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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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For the second straight year, the Cardinals overcame a lackluster offense to reach the postseason, though 2020 also saw the club emerge from a widespread COVID-19 outbreak.  St. Louis now faces some tough decisions on veteran cornerstones, while also figuring out how to make further needed upgrades despite a potential lack of payroll flexibility.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $103.5MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $51.75MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $21MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $20.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $16.5MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $12MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $12MM through 2021 (club option vested into a guaranteed deal)
  • Kwang Hyun Kim, SP: $4MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $12.5MM club option for 2021 ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the plus side of the payroll equation, the Cardinals don’t have a big arbitration class, and they have quite a few major contributors who are either just becoming arb-eligible or are still in their pre-arb years.  The released Brett Cecil’s contract will come off the books and the Yadier Molina/Adam Wainwright free agent duo represents $25MM in salary, so the Cards could have some money to play with this winter.

The question is, however, whether these savings will be reinvested into payroll.  While St. Louis has a lot of inexpensive players, it also has almost $110MM committed to eight players for 2021 (that isn’t counting Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option, which we’ll cover later).  Like every other team in baseball, the Cardinals are dealing with revenue losses and will be looking to make at least some cutbacks whenever feasible.  That said, this is also a veteran win-now team, so the Cards will still be looking to contend.

It leaves president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch with a difficult offseason ahead of them, in part because the 2020 Cardinals are a particularly hard team to evaluate.  The coronavirus outbreak affected multiple members of the roster and kept the entire team sidelined for over two weeks, only adding to the stop-start nature of an already abbreviated season.  A case can be made that the front office could try to run it back with mostly the same core group, yet the Cardinals have enough weak points that some changes definitely need to be made.

Molina was one of the COVID-19 positive Cardinals, and the longtime catcher simply never got on track, hitting .262/.303/.359 over 156 plate appearances.  That makes it consecutive seasons of subpar offensive production for Molina, but he is still looking for a two-year contract that would take him past his 40th birthday.  Letting Molina go would open the door for noted prospect Andrew Knizner to assume at least a share of everyday duties (maybe alongside a veteran such as a re-signed Matt Wieters), and yet are the Cards willing to let a franchise icon depart?

Wainwright represents perhaps a slightly easier decision, as the 39-year-old was still a very effective player last season.  Statcast metrics didn’t love his performance, but Wainwright still posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over a team-high 65 2/3 innings.  Even with a big decline over a fuller season of work, Wainwright still looks like he has something to offer a team, so the question now becomes whether or not the Cardinals could be that team.  Wainwright has said he wants to stay in St. Louis but hinted that his fate could potentially be linked to wherever Molina ends up.

Re-signing Wainwright to something close to the one-year, $5MM contract (plus several incentives) that he inked last year would seem like a logical move for the Cardinals, who head into 2021 with some question marks on the pitching staff.  Nominal ace Jack Flaherty struggled in 2020, Carlos Martinez battled a severe case of COVID-19 and then suffered a late-season oblique strain, and Miles Mikolas’ status for the start of next season isn’t yet known after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in late July.  On top of that, Dakota Hudson will almost certainly miss all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September.

A lower-tier move like a reunion with Wainwright might be all the attention the Cards focus on their rotation, since they still have some solid in-house depth.  Kwang Hyun Kim proved to be a real find last winter, and the South Korean left-hander solidified his spot in next year’s starting five following an outstanding rookie season.  Beyond Kim and Flaherty, the Cardinals also have Daniel Ponce de Leon, Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, and Austin Gomber to pick up starts, and top prospect Matthew Liberatore could also potentially work his way into the conversation.

There’s also oft-injured Alex Reyes, who stayed healthy (apart from an asymptomatic case of COVID-19) and pitched well in a relief capacity.  St. Louis could opt to just keep Reyes in the bullpen to avoid any further injury concerns, and the same logic could also extend to Martinez, who was returning to starting pitching in 2020 after an impressive season and a half working as a reliever.  Depending on Martinez’s health situation and the overall state of the rotation, returning Martinez to the closer role (or maybe situational closer duties shared with Reyes) could be a canny way of bolstering an already solid relief corps.  Jordan Hicks also figures to be in the ninth-inning mix, though his status is somewhat up in the air after he opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns and a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in June 2019.

The Cardinals’ ability to deliver consistent pitching and quality defense made them a playoff team, though that path would be much easier with any sort of regular help from the lineup.  Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t quite a one-man hit squad in 2020, as St. Louis got an unexpectedly big contribution from utilityman Brad Miller and center fielder Harrison Bader at least crushed left-handed pitching, even if his splits against righties were mediocre.

Goldschmidt is obviously a cornerstone player, and the Cards would be pleased with Bader as an everyday player (with some platoon possibility) if he continues to mash lefties and provide solid center field defense, though Bader’s glovework dropped from excellent in 2018-19 to merely good in 2020.  Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals will go into next season unsure of whether or not Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, or Dexter Fowler can turn things around at the plate.

DeJong’s struggles could be explained by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, though Carpenter has had two straight subpar seasons and Fowler has been hit-and-miss for much of his St. Louis tenure.  On top of that, Tommy Edman followed up his strong 2019 rookie year with an underwhelming second season, so it remains to be seen if Edman just had a sophomore slump (on top of everything else in 2020) or if he can adjust and become a regular contributor within the infield.

