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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

By | at October 21, 2020 3:31pm CDT

Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at October 21, 2020 8:37am CDT

The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020, although that came as little surprise following a winter where their only moves of note were to fire their manager, fire their GM and eventually trade away their best position player. They’ll have the top pick in next summer’s draft and another offseason that could subtract some notable names from the big league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $14MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option; contract also contains 2023 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using his 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Other Contractual Obligations

  • The Pirates technically owe Felipe Vazquez $7.75MM in 2021, but he’s not earning his salary while on the restricted list due to the abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges brought forth against him in 2019.

The Pirates will head into the 2020-21 offseason with an offense that scored the fewest runs in baseball (219) and a pitching staff that ranked 19th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. It’d be impossible to fix this club in just one offseason, but that’s of course not the goal of GM Ben Cherington and his staff, who surely knew they were signing on for a rebuilding effort when ownership fired former GM Neal Huntington.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, virtually every would-be trade chip on the roster saw his value disintegrate in what was a disastrous 2020 season. Chris Archer could have been one of the more intriguing arms on the trade market but didn’t pitch after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. That procedure makes his $11MM club option a virtual lock to be bought out, which should formally close the books on one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Closer Keone Kela was a no-brainer trade piece but missed the early portion of the season on the Covid-19 injured list and immediately went down with a forearm issue that ultimately ended his season. Both physical setbacks surely deprived the Pirates of the chance to acquire some younger, cost-controlled talent.

Archer and Kela were far from the only injuries that hindered any would-be rebuilding efforts for Cherington & Co., however. Right-hander Joe Musgrove hit the IL with a triceps injury in early August and wasn’t able to return prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. He was still discussed in trades — the Blue Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal, in fact — but Musgrove stayed put and will surely be on the market again this winter. Hot-hitting Colin Moran could conceivably have garnered interest from teams in need of a bat; he was hitting .259/.326/.531 as of Aug. 23 — when he was hit by a pitch and diagnosed with a concussion that kept him out until the deadline had passed.

When all was said and done, Jarrod Dyson was the only player the Pirates moved — a deal that netted them a bit of extra cash to devote to international free agency. Musgrove and fellow righty starter Trevor Williams were discussed but never moved, and the Pirates’ remaining trade assets all flopped in terms of performance. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco all hit so poorly that it’s hard to imagine many contenders even carried substantial interest — and that’s an issue that dovetails nicely into what a tough situation Cherington and his staff will face this winter. Here’s a look at what each of those three players did in 2020:

  • Bell: .226/.305/.364, eight home runs, career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate
  • Polanco: .153/.214/.325, seven home runs, career-worst 37.4 percent strikeout rate
  • Frazier: .230/.297/.364, seven home runs, career-worst 15.2 percent strikeout rate

Under normal circumstances, any of those three would ostensibly be an appealing trade chip. Polanco has battled injuries and inconsistency, but at his best in 2018, he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples, a dozen steals and decent defense in right field. Bell crushed 37 home runs last year, and while he’s a poor defender at first base, he’s also a switch-hitter who is controlled through the 2022 season. Frazier isn’t as well-known but entered the 2020 season with a career .279/.342/.420 slash. Like Bell, he’s controlled through 2022.

Minor struggles or a slight down season might’ve helped to keep interest in that trio alive, but Bell and Polanco, in particular, ranked among MLB’s worst players. Of the 310 players in baseball to take at least 100 plate appearances this year, Bell’s -0.4 fWAR tied him for 283rd, while Polanco checked in at 303rd. Maybe a team would still like to acquire Bell while his salary is manageable and roll the dice on his two years of club control, but no one would pay a premium to do so. Polanco’s salary now looks mostly immovable. Frazier’s season wasn’t quite as dire, but a trade would still be selling quite low on a typically steady producer.

There are similar quandaries in the rotation. Trevor Williams got out to a solid start to his 2020 season but was shelled over his final six starts. In his final 31 frames, he yielded 28 earned runs on 41 hits (12 homers) and 13 walks with 26 punchouts. Chad Kuhl posted a respectable 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he also walked 28 batters and hit a pair in that time, resulting in an ugly 5.48 FIP and 4.98 xFIP. Jameson Taillon moved another year closer to free agency in 2020, but the Pirates can’t be expected to trade him when he hasn’t pitched since June 2019 due to his second Tommy John surgery. All three of those pitchers are controlled through 2022, so there’s time to build some value back up next season.

If there’s one bright spot from the rotation that should bring the Bucs a nice haul this winter, it’s the aforementioned Musgrove. His forearm troubles limited him to 39 2/3 frames in 2020, but he was quite good when healthy (3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55-to-16 K/BB ratio, 48.2 percent grounder rate). Thankfully for the Pirates, Musgrove finished well upon his return and was utterly dominant in his final two outings: 13 shoutout frames against the Indians and Cardinals with a 21-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’s controlled another two seasons, and with a 4.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 325 1/3 innings since being acquired by Pittsburgh, he’ll be among the more appealing arms on the trade market this winter — especially considering a projected salary south of $4MM.

There are certainly some other arms the Bucs could market to the league’s many pitching-needy clubs. Southpaw Steven Brault turned in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP through 42 2/3 frames, working mostly as a starter. His previous track record was limited, but he’s controlled through 2023 (and sings one heck of a National Anthem). Right-hander Richard Rodriguez quietly posted a 2.70 ERA/2.85 FIP with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames. Chris Stratton, acquired from the Angels for cash in 2019, has a 3.76 ERA and matching FIP with 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 76 2/3 innings as a Pirate. Both relievers are controlled through 2023 as well.

Perhaps behind the plate, 30-year-old Jacob Stallings could be an under-the-radar trade candidate. Stallings has hit .256/.326/.380 over the past two seasons while also serving as one of the best defenders in baseball. He’ll be 31 in December, but he’s controlled through 2024. It’d be a leap of faith for a contending club to plug him in as a starter, but over Stallings’ past 353 plate appearances, he’s been worth 2.4 fWAR and rWAR alike. If nothing else, his considerable platoon splits would make his right-handed bat a strong complement to another club’s left-handed-hitting starter.

