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NL Roster/Health Notes: Taylor, Verdugo, Cecil, Romano, Kennedy

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The Nationals are suddenly facing a potential roster gap in the outfield, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. Michael Taylor tweaked his knee today and is slated to be looked at more closely tomorrow. With Howie Kendrick also in limbo, both of the club’s right-handed-hitting reserve outfield pieces could be out of commission to open the season. Lefty hitter Andrew Stevenson is the only other 40-man outfielder. Perhaps there’s a chance that the Nats will look to the free agent market — Austin Jackson seems the closest match to Taylor as a right-handed-hitting center fielder — or consider claiming a late-spring roster casualty to boost their depth.

Here are a few more roster notes from around the game:

  • The Dodgers expect to carry Alex Verdugo on the MLB roster to open the year, manager Dave Roberts says (via Pedro Moura of The Athletic, on Twitter). After spending two seasons at Triple-A, where he owns a healthy .321/.389/.452 slash, Verdugo certainly deserves a shot. It remains to be seen how he and others will actually be utilized. As things stand, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger are also available as left-handed-hitting outfield options, though perhaps some roster tweaking could still occur.
  • Cardinals lefty Brett Cecil pitched in an instrasquad game today and threw more balls (15) than strikes (12) in his latest shaky outing, according to Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This spring has been a trial for the veteran reliever, who’s still trying to find himself on the mound after losing a bunch of weight following a brutal 2018 season. Command and velocity are both problems at the moment, as Frederickson’s colleague Derrick Goold recently explored.
  • Right-hander Sal Romano, who has spent the vast majority of his career as a starter, will be converted into a relief role for the Reds moving forward, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. He’ll still be stretched out to the point where he can be relied upon for two- and three-inning relief appearances if needed, though. Unlike some other Reds roster hopefuls, Romano has a minor league option remaining, so it’s possible he’ll continue to acclimate to his new role at the Triple-A level before getting a look the big league ’pen. Romano, who turned 25 this offseason, has long rated as one of the more intriguing arms in the Cincinnati system but hasn’t found MLB success yet. In 232 2/3 innings, he’s mustered just a 4.99 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 — including a 5.31 ERA in 145 2/3 innings of work last year. Making it into the Reds’ rotation would’ve been challenging anyhow, as offseason acquisitions Sonny Gray, Alex Wood and Tanner Roark are expected to join holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani to round out the starting five.
  • Padres right-hander Brett Kennedy has been diagnosed with a lat strain, per James Clark of the East Village Times (Twitter link). The expectation is that he’ll be sidelined for about a month. Kennedy, 24, scuffled last year in his first six MLB appearances and wasn’t expected to command a big league job out of camp. But he posted impressive results in 2018 at Triple-A, with 89 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball over 16 starts, and is certainly part of the depth picture in San Diego.

Latest On Cubs’ Bullpen

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With Brandon Morrow expected to miss the first month of the season and Pedro Strop now nursing a hamstring strain, the Cubs are looking at some questions in their relief corps. The organization has sent some conflicting signals, though, on how it intends to proceed.

Skipper Joe Maddon suggested there was some discussion of potential acquisitions in recent comments, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times writes. Though Wittenmyer reports that there have been no budgetary changes that would support pursuit of Craig Kimbrel, he indicated that the organization might look to the waiver wire and explore potential trades to deepen their bullpen.

President of baseball operations Theo Epstein put a somewhat different spin on things in his comments later today. He said that he does not “foresee anything significant at all” in terms of new acquisitions and added that he is confident in the team’s existing depth. (Twitter links.)

It stands to reason that the club will at least look into other possibilities. The Cubs could at a minimum peruse this season’s crop of out-of-options players, as several of those players face uphill battles to make their current rosters.

That said, Chicago isn’t exactly teeming with bullpen flexibility. Even if Morrow and Strop open the year on the injured list, the team projects to commit roster spots to at least six veterans who can’t be optioned: Mike Montgomery, Steve Cishek, Brad Brach, Brandon Kintzler, Brian Duensing and Tyler Chatwood. Beyond that, while Carl Edwards Jr. can technically be optioned, he’s a lock for the Opening Day roster.

Speculatively speaking, perhaps the Cubs would simply part ways with an underperforming veteran if a more affordable bullpen option presented itself. It could also be that an intervening development will open a spot. As it stands, though, the club’s relief corps currently looks like a potentially problematic area that can’t be easily addressed.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After a surprising 2018 season, the Rays prepared for a full return to contention with some intriguing trades and the priciest free agent signing in club history.