For now, the Cardinals’ infield picture lines up as Goldschmidt at first base, DeJong at shortstop, Carpenter at third base, and Edman as the nominal second baseman until a decision is made on Wong.  Though Wong hit only .265/.350/.326 over 208 PA last season, the Cards know what they have in the Hawaii native — roughly average offensive production (a 99 wRC+ and 98 OPS+ from 2015-20) and an often spectacular second base glove.  In a normal offseason, exercising that $12.5MM club option would seem like a relatively easy call for St. Louis, but the team is thought to be exploring a contract extension with Wong that would lower his salary for the 2021 season but give him more long-term security.

If an extension can’t be reached, could St. Louis consider simply declining Wong’s option?  It seems a little unlikely, given Wong’s obvious value to both the Cardinals and other teams, yet the possibility can’t be ruled out if the Cardinals are lacking in payroll wiggle room.  The Cards might have some confidence they could get Wong to re-sign at a lower price tag, but a number of second-base needy teams (i.e. the Athletics, Indians, Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, and probably others) would provide a lot of competition for Wong’s services.

With Carpenter a question mark, St. Louis will probably look for more infield depth beyond Edman, and re-signing Miller would certainly seem feasible given how well he played last season.  Miller has quietly hit .247/.343/.510 with 20 home runs over 341 PA since the start of the 2019 season, with much of that production coming against right-handed pitching.  Signing a player of Miller’s ilk will become even more of a need if the National League again has the DH for 2021, as Miller instantly provided the Cardinals with some pop from the new position.

That leaves the outfield, a big problem area in 2020 that nonetheless has hope for improvement.  St. Louis outfielders combined for an 82 wRC+ in 2020 (the sixth-lowest total of any team), but Bader did hit lefties well, and star prospect Dylan Carlson seemed to turn a corner in mid-September after being recalled from a demotion to the alternate training site.  The Cardinals likely have Bader and Carlson penciled in for two outfield spots, or perhaps 1.5 spots if Carlson plays center field on days when the Cards face a right-handed starter.

That puts no small amount of pressure on a 22-year-old, of course, and it would help the Cardinals immensely if they could count on anything from Fowler, Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas.  COVID-19 limited Thomas to only 18 games, so there is some expectation that he can rebound as at least a part-time outfield option if healthy.  O’Neill is only 25 and not far removed from being a top prospect, but he has yet to translate his hitting potential into big league numbers.

This much wait-and-see is risky for a team hoping to win in 2021, so if St. Louis makes any sort of notable addition this winter, the outfield is the logical landing spot.  As much as trading Randy Arozarena might still weigh heavily on the front office’s mind, the Cardinals could shop O’Neill, Thomas, or Bader for a more proven veteran bat.  With only one year left on his contract, Fowler might also be moveable in a bad-contract swap or if the Cards are willing to eat some money.  If the trade market isn’t the preferred route, the Cardinals could look at free agents, whether it’s pure outfielders like Joc Pederson, or perhaps multi-position types like Jurickson Profar or Enrique Hernandez that could help in both the outfield and infield.

There’s probably bound to again be speculation about the Cards trying to swing a bigger-ticket trade like their acquisition of Goldschmidt two offseasons ago, or their rumored interest in Nolan Arenado last winter.  But, if payroll concerns were an obstacle to an Arenado trade last year, a deal seems even more unlikely now in the pandemic’s wake.

It’s easy to imagine either a pretty quiet or a pretty busy offseason for the Cardinals, depending on how much change they feel is necessary.  After all, this is a club that has been to the postseason in consecutive years, albeit via the expanded playoff field in 2020.  The potential departures of Molina and Wainwright have more than just symbolic importance, as the Cards would be left with two more areas of need on a roster that is lacking in sure things.

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

*Should* the A's make a qualifying offer to Marcus Semien and/or Liam Hendriks?
They should make a qualifying offer to both. 34.97% (1,807 votes)
They shouldn't make a qualifying offer to either. 24.34% (1,258 votes)
They should make one to Hendriks, but not Semien. 22.04% (1,139 votes)
They should make one to Semien, but not Hendriks. 18.65% (964 votes)
Total Votes: 5,168


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

*Will* the A's make a qualifying offer to Marcus Semien and/or Liam Hendriks?
They won't make one to either player. 41.80% (1,344 votes)
They'll make one to Semien but not Hendriks. 21.93% (705 votes)
They'll make one to Hendriks but not Semien. 19.07% (613 votes)
They'll make one to both players. 17.20% (553 votes)
Total Votes: 3,215

Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade

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The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…

Yankees

  • New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.

Mets

  • This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.

Angels

  • Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher’s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Braves

  • The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.

Phillies

  • Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.

Dodgers

  • Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.

Blue Jays

  • Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.

Reds

  • A Lindor pursuit could  be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.

Athletics

  • The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.

Twins

  • Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.

Cubs

  • The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020, although that came as little surprise following a winter where their only moves of note were to fire their manager, fire their GM and eventually trade away their best position player. They’ll have the top pick in next summer’s draft and another offseason that could subtract some notable names from the big league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $14MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option; contract also contains 2023 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using his 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Other Contractual Obligations

  • The Pirates technically owe Felipe Vazquez $7.75MM in 2021, but he’s not earning his salary while on the restricted list due to the abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges brought forth against him in 2019.