Certainly, that’s a lot of focus on what the Pirates could subtract this winter and not much of a look at what they could add. It goes without saying that the Bucs won’t be players for any of the market’s top free agents or any high-profile players on the trade market. That doesn’t mean Cherington’s group will entirely eschew some free-agent additions, however. In fact, there’s good reason to argue for the Pirates being fairly aggressive with short-term adds in free agency.

Assuming a Musgrove trade is ultimately put together, there will be space in the rotation to attract free-agent starters in search of rebounds. Taillon and righty Mitch Keller should have spots locked down, and either of Williams or Kuhl could get another look if they’re not traded. Adding a rotation piece in need of a bounceback — or perhaps a young, non-tendered arm with some upside — would be wise.

The current group of free-agent starters includes rebound candidates like Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Tyler Chatwood and numerous others. The non-tender market will add alternatives, with Jose Urena, Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz standing out as a few speculative possibilities. The Pirates have a fairly pitcher-friendly park and a clear path to innings — something many contending clubs won’t be able to offer.

That’s even more true in the bullpen, where there should be numerous spots up for grabs in Spring Training. Promising a few spots to relievers in search of a rebound is sensible given the dearth of proven arms in the current group and the potential to spin any new signings into a decent return come July. We see this sort of deal come together every year around the league, with Kansas City’s recent Trevor Rosenthal addition standing as the most recent example.

With the entire Pirates outfield struggling badly in 2020, the Bucs would be a nice soft landing spot for any free agent whose market collapses — a near inevitability given the expected lack of spending among teams and the potential flooding of the market following the non-tender date. They’ll want to leave space to allow 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds to rebound and, quite likely, to give waiver pickup Anthony Alford a platform to audition. Shortstop-turned-outfielder Cole Tucker should get a look as well. Still, there ought to be enough fluidity to grab a veteran who could provide stability, competitive at-bats and perhaps be flipped as was the case with Dyson this year.

The infield should be mostly set with breakout sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had one of the best showings of any rookie once he was finally called to the big leagues, getting the third base job from the outset. Moran and Bell can pair to handle duties at first base and, if it’s implemented permanently in the NL, at designated hitter. Frazier’s track record should be enough to give him a mulligan on his poor 2020 showing if he isn’t traded. The possibility of a non-tender involving Bell, Frazier or Moran can’t be completely ruled out, but any would register as a surprise.

It’s also plausible that the Bucs could add at shortstop, where none of Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer or the aforementioned Tucker has solidified himself. The 27-year-old Newman was terrific in 2019 but, like many of his teammates, floundered at the plate in 2020. Right hip surgery, meanwhile, wiped out Kramer’s entire season. Perhaps the Pirates could give a versatile option like Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar a look on a bounceback deal if neither is finding much of a market. There may be some speculation connecting the Bucs to KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll be posted this winter, given the team’s prior winning of the Jung Ho Kang bidding back in 2014. But Kim is a better player, should cost more and should also field offers from more competitive clubs; a match here would be a surprise.

Broadly speaking, it should be a quiet offseason for a Pirates club that, more than anything else, needs to see key 2019 contributors rebound in 2021. It will be critical for Bell, Polanco, Frazier, Williams and others to reestablish some trade value as their club control continues to dwindle. Should that not pan out, there could be a very different and difficult set of decisions for the Bucs to make this time next year. In the meantime, Pirates fans can look forward to watching Hayes build on his astounding debut effort as they continue to dream of what next year’s No. 1 overall pick might bring.

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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

By | at October 19, 2020 9:37am CDT

The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ‘faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The World Series?

  • Dodgers 51% (5,753)
  • Rays 49% (5,610)

Total votes: 11,363

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Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

By | at October 17, 2020 5:31pm CDT

With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and third basemen due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the keystone, where utility options are in abundance.

Top of the Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): The American League batting champ is the cream of the crop at second base. Given his ability to slide anywhere in the infield, he’s about as valuable a commodity as can be found on the open market this winter. There will be widespread interest. Still, second base is his best position, and he’s easily the best player available in this spot. Don’t be surprised to see him sign somewhere with a need at the keystone – even returning to the Bronx. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances.

Potential Regulars

  • Jonathan Villar (30): Villar split his time between the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2020, but he fell short of reproducing the solid effort from the year prior. Between the two stops, he slashed just .232/.301/.292 while receiving regular playing time. There are some rumblings that he’s a second-division kind of guy, and he may have to choose between playing every down for a mid-tier club, or accepting a utility spot for a contender. He’s a dirt dog who runs well and can handle any spot up the middle, including centerfield.
  • Tommy La Stella (32): The A’s like La Stella and will likely try to bring him back. His ability to play second or third while posting professional at-bats and keeping the ball in play make him an appealing option league-wide, however. He’s also not likely to break the bank. He’ll not want to return to pinch-hitting duty, so a regular role will be a must – especially after a solid .281/.370/.449 effort between the Angels and A’s in 2020.
  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Hernandez impressed in his lone season with the Indians. If the price is right, both sides might look for a repeat performance after the long-time Phillie slashed .283/.355/.408 with a league-leading 20 doubles across 261 plate appearances. After middling defensive numbers with the Phillies, he got good marks for his work at the keystone in 2020 (6 DRS, 3.8 UZR). Hernandez should have no problem finding a regular role somewhere.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): Profar made good on his opportunity with the Padres, hitting .278/.343/.428 with 7 home runs across 202 plate appearances. He played more outfield than second base this season, but that was mostly a function of Jake Cronenworth‘s breakout. Profar certainly enjoyed his time in San Diego, but his versatility could make him an asset on many teams. Where he suits up in 2021 should come down to price point.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Schoop mashed in his first season with the Tigers: .278/.324/.475 with 8 home runs in 2020. He still handles himself well defensively at second, but he doesn’t bring the versatility of many players on this list.

