Aaron Judge Meets With Giants
November 23: Jon Morosi of MLB Network says that the meeting went well and that the Giants are expected to make an offer to Judge soon.
November 21: The Giants are planning to sit down with the market’s top free agent this week, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets they’re expected to meet with Aaron Judge. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the parties have a sit-down scheduled for tomorrow (on Twitter).
It’s notable but entirely unsurprising to see the Giants in the market for Judge. They’ve long been speculated as perhaps the top threat to the Yankees for the reigning AL MVP’s services. That’s both a reflection of the slugger’s ties to Northern California and, more importantly, to the abundance of financial breathing room at the Giants’ disposal. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, the Giants are as well-positioned as any team to make a major splash on the open market.
San Francisco’s 2023 payroll commitments are presently estimated around $133MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve opened seasons with player spending upwards of $200MM in previous seasons, and while those heights were reached before the pandemic, they’re still well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure. The long-term books are almost bare, with just over $20MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. By 2025, the club has only a $3.5MM player option for Wilmer Flores on the ledger. In that context, it’s easy to understand president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi declaring at the GM Meetings earlier this month that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”
That includes Judge, who’s expected to land the largest deal of the offseason. He set the AL home run record with 62 home runs and hit .311/.425/.686 through 157 games. It’d have been nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season, and while Judge certainly can’t be expected to replicate that kind of production, he’s now a career .284/.394/.583 hitter in over 3000 MLB plate appearances. Few players are more imposing offensive forces. Judge also typically rates as an above-average defensive right fielder and played reasonably well over 632 2/3 innings of center field work for the Yankees this past season. He’d probably be a better fit for the corner in spacious Oracle Park, but his play in right field would upgrade an outfield defense that was among the league’s worst this year.
MLBTR predicts Judge to land an eight-year deal worth $332MM; the $41.5MM average annual value would rank second all-time, while it’d be the largest overall guarantee for a free agent in history. While the Yankees and Giants are generally perceived as the favorites in the bidding, he’s also been linked to the Dodgers. Feinsand first reported last month that L.A. was considering the possibility of jumping into the Judge market while contemplating kicking Mookie Betts into second base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated the Dodgers’ interest last week.
Of course, there are myriad possibilities for the Giants (and other big-spending teams) beyond Judge. San Francisco has also been connected to the top free agent shortstops available — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts — as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo. San Francisco also has needs in the bullpen and could look to make a splash at the top of the rotation. There are a number of avenues for Zaidi and his front office to explore, starting at the very top of free agency.
MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency
Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.
Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.
That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.
Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm
There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”
There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.
Elsewhere in the League:
- White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
- On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.
Yankees Have Made New Offer To Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge entered free agency on the heels of the best platform year we’ve seen in decades, having proven the decision to turn down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training to be a wildly successful bet on himself. Judge, who naturally declined a qualifying offer last week, is now free to field interest from teams throughout the league, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner both voiced hope of getting a deal done and keeping Judge in the Bronx long-term.
Cashman confirmed to reporters last night that the team has already made a new offer to Judge (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that because Judge’s free agency is playing out “in real time… we’re certainly not going to mess around.” Steinbrenner backed Cashman’s sentiment, stating that he’s met with Judge multiple times since the season ended and “absolutely conveyed” that he wants him “to be a Yankee for the rest of his life” (via Newsday’s David Lennon)
Naturally, because Judge is an active free agent, Cashman didn’t disclose the terms of any new offer(s) — as opposed to his surprisingly candid Spring Training press conference, wherein he publicly announced the financial details of the Yankees’ final extension offer to Judge.
Judge is widely expected to top that spring extension offer handsomely, perhaps establishing a new average annual value record for position players and/or a new free-agent contract record in the process. At present, no position player has topped the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout‘s 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels (though Max Scherzer‘s $43.33MM AAV is the overall record among big leaguers). Bryce Harper‘s $330MM contract is the largest ever signed in free agency (though not the largest contract ever, as there have been a handful of extensions promising larger total sums).
Even with some form of record payday likely looming for Judge — MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract on last week’s Top 50 rankings — Steinbrenner went on to note that he’s made clear to Judge that there’s ample payroll space to not only re-sign the recently crowned AL MVP but also make further additions to supplement the roster (via Lennon).
Even without Judge, the Yankees are projected for a bottom-line payroll north of $206MM, per Roster Resource, and a luxury-tax bill that’s already at nearly $223MM. Judge alone would push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and any subsequent moves of note would then likely push the team into the third or possibly even newly created fourth tier of luxury penalties. Of course, those figures assume that the Yankees will tender contracts to and subsequently keep all 14 of their arbitration-eligible players, which seems unlikely. At least some of that group figures to be non-tendered before tonight’s 8pm ET deadline or tendered but subsequently traded, which would obviously alter the calculus.
Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP
AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.
Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.
It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.
Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.
Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.
Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.
Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.
Full voting breakdown available here.
MLB Looking Into Potential CBA Violations By Multiple Teams Regarding Top Free Agents
Major League Baseball has opened an investigation into the Yankees and Mets to determine if their owners improperly communicated about the free agency of AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.
The investigation is rooted in a column by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month. Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The Mets could certainly make a legitimate baseball argument for not going after Judge, but communication among owners not to pursue a free agent — if it occurred — would be a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. The MLB Players Association expressed concern about the SNY article to the league, Rosenthal notes, spurring the investigation. Rosenthal adds that MLB is expected to request communication records between Cohen and Steinbrenner.
In the 1980’s, arbitrators found a pattern of collusion among owners that depressed the 1985-87 free agent markets. In 1990, owners agreed to pay players $280MM as part of a settlement. Renewed collusion allegations arose in the early 2000’s, and Rosenthal notes the league agreed to a $12MM settlement but no admission of guilt during the 2006 CBA negotiations.
The MLBPA can file a grievance on Judge’s behalf, and Rosenthal writes the union would have to demonstrate both a) improper communication between the Yankees and Mets actually occurred and b) Judge’s market was harmed by that communication.
Meanwhile, Rosenthal suggests the MLBPA could take issue with the Astros in an unrelated matter. That’d relate to comments made by Houston owner Jim Crane last night on the free agent status of Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote that “Crane said Verlander is seeking a deal similar to Max Scherzer,” who secured a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets last winter, as part of an interview with MLB.com on Tuesday. Crane isn’t quoted on the record mentioning Scherzer, telling McTaggart of Verlander: “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”
To be clear, there’s no suggestion Crane has been in conversations with other clubs about Verlander’s market. However, the CBA also expressly prohibits team officials from “(making) comments to the media about the value of an unsigned free agent, regardless of whether discussions have occurred,” including comments to the effect of “Player X is seeking more than Player Y received.”
If the Players Association decided to file a grievance against Houston, they’d likewise need to demonstrate Verlander’s market was harmed by Crane’s comments — ostensibly by arguing that Crane’s claims of the nine-time All-Star’s high asking price may deter other teams from jumping into the fray. To this point, there’s no indication the union has filed a grievance in either situation, but each bears monitoring over the coming weeks
12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers
Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.
None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.
None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.
The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
- Joc Pederson (Giants)
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.
If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.
Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.
Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.
The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.
The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.
That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.
Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.
Zaidi: Giants In Contact With Free Agent Shortstops, Plan To Issue QO To Carlos Rodon
The Giants are widely expected to be one of the league’s most active teams this offseason, with the front office reloading after an underwhelming 2022 season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) this evening and confirmed the team could play near the top of the market.
Asked about the club’s free agent priorities, Zaidi told the media “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.” He went on to note they’ve already had discussions with representatives for free agent shortstops who’ve expressed a willingness to move to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). Teams technically aren’t allowed to negotiate contract terms with free agents from other teams until tomorrow evening, but they can discuss more general concepts like roster fit during the exclusive negotiation period.
Zaidi didn’t specify the players involved, although it’s not hard to infer he’s speaking about the top shortstops on the market. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are going to be priority targets for a number of the game’s biggest-spending teams. It’s notable that Zaidi spoke of potentially moving an external pickup to the other side of the bag while keeping Crawford at shortstop, although it’s not clear if that’s an absolute requirement for any player under consideration. Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, told reporters he hasn’t heard from teams looking to push either player off the position (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).
While adding a top shortstop is plausible for a San Francisco club looking to get younger and more athletic this winter, Zaidi and his group are sure to cast a wide net. The mention of the financial wherewithal to pursue any player available will lead to further speculation about the market’s top free agent. The Giants are sure to be linked to Aaron Judge throughout the winter, as they’re indeed among the clubs most well-positioned for that kind of expenditure. San Francisco has roughly $72.5MM in guaranteed commitments on the books, pending a call on Evan Longoria’s option. Even with a fairly heavy arbitration class, the Giants have plenty of room before approaching this year’s $155MM Opening Day mark, and they’re nowhere near the franchise-record heights that pushed $200MM.
Of course, San Francisco is facing a few potential key departures. Ace Carlos Rodón opted out of the second year of his deal and is back on the open market. Zaidi confirmed the club’s obvious decision to tag him with a $19.65MM qualifying offer (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), which Rodón is a lock to reject in pursuit of a deal north of nine figures. That’d entitle the Giants to a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) in next year’s draft if the star southpaw departs.