Major League Signings

  • Charlie Morton, SP: Two years, $30MM (plus vesting option for 2021 that could be worth as much as $15MM depending on time spent on injured list)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Total spend: $33.5MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable International Signings

  • Sandy Gaston, RHP: $2.61MM signing bonus

Notable Losses

[Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart | Tampa Bay Rays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rays enjoyed great success with the “opener” strategy in 2018, and they’ll continue to use openers to account for two of their five rotation spots this season.  Joining reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and promising but still rather unproven righty Tyler Glasnow is an established veteran, yet one that still seems somewhat “young” in the sense that we’re only entering the third season of the reinvented Charlie Morton.

After nine seasons of decent but unspectacular work for the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies, Morton breathed new life into his career as a member of the 2017-18 Astros.  The soft-tossing groundball specialist suddenly turned into a strikeout machine with a 95mph fastball, whiffing 364 batters in just 313 2/3 innings for Houston.

Since Morton turned 35 last November, however, his earning outlook was limited. It was the Rays who made a rare free agent splash to land the right-hander, agreeing to a sizable contract that doesn’t come with risk of long-term entanglements.  Geography played a role (Morton and his family live in nearby Bradenton, Florida), though Morton was undoubtedly intrigued at the possibility of joining another young team that may be on the cusp of contention.  This isn’t to say that the Rays are about to enjoy a 2017 Astros-esque level of success, yet the club has further established itself as a legitimate contender to reach the postseason, something that would’ve been sounded wild a year ago at this time.

Both last offseason and throughout 2018, Tampa Bay unloaded virtually all of its highest-paid veteran players, yet thrived by acquiring and developing unheralded young replacements who largely outproduced those more established names.  This allowed the Rays to feel comfortable in making a big expenditure on Morton — his $15MM salary is almost a quarter of Tampa’s entire payroll.

This financial flexibility allowed the Rays to take a bit of a deeper look into the free agent and trade markets.  Beyond Morton, Tampa Bay also had interest in such free agent names as slugger Nelson Cruz and second baseman DJ LeMahieu, while the Rays were also one of the many teams who discussed a J.T. Realmuto swap with the Marlins.

Mike Zunino | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsThe Rays ended up doing in a different direction to address that latter need at catcher….well, as much as a Rays/Mariners trade can be described as “different” given the two clubs’ extensive history of deals.  This time, the Rays and M’s combined on a five-player swap that saw Mallex Smith go to Seattle, while Tampa Bay added Guillermo Heredia to more or less take Smith’s place in the outfield, plus acquired catcher Mike Zunino to bring some stability behind the plate.

Zunino is well-known as one of the better defensive catchers in baseball, with outstanding pitch-framing and an increasing knack for throwing out baserunners.  At minimum, the Rays will add some strong defense and some added pop to their catcher’s spot, as Zunino has 90 homers over the last five seasons.  It seemed as if Zunino was rounding into becoming a true offensive force with a .251/.331/.509 season in 2017, yet he took a big step backwards to his old low-average and low-OBP ways last year, with just a .201/.259/.410 slash line over 405 plate appearances.  The Rays as a whole cut back on their strikeout rate (25% to 22.4%) from 2017 to 2018, so there’s some hope that a new environment can help Zunino regain some of his 2017 patience.

Such a rebound would also be welcomed from Avisail Garcia, who turned in a huge 2017 but otherwise hasn’t completed a full season with an OBP of over .309.  Garcia followed up his career year with a disappointing .236/.281/.438 performance over 385 PA, leading the White Sox to decline tendering a contract.  The outfielder was hampered by injuries last year, however, leading the Rays to take a relatively inexpensive risk ($3.5MM) to see if Garcia can get on track.

The Rays’ offseason was also highlighted by a pair of three-team trades, one of which involved the Indians and (again) the Mariners.  Tampa Bay’s involvement in the trade saw the Rays essentially swap former top prospect Jake Bauers for former Cleveland infielder Yandy Diaz, giving the Rays a bit more multi-positional versatility since Diaz can also play some third base, while matching Bauers’ skillset as a first baseman and corner outfielder.  Minor league righty Cole Sulser and his eye-opening 12.3 K/9 at Triple-A also came to Tampa in the deal, giving the Rays another bullpen depth option.

A few years after being linked to Jurickson Profar in trade rumors, Tampa Bay was finally part of a Profar deal, only as the third team in the mix while the Athletics ended up with the infielder.  The Rays’ contribution was three minor league pitchers to the Rangers, while picking up righty Emilio Pagan and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick (currently the 39th overall selection) from Oakland.  Pagan will help fill the void left by veteran Sergio Romo in the bullpen, though Pagan’s tendency to allow a lot of fly balls and home runs will be tested in the AL East.

