Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

The Twins’ Breakout Slugger

By | at

Last July, a happier time when something called Major League Baseball was actually taking place, I wrote a piece singing the praises of Twins catcher Mitch Garver. At that point, Garver was amid a breakout season in which he served as a key member of the Twins’ high-powered offense, aka the Bomba Squad – a unit that piled up an all-time record 307 home runs. Garver contributed about 10 percent of those, totaling 31 and finishing as one of five Twins who hit 30 or more.

Garver wasn’t just a one-trick pony who offered just power last year, either, as he wound up with an outstanding .273/.365/.630 line over his 359 plate appearances. Because he was part of a behind-the-plate timeshare with Jason Castro, Garver made just 93 appearances on the season. That means he hit a homer every three games; he also wound up with a .357 isolated power mark that paced all players who amassed 300-plus trips to the plate (AL MVP Mike Trout and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez were his closest competitors).

Speaking of Trout, he has a new teammate in Castro, who will be the Angels’ starting catcher in 2020 if a season ever gets underway. The Twins, meanwhile, are now poised to hand the reins to Garver, whom free-agent addition Alex Avila will back up. Judging by what he did last season, Garver has a chance to end up as the Twins’ most productive catcher since Joe Mauer’s heyday donning the tools of ignorance.

It wasn’t just a matter of Garver posting all-world bottom-line production with the bat last season. He also ranked among Statcast’s top hitters in one important category after another. To name some examples, Garver was in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (.380, compared to a real wOBA of .405). He was also remarkably consistent, evidenced by a 155 wRC+ in the first half and a 154 mark in the second. Furthermore, the right-handed slugger managed numbers that were easily above average against lefties and righties alike (198 wRC+ versus LHPs, 130 off RHPs).

It’s not easy to find a red flag when it comes to Garver’s 2019 offensive outburst. Adding to his appeal, he performed pretty well behind the plate. Sure, Garver threw out a paltry 16 percent of would-be base stealers (league average was 11 points better), but he did finish a solid 28th in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric and a slightly better 24th as a pitch framer.

All said, the Twins seem to have stumbled on a gem in Garver, who joined the organization as a ninth-round pick in 2013 and who appears to have developed into a formidable all-around contributor. The 29-year-old was quietly one of the reasons the Twins won 101 games and an American League Central title last season. If they’re going to enjoy similar success going forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garver continue to have a big hand in it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: High-Dollar Relief Signings

By | at

Since we’re left to imagine baseball for the time being, it seems natural to ask for MLBTR reader opinions on what might’ve been. We wouldn’t know much by this point had the season begun as usual, but we’d at least have a look at the health and stuff of the (relatively few) relievers that received big contracts over the offseason.

Let’s run through the $10MM+ bullpen contracts and then get to the question …

Will Smith, LHP: three years, $40MM with Braves — This one cost the Atlanta org draft compensation. And it’s the biggest reliever deal of the winter. But it’s arguably worth it for a guy that turned in a 2.76 ERA with a big 13.2 K/9 in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP: four years, $34MM with Padres — Everyone’s jaws are still on the floor here, given that Pomeranz nearly washed out with the Giants by the middle of the the ’19 campaign. His second half resurgence as a high-grade reliever was compelling — he not only carried a 1.88 ERA but struck out nearly half the batters he faced — but this was a bold strike for the Friars.

Will Harris, RHP: three years, $24MM with Nationals — He isn’t young and doesn’t have high-octane stuff, but Harris has just plain gotten the job done for quite some time. The veteran spins the ball about as well as anyone and owned a 2.36 ERA in his 297 innings with the Astros.

Chris Martin, RHP: two years, $14MM with Braves — You can save your Coldplay jokes. Martin was absolutely legit in 2019, fanning 65 batters while issuing just a handful of walks and compiling a 3.40 ERA in his 55 2/3 frames.

Daniel Hudson, RHP: two years, $11MM with Nationals — If you focus on the 2.47 ERA he compiled in 73 innings, and add in a glance at his postseason moments, this might look like a complete bargain. But Hudson’s peripherals didn’t support greater earnings than this. It could still be a nice buy if he can keep the momentum going upon his return to D.C.

Dellin Betances, RHP: one year, $10.5MM with Mets — The former star Yankees reliever decided to stay in his native New York on an interesting deal with the cross-town Mets. At his best, he’s a monster that can dominate in multi-inning appearances. But Betances is coming back from some significant injuries and hadn’t regained all his velocity in his brief MLB showing last year.

