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Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers face major competition in the AL West. Have they done enough to field a competitive roster in 2020?

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers entered the winter seeking to end a three-season malaise. Having scored another new ballpark after just 26 seasons in their old one, the Texas organization was looking to ramp up the level of play at an opportune moment for business.

It’s tough to look at the unit compiled by longtime baseball ops chief Jon Daniels and see a division winner. The Astros are far the better team on paper; the Athletics and Angels look significantly stronger as well. But putting together a certain contender was never really a plausible goal, barring a wild spending spree. The Rangers’ hope was to ensure a competitive product and to get the arrow pointed back north, all while setting the stage for yet more strides in 2021 and beyond.

The Rangers’ preferred outcome was to land a blue-chip free agent in Texas native Anthony Rendon. But the price tag flew through the roof in the course of wild, Scott Boras-led Winter Meetings bidding. Trade possibilities — Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant — were at least explored, but nothing came to fruition. The Rangers weren’t as excited to chase the older Josh Donaldson as many expected; ultimately, the club wasn’t involved much at all in his bidding.

Plan B, we now know, was to add a bunch of starting pitching and a much more affordable veteran at the hot corner. Todd Frazier is no longer an All-Star-level performer, but the 34-year-old was something like a 2 WAR performer last year in semi-regular duty. The Rangers can deploy him at either corner infield spot and hope for much the same — solid glovework and slightly above-average hitting. Frazier looks like a pretty strong value for just five million bucks. That’s particularly true after looking at the big money secured by Mike Moustakas. Frazier’s salary is close to what the club would’ve spent on Nomar Mazara had they not shipped him along to the White Sox.

So how about that rotation? The Rangers have had awful luck with homegrown starters in recent years. But they’ve had much more success with a certain sort of free agent signing. The standard thinking goes that you don’t want to give any more guaranteed years than necessary to get a free agent pitcher that comes with questions regarding health and/or consistency. The Rangers have flipped that on its head, using longer but relatively affordable deals to lure a series of veterans. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have amply rewarded the club for its faith and helped to remind that there can be upside to the team in expanding a contract’s length.

Sure enough, the Texas org did it again, inking righty Kyle Gibson to a three-year deal just like those awarded to Minor and Lynn. And much the same reasoning went into the surprising two-year deal the Rangers gave Jordan Lyles. If Gibson can return to peak form after battling stomach issues last year, and Lyles can carry forward some of the spark he showed in the second half of 2019, the Rangers could have another set of pretty nice contracts on their hands. The risks here are equally obvious, and the Rangers still need to figure out a way to raise their own starters, but even if one or both turn out to be duds the cost won’t be exorbitant.

It seemed for a moment as if this might be the extent of the pitching adds. But the Rangers doubled down on the veterans with a rather significant swap that has flown under the radar to some degree. The club swung a deal for Corey Kluber, who was one of the game’s preeminent hurlers for a five-year stretch before a comebacker fractured his forearm last year. While it cost fireballing young reliever Emmanuel Clase, which could sting in its own right, the swap is loaded with upside for Texas. Kluber is only slated to earn $17.5MM for 2020 and can be kept for a second season at $18MM (or dropped with a $1MM buyout if things don’t work out).

Put it all together, and the rotation actually looks to be quite the high-risk/high-reward outfit. It’s unusual to see such a collection of accomplished veterans all earning sizeable but hardly monumental salaries. The Rangers will have to hope the five-man unit stays healthy, because the top depth options — Kolby Allard, Ariel Jurado, Joe Palumbo — are far from sure things.

It’s arguably a hit-or-miss bullpen as well, but with a different makeup. As usual, the Rangers found someone to bring back from Japan. This time, it’s lefty Joely Rodriguez, who’ll pair with youngster Brett Martin to form what could be a nice 1-2 southpaw punch … but which could also fall flat. Top late-inning arms Jose Leclerc and Rafael Montero (yes, the former Mets prospect) had dominant stretches last year but have been anything but consistent. Youngster Demarcus Evans brings some upside of his own and there are a number of experienced hurlers on the 40-man (Jesse Chavez, Nick Goody, Luke Farrell) or in camp (Cody Allen, Derek Law, Juan Nicasio, Luis Garcia, Edinson Volquez, Brian Flynn). But there are plenty of questions in the relief unit.

To get the most out of the staff and to bring some thump from behind the dish, the Rangers righted a previous wrong by bringing back catcher Robinson Chirinos. He’s a nice get on a one-year commitment. While he’s closing in on his 36th birthday, Chirinos has been a steadily above-average hitter and was entrusted with the bulk of the work behind the plate last year for the powerhouse Astros.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s hard to escape the cross-state rivals in Houston when it comes to assessing the Rangers’ offseason work. There’s just so much talent on that roster. The position-player unit in Arlington isn’t nearly as imposing. The Rangers can hope that Joey Gallo builds upon his big 2019 showing. Perhaps Willie Calhoun will ensconce himself as a quality big leaguer. Maybe the Elvis Andrus–Rougned Odor middle-infield pairing will finally play to the level the team hoped when it extended both players. It’s possible Danny Santana will not stop hitting and/or that Nick Solak will fully establish himself in the majors. But … for all of those things to happen? It’d be a big surprise. This lineup would look a lot more fierce with another star or two plugged in.