The Pirates will head into the 2020-21 offseason with an offense that scored the fewest runs in baseball (219) and a pitching staff that ranked 19th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. It’d be impossible to fix this club in just one offseason, but that’s of course not the goal of GM Ben Cherington and his staff, who surely knew they were signing on for a rebuilding effort when ownership fired former GM Neal Huntington.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, virtually every would-be trade chip on the roster saw his value disintegrate in what was a disastrous 2020 season. Chris Archer could have been one of the more intriguing arms on the trade market but didn’t pitch after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. That procedure makes his $11MM club option a virtual lock to be bought out, which should formally close the books on one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Closer Keone Kela was a no-brainer trade piece but missed the early portion of the season on the Covid-19 injured list and immediately went down with a forearm issue that ultimately ended his season. Both physical setbacks surely deprived the Pirates of the chance to acquire some younger, cost-controlled talent.

Archer and Kela were far from the only injuries that hindered any would-be rebuilding efforts for Cherington & Co., however. Right-hander Joe Musgrove hit the IL with a triceps injury in early August and wasn’t able to return prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. He was still discussed in trades — the Blue Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal, in fact — but Musgrove stayed put and will surely be on the market again this winter. Hot-hitting Colin Moran could conceivably have garnered interest from teams in need of a bat; he was hitting .259/.326/.531 as of Aug. 23 — when he was hit by a pitch and diagnosed with a concussion that kept him out until the deadline had passed.

When all was said and done, Jarrod Dyson was the only player the Pirates moved — a deal that netted them a bit of extra cash to devote to international free agency. Musgrove and fellow righty starter Trevor Williams were discussed but never moved, and the Pirates’ remaining trade assets all flopped in terms of performance. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco all hit so poorly that it’s hard to imagine many contenders even carried substantial interest — and that’s an issue that dovetails nicely into what a tough situation Cherington and his staff will face this winter. Here’s a look at what each of those three players did in 2020:

  • Bell: .226/.305/.364, eight home runs, career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate
  • Polanco: .153/.214/.325, seven home runs, career-worst 37.4 percent strikeout rate
  • Frazier: .230/.297/.364, seven home runs, career-worst 15.2 percent strikeout rate

Under normal circumstances, any of those three would ostensibly be an appealing trade chip. Polanco has battled injuries and inconsistency, but at his best in 2018, he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples, a dozen steals and decent defense in right field. Bell crushed 37 home runs last year, and while he’s a poor defender at first base, he’s also a switch-hitter who is controlled through the 2022 season. Frazier isn’t as well-known but entered the 2020 season with a career .279/.342/.420 slash. Like Bell, he’s controlled through 2022.

Minor struggles or a slight down season might’ve helped to keep interest in that trio alive, but Bell and Polanco, in particular, ranked among MLB’s worst players. Of the 310 players in baseball to take at least 100 plate appearances this year, Bell’s -0.4 fWAR tied him for 283rd, while Polanco checked in at 303rd. Maybe a team would still like to acquire Bell while his salary is manageable and roll the dice on his two years of club control, but no one would pay a premium to do so. Polanco’s salary now looks mostly immovable. Frazier’s season wasn’t quite as dire, but a trade would still be selling quite low on a typically steady producer.

There are similar quandaries in the rotation. Trevor Williams got out to a solid start to his 2020 season but was shelled over his final six starts. In his final 31 frames, he yielded 28 earned runs on 41 hits (12 homers) and 13 walks with 26 punchouts. Chad Kuhl posted a respectable 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he also walked 28 batters and hit a pair in that time, resulting in an ugly 5.48 FIP and 4.98 xFIP. Jameson Taillon moved another year closer to free agency in 2020, but the Pirates can’t be expected to trade him when he hasn’t pitched since June 2019 due to his second Tommy John surgery. All three of those pitchers are controlled through 2022, so there’s time to build some value back up next season.

If there’s one bright spot from the rotation that should bring the Bucs a nice haul this winter, it’s the aforementioned Musgrove. His forearm troubles limited him to 39 2/3 frames in 2020, but he was quite good when healthy (3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55-to-16 K/BB ratio, 48.2 percent grounder rate). Thankfully for the Pirates, Musgrove finished well upon his return and was utterly dominant in his final two outings: 13 shoutout frames against the Indians and Cardinals with a 21-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’s controlled another two seasons, and with a 4.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 325 1/3 innings since being acquired by Pittsburgh, he’ll be among the more appealing arms on the trade market this winter — especially considering a projected salary south of $4MM.

There are certainly some other arms the Bucs could market to the league’s many pitching-needy clubs. Southpaw Steven Brault turned in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP through 42 2/3 frames, working mostly as a starter. His previous track record was limited, but he’s controlled through 2023 (and sings one heck of a National Anthem). Right-hander Richard Rodriguez quietly posted a 2.70 ERA/2.85 FIP with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames. Chris Stratton, acquired from the Angels for cash in 2019, has a 3.76 ERA and matching FIP with 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 76 2/3 innings as a Pirate. Both relievers are controlled through 2023 as well.

Perhaps behind the plate, 30-year-old Jacob Stallings could be an under-the-radar trade candidate. Stallings has hit .256/.326/.380 over the past two seasons while also serving as one of the best defenders in baseball. He’ll be 31 in December, but he’s controlled through 2024. It’d be a leap of faith for a contending club to plug him in as a starter, but over Stallings’ past 353 plate appearances, he’s been worth 2.4 fWAR and rWAR alike. If nothing else, his considerable platoon splits would make his right-handed bat a strong complement to another club’s left-handed-hitting starter.

