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2023-24 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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It was a bit of a slow burn, but the Giants ended up being the main beneficiary of the tepid offseason, as they were able to sign three star players after February had already begun. Since they had also signed a significant deal with a Korean superstar and traded for a former Cy Young winner, it added up to the most significant winter the club has had in years.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $73.755MM (not including Lee’s posting fee or Snell’s 2026 signing bonus)
Total spending: $324.005MM (not including Lee’s posting fee)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Many recent offseasons for the Giants have been defined by who they didn’t acquire. They were in the mix for superstars like Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge but ultimately didn’t get those deals across the finish line. They had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa before the team got scared off by his physical and walked away.

The result has been that the clubs of the Farhan Zaidi era have mostly been middling, sputtering by while cobbling together some decent role players, compiling some passable platoon pairings and oscillating almost every pitcher between the rotation and bullpen. Since Zaidi took over as president of baseball operations in November of 2018, the Giants have mostly hovered below .500, apart from a 107-win campaign in 2021 that now looks like a clear outlier.

Gabe Kapler won manager of the year for that surge, but the club fell to 81-81 in 2022 and then 79-83 last year. Before last year’s campaign was even finished, the club decided to move on from Kapler, as he was shown the door at the end of September.

Thankfully, a solution to their managerial vacancy fell from the sky, which was perhaps an omen of how the rest of their offseason would play out. Across the division and the state of California, rumors started to percolate out of San Diego about discord within the Padres organization. That club’s manager Bob Melvin had reportedly been clashing with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. They initially planned to put their differences aside and continue working together, but the Giants came calling and asked to talk to Melvin, which the Padres agreed to.

Melvin was the manager of the Athletics when Zaidi was working in that front office, prior to joining the Giants. Presumably, the two were at least passingly familiar with each other from then and Melvin decided to skipper his ship up the coast to the Bay Area. Melvin’s contract with the Padres ran through 2024, as did Zaidi’s with the Giants. But the Giants decided to give the two some extra job security by extending both through 2026.

With the decisions made about the decision makers, the focus could turn to the roster. Starting pitching was a clear target after a season in which the club was quite nonchalant about moving guys between the rotation and the bullpen. Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and rookie Kyle Harrison were the only pitchers to work exclusively as starters, as Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Jakob Junis and others were oscillated between starting and relieving gigs, with Wood later expressing some frustration with that inconsistency.

That hodgepodge rotation got even thinner this offseason, with Manaea opting out of his deal and returning to the open market. Wood and Junis also became free agents while Cobb required hip surgery at the end of October, with a recovery timeline that would keep him out of action into the 2024 season.

Zaidi acknowledged early on that starting pitching would be a priority, as well as outfield defense. At shortstop, Zaidi said in October that rookie Marco Luciano would have the chance to be the everyday guy, though the club’s commitment to that plan would later prove to be weak.

At first, the club set its sights high, seemingly looking for the superstar it had failed to land in previous offseasons. All eyes were on Shohei Ohtani in the early parts of the offseason and the Giants stayed involved in that market the whole way through. They were apparently willing to offer Ohtani the same heavily-deferred contract that he eventually signed with the Dodgers, but it nonetheless went down as another miss.

And it wasn’t the only big whiff of the winter, as the club was also connected to targets like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others, but none of that group would be coming to San Francisco either.

In mid-December, they did make one notable strike. Jung Hoo Lee, a star in Korea, agreed to join the Giants on a six-year, $113MM deal. The 25-year-old outfielder is not a star in North America, at least not yet, but it was easily the biggest free agent deal of the Zaidi era. Previously, that was the $44MM over two years given to Carlos Rodón, who ended up opting out after just one year. It’s a bit of a gamble since there’s some uncertainty about whether Lee’s approach will translate to the majors, but his youth and athleticism could allow him to serve as a solid everyday center fielder and leadoff-hitting type.

As for the rotation, the club’s signing of Jordan Hicks sat as the most notable addition for a long time. In mid-January, he and the club agreed to a four-year, $44MM pact. That contract was roughly in line with expectations for Hicks as a reliever but it was a surprise to hear that the Giants were going to plug him into the rotation.

Hicks has youth on his side, still just 27 years old, but counting on him to provide bulk innings is no guarantee. He was a starter as a prospect but never logged more than 105 innings, which came back in 2017. Since reaching the majors, the Cardinals have mostly kept him in relief. They gave him a chance to try starting again in 2022 but he suffered a flexor strain in May and the club moved him back to the bullpen once he was healthy.

He has triple-digit heat but has been more passable than dominant, with a career ERA of 3.85 thus far. His 28.4% strikeout rate last year was strong but he still walked 11.2% of batters he faced. He compensates for those free passes with heaps of ground balls but it remains to be seen whether he can do that for multiple innings and for an extended stretch of time.

There was another significant rotation move that came in January, though one that wouldn’t be able to help in the short term. The Giants sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to the Mariners in exchange for lefty Robbie Ray. The signing of Lee had given the Giants a bit of an outfield surplus, as Mike Yastrzemski would be pushed into the corner mix with Michael Conforto, Luis Matos and others. DeSclafani, meanwhile, had likely fallen out of the club’s plans as he had been injured for much of the previous two seasons and the younger Giants pitchers neared the majors.

Getting a former Cy Young winner for a couple of spare parts is a nice coup, in theory, but there are some asterisks. Ray underwent Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery in May of last year and won’t be available to them until the All-Star break, even in a best-case scenario. It’s also possible the Giants will remain on the hook for his contract, which runs through 2026. Ray can opt out after 2024 but he won’t be able to log many innings before making that decision, so he would likely have to be in great form for him to consider walking away from two years and $50MM.

In addition to the DeSclafani trade, the Giants further thinned out their rotation by sending Ross Stripling to the Athletics in early February. They got outfielder Jonah Cox in that deal but it was mostly a salary dump, as it saved them $9.25MM.

Just as Spring Training was about to begin, the Giants made a strong move to upgrade their lineup. Joc Pederson had been their primary designated hitter last year but he hit free agency and moved across the division to the Diamondbacks. The Giants replaced him by signing Jorge Soler to a three-year, $42MM deal. Soler is a streaky hitter but is one of the best power bats in the league when at his best.

He hit 48 home runs with the Royals back in 2019. That was the “juiced ball” season but that number led the American League and Kauffman Stadium is one of the hardest ballparks to hit it out of. He hit another 36 for the Marlins last year and opted out, eventually signing with the Giants. Oracle Park is also a tough venue for the long ball and no Giant has had a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds in 2004, a pretty stunning statistic. If Soler stays healthy and has one of his good years, he has a solid chance to break that streak.

As Spring Training ramped up, the Giants still hadn’t addressed their shortstop position. Though Zaidi initially said Luciano would get a chance to be the everyday guy there, the club was rumored to be looking around for other options throughout the winter. Franchise icon Brandon Crawford was out there in free agency but it seemed the Giants were ready to move on. In the last week of February, the Giants added Nick Ahmed on a minor league deal and Crawford joined the Cardinals.

He and Zaidi later spoke of the parting of ways, with Crawford expressing frustration at not coming back. A Bay Area native who grew up a Giants fan, Crawford has been synonymous with the franchise for his entire career. But Zaidi believed having such an iconic player on the bench wouldn’t be comfortable for the other players, so the club will proceed without Crawford for the first time since he was drafted in 2008.

Around the baseball world, a key storyline of the spring revolved around how many notable free agents remained unsigned in what turned out to be an incredibly slow offseason. The Giants were able to take advantage by signing third baseman Matt Chapman, who was pegged for a nine-figure deal at the start of the winter, for just three years and $54MM with opt-outs.

The Giants had J.D. Davis at the hot corner, but Chapman is a far superior defender and roughly comparable hitter. With an uncertain shortstop situation, it was a sensible swap for the club, especially at such a bargain rate.

The club then tried to shop Davis and his $6.9MM salary but found no takers. The free agent market had collapsed to such a point that solid infielders Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario each signed deals for just $1.5MM, which gave Davis little appeal at his price point. Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed if the sides go to a hearing, which Davis and the Giants had done, the player coming out victorious. But since it wasn’t guaranteed, the club was able to release him while only paying 30 days’ termination pay, which amounted to about $1.1MM.

This was obviously an unpleasant outcome for Davis, who eventually signed with the A’s for a guarantee of just $2.5MM. The unfair nature of the proceedings has seemingly been an inciting incident for the MLBPA, with players understandably upset by how things played out.

Despite all this activity surrounding the Giants, they arrived at the middle of March with the major target area of the rotation relatively unanswered. Cobb and Ray would be starting the season on the injured list, leaving the club with little certainty beyond ace Logan Webb. They had the converted reliever Hicks and then unproven young guys like Harrison, Triston Beck, Keaton Winn and Sean Hjelle. As Spring Training opened, Beck, Winn and Hjelle all battled injuries of varying degrees, highlighting the flimsiness of the group.

But they were able to take advantage of the weak free agent market once again, as they signed Blake Snell to a two-year, $62MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. Snell is the reigning National League Cy Young winner and was surely hoping for a massive nine-figure deal but was never able to land it.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty in the rotation picture but Snell makes it much stronger in the short term. And in the long term, it’s possible to imagine the season finishing with a San Francisco rotation consisting of Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb, with one spot available for Hicks, Harrison or someone else. A lot has to go right for that to happen, but it’s wonderful to dream on for now.

In the end, the offseason could hardly have played out much better for Zaidi and the Giants. As mentioned, they have been incredibly averse to long-term free agent deals. Though they have made significant offers to players like Judge, Correa, Ohtani and others, they came into this winter having never given out more than the two-year, $44MM deal for Rodon. But they were able to add two Cy Young winners, one of the game’s best defenders, one of its best sluggers and a Korean star. And they did all of that without really breaking the bank in the present or in the future. The only guys who got more than three years, Lee and Hicks, are 25 and 27 years old, respectively. They are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time since 2017, but they are not far over the line and will face modest penalties as a “first-time” payor.