Blake Treinen, RHP: one year, $10MM with Dodgers — It’s not often a non-tendered player inks for more money than he was projected to earn in arbitration. That it happened here suggests that Treinen — who undeniably possesses thrilling stuff — drew significant interest when he hit the open market.

The question: which of these deals do you think will deliver the most excess value to the team? (Link for app users. Response order randomized.)

When A Braves Superstar Moved Across The Diamond

By | at

While going through the MLBTR archives a little while ago, I came across a June 2017 story that I had completely forgotten about. Title: “Freddie Freeman: “Mindset” Is To Move To Third Base.”

Back then, our own Jeff Todd wrote of the Braves superstar: “Freeman played the hot corner in high school, but the eight-year MLB veteran has lined up exclusively at first base as a professional. Needless to say, this apparent attempt to move back to third in the middle of the season represents quite a surprising turn of events. Freeman says he himself proposed the idea to the team, so obviously he’s on board; it remains unknown just what the organization would need to see to allow him to line up there.”

Freeman’s suggestion came in the wake of a fractured wrist, an injury that sidelined him from May 17 through July 4. The Braves reacted to that injury by acquiring first baseman Matt Adams from the Cardinals for minor league infielder Juan Yepez on May 20. Adams was at times a productive Cardinals hitter from 2012-17, but the club decided he was an unnecessary piece with Matt Carpenter holding down first base.

Initially, the Adams pickup looked like a stroke of genius by the Braves. Adams absolutely raked in their uniform through late June, and with a desire to keep his bat in the lineup, Freeman volunteered to move across the diamond. The Braves, one game under .500 (40-41) when Freeman returned at the halfway point, were willing to give it a shot.

Ultimately, Freeman to third was a short-term experiment. Freeman lasted just 16 games there before manager Brian Snitker announced on Aug. 1 that he’d go back to first on a permanent basis, thanks in part to an injury to left fielder Matt Kemp. Adams, whose bat had cooled off at that point, took Kemp’s place in left but only lasted with the Braves for the rest of the season. He signed with the Nationals after 2017 and has since had two stints with them and another with the Cardinals, but he had to settle for a minor league contract with the Mets this past offseason after a so-so 2019 in Washington.

Freeman, on the other hand, has indeed stayed at first in Atlanta since the team ended his run at the hot corner. And Freeman has remained one of the top hitters in the sport since then, thereby helping the club to back-to-back National League East titles after it spiraled to a dismal 72-90 record in 2017. He’s the owner of a .293/.379/.504 line with 227 home runs (including a career-high 38 in 2019) and 35.7 rWAR/34.6 fWAR since he broke into the majors in 2010. Now 30 years old, Freeman will continue to hold down first for at least a little bit longer in Atlanta, which signed him to an eight-year, $135MM extension prior to 2014. That pact still features another two years and $44MM.

It’s interesting to ponder how the Braves would have handled the corner infield positions during their division-winning seasons had Freeman stuck at third. For instance, would they have ever signed third baseman Josh Donaldson (now a Twin) to a $23MM guarantee prior to last season? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, Freeman’s ephemeral stint at third will go down as a fun bit of trivia in what has been a tremendous career for the four-time All-Star first baseman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ace-Off: Buehler v. Bieber

By | at

Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?

To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.

As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.

It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)

Does Baseball Have Its Next Zobrist?

By | at

You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.

In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.

While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …

The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”

Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.

Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.

The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).

Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.

The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.

McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown

While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.

While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.

Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.

So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.

McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Designated Hitters

By | at

In looking ahead to next winter’s crop of free agents, we’ve already profiled the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen and center fielders who figure to be available (barring extensions between the time the transaction freeze is lifted and the free-agent market opens).