Certainly, that’s a lot of focus on what the Pirates could subtract this winter and not much of a look at what they could add. It goes without saying that the Bucs won’t be players for any of the market’s top free agents or any high-profile players on the trade market. That doesn’t mean Cherington’s group will entirely eschew some free-agent additions, however. In fact, there’s good reason to argue for the Pirates being fairly aggressive with short-term adds in free agency.

Assuming a Musgrove trade is ultimately put together, there will be space in the rotation to attract free-agent starters in search of rebounds. Taillon and righty Mitch Keller should have spots locked down, and either of Williams or Kuhl could get another look if they’re not traded. Adding a rotation piece in need of a bounceback — or perhaps a young, non-tendered arm with some upside — would be wise.

The current group of free-agent starters includes rebound candidates like Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Tyler Chatwood and numerous others. The non-tender market will add alternatives, with Jose Urena, Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz standing out as a few speculative possibilities. The Pirates have a fairly pitcher-friendly park and a clear path to innings — something many contending clubs won’t be able to offer.

That’s even more true in the bullpen, where there should be numerous spots up for grabs in Spring Training. Promising a few spots to relievers in search of a rebound is sensible given the dearth of proven arms in the current group and the potential to spin any new signings into a decent return come July. We see this sort of deal come together every year around the league, with Kansas City’s recent Trevor Rosenthal addition standing as the most recent example.

With the entire Pirates outfield struggling badly in 2020, the Bucs would be a nice soft landing spot for any free agent whose market collapses — a near inevitability given the expected lack of spending among teams and the potential flooding of the market following the non-tender date. They’ll want to leave space to allow 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds to rebound and, quite likely, to give waiver pickup Anthony Alford a platform to audition. Shortstop-turned-outfielder Cole Tucker should get a look as well. Still, there ought to be enough fluidity to grab a veteran who could provide stability, competitive at-bats and perhaps be flipped as was the case with Dyson this year.

The infield should be mostly set with breakout sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had one of the best showings of any rookie once he was finally called to the big leagues, getting the third base job from the outset. Moran and Bell can pair to handle duties at first base and, if it’s implemented permanently in the NL, at designated hitter. Frazier’s track record should be enough to give him a mulligan on his poor 2020 showing if he isn’t traded. The possibility of a non-tender involving Bell, Frazier or Moran can’t be completely ruled out, but any would register as a surprise.

It’s also plausible that the Bucs could add at shortstop, where none of Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer or the aforementioned Tucker has solidified himself. The 27-year-old Newman was terrific in 2019 but, like many of his teammates, floundered at the plate in 2020. Right hip surgery, meanwhile, wiped out Kramer’s entire season. Perhaps the Pirates could give a versatile option like Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar a look on a bounceback deal if neither is finding much of a market. There may be some speculation connecting the Bucs to KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll be posted this winter, given the team’s prior winning of the Jung Ho Kang bidding back in 2014. But Kim is a better player, should cost more and should also field offers from more competitive clubs; a match here would be a surprise.

Broadly speaking, it should be a quiet offseason for a Pirates club that, more than anything else, needs to see key 2019 contributors rebound in 2021. It will be critical for Bell, Polanco, Frazier, Williams and others to reestablish some trade value as their club control continues to dwindle. Should that not pan out, there could be a very different and difficult set of decisions for the Bucs to make this time next year. In the meantime, Pirates fans can look forward to watching Hayes build on his astounding debut effort as they continue to dream of what next year’s No. 1 overall pick might bring.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ’faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The World Series?
Dodgers 50.63% (5,753 votes)
Rays 49.37% (5,610 votes)
Total Votes: 11,363

Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

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With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and third basemen due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the keystone, where utility options are in abundance.

Top of the Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): The American League batting champ is the cream of the crop at second base. Given his ability to slide anywhere in the infield, he’s about as valuable a commodity as can be found on the open market this winter. There will be widespread interest. Still, second base is his best position, and he’s easily the best player available in this spot. Don’t be surprised to see him sign somewhere with a need at the keystone – even returning to the Bronx. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances.

Potential Regulars

  • Jonathan Villar (30): Villar split his time between the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2020, but he fell short of reproducing the solid effort from the year prior. Between the two stops, he slashed just .232/.301/.292 while receiving regular playing time. There are some rumblings that he’s a second-division kind of guy, and he may have to choose between playing every down for a mid-tier club, or accepting a utility spot for a contender. He’s a dirt dog who runs well and can handle any spot up the middle, including centerfield.
  • Tommy La Stella (32): The A’s like La Stella and will likely try to bring him back. His ability to play second or third while posting professional at-bats and keeping the ball in play make him an appealing option league-wide, however. He’s also not likely to break the bank. He’ll not want to return to pinch-hitting duty, so a regular role will be a must – especially after a solid .281/.370/.449 effort between the Angels and A’s in 2020.
  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Hernandez impressed in his lone season with the Indians. If the price is right, both sides might look for a repeat performance after the long-time Phillie slashed .283/.355/.408 with a league-leading 20 doubles across 261 plate appearances. After middling defensive numbers with the Phillies, he got good marks for his work at the keystone in 2020 (6 DRS, 3.8 UZR). Hernandez should have no problem finding a regular role somewhere.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): Profar made good on his opportunity with the Padres, hitting .278/.343/.428 with 7 home runs across 202 plate appearances. He played more outfield than second base this season, but that was mostly a function of Jake Cronenworth’s breakout. Profar certainly enjoyed his time in San Diego, but his versatility could make him an asset on many teams. Where he suits up in 2021 should come down to price point.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Schoop mashed in his first season with the Tigers: .278/.324/.475 with 8 home runs in 2020. He still handles himself well defensively at second, but he doesn’t bring the versatility of many players on this list.