They still have some questions on the pitching staff and it seems as though the light-hitting Ahmed might end up as their everyday shortstop, but a lot of talent has been added to the roster this winter. They’re in for a battle since they share a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, the reigning N.L. champion Diamondbacks and the pesky Padres, but there’s more to be excited about than there was last year or even a six weeks ago.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies reinforced their rotation with a major extension and a major re-signing, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet offseason in the City of Brotherly Love.  After making the NLCS last year, have the Phillies done enough to book a return to the World Series?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35.57MM
Total spending: $183MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

In an offseason marked by several top-tier free agents lingering on the market deep into March, Aaron Nola came off the market by mid-November.  The Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were among the teams who were at least somewhat linked to Nola, and reports suggested that Atlanta was the most fervent non-Phillies suitor.  However, Nola’s preference to remain with the Phillies led the righty to re-sign on a seven-year, $172MM pact, even though a larger offer was reportedly on the table from an unknown team.

It seems as though Philadelphia’s $172MM figure was at least close enough to this mystery offer that Nola opted to stay in a comfortable situation, and the length of the new contract could very well make Nola a Phillie for his entire career.  Chosen seventh overall by the Phils in the 2014 draft, Nola has become a true front-of-the-rotation talent, capable of delivering both big innings totals and quality results.

This isn’t to say that the deal isn’t without a few red flags.  Nola was more good than great in 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and a near-average 38.5% hard-hit ball rate.  That particular metric is important for Nola given his tendency to allow a lot of barrels, so batters have been able to tag the veteran for a lot of home runs when they’re able to truly square up on the ball.  Nola’s curveball was also just an average pitch in 2023, after years of being at least a plus offering and sometimes one of the more effective pitches in the sport.

Nola’s strikeout rate was still above average, and for the third straight season he continued to be one of baseball’s best at limiting walks.  It also wouldn’t have been easy for the Phillies to fill all of the innings that the durable Nola has brought to the rotation, not to mention his behind-the-scenes status as a clubhouse leader.  Though Philadelphia checked in with Sonny Gray as a potential alternate if Nola went elsewhere, both Nola and the Phillies preferred the familiarity of their longtime relationship.

Philadelphia’s other big rotation investment didn’t come until Spring Training, and it again involved the Phillies locking up an in-house name.  Zack Wheeler is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM contract he signed in December 2019, but he’ll now continue his Phillies tenure after signing a three-year, $126MM extension that begins with the 2025 campaign.  The new deal keeps Wheeler in the fold through his age-37 season, though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, as he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year.

Neither president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski or owner John Middleton have been very hesitant about spending, and the Nola/Wheeler contracts continue the Phillies’ simple (but effective) strategy of upgrading the roster via high-priced, name-brand talent.  The result has been an NL pennant in 2022 and an NLCS appearance in 2023, as the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in both seasons.  Even with Wheeler’s extension not going onto the books until next year, RosterResource estimates a $261.8MM tax number for the Phillies in 2024, again putting the team over not just the $237MM tax threshold but also the $257MM second penalty tier.

The tax considerations could explain why the Phillies didn’t do all that much this winter, though there’s also the basic fact that the roster is largely set.  For instance, the door seemed to close on a reunion with Rhys Hoskins when the Phillies announced that Bryce Harper would be the everyday first baseman in 2024 and beyond.  With Harper now at first base and Kyle Schwarber as the full-time DH, Hoskins (who missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL) was the odd man out, and he instead signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers.

Wheeler and Nola headline a rotation that also includes Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez, and the everyday lineup also looked more or less complete until the news broke in early February that Brandon Marsh would be sidelined for 3-4 weeks in the aftermath of arthroscopic knee surgery.  Marsh is back playing Spring Training games and should be ready for Opening Day, though it probably isn’t a coincidence that about a week after Marsh’s surgery was announced, Whit Merrifield was signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee.

Merrifield’s unusual 2023 season included a spot on the AL All-Star team, but also a brutal second-half slump that saw him hit only .212/.250/.288 over his last 196 plate appearances.  The cold streak cost Merrifield playing time in the Blue Jays’ lineup, and it wasn’t a surprise that both Merrifield and the Jays declined their ends of the veteran’s $18MM mutual option for the 2024 season.

As he enters his age-35 season, the right-handed hitting Merrifield provides some platoon depth behind the lefty-swinging Bryson Stott (at second base) and Marsh (in left field).  There’s a chance Merrifield could get more playing time in left field if Marsh is needed in center field, as while Philadelphia would love to see defensive standout Johan Rojas win the everyday center field job, Rojas has looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training.  Rojas was more than respectable (.302/.342/.430) over his first 164 big league PA in 2023, though since he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, the Phillies might choose to give Rojas a bit more time in the minors to begin the season in order to get his bat on track.

Jordan Luplow was also brought into spring camp on a minors deal, and Luplow joins David Dahl (another non-roster signing), Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave as depth options.  Pache and Cave are both out of minor league options, which creates an interesting decision for the Phils as they decide who will earn the backup outfield spot on the Opening Day roster.

Dombrowski said in December that the team would look for additions “more around the edges” of the roster, considering how the team was lacking in major question marks after Nola was re-signed.  This approach was manifested in the low-cost signings of Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard, who provide some depth to the rotation and bullpen mix.  Additionally, Max Castillo was claimed off waivers and Michael Rucker was acquired in a deal with the Cubs.

This was pretty much it as far as bullpen additions, even though the closer role seemed to open up when Craig Kimbrel left in free agency.  Philadelphia reportedly looked into Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Jakob Junis before all four pitchers signed elsewhere, and nothing much seemed to materialize between the Phils and Josh Hader, despite a lot of speculation early in the offseason that Hader was a natural fit for a team in need of ninth-inning help.

Strikeout machine Jose Alvarado now looks like the favorite for the closer’s job, though he had some injury problems in 2023 and has long struggled to limit walks.  Any of Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, or Orion Kerkering could get save chances within the somewhat fluid Phillies bullpen situation, and the team would particularly love to see the hard-throwing Kerkering emerge as a legitimate bullpen weapon.  Kerkering still only has two seasons of pro experience, however, and the rookie was sidelined for a good chunk of Spring Training due to the flu.

There are enough interesting options on hand that the Phillies might be comfortable with their bullpen for now.  However, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Phillies add another relief arm once teams start making roster cuts late in Spring Training, and Dombrowski might well seek out more high-leverage help closer to the trade deadline.

In terms of other big moves on the offseason radar, the Phils were among the most serious suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as the team reportedly offered the Japanese phenom a 12-year contract.  Yamamoto ended up signing with the Dodgers for $325MM over a 12-year term, so it seems like the Phillies at least got themselves in the ballpark even if the financial terms of their offer are still unknown.

Yamamoto’s age (25), obvious talent, and the Phillies’ desire to increase their presence in the Japanese market combined to generate the aggressive bid, as this same perfect storm didn’t exist for any other big names.  Philadelphia was only very loosely linked to the Juan Soto trade talks or to Cody Bellinger’s free agent market, and the club had some limited (and perhaps just due diligence) interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.  Since Montgomery is still without a team this close to Opening Day, the Phillies could technically still emerge as a bidder at the eleventh hour, even it doesn’t seem too likely that the Phils would offer the kind of long-term contract Montgomery was apparently still seeking as recently as two weeks ago.

The Phillies also added another year onto manager Rob Thomson’s contract, continuing the offseason’s overall “running it back” theme.  Standing pat is justifiable considering how successful Philadelphia has been in the last two seasons, and there is also some reason to believe the Phillies could be even better.  Harper is now fully healthy after two injury-marred seasons, and younger players like Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas and/or Kerkering could further emerge with more Major League playing time under their belts.  The real test will come in October when the Phillies try to take that final step towards a championship, and as presently constructed, it looks like Philadelphia should again be in contention.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers stole all the headlines this offseason, as they gave out multiple record-breaking deals, traded for an ace and did a bunch of other stuff as well.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $162.9MM (counting Ohtani’s salary as the league-adjusted $46MM; doesn’t include posting fee for Yamamoto)
Total spending: $1.096 billion (adjusting Ohtani’s guarantee to present day value of $460MM makes this number $756.4MM)

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been a powerhouse team for a long time, having won the National League West in 10 of the past 11 seasons. The one exception was 2021, when they won 106 games but somehow were one shy of a surprising 107-win Giants club.

But they still came into this winter hungry for improvements. That 11-year stretch of playoff appearances only led to one World Series title, which was in the shortened 2020 season. The 2023 season ended unpleasantly, despite the club winning 100 games and earning another division title. Their rotation was largely decimated by injuries as the season wore on and they were quickly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With the club looking to make a bold splash and this winter featuring one of the most anticipated free agents of all time, there were many who expected a pairing between the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani. In fact, it’s something that has been expected for even longer than that.

When Ohtani initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers weren’t a perfect fit since the National League did not yet have the designated hitter, which led Ohtani to pick the Angels. But the NL got the DH in 2022, which started a countdown for many people, just waiting for the two-way superstar’s free agency.

The Dodgers were obviously going to be interested but also made their intentions clear by deciding not to issue a qualifying offer to J.D. Martinez. Under normal circumstances, he would have warranted one, given his strong 33-homer campaign in 2023. But if he had accepted, it would have clogged up the designated hitter spot they wanted to put Ohtani into, so they didn’t risk it.

It probably shouldn’t have been surprising that a player as unique as Ohtani ended up having one of the most unique free agencies. From the outset, it was marked by a strange insistence on secrecy, to the point that clubs would reportedly hurt their chances of signing him if they acknowledged that they were trying to do so. Perhaps the most absurd example of this was when Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins missed the winter meetings and met with reporters via Zoom but wouldn’t tell them he was in Florida, showing Ohtani the club’s Dunedin complex.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts seemed to break protocol when he admitted that he and his club had recently met with Ohtani. Given the cloak-and-dagger nature of the Ohtani free agency and the lack of real information, it seemed genuinely possible that this would actually have a negative impact on the club’s chances of getting the deal done. There was even more worry when there were reports that Ohtani was on a plane to sign with the Blue Jays, but those eventually proved to be inaccurate. The long-awaited Ohtani-Dodgers pairing finally got done with a massive 10-year, $700MM deal.

Or did it? The unicorn player with the bizarre free agency apparently couldn’t sign a normal contract. After news of the deal landed, reports quickly emerged that put the shocking numbers into more context. Despite the $700M price tag, there was some fine print.

