Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Castellanos
So … it’s early. Then again, we’re also already a sixth of the way through the season (for some teams, anyway). When it comes to assessing next year’s free agent crop, teams won’t have the luxury of watching a full season of repeat testing.
That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.
All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.
What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.
On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.
You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.
That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.
This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.
The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.
But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Future Salary Obligations Of All 30 Teams
Recently, we ran through the full slate of future financial commitments teams have made to MLB players. As I explained throughout that series of posts, there are several different ways to look at salaries. Since the purpose of this exercise is to see where teams stand as we enter a period of massive uncertainty in the player market, we utilized actual cash still due beyond the 2020 campaign. That includes signing bonuses, deferred money, and money owed to since-traded players.
Every individual team’s breakout can be found at this link. Little has changed since, with one notable exception: the sizable Mookie Betts deal now resides on the Dodgers’ balance sheet. It’s reflected in the charts below. Now, we can put it all together to see how every team stacks up around the game. There’s over $7B in total future commitments tallied here. We’ll break it out in several ways (all charts in millions of dollars).
This chart shows total future MLB guaranteed contract commitments, in the aggregate.
|
Future MLB Contracts
|
|
| 2021 | $4,146.86 |
| 2022 | $3,459.90 |
| 2023 | $3,069.35 |
| 2024 | $2,730.37 |
| 2025 | $2,464.12 |
| 2026+ | $1,378.47 |
| Total | $7,134.08 |
And here we have each team’s total future commitments. These numbers would look different if we applied a discount rate, of course. Some teams with longer-fuse commitments (the Brewers and Dodgers, for example) would come out looking lighter. But there’s no single correct discount rate to apply, particularly in times as uncertain as these. So we’ll stick with a simple tally.
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | Angels | $651.00 |
| 2 | Yankees | $612.00 |
| 3 | Dodgers | $533.36 |
| 4 | Nationals | $488.68 |
| 5 | Phillies | $488.50 |
| 6 | Padres | $396.00 |
| 7 | Red Sox | $355.85 |
| 8 | Rockies | $337.50 |
| 9 | White Sox | $317.75 |
| 10 | Brewers | $299.30 |
| 11 | Reds | $290.88 |
| 12 | Astros | $254.79 |
| 13 | Cardinals | $230.75 |
| 14 | Cubs | $228.50 |
| 15 | Braves | $204.53 |
| 16 | Mets | $201.00 |
| 17 | Diamondbacks | $166.43 |
| 18 | Twins | $154.02 |
| 19 | Giants | $129.15 |
| 20 | Blue Jays | $122.07 |
| 21 | Mariners | $115.45 |
| 22 | Orioles | $106.00 |
| 23 | Tigers | $102.00 |
| 24 | Rangers | $101.50 |
| 25 | Rays | $101.17 |
| 26 | Indians | $40.65 |
| 27 | Royals | $38.75 |
| 28 | Athletics | $37.00 |
| 29 | Pirates | $15.25 |
| 30 | Marlins | $14.25 |
The most interesting way to look at the numbers is to examine all the teams’ commitments in the same chart, by year. But that’s also tough to present in a legible manner. You’ll have to click on these to see all the details.
First, the top 15 teams by total commitments (link to expand):
And now the bottom 15 teams (link to expand):
Predict The NL West Division Winner
With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, so it’s time to wrap things up with the National League West.
The Dodgers have owned this division for some time now and are perhaps more laden with star-level talent than ever with Mookie Betts on board. Then again, they may be more vulnerable than ever in a short-season format. There’s a nice assembly of talent on the Diamondbacks roster, which includes an elite young player in Ketel Marte and a sturdy slate of veterans now highlighted by intra-division transferee Madison Bumgarner. Then again, you could argue that the Padres have the greatest capacity to surprise with their own budding legend in Fernando Tatis Jr., still-youthful star Manny Machado, and a potential-laden rotation. The Rockies have an excellent core unit in their own right and perhaps have more upside than is generally recognized. And while the Giants don’t really appear primed to compete, they managed to do so last year and still have a lot of players with lofty established performance ceilings at the game’s highest level — even if it has been a few years.
Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)
Predict The 2020 NL West Winner
-
Dodgers 62% (5,001)
-
Padres 22% (1,779)
-
Giants 7% (599)
-
Rockies 5% (412)
-
D-Backs 3% (228)
Total votes: 8,019
Manny & Hoz Account For Bulk Of Padres’ Long-Term Contract Commitments
2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We have now run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. The final team is the Padres:
*Manny Machado may opt out after 2023
*Eric Hosmer may opt out after 2022
*Includes buyouts on club options over Wil Myers, Craig Stammen, and Pierce Johnson
*Includes estimated distribution of signing bonus in Drew Pomeranz contract
(click to expand/view detail list)
MadBum And The Rest Of The D-Backs’ Future Payroll Promises
2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Diamondbacks:
*Reflects deferred salary in Madison Bumgarner contract
*Includes buyouts on club options over Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Merrill Kelly, Stephen Vogt, Hector Rondon, and Junior Guerra
*Includes remaining signing bonus to be paid to Nick Ahmed
*Includes remaining salary obligation to Zack Greinke
*Does not include buyout of Mike Leake mutual option, which is owed by Mariners
(click to expand/view detail list)
The Most Stacked Lineup Of The Millennium Missed The Playoffs
With MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts sharing a lineup with thumpers like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked. That’s five players who have proved capable of posting 5-6 WAR seasons. We can even include A.J. Pollock in that group (6.8 fWAR in 2015) if we’re being generous – though it would open some eyes to see Pollack produce at that level again (even for a 60-game span). The ceiling hasn’t been set on youngsters like Will Smith and Gavin Lux, who could very well enter that elite territory with a best-case development future. There’s no denying that the Dodgers have a loaded lineup – but has there been a more MVP-loaded lineup in recent history?
The most stacked lineup of the last twenty years belongs to an 85-win, 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals team from 2003. “Most-stacked,” of course, isn’t exactly an official metric, so let me define it. Fangraphs explains fWAR in their glossary by classifying a “good player” as worth 3-4 fWAR, an “All-Star” to be worth 4-5 fWAR, and a “superstar” as worth 5-6 fWAR. But for the “most-stacked” lineup, we want the cream of the crop. Fangraphs classifies MVPs as those worth 6+ fWAR in a given season, so I went looking for the lineup with the most “MVPs”, and I found the unequivocal champ with the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.
Not only did the Cardinals carry four MVP-caliber bats that season, but they’re the only team since 2000 to accomplish that feat. There have been four other teams since 2000 with three bats in the lineup worth 6+ fWAR (2004 Orioles, 2003 Braves, 2004 Cardinals, 2011 Red Sox) – but only Tony La Russa’s Cardinals fielded a quartet of such players.
Albert Pujols (9.5 fWAR), Jim Edmonds (6.3 fWAR), Edgar Renteria (6.3 fWAR), and Scott Rolen (6.2 fWAR) each put up an “MVP-like” seasons in 2003. The 23-year-old Pujols would have been a shoo-in to snag the actual NL MVP, but that was the era of supernova Barry Bonds, who won his third of four consecutive MVPs (10.2 fWAR) that season.
The Cardinals finished 5th in the majors in runs scored with 876, second in total fWAR on offense, fourth in wRC+. J.D. Drew, Tino Martinez, and Bo Hart were productive members of the lineup, So Taguchi gave them 59 plate appearances with a 109 wRC+, and Eduardo Perez (122 wRC+) was a successful power bat off the bench. Only at catcher did they really struggle offensively, where Mike Matheny hit .252/.320/.356 to total 0.4 fWAR while starting 121 games behind the dish. In short, the offense did its part.
Unfortunately, the entirety of the Cardinals pitching staff mustered just 7.3 fWAR. They finished 19th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 26th in home runs per nine innings. The bullpen was a particular disaster, finishing the season dead last in the majors with -1.8 fWAR. The rotation boasted legitimate arms in Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and less so, Brett Tomko. Dan Haren made an okay major league debut with 14 starts and a 5.08 ERA/4.57 FIP.
That said, they could have done without the 55 starts from Garrett Stephenson, in what would be his last dash as an MLB hurler, Sterling Hitchcock in his second-to-last season, 40-year-old Jeff Fassero, and Jason Simontacchi, who was coming off a surprisingly decent rookie season at age-28.
Giving 34 percent of their starts to suboptimal contributors didn’t pave the runway for the bullpen to take flight, but the relief crew struggled all their own. In particular, the main culprits were (again) Fassero (56 games, 6.52 ERA/6.13 FIP), Dustin Hermanson (23 games, 5.46 ERA/5.49 FIP), Russ Springer (17 games, 8.31 ERA/8.97 FIP), and Esteban Yan (39 games, 6.02 ERA/5.59 FIP). It didn’t help that injuries limited closer Jason Isringhausen to 40 games and 22 saves. He would otherwise anchor the Cardinals’ bullpens of that era.
The 2003 Cardinals paint a picture of the difficulties in team-building. Four monster seasons making up half their everyday lineup, and still the Cardinals only managed to eke out a third-place finish. They underperformed their Pythagorean record, but only by three wins. The Cubs won the division with exactly 88 wins, overperforming their Pythagorean record by – you guessed it – three wins.
