s bat has been 32 percent better than that of a league-average hitter, per wRC+. Given that the average catcher is 13 percent worse than a league-average hitter by that same measure, his offense is particularly valuable. Realmuto is also a premier defender and even ranks in the 85th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’d be a surprise if he didn’t command a deal worth well north of $100MM.
Other Everyday Options (based on 2020 playing time)
- James McCann (31): McCann got out to a blistering start in 2019 before his production cratered, but he’s raking again in this year’s shortened slate. Through 107 plate appearances, McCann has batted .274/.336/.495, which brings his White Sox total to .273/.330/.466 with 24 homers in 583 plate appearances. There’s some pretty good fortune on balls in play to consider (.354 BABIP), and he’s still prone to strikeouts, but McCann has emerged as an above-average offensive backstop. His framing numbers are up this year, and he’s maintained a strong caught-stealing rate.
- Yadier Molina (38): The Cardinals icon opened some eyes earlier this year when he said he planned to continue playing whether in St. Louis or elsewhere — a departure from his previous “Cardinals or bust” mentality — but it’s hard to envision him playing anywhere else. He won’t command another $20MM salary, not with a .272/.310/.375 line through 146 plate appearances, but it sounds as though he plans to continue playing.
- Austin Romine (32): After years as a backup in the Bronx, Romine got a shot as the primary catching option in Detroit. The Tigers likely hoped that last year’s .281/.310/.439 slash was pointing to better days ahead at the plate, but Romine’s .238/.260/.317 line in 2020 fell back toward his lackluster career levels. A return to a backup role seems likelier than another starting gig.
- Mike Zunino (30): Zunino has never hit for average and probably strikes out too often to ever do so. However, he also has as much raw power as any catcher in MLB and is considered a premium defender at his position.
- Jason Castro (34): Castro’s massive strikeout rates are the trade-off for his excellent walk rate and his strong defensive skills. After batting .229/.325/.390 in three seasons with the Twins, he’s hitting .194/.310/.389 in 84 plate appearances between the Halos and Padres. Castro has some pop to go along with the OBP and glove, making his low average more tolerable. He’s been relegated to backup duty since being flipped from Anaheim to San Diego, so you could argue he belongs in the next tier of this breakdown, but he’s been a starter everywhere except his brief run with the Friars.
Backup/Timeshare Candidates
- Alex Avila (34): Avila has been a “three true outcomes” backup for several years, but while the walks and whiffs are still there, he’s lost the most important outcome in 2020. Avila has homered just once in 60 plate appearances with the Twins.
- Drew Butera (37): Butera seems to find his way to the Rockies or Royals every year. The veteran backup has never hit much but has carved out an 11-year MLB career on the strength of his reputation as a receiver.
- Welington Castillo (34): Castillo was looking to rebuild his stock on a minor league deal with the Nats after a dismal two-year White Sox run, but he opted out of the season at the beginning of Summer Camp.
- Francisco Cervelli (35): In a concerning trend, Cervelli missed much of the 2020 season with yet another concussion. It’s the seventh career IL trip due to concussion symptoms for Cervelli and his sixth since 2017. When healthy, Cervelli can hit, frame and throw well, but he’s been on the IL in each of the past five seasons.
- Tyler Flowers (35): Long a premium framer who has mashed lefty pitching, the right-handed-hitting Flowers has seen his production against southpaws evaporate over the past two seasons.
- Bryan Holaday (33): Holaday boasts a career 30.7 percent caught-stealing rate, but his overall track record at the plate is poor. He’s still found his way onto a big league roster each year since 2012, so clubs clearly respect the veteran as a depth/backup option.
- Erik Kratz (41): Kratz keeps landing with the Yankees — three minor league deals in four years — which makes sense as an Eastern Pennsylvania native who still resides near the club’s Scranton affiliate. He’ll be 41 next year, but Kratz is as respected as they come in clubhouses and could get another minors pact if he wants to keep playing.
- Sandy Leon (32): Leon’s huge 2016 season with the Red Sox looks like a clear outlier, as he’s hit .194/.261/.307 in four subsequent campaigns. He’s a quality defender with great caught-stealing and framing marks.
- Jeff Mathis (38): Speaking of great defenders, Mathis has as strong a reputation with the glove as any catcher in MLB. His bat has wilted to near-historic levels over the past couple seasons, but he wants to play in ’21 and is open to a limited role as a backup/mentor with the Rangers.
