Rangers Considering Qualifying Offer For Martin Perez
The Rangers and left-hander Martin Perez have voiced hope of working out an extension since this summer, but with the team’s five-day exclusive negotiation window nearing its end, a multi-year deal isn’t close, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Texas is “likely” to make a qualifying offer to Perez if a multi-year deal can’t be agreed upon, Morosi adds.
A $19.65MM qualifying offer for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable not long ago, but the 31-year-old lefty parlayed his one-year, $4MM Rangers reunion into a legitimate case for a multi-year deal in free agency (and, thus, for a possible QO). Perez ranked tenth among all big league pitchers with 196 1/3 innings pitched in 2022, and his career-best 2.89 ERA ranked 14th among qualified starting pitchers (and 23rd among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched).
Perez’s breakout comes on the heels of a five-year stretch that saw him pitch to a 5.05 ERA in 611 2/3 big league innings for three different teams (Rangers, Twins, Red Sox). Despite persistently lackluster results, he continued to receive Major League deals in free agency, inking one-year pacts with the Twins, Red Sox and Rangers along the way. That, coupled with Perez’s longtime standing as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects (albeit more than a decade ago), suggested that teams see a bit more to him than his rudimentary numbers might otherwise indicate.
In 2022, Perez at last made good on those repeated shows of faith, but the reasons for his breakout are more subtle than other pitching breakouts we’ve seen in recent years. Perez didn’t add a lethal new breaking pitch, nor did he enjoy a pronounced spike in his velocity.
Rather, Perez made alterations to the same five-pitch mix on which he’s relied for some time now. This season’s 36.9% usage rate on his sinker was his highest since his last run with the Rangers in 2018. His 27.7% usage rate on his changeup was a career-high — but only by a matter of a couple percentage points over his 2020-21 levels. Perez has largely scrapped his four-seamer (6.5%) and curveball (3.5%), using them as show-me offerings that complement a heavier three-pitch reliance on his sinker, changeup and a cutter he implemented with the Twins in 2019. Neither the four-seamer nor the curveball, however, were prominently used pitches for Perez in recent seasons anyhow.
The biggest contributing factors to Perez’s success in 2022 might be ones that teams have a hard time buying into. His 0.50 HR/9 mark was miles better than his career 1.07 mark (and, particularly better than the 1.39 rate he’d yielded from 2018-21). Perez’s 77% strand rate is a hefty eight percentage points higher than his career norm. Add in the fact that he’ll turn 32 next year and again look to his modest track record prior to 2022, and there are enough red flags that Perez would seem likely to be ce capped at a three-year deal in free agency.
Granted, a three-year deal — even one at a lower rate than the qualifying offer — could still guarantee Perez quite a bit more than he’d earn by accepting a one-year commitment. That’ll be the question that he and his representatives at Octagon have to weigh; is it worth forgoing a guaranteed $19.65MM to lock that might be more in the $12-13MM range over a three-year term? Would a team even offer such a deal, knowing it’d also have to punt a draft pick (or multiple picks) in order to sign Perez?
Conversely, accepting the one-year term has its own risk-reward benefits. Repeating his 2022 excellence (or even approximating it) and returning to the market with a stellar two-year platform and without the burden of a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career — would set Perez up for a much larger deal than he could expect to command this winter. On the other hand, an injury or reversion to his 2018-21 form could potentially cost him $10-20MM over what he might get on a three-year deal.
Just where the two parties stand isn’t yet clear, but Perez has made no secret of his hope to remain in Texas long-term. “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent,” the left-hander said back in July before adding: No — make it 300 percent.” Whether that exuberance manifests in a deal — and the extent to which the Rangers could be posturing in an effort to push Perez closer to a deal — will become clearer Thursday when qualifying offer decisions are formally due.
Locking in Perez, if he were to accept a qualifying offer, at $19.65MM would push the Rangers’ projected payroll to about $133MM, not including pre-arbitration players (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That would already be within $10MM of 2022’s Opening Day mark of $142MM, but the Rangers have taken payroll as high as $173MM in the past (2017) — and that was before they opened a new ballpark. General manager Chris Young has already plainly stated that the team’s payroll will increase in 2023, so there’s little reason to view a potential $19.65MM salary for Perez as any kind of burden that would hinder them from making further additions.
Latest On Rangers, Martin Perez
Both during and after Martin Perez‘s bounce-back season, the veteran left-hander and the Rangers shared mutual interest in a potential contract extension. The two sides have met for negotiations, and while no deal has yet emerged, Rangers GM Chris Young told the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant that “we continue to have good conversations. We’re hopeful of getting something done, but we’re considering various options, including the qualifying offer. We understand that Martín will have value on the free agent market.”
Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to issue qualifying offers (a one-year, $19.65MM deal) to any eligible free agents. Perez fits the bill for eligibility, as a player who has never received a QO in the past, and who spent the entire 2022 season with one team. If a free agent rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, his former team would then receive a compensatory draft pick — in the Rangers’ case, that pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, so a pick around 75th and 80th overall.
That extra draft selection would be particularly useful for a Texas club that lost picks for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien (who both rejected QOs) last winter in free agency, and who might very well be prepared to lose more picks for other qualifying-offer free agents this offseason. The Rangers are expected to continue being aggressive as they look to finally get back into contention, and any number big names could be on the radar in Young’s first winter running the front office.
That said, starting pitching is the Rangers’ most glaring need, so a reunion with Perez could well be more valuable in the short term than the bigger-term value of a compensatory draft pick. If Perez did accept the one-year qualifying offer, nothing prevents the two sides from continuing to discuss a multi-year deal. Back in the 2019-20 offseason, Jose Abreu accepted the QO from the White Sox, and shortly thereafter signed a new extension that added two additional years beyond his commitment to the 2020 campaign.
These are some of the reasons that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco listed Perez as a borderline possibility in his recent preview of the qualifying-offer market, as both Perez and the Rangers face some interesting pros and cons regarding the QO. As Franco noted, Perez’s underlying metrics didn’t reveal any huge difference between Perez’s 2022 season and the southpaw’s more inconsistent past seasons. If the Rangers think some regression is coming, they just might not value Perez at the $19.65MM price point. While the Rangers would naturally be offering him more total dollars over the course of a multi-year arrangement, spreading out that cost over at least two seasons might be more palatable from the team’s perspective, especially if Texas is planning to start spending closer to the luxury tax threshold in the next year or two.
$19.65MM would easily represent the biggest single-season salary of Perez’s career, and he could opt to accept the QO simply to cash in on his comeback season. However, with almost $36MM earned over 11 Major League seasons, Perez has already banked quite a bit of financial security. Coming off four straight one-year contracts and entering his age-32 season, Perez might be looking for more stability at this point in his career, and might prefer a multi-year contract to a one-year pact, even at the higher $19.65MM price point of a qualifying offer.
Once that five-day period after the World Series ends, free agency officially opens to the entire league, and the Rangers lose their exclusive negotiating rights with Perez. The deadline for players to decide on accepting or rejecting qualifying offers doesn’t come until 10 days after the opening of free agency, giving Perez more time to ponder his choice if Texas did opt to issue the QO.
AL Notes: Verdugo, Mike Maddux, Rays’ Coaching Shuffle
Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has floated Alex Verdugo‘s name as a potential trade candidate this offseason. Verdugo, age-26, is coming off a season in which he regressed on all fronts of his game. From 2021 to 2022, Verdugo’s wRC+ dipped from 107 to 103, all of the figures in his slash decreased (.289/.351/.426 to .280/.328/.405), he lost .2 ft/s in sprint speed, and went from +1 DRS in 2021 to -4 DRS in 2022. Cotillo adds that according to a source, Red Sox brass were frustrated with his decision to bulk up in the offseason, a choice Verdugo made with the intention of hitting for more power. As evident by his decreased slugging and the fact that his weight has seemingly slowed him down on the bases and in the outfield, the choice to get bigger appears to have hindered Verdugo’s development more than it has helped him.
Speculation regarding a potential Verdugo trade comes as the Red Sox are in need of some help in the outfield. As currently constructed, Verdugo and Kiké Hernandez are Boston’s only outfield locks. Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran are decent depth options, but don’t provide as much thump as external options perhaps would, and a Verdugo-Hernandez-Refsnyder/Duran combo would leave Boston’s outfield lacking in offensive firepower. If the Red Sox do trade Verdugo, it would probably come after Boston goes out and gets someone on the free agent market or via trade to lock down a corner outfield spot. Verdugo could fetch the Sox a decent return, and may be flipped to improve Boston’s bullpen, which struggled in 2022. With Verdugo set for a pay raise in his second year of arbitration, it will not be entirely surprising if Chaim Bloom decides to move on from one of the centerpieces of Boston’s return from the Mookie Betts trade.
