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Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off

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The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.

As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.

Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.

German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.

After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.

As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.

While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.

The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.

Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.

As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.

Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.

Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.

Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.

Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.

Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging.  He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.

Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.

Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.

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It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.

Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.

Tommy John Surgery Among Options Under Consideration For Pirates’ JT Brubaker

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The Pirates placed starter JT Brubaker on the 60-day injured list over the weekend, officially keeping him out of action through late May. The right-hander has been dealing with discomfort in his throwing elbow, a nebulous but alarming issue for any pitcher.

While the Pirates haven’t yet provided a formal diagnosis or treatment plan, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Tommy John surgery is among the considerations. That’s not to say surgery is inevitable or necessarily likely, but it affirms Brubaker is dealing with a potentially serious issue.

Brubaker had entered spring camp assured of a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation. He took the ball 28 times last year, ranking second on the team with 144 innings. He allowed 4.69 earned runs per nine. That uninspiring mark was paired with more interesting peripherals, as he posted roughly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates. Brubaker punched out 22.8% of opponents, walked batters at an 8.4% clip and kept the ball on the ground 44% of the time.

An elevated .334 batting average on balls in play contributed to Brubaker’s mediocre results. Had his ERA more closely approached his passable underlying marks, he could have generated some attention at this summer’s trade deadline. Instead, Brubaker is going to miss at least a good chunk of the first half and could wind up needing season-ending surgery. He has exactly three years of major league service and qualified for arbitration last offseason, agreeing to a $2.275MM salary. He remains controllable through 2025.

With Brubaker on the shelf, righty Johan Oviedo has stepped into the starting five. Acquired from the Cardinals in last summer’s José Quintana/Chris Stratton trade, the 25-year-old Oviedo started seven games for Pittsburgh down the stretch. In 30 2/3 frames, he put up a 3.23 ERA despite walking nearly 12% of opponents. His ’23 season debut didn’t go well, as he was tagged for five runs (including three homers) over 4 2/3 innings during tonight’s outing in Boston. Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Roansy Contreras round out the present starting staff.

JT Brubaker Likely To Begin Season On IL With Elbow/Forearm Discomfort

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Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker is dealing with discomfort in his right elbow/forearm, manager Derek Shelton tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Brubaker is likely headed for the injured list to start the season.

Brubaker, 29, has been part of the club’s rotation for the past three seasons. Last year, he made 28 starts with a 4.69 ERA that might not look too impressive at first glance. However, it’s possible that figure masks his true talent, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored. His 22.8% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average last year. Some bad luck may have been in play, as his .334 batting average on balls in play and 68.8% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average. His 3.92 FIP and 3.97 SIERA suggest that better results could have been possible going forward.

The Bucs would have loved to have seen that materialize here in 2023 but it will have to wait. It’s unknown exactly how long Brubaker will be on the shelf but an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow or forearm is always concerning. The club will surely do some further testing and figure out the next steps forward.

In the meantime, the Pirates will have to proceed with one less starter in their rotation. The four other spots figure to be occupied by Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Roansy Contreras. While Brubaker is out, it’s possible that Johan Oviedo steps up and takes a few starts, though the club also has Luis Ortiz and Mike Burrows on the 40-man roster. “I think there’s a good chance it could be Oviedo,” Shelton tells Mackey. “We’re still working through things as we finalize our roster. With the fact that he’s been lengthened out, he’s the most likely one out of the group. I think there’s a good chance we could see that.”

Oviedo, 25, came over to the club in the trade that sent José Quintana to the Cardinals. Though the Cards had moved him to a relief role, the Pirates gave him another chance to start. He took the ball seven times after the trade and posted a 3.23 ERA. He may now get a chance to build on that at the start of the 2023 campaign.

NL Central Notes: Reynolds, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs

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Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said yesterday that he expects star Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds and club officials to resume discussions regarding a possible extension at some point soon. That Reynolds and the Pirates would resume talks is of little surprise. While the sides were around $50MM apart in previous discussions and Reynolds went as far as to request a trade back in December, since reporting to camp last week Reynolds has reiterated that he would still be interested in extending his stay in Pittsburgh, so long as a deal that’s fair for all parties is presented.