Part-Time/Utility Players

  • Enrique Hernandez (29): Kiké fits the mold of a number of players on this list, guys who can handle regular to semi-regular playing time while filling in all over the diamond. Hernandez has been the second-stringer to Chris Taylor in this role for the Dodgers, but he nonetheless gets somewhere between 200-500 at-bats per season, and they trust him in the postseason. He hit .230/.270/.410 in 2020, and if the Dodgers don’t return him to the roster, someone else will.
  • Freddy Galvis (31): Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 across 159 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds. He can play both spots up the middle, and the switch-hitter does just enough at the plate to remain a viable option for everyday at-bats.
  • Jason Kipnis (34): The long-term Cleveland Indian saw regular playing time with the Cubs in 2020, slashing .237/.341/.404. He did just enough to keep getting the call at the 9-spot in the order, but he’s probably best utilized in a heavy timeshare.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): MLBTR’s Steve Adams said it best when previewing the market for third baseman: “Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.”
  • Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a decent run with the Nationals in 2020 after the Phillies cut him loose. He hit .278/.352/.418 across 91 plate appearances while making a good impression on manager Davey Martinez. He runs well enough and plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher. Don’t be surprised to see the Nationals bring him back in 2021.
  • Brock Holt (32): Likewise, Holt impressed with the Nats after a disastrous turn to start the year with the Brewers. Not only did he hit .262/.314/.354 across 70 plate appearances in Washington, but he rocked a mustache and made two appearances on the mound.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez spent the past two seasons with the Twins, slashing .248/.311/.387. He maintains the ability to play everywhere, though he made just one appearance at shortstop over his two seasons in Minnesota.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (32): The defensive wizard appeared in 27 games for the Braves this year, slashing .254/.302/.305. He hasn’t been in consideration for postseason action. His value on this list lies in his ability to play a competent defensive shortstop.
  • Chris Owings (29): Owings got 44 plate appearances with the Rockies this year and held his own, hitting .268/.318/.439. His value comes in his versatility, however. Despite only appearing in 17 games, Owings spent time at every position except pitcher and catcher, even pinch-hitting three times and pinch-running twice.
  • Neil Walker (35): Walker was a semi-regular as recently as 2019 for the Marlins and 2018 with the Yankees. In 2020, however, he appeared in just 18 games, slashing .231/.244/.308 with the Phillies. Defense has never been his forte, but he can handle a glove at first, second, or third, while even taking an occasional turn in the outfield.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie’s disastrous tenure with the Mets ended with just 8 plate appearances in two years. If the long-time veteran can get healthy, someone will give him a look, but that’s a big if.
  • Logan Forsythe (34): Forsythe’s best days are behind him. He hit just .118 in very limited action this year for the Marlins, and it’s been a long time since he glory days in Tampa. Still, he provides a good eye at the plate and enough positional versatility to get a look somewhere as a non-roster invitee.
  • Joe Panik (30): Panik’s days as a regular at the keystone are probably over. He hit .225/.340/.300 across 141 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2020 while moving between second, third, and short. That’s his role moving forward, but the playing time he received in 2020 extrapolates to 380 plate appearances in a full season – I’ll take the under on that number moving forward.

Players with 2021 Options

  • Kolten Wong, $12.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (30): Wong doesn’t bring much in the way of power, but he puts together good at-bats and plays gold glove defense. He slashed .265/.350/.326 in 2020, putting him somewhat on the bubble for 2021, but chances are the Cardinals find some way to bring him back.
  • Daniel Descalso, $3.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (34): Descalso won’t have this option picked up, despite providing more-or-less exactly what the Cubs hoped from him in terms of clubhouse/veteran presence. On the diamond, however, Descalso missed all of 2020 after slashing just .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019.
  • Leury Garcia $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout (30): This one could go either way. The White Sox love Garcia, and with Nick Madrigal coming back from injury, the ChiSox may prefer to bring back Garcia. He hit a palatable .271/.317/.441 across 63 plate appearances in 2020.
  • Dee Strange-Gordon, $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout (33): The Mariners will buy out Strange-Gordon after another lackluster season at the plate (42 wRC+). Great speed and the ability to play the outfield should get him a look somewhere, perhaps even with a contender in the mold of Billy Hamilton.
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Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers

By | at October 17, 2020 12:19pm CDT

After examining which position players may or may not be in line to receive a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer this winter, let’s look at the pitching side of the free agent market.  For a refresher on how the qualifying offer system operates, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently published the key details, including draft pick compensation and how the QO cannot be applied to a player more than once.

The Easy Call: Trevor Bauer (Reds)

Bauer is the one slam-dunk candidate of the field, as the Reds will surely issue him a QO and Bauer will just as surely reject it as he looks for a richer contract.  Cincinnati would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick if Bauer signed elsewhere, though the somewhat unique nature of Bauer’s free agent plans could impact that pick.  As a revenue-sharing team, the Reds’ compensatory pick would fall after the first round of the draft, but only if Bauer signs for more than $50MM.  If Bauer were to stick to his one-time plan of accepting a one-year contract with a very high average annual value, it’s possible such a deal might not crack the $50MM threshold — say, if Bauer took a one-year, $45MM pact.  In this scenario, the Reds’ pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, or roughly 35-40 picks under their placement if Bauer signed for more than $50MM.

Borderline Cases: Kevin Gausman (Giants), Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees), Marcus Stroman (Mets), Liam Hendriks (Athletics)

After a shaky 2019 season, Gausman was non-tendered by the Reds and ended up signing a one-year, $9MM with San Francisco.  The “pillow contract” strategy ended up working, as Gausman posted a strong year and is now positioned for a larger free agent payday.  On paper, it seems like Gausman a logical candidate to be issued a qualifying offer, though the situation may not quite be so clear cut — MLB.com’s Maria Guardado considers it “unlikely” that Gausman will get a QO.

Why would the Giants hesitate?  While the team would like to re-sign Gausman for 2021, the Giants may simply not value him at an $18.9MM price point, and could be concerned that Gausman would accept the qualifying offer.  There are some similarities between Gausman’s situation and the decision Jake Odorizzi faced last fall, as Odorizzi had also rebounded from an off-year in 2018 but chose to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer rather than test what he felt could be an unfriendly free agent market.  Given how the pandemic has lowered revenues all over baseball this year, it is quite possible Gausman has concerns about his own trip to free agency and might prefer to lock in $18.9MM right away.

