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The Opener: All-Star Game, Draft Day 3, MLBTR Chat

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On the heels of last night’s Home Run Derby, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2023 All-Star Game:

The 93rd MLB All-Star Game is set to take place in Seattle tonight. Phillies manager Rob Thomson will manage the NL squad against Astros manager Dusty Baker in the AL. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the AL against Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen at 7pm CT this evening. The American League will be looking to defend their nine-season winning streak in the Midsummer Classic in tonight’s game, though they’ll do so without fan-elected starters Aaron Judge and Mike Trout, who have been replaced by Adolis Garcia and Austin Hays in the starting lineup.

2. MLB Draft Day 3:

Yesterday saw all 30 organizations select a variety of potential future big leaguers in Rounds 3-10 of the MLB draft. The draft will conclude today with Rounds 11-20 starting at 1pm CT. At this point in the draft, most top-tier talents are prep players expected to honor their commitments to play collegiate ball. To have a realistic shot of signing any of them, a club would have to have saved up a considerable portion of their bonus pool from the first two days. Players like shortstop Roch Cholowsky (committed to UCLA), right-hander Joey Volchko (a Stanford commit) and southpaw Cameron Johnson (an LSU recruit) are all widely considered to be among the best 50 to 100 talents in this year’s overall draft class but could be tough signs at this point.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With MLB’s All-Star festivities fully underway and the 2023 draft reaching its final stage, the attention of MLB clubs will soon turn to the coming trade deadline on August 1. If you have any questions about your favorite team’s direction in the coming weeks or a trade idea you have in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

Pirates Outright Rob Zastryzny

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The Pirates have sent reliever Rob Zastryzny through outright waivers, per the transaction tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment on Friday and apparently went unclaimed.

Zastryzny signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh over the offseason and broke camp with the MLB team. The 31-year-old southpaw made 18 appearances around a pair of injured list stints. He allowed 13 runs (10 earned) across 17 innings, striking out and walking 13 batters apiece. Those aren’t great bottom line results, although Zastryzny did average a personal-best 92.9 MPH on his fastball.

This is the second straight year and fifth overall in which the former second-round draftee got to the MLB level. He’s logged 55 2/3 career innings of 4.85 ERA ball, striking out a below-average 18.6% of batters faced. The Missouri product has allowed just under five earned runs per nine over 366 2/3 career Triple-A frames.

Zastryzny was previously outrighted by the Cubs five seasons ago. Players with multiple career outrights can decline the assignment in favor of minor league free agency. The Bucs haven’t announced whether Zastryzny plans to do so.

The Orioles’ All-Star Relief Duo

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The Midsummer Classic is a little less than 24 hours away. In the American League bullpen will be a pair of Orioles teammates to potentially make their respective first All-Star appearances. While neither player entered the Baltimore organization with much fanfare, their emergence as an elite late-game duo has helped the O’s to a 54-35 record that has them just two games behind the AL-leading Rays.

Félix Bautista first entered the professional ranks as an international signee of the Marlins. He spent two and a half years in the Miami system, didn’t advance past rookie ball, and was released. The Orioles signed him midway through the 2016 campaign. Bautista remained in the low minors for a while, not even reaching Low-A until his age-24 season in 2019.

Given that background, it’s not surprising he never appeared on an organizational top 30 prospects list at Baseball America. He’d go unselected in the Rule 5 draft on a couple occasions before securing a spot on the O’s 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason.

As a 27-year-old rookie, he somewhat surprisingly broke camp last year despite walking over 15% of minor league opponents the preceding season. Bautista rewarded the organization’s faith by immediately dominating MLB hitters. He worked to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out a little under 35% of opponents. By year’s end, he’d ascended to a ninth-inning role vacated by a midseason trade we’ll revisit later.

Bautista entered 2023 assured of a high-leverage spot in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen if healthy. The latter caveat was no sure thing in exhibition play. Bautista was hampered early in camp by knee and shoulder issues. Fortunately for the Orioles, he was not only ready to go by Opening Day, he’d taken his game to another level.

The towering 6’8″ hurler was MLB’s best reliever in the first half. He’s thrown 42 innings with a 1.07 ERA, locking down 23 of 28 save opportunities. Bautista has incredibly punched out 84 of the 165 hitters who’ve stepped in against him. His 50.9% strikeout rate leads the majors by a wide margin. The 7.7 point gap between Bautista’s figure and Aroldis Chapman’s 43.2% second-place mark exceeds the difference between Chapman and Trevor Richards in 11th place (minimum 20 relief innings).