Whether Reynolds ultimately signs an extension with the Pirates or departs, either by trade or as a free agent following the 2025 season, he seems likely to find his payday somewhere. The 28-year-old outfielder has largely looked the part of an All Star-caliber player since his debut in 2019, barring the shortened 2020 campaign where Reynolds struggled thanks in large part to a deflated .231 BABIP and an anomalous uptick in strikeout rate. The 2021 season in particular was a stellar one for Reynolds, as he slashed .302/.390/.522 (good for a 141 wRC+) while playing strong defense in center field and accumulating 6.1 fWAR throughout a campaign that would ultimately see him garner down-ballot MVP votes. That could prove to be a ceiling, particularly if defensive metrics continue to sour on his glovework in center (as was the case in 2022), but the widespread trade interest in Reynolds and the Buccos’ own interest in extending him speak to the caliber of player he’s become in his four big league seasons.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Sticking with the Pirates, Mackey discussed right-hander Johan Oviedo’s role ahead of the coming season, indicating it’s likely he will begin the season as a member of the starting rotation in Pittsburgh. Following his arrival in the deal that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the Cardinals at the trade deadline last season, Oviedo made seven starts for the Pirates, pitching to a 3.23 ERA that was 30% better than league average by ERA+ in 30 2/3 innings of work. While the Pirates added both Rich Hill and Vince Velazquez over the offseason, both of who seem likely to join Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, and JT Brubaker in the rotation this year, Mackey notes that it’s possible that Pittsburgh will opt for a six man rotation to begin the year rather than bump Oviedo or Brubaker either to Triple-A or the bullpen.
  • Brewers left-hander Ethan Small is set to start the season in a relief role, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Small, the club’s first round pick in the 2019 draft, has spent his whole career as a starter to this point, but is now being looked at as an option for the Opening Day bullpen due to Milwaukee’s depth in terms of starting options and the club’s lack of lefty bullpen options beyond Hoby Milner, particularly given the fact that Aaron Ashby is set to begin the season on the injured list. A move to relief could be helpful for Small, who faced struggles with his control last season. The lefty posted a 13% walk rate in Triple-A en route to a 4.48 ERA in 103 innings at that level while walking eight batters in his 6 1/3 big league innings during a brief MLB debut last year.
  • Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters yesterday, including MLB.com’s Matthew Ritchie, regarding youngster Christopher Morel’s role as he heads into what will be his second season in the majors. While Morel seemed to be a potential front-runner to start at third base for the Cubs this season, Ross seems more focused on Morel’s versatility, noting he could serve as a fourth outfielder for the club behind starters Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki, or act as a utility player, combining his experience in the outfield with his ability to play every infield position besides first base. Chicago’s recent signing of third baseman Edwin Rios might factor into this thinking, as the lefty Rios has the potential to form an effective platoon with incumbent third baseman Patrick Wisdom, who mashed lefties to a line of .250/.336/.556 (147 wRC+) in 141 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitching last year.

Every Team’s Initial September Call-Ups

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Each season as the calendar flips to September, we see a flurry of transactions around Major League Baseball. Active roster sizes jump from 26 to 28 for the season’s final month, with teams permitted to bring up no more than one additional pitcher. We’ve already covered a host of transactions with 40-man roster implications throughout the day at MLBTR. Here’s a full round-up of teams’ initial September roster moves.

American League West

Houston Astros:

Los Angeles Angels:

Oakland Athletics

Seattle Mariners

  • Reinstated LHP Matthew Boyd from 60-day injured list
  • Recalled OF Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Texas Rangers

  • Selected contract of RHP Jesus Tinoco from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Recalled OF Nick Solak from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Josh Sborz to 60-day injured list

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

  • Recalled OF Adam Haseley from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Recalled RHP Matt Foster from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Corresponding move: None required

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

  • Selected contract of RHP Daniel Mengden from Triple-A Omaha
  • Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Triple-A Omaha
  • Corresponding move: None required

Minnesota Twins

  • Added LHP Austin Davis (previously claimed off waivers from Red Sox) to active roster
  • Selected contract of OF Billy Hamilton from Triple-A St. Paul
  • Corresponding move: Transferred OF Trevor Larnach to 60-day injured list

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

  • Selected contract of 1B Jesus Aguilar from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Recalled LHP DL Hall from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Corresponding move: Designated INF Richie Martin for assignment