To provide some sort of an idea about how much uncertainty surrounds the offseason player market, consider the range of contract predictions George A. King III of the New York Post collected from evaluators about what Tanaka could land this winter.  Tanaka has been solid-to-excellent over his seven years in the Bronx, is still relatively young (he turns 32 in November) and the Yankees certainly need pitching, so his QO case is another that would seem pretty straight-forward in a normal winter.

As much as the Yankees value Tanaka, if they think there’s a chance he could accept a qualifying offer, they could opt to not issue one if they feel they can re-sign him for less than an $18.9MM average annual value.  Every dollar may count for the Yankees, as there has been speculation that the Yankees could look to reset their luxury tax penalties by getting payroll under the $210MM tax threshold.

Stroman presents one of the strangest cases of any qualifying offer candidate ever, since he didn’t throw a pitch in 2020.  He began the season on the injured list due to a calf muscle tear, and then chose to opt out of playing altogether (after he had amassed enough service time to qualify for free agency).  Stroman has been vocal in the past about his desire for a long-term contract, but given the circumstances, such a deal could be hard to come by.

If Stroman is still adamant about landing a multi-year deal, it’s possible the Mets could issue a QO if they are pretty certain he’ll reject it.  If Stroman is now open to accepting a one-year deal to rebuild his value, the Mets probably won’t issue a qualifying offer…or would they?  In theory, Steve Cohen’s impending purchase of the franchise means more money could be available on payroll, so the Mets could be more open than most teams to an $18.9MM expenditure on a pitcher they were counting on as a staple of their rotation.  Further complicating the matter, however, is the fact that teams only have until five days after the World Series to issue qualifying offers, and Cohen might not be officially approved as the Mets’ new owner by that time.  That could leave current GM Brodie Van Wagenen in something of a holding pattern about big-picture decisions, particularly since Sandy Alderson has been tabbed to take over as the Mets’ chief decision-maker on baseball operations, and Van Wagenen could soon be out of a job.

As noted in our position player QO forecast, the Athletics also face a tough qualifying offer decision on shortstop Marcus Semien.  It isn’t likely that the A’s would be willing to pay any player $18.9MM per season, and if they did, they would surely be more comfortable giving that money to an everyday player like Semien rather than a reliever, even an ace reliever like Hendriks.

Hendriks posted good results from 2015-18 and has been flat-out dominant over the last two seasons.  Hendriks might be apt to reject a QO to see if he can translate his track record into a nice multi-year contract, but as a relief pitcher entering his age-32 season, Hendriks might be another player wary of what the market will bear.  Baseball Reference lists Hendriks’ career earnings as just under $12.5MM, so accepting the qualifying offer would itself count as a massive payday.

Probably Not: Alex Colome (White Sox)

The White Sox don’t have the same payroll limitations as Oakland, though they are also unlikely to risk paying a closer $18.9MM.  Colome has been tremendous over his two seasons in Chicago, even if advanced metrics aren’t quite as pleased with his grounder-heavy arsenal and relative lack of strikeouts (though Colome induces a lot of soft contact).  Colome is also turning 32 this winter and the White Sox have several potential closers in waiting, so they could prefer to spend their available payroll space on more pressing needs like starting pitching or another outfield bat.

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Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

By | at October 16, 2020 10:21am CDT

The 2020 season was the third straight year in which the Royals finished in fourth of fifth place, but the club did begin to see some of the fruits of its rebuilding efforts break into the big leagues. They’ll head into the winter looking to supplement their lineup and plug some holes in the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

The Royals’ record didn’t really reflect it, but the club still had some high points in 2020. Top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, viewed as potential building blocks in the rotation, both made their big league debuts and held their own. Ups and downs were obviously to be expected given that Singer had just 16 Double-A starts under his belt and Bubic made the jump straight from Class-A Advanced, but the bottom-line results were plenty respectable. Singer tossed 64 1/3 frames with a 4.06 ERA and near-identical marks in FIP (4.08) and xFIP (4.05). Bubic was hit hard early but finished well, ultimately completing his rookie season with 50 frames and a 4.32 ERA (4.75 FIP, 4.48 xFIP).

There were positives in the bullpen, too, where minor league rolls of the dice on both Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland proved to be savvy. Moore spun Rosenthal into a prospect package headlined by an MLB-ready outfielder, Edward Olivares, while Holland anchored the bullpen and helped to ease some younger arms like Josh Staumont into higher-leverage spots. Moore has said he’ll look into re-signing both, but each right-hander should have a chance at garnering multi-year offers this winter, with Rosenthal in particular standing out as one of the most sought-after relief options on the market. Both are probably out of the Royals’ price range at this point.

The bullpen will still be a priority for Moore and his lieutenants this winter, but the primary focus could be on augmenting the lineup. Moore was candid in addressing his team’s offense following the season, proclaiming a need to improve his team’s on-base percentage and expressing a desire to upgrade at least two spots in the lineup. Whit Merrifield’s versatility will allow the Royals to explore a broad range of possibilities, but looking up and down the lineup, it’s rather clear where they could look.

Six spots in next year’s lineup appear largely set. Franchise cornerstone Salvador Perez will be back at catcher, and the Royals’ infield corners are set with Hunter Dozier at first and a revitalized Maikel Franco at third base. Adalberto Mondesi will man shortstop. Jorge Soler will serve as the DH. Merrifield can play either second or anywhere in the outfield, but recent usage seems to suggest the club prefers the latter. The Royals haven’t gotten much of a look at trade acquisitions Olivares and Franchy Cordero in the outfield, so bringing in two new outfield faces seems unlikely.

The outfield should be an easy spot to add one veteran, however, with affordable OBP-driven veterans like Brett Gardner, Matt Joyce and Robbie Grossman all likely to be available this winter. (Gardner does have a club option with the Yankees.) If Moore wants to buy low on another former top prospect, as he did with Franco, he could see whether Jurickson Profar‘s September hot streak as the Padres’ left fielder proves sustainable.