Ohtani will actually only make $2MM in each season of the deal and then get $68MM annually, without interest, in the 10 years following the expiration of the deal. He will still get $700MM, but over 20 years instead of 10. Deferred money reduces the present day value of the deal to $46MM annually in the eyes of the league and $43.8MM from the perspective of the MLBPA. Even with those caveats, the approximate $460MM guarantee is still the largest in MLB history. Even the lower of the two AAV numbers puts Ohtani ahead of Max Scherzer for the largest of all-time.

This was perceived by many fans as a way for the club to “dodge” the luxury tax, but MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes argued otherwise at the time. The $46MM competitive balance tax hit the Dodgers will get for Ohtani was in line with most expectations coming into the winter. The $700MM number isn’t truly real, but it’s helpful for the agents to describe it that way.

Regardless of the optics, Ohtani reportedly suggested the structure to multiple teams. The Giants and Blue Jays were willing to pay it, just like the Dodgers, but the Angels were not. The appeal from the player’s perspective is obvious. The $2MM salary is obviously paltry by baseball standards but Ohtani won’t be starving as he has millions coming in via endorsements every year. By kicking his payments down the road, he can ensure the club has more resources to put a winning team around him. And the contract reportedly has language that makes sure they use their savings towards making the club as competitive as possible.

They certainly held up their end of the bargain with the remainder of this offseason. As mentioned, the club’s rotation was snakebit last year. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin both had surgery last year and couldn’t be counted on to start 2024 healthy. Walker Buehler’s Tommy John was back in 2022 but he still missed all of 2023 and will be handled with care this year. Lance Lynn, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw all hit free agency after 2023, making starting pitching an obvious priority for the club.

Kershaw had hit free agency twice before and re-signed with the club but the Dodgers couldn’t rely on the same thing playing out this winter. Kershaw announced in early November that he had undergone shoulder surgery and wouldn’t be able to return until some point this summer. Ohtani wasn’t going to help either, as he underwent some kind of UCL surgery in September and will be limited to hitting only in 2024.

Despite already giving out a record-setting deal, the Dodgers seemed prepared for more, casting a wide net in their search for starting pitching. Throughout the winter, they were connected to high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, mid-range guys like Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Jesús Luzardo.

Their first big rotation strike came via the trade market, as the Dodgers were able to land Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. With Tampa looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers took on both Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot, sending younger players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca the other way.

Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy in his career but has pitched at an ace level when healthy. He overcame a lengthy Tommy John absence in 2023, setting a new career high with 120 major league innings, putting up a 3.53 earned run average in the process. The Dodgers were clearly not scared by the past health issues, as the deal they made with the Rays was conditional on getting an extension done with Glasnow, which they eventually did. The combination of this year’s salary and the four they added on means they are committed to him for five years and $136.5MM.

But they weren’t done there. The market around Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to get hotter and hotter as the winter nights grew darker. That was a testament not only to his incredible skills but also his age. It’s hard to find an ace in free agency but it’s almost unheard of to get a 25-year-old ace. He comes with no experience in the big leagues but a 1.82 ERA over his seven NPB seasons and little doubt about his ability to handle the show (rough debut notwithstanding).

Due to that rarity, multiple clubs were willing to go over the $300MM mark to land Yamamoto, but the Dodgers ultimately sealed it with a 12-year, $325MM deal. But since Yamamoto had been subject to the posting system, the Dodgers will also have to pay a fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Such fees are calculated as a percentage of the deal, so a massive deal means massive fees. This contract led to a $51MM posting fee for the Buffaloes, meaning the Dodgers were effectively paying $376MM to get Yamamoto. Factoring in the club’s luxury tax status means the outlay is even higher. Even before that posting fee, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher not named Ohtani.

They had one more move to remake their rotation, but it was far more modest than the Glasnow or Yamamoto acquisitions. They signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal. It was initially reported an an $11MM guarantee but was later changed to $7MM with incentives. The Dodgers apparently adjusted it down after Paxton’s physical, though they didn’t find anything to scuttle it entirely. Paxton has been oft-injured in recent years, hardly pitching at all from 2020 to 2022, but was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year.

On the position player side of things, the most surprising developments surrounded Mookie Betts. Having spent the vast majority of his career in right field, the Dodgers moved him to the middle infield last year. He came up as a second baseman and had dabbled at that position earlier in his major league career, but the club was evidently impressed enough to make him their everyday guy at the keystone coming into 2024. More on that later.

With Betts moving to the infield, there was room for additions in the outfield. Jason Heyward was re-signed to a one-year deal, but he was effectively replacing himself. He had a nice bounceback for the Dodgers in 2023, being limited to a strong-side platoon role. The Dodgers were frequently connected to Teoscar Hernandez and were able to get him to sign a one-year deal as well, adding yet another potent bat to their lineup.

With Hernandez and Heyward set to join an outfield mix with James Outman, Margot started to seem a bit unnecessary. He could platoon with Heyward but they also had Chris Taylor on hand for that. They eventually decided to send Margot to the Twins and use the $4MM they saved to sign Enrique Hernandez instead. He can also hit from the right side and play the outfield, but his ability to play the infield gave them a bit of extra cover for Betts and third baseman Max Muncy.

But the position player mix had one more twist to come in spring. The Dodgers planned on having Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 due to a knee injury, as their everyday shortstop. But he struggled with some consistency in his throws this spring, an issue he’s had in the past. The Dodgers quickly decided to flip Betts and Lux, a move that Roberts described as “permanent for now.”

This put the Dodgers in the wild position of having committed over a billion dollars this winter (kind of) but somehow ending up with a 31-year-old right fielder as their everyday shortstop. Betts briefly played the position last year, getting into 16 games. That’s already the most ever games at the position for a guy after winning multiple Gold Gloves in the outfield, per Sarah Langs of MLB, highlighting how unprecedented this experiment is.

Many fans grew tired of hearing about the Dodgers this winter, as the club was incredibly active while many others sat on their hands. But the fact is that they were doing so many interesting things that it was hard to look away. No one had ever given a free agent $500MM before, let alone $600MM or $700MM. It turns out the Dodgers didn’t really do any of those either, but the bizarre deferral structure of Ohtani’s deal was itself interesting and unprecedented. They gave the largest guarantee ever to a pitcher that isn’t a two-way player. And they gave it to a guy with no major league experience. They put their MVP candidate right fielder at shortstop.

They did all of that and more, adding multiple bats and arms to a club that has already been a dominant force for over a decade. After getting Ohtani and making all of these other moves, the expectations will be even higher from now on. For the next 10 years, the club has Ohtani on the roster and is only paying him $2MM per year, a pittance in this league. All the chips are on the table and anything short of a World Series in that time will be counted by many as a failure.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Between a new owner, a new lease at Camden Yards, and one of the offseason’s biggest trades, the Orioles made plenty of news on and off the field this winter.  Now the question is whether the reigning AL East champions can take the next step forward to challenge for a World Series title.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles entered the winter with pretty clear needs at the top of their rotation and bullpen.  Since Felix Bautista’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will sideline the closer for the entire season, the O’s targeted some of the biggest names in the free agent relief market (such as Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, and Aroldis Chapman) before finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal with Craig Kimbrel.

The veteran closer brings a possible Cooperstown-worthy resume and plenty of experience to the back to the Orioles’ pen, where Kimbrel will team with setup men Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe to hopefully get close to replicating the lockdown dominance of the Bautista-led 2023 relief corps.  Of course, some red flags are apparent — Kimbrel faded down the stretch in both 2021 and 2022, and he had a couple of ill-timed blowups when pitching for the Phillies in last year’s NLCS.  The righty is also entering his age-36 season, and is prone to allowing walks and hard contact.

An argument could be made that Baltimore could have aimed a little higher or gone with someone a bit steadier than Kimbrel, though with Bautista ostensibly returning in 2025, GM Mike Elias might not have wanted to make too lengthy of a commitment to a new reliever.  As it stands, Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee still represents the largest amount of money the O’s have given to a player since Elias took over the front office after the 2018 season.

While the Orioles’ lengthy rebuild precluded a lot of major spending, Elias continued to take a relatively measured approach to the payroll this offseason, even in the wake of a 101-win performance.  While the O’s checked in on such notable free agents as Hader or Aaron Nola, the team mostly focused on the trade market to address its pitching needs.  There were plenty of rumors linking the Orioles to top names like Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo, but amidst all these reports, Baltimore eventually landed another top trade candidate.

Corbin Burnes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last four seasons, and his acquisition instantly solves the Orioles’ desire for a frontline ace.  Since Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 campaign, the trade also represents another shorter-term move for Elias — Burnes avoided arbitration with the Brewers by agreeing to a $15,637,500 salary, making him only slightly pricier than Kimbrel.

Trading for Burnes was a clear win-now move for the O’s, and a deal made possible by the team’s seemingly bottomless minor league talent pool.  The Brewers came away with a potential shortstop of the future in Joey Ortiz, an intriguing rotation or bullpen candidate in DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (the Orioles’ selection in Competitive Balance Round A, which are the only types of picks that can be traded).  This is a pretty significant trade package, yet from Baltimore’s perspective, even a top-100 prospect like Ortiz is expendable considering how the Orioles’ infield of the future looks to already be in place.

Between Jordan Westburg, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, and soon-to-debut star prospect Jackson Holliday, the Orioles may have second base, third base, and shortstop locked up for the better part of the next decade.  This doesn’t even count Coby Mayo or Connor Norby knocking on the door of the big leagues, or incumbent utilitymen Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo still on hand as perhaps overqualified bench depth.

The outfield is also crowded.  Anthony Santander (a free agent next winter), Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays (free agents in the 2025-26 offseason) have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers pushing for playing time right now, let alone looming to eventually supplant the more experienced players as the Orioles’ starting outfield.

If the O’s were still rebuilding, it is easy to imagine a world where any of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Urias, or Mateo have been traded by now to let the kids play.  However, the Orioles are both trying to win in 2024 and not hamper the development of any of their up-and-comers.  That means someone like Stowers or Kjerstad might start the year at Triple-A in order to get regular at-bats rather than sporadic playing time in the majors, and the Orioles could use their bench spots for veterans more accustomed to part-time roles.

This could mean in-house names like Urias, Mateo, Terrin Vavra, and Ryan McKenna, or a familiar face back in the fold like Tyler Nevin (re-acquired from the Tigers in a January trade).  Baltimore also dealt for Nick Maton and signed Kolten Wong and Michael Perez to minor league deals, further adding depth just in case the young core needs a bit more seasoning.