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

  • Recalled SS Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
  • Activated INF Marwin Gonzalez from paternity list
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Reinstated RHP Matt Wisler from the 15-day injured list
  • Recalled INF Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Recalled RHP Casey Lawrence from Triple-A Buffalo
  • Added OF Bradley Zimmer (claimed off waivers from Phillies this week) to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

  • Recalled INF Alan Trejo from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Recalled RHP Chad Smith from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Reinstated LHP Clayton Kershaw from 15-day injured list
  • Recalled 3B Miguel Vargas from Triple-A Oklahoma City
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Diego Padres

  • Recalled INF Matt Beaty from Triple-A El Paso
  • Recalled RHP Reiss Knehr from Triple-A El Paso
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Francisco Giants

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

  • Selected contract of RHP Jeremiah Estrada from Triple-A Iowa
  • Recalled INF David Bote from Triple-A Iowa
  • Corresponding move: Transferred Wade Miley from 15-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Recalled RHP Luis Perdomo from Triple-A Nashville
  • Recalled OF Esteury Ruiz from Triple-A Nashville
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Recalled RHP Johan Oviedo from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Recalled OF Calvin Mitchell from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Selected contract of OF Ben DeLuzio from Triple-A Memphis
  • Recalled RHP James Naile from Triple-A Memphis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League East

Atlanta Braves

  • Reinstated IF Orlando Arcia from 10-day injured list
  • Added recently-claimed RHP Jesse Chavez to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Miami Marlins*

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Selected contract of RHP Vinny Nittoli from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Recalled C Donny Sands from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Washington Nationals

  • Recalled C Tres Barrera from Triple-A Rochester
  • Recalled RHP Mason Thompson from Triple-A Rochester
  • Corresponding moves: None required

*Marlins moves reported by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link)

Cardinals Acquire Jose Quintana, Chris Stratton From Pirates

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The Cardinals added a needed arm to the rotation and picked up a veteran reliever Monday evening, announcing an intra-division trade that will net them lefty Jose Quintana and righty Chris Stratton from the Pirates. In return, the Pirates are receiving righty Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcolm Nunez.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Quintana was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s an impending free agent on a Pittsburgh club with no chance of reaching the postseason in 2022. The Bucs were certain to move him for some players who could help beyond this season, and as a rental player, there’s no reason for Pittsburgh to be concerned about moving him to a division rival.

The Cards have kicked around the market for higher-impact arms, with former Oakland ace Frankie Montas reportedly a primary target. Once the A’s dealt Montas to the Yankees, it seems the Cards pivoted to a lower-cost veteran stabilizer for the back of the starting staff. Quintana is no longer the mid-rotation arm he was at his peak, the kind of pitcher a club would target to start a playoff game. Yet he’s had a decent bounceback season in Pittsburgh after struggling in 2021.

Quintana has made 20 starts for the Pirates, working to a 3.50 ERA. He’s only averaged a hair above five innings per outing, tallying 103 frames on the season. The sheltered role — in which Pittsburgh has limited his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a start — has aided the veteran southpaw, but his production has been good on a rate basis. Quintana’s 20.6% strikeout rate is a bit below average, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a solid 11.2% of his offerings. He’s also generated grounders on a slightly above-average 45% of batted balls — a trait that has been of appeal of the Cards front office in light of the team’s strong infield defense — and he’s only walked 7.2% of opponents.

Adding Quintana addresses a rotation that has been hit with a couple notable injuries in recent weeks. Jack Flaherty is shelved once again after battling renewed shoulder concerns, though the Cards hope he can return late this month. Offseason signee Steven Matz, meanwhile, tore the MCL in his left knee and could miss the remainder of the season. While he’s not officially been ruled out for the year, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that it’d be “very, very difficult” to get him back onto a mound in 2022.

The Cardinals add Quintana to a rotation that also includes Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and rookie Andre Pallante. The Cards have top prospect Matthew Liberatore as a depth option, but he’s bounced on and off the active roster throughout the year. Pallante, meanwhile, has spent a good chunk of the season in the bullpen and could be on an innings limit. Even with a hopeful late-season return from Flaherty, the Cardinals could still look into another rotation pickup in addition to Quintana.

Chris Stratton | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Stratton, meanwhile, gives the Cards a veteran reliever who’s worked in a leverage role with the Pirates for the past few seasons. He’s sitting on an ugly 5.09 ERA in 2022 but was a rock-solid member of the bullpen in 2020-21.

