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Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley

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Matt Brash’s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness.  Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old.  If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.

Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact.  On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates.  There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player.  Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo.  Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece.  Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances.  It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.

Mets Hoping To Re-Sign Adam Ottavino

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As the Mets look to rebuild their bullpen, the team is hoping to bring back veteran Adam Ottavino, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma adds that Ottavino is thought to be seeking a multi-year deal, while the Mets are looking to keep it to a one-year guarantee.

Ottavino, 37, was a terrific setup man in Queens last year, tossing 65 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA relief work. He halved his walk rate from a year earlier in Boston, dropping from 12.7% to post a 6.2% rate in 2023 while still maintaining a strong 30.6% strikeout rate. He also posted a 51.9% ground-ball rate, his best figure since 2016.

It was a bounce back year for the Brooklyn-native, who’d struggled in his previous two campaigns. Signed to a three-year, $27MM deal by the Yankees in 2019 after a number years of quality relief work in Colorado, Ottavino was dominant in his first season in the Bronx, pitching to a 1.90 ERA in 66 1/3 innings. He took a major step back a year later, winding up with a 5.89 ERA in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. That prompted the Yankees to flip him to the rival Red Sox, and while there was some improvement, his 4.21 ERA in 62 innings was still well short of his best.

That allowed the Mets to sign him to a modest $4MM guarantee for 2022, and he’ll surely be seeking a significant raise on that figure this winter. As Puma notes, the Mets believe Ottavino enjoys pitching in his hometown, but it’s unclear if that’d be enough for him to forgo a possible multi-year deal elsewhere if the Mets are only willing to offer him a one-year deal.

The Mets are rebuilding their bullpen after the departures of Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Joely Rodriguez to free agency. They’ve already re-signed Edwin Diaz to record-breaking contract, while they’ve claimed Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and acquired Jeff Brigham and Elieser Hernandez from the Marlins. There’s still work to do though, particularly in the high-leverage spots so the Mets have plenty of motivation to try and bring back Ottavino.

Just about any contending club could do with a bullpen arm like Ottavino, so the veteran should have plenty of interest. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $14MM guarantee, and the likes of the Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Giants and Blue Jays could have interest among many others.

Mets Sign Denyi Reyes To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced that they have signed two pitchers to minor league deals: right-hander Denyi Reyes and left-hander Zach Muckenhirn. Each will be invited to major league Spring Training.

Reyes, 26, is the only one of the two with major league experience. He cracked the big leagues with the Orioles last year, tossing 7 2/3 innings with a 2.35 ERA. Over his 54 Triple-A innings last year, however, he posted a 7.17 ERA but surely deserved better. His 22% strikeout rate was close to average and his 3.3% walk rate was excellent. A .361 BABIP and 57.8% strand rate helped to make his results worse than perhaps they should have been. He was outrighted in September and elected free agency at the end of the season.

Muckenhirn, 28 in February, has yet to reach the big leagues. Drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round in 2016, he stuck with that organization until he was released in April of 2021 and signed a minors deal with the White Sox. He spent all of 2022 at Triple-A, throwing 55 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.

The Mets have a lot of work to do this winter in re-building their pitching staff. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker have departed the rotation for free agency while Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Mychal Givens have left the bullpen. Those players are all still free agents except for Rodriguez, who signed with the Red Sox earlier today. The club has already made a couple of moves to compensate, re-signing Edwin Díaz, claiming William Woods and Stephen Ridings off waivers, and trading for Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham. Today’s signings of Reyes and Muckenhirn add to the club’s bullpen depth.

MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency

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Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.

Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.

That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.

Mets Interested In Jameson Taillon

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The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search.  Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

The right-hander is no stranger to the Big Apple, having spent the last two seasons with the Yankees.  Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded to post a 4.08 ERA over 321 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign.  Taillon has a below-average strikeout rate and he returned from that TJ recovery with below-average fastball velocity, but he has excellent spin rates and strong control.  Taillon’s 4.4% walk rate ranked in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in 2022.