Next year’s market is a bit unique in that it features a few more pure designated hitters than one might expect to find in a given offseason. While it’s true that any player can function as a DH and that some teams prefer not to dedicate just one slugger to that DH position, most of the players in this bucket will only be considered by American League clubs that have ample DH opportunities available. Since there aren’t many on the list, I won’t bother breaking them down into tiers…

  • Nelson Cruz: The Boomstick will turn 41 in July of 2021, but he remains one of MLB’s most potent hitters. His 2019 season in Minnesota featured a .311/.392/.639 slash with 41 big flies and 26 doubles. Cruz has played all of nine games in the outfield since the conclusion of the 2016 season and didn’t play so much as an inning of defense with the Twins last year. He and the Twins had reportedly talked about a new deal prior to the transaction freeze, so it’s possible they’ll tack on another year to his time with the “Bomba Squad.”
  • J.D. Martinez: JDM chose not to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his Red Sox deal at the beginning of this past offseason, but he has another opt out this winter. With two years and $38.75MM left on the deal, a return to the open market seems more plausible this time around — assuming some form of season is played. Martinez has hit .317/.392/.593 with 79 homers, 70 doubles and four triples in two years with Boston, where he’s made 200 appearances as DH. He’ll be 33 in 2021.
  • Edwin Encarnacion: The White Sox hold a $12MM option ($2MM buyout) on the 37-year-old slugger, so like Martinez, he might not actually reach the market. Encarnacion has belted at least 34 home runs in each season since 2012, but he hasn’t logged even a half season’s worth of innings at first base since 2014. He’ll split time with Jose Abreu between first and DH with the ChiSox, but it’s highly unlikely that any team would sign Encarnacion as a full-time first baseman heading into what would be his age-38 season.
  • Shin-Soo Choo: In fairness to Choo, he split his time between DH and the outfield corners pretty evenly last year … but the results weren’t pretty. Choo’s -17 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.1 UZR/150 and -12 Outs Above Average were among the worst marks for any outfielder in the game. He’ll turn 39 in July of 2021, and there’s little reason to expect a late renaissance with the glove. Choo is still an OBP-machine with some pop in his bat, though; last year he batted .265/.371/.455 with 24 dingers, and he even swiped 15 bases as well.
  • Hunter Pence: An NL team did sign Pence, so perhaps he’s not quite restricted to DH work, but Pence is a clear bat-first player at this point. The Rangers game him 46 starts at DH — hence Choo playing in the outfield as much as he did — and it probably would’ve been more were they not rotating the two veteran sluggers. A resurgent Pence slashed .297/.358/.552 and smacked 18 dingers in 316 plate appearances last year after reworking his swing in the Dominican Winter League. If he hits again in 2019, someone will have interest in adding that bat and that personality to the roster. He’ll turn 38 next April.

You could certainly argue others have a place on this list — someone might roll the dice on a 35-year-old Yoenis Cespedes or a 34-year-old Jay Bruce in this role — but this quintet’s 2019 production and general track record make them the likeliest DH targets for clubs seeking a short-term jolt in the lineup.

Trading An Ace In 2014 Is Still Paying Dividends For The Rays

By | at

When the Rays traded David Price to the Tigers in a three-team deal back in 2014, the deal was met with a generally negative reaction for the Tampa Bay organization. The Rays weren’t far removed from trading James Shields and Wade Davis in a deal that netted Wil Myers (at the time a top 10 prospect in all of baseball), Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. Expectations for a return on a Price trade were high in the first place, but landing such a stout package for Shields and Davis was a stunner that might have further bolstered the perception of what Price “should” command.

David Price | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

By the time the trade deadline rolled around in July 2014, the Rays were two games below .500 and eight games out of first place. Price was already earning $14MM and due another raise in what would be his final trip through arbitration the following winter. And Price, true to form at the time, had been outstanding: he’d started 23 games with the Rays and racked up 170 2/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 10.0 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. The Rays’ front office was faced with the choice of moving a year and a half of Price at the deadline or hanging on for a faint postseason hope and likely dealing just one year of him that winter. Then-GM Andrew Friedman surely knew that ownership wouldn’t be keen on committing a nearly $20MM salary to Price in 2015.

Ultimately, Price landed in Detroit in a deal that sent center fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers to the Mariners as well. The Rays came away from the swap hoping that with the two headliners on their end of the deal, they’d acquired a controllable mid-rotation lefty (Drew Smyly) and a long-term piece in the middle infield (Nick Franklin). Onlookers were skeptical.

“I’m floored that this is all the Rays got for David Price — as are some of the execs I’ve talked to so far — and I can’t imagine that the return this winter would have been any worse,” Keith Law wrote for ESPN when reviewing the trade at the time. While both Smyly and Franklin had the chance to be average regulars, Franklin in particular came with some downside. Franklin didn’t even draw a mention in Dave Cameron’s rundown of the swap at FanGraphs, which praised the Rays for grabbing a ready-made mid-rotation piece in Smyly but painted the move as a win for Detroit. Most reactions to the deal were similar. Cameron noted that the 18-year-old shortstop prospect the Tigers threw in “might have some future value,” and Law called him a “lottery ticket in the scope of the deal.”