Some other news from around the AL:
- Mike Maddux is interested in rejoining the Rangers as their pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Rangers fired Doug Mathis and re-assigned Brendan Sagara, who had served as co-pitching coaches for 2022, less than twenty-four hours after the end of the 2023 season. Maddux previously served as Rangers pitching coach from 2009 to 2015, and recently left his post as pitching coach of the Cardinals. Grant notes that Maddux lives in the Dallas area, adding that the Rangers could pair a veteran coach, like Maddux, with someone else who is “more in tune with biomechanics and the art of pitch design” to co-lead the Rangers staff.
- Brady Williams, manager of Triple-A Durham for the Rays, will be promoted to big league staff as part of the fall out from the Royals’ managerial hiring of former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With Quatraro out, third base coach Rodney Linares is expected to become the new bench coach. It is unclear as to what role Williams will assume with the Rays in what will be his first opportunity to coach in the big leagues. Williams has spent his entire coaching career within the Rays organization, managing at Short-Season Hudson Valley, Single-A Bowling Green, Advanced-A Charlotte, and Double-A Montgomery, as well as Durham before getting the call to the majors.
Rangers In Contact With Former Royals GM Dayton Moore
Rangers general manager Chris Young has acknowledged he’s been in contact with former Royals general manager Dayton Moore and “would welcome” the opportunity to work with him, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that industry sources have continued to link Moore with the Rangers. Young pitched for the Royals between 2015-17 and won the World Series while Moore was GM there.
Moore began his front office career as a scout for the Braves, and worked his way up within that organization before the Royals hired him to be their GM in 2006. He held that position until 2021, rebuilding a roster that lost 100 games in his first season and went to the World Series in 2014 and 2015, when they won their second championship. He survived a change of ownership in 2019, and the Royals promoted him to president of baseball operations in earlier this year, but he was fired in September. After a number of years of rebuilding after their championship season, the Royals had looked to have taken a step forward in 2021 winning 74 games, but they fell back again in 2022 and wound up with just 65 wins.
It’s unclear what role the Rangers would have for Moore. Young stated they did not plan to hire a general manager below him, and Grant speculates that a senior advisor position seems most likely. If he does join, Moore would join a Rangers team trying to break out of a lengthy rebuild, having gone 68-94 in 2022 for their sixth-straight losing season.
Joe Barlow Undergoes Minor Wrist Surgery
Rangers reliever Joe Barlow has undergone a minor surgery to separate two tendons in his right wrist, according to Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. Barlow is expected to be ready by spring training. The issue contributed to the blister issues that affected the right hander throughout the season, and landed him on the IL twice.
An eleventh round pick in the 2016 draft, Barlow threw 35 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2022, pitching to a 3.86 ERA. That was a decent drop from his rookie campaign in 2021, when Barlow pitched to a 1.55 ERA over 29 innings, though the blister problems may well have played a significant part in that. While Barlow’s walk rate remained steady, his strikeout rate dipped (24.3% to 19.2%) and his home run rate increased (0.6 HR/9 to 1.3 HR/9).
He had earned the team’s closer role to start the campaign, and converted 13 of 17 save opportunities, but was demoted from the role shortly before landing on the IL in July. The Rangers will hope the surgery alleviates those blister problems, and allows Barlow to return to being a strong contributor out of their bullpen.
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions
The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).
With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.
Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.
Locks
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Edwin Díaz (Mets)
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.
Possible Candidates
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.
Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.
Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.
One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.
- Mitch Haniger (Mariners)
Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.
Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.
- Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)
The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.
Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.
That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.
If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.
Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.
- Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.
Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.
- Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.
Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.
Longshots
- Mike Clevinger (Padres)
Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.
- Zach Eflin (Phillies)
Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.
- Sean Manaea (Padres)
San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.
- Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)
Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox)
Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.
Ineligible
- José Abreu (White Sox)
- Josh Bell (Padres)
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
- Carlos Correa (Twins)
- Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
- Justin Verlander (Astros)
All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ‘previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.
Rangers Hire Bruce Bochy As Manager
The Rangers have hired Bruce Bochy as the club’s next manager, announcing that Bochy has signed a three-year contract.
There was increased speculation in recent days linking Bochy to the job, especially when Rangers GM Chris Young (who played under Bochy on the 2006 Padres) visited the veteran manager at his home in Nashville, rather than a formal interview. Interim Rangers manager Tony Beasley was the only other candidate known to receive an interview, further adding to the idea that the team had narrowed its focus towards bringing Bochy back to the dugout after three years away from the game.
In the team’s official press release, Bochy said he is “incredibly excited to be joining the Texas Rangers. Over the last several days, I’ve had extensive conversations with Chris Young and other individuals in the organization, and I had the chance to meet with [co-owner] Ray Davis. Their vision and commitment to putting together a club that can contend and win year in and year out is impressive, and I became convinced I wanted to be a part of that. If I was going to return to managing, it had to be the right situation. I strongly believe that to be the case with the Rangers, and I can’t wait to get started.”