All things considered, the Rangers look to have compiled a fairly middle-of-the-road unit for the 2020 season. There are scenarios where the roster plays up — particularly in a short-season format in which depth questions aren’t as likely to be presented.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason? (Poll link for app users.)

Rookie Radar: NL Central

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We’ve already run through the NL West, the NL East, the AL West and the AL Central in our look at some of the up-and-coming talent that figures to step into the Major League spotlight whenever play resumes. Let’s take a run through the NL Central…

Chicago Cubs

Nico Hoerner is the most interesting name to watch. The 2018 first-rounder skyrocketed through the system to make his MLB debut late last season, and while his .282/.305/.436 output didn’t exactly set the world on fire, it capped an impressive rise for a 22-year-old in his first full pro season. The Cubs hope there’s a potential everyday option at second base here. We could also see 27-year-old Robel Garcia and his light-tower power get another audition, though his contact skills (or lack thereof) are a notable red flag.

The organization lacks high-end, MLB-ready pitching prospects, but it wasn’t that long ago that righty Adbert Alzolay was considered to be just that. He was limited by a triceps injury last year and pitched just 81 2/3 innings between the minors and a brief MLB call-up, but his strikeout numbers are intriguing. Other rotation options include Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller and Justin Steele, but no one from the bunch is regarded as a blue chipper.

In the ’pen, expect some combination of James Norwood, Dillon Maples and Duane Underwood Jr. to be called into action as injuries arise. All three are on the 40-man roster.

Cincinnati Reds

Shogo Akiyama will be one of the most interesting “rookies” to watch this season. He’s of course new to the MLB circuit but no stranger to playing professionally, having starred for Japan’s Seibu Lions over a nine-year career in Nippon Professional Baseball. A career .301/.376/.454 hitter in Japan, Akiyama hit .296 or better with at least a .385 OBP in each of his final five seasons with the Lions.

The Reds are suddenly a somewhat veteran club, so there aren’t many rookies who’ll be trusted with an Opening Day role. Well-regarded catcher Tyler Stephenson could be summoned in the event of an injury to Tucker Barnhart or Curt Casali. Shortstop Jose Garcia drew some eyes with a big spring showing but has yet to reach Double-A. He probably needs some more minor league time.

If a starter goes down, right-hander Tony Santillan has steadily climbed the ranks, although he struggled in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting a year ago. Still, with the Reds set to potentially lose both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani to free agency next winter, they’ll probably want to get a look at Santillan at some point.

The bullpen has a host of potential options — Vladimir Gutierrez, Reiver Sanmartin, Joel Kuhnel and Tejay Antone among them. Gutierrez has worked as a starter but struggled enormously in Triple-A, and his power fastball would seemingly play well in relief. Kuhnel has already made his MLB debut.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers signed 10 Major League free agents this winter, traded for several players who’ll be on the Opening Day roster and don’t have a particularly well-regarded farm. All of that is to say — their rookie contributions might be few and far between. (To be fair, there are some semantics at play here; neither Keston Hiura nor Luis Urias is technically a rookie despite lacking a full season in the Majors. Both are highly intriguing young players.)

Jacob Nottingham might be called upon should Omar Narvaez or Manny Pina fall to injury. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor made his MLB debut last year but is buried behind a host of more experienced options. Former first-round pick Corey Ray has yet to debut but also finds himself on the wrong end of that deep outfield mix. Milwaukee picked up Mark Mathias in a small trade with the Indians and kept the versatile infielder on the 40-man roster, but it might take multiple injuries and/or a huge Triple-A showing to get to the Majors.

Righty Devin Williams leads the pack of bullpen candidates, having debuted with a 3.95 ERA in 13 2/3 frames last year. Right-handers J.P. Feyereisen and Angel Perdomo figure to emerge at some point, too, and waiver claim Eric Yardley provides a left-handed option who posted big numbers in Triple-A with the Padres last season. Rotation candidates include righty Drew Rasmussen, who had a nice year in Double-A in ’19. Trey Supak was rocked in seven Triple-A starts after a solid Double-A showing himself.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Right-hander Mitch Keller barely still qualifies a a rookie and should have a rotation spot for much of the season. Keller, long one of MLB’s premier prospects, was clobbered in his debut effort, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares without the juiced ball and (presumably) without the prior front office/coaching staff’s emphasis on a two-seam fastball.