If there’s a second spot in the lineup, it seems second base is likely. Moore was quick to praise Nicky Lopez‘s glovework and overall upside, but there’s little overlooking that the former second-round pick has logged an awful .228/.279/.307 slash in just shy of 600 big league plate appearances. Said Moore in regard to his middle-infield duo (via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star):

We love the combination of Mondesi and Lopez, especially defensively. I think we all recognize that there’s a lot of range, talent, athleticism, creativity, with those two. They’re able to make plays. I think that’s really important. We also all understand from watching our team play and from knowing baseball, you’ve got to have production from those spots. You can’t have a period of time when you’re not getting production out of shortstop and second base. You can live with one or the other struggling offensively, but not both.

Moore went on to state that the Royals are “prepared to give [Lopez] more time,” although that certainly doesn’t have to be in the Majors right away. There are varying ways to read into the comments — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes sees it as a vote of confidence in Lopez for 2021 — but at the very least Moore left open the door for Lopez to return to Triple-A and iron out the kinks while a veteran provides more competitive at-bats.

The market is flush with veteran infielders and will be all the more so after the non-tender deadline. Players like Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella would give the club the short-term OBP boost it seeks while Lopez works to bring his bat up to speed. If Kolten Wong‘s 2021 option is bought out by the Cardinals, his combination of elite defense, speed and low strikeout rate is a skill set the Royals have prioritized often in recent years.

Clearly, none of the names listed are going to transform what was a light-hitting lineup into a powerhouse, but for a still-rebuilding club that ranked 26th in the Majors in OBP (.309), 25th in walk rate (7.8 percent) and 24th in total runs (248), adding some lower-cost options to boost the unit’s competitiveness is a sensible approach. Some tinkering with the bench is always possible, and a shortstop-capable infielder would prove particularly prudent if there is indeed some minor league time in Lopez’s future, as he’s also the primary backup for Mondesi at short.

The rest of the club’s lifting seems likely to be done on the pitching side of things, although as is usually the case, there’s little reason to expect the Royals will make a major splash. That’s in part due to their typically middle-to-lower tier payroll but also due to the stock of enticing arms that is bubbling up to the Majors.

Kansas City’s rebuild has been rooted in stockpiling interesting young pitching, and there’s more on the horizon beyond the aforementioned Singer and Bubic. Top prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar also figure to make their MLB debuts in 2021. The quartet of Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Kowar probably won’t all pan out as quality big league starters — such is the nature of pitching prospects — but they’ll be given every opportunity to do so. That foursome should make plenty of starts in 2020, and the Royals have veterans like Danny Duffy, Brad Keller and the somewhat less-established Jakob Junis to help rounds things out. Perhaps they’ll still bring in a recognizable name on a low-cost or even minor league deal to stash some depth in Triple-A, but 2021 should be spent prioritizing opportunities for that promising young group. Each of Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Kowar landed on at least one Top 100 list of note heading into the 2020 campaign, after all.

That leaves the bullpen as the likely area of focus on the pitching side of things. As previously alluded to, Rosenthal, Holland and shared agent Scott Boras will likely be targeting multi-year arrangements in free agency this winter. Ian Kennedy’s ill-fated five-year deal is at last off the team’s books, but his departure creates another vacancy in Mike Matheny’s bullpen.

The Royals have some interesting arms in the ‘pen, headlined by fireballing strikeout machine Josh Staumont and breakout former first-rounder Kyle Zimmer. Veteran Jesse Hahn, meanwhile, turned in perhaps the most quietly dominant season of any reliever in MLB this year: one run on four hits and eight walks with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 frames. Righty Scott Barlow posted big K/BB numbers, while rookie Tyler Zuber showed the ability to miss bats but needs to further refine his control before cementing himself in the group. Kevin McCarthy has been solid in the past, and Jake Newberry gave some cause for optimism in 2020.

While the organization has some intriguing arms in house, there’s room to add some low-cost supplements. If the Royals want to try to replicate this year’s Rosenthal/Holland jackpot, old friend Wade Davis is on the market in search of a place to rebound. A lefty could also be a sensible target for K.C., as they’re presently lacking much certainty in that regard. The relief market figures to be more volatile than ever this winter, though, with a few dozen new additions expected to join the fray by way of non-tender. That should present the Royals with ample opportunities for bargain hunting, and their lack of a defined closer could allow them to dangle save opportunities to a reliever of particular interest.

Turning away from free agency and looking to the trade market, the Royals have some options on whom they could listen — but a move isn’t as likely as fans of other clubs would expect or hope. Whit Merrifield’s name has been bandied about the rumor mill for years, but Moore has repeatedly gone on the record to quell such talk. It’s only natural to speculate on the trade of a quality player in his early 30s who has a team-friendly contract with a rebuilding club. However, the Royals operate differently in that regard than most of today’s teams. Expect to see rumblings of interest in Merrifield, of course, but an actual trade coming together feels unlikely.

Kansas City also has three players set to reach the open market next winter who’ll be points of focus over the winter. Salvador Perez likely becomes the de facto face of the franchise now that Alex Gordon has retired. With little catching help on the horizon in the farm, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Royals look to extend him next spring — revenue losses or not. There were suggestions last winter that the Royals had interest in hammering out a long-term deal with 2019 home run king Jorge Soler, though it’s not clear how or whether that lost revenue and an injury-hindered season for Soler have impacted that goal.

In the rotation, stalwart Danny Duffy is coming up on the final season of the five-year, $65MM extension he took in lieu of his first bite at the free-agent apple. He’ll turn 32 in December and is coming off a lackluster 4.95 ERA and 4.75 FIP in 56 1/3 frames, but he’s been a stable member of the staff there since moving to the rotation full-time in 2016. At $15MM next season, Duffy probably won’t command significant trade interest off a down year, and as noted in discussing Merrifield, the Royals tend to value continuity.

It’s certainly possible that the Royals will look to acquire some additional controllable options as they did when picking up Cordero and Olivares in separate deals with the Padres over the past several months. With Perez, Soler and Franco all entering their final season of club control and no set option yet at second base, there are myriad possibilities on which to speculate.