Part-Time/Utility Players

  • Enrique Hernandez (29): Kiké fits the mold of a number of players on this list, guys who can handle regular to semi-regular playing time while filling in all over the diamond. Hernandez has been the second-stringer to Chris Taylor in this role for the Dodgers, but he nonetheless gets somewhere between 200-500 at-bats per season, and they trust him in the postseason. He hit .230/.270/.410 in 2020, and if the Dodgers don’t return him to the roster, someone else will.
  • Freddy Galvis (31): Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 across 159 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds. He can play both spots up the middle, and the switch-hitter does just enough at the plate to remain a viable option for everyday at-bats.
  • Jason Kipnis (34): The long-term Cleveland Indian saw regular playing time with the Cubs in 2020, slashing .237/.341/.404. He did just enough to keep getting the call at the 9-spot in the order, but he’s probably best utilized in a heavy timeshare.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): MLBTR’s Steve Adams said it best when previewing the market for third baseman: “Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.”
  • Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a decent run with the Nationals in 2020 after the Phillies cut him loose. He hit .278/.352/.418 across 91 plate appearances while making a good impression on manager Davey Martinez. He runs well enough and plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher. Don’t be surprised to see the Nationals bring him back in 2021.
  • Brock Holt (32): Likewise, Holt impressed with the Nats after a disastrous turn to start the year with the Brewers. Not only did he hit .262/.314/.354 across 70 plate appearances in Washington, but he rocked a mustache and made two appearances on the mound.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez spent the past two seasons with the Twins, slashing .248/.311/.387. He maintains the ability to play everywhere, though he made just one appearance at shortstop over his two seasons in Minnesota.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (32): The defensive wizard appeared in 27 games for the Braves this year, slashing .254/.302/.305. He hasn’t been in consideration for postseason action. His value on this list lies in his ability to play a competent defensive shortstop.
  • Chris Owings (29): Owings got 44 plate appearances with the Rockies this year and held his own, hitting .268/.318/.439. His value comes in his versatility, however. Despite only appearing in 17 games, Owings spent time at every position except pitcher and catcher, even pinch-hitting three times and pinch-running twice.
  • Neil Walker (35): Walker was a semi-regular as recently as 2019 for the Marlins and 2018 with the Yankees. In 2020, however, he appeared in just 18 games, slashing .231/.244/.308 with the Phillies. Defense has never been his forte, but he can handle a glove at first, second, or third, while even taking an occasional turn in the outfield.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie’s disastrous tenure with the Mets ended with just 8 plate appearances in two years. If the long-time veteran can get healthy, someone will give him a look, but that’s a big if.
  • Logan Forsythe (34): Forsythe’s best days are behind him. He hit just .118 in very limited action this year for the Marlins, and it’s been a long time since he glory days in Tampa. Still, he provides a good eye at the plate and enough positional versatility to get a look somewhere as a non-roster invitee.
  • Joe Panik (30): Panik’s days as a regular at the keystone are probably over. He hit .225/.340/.300 across 141 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2020 while moving between second, third, and short. That’s his role moving forward, but the playing time he received in 2020 extrapolates to 380 plate appearances in a full season – I’ll take the under on that number moving forward.

Players with 2021 Options

  • Kolten Wong, $12.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (30): Wong doesn’t bring much in the way of power, but he puts together good at-bats and plays gold glove defense. He slashed .265/.350/.326 in 2020, putting him somewhat on the bubble for 2021, but chances are the Cardinals find some way to bring him back.
  • Daniel Descalso, $3.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (34): Descalso won’t have this option picked up, despite providing more-or-less exactly what the Cubs hoped from him in terms of clubhouse/veteran presence. On the diamond, however, Descalso missed all of 2020 after slashing just .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019.
  • Leury Garcia $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout (30): This one could go either way. The White Sox love Garcia, and with Nick Madrigal coming back from injury, the ChiSox may prefer to bring back Garcia. He hit a palatable .271/.317/.441 across 63 plate appearances in 2020.
  • Dee Strange-Gordon, $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout (33): The Mariners will buy out Strange-Gordon after another lackluster season at the plate (42 wRC+). Great speed and the ability to play the outfield should get him a look somewhere, perhaps even with a contender in the mold of Billy Hamilton.

Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers

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After examining which position players may or may not be in line to receive a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer this winter, let’s look at the pitching side of the free agent market.  For a refresher on how the qualifying offer system operates, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently published the key details, including draft pick compensation and how the QO cannot be applied to a player more than once.

The Easy Call: Trevor Bauer (Reds)

Bauer is the one slam-dunk candidate of the field, as the Reds will surely issue him a QO and Bauer will just as surely reject it as he looks for a richer contract.  Cincinnati would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick if Bauer signed elsewhere, though the somewhat unique nature of Bauer’s free agent plans could impact that pick.  As a revenue-sharing team, the Reds’ compensatory pick would fall after the first round of the draft, but only if Bauer signs for more than $50MM.  If Bauer were to stick to his one-time plan of accepting a one-year contract with a very high average annual value, it’s possible such a deal might not crack the $50MM threshold — say, if Bauer took a one-year, $45MM pact.  In this scenario, the Reds’ pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, or roughly 35-40 picks under their placement if Bauer signed for more than $50MM.