The Bucs have already talked extension with third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes — one of the game’s best defensive minor leaguers. Hayes didn’t have a great year at the plate in Triple-A in 2019, but he’ll open the season there and should break into the big leagues this year. As the club’s potential third baseman of the future, he’s a definite name to watch.

After that pairing, there’s a drop. Jason Martin and Jared Oliva might get some time in the outfield, and depending on injuries middle infielder Kevin Kramer and first baseman Will Craig are possibilities.

It feels like Nick Burdi has been a prospect forever, but the 27-year-old was healthy and opened some eyes this spring with a good showing. He’s undergone both Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgery but boasts a triple-digit heater when healthy. Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce could see time in the ’pen, as JT Brubaker could in the rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals

Among NL Central prospects who could plausibly debut in 2020, outfielder Dylan Carlson is perhaps the most highly regarded. A consensus top 20 minor leaguer who belted 26 home runs, stole 20 bases and posted a combined OPS north of .900 between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Carlson is viewed as a potential cornerstone piece. He’ll have to stave off Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and fellow rookie Justin Williams, but Carlson has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

Yadier Molina just keeps on going, so there’s little hope of Andrew Knizner seeing meaningful time unless there’s an unfortunate injury to Molina. But Knizner is touted as a potential starting catcher himself and is more or less MLB-ready. Likewise, infielder Edmundo Sosa is ready for an MLB look but lacks an obvious path given the team’s veteran infield mix.

Left-handers Genesis Cabrera and Kwang-Hyun Kim give the Cards a southpaw option both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Kim, long one of the better pitchers in the Korea Baseball Organization, had an eye-opening spring showing. Right-hander Junior Fernandez tops the list of intriguing bullpen candidates thanks to a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors last year and a heater that averaged nearly 97 mph on a brief MLB cup of coffee.

Breakout Candidate: Max Fried

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Max Fried ranked among the Braves’ top prospects from the time they acquired him as the headlining young piece in a trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres until he exhausted his rookie status in 2018. From 2015-17, Fried was considered among the best in a deep system,but he never entered the club’s top five prospects (at either MLB.com or Baseball America) and was at times outranked by Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, Aaron Blair, Joey Wentz, Luiz Gohara and current teammate Mike Soroka. Fried’s outlook is now considerably brighter than most of that bunch, and it’s possible that by the end of the next season — whenever that is — he’ll even have surpassed Soroka as Atlanta’s top arm.

Max Fried

Fried recently turned 26, and although it’s been nearly eight years since San Diego took him with the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and more than five years since Atlanta acquired him, he has just 225 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. Fried underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, slowing his march to the big leagues, and some of the names ranked ahead of him got earlier looks when rotation spots did open up. To this point in his young career, he has a 3.83 ERA and an FIP that’s an exact match. He’s been a quality arm, but the 2019 season was his first full year in the rotation. He produced a 4.02 ERA through 165 2/3 frames.

If you want to argue that Fried has, to an extent, already broken out — that’s defensible. Last year’s ERA, after all, was better than the league average when considering the juiced ball’s impact around the league (and especially given Fried’s hitter-friendly home park). Park- and league-adjusted metrics like ERA- and ERA+ had him anywhere from nine to 16 percent better than the average pitcher. Last year’s 3.72 FIP was 15 percent better than the league average, per FIP-. In all, Fried was worth about three wins above replacement (3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR). He’s clearly already a good pitcher.

The question is whether there’s another gear for Fried to reach. The left-hander ranked 22nd among 75 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings with a solid but not elite K-BB% (18.0). More impressively, he tied for eighth-best with a 3.32 xFIP. Fried’s blend of high-end strikeout rates (9.4 K/9, 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced), walk rates (2.6 BB/9, 6.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (53.6%) all contribute to him faring well in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics.

Looking at his individual pitches, Fried upped his four-seam velocity to a career-best 93.8 mph average in 2019. That’s particularly strong for a lefty, as southpaws tend to have lower average velocities than their right-handed peers. It’s a low-spin offering, however, and Fried’s pedestrian swinging-strike rate on that four-seamer reflects that. He does locate the pitch well, and his improved ability to work ahead in the count — his first-pitch strike rate jumped from 57.8 percent in 2018 to 63.7 percent in 2019 — allowed him to use his curveball more often. Fried’s curveball was lauded as his best pitch during his prospect days (one of the best curves in all of minor league baseball, for that matter), and he demonstrated why in 2019.

Only eight pitchers in the game garnered more swinging-strikes on their curves in 2019, and while it’s true that Fried threw more hooks than the average pitcher, his 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate topped quality curveballs like those of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray, aligning more closely with the whiff rates of Stephen Strasburg (15.3 percent) and Charlie Morton (16.4 percent). Fried also generated a called strike on 18 percent of his curveballs; just over one third of the time that he threw the pitch, it resulted in a strike without the ball being put into play.