Bochy brings 25 years of experience as a Major League skipper, managing the Padres from 1995-2006 and then the Giants from 2007-2019. During his long career, the 67-year-old Bochy has overseen rebuilding clubs, contenders, and teams that took dips in performance and then returned to contention — there have been enough ebbs and flows that Bochy actually has a career losing record, at 2003-2029.
However, Bochy’s resume also includes some major successes. The Giants won three World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014 under Bochy’s leadership, as the “Even Year” mini-dynasty brought the organization back to championship glory for the first time since 1954. (Ironically, the 2010 Giants defeated the Rangers in the Series.) Bochy also managed another NL pennant winner in the 1998 Padres, which marked the last time that San Diego reached the World Series.
The hire represents a change in direction for the Rangers, as the club tended to hire first-time managers when Jon Daniels was in charge of baseball operations. (Interim manager Don Wakamatsu ran the team for 10 games in 2018, and was the only one of the last six Texas managers to have any previous MLB experience as a skipper.) Of course, Daniels was himself fired in August, shortly after ex-manager Chris Woodward was also let go.
Daniels’ firing reportedly even caught Young by surprise, as Young suddenly found himself in charge of an organization that is eager to start winning. Texas spent big last winter in signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, and while the team itself felt 2023 might be a more realistic target date for a return to contention, the 2022 club didn’t show much progress in posting a 68-94 record. This clearly wasn’t good enough for Davis and the Rangers’ ownership group, who didn’t even wait until the end of the season before overhauling the front office.
With Texas sitting at six consecutive losing seasons, there is certainly pressure on Young and Bochy to start delivering some better results in 2023. The Rangers are again expected to be aggressive this winter, whether that manifests itself as more splashy free agent signings, or trades for proven veterans.
The Royals, White Sox, and Marlins are now the only teams looking to fill managerial vacancies. In addition to Bochy’s hiring, the Blue Jays (John Schneider), Angels (Phil Nevin), and Phillies (Rob Thomson) all officially signed their interim skippers from 2022 for the full-time positions.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rangers Expected To Pursue Carlos Rodón In Free Agency
The Rangers will be looking to add some pitching this offseason and evidently aren’t ruling out a run at the top of the market. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the club is planning a “hard push” for left-hander Carlos Rodón.
Rodón, 30 in December, isn’t technically a free agent just yet. Prior to the 2022 campaign, he signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants. However, that deal allows Rodón to opt-out after the first year of the deal, which he is widely expected to do. The only reason he had to settle for a short-term deal in the first place was because of health concerns.
Rodón only threw 42 1/3 innings combined over 2019 and 2020 due to various injuries. In 2021, he was healthy enough to get to 132 2/3 frames on the year, but seemed to run out of gas as the season went along. Due to those durability concerns, he settled for a short pact with the Giants, but one that would allow him to return to the open market as long as he pitched a minimum of 110 innings.
That plan has gone exactly as envisioned for the southpaw, as he stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and logging a personal-best 178 innings. The added quantity didn’t subtract from the quality either. He registered a 2.88 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the second-highest such tally among all MLB pitchers this year, trailing only Aaron Nola. Based on that excellent campaign, he’s sure to opt out of the $22.5MM remaining on his deal and return to the open market.
While that strong showing means Rodón will become a free agent, it also means he will get paid. He figures to be at the top of the free agent starting pitching market, alongside fellow opt-out holders Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. Those other two hurlers are older than Rodón and will be limited to shorter contracts with high average annual values, something akin to the Max Scherzer contract from last year. Rodón, on the other hand, will be more analogous to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Ray and Gausman were both free agents a year ago, with Ray going into his age-30 season like Rodón, while Gausman was going into his age-31 campaign. Rodón has a case that he’s as good as, or perhaps better than, both of them. Here are their platform years…
- Rodón: 178 innings, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 34.1% ground ball rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 2.88 ERA, 2.83 SIERA, 2.25 FIP, 6.2 fWAR.
- Ray: 193 1/3 innings, 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 37.2% ground ball rate, 15.9% HR/FB, 2.84 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.9 fWAR.
- Gausman: 192 innings, 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 41.9% ground ball rate, 11.3% HR/FB, 2.81 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, 3.00 FIP, 4.8 fWAR.
Rodón issues slightly more walks but also got more strikeouts and allowed far fewer home runs. Though the ERAs are very close, advanced metrics prefer Rodón’s profile and give him the nod. Teams interested in signing Rodón won’t look just at his most recent season, of course, with his past injuries still counting for something. However, Ray and Gausman also had warts on their respective resumes, with Ray not pitching so well over 2018-2020 and Gausman struggling in 2019.