Borderline Cases: Kevin Gausman (Giants), Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees), Marcus Stroman (Mets), Liam Hendriks (Athletics)

After a shaky 2019 season, Gausman was non-tendered by the Reds and ended up signing a one-year, $9MM with San Francisco.  The “pillow contract” strategy ended up working, as Gausman posted a strong year and is now positioned for a larger free agent payday.  On paper, it seems like Gausman a logical candidate to be issued a qualifying offer, though the situation may not quite be so clear cut — MLB.com’s Maria Guardado considers it “unlikely” that Gausman will get a QO.

Why would the Giants hesitate?  While the team would like to re-sign Gausman for 2021, the Giants may simply not value him at an $18.9MM price point, and could be concerned that Gausman would accept the qualifying offer.  There are some similarities between Gausman’s situation and the decision Jake Odorizzi faced last fall, as Odorizzi had also rebounded from an off-year in 2018 but chose to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer rather than test what he felt could be an unfriendly free agent market.  Given how the pandemic has lowered revenues all over baseball this year, it is quite possible Gausman has concerns about his own trip to free agency and might prefer to lock in $18.9MM right away.

To provide some sort of an idea about how much uncertainty surrounds the offseason player market, consider the range of contract predictions George A. King III of the New York Post collected from evaluators about what Tanaka could land this winter.  Tanaka has been solid-to-excellent over his seven years in the Bronx, is still relatively young (he turns 32 in November) and the Yankees certainly need pitching, so his QO case is another that would seem pretty straight-forward in a normal winter.

As much as the Yankees value Tanaka, if they think there’s a chance he could accept a qualifying offer, they could opt to not issue one if they feel they can re-sign him for less than an $18.9MM average annual value.  Every dollar may count for the Yankees, as there has been speculation that the Yankees could look to reset their luxury tax penalties by getting payroll under the $210MM tax threshold.

Stroman presents one of the strangest cases of any qualifying offer candidate ever, since he didn’t throw a pitch in 2020.  He began the season on the injured list due to a calf muscle tear, and then chose to opt out of playing altogether (after he had amassed enough service time to qualify for free agency).  Stroman has been vocal in the past about his desire for a long-term contract, but given the circumstances, such a deal could be hard to come by.

If Stroman is still adamant about landing a multi-year deal, it’s possible the Mets could issue a QO if they are pretty certain he’ll reject it.  If Stroman is now open to accepting a one-year deal to rebuild his value, the Mets probably won’t issue a qualifying offer…or would they?  In theory, Steve Cohen’s impending purchase of the franchise means more money could be available on payroll, so the Mets could be more open than most teams to an $18.9MM expenditure on a pitcher they were counting on as a staple of their rotation.  Further complicating the matter, however, is the fact that teams only have until five days after the World Series to issue qualifying offers, and Cohen might not be officially approved as the Mets’ new owner by that time.  That could leave current GM Brodie Van Wagenen in something of a holding pattern about big-picture decisions, particularly since Sandy Alderson has been tabbed to take over as the Mets’ chief decision-maker on baseball operations, and Van Wagenen could soon be out of a job.

As noted in our position player QO forecast, the Athletics also face a tough qualifying offer decision on shortstop Marcus Semien.  It isn’t likely that the A’s would be willing to pay any player $18.9MM per season, and if they did, they would surely be more comfortable giving that money to an everyday player like Semien rather than a reliever, even an ace reliever like Hendriks.

Hendriks posted good results from 2015-18 and has been flat-out dominant over the last two seasons.  Hendriks might be apt to reject a QO to see if he can translate his track record into a nice multi-year contract, but as a relief pitcher entering his age-32 season, Hendriks might be another player wary of what the market will bear.  Baseball Reference lists Hendriks’ career earnings as just under $12.5MM, so accepting the qualifying offer would itself count as a massive payday.

Probably Not: Alex Colome (White Sox)

The White Sox don’t have the same payroll limitations as Oakland, though they are also unlikely to risk paying a closer $18.9MM.  Colome has been tremendous over his two seasons in Chicago, even if advanced metrics aren’t quite as pleased with his grounder-heavy arsenal and relative lack of strikeouts (though Colome induces a lot of soft contact).  Colome is also turning 32 this winter and the White Sox have several potential closers in waiting, so they could prefer to spend their available payroll space on more pressing needs like starting pitching or another outfield bat.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The 2020 season was the third straight year in which the Royals finished in fourth of fifth place, but the club did begin to see some of the fruits of its rebuilding efforts break into the big leagues. They’ll head into the winter looking to supplement their lineup and plug some holes in the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

The Royals’ record didn’t really reflect it, but the club still had some high points in 2020. Top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, viewed as potential building blocks in the rotation, both made their big league debuts and held their own. Ups and downs were obviously to be expected given that Singer had just 16 Double-A starts under his belt and Bubic made the jump straight from Class-A Advanced, but the bottom-line results were plenty respectable. Singer tossed 64 1/3 frames with a 4.06 ERA and near-identical marks in FIP (4.08) and xFIP (4.05). Bubic was hit hard early but finished well, ultimately completing his rookie season with 50 frames and a 4.32 ERA (4.75 FIP, 4.48 xFIP).

There were positives in the bullpen, too, where minor league rolls of the dice on both Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland proved to be savvy. Moore spun Rosenthal into a prospect package headlined by an MLB-ready outfielder, Edward Olivares, while Holland anchored the bullpen and helped to ease some younger arms like Josh Staumont into higher-leverage spots. Moore has said he’ll look into re-signing both, but each right-hander should have a chance at garnering multi-year offers this winter, with Rosenthal in particular standing out as one of the most sought-after relief options on the market. Both are probably out of the Royals’ price range at this point.