The curveball was always supposed to be Fried’s bread and butter, but he broke out a slider in 2019 that looks to be equally effective — if not even better. Hitters whiffed on the new pitch at a 15.3 percent clip that nearly matched his curve, and they chased it out of the strike zone at a 41 percent rate — the best of all his offerings. Fried’s spin on the slider isn’t at the elite levels of his curve, but it ranked in the 76th percentile. Opponents batted .212/.241/.327 when putting his curve into play and .200/.230/.331 when putting his slider into play. Not bad for a pitch he’d literally never thrown in a big league game until March 28, 2019.

When hitters did make contact against Fried, the quality of said contact wasn’t particularly impressive. Per Statcast, Fried allowed hitters to barrel just 4.4 percent of the pitches put into play against him, ranking 16th of 242 pitchers. Opponents batted .270/.324/.419 against Fried in 2019, which translated to a .315 wOBA. But based on the quality of contact he allowed and his strong K/BB numbers, Statcast projected a .297 expected wOBA for Fried. That 18-point gap between his actual wOBA and his xwOBA was the 34th-largest among 242 big league pitchers (with most who ranked ahead of him being pitchers who were shelled at an unsustainable rate in the first place — not quality performers).

The pitching-rich Braves still have more arms on the way. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright highlight their current crop of minor league arms. Soroka, of course, is a highly talented pitcher in his own right — evidenced by a runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting a sixth-place nod in 2019 Cy Young balloting. It’s easy for Fried to get a little lost in the shuffle after Soroka’s electric debut and the constant hype surrounding their rich farm system. But it seems very possible that we’ve yet to see the best Fried has to offer, and there’s reason to think that his best will be enough to push him into the upper echelon of NL starters.

MLBTR Originals: 3/23/20 – 3/29/20

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Even with the baseball world shut down, MLB Trade Rumors is still covering any breaking news and also exploring some other topics.  Here’s the roundup of the week’s original content from the MLBTR staff….

  • Jeff Todd profiled different topics every weekday on MLBTR’s YouTube series, with this week’s entries covering the agreement between players and the league about how baseball’s business will be conducted during the 2020 season, looks back at both Joe Mauer’s 2010 extension with the Twins and the 2015 trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, plus career retrospectives on Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes.
  • Speaking of looks back, the GM Trade History series allows us to review the trades made by past and current general managers from around the game, detailing years’ worth of major and minor deals…not to mention some seemingly minor trades that suddenly look major in hindsight.  The first five executives featured are Jeff Bridich (Rockies), Billy Eppler (Angels), David Stearns (Brewers), Mike Hazen (Diamondbacks), and former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.
  • The White Sox and Cubs don’t often link up on trades, but the most recent swap between the Windy City rivals was a doozy.  Anthony Franco breaks down the July 2017 trade that sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs for a four-prospect package headlined by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, a deal that now looks like one of the cornerstones of the White Sox rebuild.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series continued with examinations of what the Brewers and Rockies each did over the winter.
  • Since the offseason has now been unexpectedly and indefinitely continued due to the COVID-19 pandemic, MLBTR is looking at how the delayed season will impact individual teams.  This week’s featured clubs: the Phillies and Angels.
  • The delay is also pushing back our first extended look at several rookies who could be impact players for their teams.  Steve Adams, Darragh McDonald, and Jeff Todd fired up the Rookie Radar to seek out some of the top youngsters in the NL East, NL West, AL West, and AL Central.
  • Rangers slugger Willie Calhoun and Reds right-hander Robert Stephenson have already walked the path from star prospect to established big leaguer, though could either player be primed to take a further step if or when the 2020 season gets underway?  Connor Byrne profiles Stephenson, while Anthony Franco examines Calhoun.
  • From breakout candidates to rebound candidates, as Connor Byrne looks at three veterans hoping to bounce back from disappointing 2019 seasons.  Reds star Joey Votto is looking to get on track in his age-36 season, while Justin Smoak is looking for a fresh start after signing with the Brewers, and Alex Wood is likewise hoping to recover his past form on a new (old?) team, the Dodgers.

GM Trade History: Rockies’ Jeff Bridich

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game.  After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, and the Angels’ Billy Eppler, let’s head to Denver to look at Rockies GM Jeff Bridich.  Since he was promoted to the job in October 2014, here are Bridich’s trades (in chronological order and excluding minor deals; full details at transaction link.)

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

  • None

 

How would you grade Bridich’s history in trades?  (Poll link for app users)

Transaction Retrospection: Jose Quintana/Eloy Jimenez Trade

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Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of Eloy Jiménez’s MLB debut. With that in mind, it’s an interesting time to look back at the blockbuster crosstown deal that brought the 23-year-old slugger to the South Side.