The American League Central is more competitive than at any point in recent years thanks to the emergent White Sox and continued strong showings from Minnesota and Cleveland. It’s tough to envision everything coming together for the Royals to jump right back into contention next year, but by the time 2021 rolls around they could have some major contracts off the books, a core of young rotation pieces that have all gotten their feet wet in the Majors and two more of the game’s elite prospects, infielder Bobby Witt Jr. and left-hander Asa Lacy, looming in the upper minors. A quiet offseason seems likely, but things are still beginning to look up in Kansas City.

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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021

By | at October 15, 2020 10:59pm CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years.  This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter.  To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort.  So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.  The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level.  A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything.  Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it.  Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room.  To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:

  • Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
  • Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals.  One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
  • Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (11)

  • Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
  • Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
  • Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
  • Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
  • Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
  • Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
  • Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
  • Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
  • Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM /  $1.0MM
  • Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM

Astros (3)

  • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
  • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
  • Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
  • Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
  • Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
  • Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
  • Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
  • Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
  • Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
  • Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K

Blue Jays (3)

  • A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
  • Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
  • Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM

Braves (8)

  • Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
  • Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
  • Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
  • A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
  • Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

Brewers (10)

  • Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
  • Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
  • Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
  • Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

Cardinals (6)

  • Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
  • John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
  • John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
  • Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM

Cubs (12)

  • Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
  • Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
  • Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
  • Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
  • Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
  • Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM /  $1.0MM
  • Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
  • Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM /  $7.9MM
  • Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM /  $1.1MM
  • Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (5)

  • Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
  • Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM /  $2.8MM
  • Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM /  $1.3MM
  • Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM /  $1.3MM
  • Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
  • Walker Buehler – $2.3MM /  $3.1MM / $2.3MM
  • Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM /  $900K
  • Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
  • Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM

Giants (9)

  • Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM /  $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
  • Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM

Indians (7)

  • Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
  • Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
  • Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
  • Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

Mariners (3)

  • J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
  • Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM

Marlins (9)

  • Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM /  $6.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
  • Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
  • Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
  • Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
  • Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM

Mets (13)

  • Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
  • Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
  • J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
  • Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
  • Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
  • Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
  • Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
  • Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
  • Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
  • Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K

Nationals (3)

  • Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
  • Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM

Orioles (6)

  • Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
  • Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
  • Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
  • Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
  • Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
  • Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM

Padres (8)

  • Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
  • Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
  • Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
  • Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM

Phillies (6)

  • Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
  • Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
  • Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
  • Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
  • Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM

Pirates (15)

  • Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
  • Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
  • Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
  • Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
  • Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
  • Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
  • Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Chris Stratton – $800K /  $1.2MM / $800K
  • Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
  • Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM

Rangers (4)

  • Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
  • Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
  • Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM

Rays (8)

  • Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
  • Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
  • Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
  • Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
  • Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
  • Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
  • Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM

Red Sox (7)

  • Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
  • Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
  • Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
  • Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K

Reds (9)

  • Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
  • Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
  • Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
  • Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
  • Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
  • Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
  • Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM

Rockies (13)

  • Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
  • Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
  • Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
  • Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
  • Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
  • Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
  • Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
  • Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
  • Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
  • Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM

Royals (9)

  • Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
  • Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
  • Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
  • Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
  • Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
  • Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
  • Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K

Tigers (9)

  • Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
  • Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
  • Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
  • Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
  • Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
  • Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM

Twins (7)

  • Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
  • Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
  • Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
  • Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
  • Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
  • Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM

White Sox (7)

  • Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM

Yankees (11)

  • Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
  • Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
  • Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
  • Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
  • Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
  • Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
  • Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
  • Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM
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Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Position Players

By | at October 14, 2020 12:22pm CDT

We know that this year’s qualifying offer will be worth a hefty $18.9MM, though that is one of the few points of certainty we have heading into the most unpredictable offseason in baseball history.  The revenue losses brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted every corner of the sport, and since there’s so much up in air about how the 2021 season will operate, it is widely expected that many free agents in this year’s market will feel a crunch.

Will that squeeze extend to the very top of the market?  We did see Mookie Betts and the Dodgers agree to a massive extension, so there’s evidence teams are still willing to break the bank for superstar-level talent.  Betts was rather a unique case, of course, and negotiating an extension is different than negotiating a free agent deal.  Even the old mantra of “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal” might not necessarily apply this winter, as while there are certainly some players teams would love to have back for $18.9MM, a lot of clubs might hesitate at even making that kind of potential investment on anything less than a surefire star.

From a player’s perspective, a guaranteed $18.9MM might be preferable to testing an uncertain open market.  This has been the reasoning for many free agents who chose to accept qualifying offers in the past, and that was during more normal offseasons.  It makes for a tough decision for many players, who have worked their whole careers to get a chance at free agency only to see their opportunity come in the wake of a pandemic.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently published a refresher on how the qualifying offer system works, including the key details about draft pick compensation and how the QO is a one-time application.  For the latter, this is why major free agents like Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz aren’t included in this list, as both players have been tagged with the QO in past trips through the free agent market.

This post will focus on the position players who could be plausible candidates to receive qualifying offers…

Easy Calls: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), George Springer (Astros), DJ LeMahieu (Yankees)

Along with Reds ace Trevor Bauer, these are the clear-cut stars of the 2020-21 free agent class.  All will receive qualifying offers from their respective teams, and all will reject the offers since lucrative long-term contracts surely await on the open market.

Of the players who could become free agents if their teams decline their 2021 club options, Anthony Rizzo seems like the only reasonable QO candidate, but the Cubs are almost a lock to exercise their $16.5MM option on his services.

Leaning Towards Yes: Didi Gregorius (Phillies)

There was speculation last winter that Gregorius might get issued a qualifying offer from the Yankees, but New York let him cleanly walk away into free agency and the shortstop inked a one-year, $14MM deal with Philadelphia.  Gregorius was coming off an injury-shortened 2019 season and, though he and his representatives had some multi-year offers on the table, chose the one-year deal so he could rebuild his value and quickly re-enter free agency in search of a richer multi-year contract.  The bounce-back did happen, as Gregorius hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs over 237 PA and played in all 60 of the Phillies’ game.

The only thing that makes Gregorius less than a QO lock is the question about how much the Phillies are willing or able to spend next season.  With so many roster needs to address, and the possible need to save as much money as possible to bid on Realmuto, the Phillies might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Gregorius if they think he will accept.  Going by Gregorius’ strategy last winter, however, it would seem unusual to see him take the short-term pillow contract for 2020, have his desired comeback year, and then take another one-year contract in the form of a qualifying offer.  If Gregorius only signs for one year, he would then face heavy competition next winter when so many star shortstops will hit free agency after the 2021 season.