All of this depth makes it easy to see how more trades could be coming at the deadline or earlier, once the Orioles have a better sense of their needs or which of their prospects may or may not be ready for prime time.  It isn’t out of the question that Elias could move earlier to obtain more pitching help, considering how Baltimore already has a couple of starters set to begin the season on the injured list.

Kyle Bradish emerged as the Orioles’ top hurler last year, yet his status is in question after an MRI revealed a sprain in his right UCL in February.  Bradish received a PRP injection and has been slowly building his arm up over the last five weeks, with decent progress to date but still a lot of uncertainty over when (or even if) he’ll be able to make a proper return this season.  John Means will also be sidelined for perhaps the first month of the season, as soreness in his surgically repaired elbow last October delayed Means’ offseason ramp-up work.

With two members of the projected rotation down, Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer will be joined by Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells for the time being.  Minor league signing Julio Teheran, waiver claim Tucker Davidson, trade acquisition Jonathan Heasley or Bruce Zimmermann figure to work as the top depth options before the Orioles think about dipping into their starting pitching prospect pool (i.e. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson).

Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton were on the team’s radar as shorter-term signing options, and Mike Clevinger remains unsigned as a potential one-year stopgap.  Beyond Baltimore’s flirtation with Nola, there wasn’t much of a sense that the Orioles were going to splurge on a big free agent arm, so Jordan Montgomery still doesn’t seem all that likely of a possibility even though Montgomery is still available as Opening Day nears.

The rotation picture could gain clarity once more is known about Bradish or Means’ recoveries, and things will look more stable if Rodriguez takes another step forward in his second MLB season.  However, the question remains — could the Orioles have done more to shore up their pitching staff?  Even with the prohibitive costs of pitching (either via signing or trade) in mind, adding Burnes but losing Bradish and Means more or less leaves the O’s in the same place rotation-wise as they were at the end of 2023.

It may be too soon to second-guess Elias’ decisions given that more moves could still be made, and that the roster on the whole still looks very capable of contending.  It is also very much worth noting that the Orioles have increased spending, as their projected payroll (as per RosterResource) of $96.8MM is still a modest total in comparison to the rest of the league yet also a big jump from Baltimore’s $60.9MM payroll on Opening Day 2023.

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Orioles’ season is whether or not the impending ownership change could give the front office some immediate extra spending capacity.  David Rubenstein would hardly be the first new owner to want to make a splash upon buying a team, and since the billionaire’s investment group could be fully approved to buy the Orioles within even the next few weeks, Rubenstein might well be interested in giving Elias the green light to be more aggressive at the deadline.  Boosting spending to even league-average levels would create a lot of extra spending capacity for the O’s to add talent, or (perhaps more importantly) start signing some of their cornerstone young players to extensions.

Even considering the ailing health of majority owner Peter Angelos, the legal drama between members of the Angelos family, and team chairman John Angelos’ cautionary statements about spending, it still counted as a surprise when reports emerged in January that the Orioles were being sold.  This news broke just as the O’s were finalizing a new lease agreement with state and city officials about remaining at Camden Yards, and while this new lease technically only runs for the next 15 years, at least another 15 years could be added to the deal if the franchise and Maryland officials can work out (prior to December 31, 2027) a development plan for a “ballpark village” type of project around Camden Yards.

The ownership change only cements the new era that was already dawning for the team in terms of the on-field product.  Baltimore fans had to endure a lot over the Orioles’ multi-year rebuilding period, but things couldn’t look much better for the fanbase over both the long term and in the immediate future.  The O’s look like legitimate World Series contenders even with the remaining questions in the pitching staff, and some work at the deadline might patch those few remaining holes.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates’ ongoing rebuild showed some encouraging signs last year but it didn’t prompt the front office to go out and win the offseason. They made some modest additions as their focus remains clearly on the future, but did sign another core member of their club to a sizable extension.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)
Total spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

2023 was the fifth straight losing season for the Bucs, but they at least showed some hints that maybe the rebuild was nearing its end. They started out hot and were leading the division for a time, holding that spot until the middle of June. They eventually faded and finished the year at 76-86, not too shabby, especially considering they were without shortstop Oneil Cruz for the vast majority of the season.

Some fans may have hoped for that semi-surge to be followed by an aggressive winter, but it ended up being fairly modest, at least in terms of additions. Starting pitching was a clear priority coming into the offseason after the Pittsburgh rotation posted a collective earned run average of 4.88 in 2023. That need only grew when Johan Oviedo required Tommy John surgery in November, putting him out of action for the entire 2024 season.

The Bucs seemed to cast a fairly wide net in their pursuits of starting pitching, though they were mostly connected to guys who could be had fairly cheaply. Jack Flaherty was a target and he could have perhaps been signed for a modest one-year “prove it” deal, but he eventually got it from the Tigers instead. Yariel Rodríguez and Shota Imanaga had plenty of interest but were somewhat unproven. The Bucs seemed to sniff around, but Rodríguez got a five-year, $32MM deal from the Jays, with a modest $6.4MM average annual value. There were rumors Imanaga could get $100MM, but his market softened and the Bucs got involved, though he ended up settling for four years and $53MM from the Cubs. They were also interested in the controllable pitchers of the Marlins, particularly Edward Cabrera, but nothing got done there either. Those talks carried into spring training, but Cabrera is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Whether that impacted talks isn’t known, but it’s certainly plausible.

In the end, the Pirates added a couple of veterans at a modest cost. Martín Pérez was signed to a one-year, $8MM deal,while Marco Gonzales was acquired via trade. Gonzales is making a salary of $12MM this year but will only be paid $3MM by the Pirates, through convoluted means that are explained by here by Ethan Hullihen of Bucs On Deck.

Those two could perhaps add some veteran stability to a fairly young and inexperienced rotation, but neither is coming off an especially strong season. Pérez had a 4.98 ERA as a starter for the Rangers and got bumped to the bullpen late in the year. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm after 10 starts with a 5.22 ERA.

The Pirates seemed set at catcher coming into the winter, as prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both cracked the major leagues last year. But similar to the Oviedo situation, it was reported in December that Rodríguez would need UCL surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

Less than two weeks before that news came out, the club had signed Ali Sánchez to a major league deal, perhaps indicating they already suspected the Rodríguez news was coming. Regardless, they had interest in Gary Sánchez as well but eventually added Yasmani Grandal on a modest deal to bolster the depth with Rodríguez out.

Davis didn’t catch much last year, only spending two innings behind the plate as Rodríguez handled the bulk of the work. Davis spent far more time in right field, as it seemed the organization had a bit more faith in the defensive abilities of Rodríguez. But the injury has forced Davis to don the tools of ignorance again this year. He has seemed to handle himself well in spring, both behind the dish and standing beside it, having hit .306/.381/.694. If he succeeds back there all year, the club may have a decision to make once Rodríguez is healthy, though many clubs split time between two different catchers these days.

First base was also a target, as Carlos Santana had most of the playing time there last year, but he was traded to the Brewers at the deadline. The club had some reported interest in bringing Santana back and was also connected to Josh Naylor of the Guardians, but they nabbed Rowdy Tellez to be their primary first baseman. He’s coming off a down year but hit 35 homers in 2022, so he’s a fine bounceback pickup at $3.2MM.

They also brought back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen for $5MM to serve as a designated hitter and veteran leader. He’s been quite open about his desire to continue playing in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career so it wasn’t a surprise to see the two sides link up an another one-year pact. The next home run he hits will be the 300th of his career, so Bucs fans will have a fun milestone chase early in the season.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh bolstered its bullpen with a surprising $10.5MM splash on Aroldis Chapman, which actually counts as their largest free agent deal of the winter. He should be able to lengthen the bullpen after a return to form in 2023. The Pirates will surely be happy if Chapman ends up part of a push for contention late in the year, but if that doesn’t happen, they could hope to follow the path of Kansas City. The Royals signed Chapman last year and flipped him to the Rangers at the deadline, netting Cole Ragans in return. He’s earning nearly three times as much in 2024 as he did in 2023, so he won’t be quite the bargain for trade partners this time around, but high-end relief pitching is always in demand regardless.

As the slow offseason left various players looking for jobs well into February and even into March, the Pirates were able to take advantage by signing Michael A. Taylor for a modest $4MM sum. He was reportedly looking to match Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, who each got $10.5MM, but he was one of many players who got boxed out by the drying up of spending in recent months.

The Bucs should be the beneficiary of Taylor’s poor fortune, as he’ll give them an elite defensive center fielder who will strike out a bunch but also likely pop a few home runs. By having former center fielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in the corners, they could have strong defense in all three spots with regularity.

The most significant deal of the winter was for a player already on the roster, as the Pirates signed Mitch Keller to a five-year extension worth $77MM. He already had agreed to a $5.4425MM salary for 2024, which was maintained as part of the extension, so it added four years and $71.5575MM in new money. Keller was slated for free agency after 2025, so it extended the club’s window of control by three years.

That has been the M.O. for the Bucs in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deals given out by the club since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in November of 2019 have all been extensions. Bryan Reynolds got a two-year, $13.5MM deal to avoid arbitration before eventually signing his seven-year, $100MM deal. Ke’Bryan Hayes got $70MM over eight years and now Keller is signed long-term as well. Meanwhile, they haven’t signed any free agent to a multi-year deal, with Chapman’s $10.5MM being the largest deal given on a one-year pact.

In a sense, that shows that the club has stayed the course. They have been building for the future for a long time, and their priorities are shown in that disparity of investment. Cherington said in December that he anticipated a payroll increase relative to last year, which has technically come to fruition. RosterResource lists this year’s payroll at $85MM. That’s 29th in the league, ahead of only the Athletics, but Cot’s Baseball Contracts had the Bucs at just $73MM last year.

The focus is still on the future, and the fortunes of the club will be largely be written by those already in the system. The club has shown their faith in Reynolds, Hayes and Keller as they continue to monitor Cruz, Davis, Rodríguez and Suwinski. Unproven players like Jared Triolo, Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Termarr Johnson and others could factor into the mix this year or in the near future. Skenes, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, seems likely to join Keller, Perez and Gonzales in the rotation as soon as this summer.

The Pirates are still arguably the weakest team in the National League Central. Both the Projected Standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them finishing in the basement. But the division is fairly wide open and doesn’t have a clear favorite, which means there’s a path for the Pirates if things break right, either this year or down the line.