Any concerns regarding Franklin’s future proved to have merit. The former No. 27 overall draft pick was touted as a top prospect for years, but he never panned out with the Mariners, the Rays, the Brewers or the Angels. Tampa gave him a decent leash — understandably so, given the nature of his acquisition — but after two and a half years in the organization, Franklin had compiled a lowly .227/.284/.388 slash in the big leagues. His production in Triple-A wasn’t much better outside of a solid run of 57 games in 2015. He was designated for assignment in 2015 and lost on waivers to the Brewers for no return.

Smyly’s time with the Rays proved more fruitful. He tossed 289 2/3 innings of 3.95 ERA ball and logged some encouraging strikeout numbers. At times, Smyly looked like a potential breakout candidate — I admit to thinking as much of him… just before the Rays traded him to Seattle in the 2016-17 offseason. Smyly indeed went on to star for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, but he had Tommy John surgery before that season even began and ultimately missed two seasons due to that injury.

Suddenly, the Rays were left with the lottery ticket shortstop they’d picked up for Price and the two players they’d received from the Mariners for Smyly — that’d be the trio of Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough and Mallex Smith (whom they later traded back to Seattle for Mike Zunino and now-23-year-old lefty Michael Plassmeyer, who is still in the system).

Willy Adames | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Adames, now 24, might not be an All-Star talent at shortstop, but some would argue that he still has that potential. He went from a lottery ticket to peaking at the No. 10 overall prospect in the game on Baseball America’s 2017 rankings, and he’s settled in as the Rays’ primary option at short. In 907 plate appearances to date, Adames has hit .263/.328/.414 with 30 home runs (plus a huge ALDS showing in 2019). He played quality defense in 2019 (12 Defensive Runs Saved, 4 Outs Above Average, 2.5 UZR/150) and has provided some value on the bases. The Rays are dreaming of the day when wunderkind Wander Franco overtakes him, but Adames should have value either at a different infield position or as a trade chip when that time comes. He’s controlled through the 2024 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 campaign.

The 28-year-old Yarbrough has thrown a near-identical number of innings with the Rays (289) to Smyly’s 289 2/3, and his 4.03 ERA pretty closely mirrors Smyly’s work. But Yarbrough has posted that number at a more hitter-friendly time in the game — his 106 ERA+ and 92 FIP- both top Smyly’s 100 ERA+ and 103 FIP- with Tampa Bay — and has more club control remaining than Smyly did at that point. Last year’s 3.55 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and 43.8 percent grounder rate seem to suggest that Yarbrough is capable of holding down a spot in the rotation for the next few years.

Ryan Yarbrough | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Rays were reportedly set to move away from relying so heavily on openers, deploying a more traditional staff of Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Yarbrough. Like Adames, Yarbrough is controllable through the 2024 season.

Nearly six years after trading the best pitcher in franchise history for what the club hoped would be a mid-rotation lefty and a potential shortstop who might move to another position, the Rays have… a pretty solid 28-year-old lefty and a quality young shortstop who may eventually move to another spot when their top prospect emerges in the Majors.

They took a roundabout path to this point, and the Rays should have done better in their return for Price in the first place. Price was a capital-A Ace with more than a year of team control remaining and was in the midst of a terrific year on the mound. But while the deal looked like a bust early on, the Rays are still left with some lingering pieces of value that could theoretically help carry the club past the 10-year anniversary of the day they moved Price — if they’re not traded before then.

The Angels Found A Dominant Reliever On Waivers

By | at

More than half the league passed on Hansel Robles after the Mets designated the right-hander for assignment and ran him through waivers back in 2018. Robles was sitting on an ERA north of 5.00 at the time, and he’d posted a 4.92 ERA in a full season a year prior in 2017. Few doubted Robles’ raw ability. He’d had a pair of solid years in 2015-16 and despite his 2017-18 struggles in Queens, he’d averaged close to 96 mph on his heater and posted 9.9 K/9 in his Mets career. However, Robles also averaged four walks and 1.4 homers per nine innings pitched with the Mets, and there were questions about his ability to ever take his game to the next level.

Hansel Robles | obert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, those questions look like a distant memory.