Jiménez wasn’t the headlining name of that July 2017 swap. That was José Quintana, with good reason. The southpaw had emerged as one of the game’s most consistent, reliable starters. True, he always played second fiddle to Chris Sale, but he was perhaps the game’s preeminent #2. Over the three-plus seasons preceding the deal, Quintana combined for a 3.47 ERA/3.31 FIP with no injury history to speak of. Equally as appealing, the hurler was controlled at well below market rates through 2020 thanks to an early-career extension.

The appeal for the Cubs was apparent. They had a superlative position player core that had carried them to the 2016 World Series. The starting rotation was already a strength, but one with some question marks on the horizon. Jake Arrieta and John Lackey were each approaching free agency, and it was fair to wonder for how much longer Jon Lester could post ace-level production. Locking in a cheap, young rotation stalwart like Quintana made perfect sense for that season and beyond.

It came at a hefty price. Jiménez, Baseball America’s #14 prospect entering that season, centered the package for the White Sox. Alongside him came another top 100 prospect, flamethrowing right-hander Dylan Cease. It was easy to see the South Siders’ thinking, too. Never able to build a competent roster around Sale, Quintana, Adam Eaton and José Abreu, the Sox had already pivoted to a teardown. Abreu stuck around, but the rest of the core was shipped off for future assets. It was a fascinating, if mutually-understandable swap, with the clubs’ crosstown rivalry no doubt adding intrigue. How have things actually played out?

To some extent, as expected. Quintana has remained remarkably durable and taken the ball every fifth day. That’s been especially useful for a team whose concerns about its long-term pitching outlook have generally proven true. Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Quintana have each been dependable, while big ticket free agent Yu Darvish has had some extreme highs and lows.

Despite a deluge of recent early-round picks on college arms, though, the Cubs haven’t established any sort of pitching pipeline from the farm system to supplement that quartet. On the one hand, that lack of cheap, in-house pitching makes acquiring Quintana all the more meaningful. Yet it’s also played some role in keeping the Cubs from reaching the dynastic heights some had anticipated.

Since the deal, the Cubs have been solid, but not quite at the level one could’ve reasonably hoped for. That characterization also applies to Quintana himself. The Colombian lefty has given the Cubs 400+ innings of 4.23 ERA/3.95 FIP ball. That’s about league average production on a rate basis. With his exceptional durability, he’s a valuable pitcher, especially relative to his contract. But he hasn’t pitched at the level he showed on the other side of town. Now 31, Quintana’s entering the final season (assuming there is a season) of the aforementioned extension. He’s a plausible but uncertain candidate for a qualifying offer next winter, which could allow the Cubs to add a draft pick.

Even if Quintana does net a compensatory pick, that player won’t project to be anywhere near the level of Jiménez. (That, of course, is what the Cubs expected, since there was always going to be a high price to pay for a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber). Not only did Jiménez continue to thrive in the White Sox’s system, he’s already found major league success.

Last season, Jiménez hit .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs in 504 plate appearances. He’s not without his flaws; he didn’t rate well in left field and could perhaps stand to be a little more patient at the plate. Yet there’s no questioning Jiménez’s massive power upside, and he certainly looks the part of a potential middle-of-the-order force. Clearly, the White Sox expect him to be just that, having inked him to a $43MM guarantee that could keep him in Chicago through 2026. So continues the long line of early-career extensions the organization has amassed in recent years. Those deals (Quintana’s included) have paid huge dividends on the whole.

Cease, too, has a shot at emerging as a long-term asset. He raised his stock immediately after the trade with a strong season and a half in the minors. That didn’t translate in his first 14 MLB starts last season, but there are things to dream on. Cease posted a solid 24.9% strikeout rate as a rookie while averaging 96.5 MPH on his fastball. His is a higher-variance profile than Jiménez’s, but the Sox surely hope he can emerge as a useful arm in the near future, even if as a reliever.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s probably fair to say the Cubs wouldn’t make this deal again. It was a perfectly defensible move at the time, and Quintana has capably filled a key need on the roster. It’s not a disaster, as a few of the front office’s free agent moves have been. But Quintana’s slight regression on the North Side, combined with Jiménez’s continued blossoming offensively, looks to have tipped the scales in the White Sox’s favor.

Breakout Candidate: Willie Calhoun

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Willie Calhoun was up and down between the majors and Triple-A quite a few times between 2017 and the first half of 2019. Last June, he got his long-awaited opportunity to play every day, emerging as the Rangers’ starting left fielder. He made the most of it at the plate, hitting .269/.323/.524 (110 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 337 plate appearances. Yet even those solid results seem to belie an impressive, exceedingly rare skillset. Very few players can match Calhoun’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.