The club will likely have a different offseason someday, when they truly feel contention is at hand. But for now, it’s been another winter of modest investment in the present and a heavy focus on the future.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews.  It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts.  Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.

Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade.  The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade.  This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023.  The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November.  Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.

Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois.  Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”

Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover.  The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package.  Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster.  It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need.  The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered.  But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits.  Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A.  Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.

The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde.  The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023.  Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation.  The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season.  This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024.  Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod.  As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”

A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero.  He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi.  The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition.  Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks.  Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.

In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop.  Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved.  All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.

In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process.  Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year.  Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.”  Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23.  Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017.  Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.

The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense.  Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado.  Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense.  Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.

On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft.  The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth.  With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move.  DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.

Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens.  New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work.  The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.

Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason.  With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter.  Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market.  Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available.  The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.

As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox.  Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease.  Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.

Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful.  RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five.  Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing.  The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.

Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025.  They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25.  Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027.  A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return.  But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.

Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital?  In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice.  As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.”  So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.

Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns.  It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence.  As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.

 

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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It’s rare for the same team to be on opposite ends of blockbuster trades within one offseason. This Padres front office isn’t afraid to break convention. San Diego was the traditional “seller” in the winter’s biggest trade as they shed a lot of money. That didn’t stop them from dealing a trio of well-regarded prospects to upgrade their rotation in a late-spring strike.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $9.35MM
Total spending: $50MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Under A.J. Preller, it’s fair to presume the Padres are in for a headline-grabbing offseason. Yet while the past few years had been defined by major acquisitions, most of this winter was about departures. Late in the 2023 season, it emerged that the Padres were planning to cut spending. That came on the heels of Diamond Sports Group abandoning their local broadcasting contract midseason and amidst reports about the Padres falling out of compliance with MLB’s debt service ratio.

San Diego had key free agents Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo; option decisions on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha which they’d decline; and Juan Soto projected for the largest arbitration salary in league history. (Hader and Snell declined qualifying offers, so the Padres landed two draft choices after the fourth round for their departures.) It was clear there’d be a lot of roster turnover. Before they could even address that, the organization needed to settle on its leadership structure. Tension mounted between Preller and manager Bob Melvin towards the end of their underwhelming season. While they made some effort to smooth the relationship going into the winter, everyone decided a break was ultimately in the organization’s best interest.

The Padres allowed Melvin to interview for and accept the managerial role with the Giants without demanding any compensation from their division rivals. They reportedly considered former Angels skipper Phil Nevin and previous Cubs manager David Ross but ultimately stayed in-house. San Diego moved Mike Shildt from an advisory position in the front office back to the dugout, giving him his second managerial opportunity at the big league level. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty also interviewed for the position. When San Diego went with Shildt instead, they let Flaherty depart to serve as Craig Counsell’s top lieutenant with the Cubs. The Padres left the position vacant for 2024.

Of course, one would be remiss to discuss the Padres’ leadership structure without mentioning Peter Seidler. The San Diego owner passed away at age 63 in the middle of November after a battle with illness. Few owners were as widely respected around the league and by their fanbase as Seidler, who consistently approved star acquisitions and ran the organization’s player payroll as high as third in the majors entering last season. This was a franchise that ranked among the league’s bottom-five spenders throughout most of the 2010s. It didn’t always work, but there was little questioning Seidler’s commitment to giving the team a chance to win. Eric Kutsenda took over as the organization’s control person.

It surely wasn’t easy for the front office to step right back into daily operations after Seidler’s death, but the calendar unfortunately didn’t afford them much time. That week, they were faced with a handful of key arbitration decisions. The Padres made the easy call to non-tender Austin Nola after a disappointing tenure in San Diego. Whether they might’ve done the same with reliever Scott Barlow won’t be known, as the Friars found a taker for the righty just before the non-tender deadline.

San Diego flipped Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. It was a one-for-one bullpen swap that saved the Friars around $6MM. De Los Santos doesn’t have the kind of swing-and-miss potential that Barlow offers and is probably better suited for middle relief, but he was a capable reliever for Cleveland over the past two seasons. Given their payroll restrictions, adding a more affordable reliever whom they control for three years was a tidy bit of business for San Diego.

Once the non-tender deadline passed, much of the league’s attention turned to two players: Shohei Ohtani and Soto. (The Padres were never serious threats for the former.) The chance for a second Soto blockbuster in less than 18 months was one of the offseason’s biggest storylines. It quickly became clear that the Yankees were the favorites. The sides pulled off the massive deal at the Winter Meetings.

San Diego packaged Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Bronx for a pitching-heavy return. They added Michael King, who excelled in a limited stint out of the New York rotation late last season. He stepped into the staff behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez have big league experience and could battle for spots at the back end of the rotation. At the time, it seemed that pitching prospect Drew Thorpe might soon join them at Petco Park. The Friars also landed Kyle Higashioka as a backup to young catcher Luis Campusano, allowing them to let Gary Sánchez depart in free agency.

Any Soto trade was unquestionably going to make the Padres worse. With so many gaps to plug on the roster, they weren’t prepared to carry him on an arbitration salary that eventually landed at $31MM. The volume approach allowed them to backfill some of the rotation depth they lost in free agency, but it subtracted two-thirds of their starting outfield. The Padres were never going to be able to replace Soto with a player of comparable quality. Yet they also opted against the traditional rebuilding return, pursuing a quantity-driven package of major league ready talent whom they control cheaply for multiple years.

Prioritizing pitching meant leaving massive questions in the outfield. The Padres never really answered them. They were linked to star KBO  center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, but it quickly became clear his asking price was going to be well beyond their comfort level. He eventually ended up with the Giants on a $113MM pact. San Diego also showed reported interest in Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor but, thus far, their only major league outfield transaction was to bring back Jurickson Profar on a $1MM deal.

Profar will likely be the Opening Day starter in left field. Tommy Pham remains unsigned and has been linked to a San Diego reunion throughout the winter. His camp and the Padres are reportedly discussing a deal in the $3-4MM range. If Pham signs, he’d bump Profar down a peg on the depth chart. That obviously won’t happen before tomorrow’s regular season opener in South Korea, though.

Whoever is in left field will share time with Fernando Tatis Jr. and 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is calling the latter directly from Double-A on the heels of a monster Spring Training. He’ll be the team’s starting center fielder despite never playing there in a minor league game. It’s a risky move borne partially out of necessity after the Padres missed on their other center field targets. At the same time, it’s not an uncharacteristic roll of the dice for an organization that hasn’t shied away from aggressively promoting its top prospects. José Azocar is likely to occupy the fourth outfield role, although minor league signee Tyler Wade could also see some time on the grass.

While San Diego’s pursuit of Lee didn’t get far, the Padres remained one of the league’s more active teams in Asia. After successfully pursuing players like Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Martinez in previous offseasons, San Diego made another pair of acquisitions from the Asian pro leagues. They added one player apiece from Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization to their bullpen.

Left-hander Yuki Matsui was the bigger signing, as he landed a surprising five-year, $28MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after years three and four. Matsui is coming off three straight sub-2.00 ERA showings with plus strikeout rates in Japan. Evaluators are split on whether his stuff translates to a late-inning role in MLB, but the Padres clearly expect him to find success. While Matsui was a little behind in camp with back tightness, he should be on the Opening Day roster and could compete with Suarez for the closer role.

Woo Suk Go signed a two-year, $4.5MM pact after a seven-year run in the KBO. He’s young and throws hard, but the modest price tag reflects a general agreement that he projects more as a middle reliever than a high-leverage arm. Go was a closer in the KBO but had inconsistent command.

The bullpen overhaul didn’t stop there. The Padres added ground-ball specialist Wandy Peralta to the middle innings. They signed the former Yankee to a four-year, $16.5MM contract that allows him to opt out after each season. The contract length and overall guarantee were above expectations, but that’s a tradeoff San Diego made to keep his annual salaries low. Peralta has been particularly effective against same-handed hitters over the past couple years, providing a matchup option for Shildt in the middle to late innings.

San Diego also made a trio of waiver claims. They snagged Jeremiah Estrada from the Cubs, brought back former top prospect Luis Patiño from the White Sox, and grabbed righty Logan Gillaspie from the Red Sox. The Padres selected Stephen Kolek out of the Mariners system in the Rule 5 draft. They might not be able to keep everyone from that group. Patiño is out of minor league options and seems likely to be designated for assignment, as he wasn’t included on San Diego’s travel group to Seoul. Kolek can’t be sent down because of his Rule 5 status. Pedro Avila is out of options himself.

Even if the Padres move on from Patiño, they could have five or six new faces in the relief corps. Matsui, Go, De Los Santos, Peralta and Estrada all seem ticketed for key roles. In addition to the free agent departures of Hader, Martinez and Luis García, the Padres subtracted a couple relievers in trade. They flipped Ray Kerr to the Braves to get Atlanta to take on $4MM of Matt Carpenter’s underwater deal. Steven Wilson seemed ticketed for a middle relief spot as recently as last week, but he was an ancillary part of a late-offseason stunner.

Trade talk surrounding Dylan Cease had quieted going into Spring Training. That changed last week, as Chicago reengaged with teams like the Rangers and Yankees in an effort to move the righty before Opening Day. The Padres were initially viewed as more of a peripheral team in the Cease market, but Preller and his staff pushed back in for another star player.

Thorpe’s stay in the organization lasted all of a few months. The key prospect received in the Soto trade wound up headlining a Cease package that also included upper minors righty Jairo Iriarte, Low-A outfield prospect Samuel Zavala, and Wilson. Cease steps into the upper half of the rotation and adds a third established arm alongside Darvish and Musgrove. King slides into the fourth spot, leaving one season-opening role available for Brito, Vásquez, Avila or Matt Waldron.

San Diego dealt a trio of quality but not top-tier prospects and a decent reliever with four years of club control. Cease is making an $8MM salary that fit within their reduced budget. He’s eligible for arbitration once more. Even if he doesn’t recapture the form that made him Cy Young runner-up in 2022, Cease has been exceptionally durable over the past few seasons. He owns a 3.58 ERA going back to the start of 2020 and has a power arsenal that misses bats at an above-average rate. Cease should be a fixture in the San Diego rotation for the next two years, although it’d be foolish to count out San Diego pivoting and putting him back on the market this summer or next offseason if the team doesn’t perform up to expectations.