San Francisco also sees corner outfielder Joc Pederson hit the open market, and while he certainly won’t receive a QO, Zaidi reiterated the team would like to keep him around (Shea link). The lefty-hitting outfielder posted a .274/.353/.521 line after signing a $6MM guarantee last offseason, and the club has discussed a potential extension as far back as September. Pederson is sure to beat $6MM this time around and looks to have a good shot at a multi-year contract after his quality platform year.
Yankees Notes: Judge Free Agency, LeMahieu, Kiner-Falefa
Brian Cashman addressed reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, for the first time following the Yankees’ ALCS defeat to the Houston Astros. Cashman’s future was among the topics discussed, but the GM also took time to provide some insight on various areas of the playing roster.
Aaron Judge‘s future with the organization will be the biggest question heading into the off-season, and Cashman says the team would ideally get a deal done soon if they’re to re-sign him. Judge is a strong favorite for AL MVP after hitting 62 home runs and posting a .311/.425/.686 slash line. A worst case scenario for the Yankees would be for them to miss out on Judge after his free agency drags long into the off-season and likely replacements have since signed elsewhere, so it makes sense that Cashman would prefer business to be completed swiftly.
“He’s gonna dictate the dance steps to his free agency because he’s earned the right to get there,” Cashman said. “We’ll see how it plays out. He’s the most important. If he came in here today and said, ‘I’m signing up. Let’s go,’ there’s still work to be done.”
Cashman wouldn’t offer much insight into the process, offering a “no comment” when asked if the Yankees and Judge had engaged in discussion since the end of the season. He also noted it’s more of a decision for Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner as well. Cashman’s clearly stated he wants Judge back, but the ultimate decision will land at Steinbrenner’s feet as to how big of a contract he’s willing to hand out.
DJ LeMahieu struggled with a foot injury late in the regular season and wound up missing the entire post-season. The Yankees haven’t settled on a path forward for managing that injury in the off-season, but surgery remains on the table. LeMahieu posted a .261./.357/.377 line with 12 home runs this season, well short of the MVP-level offensive output he produced for the Yankees during 2019-20. The Yankees will hope a full recovery from the injury will allow LeMahieu to post better offensive numbers, but he’ll also turn 35 in 2023 and it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect much bounceback for the veteran. With four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, he’ll certainly be back in pinstripes though, but just where he fits in is up in the air and may depend on how the off-season plays out.
LeMahieu’s played plenty of first base with the Yankees, but that’s become less of a need since Anthony Rizzo joined the team last season. It’s already been reported that Rizzo is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2023. It’s not much of a surprise given Rizzo had a strong season and is expected to benefit from shift restrictions next year. Cashman stated the Yankees will seek to re-sign Rizzo if he opts out. That could come in the form of a qualifying offer, but it seems likely Rizzo would decline that in favor of a multi-year deal.
The left side of the infield drew plenty of criticism throughout the season, and particularly during the playoffs, but Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both controlled for 2023. Donaldson is owed $21.75MM while Kiner-Falefa is into his final year of arbitration and is predicted to make $6.5MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Donaldson ranked eighth among qualified third basemen in Outs Above Average, but scuffled with the bat, hitting just .222/.308/.374 with 15 home runs. Kiner-Falefa was never expected to be a major offensive contributor, but defensive metrics were mixed on his glove work at shortstop, ranging from 28th in Outs Above Average to seventh in Defensive Runs Saved. While a change at third might be tricky given Donaldson’s significant salary, Cashman’s left the door open for change at shortstop, particularly given the impressive showing rookies Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza made down the stretch. The Yankees also have top prospect Anthony Volpe getting close to the majors.
“I think Kiner was along the lines of what we expected,” Cashman said. “It gave us an opportunity to bridge the gap while the kids continued to develop because everybody in the industry, fans and teams alike, recognize that we have some pretty impactful prospects that we’re developing and needed some more time.”
In other bits of info from Cashman’s press conference, he said he wouldn’t discuss trading players but noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks would be back and that the team felt he still had something to offer. Hicks hit .216/.330/.313 in his age-32 campaign, and has $30.4MM and at least three years remaining on his contract. It’s worth adding here that manager Aaron Boone said today he wants to utilize Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield a couple of times a week next season. Stanton has largely played as a designated hitter of late, but factoring him into the outfield depth chart more regularly would affect Hicks’ playing time.
The Yankees are also hoping to bring back pitching coach Matt Blake. Hired out of Cleveland after the Yankees parted ways with Larry Rothschild in 2019, Blake is out of contract. The Yankees ranked third in the majors in team ERA with a 3.30 mark this year, behind only the Dodgers and Astros.