Questions Remaining

This is just speculative, but since the Rays picked up an extra draft pick in the Profar trade, perhaps that might make the team more open to surrendering a high pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent….like, for instance, Craig Kimbrel.  The Rays are at least keeping an eye on Kimbrel’s market to see if the closer would be willing to take a shorter-term (one or two years) contract, though it may still be something of a longshot that Kimbrel ends up at Tropicana Field.

Adding Kimbrel would certainly be a major way of addressing a closer position that otherwise didn’t seem like a big priority for the Rays this winter.  The team seems comfortable using Jose Alvarado as its primary ninth-inning option, though it’s fair to assume that several others will get some save opportunities as Tampa mixes and matches its arms.  Ryne Stanek and Diego Castillo, for instance, could be used in the ninth inning when they’re not being used as openers.

Beyond just the personnel involved, the bigger question might be simply whether lightning can strike twice for the Rays and their opener strategy.  Opponents have now had more time to get a book on Tampa Bay’s young relief corps, of course, and the uniqueness of the opener may fade now that other teams are also planning to use a one-or-two inning “starter” for one of their rotation spots.  Adding Morton to chew up quality innings should help keep the bullpen fresh, though the Rays will again be performing a constant juggling act of their relievers, including a frequent shuttle to and from Triple-A Durham.

The same question could be asked of the position players.  Only five Rays players topped the 400-PA plateau last season, in part due to some key names being added or subtracted in trades, but also due to the team’s roster full of players with multi-position capability, able to be moved in and out of the lineup as a game situation warrants.  This season’s Rays have more of a set starting lineup on paper, though it will require some players to prove themselves capable of regular duty.

Trading Smith, for instance, puts pressure on Austin Meadows (a former top prospect) to take the leap in his second MLB season.  Shortstop Willy Adames is being counted on for his own second-year improvement, while Joey Wendle will have to avoid a sophomore slump.  Garcia is a total wild card.  Ji-Man Choi delivered big numbers over 189 PA for Tampa last season, and will now have to produce over a full year as a frequent choice as the designated hitter.  For Kevin Kiermaier and Matt Duffy, their primary challenge will simply be to stay healthy (Duffy has already run into problems in this regard).

As noted earlier, the Rays looked at some bigger names this winter, and did come away with Morton to help stabilize the rotation.  Zunino also fills a need behind the plate, even if he isn’t Realmuto.  For the remainder of the everyday lineup, however, it’s hard to argue that signing someone like Nelson Cruz wouldn’t have provided a clearer hitting upgrade.  After Edwin Encarnacion was dealt from Cleveland to Seattle as part of that three-team deal, there was speculation that Encarnacion would then be flipped to Tampa, though such a follow-up move never materialized.

The Rays ended up with the much less-experienced first base/DH combination of Diaz and Choi, with others (Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe) likely to cycle through first base and much of the roster likely getting a DH day when warranted.  Still, despite Choi’s impressive 2018 and Diaz’s highly-touted exit velocity numbers, Tampa might not have made much of a step up from Bauers and C.J. Cron, let alone the boost that a Cruz or Encarnacion would have provided.

The Rays designated Cron for assignment and watched him leave on waivers rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM arbitration salary. Bauers was moved after just one MLB season, following two years as a top-100 ranked prospect.  It says something about Tampa Bay’s belief in Diaz that the team was willing to move Bauers this early in his career, though it could also speak to the sport’s general devaluation of players (like Bauers) who are limited to playing only first base and a little bit of subpar corner outfield.

2019 Season Outlook

The Red Sox and Yankees are both at least a few steps ahead of the Rays in the AL East, though Tampa Bay compares pretty favorably to the rest of the American League’s wild card contenders.  Given the front office’s penchant for reshaping its roster on the fly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays attempt a big midseason trade if they’re in the playoff hunt.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tony Cingrani To Open Season On Injured List

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Dodgers southpaw Tony Cingrani will open the season on the injured list, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. He’s dealing with shoulder soreness of the same kind that bothered him in 2018.

It isn’t clear at this point just how long Cingrani will be sidelined. The club will shut him down for at least two weeks, over which time he’ll receive medical treatment. Presumably the next steps will be determined at that time.

Entering the offseason, some may have wondered whether Cingrani might be non-tendered. He was limited to 22 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA pitching in the 2018 season.

The Dodgers obviously saw the upside in his powerful left arm, however, as they gave him a fully guaranteed $2.65MM arbitration contract in his final season of eligibility. Cingrani carried 14.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 last year, generating a career-high 13.8% swinging-strike rate by increasing the usage (to 19.3%) of the slider that has typically taken a back seat to his 94+ mph four-seamer.