The bullpen will still be a priority for Moore and his lieutenants this winter, but the primary focus could be on augmenting the lineup. Moore was candid in addressing his team’s offense following the season, proclaiming a need to improve his team’s on-base percentage and expressing a desire to upgrade at least two spots in the lineup. Whit Merrifield’s versatility will allow the Royals to explore a broad range of possibilities, but looking up and down the lineup, it’s rather clear where they could look.

Six spots in next year’s lineup appear largely set. Franchise cornerstone Salvador Perez will be back at catcher, and the Royals’ infield corners are set with Hunter Dozier at first and a revitalized Maikel Franco at third base. Adalberto Mondesi will man shortstop. Jorge Soler will serve as the DH. Merrifield can play either second or anywhere in the outfield, but recent usage seems to suggest the club prefers the latter. The Royals haven’t gotten much of a look at trade acquisitions Olivares and Franchy Cordero in the outfield, so bringing in two new outfield faces seems unlikely.

The outfield should be an easy spot to add one veteran, however, with affordable OBP-driven veterans like Brett Gardner, Matt Joyce and Robbie Grossman all likely to be available this winter. (Gardner does have a club option with the Yankees.) If Moore wants to buy low on another former top prospect, as he did with Franco, he could see whether Jurickson Profar’s September hot streak as the Padres’ left fielder proves sustainable.

If there’s a second spot in the lineup, it seems second base is likely. Moore was quick to praise Nicky Lopez’s glovework and overall upside, but there’s little overlooking that the former second-round pick has logged an awful .228/.279/.307 slash in just shy of 600 big league plate appearances. Said Moore in regard to his middle-infield duo (via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star):

We love the combination of Mondesi and Lopez, especially defensively. I think we all recognize that there’s a lot of range, talent, athleticism, creativity, with those two. They’re able to make plays. I think that’s really important. We also all understand from watching our team play and from knowing baseball, you’ve got to have production from those spots. You can’t have a period of time when you’re not getting production out of shortstop and second base. You can live with one or the other struggling offensively, but not both.

Moore went on to state that the Royals are “prepared to give [Lopez] more time,” although that certainly doesn’t have to be in the Majors right away. There are varying ways to read into the comments — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes sees it as a vote of confidence in Lopez for 2021 — but at the very least Moore left open the door for Lopez to return to Triple-A and iron out the kinks while a veteran provides more competitive at-bats.

The market is flush with veteran infielders and will be all the more so after the non-tender deadline. Players like Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella would give the club the short-term OBP boost it seeks while Lopez works to bring his bat up to speed. If Kolten Wong’s 2021 option is bought out by the Cardinals, his combination of elite defense, speed and low strikeout rate is a skill set the Royals have prioritized often in recent years.

Clearly, none of the names listed are going to transform what was a light-hitting lineup into a powerhouse, but for a still-rebuilding club that ranked 26th in the Majors in OBP (.309), 25th in walk rate (7.8 percent) and 24th in total runs (248), adding some lower-cost options to boost the unit’s competitiveness is a sensible approach. Some tinkering with the bench is always possible, and a shortstop-capable infielder would prove particularly prudent if there is indeed some minor league time in Lopez’s future, as he’s also the primary backup for Mondesi at short.

The rest of the club’s lifting seems likely to be done on the pitching side of things, although as is usually the case, there’s little reason to expect the Royals will make a major splash. That’s in part due to their typically middle-to-lower tier payroll but also due to the stock of enticing arms that is bubbling up to the Majors.

Kansas City’s rebuild has been rooted in stockpiling interesting young pitching, and there’s more on the horizon beyond the aforementioned Singer and Bubic. Top prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar also figure to make their MLB debuts in 2021. The quartet of Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Kowar probably won’t all pan out as quality big league starters — such is the nature of pitching prospects — but they’ll be given every opportunity to do so. That foursome should make plenty of starts in 2020, and the Royals have veterans like Danny Duffy, Brad Keller and the somewhat less-established Jakob Junis to help rounds things out. Perhaps they’ll still bring in a recognizable name on a low-cost or even minor league deal to stash some depth in Triple-A, but 2021 should be spent prioritizing opportunities for that promising young group. Each of Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Kowar landed on at least one Top 100 list of note heading into the 2020 campaign, after all.

That leaves the bullpen as the likely area of focus on the pitching side of things. As previously alluded to, Rosenthal, Holland and shared agent Scott Boras will likely be targeting multi-year arrangements in free agency this winter. Ian Kennedy’s ill-fated five-year deal is at last off the team’s books, but his departure creates another vacancy in Mike Matheny’s bullpen.

The Royals have some interesting arms in the ’pen, headlined by fireballing strikeout machine Josh Staumont and breakout former first-rounder Kyle Zimmer. Veteran Jesse Hahn, meanwhile, turned in perhaps the most quietly dominant season of any reliever in MLB this year: one run on four hits and eight walks with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 frames. Righty Scott Barlow posted big K/BB numbers, while rookie Tyler Zuber showed the ability to miss bats but needs to further refine his control before cementing himself in the group. Kevin McCarthy has been solid in the past, and Jake Newberry gave some cause for optimism in 2020.