Things can go right – so right – in any given season, and it still might not be enough to counterbalance what goes wrong. That’s not to say that the 2020 Dodgers are in trouble – but their spot in the postseason is hardly assured. The ’03 Cardinals had the most MVP-level bats of any team in the past 20 years, and yet it was only enough for 85 wins. The margin for error will only be smaller in a short season.
Of course, here’s the other funny little part of baseball. Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Renteria couldn’t power their way to the postseason in 2003, but the foundation in St. Louis was solid. They did reach the postseason in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. La Russa’s Cardinals capped off the run with a World Series title. That season, they finished with 83 wins, one less than the “disappointment” their stacked lineup produced in 2003.
So the most-stacked lineup of the millennium missed the playoffs, and the “worst” division winner of the millennium won the World Series. If that’s not a good primer for the chaos to come in a short season, I don’t know what is.
Explaining The 2020 MLB Roster Rules
Major League Baseball is days away from a rapid-fire Summer Training, which will set the stage for a mad 60-game dash for postseason position, followed by a typically wild October … all while trying to manage the many challenges posed by the still-raging pandemic that disrupted the 2020 season in the first place. Sounds like a lot when you put it that way.
As one might expect, the typical roster rules for a MLB season would not work well in this scenario. Among other things, there’s a need for an actively engaged reserve corps of players with the minor-league season still on ice. Teams need a way to protect players who are injured or who contract COVID-19. The issue is all the more pressing in the early stages of the season.
MLBTR has learned and clarified many of the key details regarding the new roster rules. Here’s how things will work for the 2020 campaign:
- Each team can establish a maximum 60-man player pool, with the initial list due by Sunday at 3pm CST. Teams are not required to fill all sixty slots.
- No other players will be permitted to participate in camp. Teams are permitted to operate two separate camps if they so choose. All teams will operate an alternative training site once the season begins.
- Players on the 40-man roster need not be included in the 60-man player pool. Likewise, of course, pool players need not be on the 40-man roster — unless and until they are added to the active MLB roster.
- If a player is removed from a 60-man player pool, he cannot be added back to that team’s pool but can be added to another team’s pool. Players cannot be freely removed from the 60-man player pool without roster implications. Put otherwise: other than injured list placement, suspension, and some other infrequent designations, teams will be forced to surrender (or risk surrendering) control over a player (trade, release, DFA, outright, etc.) to remove him from the 60-man player pool.
- Teams may otherwise add already controlled or newly acquired players to their 60-man player pool. Players can be signed to the 60-man player pool without being added to the 40-man roster, but that requires 60-man player pool space (just like a typical minor-league deal requires space at a certain affiliate).
- The active MLB roster will consist of up to 30 players (and at least 25 players) at the start of the season. After two weeks of play, that number goes down to 28. After two more weeks, it drops again to 26, with a 27th player available for double-headers.
- Teams will travel with an unofficial 3-man taxi squad, the identity of which need not be disclosed. One player must be a catcher. There is no official designation or roster status associated with being a member of that group.
- As usual, a player must be on a 40-man roster in order to be added to the active MLB roster.
- Once a player is placed on the active roster, standard rules apply. Players eligible to be optioned can be sent back to camp just as if it were a minor-league affiliate. An optioned player must stay on optional assignment for ten days, unless called back owing to an injured list placement. Players who are not eligible to be optioned must be designated for assignment (and then traded or exposed to outright waivers) to be removed from the active roster.
- The trade deadline is August 31st. ONLY players in the 60-man player pool may be traded. Any player that is traded must go into an acquiring team’s player pool. (As a practical matter, it seems there’s nothing to stop teams from adding prospects to the 60-man player pool specifically in order to trade them. The acquiring team would need to be capable of carrying such players in their own 60-man player pool while still fielding a 26-man active roster of capable big leaguers.)
Dodgers Have Diversified Slate Of Future Commitments
2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Dodgers:
*Includes buyouts on club options over Joe Kelly, Max Muncy
*Reflects remaining portion of David Price salary owed by Red Sox
*Includes 2023 player option of A.J. Pollock (due $5MM buyout if he declines)
(click to expand/view detail list)
Universal DH Will Be Implemented For 2020
After months of return-to-play discussions, a shortened 2020 season looks to be upon us — and with it comes the long-anticipated and highly divisive implementation of the universal designated hitter. National League fans and baseball traditionalists recoil at the idea, but both polls we’ve conducted on the universal DH have shown that fans are pretty evenly split on the notion. In our poll earlier this spring, some were open to the idea for 2020 alone if that was one of the health/safety conditions necessary to bring about a 2020 season of some form.