Thus far in camp, Gurnick says, Cingrani has shown reduced velocity. That was also the case when he returned late last season. It might have been hoped that a full winter of rest would allow Cingrani to get back to his customary mid-nineties heat, but it seems he’ll require further rehab work before giving it another go.

Blue Jays Reassign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Minors Camp

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The Blue Jays have reassigned third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to minor-league camp, the club announced and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to cover (via Twitter). That news brings an official end to the MLB camp experience of baseball’s best hitting prospect.

Guerrero, 19, had already likely wrapped up his spring work owing to the intervention of a recent oblique injury. That nixed any remaining chance that he’d open the season on the active MLB roster — an opportunity that likely wasn’t available anyway, given the front office’s established position on his readiness.

Toronto president Mark Shapiro recently discussed things further, as Nicholson-Smith reported. The club would like to see a “light bulb going off” for the exceptionally talented youngster, who’s expected to be a franchise centerpiece for years to come.

Though he didn’t express any concern with Guerrero’s work ethic, conditioning, or dedication, Shapiro did discuss a need for him (and other young players) to learn how to “live your life with intent.” It’s understandable that the Jays would like Guerrero to seize his full potential with a committed “intent to get better,” though a cynic might be inclined to turn the tables on the front office’s own intentions here. There’s ample reason to believe that Guerrero would be a high-quality major leaguer right now, even if he’s not a fully developed all-around player. And it’s at least fair to question whether his skills and habits will be honed faster in Buffalo rather than in Toronto.

There was one other aspect of Shapiro’s commentary that seems worthy of further attention. The veteran executive said:

“The reality is there’s 50 decisions throughout the day that you can control. If you start to control 38 or 40 of those 50 decisions every day, you’re going to make decisions for Ross (Atkins). Ross isn’t going to have to make them. What you’re ultimately hoping to do is hand the development over to the player.”

We’re all accustomed to hearing pretext for service-time-driven decisions. Some of it has some grounding in reality. Shapiro’s views on players owning their own careers surely have some merit and grounding in good intentions. Vlad Jr. can surely improve his glovework and baserunning as well. But it seems awfully disingenuous to suggest that off-field dedication by a player can “make decisions” for a front office even as teams decline even to acknowledge the often-dispositive influence of long-term player control and financial considerations in promotional decisions.

Kyle Seager Undergoes Surgery For Injured Tendon

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March 14: Seager will miss 10 to 12 weeks following the procedure, general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters (link via Johns). He won’t swing a bat for the next eight weeks and isn’t likely to return to the field before June.

March 11: Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager is slated to undergo surgery to repair an injured tendon in his left hand, MLB.com’s Greg Johns was among those to report (Twitter links). He’s expected to be sidelined for all of April, at least, with a precise timeline as yet unknown.

Seager had been preparing for what he hoped to be a bounceback season at the plate. Now, the 31-year-old will need to overcome a physical obstacle before he has a chance to show that his forgettable 2018 season was just a down year.

Durability has never been an issue for Seager, who has never been placed on the disabled list during his eight-year MLB career. He will be among the first players to go on the newly-dubbed injured list, however, and will therefore fall shy of 154 games played for the first time since his first full season in the majors back in 2012.

Seager had also always been an above-average big league hitter until running into trouble last year. He ended the season with an ugly .221/.273/.400 slash and 22 home runs in 630 plate appearances — a far cry from the .263/.332/.447 line he carried entering the season.

There were some indications that poor fortune played a role in that decline. Seager carried a career-low .251 BABIP despite what Statcast categorized as a 39.6% hard contact rate. His .288 wOBA lagged his .306 xwOBA, though that still fell well shy of his prior levels.

Worryingly, Seager also saw changes in his plate discipline. He struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate while walking at a career-low 6.0% clip. On the bright side, Seager’s power was down from his prior four seasons, though his .178 isolated power mark wasn’t too far off of his .183 career rate.

There were also mixed signals defensively. Seager continued to receive quality grades from Ultimate Zone Rating for his glovework. The opposite was true of the Defensive Runs Saved system, which has swung wildly and not seen eye to eye with UZR on Seager over the years.

Ryon Healy will step in at the hot corner for the meantime, per skipper Scott Servais (also via Johns, on Twitter). Missing out on a month or more of Seager’s contributions represents less-than-promising news for the M’s, though the club has already made clear it doesn’t expect to push for a postseason spot this year. With $56MM committed to Seager over the next three seasons, the Seattle organization will be concerned mostly with his ability to regain his form with the bat once he is back at full health.