Perhaps most importantly, Taillon has been healthy over the last two seasons, apart from a three-week IL stint with an ankle injury in September 2021.  Taillon has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and battled testicular cancer, so the Yankees certainly assumed some risk when they acquired Taillon in a deal with the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason.  Fortunately, Taillon has avoided any further major heath problems, and now (if anything) looks like something of a reliable veteran innings-eater that could fit into any team’s rotation.

The Yankees opted against issuing a qualifying offer to Taillon, so he was able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to his services.  MLBTR projected Taillon for a four-year, $56MM contract, but with the caveat that the righty’s Tommy John history could make it difficult for him to land that fourth guaranteed year.

Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, leaving the Mets with some major holes to fill in the rotation.  Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco will certainly fill two of the five spots, and David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and recent trade acquisition Elieser Hernandez could end up all battling for one available spot, or possibly all be depth options depending on how many pitchers are added or re-signed.  As one might expect, the Mets have been aggressive in exploring the market, checking in on the top names (deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga), more second-tier starters like Taillon or Andrew Heaney, and back-of-the-rotation depth like Hernandez.

Mets Considering Justin Verlander

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TODAY: Verlander and the Mets spoke together in a Zoom meeting last week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 19: The Mets are hopeful of re-signing Jacob deGrom, but if they fail in that pursuit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has emerged as a “prominent possibility” for the team, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma cites a source that confirms the Mets are indeed considering the former Astros ace.

deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York of course, and the Mets already believe they are his preferred team, but it certainly shows the Mets’ intention to again be active at the top of the starting pitching market, be that deGrom or not.

Verlander, 39, showed no signs of age in 2022, making one of the more remarkable returns from Tommy John surgery to toss 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball for Houston, win the Cy Young award and take home a World Series ring.  Though his strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since joining Houston (down to 27.85), his fastball velocity remained in tact (and actually improved on his last full season), and he accounted for the dip in strikeouts by posting the equal-best walk rate of his lengthy career (4.4%).

It’s a stunning turnaround for a pitcher that threw just six innings between 2020-21, and sets himself up nicely to add to his already illustrious career. He’s already got three Cy Young awards, one MVP, two World Series titles and is now 56 wins away from the 300-win milestone. That last one may seem like a stretch, but Verlander has averaged 18.33 wins a season over his last three full seasons, so it’s certainly not out of the question if he bags a three-year deal. It’s likely Verlander will seek deals from teams that give him the best chance to win, and a return to the Astros remains a strong possibility, while teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies could join the Mets in the race for his signature.

It speaks to the quality of Verlander’s output even as he’s aged that MLBTR recently predicted he’d take home a three-year, $120MM deal, even though he’ll turn 40 in February. While the performance remains elite, the thought of paying a pitcher $40MM into his age-42 season must give some owner’s pause though. Instead, perhaps the Mets might bump up Verlander’s AAV beyond the $43.3MM record that Max Scherzer takes home, and keep it to a more manageable two-year deal.

In any event, it shows the Mets are set to be aggressive in adding a frontline starter to partner Scherzer in 2023. Of course, deGrom and Verlander aren’t the only options either, and the Mets could be in on Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga as well to bolster their light rotation stocks. Currently Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start 2023, while David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also have roles at the back of the rotation, depending on how New York’s off-season unfolds.

Mets Believe Jacob deGrom Wants To Stay

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Jacob deGrom is expected to have many suitors this winter, but according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the veteran right-hander prefers to stay in Queens. While any deal would require a significant investment, Puma writes that provided there’s not a major discrepancy between offers, deGrom would rather re-sign in New York.

deGrom opted out of his contract at the end of the season, and his free agency will be a fascinating one. The 34-year-old is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game and deserves to be paid accordingly, but his age and injury history will make teams leery of a long term commitment. According to Puma, the Mets are steering clear of a four or five year commitment, instead preferring to give deGrom a shorter contract that could include option years based on the pitcher meeting certain incentives.

The long term concerns over deGrom are justified, he didn’t pitch at all between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022 due to multiple injury problems. Upon returning, he was his usual dominant self, striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters against a 3.4% walk rate on the way to a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts. In fact, whenever healthy he’s been an unbelievably dominant pitcher, pitching to a career 2.59 ERA over 209 starts.