The one area of the roster that was not dramatically overhauled, at least in terms of personnel, was the infield. The Padres floated Jake Cronenworth in talks but didn’t find a trade partner. That’s no surprise, as he’s coming off a down season and entering the first year of the seven-year extension that he signed last spring. Kim was a much more in-demand trade target heading into the final season of his four-year deal.

The Padres decided not to move him, at least not to another team. San Diego is pushing Kim back up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, however. Xander Bogaerts is flipping to the other side of the bag, as he’ll become a second baseman for the first time in his career. It was always expected that Bogaerts would move off shortstop fairly early into his 11-year free agent deal, although few would’ve predicted that to happen after only one season. Manny Machado will eventually slot back in at third base. He’s likely to be limited to DH duty for the first couple weeks as he continues working back from last fall’s elbow surgery.

San Diego has Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten as short-term options to cover third base, but they may turn to yet another prospect. Former 13th-round pick Graham Pauley has dramatically elevated his stock in pro ball. He’s coming off a .308/.393/.539 batting line between High-A and Double-A. The Duke product continued to rake this spring, turning in a .314/.400/.486 slash over 16 games. The Padres included Pauley in their travel group to Seoul, suggesting they’re considering jumping him directly from Double-A, just as they plan to do with Merrill.

The “offseason” work might not be 100% complete as they try to push a Pham deal across the finish line, but the Padres are a few hours from kicking off the regular season. They’ll do so with a team that looks a lot different than the one that finished 2023. Most outside expectations aren’t as high as they were at this time last year, but the late push for Cease shows that the organization still expects to compete for a playoff spot. Plenty of top-end talent remains. The question is whether the roster is deep enough to hold up over a 162-game stretch.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners’ front office operated under tight payroll restrictions from ownership in light of uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract this offseason. That didn’t stop “Trader Jerry” Dipoto, the team’s president of baseball operations, from aggressively overhauling the roster with a series of trades colored by monetary implications. (This year’s Mariners Review might include the lengthiest “trades and waiver claims” section I’ve ever written in a decade of doing these reviews.)

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $17.3MM
Total spend: $29.3MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Waiver Claims

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It became clear fairly early in the offseason that despite the Mariners’ recent success, including the end of their two-decade playoff drought in 2022, payroll wouldn’t be rising much in 2024. Like so many clubs around the league, their offseason dealings were colored by uncertainty surrounding the team’s television rights. While Seattle wasn’t planning to cut payroll like many other clubs around the game, the Seattle Times reported in early December that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office received a smaller budget than anticipated from ownership.

That didn’t stop plenty of speculation regarding Seattle-area native Blake Snell, but a big free agent splash like that never seemed likely given the front office’s apparent budgetary restrictions. Instead, Dipoto went with a familiar approach: operating primarily on the trade market. Even by his own standards, this was an offseason for the ages in terms of wheeling and dealing. The Mariners made a staggering 12 trades over the course of their offseason.

Perhaps most remarkable about that progression of trades isn’t the sheer volume but rather the fact that Seattle held onto its entire crop of vaunted young pitchers. Entering the offseason, it seemed quite likely that one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock could be dealt as the team looked to bolster other areas of the roster. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and there was less of it available this season than in years past. The Mariners, facing needs at designated hitter, second base, third base and in the outfield, could very likely have moved a young starter and filled multiple holes in one fell swoop.

That wasn’t meant to be, however. Dipoto would reveal that he unsurprisingly received considerable interest in his young pitchers but “never liked the way it looked” before adding that holding onto the entire group as always “Plan A.”

Even if the plan was to hold onto that group, changes were clearly needed. Dipoto hinted at a possible retooling early in the winter suggesting that he hoped add some more contact-oriented bats to the roster in the wake of last year’s prodigious strikeout totals. While the Mariners achieved this to some extent, that desire certainly didn’t inform all of their offseason moves, as many of the team’s new acquisitions still strike out at alarming rates.

Eugenio Suarez was the first domino to fall in this regard. He’d been a solid contributor for the Mariners in each of the two prior seasons but struck out in 31% of his plate appearances along the way and saw his power output dip in 2023. Suarez led the American League in strikeouts in both 2022 and 2023. A substantial dip in his defensive grades could well cause his value to plummet, as he was effectively a league-average bat in ’23 (102 wRC+). His contact rate on pitches in the zone sat more than five percentage points shy of league-average, and on pitches off the plate, it was nearly 13 percentage points shy of the mean. Suarez is making just enough contact and playing just sharp enough defense to remain an above-average regular, but his margin for error is thinning.

In return for Suarez, the Mariners got one of the game’s hardest-throwing young relievers, Carlos Vargas, and a backup catcher who strikes out at a staggering 35% clip: Seby Zavala. While Zavala was acquired for his glove, not his bat, it was a bit curious to see the team cite a desire to improve contact skills and then acquire such a whiff-heavy backstop.  Cal Raleigh will work a larger workload than most starting catchers, but Zavala’s whiffs are still prodigious. For a Mariners club that is as good as any in the game — maybe better than any other — at maximizing bullpen performance, getting a power arm like Vargas is particularly intriguing. Still, the $12MM in cost savings in this deal was surely a motivating factor.

Replacing Suarez at the hot corner will be fellow trade pickup Luis Urias and holdover Josh Rojas, whom the M’s acquired last summer in exchange for Paul Sewald (a move that, in retrospect, perhaps foreshadowed the current offseason’s payroll restrictions, when considering Sewald’s arbitration salary). Urias was a buy-low grab who posted a solid .244/.320/.446 slash in 2021-22 with the Brewers before an injury-ruined ’23 season. In hindsight, the Mariners might regret committing $5MM to him so early, as veteran infielders like Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario signed for a year and $1.5MM apiece late in spring training, but their price tags falling to such extreme levels was generally unforeseeable.

The Suarez trade irked Mariners fans, as it seemed clearly financially motivated to at least some extent, but the trade of Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales smacked even more heavily of a salary dump. The M’s acquired a former second-rounder, Cole Phillips, who’d yet to pitch professionally due to injury and a change-of-scenery former prospect in Jackson Kowar. Both have since undergone Tommy John surgery.

Kelenic was a symbol of hope during the Mariners’ last rebuild — touted as a potential outfield cornerstone alongside current face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez. Things simply haven’t panned out that way, however. Kelenic has looked flummoxed by MLB pitching on a repeated basis, particularly fellow lefties. He had a hot start in 2023 but faded immensely before breaking his foot when he kicked a water cooler following a strikeout in a key situation. The Mariners shed $24.25MM of payroll in that deal and received little in return. But dealing Kelenic and his 31.7% strikeout rate did mesh with Dipoto’s goal of improving the team’s contact.

Between the departures of Suarez, Kelenic and free agent Teoscar Hernandez (who signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal), the M’s bid adieu to a trio who combined for 1788 plate appearances and each struck out in 31% of their plate appearances (or more). In trading Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales and White, the Mariners also trimmed nearly $37MM off the long-term payroll.

Those weren’t the only cost-driven deals of the winter, however. Dipoto shipped the final three seasons of Robbie Ray’s $115MM contract to the Giants in a trade bringing back old friend Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners know just how productive Haniger can be when at his best but are also plenty familiar with his susceptibility to injuries and strikeouts. As with Garver, he’s not a panacea for the team’s contact woes, but Haniger has never punched out at a clip higher than 2019’s 28.6%. He was at 28.4% in 2023 while battling through an oblique strain, a back strain and another fluky injury: a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a pitch.

Outside of last year, Haniger has been an above-average offensive player in every full season of his career. He’ll probably never return to his peak 2017-18 form, but even 2022’s .246/.308/.429 slash was 13% better than average, per wRC+. The Mariners would likely be fine with that level of output, and anything extra would be a bonus.

The Haniger/DeSclafani/Ray trade also set the stage for one of the Mariners’ biggest acquisitions of the offseason. It took several months to come together, but the M’s and Twins finally made good on what was a clear on-paper match from a trade partner standpoint. Seattle acquired switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins, sending back DeSclafani to provide some pitching depth, righty Justin Topa to beef up the Minnesota bullpen, and a pair of prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Gonzalez is particularly well-regarded, landing on a handful of top-100 lists this winter. Bowen joined the back end of the Twins’ top 30 prospects. The Mariners included the $6MM of salary relief the Giants provided for DeSclafani and kicked in another $2MM, leaving the Twins on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary.

The Mariners weakened their bullpen, thinned out their rotation depth a bit and traded one of their best outfield prospects to get the trade done. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it worked for both parties. Seattle’s pitching is a strength, while second base was a glaring need. Mariners second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 last season. Only four teams (Giants, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox) saw their second basemen turn in a worse wRC+ mark than Seattle’s collective 75.

Going from that dearth of production to Polanco, who’s slashed .267/.337/.458 over his past 2362 plate appearances in the majors (117 wRC+) is a massive upgrade. Like Haniger, he’s had some recent injury issues, but Polanco is a balanced switch-hitter who’s signed for just $10.5MM in 2024 with a $12MM club option for the 2025 season. Knee and hamstring injuries limited him to 80 games last year, but he’s a clearly above-average hitter and capable defender at second base. His 18.2% career strikeout rate should help the Mariners’ contact goals, though it’s worth noting he did whiff in a career-high 25.7% of his plate appearances last year.

Sending Topa to Minnesota in that trade on the heels of his 2023 breakout — 69 innings, 23 holds, 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 56.7% grounder rate — may also have served as a catalyst for one of the Mariners’ most uncharacteristic moves in recent memory. Seattle has thrived at turning minor league signees, waiver pickups and other little-noticed acquisitions into impact relievers. Topa himself is an example of it. They’ve become so prominent at doing so that the team has even coined the “Steckenrider Bucket” term — a nod to them signing Drew Steckenrider to a minor league pact a few years back and enjoying a dominant season of setup work from the journeyman righty.

Their February acquisition of White Sox closer Gregory Santos, however, marked the rare instance in which the Mariners paid a steep price in a trade for a reliever. It’s easy enough to see why Santos appealed to them. He pitched 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball in front of a terrible defense, striking out 22.8% of his opponents against a 5.9% walk rate. Santos kept the ball on the ground at a 52.5% clip, averaged a blistering 98.8 mph on his heater, induced swinging strikes (13.4%) and chases off the plate (34.9%) at high clips, and regularly avoided dangerous contact (34.9% hard-hit rate, 1% barrel rate). Beyond that, he’s controllable for five more years and not arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season.