Among that same group, only Robert Stephenson is getting swinging strikes more frequently than Bautista, who has gotten whiffs on 20.9% of his offerings. Jhoan Durán, Chapman and Jordan Hicks are the three pitchers averaging better than the even 100 MPH on Bautista’s four-seam. There’s an argument Bautista is the best reliever in the game and he’s on his way to getting some down-ballot Cy Young support this fall.

Yennier Cano isn’t likely to appear on any Cy Young ballots, but he could find some Rookie of the Year support. His emergence might be even more unexpected than Bautista’s. Cano didn’t get to the big leagues until after his 28th birthday. The Twins signed the right-hander out of Cuba a few seasons back and selected him onto the MLB roster last May. He made 10 appearances in a depth role for Minnesota, allowing more than an earned run per inning.

At last summer’s deadline, the O’s and Twins lined up on an aforementioned trade. Baltimore dealt then-closer Jorge López to Minnesota for a four-player package. Cano was the only one of the group with any big league experience but arguably perceived as the fourth player in the return. He spent most of the late-summer at Triple-A Norfolk, only pitching three times for Baltimore at the MLB level.

Cano opened this season back in Norfolk. The O’s recalled him in the middle of April. The 6’4″ righty never gave Baltimore an opportunity to send him back down. Cano has posted a 1.48 ERA over 42 2/3 innings. He quickly jumped up the depth chart and has already picked up four saves and 19 holds.

Unlike Bautista, Cano isn’t racking up whiffs. His 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are around average for a reliever. He has excelled by limiting contact quality, keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 64.3% clip. He owns the fifth-highest grounder rate among relievers with 20+ frames.

Cano had always shown a knack for keeping on the ball on the ground throughout his minor league tenure. He’d been prone to bouts of wildness throughout that time, though, routinely walking opponents at a double-digit percent clip. His strike-throwing has been exceptional this season, as he’s handed out free passes to less than 4% of batters faced. Whether he can keep pounding the zone at this rate remains to be seen, but the grounders should make him a quality high-leverage arm even if his walks were to move closer to league average.

The Bautista-Cano pairing has become one of the game’s most effective relief duos. The Orioles probably didn’t anticipate this kind of dominance from either pitcher, but their respective acquisitions — Bautista as a minor league signee, Cano as a small part of a bigger trade — are strong credits to their scouting staffs. They’ll be in the national spotlight tomorrow in Seattle, and they’re doing their part to get Baltimore back to the postseason after a long rebuild.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Reds Outright Henry Ramos, Ricky Karcher

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The Reds announced that both outfielder Henry Ramos and right-hander Ricky Karcher cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A Louisville. Both players had been designated for assignment in the past week.

Ramos, 31, has had tremendous results at the plate in Triple-A but hasn’t yet put it together in the big leagues. He’s hit .299/.356/.481 in 400 games at the top minor league level but .223/.313/.304 in 36 major league contests. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason and got called up in late April. He hit .242/.356/.306 in 18 games before landing on the injured list due to a hip strain in late May. When he was ready to return, he was optioned to the minors before his recent DFA.

The outfielder had the right to reject this assignment by virtue of the fact that he has a previous career outright. It’s not explicit whether he’s chosen to waive that right or not, though he’s listed as active on the Louisville Bats roster, perhaps indicating he has decided to stick in the organization instead of heading back to the open market.

Karcher, 25, was just added to the 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He got that roster spot on the heels of a strong 2022 season wherein he tossed 56 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.65 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and 15.9% walk rate. That control was not ideal but the strikeout stuff was intriguing enough for the Reds to not want him to get away.

2023 has been a different story, however, despite Karcher making his MLB debut with a scoreless inning. He’s spent most of the season in Triple-A with a 7.18 ERA in 31 1/3 innings at that level. His 21.7% strikeout rate is far lower than last year’s and his command issues have gotten much worse, with his walk rate spiking all the way to 26.5%. Based on those results, he lost his roster spot with the Reds and couldn’t get one with any of the other clubs either.

This is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, which means he does not have the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency. He’ll stick in the organization and provide some non-roster depth while trying to better harness his stuff.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Yankees Name Sean Casey Hitting Coach

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4:25pm: The Yankees have officially announced Casey’s hiring.

11:37am: Heyman tweets that Casey has agreed to take on the role for the remainder of the 2023 season. Presumably, these next few months will serve as a trial run for a potentially longer stint in the position, but the short-term nature of Casey’s agreement also creates the possibility that there will be another search conducted in the offseason.

11:33am: The Yankees dismissed hitting coach Dillon Lawson over the weekend, and they’ve wasted little time in zeroing in on a replacement. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that they’ll hire former All-Star first baseman and current MLB Network personality Sean Casey as Lawson’s successor. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that Casey was under “strong” consideration for the position (Twitter links).