- Josh Phegley (33): Phegley has nabbed nearly a third of runners who have tried to run against him in his big league career. He struggles to get on base but does have good pop against lefties.
- Rene Rivera (37): Another quality defender with a limited offensive track record, Rivera hasn’t topped 100 plate appearances since the 2017 season. His defensive reputation should land him minor league offers this winter if he wants to keep going.
- Kurt Suzuki (37): Suzuki can still swing it better than your average catcher, slashing .257/.333/.385 in 116 plate appearances. He’s not regarded as a strong defender, and his longstanding issue controlling the running game has persisted in 2020 (5-for-32).
- Matt Wieters (35): Wieters has spent two seasons as a seldom-used backup to iron man Yadier Molina in St. Louis. He’s batted .209/.268/.398 with 11 dingers in 221 plate appearances for the Cards.
Players with Contractual Options
- Robinson Chirinos, $6.5MM club option with $1MM buyout: It’s all but a formality that this will be bought out. Chirinos has received just 30 plate appearances since being traded from the Rangers to the Mets and is sitting on a woeful .169/.241/.251 slash in 2020. He’ll turn 37 next June.
- Roberto Perez, $5.5MM club option with $450K buyout: Perez will be 32 next season and is having a miserable year with the bat, but he’s an all-world defender who ripped 24 home runs in 2019. Perez leads all catchers in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons — it’s not close — and his glove alone arguably makes him worth this sum even if his 2019 offense was a fluke. That’s especially true considering his deal also carries a 2022 option.
- Wilson Ramos, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout: Ramos’ second season in Queens has been pedestrian, at best (.241/.301/.376). The Buffalo no longer resembles the force at the plate he once was, and he’s always been more of a bat-first option behind the dish.
- Stephen Vogt: The 35-year-old is actually close to seeing this vesting option kick in — he’d need to appear in each of the team’s final three games — but that seems unlikely. The D-backs have sat Vogt in all but four games this month, and while there’s probably a direct correlation between the drop in playing time and that vesting clause, the team can point to Vogt’s .147/.234/.265 slash as clear justification for sitting him.
Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates
We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt. Of course, it’s very much up in the air just how many significant deals will go down during a pandemic-shortened campaign that not only features just 60 regular-season games, but more teams dreaming of playoff berths than usual. Major League Baseball decided to add three extra playoff teams per league for 2020, and that’s obviously going to impact how clubs handle the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said as much last Friday, telling Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that playoff expansion has led to “fewer” sellers than usual as Aug. 31 approaches.
Another factor that could lead to fewer trades: Players who may be dealt must consider whether they want to change teams and home cities as the coronavirus runs amok. Any player who may be on the move could decide to opt out of the season if he’s uncomfortable uprooting his life.
As a deadline unlike any we’ve seen before nears, let’s dive into our list (statistics current as of Aug. 24)…
1. Taijuan Walker, SP, Mariners: Walker is an affordable impending free agent on a clear non-contender. He’s a pure rental, but plenty of contenders are looking for rotation reinforcements. Walker has had two tough starts and three very good ones, leading to a combined 4.00 ERA with a 25-to-8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings.
2. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates: Similar to Walker in Seattle, Kela is an impending free agent and an established pitcher on MLB’s worst team. There’s no incentive for the Bucs to hang onto him, and while the return for a one-month rental of a reliever won’t be huge, it’s better than letting him walk for nothing. Kela missed the first several weeks of 2020 on the Covid-19 IL, and he was pulled from his last appearance due to forearm tightness. The Pirates called that decision “overly cautious.” So long as he’s healthy, Kela is a lock to be flipped.
3. Dylan Bundy, SP, Angels: The once-elite prospect has looked like the ace many expected him to become, and while it’s only six starts, it’s hard not to be impressed. The Angels could hang onto him for next year, but they’re buried in the standings right now and as a pitcher controllable through 2021, Bundy will have much more appeal than rentals. GM Billy Eppler could likely flip Bundy for more than the meager price he paid to acquire him this winter. Few players have raised their stock more, and the demand for rotation help far outweighs the supply.
4. Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers: Lynn’s ascension to one of the game’s best arms has come out of the blue, but there’s little denying how great he’s been since signing in Texas. He’s half through a three-year, $30MM deal and has thus far pitched to a 3.30 ERA and 3.15 FIP with 10.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.92 HR/9. Lynn rarely throws anything other than a four-seamer or cutter, but the formula works for him; he’s lasted at least five innings in 39 of his 40 Rangers starts and averaged 6 1/3 frames per outing. Signed through next season on a Rangers club that has dropped eight of nine, Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.
5-6. Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland, RPs, Royals: The Royals picked up both formerly elite closers on minor league deals this winter and have been rewarded handsomely — particularly in the case of Rosenthal, who has allowed two runs with a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 frames. They’re highly affordable and on a team that is five games below .500, they should be highly available, too. The Royals opted not to move Ian Kennedy last year, and he’s a pending free agent as well, but he’s also on a $16.5MM salary in 2020 (prorated to $5.9MM) and pitching poorly.
7. Kevin Gausman, SP, Giants: The Giants signed Gausman as a one-year rental, knowing full well they’d be in position to flip him prior to the trade deadline. He’s delivered a 42-to-6 K/BB ratio with a career-best 12.2 K/9 and a 3.10 FIP so far through 31 innings. The rental market doesn’t feature many prominent names in 2020, but Gausman is among the best performers and likeliest names to be moved.
8. Tony Watson, RP, Giants: A veteran lefty that’ll become a free agent after the 2020 season, Watson has allowed one run through 9 2/3 frames with the Giants. He has closing experience, handles righties nearly as well as lefties and is playing on an affordable one-year deal. There’s little reason for Giants to hold here, and any club in need of ‘pen help would harbor some level of interest.
9. Kevin Pillar, OF, Red Sox: Seeking a steady veteran for their outfield back in February, the Red Sox inked Pillar to a one-year, $4.25MM deal after the club traded Mookie Betts. Needless to say, Pillar’s no Betts, but the former Blue Jay and Giant has been a bright spot on a bad Boston team. Pillar, 31, has batted .278/.340/.454 through 106 plate appearances, though his numbers have tumbled recently. Regardless, Pillar’s a well-regarded defender (albeit not the all-world one he used to be) who can play all three outfield positions and a passable enough hitter that he could garner interest from contenders looking to bolster outfield depth.
10. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels: Simmons would be higher on the list had he been healthy and productive all year, but he’s played in just seven games due to an ankle injury. The 30-year-old has been the best defender in MLB dating back to his debut and could very well change hands in the next few days. But he’s also a qualifying offer candidate, and if the offers for him don’t outweigh the value of a compensatory draft pick, the Halos could just hold.
11-12. Tommy La Stella, INF; Jason Castro, C, Angels: A pair of affordable veterans who are set to be free agents this winter, La Stella and Castro both figure to be available. La Stella’s bat has erupted with a .288/.350/.478 showing since he landed in Anaheim in 2019. Castro isn’t hitting for average, but he’s considered a premium defender with huge walk rates and some pop in his bat. That’s been the case with the Halos and will be the case wherever else he lands.
13. Derek Holland, SP/RP, Pirates: The Bucs have used Holland in the rotation (plus one relief outing), and he’s been a passable option outside a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. A rival club might not view him as a rotation piece, but lefties are hitting .143/.143/.214 against Holland this year. The three-batter minimum limits a team’s ability to use anyone as a specialist, but Holland has a long enough track record in the Majors that someone could still drop him into the ‘pen and hope to match him up against lefties more than righties.
14. Matt Barnes, RP, Red Sox: Barnes has already watched teammates Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree get shipped out, and he’s not likely to be far behind. It’s true that he’s had a pair of rough outings recently that have ballooned his ERA to 5.73, but it’s also true that he averaged better than 15 K/9 last year. Since 2016, Barnes has a 3.92 ERA and 3.38 FIP with 12.3 K/9. He’s controlled through 2021.
15. Buck Farmer, RP, Tigers: Farmer has emerged as a steady relief presence in a shaky Detroit bullpen. He’s dropped his slider usage in favor of his changeup this year, with the result being far fewer strikeouts but considerably more grounders. Farmer is controlled cheaply through 2022 and induces gobs of weak contact.