Ray was given a qualifying offer a year ago but Gausman was ineligible as he had already received one in his career. Both pitchers ended up receiving fairly similar contracts, as Ray signed with the Mariners for $115MM over five years, while Gausman signed with the Blue Jays for $110MM, also over five years. Like Ray, Rodón will receive and reject a qualifying offer, though it shouldn’t have a significant effect on his market.
For the Rangers, they spent big on free agency last year, giving huge deals to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Though those two players had fine seasons, the team still disappointed, largely due to their pitching. The team’s starters registered a 4.63 ERA, ranking them 25th out of the 30 MLB teams. Advanced metrics like FIP and SIERA weren’t much kinder, coming in at 4.42 and 4.36, respectively. That’s part of the reason why the club ended up going 68-94 on the year.
One of the few pitchers to perform well for the Rangers this year was Martín Pérez, though he’s slated for free agency. There’s apparently some mutual interest in a reunion for next year, though nothing is set in stone there yet. That leaves the Rangers with a rotation consisting of Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and a few holes. There are some internal candidates to fill those holes, though none of them had strong campaigns in 2022. Glenn Otto, Cole Ragans, Taylor Hearn and Spencer Howard each made at least eight starts for the Rangers in 2022, though all three of them posted ERAs around 5.00 or higher.
Improving the rotation for 2023 is a fairly sensible move for the Rangers as they look to put together a more competitive squad going forward. General manager Chris Young has indicated that the club will increase payroll this year, which will apparently allow them to consider spending at the very top of the free agent pitching market. The club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $142MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $99MM, per Roster Resource, though that figure doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players or a $6MM option for Jose LeClerc. That LeClerc option and the arb class should get the Rangers up to around $115MM or so, leaving almost $30MM to work with before they get to their 2022 number. How much they actually have to spend will depend how much higher the payroll is expected to climb this year.
The Rangers will surely have competition for Rodón’s services, with just about every team with designs on contention looking to upgrade their starting rotation. Since he will be one of the best hurlers available, he figures to be quite popular this winter. The Giants have already expressed an interest in keeping him in San Francisco, for instance. Whether the Rangers ultimately sign him specifically or not, it is likely exciting news for fans of the club that they are willing to pair last year’s spending spree on position players by being similarly aggressive on the pitching front this year.
Rangers GM Chris Young Meets With Bruce Bochy
Bruce Bochy has been frequently mentioned as a possible candidate to be the Rangers’ next manager, and some possible progress in that direction may have taken place yesterday, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reports that Bochy met with Rangers GM Chris Young. The meeting took place in Bochy’s hometown of Nashville, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Young was seen on a flight to Nashville on Wednesday.
It is perhaps incorrect to consider the meeting as a proper interview, in the sense of how most managerial candidates are usually conducted. “It is not clear if Bochy is interested in officially interviewing for the job with the Rangers’ search committee,” Grant writes, but it’s safe to assume Bochy and Young discussed the possibility of the World Series-winning skipper taking over in the dugout. In fact, such a meeting might be indicative of Bochy’s standing, with Grant noting that Bochy “is widely considered the frontrunner for the job.”
Interim manager Tony Beasley is the only candidate known to have interviewed thus far, and while any number of popular coaches or ex-managers could yet emerge in the search, hiring a manager with the 67-year-old Bochy’s track record might be a preferred direction for a Rangers organization that is eager to start winning. Last offseason’s spending splurge promised at least some improvement, yet as Texas struggled to a 68-94 record this season, longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and former manager Chris Woodward were both fired in August. Daniels’ departure put Young in charge of baseball operations, and faced his first managerial hire, it makes sense that Young might turn to a familiar face — Bochy managed Young when the former right-hander pitched for the Padres in 2006.
Over 25 seasons as manager of the Padres and Giants, Bochy had his share of lean years, as evidenced by a 2003-2029 career record that dips under the .500 mark. However, the peaks were as high as could be, as Bochy led San Francisco to World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014, making Bochy one of only 10 managers in history with at least three Series championships.