This year’s struggles have come in large part due to a bloated .365 average on balls in play against Stratton, who’s actually sporting a career-low 7.2% walk rate so far. The former first-round pick has seen his strikeout rate dip from last season’s 25.5% to 20.4% in 2022, but his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last year’s mark and his 37.3% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate is a career-best (and well north of the league average). He’s also a perennial spin-rate darling, and 2022 is no exception. Stratton leads all of Major League Baseball in fastball spin rate this season, and the spin rate on his curveball clocks into the 99th percentile.

All in all, Stratton looks like a nice rebound candidate, particularly once he moves from a Pirates club that ranks 24th in the Majors with -12 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) to a Cardinals club that ranks third with a collective +19 mark in that same category. As a bonus, Stratton will remain under team control into the 2023 season via arbitration.

It’s an affordable gambit for the Cardinals, as the 33-year-old Quintana is guaranteed just $2MM this season and Stratton is earning a similar $2.7MM salary. The final few months of those salaries won’t make much of an impact on St. Louis’ payroll outlook for the remainder of the year.

Turning to the Pirates’ end of the swap, they’ll add an immediate big league option for their staff in the 24-year-old Oviedo, who has logged MLB time with the Cardinals in each of the past three seasons. The 2022 campaign is the first that he’s enjoyed above-average results, but he’s been quite impressive in a bullpen role this season after struggling as a starter in 2020-21. Through 25 1/3 innings, Oviedo owns a 3.20 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, a very strong 6.5% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate.

Oviedo is averaging a career-best 95.6 mph on his heater this season after moving into a multi-inning relief role, and he’s sporting career-best swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (13.3% and 33.9%, respectively). The Pirates could entertain the idea of moving him back into a starting role, but Oviedo has been hit hard as a starter both in Triple-A and in the Majors to this point in his career. The move to the bullpen may well be the best role for him going forward, and if that’s the case he can be a member of the Pittsburgh bullpen for years to come. Oviedo will finish the season with under two years of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled five years beyond the current season.

Nunez, 21, was the Cardinals’ No. 13 prospect on Baseball America’s midseason update of their prospect rankings. He’s in his second stint at the Double-A level and enjoying a much more productive go of it this time around, hitting .255/.360/.463 with 17 big flies in that pitcher-friendly setting. Nunez has walked at a hearty 13.7% clip and is striking out at a manageable 20.3% rate.

Scouting reports on Nunez give him little chance of sticking at third base, but the Cardinals have emphasized improving his defense in recent years and continue to play him at the hot corner. Nunez draws praise for above-average to plus power and a potentially above-average hit tool. A move to first base or even designated hitter might be in his future, but he adds an intriguing bat to the Pirates’ system — one who could soon be ready for the Triple-A level.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Cardinals were finalizing a Quintana deal (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke the news that Stratton was also headed to St. Louis (on Twitter). Francys Romero reported the Pirates’ return (Twitter link).

Cardinals Promote Zack Thompson, Designate Kramer Robertson

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably selecting the contract of 2019 first-rounder Zack Thompson, who’ll join the pitching staff with the Cards slated to play four games in the next three days. Infielder Kramer Robertson was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move. The Cards also optioned lefty Matthew Liberatore and right-hander Kodi Whitley to Triple-A Memphis and recalled righty Johan Oviedo from Memphis. Furthermore, the Cardinals announced that outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson will begin minor league rehab assignments — O’Neill in Triple-A and Carlson in Double-A.

Thompson, 24, was the 19th overall pick in 2019 and has ranked among the Cardinals’ best pitching prospects since being selected that day. He’s not as highly touted as Liberatore, who was just optioned out, but ranks 15th in their system at Baseball America and ninth at MLB.com. The lefty saw his stock drop in 2021, when he posted an ERA just north of 7.00 and walked 12.8% of his opponents in Triple-A. However, that came after an aggressive jump from Class-A Advanced, where he’d thrown just 13 1/3 innings, and on the heels of a year-long layoff from pitching in a game setting due to the canceled 2020 minor league season.