All this to be said, Gregorius seems less likely to accept a qualifying offer, so the Phils can probably feel safe in issuing the QO and lining themselves up for draft pick compensation if Gregorius leaves.  There’s enough uncertainty here that I couldn’t make Gregorius an “easy call,” though there’s more evidence he might get a qualifying offer than the likes of…

Borderline Cases: Marcus Semien (Athletics), Michael Brantley (Astros)

For an Athletics team that has long relied on refreshing its system with young talent, it would be a tough blow to let Semien sign elsewhere and not even receive a draft pick in return.  Yet, the A’s find themselves in a difficult decision given that Semien’s production dropped off significantly in 2020.  He hit .223/.305/.374 with seven homers over 236 plate appearances, a far cry from his MVP-esque numbers in 2019.

That 2019 campaign remains the only true superstar-caliber year of Semien’s career, as he has otherwise been a steady player who provides solid pop for a shortstop and has worked hard to go from being a defensive question mark to a good defender.  If Semien had been a free agent last winter, he certainly would have been looking at a nine-figure contract.  This winter, however, there’s certainly a case to be made that he might accept a qualifying offer in the hopes of better numbers in 2021.

Even under non-pandemic circumstances, the A’s have never extended their payroll to spend $18.9MM on a single player.  Given the possibility that Semien could accept a QO, it’s tough seeing Oakland taking that risk, especially when they have a similar qualifying offer choice to make with another notable free agent in Liam Hendriks.

Brantley has continued to mash through his age-33 season (.300/.364/.476 in 187 PA) and throughout Houston’s playoff run.  This was despite battling quad problems for much of the season, and while there are questions about how much longer Brantley can hold up as a regular outfielder, he is still a very solid defensive left fielder when he plays on the grass.  There’s a lot to like about Brantley’s chances of being a future contributor, so why is he a borderline QO case?

In short, Brantley might be the kind of veteran player who gets squeezed in an offseason where every free agent dollar will be heavily scrutinized.  Teams will focus on Brantley’s age (he turns 34 in February), injury history, and lackluster hard-hit ball data as reasons to avoid paying him big money, while secretly hoping his price tag drops low enough to be signed at a bargain rate.  It’s possible the Astros could use these marks in Brantley’s “cons” column as a reason to extend a qualifying offer — if Brantley also has draft pick compensation attached to his services, it could further dampen his market and allow the Astros a better chance at re-signing him for less than $18.9MM in average annual value.  That said, if Brantley and his agents see a tough market coming, they could choose to accept the QO if Houston issues one.

The Astros also face a difficult payroll situation in 2021.  $137.75MM has already been committed to eight players, one whom (Justin Verlander) is a non-factor due to Tommy John surgery.  A big arbitration class could be trimmed by some non-tenders, but that still leaves the likes of Carlos Correa or Lance McCullers Jr. in line for significant raises.  Adding Brantley at $18.9MM might be an added expenditure the team isn’t willing to make, especially if the Astros still have designs on re-signing Springer.

Probably Not: Andrelton Simmons (Angels)

We’ll end with yet another shortstop, arguably the best defensive shortstop (or player?) of all time.  However, Simmons’ glovework actually seemed mortal in 2020 — he had a minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved and -1 Outs Above Average over 265 1/3 innings, though he was hampered by an ankle sprain that led to an injured list stint.

Simmons turned 31 in September and hit decently well (.297/.346/.356) over 127 plate appearances, though he only played in 30 games due to his IL trip and his decision to opt out of the season’s final five games.  He might be apt to accept a qualifying offer under those circumstances, and the Angels aren’t likely to extend one since they have a shortstop replacement on hand in David Fletcher, and would probably prefer to put $18.9MM towards fixing the struggling rotation.

We’ll also place Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos in the “probably not” category, as Castellanos can become a free agent if he opts out of the three years and $48MM remaining on his contract.  However, it is very doubtful Castellanos exercises that clause to become a free agent again, as he only hit .222/.298/.486 with 14 homers in 242 PA in 2020.

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Trevor Bauer: A Top Free Agent Like We’ve Never Seen Before

By | at October 13, 2020 4:52pm CDT

At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, the upcoming offseason looks as if it will feature one of the most unique free agents in the history of baseball. Reds ace Trevor Bauer is due to reach the open market off what could be a National League Cy Young-winning season, but very few people know how he will approach his trip to free agency.

The outspoken, offbeat Bauer has mentioned in the past that he would willing to take one-year contracts throughout his career, which would be an odd turn of events for someone who should have the most earning power of all upcoming free agents. Still, based on what he said, Bauer could go that route. On the other hand, Bauer stated in September that he is “not afraid of the longer deals,” meaning it’s anyone’s guess which path the 29-year-old right-hander will choose. Indeed, Bauer added to that earlier this month when he tweeted, “I will consider all offers.”

Notably, Bauer has acknowledged plenty of teams via his Twitter page since the Reds’ playoff season ended Oct. 1. He seems willing to re-up with the Reds, who now-former president of baseball operations Dick Williams said will do all they can to retain Bauer. It’s unclear whether that’s realistic for Cincinnati, which doesn’t boast a big-market budget. Otherwise, Bauer has mentioned the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Braves, Blue Jays, Angels, Orioles and Astros on his Twitter account over the past couple weeks.

It’s probably fair to rule out the Orioles, as they’re rebuilding and Bauer has made it clear winning is a top priority. The Astros are perennial contenders, meanwhile, but there’s no love lost between Bauer and the organization. Remember, Bauer has taken several jabs at the Astros over the years, even calling them “hypocrites” and “cheaters” as recently as last offseason.

Conversely, the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees – three high-spending teams – look as if they’ll be active in the Bauer race. A native of North Hollywood, Bauer has made it no secret in the past that he’d like to suit up for the Dodgers.

“I look forward to playing for the Dodgers one day. I grew up out in Valencia, so I would love to come home,” he said (via dodgerblue.com).