Still, sending not only prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa, but also a Competitive Balance draft pick that’ll slot in at 69th overall this summer, marked a divergence from the Mariners’ typical methods. Perhaps the M’s grew weary of mining for hidden gems on an annual basis. Perhaps they simply (and quite understandably) loved Santos’ arm and were enamored of the idea of pairing him with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in the long term. Whatever the rationale, it gives the Mariners a potential three-headed bullpen monster for the ages. Both Brash and Santos are banged up and will begin the season on the injured list, but neither is believed to be facing a monthslong absence. At some point in the not-too-distant future, that trio will be locking down leads for manager Scott Servais. It’s a fun group on which to dream.

Polanco’s acquisition also helped replenish some of the depth the Mariners lost when trading Jose Caballero to the Rays in exchange for slugger Luke Raley. The 27-year-old Caballero debuted and usurped Kolten Wong as the starting second baseman, though he faded quite a bit after a hot start. Flipping him for Raley adds a considerable influx of left-handed power to the Seattle lineup — Raley homered 19 times in just 406 plate appearances and posted a stout .241 ISO — but does also set the club back in terms of contact skills. Raley fanned at a 31.5% rate in 2023. He hasn’t hit lefties at all in his brief MLB career (.206/.257/.324), so he’ll likely be platooned with Dylan Moore or serve as a bench bat, if the club prefers to give hot-hitting Dominic Canzone the first crack at the larger portion of the left field job. Either way, Raley’s out of options, so he’ll be on the roster.

We’re deep into this look back at the Seattle offseason but haven’t even yet touched on the team’s free agent dealings. That’s both a testament to the astonishing volume of trades and also a reflection of a fairly modest offseason in terms of free agent activity. However, the Mariners did shed a good chunk of money in the trades of Suarez, Kelenic/White/Gonzales, and Ray — as much as $43MM overall. That money has since been largely reinvested into the roster.

To replace Hernandez, Seattle signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. Garver comes with his own strikeout concerns, but not to the extent of the players he’ll effectively be replacing. He’s fanned in 25.6% of his career plate appearances (24.2% over the past two seasons in Texas) and, more importantly, has quietly been one of the best-hitting catchers in the game when healthy.

Seattle will use Garver as the primary DH, though he could potentially suit up for a few games behind the plate depending on the health of Raleigh and Zavala. This was a bat-driven move, however. Over the past three seasons, Garver has hit .249/.347/.479 (128 wRC+) with 42 homers in 802 plate appearances. He’s a career .272/.377/.509 hitter against lefties. He’s been injured often, doesn’t run well and fans more than the average hitter, so there are some concerns. But the Mariners will hope regular DH at-bats keep him in the lineup more frequently — and if they’re right, he has more than enough bat to fill that role.

The aforementioned injuries to Santos, Brash and Kowar in camp proved too much even for a deep Seattle bullpen to withstand without making any noise. As those three relievers were banged up, the Mariners turned back to the free agent market and signed Ryne Stanek — one of the best remaining relievers — to a one-year, $4MM deal. He’s coming off a down season in terms of ERA and strikeout rate, but Stanek posted the first sub-10% walk rate of his career in 2023 and is yet another power-armed reliever with a fastball that sits north of 98 mph. Each of Munoz, Brash and Santos top 98 mph on average, as well.

Seattle’s only other free agent pickup, Austin Voth, is more in line with their traditional bullpen acquisitions. He inked a $1.3MM deal and will open the season as a swingman. The 31-year-old once looked like a potential long-term rotation option with the Nationals but never found consistency in D.C. He was designated for assignment in 2022, thrived down the stretch after landing in Baltimore (3.04 ERA in 22 appearances, including 17 starts), but couldn’t replicate that success in 2023 (5.19 ERA in 34 2/3 innings). The Mariners will be his third club, and if they can get Voth right, he’ll be controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The Mariners overhauled their lineup, essentially swapping out Hernandez, Suarez, Kelenic, Caballero, Wong, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy and AJ Pollock for a group including Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Raley, Urias and Zavala. It’s not a perfect lineup still, the core of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France — who’ll ideally have a bounceback season — was always going to be the engine driving a contending Mariners club. The new group might not represent as dramatic a reduction in strikeouts as the front office hoped, but this collection of hitters should indeed put the ball in play more frequently.

And for all that turnover, the Mariners made it work without parting with any of their vaunted young starting pitchers or radically increasing payroll. Trading Miller or Woo for a bat, then signing Snell and Matt Chapman might have been a more straightforward means of operating, but those types of expenditures were never in the cards, given ownership’s budget.

The Mariners kept their core in tact, replaced a good bit of any lost production from the departures of Suarez and Hernandez, and did so while operating within a pretty tight set of financial restrictions. They may not be AL West favorites, but this group should be competitive again and the lineup looks solid, even if it’s a wildly different group than they trotted out a year ago. The biggest acquisitions — Polanco, Garver, Santos — are all signed/controlled through at least 2025 as well, making this whirlwind offseason one that’ll impact them beyond the current campaign.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies won 59 games last season and made almost no significant additions. They can expect some internal improvements, but this should be one of the worst teams in the National League.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $3MM
Total spending: $3.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Rockies got a jump on their offseason just before it began. While the Rox were long since eliminated from playoff contention, the regular season wasn’t quite over when Colorado signed Charlie Blackmon to a one-year extension on September 29. That the Rox wanted to keep the career-long member of the organization for a 14th season wasn’t surprising. The price point, on the other hand, was unexpected. Colorado guaranteed Blackmon $13MM, an odd decision considering he’d been pushed mostly to designated hitter and has been a good, not great, offensive player over the past few years.

Paying an above-market price to prevent Blackmon from getting to free agency seemed a questionable move on day one. It looks even worse considering how the offseason transpired. Colorado’s front office can be forgiven for not anticipating the free agent market for hitters of Blackmon’s ilk would be down. Yet it’s tough to justify in the context of apparent organization payroll restrictions. Pending contract selections of players who are in camp on minor league deals, Blackmon’s salary accounts for more than half the financial commitments that Colorado made this winter.

No team did less in free agency. The Rox’s only major league signings were backup catcher Jacob Stallings and depth starter Dakota Hudson. Both players had been non-tendered by their previous teams. The Rockies announced the signings, which were worth $3.5MM combined, in tandem on January 5. Stallings is a fine backup catcher who had previous success when paired with Colorado’s current starter, Elías Díaz, in Pittsburgh. Hudson keeps the ball on the ground and had some early success with the Cardinals before falling off. He’s an alright rebound target, but his acquisition isn’t going to dramatically change the pitching staff.

The lack of free agent spending might be less notable had Colorado made significant moves on the trade market. They made one trade all winter. That was a buy-low flier on righty Cal Quantrill, who’ll get a spot in the season-opening rotation. Colorado took on a fairly significant $6.55MM arbitration salary in what was largely a financially motivated swap for the Guardians. The Rox sent former seventh-round pick Kody Huff, who projects as a depth catcher, back to Cleveland.

It’s a solid addition. Quantrill didn’t have much success in 2023, but that could be attributable to recurring shoulder issues. The former eighth overall pick is only a season removed from turning in a 3.38 ERA over a full set of 32 starts. Even at his best, Quantrill hasn’t missed many bats. He has plus command and has shown the ability to mostly stay off barrels, though. Colorado can control him through 2025 via arbitration. For little more than a willingness to tender him a contract, he’s a worthwhile flier for a team that entered the winter with almost no starting pitching.

The problem is that Quantrill and Hudson were the only rotation options whom Colorado added to the 40-man roster. It leaves them with arguably the worst group of starting pitchers in the majors. Kyle Freeland is reliable but has never come close to replicating his sterling 2018 season, when he turned in a 2.85 ERA over 33 starts. His stuff has regressed in recent seasons and he allowed more than five earned runs per nine a year ago. Freeland’s velocity has spiked this spring, which is promising, but he’s still miscast as a staff ace.

Beyond him, it’s a host of rebound candidates or development hopefuls. Quantrill will occupy a spot in the middle of the rotation. So will lefty Austin Gomber, who has been inconsistent but showed reasonably well in the second half of last season. Fourth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA above 6.00 in 32 MLB appearances. Hudson and Peter Lambert (who owns a 6.47 career ERA) are competing for the fifth spot. It’s far from an inspiring group.

Things could look a bit better in 2025, when Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela should be back after Tommy John rehabs. For the upcoming season, skipper Bud Black could have a hard time getting enough innings out of this group. That’d put a lot of strain on a bullpen that, while similarly thin, has some promise towards the back end.

Colorado can hope for better out of Tyler Kinley after a healthy offseason. The righty was brilliant early in 2022 before elbow surgery knocked him out for more than a calendar year. While he struggled late last season, it’s understandable if he hadn’t shaken off the rust. He’s competing with hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence for the ninth inning.

Colorado grabbed long man Jalen Beeks off waivers from the Rays. He posted an ERA near six last season but had a 2.80 ERA with an above-average 28% strikeout rate as recently as 2022. The Rox took righty Anthony Molina from the Tampa Bay system in the Rule 5 draft. Right-hander Jake Bird returns after tying for the MLB lead with 84 1/3 relief innings a year ago. He posted a solid 4.27 ERA behind a 54.2% ground-ball percentage. Colorado lost Brent Suter to the Reds in free agency, maybe opening a spot in the Opening Day bullpen for a minor league signee like John Curtiss or Geoff Hartlieb.

While the Rockies were surprisingly quiet in sitting out the pitching market, they did even less to address the position player group. Beyond Stallings, the only major league pickup was old friend Sam Hilliard, whom Colorado claimed off waivers in Spring Training. He’s probably competing with minor league signee Bradley Zimmer for a bench job. Hilliard and Zimmer each hit left-handed and are capable of playing center field.