Last year, Calhoun made contact on 85.4% of his swings; he swung and missed at just 7.2% of total pitches he saw, per Fangraphs. Both those marks are well better than the respective league averages of 76.2% and 11.1%. That places Calhoun among the top 30 or 40 contact hitters in the game- very good, if not quite exceptional. However, unlike many of the game’s bat control artists, Calhoun is also capable of doing damage. His 89.7 MPH average exit velocity would have placed him in the 63rd percentile leaguewide had he amassed enough plate appearances to qualify, per Statcast.

Combining elite bat-to-ball skills and above-average power on contact is tougher than one might expect. In 2019, only D.J. LeMahieu, Nick Markakis, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner had both a lower swinging strike rate and higher average exit velocity than did Calhoun (minimum 300 plate appearances). That’s an eye-catching assortment of names. It’s not a guarantee that Calhoun’s about to emerge as one of the game’s best hitters; Markakis, for instance, was merely average last year. But it does at least confirm Calhoun has a pair of key traits in common with many of the game’s best bats.

Maybe it isn’t surprising Calhoun seems to have massive offensive upside. He raked throughout his minor-league career, and scouts have long lauded his potential at the plate. There’s a reason Calhoun, while a prospect, headlined Texas’ return package for prime Yu Darvish despite concerns about his defense (which have also ultimately proven true). He’s a LF/DH at this point, so he’ll have to rake to warrant continued playing time.

To unlock the next gear offensively, the 25-year-old could stand to be a bit more selective. It seems reasonable to project that coming. After all, he’s only been an everyday big leaguer for half a season. He won’t ever be confused for Joey Votto, but given his other attributes, he needn’t be. Even a small progression in pitch selection could go a long way.

Calhoun should get every opportunity to cement himself as a middle-of-the-order force in Texas. While a scary hit-by-pitch fractured his jaw earlier this month, the most recent indication is that he’s recovering well.

Extension Candidates: AL Central

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It’s now official: MLB rosters are frozen. We won’t see any players coming and going for some times. And it’s unlikely that any new long-term extensions will be announced. But that doesn’t mean such deals won’t be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, and AL West. To round things out, here are some possible extension candidates from the AL Central …

Indians

Francisco Lindor is the big story. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed: he informed the team he’d like to halt talks since the sides weren’t making progress. Unless there’s a change of heart and another attempt during the current pause, Lindor is not going to sign onto a long-term deal (at least, before he has reached his final season of arbitration eligibility later in 2020).

There are a few other interesting candidates. Top hurlers Mike Clevinger and Brad Hand would be of interest, but the Cleveland org may not be able to afford these high-end veterans. Perhaps a few others would be more achievable targets for the cost-efficient Indians. Outfielder Oscar Mercado has only 139 days of service under his belt, meaning he’s two full seasons away from likely Super Two arbitration qualification. Young starters Shane Bieber and Adam Plutko are each in the 1+ service class, so they shouldn’t cost all that much and could convey significant upside.

Royals

There are certainly some interesting questions for the K.C. organization to consider. Slugger Jorge Soler had an eye-popping 2019 … but is he going to keep it going and should the team lock into a player who profiles best as a DH? And how about exciting young shortstop Adalberto Mondesi? There’s no real limit to his ceiling but he had some struggles last year and is still working back from a shoulder injury.

The situation is equally uncertain on the pitching side. Righty Brad Keller has had success through two full MLB seasons but isn’t exactly a top-of-the-rotation arm. You could perhaps make a case for relievers Scott Barlow and Tim Hill, though there doesn’t seem to be a pressing reason to push for a deal with either.

Tigers

The Detroit MLB roster turned in a roundly awful 2019 season. But it still has a few potential targets. The versatile Niko Goodrum could be a part of quite a few rosters around the game, though there’s no particular need to lock into him for the long haul. There are more interesting candidates on the pitching side: starter Matthew Boyd and reliever Joe Jimenez. The former has a whole lot of upside and three more seasons of team control remaining; perhaps the club could take a bit of a gamble. As for Jimenez, 2020 is something of a boom or bust year — rack up a lot of saves and he’ll get a big first-time arbitration payday; stumble and he may not do very well at all. Perhaps he and the club could take share the risk over a longer term.

It’s probably a bit too soon to consider the top of the farm system for deals. But this time next winter, the Tigers could have a host of interesting candidates.

Twins

Both of last winter’s extensions turned out well; the team struck again more recently with Miguel Sano. Perhaps the most obvious remaining candidate is quality young righty Jose Berrios, who is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility. Now that he’s in line for bigger money, it’ll cost more to do a deal. The sides have struck out in previous talks. Byron Buxton is also a 3+ service-class player. There’s likely too much uncertainty in his outlook to structure a deal, but it’s not out of the question.

It’s tempting to stake out a case for a deal with breakout catcher Mitch Garver, but he’s already 29 years of age and still a full season away from arbitration eligibility. Outfielder Eddie Rosario is two seasons from the open market, but that also gives him greater leverage for a higher price tag. Would the Twins really want to commit?