Since being claimed by the Angels, Robles has enjoyed the best run of his career. Over the life of 109 innings, he’s worked to a 2.64 ERA and 2.99 FIP with averages of 9.2 strikeouts, 2.6 walks and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. In 2019, Robles led the Angels with 23 saves.

This past season, Robles not only saw his average fastball velocity spike to 97 mph — he also changed the manner in which he used it to attack hitters. Robles’ approach in his last full season with the Mets (2017) was to bust right-handed hitters in off the plate and to work them low and away. In 2019, he stopped focusing on working righties inside and instead ramped up his usage of four-seamers off the plate away and up in the zone/above the zone. He’s far from the only pitcher to begin to shift his focus to high four-seamers, but most pitchers can’t match Robles’ combination of fastball spin rate (85th percentile) and fastball velocity (96th percentile).

The most notable difference in the 2019 version of Robles, however, was his sudden reliance on a changeup he’d never tossed at even a four percent clip before. Robles had thrown a total of 115 changeups in his career prior to 2019. He threw 262 changeups last year alone. The pitch proved to be the most effective offering in his newly expanded arsenal and greatly improved his ability to handle left-handed hitters. Opponents posted a ridiculous-looking .169/.179/.215 batting line in plate appearances that ended with the pitch, which carried a hefty 19.5 percent swinging-strike rate.

Fueled by a his newfound comfort with the changeup, Robles held hitters to a .221/.263/.332 batting line on the whole last season. That translates to a .254 weighted on-base average (wOBA) that tied him for the 38th-best mark among the 631 pitchers who faced at least 50 hitters in 2019. That excellence wasn’t just a case of BABIP smoke and mirrors, either; Robles’ .280 average on balls in play last season fell right in line with his career .278 mark. Based on those K/BB numbers and the quality of contact he allowed (or rather, the lack thereof), Statcast pegged him for an expected wOBA of .269 that closely resembles his actual mark. He ranked in the 76th percentile or better in terms of expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA as well as hard-hit rate allowed.

This isn’t the first time that Robles has had success in the Majors. In 2015-16, he tossed 131 2/3 innings with a 3.55 ERA, seemingly beginning to solidify himself as a reliable bullpen cog. But Robles has never looked this good before, either. The onus will again fall on him now to maintain the promise he’s shown — something he wasn’t able to do after that encouraging two-year run. Perhaps the league will adjust to his new-look changeup after a full year’s worth of data. Injuries are always a risk, too, and relief pitching in general is a highly volatile part of the game.

Right now, however, the Angels look to have secured themselves a flat-out steal when they scooped Robles up 22 months ago. He’s controlled through the 2021 season, giving him time to either contribute to a revamped Angels roster featuring Anthony Rendon, a healthy Shohei Ohtani and rotation newcomers Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran … or time to further build his stock as a trade chip, extension candidate or 2021-22 free agent.

Regardless of how the remainder of Robles’ Angels tenure plays out, you can bet that each of the Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Rangers, Padres, Blue Jays, Twins, Rays, Tigers, Pirates, Giants, Rockies, Athletics, Cardinals and Dodgers would each like a mulligan on passing Robles over when he hit waivers in 2018.

2020-21 Free Agent Class: Shortstops

By | at

Regardless of whether a 2020 season actually occurs, the prominent players who are currently on schedule to reach free agency after the campaign will stay on that track. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd just examined the catchers who could wind up on the open market next winter. Let’s now turn our focus to the potential shortstop group…