Jose Berrios Declined Extension Offer From Twins

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The Twins have already extended a pair of young players this winter, inking both Max Kepler (five years, $35MM) and Jorge Polanco (five years, $25.75MM) to long-term deals, and they at least made an attempt to hammer out a long-term arrangement with Jose Berrios as well. The young righty tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he and his representatives at Wasserman turned away an extension offer this winter.

Berrios, however, didn’t rule out signing a contract that would extend his stay in Minnesota — perhaps even before Opening Day 2019. “I have to manage my business, too,” said the 24-year-old. “…We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.”

Miller lists the recent extensions signed by Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) and Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) as data points, though it’s not clear that Berrios’ camp is seeking that type of guarantee. Furthermore, Severino was a Super Two player when he signed that deal, and Nola was had already reached three years of MLB service. Both players were already eligible for arbitration and were in line for salaries of at least $4.4MM for the coming season, whereas Berrios has two years, 44 days of MLB service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter. As such, signing a comparable contract to either Nola or Severino would set a new precedent for the two-to-three service class.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored when looking at a potential extension for the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland, Berrios finds himself among a group of quality players with two-plus years of service who still seem likely to fall shy of record-setting money. Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM extension, signed on the heels of a Cy Young season, is the largest ever for a non-Super-Two pitcher with between two and three years of MLB service. Berrios’ case, clearly, isn’t as strong; historically speaking, he’s more in line with a large group of starters who signed in the realm of $30MM over five years (though many of those contracts are close to a decade old). It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that Berrios’ asking price and the parameters put forth by the Twins earlier this winter aren’t known.

Berrios had an awful rookie campaign as a 22-year-old but has since settled in as very solid big league starter — one whose raw stuff and former prospect pedigree create optimism that there’s still a fair bit of improvement left in the tank. Dating back to 2017, the Puerto Rican-born righty has worked to a 3.86 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 338 innings. He’ll take the hill for Minnesota in his first career Opening Day start this season as the Twins hope the long touted right-hander can take another step forward and keep them in competition for a division title in the AL Central.

If Berrios is able to do that, he’ll vault himself into another tier of earning potential. At that point, he’d line up more comparably with Nola’s $45MM guarantee or the $51MM guarantee attained by the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, the latter of which stands out as the largest deal ever promised to a pitcher with between three and four years of MLB service (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). For the time being, Miller’s colleague La Velle E. Neal III reports (via Twitter) that Berrios agreed to a one-year contract worth $620K for the upcoming season — his final pre-arbitration salary before at least entering the arb process next winter. Minnesota controls Berrios through the 2022 campaign.

Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

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Here’s our list of the largest contract each of the 30 MLB teams has ever signed.  Each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.

MLB, MLBPA Announce Single Trade Deadline, Changes To Roster Size

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10:10am: The league and Union have formally announced the changes. A full rundown of the new rules is available, but here’s a more concise overview:

Effective Immediately

  • There will be no trades after July 31. August trade waivers have been eliminated, though players can still be placed on and claimed from outright waivers, as they would throughout the rest of the year.
  • All-Star voting will still be conducted by fans online, but the top three players at each position, in each league, will now participate in an All-Star Election Day. The top three vote-getters at each position, in each league, (top six in the case of outfielders) will receive bonus payments.
  • The Home Run Derby will now come with $2.5MM of prize money, including a $1MM prize for the winner.
  • The maximum number of mound visits per game will be reduced from six to five.
  • Commercial breaks between innings are reduced to two minutes in length for all games.
  • The MLB and MLBPA will form a “Joint Committee” to discuss further issues and rule changes.

Effective Beginning in 2020

  • The standard roster size in regular season games and postseason games will increase from 25 to 26 players. Beginning on Sept. 1, roster size will expand further to a 28-player maximum (as opposed to the current 40). A maximum number of pitchers will be designated by the Joint Committee. (Passan reported that the league has proposed no more than half a team’s players can be pitchers.)
  • Position players are only eligible to pitch in extra innings or when a team is leading or trailing by seven or more runs. Certain position players may be designated as “two-way players,” but to be eligible, they’ll need to have accrued at least 20 innings pitched and started 20 games as a position player/designated hitter in the current season or the preceding season (including at least three trips to the plate in each of those lineup appearances).
  • A pitcher must face at least three batters per appearance unless he is removed due to injury or the half-inning in which he is pitching ends before three batters have come to the plate.
  • The minimum length of stay for pitchers who are optioned to the minors or placed on the injured list will increase from 10 days to 15 days. This change is still “subject to input” from the newly formed Joint Committee.

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