Bochy semi-retired following the 2019 season, as while he has consistently remained open to the idea of a potential return, Bochy wanted to take at least the 2020 season off before deciding his next move. That retirement has now lasted for three seasons, though he has also acted as a special adviser to the Giants during that time.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
The Rangers spent half a billion dollars last winter and still lost 94 games in 2022. The focus was always more on the 2023 season than the 2022 campaign, given the timeline of the team’s top prospects. Still, ownership likely expected better results, as evidenced by the surprising August dismissal of president of baseball operations Jon Daniels — who’d been the third-longest-tenured baseball ops leader in the game. It’s now general manager Chris Young’s ship to steer.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corey Seager, SS: $287.5MM through 2031
- Marcus Semien, 2B: $150MM through 2028
- Jon Gray, RHP: $41MM through 2025
- Brad Miller, INF/OF: $4MM through 2023
2023 commitments: $80MM
Total long-term commitments: $482.5MM
Option Decisions
- Jose Leclerc, RHP: $6MM club option for 2023 with a $750K buyout (contract also contains $6.25MM club option for 2024)
- Kole Calhoun, OF: $5.5MM club option for 2023 (no buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Player (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Mitch Garver (5.045): $4.2MM
- Brett Martin (3.151): $1.5MM
- Taylor Hearn (3.125): $1.7MM
- Dennis Santana (3.095): $1.1MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.041): $1MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (2.145): $4.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Martin, Santana
Free Agents
With Young installed as the baseball operations leader, the Rangers don’t need to go through a time-consuming search for a new front office boss. However, Young’s first order of business will be to determine whether interim manager Tony Beasley, who stepped up when manager Chris Woodward was fired (just two days before Daniels), is right for the permanent job. The 55-year-old Beasley’s time with the Rangers organization predates Young by years; Young, in fact, was still active as a player and won a World Series ring with the Royals in 2015 while Beasley was just getting started as a Rangers coach.
Given his eight-year stint on the Rangers’ staff, Beasley will likely have a role of some sort offered to him, even if he’s not tabbed as the long-term skipper. It’s common, however, for a newly minted general manager or president of baseball operations to want to bring in his own field staff. Young has already interviewed Beasley, but he’ll presumably be just one of several candidates.
Whether it’s Beasley or an outside hire, the new manager and Young will be tasked with finding a new pitching coach, as co-pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Brendan Sagara were ousted earlier this month. As with any managerial change — particularly one on the heels of a disappointing season — it’s possible the switch could bring about further turnover on the coaching staff.
As far as the roster is concerned, left-hander Martin Perez’s future is the first piece of the offseason puzzle for Young and his staff to consider. Originally signed by the Rangers more than a decade ago, the now-31-year-old Perez ranked as one of the game’s top overall prospects while rising through the minor league ranks. He had a solid, if unspectacular rookie campaign as a 22-year-old, and the organization saw enough to lock Perez up on a four-year extension with multiple club options.
As is too often the case with pitchers, injuries set in and quickly derailed the promising start to Perez’s career. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014, missed most of the 2014-15 seasons as a result, and upon returning settled in as a fifth starter — never recreating the 3.62 ERA that led to a sixth-place Rookie of the Year finish for him in 2013. Perez bounced from Texas, to Minnesota, to Boston, soaking up innings at the back of the rotation and generally beginning to look the part of a journeyman.
A one-year, $4MM reunion with Texas last offseason was met with a collective eye roll by many longtime Rangers fans, but Perez not only rebounded — he turned in far and away the best season of his career. Leaning more heavily on his changeup, Perez made 32 starts and piled up 196 1/3 innings with career-best marks in ERA (2.89), strikeout rate (20.6%), FIP (3.27) and Statcast’s “expected” ERA (3.59) — among other categories. Along the way, both he and Young publicly expressed interest in working out an extension, and the two parties are set to meet this week to discuss just that. Given Perez’s strong desire to remain in place and the Rangers’ arguably stronger need for reliable pitching, it seems quite possible that Perez won’t even reach the open market.
Even if the Rangers are able to secure a new contract with Perez — which would surely be a multi-year deal at a much heftier price than this year’s $4MM rate — that’ll just be the beginning of the team’s offseason quest for pitching. Re-signing Perez will give the club some direly needed dependable innings, but even an optimistic projection of Perez’s 2023-24 seasons would bake in some regression from this year’s peak performance. It’s sensible to view Perez as a No. 3/4 starter, but there’s a need for higher-impact arms to lead the starting staff, with or without Perez.
At the moment, right-hander Jon Gray is the only clearly above-average starting pitcher on the Texas staff. Signed to a four-year, $56MM contract last winter, Gray made 24 starts and pitched to a 3.96 ERA through 127 1/3 innings, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against a strong 7.5% walk rate. He had three brief IL stints, all unrelated to his arm (blister, knee strain, oblique strain), but was a solid performer with even better secondary metrics (3.80 FIP, 3.59 xERA, 3.46 SIERA).