Top Of The Class

  • Marcus Semien (30): If we’re going by 2020 production, there’s no touching Semien in this category. He was a 7.6-fWAR player last season, after all, but had only gotten to the halfway point of that number once prior to then. So, was last year a fluke, a significant breakthrough or something in between? It’ll be interesting to see how teams evaluate Semien in the event that a season doesn’t happen.
  • Andrelton Simmons (31): Simmons is one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the game, and he added to his value with slightly above-average offense from 2017-18, but has typically failed to reach those heights at the plate. Last season was a rough one on offense for Simmons, who dealt with ankle issues throughout, though he could further position himself for a sizable payday with a bounce-back showing.
  • Didi Gregorius (31): Although Gregorius was an eminently valuable member of the Yankees between 2017-18, last season represented a major step back. Gregorius sat out the first couple months of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and then batted a disappointing .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. As a result, he didn’t quite cash in as hoped as a free agent this past winter, signing a one-year, $14MM contract with the Phillies.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Freddy Galvis (31): He’s a switch-hitter who has some pop, but if we’re to believe the wRC+ metric, Galvis has never quite approached league-average offensive production. An inability to consistently get on base has been a problem; just last season, for instance, Galvis hit .260/.296/.438 with 23 home runs in 589 trips to the plate between the Blue Jays and the Reds. That amounted to an 89 wRC+, a career-high showing but one that didn’t blow anyone away. But Galvis is extremely durable, having totaled five straight seasons ranging from 147 to 162 games, and someone who has tended to mix passable offense with plus defense. In other words, a shortstop-needy team could certainly do worse.
  • Jose Iglesias (31): Iglesias isn’t all that dissimilar from Galvis, in that he’s also an acceptable stopgap. While Iglesias has never been a force at the plate, his impressive defense has helped make him an essentially average contributor during his career. That said, whether Iglesias will reach free agency next offseason is in question. The Orioles, who signed him in January, have the ability to control Iglesias in 2021 with a $3.5MM club option (as opposed to a $500K buyout). That looks fair relative to what he brings to the table.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Eric Sogard (35): Age isn’t on Sogard’s side, but he at least possesses defensive flexibility (he played all over the infield and outfield in 2019). Of course, while Sogard hit quite well last year between the Blue Jays and Rays (.290/.353/.457 across 442 PA), offense typically hasn’t been the now-Brewer’s forte.
  • Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza saw time all over the diamond last year, though he didn’t garner a ton of action at short (152 innings). No matter, the switch-hitting Twin’s versatility and – if he hits like last season (.272/.349/.416 in 236 PA) – decent production at the plate could make him an appealing target.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (32): Count Hechavarria as another member of this list who’s known more for his defense than his offense. The light-hitting journeyman (he played for a least two teams in each season from 2017-19) lined up at short, second and third last year.

For more on the 2020-21 MLB free agent shortstop class, check out Jeff Todd’s video below.

The Rays Need More From Their Starting Catcher

By | at

We just delved into the struggles Mariners outfielder Mallex Smith endured during his first season in Seattle after a trade with Tampa Bay. He and catcher Mike Zunino were the headliners in the five-player deal when it went down in November 2018, but the latter may have been even worse last season.

Zunino, who turned 29 in March, joined the pros as the third overall pick of the Mariners in 2012. Has he lived up to that selection? It depends on the year. Zunino has totaled anywhere from 2.1 to 4.6 fWAR on three occasions since he debuted the year after the Mariners drafted him, but the lows have been rather low. He didn’t produce much in 2015 or last season. In fact, Zunino was among the least valuable hitters in the sport a year ago.

In his first season in Tampa Bay, Zunino limped to a .165/.232/.312 line in 90 games and 289 plate appearances. Out of 320 players who amassed at least 250 trips to the plate, Zunino ranked dead last in wRC+ (45) and eighth from the bottom in strikeout percentage (33.9). Strikeouts are simply part of the package when it comes to Zunino, who has fanned 34.2 percent of the time in his career, but that doesn’t mean he has always been unplayable as a hitter. Sure, with a lifetime slash of .202/.271/.395, Zunino’s not exactly Johnny Bench, but he has already piled up 104 home runs and recorded an 83 wRC+ (the latter figure’s not good, but when combined with his strong defense, it has been enough to make him a regular).

So what happened to Zunino in 2019? For one, he stopped hitting the ball hard. Just three years ago – the best season of his career – Zunino ranked in the top 10 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, average exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average on contact, according to Statcast. Zunino posted a useful .355 wOBA/.332 xwOBA that year, but he could only muster .235/.271 in those categories last season. As shown in Statcast’s data, compared to his career year, he’s chasing too many pitches outside of the strike zone and going to the opposite field quite a bit more. Considering Zunino’s only real use at the plate is to hit for power, it’s no surprise those developments have minimized his impact. He totaled just nine home runs last season and logged one of the worst ISOs of his career (.147).

If there’s any good news, it’s that Zunino remains a defensive asset. He threw out 39 percent of would-be base stealers last season (the league-average mark was 27 percent) and ranked 10th out of all backstops in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. That was enough for the Rays to stick with Zunino, whom they’ll pay $4.5MM this year. But if Zunino doesn’t take steps forward on offense in 2o2o, it could have a negative effect on the Rays’ playoff chances. While the team did win 96 games and earn a playoff berth last season, it did so with help from a solid offensive showing from fellow catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who picked up more playing time than Zunino but left for Atlanta in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top