16-17. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, RPs, Orioles: The O’s start to the season turned some heads, but they’ve dropped seven of 10 and faded from the division picture, as most would expect. Givens, controlled through 2021, has been a rumored trade piece for years and is out to another strong start. Castro, controlled through 2022, has 21 punchouts and a career-high 54.5 percent grounder rate in 13 2/3 innings. Baltimore could shop them individually, but a package deal could hold appeal to a bullpen-needy club.
18. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox: Long a sterling defensive backstop, Vazquez broke out with 23 big flies last season and hit .276/.320/.477 overall. He’s not hitting as well in 2020, but Vazquez is at least an average hitter at his position with a plus glove. He’s guaranteed $6.25MM in 2021 and has a $7MM club option for 2022.
19-20. Mike Clevinger, Zach Plesac, SPs, Indians: Clevinger and Plesac have shown they’re capable of performing at high levels, and they’re each under control for multiple years. Both pitchers violated the league’s health-and-safety protocols this month, though, drawing some ire within the organization. The Indians optioned both players after that, even though they provide plenty of on-field value, and finally recalled Clevinger on Tuesday. He’s the likelier of the two to move given his mounting arbitration salary and lesser amount of team control. He’s controlled through 2022, while Plesac is controlled through 2025.
21. Matt Magill, RP, Mariners: Magill’s 2020 numbers are skewed after being rocked for five runs in one outing last week, but prior to that he looked like a terrific waiver gem for the M’s. If you’re willing to allow that all relievers are prone to the occasional implosion, Magill’s first 30 appearances with the Mariners produced a 2.67 ERA and 2.94 FIP with 11.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a hefty 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate. Magill bounced back from that brutal appearance with a perfect inning. He’s controlled through 2023 and has a 3.94 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings with the Mariners.
22. Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B, Orioles: Alberto just hasn’t stopped hitting with the O’s. He’s batting .305/.329/.429 in 671 plate appearances dating back to 2019. Alberto almost never walks (2.9% in Baltimore), but he’s also extremely difficult to strike out (10 percent). His power output is up in 2020 thanks to a deluge of doubles, and he’s a solid glove at either second or third (and playable at short in a pinch). The O’s control him through 2022, but a contending club with infield needs could benefit immediately.
23. Brian Goodwin, OF, Angels: Claimed off release waivers from the Royals at the end of Spring Training 2019, Goodwin has batted .258/.325/.470 in 555 plate appearances with the Halos over his past 162 games. He’s controllable through 2022 and has experience at all three outfield spots, but the Halos have Jo Adell up with Brandon Marsh not far behind. Moving Goodwin could open more time for the kids while returning some decent talent. (They’re not getting out from under the Justin Upton deal anytime soon.)
24. Rick Porcello, SP, Mets: The Mets play nine games in the next six days — 2020 is weird, folks — which will largely determine their deadline approach. Porcello was absolutely clobbered in his first start (seven runs, two innings) and has pitched well since (11 runs, 23 innings, 20-to-3 K/BB ratio). If things go south for the Mets, he’ll vault up this list.
25. Brandon Kintzler, RP, Marlins: The 36-year-old looks like he usually does: low strikeout rate, excellent control, plus ground-ball rate. He has high-leverage experience, gets gobs of grounders with a bowling-ball sinker and is playing on a one-year deal with a Miami club that has admittedly surprised to this point. Maybe the Fish will feel the return doesn’t justify dealing him when they’re on the fringe of the postseason race, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Kintzler move.
Click to continue reading…
Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip
Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.
Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.
But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.
It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.
Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.
Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.
“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.
Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.
None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.
Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.
Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.
That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.
There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.
MLBTR Poll: Sustainable Hitter Breakout
The trade deadline is approaching. Heck, the postseason races are already taking shape. But it’s still exceedingly early in this oddest of MLB seasons. With the action unfolding on a tightened timeline, it’s more necessary than ever not to ignore the short-sample alerts.
That said, it’s hard to ignore some of the unexpected names near the top of the WAR leaderboard with a quarter of a (partial-) season in the bag. Each of these six guys ranks among the top twenty fWAR accumulators in baseball. Four of ’em have added more value to this point of the season than living legend Mike Trout.
So … which player is likeliest to sustain something approaching their early 2020 star turn? (In alphabetical order.)