Right-hander Dane Dunning, acquired two years ago in the trade that sent Lance Lynn to the White Sox, has proven a capable back-of-the-rotation arm, pitching to a 4.48 ERA in 271 frames since the trade. Both Dunning’s strikeout and walk rate are a bit worse than league average, though he offsets some of that with a very strong 53.6% grounder rate. So long as the hip surgery that ended Dunning’s season doesn’t impact him moving forward, he can be slotted into the fourth or fifth spot on the starting staff.
Righty Glenn Otto and lefties Taylor Hearn and Cole Ragans were the only other Rangers pitchers to work 40 or more innings out of the rotation this season, but the results were lacking. Hearn, who finished the year with a 5.13 ERA in 100 innings, might look like a non-tender candidate at first glance but posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 41 innings as a reliever. That figures to be his role moving forward. Otto made 27 starts with a 4.64 ERA but more concerning under-the-hood numbers (18.2% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate, 5.21 FIP). Ragans posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings with just a 15.5% strikeout rate.
Suffice it to say, the Rangers have a clear, pressing need for both innings and, more importantly, for a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. The free-agent market this winter features several such arms, and it stands to reason that the rumors connecting longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to his hometown Rangers will again swirl this winter. For the bulk of the 2021-22 offseason, it was believed that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, allowing him to live in his Dallas-area home, commute to the park and spend more time with his wife and four young children.
Beyond Kershaw, the market will also include names like Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, all of whom will opt out of their current contracts and return to the open market. Verlander and deGrom might prefer to sign with surefire contenders, but Rodon will be hitting the market in search of the first long-term deal of his career. If the Rangers are willing to put forth another nine-figure offer to lure a marquee free agent, he’s a viable target. Alternatively, Texas seems like a logical candidate to pursue star Japanese righty Kodai Senga, who boasts a 2.39 ERA over his past four NPB seasons, features a triple-digit heater, and is expected to be available to MLB clubs this winter.
That might seem unfathomable to some onlookers after the aggressive manner in which the Rangers spent last year, but despite doling out a half-billion dollars to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ payroll outlook is relatively clean. Texas has just $80MM in contractual guarantees in 2023 and one of the smallest arbitration classes in MLB. By 2024, they have just $74MM on the books, and because each of the Gray, Seager and Semien contracts were slightly front-loaded, those commitments won’t be quite as cumbersome in their later stages as the typical free-agent deal (which is oftentimes backloaded).
The Rangers ran a payroll of more than $142MM this season and have previously taken that number to nearly $175MM. Between that history of spending and the fact they’re still in the early years of a new stadium, it stands to reason that the Rangers will be able to spend aggressively this winter, even after last year’s spending spree. Young, in fact, has already publicly stated that owner Ray Davis has given the green light to increase payroll with the specific focus of improving the pitching staff.
If this feels like a lot of focus on the rotation thus far, well… it is. That’s due both to the acuteness of the need and also due to the fact that the Rangers’ roster is perhaps more rounded than one might expect of a 68-win team. Picking up Jose Leclerc’s $6MM option is an easy call after he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 2.83 ERA in 47 2/3 innings. He’ll be joined by fellow Tommy John returnee Jonathan Hernandez, 2022 team saves leader Joe Barlow, the aforementioned Hearn and lefty Brock Burke, who had one of the most quietly dominant rookie showings in recent memory: 82 1/3 innings, 1.97 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.
Certainly, there’s room to add to the relief corps. Journeyman Matt Moore, like Perez, returned for a second stint in Texas this past season and (also like Perez) posted one of the finest seasons of his career. Moore, another once-vaunted starting pitching prospect who never fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, broke out as a successful high-leverage reliever this season, pitching 74 innings of 1.95 ERA ball. As with Perez, there’s good reason for the Rangers to want him back, but Moore should have no shortage of interest in free agency. Whether it’s Moore or another veteran, it’s fair to expect Young & Co. to bring in some reinforcements in the ‘pen.
Turning to the lineup, things are mostly set. Seager and Semien will, of course, form the middle-infield duo. Former Rays prospect Nathaniel Lowe turned in a second half for the ages, elevating his stock from quality regular to potential All-Star. Lowe hit .339/.399/.566 following the All-Star break, and while his poor defensive ratings could portend an eventual move to designated hitter, he’s going to rack up as many plate appearances as possible.