How about a few wild cards? Infielder Luis Arraez should at least be a nice utility player for years to come. There might be upside in an early deal for the plate-discipline magician. And reliever Taylor Rogers is another interesting target. He’s still three seasons from free agency but gets more impressive with each successive campaign. The Twins will owe him a big raise on his $4.45MM salary if he keeps racking up saves; perhaps a deal could suit both sides.

White Sox

The South Siders have already extended a wide swath of their roster. You might wonder whether there are any candidates left. But the team is exceptionally aggressive in this arena and can’t be counted out on exploring deals with just about anyone of interest.

The most obvious candidate at this point is righty Lucas Giolito. We recently broke down his case for an extension. You could perhaps argue for fellow starters Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease, or even injury rehabbers Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon, but there’s likely too much uncertainty in each of those situations for the sides to see eye to eye. The same is true of outfielder Nomar Mazara.

If you’re looking for a sleeper candidate … how about second baseman Nick Madrigal? The Sox haven’t been shy at all with pre-MLB extensions and the former fourth-overall pick is just about ready for a run at the game’s highest level.

Rookie Radar: NL East

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has recently taken a look at some potential impact rookies throughout the AL Central and AL West. Steve Adams handled the NL West. Now let’s move on to the NL East, which was one of the strongest divisions in baseball in 2019, with four teams finishing .500 or above. 2020 figures to be just as competitive. Perhaps a strong rookie season could be a difference-maker for one of these teams. Who could it be? Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Braves

The Braves already have a crowded outfield at the big league level. But if any kind of opportunity should present itself, Cristian Pache is going to be waiting in the wings. The 21-year-old has received more praise for his defense and speed than for his offense. But his bat seemed to turn a corner in 2019. Over 433 plate appearances at Double-A, he put up a slash line of .278/.340/.474, good enough for a wRC+ of 134. His Triple-A numbers aren’t as strong, with a line of .274/.337/.411 and a wRC+ of 92. That was over a smaller sample of 105 plate appearances, though, and he was only 20 years old.

Pache could have competition in the form of fellow outfield prospect Drew Waters, who is following a similar trajectory. Waters was also 20 last year and spent the bulk of the season at Double-A, where he managed a lofty 144 wRC+. He also had a cup of coffee at Triple-A, where his wRC+ dropped to 84 at Triple-A. While both Pache and Waters while played 26 games at Triple-A, Waters dwarfed Pache in the strikeout column, 43 to 18.

On the pitching side, the Braves have a pile of young arms who are slated to be in Triple-A to start the year, fighting to be the first one to get the call. The 24-year-old Kyle Wright has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to translate it into success at the big league level yet. It’s a similar story for 22-year-old Bryse Wilson. Ian Anderson is only 21 and isn’t on the 40-man, but he has already been bumped up to Triple-A after dominating in Double-A.

Marlins

The rebuilding Marlins already have lots of promising youngsters on the roster right now, and there are more on the way. Sixto Sanchez hasn’t reached Triple-A yet, but after dominating in Double-A with a 2.53 ERA over 103 innings, it’s possible he won’t need too much time there. Same goes for Edward Cabrera, whose Double-A ERA was just a smidge higher at 2.56, though in a smaller sample of 38 2/3 innings. Evaluators are split as to which of the two should be ranked higher. If you’re the Marlins, that’s a good problem to have.

In terms of position players, the most exciting options are outfielders. Jesus Sanchez has a tremendous bat but lacks plate discipline. Monte Harrison’s defensive skills give him a decent floor. But the bat will need to take another step for him to reach his ceiling. He put up a decent line of  .274/.357/.451 in Triple-A in 2019, good enough for a wRC+ of 97, just below league average.

Mets

The Mets’ rotation took a big hit when it was announced that Noah Syndergaard will undergo Tommy John Surgery. And while they may turn to veterans like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo to pick up the slack, they could also look to some of the rookies they have in the minors. David Peterson hasn’t reached Triple-A just yet, but he threw 116 Double-A innings in 2019, with an ERA of 4.19 and 9.47 K/9. Franklyn Kilome missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, but he was the Mets’ fifth-best prospect at that point. Stephen Gonsalves was once a highly-touted prospect in the Twins’ system, though an injury-plagued 2019 led to them losing him to the Mets on waivers. He’s still 25 and could be a wild-card factor if he can get healthy and regain his form.

As far as position players go, shortstop Andres Gimenez is an exciting prospect (mostly because of his speed and defense). The 21-year-old swiped 66 bags from 2018-19, so the big question is how he’ll do with the bat. Gimenez spent 2019 at Double-A, slashing a mediocre .250/.309/.387, but he’s still young. And since the Mets have plenty of middle infield options such as Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil and maybe even Jed Lowrie, it will be difficult for Gimenez to contribute as soon as 2020.