Adding a player of that ilk was a goal for the front office. Starting center fielder Brenton Doyle hits from the right side. He’s an excellent defender but turned in a .203/.250/.353 batting line as a rookie. Right fielder Sean Bouchard is also a right-handed batter. While the UCLA product has posted excellent offensive numbers in a small big league sample, he soon turns 28 and has all of 48 MLB games under his belt. It’s no surprise the Rox wanted another option in case either Doyle or Bouchard stumbles. There’s not as much question in left field, where Nolan Jones had a strong campaign and looks like one of the organization’s most promising players.

Blackmon could occasionally see corner outfield work but will primarily DH. Kris Bryant is moving to first base for the most part as Colorado tries to keep their $182MM signee healthier. Other than that, the starting infield is unchanged. Brendan Rodgers will be back at second base, hopefully with better results than he managed late last summer after returning from shoulder surgery.

Ryan McMahon and Ezequiel Tovar are an excellent defensive tandem on the left side. The Rox will want to see more from the latter offensively. Tovar was a top prospect but had a middling rookie season as a hitter, largely thanks to a very aggressive approach. Still just 22, it’s possible he develops a bit more selectivity in his second extended look at big league pitching.

Stallings replaces Austin Wynns and Brian Serven as the backup catcher behind Díaz. The out-of-options Elehuris Montero should crack the MLB roster as a corner infielder and bench bat. The Rockies non-tendered utilityman Harold Castro, likely clearing a path for Alan Trejo to get back to the big leagues as a depth middle infielder. It’s a bit surprising that Colorado didn’t take a non-roster flier on a veteran who could back up Rodgers and Tovar. Perhaps that’s something they’ll look to address as players trigger opt-outs from minor league deals with other teams on the eve of Opening Day.

That may not be the team’s most pressing goal of the next couple weeks. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reported over the weekend that the Rockies and Black were in discussions about another contract extension. The Rox have extended the veteran skipper on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons. He’s signed through 2024, which will be his eighth season at the helm. Colorado is among the sport’s most loyal organizations and has stuck by Black, who certainly hasn’t been given the most talented rosters with which to work.

Aside from a possible managerial extension, it seems fair to presume any late-spring moves would be minor in nature. The Rockies were content to run back the vast majority of last year’s team, which lost a franchise-record 103 games. That’s a reflection of a payroll saddled with underwater investments in Bryant, Freeland and Senzatela (in addition to the $10MM which they still owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade). The Rox were also hit by the broadcasting challenges facing a large portion of the league. AT&T Sports abandoned their local TV deal at the end of last season, cutting off a source of revenue that reportedly paid the team around $57MM last year. MLB is distributing the team’s games in-market for 2024.

Beyond the revenue challenges, the Rockies still haven’t shown a clear path to putting a competitive roster on the field. That might be easier to visualize later in the season if prospects like Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, Drew Romo and Zac Veen get to the big leagues. 2022 college draftee Sterlin Thompson might not be much further off. The Rockies took a flier on Chase Dollander with last year’s ninth overall selection to add the highest-ceiling pitching prospect they’ve had in the organization in some time. They’ll pick third in the upcoming draft and appear headed for high odds of another lottery pick in 2025.

That’s probably of diminishing solace for a fanbase that has seen the team finish in fourth or fifth in the NL West five years running. On paper, there’s a huge gap between Colorado and everyone else in their division yet again. Aside from Todd Helton’s Hall of Fame induction, this will probably be another tough summer for Rockies fans.

 

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. Despite that, it ended up being an offseason focused on changing and planning for the future.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $5MM
Total spending: $5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Marlins got to pop some champagne last year but it quickly went flat. They were eliminated by the Phillies, swept out of the Wild Card series by losing 4-1 on October 3 and then 7-1 on October 4. Shortly thereafter, on October 6, it was reported that Sandy Alcántara would require Tommy John surgery, putting their ace out of action for the 2024 season.

But it was nonetheless a refreshing season for the club. The Marlins hadn’t even had a winning record in a full season since 2009, so to get over .500 and squeeze out a couple of playoff games was a nice step forward, relatively speaking. That’s why it registered as a surprise that the winter began with a front office shakeup. By mid-October, it was reported that the club and general manager Kim Ng would be parting ways.

Ng, who had been in that job since November of 2020, was on an expiring contract. There was a mutual option for 2024 but she was reportedly informed by owner Bruce Sherman that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work over her. The club triggered their end of the option but she decided not to trigger hers, an understandable move since it would essentially amount to a demotion after dragging the club into the postseason.

It was later reported that Sherman had concerns about the organization’s reputation for drafting and developing, particularly on the position player side, as the club has often had strong pitching staffs in recent years but the lineup has largely been built via trade. Despite many losing seasons in recent memory and plenty of high draft picks, on top of the club getting extra picks and strong international bonus pools as a revenue-sharing recipient, the club’s farm is not held in high esteem. Baseball America currently ranks them 27th out of the 30 teams in the league, FanGraphs 26th, The Athletic 28th while MLB Pipeline and ESPN both have them at 29th.

As such, change was the name of the game in Miami. Ng was eventually replaced by Peter Bendix, who had been working across the state for the Rays. Given that Tampa Bay has a strong reputation for consistently churning out young talent with limited resources, it seems Miami is hoping to bring some of that magic down south. But that wasn’t the only move in the suit-and-tie section, as scouting director D.J. Svihlik was let go, former player and coach Gabe Kapler was brought aboard to fill a front office role as assistant general manager, Rachel Balkovec was hired as director of player management, Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new vice-president of player personnel and Sara Goodrum as director of special projects.

In contrast to that flurry of changes, the roster hasn’t had a lot of significant turnover compared to last year. Arguably, the most notable change is that slugger Jorge Soler will no longer be a part of the club. He hit 36 home runs last year and decided to opt out and retry free agency, leaving $13MM on the table. That ended up being a wise move, as he secured a three-year, $42MM deal from the Giants. The Marlins didn’t receive any compensation for his departure as they opted not to issue him a $20.325MM qualifying offer.

Soler told reporters in January that the Marlins had not reached out to him about a reunion. There was some contradictory reporting later that month that suggested the club was indeed talking to Soler about coming back, but after signing with the Giants he again affirmed that he had no contact with the club over the winter.

It seems the club had little appetite on spending money to address the designated hitter vacancy. They’ve recently been connected to J.D. Martinez, who remains unsigned, but the odds of him landing in Miami seem low.

The lack of interest in free agency wasn’t limited to the DH spot, as the club spent close to nothing this winter. They came into the offseason with clear holes at the shortstop and catcher positions but didn’t attack those spots with much gusto.

Christian Bethancourt sort of fell into their laps as the Rays, the former club of Bendix, put the catcher and several other players on waivers in the hopes of cutting costs. The Guardians won the claim but later signed Austin Hedges and flipped Bethancourt to the Marlins for cash. Bethancourt and the Fish eventually avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $2.05MM.

Bethancourt is generally considered a solid defender, particularly with the running game, but his offense is inconsistent. He hit .252/.283/.409 in 2022 but dropped to .225/.254/.381 last year, his wRC+ going from 100 to 74. Regardless, he has a decent chance of being better than Jacob Stallings, who is also renowned for his glovework but hit just .210/.287/.290 with Miami over the past two seasons.

At shortstop, they were connected to various names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed and Gio Urshela, but the position remained unaddressed until late February. The offseason had slowed considerably and plenty of free agents remained unsigned at that point, allowing the Marlins to take a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson.

He is coming off a dreadful season, having hit just one home run with a diminished batting average and lesser defensive metrics as well. But he was a solid everyday shortstop for many years prior to that and will be a bargain if he can turn things around. A knee injury suffered early in last year’s campaign perhaps offers an explanation for his poor results, as his sprint speed was down compared to previous seasons.

From 2017 to 2021, he posted double-digit home run totals, even in the shortened 2020 season. He got to double-digit steals in each of those full seasons as well. In 2022, he missed time due to injuries and only got into 79 games but still hit .301/.339/.395 for a wRC+ of 110. FanGraphs considered him to be worth at least two wins above replacement in each year from 2018 to 2022 and in 2016 as well.

There was also a lot of trade chatter around the club’s starting rotation, as has become the norm in recent years. But the club’s long-standing rotation surplus has been diminished, which made a trade less likely. The club traded away Pablo López last offseason as part of the deal to bring in Luis Arráez, and the aforementioned Tommy John surgery for Alcántara subtracted another hugely important arm.

That didn’t stop clubs from sniffing around, as Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera were the subject of trade rumors this winter. As of right now, the Fish have decided to hold onto the pitchers they have, which is probably for the best. Both Garrett and Cabrera are dealing with shoulder injuries here in camp and are questionable for Opening Day, while Eury Pérez is likely to open the season the shelf as he battles a broken fingernail and elbow soreness.

Most of those issues appear to be fairly minor and there’s nothing to suggest any of them is facing a lengthy absence, but the depth is going to be tested early on. Had the club decided to pull the trigger on a Luzardo deal, the picture would have looked even worse. Long-time reliever A.J. Puk has been stretched out and it seems like the injuries could give him plenty of runway to return to a starting gig, something that he did as a prospect.

In the end, the club will be going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster to last year, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good thing. Despite making the playoffs, the club actually had a -57 run differential last year, putting them in the bottom 10 of major league teams. They had an incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, allowing them to go 84-78 despite an expected win-loss of 74-88, a tough feat to repeat with consistency. That’s particularly true with a pair of notable subtractions in the bullpen. Puk figures to move to the starting staff, while the Fish flipped Steven Okert to the Twins for utility player Nick Gordon early in camp.

Soler will be gone, with Avisaíl García perhaps picking up his at-bats if he can stay healthy. Full seasons from last year’s deadline pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger could also factor in for some more thump in the lineup. Joey Wendle is out as the regular shortstop and Anderson would be an upgrade if he puts 2023 behind him. Bethancourt will likely be a bit better than Stallings behind the dish. Losing Alcántara hurts but perhaps it won’t be so bad if the club can get steps forward from younger pitchers like Puk, Pérez, Cabrera, Max Meyer or Trevor Rogers.

Ultimately, the future of the franchise will likely be written behind the scenes, as the club seems determined to overhaul its systems for evaluating and developing younger players. As a franchise that generally doesn’t spend much, it’s important for the organization to provide productive players from within, as those players are more affordable than veteran free agents.

That could lead to significant changes down the road but the 2024 club isn’t substantially different from the 2023 version. Whether that can lead to another strong season in a tough National League East remains to be seen.

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