JaCoby Jones, OF, Tigers: .333/.391/.786 through 46 plate appearances. The 28-year-old hadn’t done much with his first thousand or so MLB plate appearances, but he’s suddenly knocking the socks off of the ball. Though his K/BB numbers are about as shrug-worthy as before, Jones is suddenly showing a whole lotta slug. He’s in the top ten percent leaguewide in barrel percentage and hard contact rate.
Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: .373/.440/.567 through 75 plate appearances. An elite draft prospect, Lewis saw his development stunted by injuries. He’s now coming into his own, though it’s hard to look past that glaring .512 batting average on balls in play. There are a lot of strikeouts, too, though Lewis is also walking at a decent clip (10.7%). While Statcast isn’t impressed with how hard he hits the ball, it does credit him with a strong barrel percentage and good wheels.
Dylan Moore, OF, Mariners: .333/.388/.689 through 49 plate appearances. This looks to be a pretty clear instance of a nice dozen-game hot streak that’ll be hard to keep up. Moore is carrying a 30.6% walk rate and 4.1% K rate while benefiting from a hefty .423 BABIP. Then again, Moore is legitimately hammering the ball, ranking among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity. Perhaps he’s on to something here.
Austin Slater, OF, Giants: .333/.450/.667 through 40 plate appearances. Slater is running and gunning thus far, logging three homers and four swiped bags while sporting a solid 12.5% walk rate. That 208 wRC+ really pops for a guy that contributes in other areas of the game. Slater has had his chances before and hadn’t ever put it all together. But he was quite good at Triple-A and held his own in the majors in 2019. Could he be turning into a quality big leaguer?
Donovan Solano, INF, Giants: .458/.476/.661 through 63 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily a whole new thing so much as a surprising continuation of a nice 2019 showing. But holy smokes, look at that batting average! It’s riding on a mind-blowing .520 BABIP … which follows a .409 mark from last year. Solano isn’t exactly mashing, but he sure is translating his contact ability into results — and not just because of good fortune. Statcast credits him with a 97th percentile expected batting average.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants: .306/.442/.629 through 77 plate appearances. Just another San Francisco superstar slugger, no big deal. Like Solano, Yaz 2.0 did turn in very good numbers last year. But we were all prepared to see him step back in 2020, right? Instead, there’s something all the more intriguing going on. Yasztrzemski has already drawn 15 walks to go with his 16 strikeouts on the season, providing yet more evidence that he has really figured things out.
So, which player is most likely to carry this forward? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Most Likely To Sustain Early Breakout?
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Mike Yastrzemski 51% (3,332)
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Kyle Lewis 30% (1,981)
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JaCoby Jones 8% (495)
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Donovan Solano 6% (378)
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Austin Slater 3% (182)
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Dylan Moore 3% (168)
Total votes: 6,536
Poll: Big-Budget Long-Term Payrolls
Looking at long-range payroll commitments, there’s a fairly sizable gap between the top-five spenders and the number six club (the Padres, at a total of $396MM). Here’s that top-five:
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | Angels | $651.00 |
| 2 | Yankees | $612.00 |
| 3 | Dodgers | $533.36 |
| 4 | Nationals | $488.68 |
| 5 | Phillies | $488.50 |
That list isn’t remotely surprising. Some other deep-pocketed teams have pared back or simply not yet agreed to blockbuster extensions with existing stars. The handful of teams listed above have each recently agreed to monster contracts with one or more superstars.
Looking at a team’s future outlook involves quite a bit more than its contractual commitments. We’d want to consider controllable young talent, the prospect pool, and a wide variety of business factors in assessing which organization is best-situated for the long haul.
Here, though, we’ll just focus on the deals that are already locked in. First, I’ll re-list each of those five teams’ eexisting commitments. Then, you will vote for the one that you’d most prefer to have were you operating a large-budget franchise. (Click on the links to expand the image.)
The Angels feature two mid-prime superstars, including the greatest player of this generation.
The Yankees have an ace, a former MVP who could still return to his former glory, and a group of quality players.
The Dodgers had only limited future commitments until they struck a bold deal to keep one of the game’s best players.
The Nationals are all-in on high-grade rotation pieces.
The Phillies spent big to pluck high-end talent from division rivals.
Which is the best slate of contract commitments? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Which big-budget contract mix is best?
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Dodgers 44% (2,067)
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Yankees 21% (990)
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Angels 16% (739)
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Nationals 11% (541)
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Phillies 8% (368)
Total votes: 4,705