Top prospect Josh Jung got a late-season look at third base, and although he struggled in 102 plate appearances, there’s not much left for him to prove in Triple-A. Jung missed most of the season following shoulder surgery but beat his originally projected recovery timeline by a notable margin and returned with a flourish in Triple-A Round Rock. He’s still appeared in just 58 total Triple-A games, so perhaps the organization will want him to spend a bit more time there, but Jung’s .316/.389/.598 batting line at that level doesn’t suggest there’s too much more minor league seasoning required.
Behind the plate, the Rangers entrusted Jonah Heim with the lion’s share of the workload and figure to do so again in 2022. While his .227/.298/.399 batting line isn’t going to win him any awards, Heim smacked 16 home runs and graded out as one of MLB’s top defensive catchers. Former Twins catcher Mitch Garver, the presumptive regular on Opening Day, missed most of the season with a flexor strain that eventually required surgery. He should be healthy again in 2023, but Garver has more than enough bat to mix in as a designated hitter while shouldering a lesser portion of the catching workload than Heim.
Former top prospect Sam Huff gives the Rangers the option of carrying three catching options on the big league roster, and former Royals prospect Meibrys Viloria is also still on the 40-man roster after a strong year in Triple-A — though he’ll be out of options next year.
The window is open for the Rangers to add a veteran corner infield/designated hitter option, but there’s enough depth that they shouldn’t deem it an absolute need. A veteran catcher on a non-roster deal — particularly if Viloria doesn’t hold his 40-man spot — could also be an option. It’s possible Kevin Plawecki will fill this role; Beasley praised Plawecki’s clubhouse presence when explaining the team’s rationale for bringing in a recently released pending free agent with under two weeks remaining in the season.
More broadly, however, if there’s a clear spot in the lineup where the Rangers could invest, it’s in the outfield. Adolis Garcia has cemented his spot in the outfield mix since being acquired from the Cardinals (for cash) prior to the 2021 season, belting 56 homers and swiping 41 bases while posting standout defensive metrics in both center field and right field. The Rangers would surely prefer an improvement on his .293 OBP in that time, but Garcia’s blend of power, speed and defense have generally offset that deficiency.
Elsewhere in the outfield, however, things are more open. Leody Taveras had a decent showing in center field, and fleet-footed rookie Bubba Thompson stole 18 bases despite tallying just 181 plate appearances. That said, Thompson hit only .265/.302/.312, and even that below-average output (77 wRC+) included a grisly 30.9% strikeout rate while being buoyed by a .389 BABIP he’s unlikely to sustain. Taveras’ .344 BABIP mark isn’t as suspect, but if it dips even slightly, his already tepid offense could become untenable.
There are other options on the roster, including 25-year-old Josh Smith, 27-year-old Nick Solak and 28-year-old Eli White. Smith, however, didn’t replicate his strong Triple-A numbers in the Majors. Solak will be out of minor league options next year and might well have played his way off the 40-man roster, whether it be via non-tender or trade. (He did have a solid showing in Round Rock.) White profiles best as a fourth outfielder.
If the Rangers prefer to find an outfield upgrade on the free-agent market, there’s no shortage of options. Brandon Nimmo headlines center field options, but Garcia’s defensive prowess — plus the presence of Taveras — don’t box the Rangers into searching for a center fielder only. Corner options range from clear multi-year candidates like Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger to potentially shorter-term veterans like Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley. There’s enough of an outfield need and enough spending capacity to warrant an obligatory Aaron Judge mention, but it’s hard to envision Judge realistically landing in Texas with such a pronounced need for pitching and with last year’s Seager/Semien mega-deals still being so fresh.
The alternate route for the Rangers to explore, be it for outfield or pitching help, is the trade market. Texas has a quality farm from which to deal, ranking sixth on Baseball America’s midseason ranking of MLB’s minor league systems. Given the need for pitching, one would imagine it’d be hard to deal top prospects/former first-round picks like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn. That said, the Rangers still have plenty of position prospects who are blocked long-term on the big league roster and/or who are far enough from the Majors that Young and his staff would consider dealing them in an effort to put a winner on the field now. The aforementioned Smith, outfielder Evan Carter, infielder Ezequiel Duran, and infielders Luisangel Acuna and Justin Foscue would all hold varying levels of value.
Certainly, there’s more than enough value in the Texas system to acquire a controllable outfielder, but the Rangers are also deep enough in minor league talent they can make a compelling offer for virtually any starting pitcher that hits the trade market. A lot will need to go right in 2023 for Texas to reverse course, but this is a team that already ranked eighth in the Majors in home runs (198) and 12th in runs scored (707). There are some organic improvements to the offense on the horizon, and Young will now try to pull the right strings with the pitching staff and in the outfield to position Texas as a surprise postseason contender in 2023.