Thompson has gotten out to a much better start in 2022. He’s still far from dominant in Triple-A but has worked to a 4.67 ERA in a hitter-friendly setting while sporting dramatically improved K-BB numbers. His strikeout rate is up from 18.5% in 2021 to 30.1% in 2022, while that 12.8% walk rate has been curbed to a very solid 8.1%. He’s induced grounders at a 44% clip — very slightly above the MLB 43.1% average — which should pair nicely with the Cardinals’ elite infield defense.

Scouting reports on Thompson note that his velocity took a step back in early 2021, though BA notes that it improved over the season. At his best, Thompson sits in the low 90s but can reach back to dial it up as high as 97 mph on the radar gun, and both BA and MLB.com tout his plus curveball and its elite spin rate. If he’s back on track in terms of velocity, there’s a chance for Thompson to eventually settle in as a mid-rotation starter in St. Louis, where the team’s overall defensive mastery can help to boost any pitcher’s raw run-prevention numbers.

Injuries to Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz have thinned out the St. Louis rotation at the moment, so Thompson could parlay this first big league look into a more prominent opportunity if he impresses early on. Looking forward, Adam Wainwright is only on a one-year deal, and it’s not clear what the future holds for him. Thompson and Liberatore could be vying for permanent rotation spots alongside Flaherty, Matz, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas before long, now that both have reached the Majors for the first time.

From a service time vantage point, Thompson’s promotion comes far too late in the season for him to accumulate the service time needed to reach a full year in 2022. As such, the earliest he could potentially reach free agency would be after the 2028 season. If he sticks in the big leagues from here onward, he’d likely reach Super Two status and be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but one look at the manner in which Liberatore has already been shuttled back and forth a few times suggests that Thompson could be handled similarly.

As for the 27-year-old Robertson, he was selected to the 40-man roster back in early May but appeared in just two games before being optioned back to Memphis. Robertson went hitless in his lone plate appearance, though he did pick up an RBI. The 2017 fourth-rounder is a career .242/.367/.396 hitter in 222 Triple-A games and has routinely turned in elite walk rates throughout his minor league tenure. He’s never hit for a high average or displayed much power, however, and he’s been primarily a second baseman and third baseman rather than a shortstop, which curbs his appeal as a utility option. Robertson does have all three minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible another club will look at that and his gaudy OBP marks and see some optionable infield depth.

The Cards will have a week to trade Robertson or attempt to pass him through outright waivers, at which point all 29 other clubs would be able to place a claim.

Cardinals To Place Jack Flaherty On 10-Day Injured List With “Significant” Oblique Injury

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The Cardinals will place Jack Flaherty on the 10-day injured list, but the news is much worse than just that, per MLB.com’s Jeff Jones (via Twitter). Flaherty suffered a “significant” oblique injury, adds the Athletic’s Katie Woo. There is no timetable for his return, but the initial word choices here do not paint a positive picture for the Cardinals’ right-hander, who may be looking at a Grade 2 or Grade 3 oblique strain – though no official designation has been given.

This comes as unwelcome news for the Cardinals, who are trying to fend off the Cubs and Brewers for first place in the NL Central. Obviously, losing their ace won’t help that cause. Flaherty has a 2.90 ERA/3.68 FIP in 62 innings through 11 starts, good for 1.0 fWAR. He has been allowing more fly balls than usual with a career-low 36.3 percent groundball rate, but those air-balls haven’t been leaving the yard – 11.7 HR/FB% is the lowest of his career.

The rest of Flaherty’s profile looks pretty close to what we’ve come to expect from the 25-year-old. He’s striking out 26.3 percent of opponents while walking 7.8 percent – both of which are above-average rates for starters this season. He’s averaging 93.9 mph on his four-seamer, which is right in line with the past couple of seasons. He’s gone with more four-seamers than sinkers than usual, but not enough to suggest a change in approach.

In the short-term,Johan Oviedo will take Flaherty’s spot in the rotation. Oviedo was recently optioned to Triple-A, but he’s been recalled in light of Flaherty’s injury. The 23-year-old has a 5.40 ERA/6.02 FIP in 20 innings this season. Before you ask, young hurlers Alex Reyes and Genesis Cabrera have already been ruled out by manager Mike Shildt as rotation options, tweets Jones. Daniel Ponce de Leon or Jake Woodford, however, could be stretched out with the possibility of opening games on the hill.

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