While the organization has some intriguing arms in house, there’s room to add some low-cost supplements. If the Royals want to try to replicate this year’s Rosenthal/Holland jackpot, old friend Wade Davis is on the market in search of a place to rebound. A lefty could also be a sensible target for K.C., as they’re presently lacking much certainty in that regard. The relief market figures to be more volatile than ever this winter, though, with a few dozen new additions expected to join the fray by way of non-tender. That should present the Royals with ample opportunities for bargain hunting, and their lack of a defined closer could allow them to dangle save opportunities to a reliever of particular interest.

Turning away from free agency and looking to the trade market, the Royals have some options on whom they could listen — but a move isn’t as likely as fans of other clubs would expect or hope. Whit Merrifield’s name has been bandied about the rumor mill for years, but Moore has repeatedly gone on the record to quell such talk. It’s only natural to speculate on the trade of a quality player in his early 30s who has a team-friendly contract with a rebuilding club. However, the Royals operate differently in that regard than most of today’s teams. Expect to see rumblings of interest in Merrifield, of course, but an actual trade coming together feels unlikely.

Kansas City also has three players set to reach the open market next winter who’ll be points of focus over the winter. Salvador Perez likely becomes the de facto face of the franchise now that Alex Gordon has retired. With little catching help on the horizon in the farm, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Royals look to extend him next spring — revenue losses or not. There were suggestions last winter that the Royals had interest in hammering out a long-term deal with 2019 home run king Jorge Soler, though it’s not clear how or whether that lost revenue and an injury-hindered season for Soler have impacted that goal.

In the rotation, stalwart Danny Duffy is coming up on the final season of the five-year, $65MM extension he took in lieu of his first bite at the free-agent apple. He’ll turn 32 in December and is coming off a lackluster 4.95 ERA and 4.75 FIP in 56 1/3 frames, but he’s been a stable member of the staff there since moving to the rotation full-time in 2016. At $15MM next season, Duffy probably won’t command significant trade interest off a down year, and as noted in discussing Merrifield, the Royals tend to value continuity.

It’s certainly possible that the Royals will look to acquire some additional controllable options as they did when picking up Cordero and Olivares in separate deals with the Padres over the past several months. With Perez, Soler and Franco all entering their final season of club control and no set option yet at second base, there are myriad possibilities on which to speculate.

The American League Central is more competitive than at any point in recent years thanks to the emergent White Sox and continued strong showings from Minnesota and Cleveland. It’s tough to envision everything coming together for the Royals to jump right back into contention next year, but by the time 2021 rolls around they could have some major contracts off the books, a core of young rotation pieces that have all gotten their feet wet in the Majors and two more of the game’s elite prospects, infielder Bobby Witt Jr. and left-hander Asa Lacy, looming in the upper minors. A quiet offseason seems likely, but things are still beginning to look up in Kansas City.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years.  This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter.  To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort.  So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.  The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level.  A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything.  Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it.  Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room.  To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:

  • Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
  • Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals.  One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
  • Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (11)

  • Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
  • Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
  • Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
  • Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
  • Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
  • Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
  • Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
  • Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
  • Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM /  $1.0MM
  • Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM

Astros (3)

  • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
  • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
  • Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
  • Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
  • Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
  • Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
  • Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
  • Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
  • Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
  • Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K

Blue Jays (3)

  • A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
  • Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
  • Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM

Braves (8)

  • Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
  • Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
  • Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
  • A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
  • Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

Brewers (10)

  • Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
  • Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
  • Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
  • Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

Cardinals (6)

  • Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
  • John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
  • John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
  • Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM

Cubs (12)

  • Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
  • Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
  • Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
  • Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
  • Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
  • Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM /  $1.0MM
  • Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
  • Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM /  $7.9MM
  • Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM /  $1.1MM
  • Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (5)

  • Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
  • Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM /  $2.8MM
  • Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM /  $1.3MM
  • Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM /  $1.3MM
  • Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
  • Walker Buehler – $2.3MM /  $3.1MM / $2.3MM
  • Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM /  $900K
  • Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
  • Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM

Giants (9)

  • Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM /  $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
  • Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM

Indians (7)

  • Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
  • Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
  • Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
  • Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

Mariners (3)

  • J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
  • Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM

Marlins (9)

  • Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM /  $6.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
  • Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
  • Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
  • Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
  • Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM

Mets (13)

  • Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
  • Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
  • J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
  • Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
  • Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
  • Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
  • Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
  • Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
  • Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
  • Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K

Nationals (3)

  • Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
  • Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM

Orioles (6)

  • Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
  • Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
  • Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
  • Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
  • Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
  • Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM

Padres (8)

  • Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
  • Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
  • Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
  • Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM

Phillies (6)

  • Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
  • Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
  • Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
  • Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
  • Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM

Pirates (15)

  • Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
  • Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
  • Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
  • Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
  • Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
  • Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
  • Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Chris Stratton – $800K /  $1.2MM / $800K
  • Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
  • Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM

Rangers (4)

  • Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
  • Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
  • Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM

Rays (8)

  • Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
  • Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
  • Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
  • Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
  • Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
  • Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
  • Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM

Red Sox (7)

  • Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
  • Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
  • Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
  • Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K

Reds (9)

  • Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
  • Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
  • Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
  • Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
  • Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
  • Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
  • Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM

Rockies (13)

  • Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
  • Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
  • Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
  • Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
  • Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
  • Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
  • Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
  • Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
  • Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
  • Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM

Royals (9)

  • Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
  • Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
  • Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
  • Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
  • Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
  • Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
  • Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K

Tigers (9)

  • Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
  • Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
  • Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
  • Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
  • Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
  • Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM

Twins (7)

  • Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
  • Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
  • Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
  • Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
  • Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
  • Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM

White Sox (7)

  • Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM

Yankees (11)

  • Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
  • Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
  • Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
  • Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
  • Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
  • Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
  • Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
  • Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM
Show all

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