Casey, 49, is something of an outside-the-box hire, as he’s never worked as a coach at the minor league or major league level since ending his 12-year playing career in 2008. The three-time All-Star has been working as a broadcaster and analyst on the MLB Network for the past several years. In that sense, there are some parallels between his hiring and that of manager Aaron Boone — another former player who went straight from broadcasting back into a big league dugout. Boone and Casey were teammates with the Reds from 1998 through 2003, when Boone was traded to the Yankees. That familiarity surely plays a role in the decision to consider and ultimately hire Casey despite his lack of experience coaching.

While Casey is new to coaching, he certainly knows a thing or two about hitting. The former second-round pick retired as a .302/.367/.447 hitter and had just a 10.2% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 5644 big league plate appearances. Casey made the NL All-Star team in 1999, 2001 and 2004, and he finished out his career with 130 home runs, 322 doubles and 12 triples.

Casey’s background couldn’t be much different from that of his predecessor. Lawson didn’t play baseball professionally, going directly from college ball to the college coaching ranks and eventually coaching in the Royals’ system before being hired away by the Yankees. After a couple years as the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator, Lawson was elevated to the major league hitting coach position following the ’21 campaign, though his time in that spot ultimately lasted just one and a half seasons.

In addition to his dozen years playing at the big league level, Casey has spent considerable time interacting with and building a rapport with current players through his work on MLB Network. “The Mayor” is known for a gregarious and jovial personality. At the very least, one can imagine he’ll have little trouble connecting with the Yankees’ players and fitting in from a clubhouse perspective. The rest of the season will be used to determine both his coaching acumen, his appetite for returning to the dugout on a long-term basis, and whether Yankees decision-makers feel he’s equipped to handle the position in 2024 and beyond.

Marlins Reinstate Johnny Cueto, Transfer Jonathan Davis To 60-Day IL

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The Marlins made a few roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Johnny Cueto was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with righty Sean Reynolds optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To open a spot for Cueto on the 40-man roster, outfielder Jonathan Davis was transferred to the 60-day IL. Cueto will not rejoin the rotation initially, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The Marlins signed Cueto, 37, in the offseason to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, which came in the form of a $6MM salary this year and a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM club option for 2024. That deal came on the heels of a strong 2022 campaign wherein Cueto tossed 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA. The move initially seeded somewhat curious since the Fish already had a stacked rotation, but it was just over a week later that they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospect to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez.

Cueto opened the season in the club’s rotation alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. However, he left his first start after recording just three outs due to right biceps tightness. He started a rehab assignment in early May, though that was shut down after just one appearance. Rehab assignments come with a 30-day maximum for pitchers, though they are sometimes halted due to renewed soreness or a new injury. He started a second assignment June 11 and the 30 days of that are now up, which prompted today’s moves.

However, it seems Cueto won’t be returned to the rotation, as mentioned above. In the 26 2/3 innings he’s thrown on his most recent rehab assignment, he allowed 27 earned runs, leading to a 9.11 ERA. He struck out just 11.1% of batters faced in that time. Reading the stat line on rehab assignments can be misleading, as pitchers might be more focused on mechanics and velocity as opposed to results. But it’s telling that the Marlins evidently aren’t willing to slot him back into the rotation.

Since Cueto’s been gone, there have been a few changes in the club’s starting mix. Cabrera and Rogers are each on the injured list as well, though Cabrera was recently sent out on a rehab assignment and could be an option shortly after the All-Star break. With those injuries, the club has given opportunities to pitchers like Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Garrett has a 3.70 ERA while Hoeing is at 4.54.

Another wild card in this deck is Eury Pérez. The 20-year-old rookie came into the year as one of the top prospects in the league and has delivered on that hype as the Marlins were dealing with those injuries. He posted a 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts but the club recently optioned him to the minors on account of workload concerns. Since he’s already set a personal high for innings pitched in a season, they want to tap the brakes a bit and save some gas for later in the year and perhaps the postseason.

With Rogers on the shelf and Pérez on ice, it seems the club will proceed with a rotation core of Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett and Hoeing for now, with Cabrera perhaps joining them just over the horizon, leaving Cueto in the bullpen for the time being. He could perhaps rejoin the rotation down the line if another injury pops up, though it will perhaps depend on the timing with the return of Pérez presumably coming at some point.

As for Davis, it’s not a shock to see him wind up on the 60-day IL. He recently required meniscus surgery and is expected to miss the next three to six months. This move means he will be ineligible to return until early September, which wasn’t in the cards anyway.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

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