That proved to be the case. And while there was talk about implementing the DH in 2021 as well, that was only on the table in the jointly negotiated season proposals between MLB and the MLBPA. The 2021 universal DH went out the window when no agreement was reached and commissioner Rob Manfred implemented a 60-game season. The two sides could — and very likely will — revisit a 2021 implementation this winter. Most expect that the DH will be here to stay, although for the time being, it’s still a temporary quirk to the upcoming campaign.
The expected lifting of the transaction freeze on Friday could lead some clubs to add a new bat to this mix — Yasiel Puig remains unsigned, and trades will again be allowed — but here’s a high-level look at each club’s options (with links to more in-depth explorations)…
NL West
- Dodgers: As explored earlier this spring, the Dodgers have a ridiculous amount of depth that should allow them to play matchups and keep their players fresh. With Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger in the outfield, one of Joc Pederson or A.J. Pollock was likely to be on the bench on a given day. Others like Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez or youngsters Edwin Rios and Matt Beaty could get DH looks at times, too.
- Diamondbacks: The D-backs have a number of options, including veteran Jake Lamb, but 2019 minor league home run king Kevin Cron might be a more intriguing option, as profiled here a couple months back.
- Padres: Outfield has been a carousel in San Diego for awhile, and trades might’ve brought some more stability to the mix but they pushed some outfield options to a more likely DH role. As Jeff Todd examined recently, Wil Myers, Josh Naylor and Franchy Cordero are among the many options.
- Giants: That late pickup of Hunter Pence looks all the more valuable now, and the Giants have plenty of other options both young and old to rotate through the spot. Plus, they’re reported to be interested in Yasiel Puig, which could impact the mix.
- Rockies: Perhaps the DH could be a means of both keeping Daniel Murphy healthier and removing his glove from the regular defensive alignment. That’d help to finally get Ryan McMahon some more regular at-bats. Ian Desmond seems likely to get some reps as well.
NL Central
- Cardinals: The Cards already had plenty of inexperienced players vying for limited at-bats (Tyler O’Neill, Rangel Ravelo, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson), and the DH helps to create an easier path. Veterans like Brad Miller and Matt Carpenter could factor, too.
- Cubs: Kyle Schwarber has long been mentioned in DH talks. Defensive metrics are all over the map on his performance in left, but it seems likely he’ll get some looks there in 2020. Steven Souza Jr. could see some time there as he eases back into action after a grisly knee injury.
- Brewers: There’s a crowded outfield scene in Milwaukee, particularly after adding Avisail Garcia, which could mean that Ryan Braun will have the opportunity to stay fresher at DH. The Crew also added Justin Smoak, Jedd Gyorko and Ryon Healy this winter. There are options.
- Reds: With a deep outfield mix featuring Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati isn’t short on options. As Jeff Todd wrote back in May, if the Reds are willing to use Senzel in a super-utility role (still playing near every day), their flexibility would be enviable.
- Pirates: I wrote last month that the Buccos’ options at DH are pretty limited. A rebuilding, small-market club that didn’t spend money this winter after a last-place finish doesn’t have much to offer. But the short season could be used to get top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes an audition at third base, pushing current corner infielders Colin Moran and Josh Bell to DH more often.
NL East
- Nationals: The Nats have a deep roster themselves and plenty of options. MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored the roster’s composition and how it’s well-stocked with DH options — likely led by playoff hero Howie Kendrick.
- Braves: Atlanta has a blend of veteran options (Nick Markakis, Adam Duvall) and younger players (Austin Riley) who could cycle through the DH spot. It may not be the absolute best unit in the league, but the pieces are there for a solid group.
- Phillies: Between the versatility that Scott Kingery brings on the defensive side of things and the looming presence of top prospect Alec Bohm, the Phillies should be able mix-and-match their way to a largely productive group. Kingery allows them to rest virtually anyone on a daily basis — and they could particularly lean into that on days when Bohm plays third base. Bohm could also see time at first and push Rhys Hoskins to DH occasionally.
- Mets: A pair of aging veterans (Robinson Cano, wild card Yoenis Cespedes) and a blocked former top prospect (Dominic Smith) might all benefit from the addition of a DH spot to the lineup over in Queens.
- Marlins: Matt Kemp‘s ugly 2019 season makes it easy to forget that he was a very strong hitter as recently as 2019. Connor Byrne profiled Kemp and several other options in exploring the Marlins’ DH picture earlier this spring.
Looking At The Rockies’ Post-2020 Payroll
2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Rockies:
*Nolan Arenado may opt out after 2021
*Includes Charlie Blackmon 2022 & 2023 player options
*Includes buyouts on club options over German Marquez, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw
*Includes buyout on mutual option in Wade Davis contract
(click to expand/view detail list)