It’s a huge risk/reward free agency given the enormous AAV deGrom will command, but a host of big-market contending clubs will be interested. Puma notes that deGrom places a high value on winning, and believes the Mets are in a position to contend for World Series titles regularly, aiding their case. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $135MM deal for deGrom, which would give him a record AAV of $45MM, just eclipsing the $43.33MM AAV Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.

That sort of commitment would take the Mets’ payroll close to the estimated $282MM mark from this season (per RosterResource), and with other holes in their rotation and bullpen particularly it seems likely their payroll will push closer to $300MM in 2023. The Mets currently have Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill pencilled in as rotation options, so they’ll almost certainly be in the market for multiple starters this winter, even after a possible deGrom signing.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.

Later Updates

  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Earlier Moves

  • The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
  • The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
  • The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
  • The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
  • The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
  • The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
  • The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
  • The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Mets Expected To Non-Tender Dominic Smith

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The Mets are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith prior to tonight’s deadline, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The news is not shocking now though it would have been two years ago. Smith was a first round draft pick, selected 11th overall by the Mets in 2013. He was one Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects in the league in 2014, 2016 and 2017. In 2019 and 2020, he delivered on that hype by hitting .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 over 139 games. The only problem was that Pete Alonso burst onto the scene at the same time, taking over Smith’s natural first base position. That forced Smith into left field, a position that he wasn’t well-suited to play. His poor work out there on the grass took some of the value away from his strong performance at the plate.

The situation got even worse over the past couple of seasons, as Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder in 2021 and hit just .244/.304/.363 for a wRC+ of 86. He struggled out of the gates in 2022 while jockeying with J.D. Davis for a role and got optioned to the minors, openly admitting that he felt he would benefit from more playing time. He finished the year with a batting line of .194/.276/.384 in the majors for a 67 wRC+, but a .284/.367/.472 in the minors for a 122 wRC+.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Smith for an arbitration salary of $4MM but it seems the Mets aren’t willing to pay that kind of money for him. If it indeed comes to pass that he is non-tendered, he will make for an intriguing addition to the first base free agent market. It seems like his bat might still be in there and a team willing to give him regular playing time could benefit, especially if they can put him back at his natural home of first base. He has between four and five years of MLB service time, meaning he could be retained for 2024 via arbitration if he has a successful season somewhere in 2023. Once a free agent, he would be competing for jobs with the likes of Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel.

Mets Claim William Woods

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The Mets have claimed right-hander William Woods off waivers from the Braves, per announcements from both clubs. Atlanta had designated Woods for assignment earlier in the week.

Woods, 23, tossed a pair of scoreless innings in his big league debut this season but was torched for a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings across three minor league levels as well. The former 23rd-rounder also gave up a dozen runs in 12 2/3 innings during this year’s Arizona Fall League.

Forearm and ankle injuries have limited Woods’ time on the mound across the past two seasons, and he was of course unable to pitch competitively in 2020 thanks to the canceled minor league season. His 2019 campaign showed a good bit of promise, as he tossed 51 innings of 3.35 ERA ball with a 26.6% strikeout rate in Class-A, though Woods also walked 13.3% of the hitters he faced that season.

Baseball America ranked Woods 21st and 25th in the Braves’ system over the past two seasons, noting that in single-inning stints his fastball can reach 100 mph. That pitch is complemented by a slider and changeup that, at times, look like potential above-average offerings.

Woods is the latest in a growing line of arms the Mets are stockpiling as they look to cultivate some depth in the upper minors. In addition to Woods, the Mets have claimed righty Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and acquired right-handers Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham in a trade with the Marlins — all in the course of the past 72 hours. All four of those pitchers have minor league options remaining, which is surely key for the Mets.

It’s unlikely that any of that newly acquired quartet is viewed as a lock to make next year’s Opening Day roster, but Hernandez provides some depth at a time when Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are all free agents. Meanwhile, the trio of Ridings, Brigham and now Woods create some optionable bullpen depth to a Mets club that has re-signed Edwin Diaz but has also seen each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Mychal Givens reach the open market.

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