While Bauer may be a luxury for a Dodgers club that’s flush with pitching, a big-money, short-term deal may nonetheless be up the club’s alley. The nearby Angels and the Yankees have more acute needs in their rotations, meanwhile, as well as the spending power to reel in Bauer. In theory, the presence of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole – whom they signed for a record nine years and $324MM just an offseason ago – could negatively affect a Bauer chase. After all, Bauer and Cole have not gotten along since their days as teammates at UCLA, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today explained back in May 2018.

“They are opposites, just such complete opposites,” former UCLA assistant Rick Vanderhook told Nightengale, who noted that Bauer is the more analytical of the two.

Despite their differences, though, Bauer has recently implied he’d consider an offer from the Yankees. He even complimented Cole after he threw a gem on short rest in the Yankees’ Game 5, season-ending loss in the ALDS against the Rays last Friday.

“Anyone who is willing to come out on short rest to put his team on his back and try and win a must win playoff game has my respect,” Bauer tweeted. “Great performance tonight.”

While that doesn’t mean he and Cole are about to become best friends, it is notable as Bauer’s free agency approaches. He’s clearly leaving most or all options on the table, though it does seem contenders that would enable Bauer to pitch on four days of rest stand the greatest chance of landing him. It remains to be seen which club will wind up as the best fit in Bauer’s mind, or whether he’ll take a short- or long-term offer, but his decision could be the most fascinating of the offseason.

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The Looming Arbitration Battle

By | at October 13, 2020 3:51pm CDT

The pandemic has had a massive effect on MLB team revenues, which most expect to translate to a frigid free agent market.  More quietly, a related battle looms: salary arbitration.

The first marker will be Wednesday, December 2nd.  That’s when teams must decide whether to tender a contract to their arbitration-eligible players, often known as the non-tender deadline.  Players with at least three years of MLB service but less than six – as well as a group of Super Two players – are eligible for arbitration, which is the established system in which teams and agents use comparable players to determine salaries.  Every year, certain players meeting the criteria for arbitration eligibility are simply cut loose, or non-tendered, by teams that feel they’re not worth the salary that would come out of the system.  Last winter, non-tenders included Kevin Gausman, C.J. Cron, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Yimi Garcia, Taijuan Walker, and Kevin Pillar.

This winter those within the game expect a record number of non-tenders, as teams seek opportunities to slash payroll.  The result is that the free agent market will be flooded with players, driving salaries down for everyone.  Players, agents, and clubs expect this, creating pressure to consider “pre-tender” deals.  Pre-tenders are contracts signed prior to the December 2nd deadline, often at a discounted rate due to the threat of a non-tender.  Pre-tender deals exist somewhat outside of the arbitration grid, meaning they are not used for salary comparisons in the event of a hearing.

It’s also worth considering that players that are tendered contracts on December 2nd and will be the best and most valuable ones.  Teams generally don’t relish the idea of forcing their franchise players into hearings, so the balance of power may swing back toward the players to a degree.

Arbitration eligible players who do not sign contracts prior to December 2nd but are tendered a contract will enter uncharted waters.  That is, how should a 60-game season be treated?  The team side could argue that Cody Bellinger‘s raw numbers –  12 home runs and 30 RBI – should determine his salary.  Bellinger’s agent could choose to extrapolate: his numbers should be treated as 32 home runs and 81 RBI, which he projected to do over a full season.  Or, a simpler pitch to an arbitration panel would be the idea that “a full season is a full season,” and the exact number of games is irrelevant in the face of more prominent themes of role, health, and performance.  In an arbitration hearing, the narrative each side presents is an important element.

It’s possible a solution lies somewhere in the middle, though I’d argue not exactly at the midpoint – it’s not as if Albert Almora hitting 12 home runs in all of 2019 is comparable to Bellinger doing so in 56 games.  In our forthcoming arbitration projections, we plan to present multiple numbers, including a calculation that determines the player’s full raise and takes 37% of that, since 37% of a season was played.  For players eligible for arbitration for the first time, their entire body of work is considered.  For everyone else, there’s a philosophical divide in which teams focus on an appropriate “raise” amount while agents tend to hone in on their favored specific salary.

It could be argued that second, third, and fourth time arbitration eligible players already fell well short of earning the salaries warranted by their 2019 production.  Bellinger was slated to earn $11.5MM in 2020 in large part due to his 2019 MVP season, but instead received about $4.26MM.  Arbitration, after all, is a backward-looking system where you get paid for past production.

No one actually knows where arbitration salaries will fall on the spectrum from raw to extrapolated 2020 numbers.  Considering the philosophical differences at hand, both sides carry significant risk of getting entrenched in their positions and pushing the entire market into hearings. For players, the risk is obvious – millions of dollars.  Teams with large arbitration classes could have quite a bit of money hanging in the balance, impacting their approach toward free agency.  In a hearing, a three-person panel hears from both sides and picks a winner – they don’t meet in the middle.  There’s a good chance we’ll see a record number of hearings, so teams and agencies will be taxed in trying to prepare.  While there’s always pressure on both sides to hold the line, it’s generally easier on the team side, since there’s only 30 clubs and they can work together.  The players’ union naturally has a harder time getting agents to act as a cohesive unit.

The March agreement set forth that these arbitration salaries won’t be considered precedent.  But while salaries this year will not directly impact future classes, the deals may have a compounding effect on this particular class as they move through the arbitration system.  It’s unlikely MLB would agree to disregard 2021 salaries when considering what a player should earn in 2022, 2023, and 2024.  That calls back to my point about the philosophical divide between raises and salary.

There’s also a larger backdrop to consider: how will the 2021 season shake out?  When President Trump declared a national emergency in March, that gave MLB commissioner Rob Manfred the authority to suspend contracts in 2020, creating a scenario for a broad negotiation on the 2020 season.  It seems plausible that with gate revenue far from certain for 2021, teams would seek to do something less than a full-salary 162-game regular season. As Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal wrote in September after interviewing the commissioner, “Manfred described the idea of playing 162 games next year without fans as ‘economically devastating,’ adding that the losses ‘would be a multiple’ of the $3 billion from this season.”  It is unclear if MLB will have standing to negotiate a shorter season without a similar declaration of national emergency leading up to the 2021 season.

2020 brought months of fighting and a season like no other, and we’re set up for more of the same this offseason.

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