Nationals

For the Nats, the most important rookie is definitely Carter Kieboom, one of the best prospects in baseball. The infielder had an excellent 2019 at the Triple-A level, slashing .303/.409/.493 for a wRC+ of 123. The 22-year-old wasn’t able to carry those numbers into his MLB debut last season, but it was only an 11-game sample size.

With Anthony Rendon moving to California, there’s an opening for Kieboom to be the everyday third baseman. He’ll have to earn it because the Nats brought back Asdrubal Cabrera as a fallback option, but they’d surely prefer for the 22-year-old Kieboom to take the job. That would enable the Nats to use Cabrera in a utility role.

Phillies

Alec Bohm’s calling card is his bat. As a 22-year-old in 2019, he played 22 games in A-ball and produced a wRC+  of 196. In A+, he played 40 games with a wRC+ of 165. In 63 games at Double-A, the wRC+ was 146. If he can keep hitting in Triple-A, the question will be where to put him. Bohm mostly plays third, but many evaluators feel that his defense is too weak for the hot corner and suggest a move to first. The Phillies would surely love for Bohm to prove those evaluators wrong because they have Rhys Hoskins entrenched at first. Their current plan for the rest of the infield is to deploy Jean Segura at third, Didi Gregorius at short and Scott Kingery at second. But since Segura can also play shortstop or second, Bohm could nudge his way into the picture if any one of them goes down with an injury.

On the mound, the big name to watch is Spencer Howard. Despite injuries limiting his total output in 2019, he still put up great numbers when healthy. In 30 2/3 innings at Double-A, his ERA was 2.35. And Howard, 23, capped off his season with 21 1/3 innings of 2.11 ERA ball in the Arizona Fall League. The Philly rotation is a bit flimsy, with guys like Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin keeping a tenuous hold on back-end spots, so a healthy Howard could shove his way into the equation.

Extension Candidates: AL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, and AL East. Here are some possible extension candidates from the AL West …

Angels

It seems the Halos have some level of interest in trying to keep peerless defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons from reaching the open market. He’d be quite an interesting player to value after a down, injury-filled year. If he can continue producing otherworldly defensive work in 2020 while returning to league-average hitting, he’d be a fascinating player to watch in free agency.

There are a few other guys nearing free agency that could be considered. Tommy La Stella had a breakout in an injury-shortened 2019 season. He’s already 31 and there’ll be questions about sustainability. But perhaps the sides could share the risk and upside with a relatively modest accord. Reliever Hansel Robles and starter Andrew Heaney are both two years from free agency, though there’s no particular reason to rush into a commitment in either case.

Things get quite a bit more interesting when you look at players much further from the open market. Shohei Ohtani put a ton of faith in himself when he came to the majors for a pittance of a bonus. His two-way ability and near-limitless upside on the mound make him a highly intriguing extension candidate, though sorting out a fair value won’t be straightforward. There’s a clear map for a deal for elite outfield prospect Jo Adell, if both sides are interested, as the White Sox have reached successive pre-debut pacts with Eloy Jimenez ($43MM) and Luis Robert ($50MM). Beyond Ohtani and Adell, the Angels could consider much more modest pacts with utilityman David Fletcher and/or reliever Ty Buttrey.

Astros

There’s an abundance of star power to contemplate for a Houston organization in turmoil. Most pressing: outfielder George Springer, who’s entering his final year of arbitration. This is the final window to get a deal done; whether that’s a realistic possibility isn’t known. Not far behind him is shortstop Carlos Correa, who is two years from the open market. His huge ceiling and more modest recent play make this a suboptimal time to work out a deal, unless both sides are in the mood for compromise.

The ’Stros have a pair of slugging young left-handed hitters that could conceivably be candidates for aggressive early extensions. Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene last year, but he has had a balky knee this spring and is mostly viewed as a DH. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker is a surefire big leaguer with star upside, but he’s rather less established. On the pitching side, the Astros could potentially chase value by holding talks with Jose Urquidy, Josh James, or even Bryan Abreu. It may be early in all of those cases, but this organization did reach a then-unprecedented deal with Jon Singleton.

Athletics

The Oakland org has a bunch of candidates that leap off of the page in just about every service class. After a monster 2019 season, shortstop Marcus Semien is slated to reach free agency at the end of 2020. It would probably take a franchise-record deal to keep him from testing the market. Perhaps there’s more room to work out a palatable price tag with reliever Liam Hendriks, who has emerged as one of the game’s most effective relievers since being designated for assignment and then called back up late in the 2018 season. Outfielder Mark Canha had his own recent breakout; perhaps he’s also a candidate with two years left until free agency.

What the A’s really hoped for was a pair of long-term pacts with corner infielders Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. But both were not wooed by prior efforts and they’re both now within a season of arbitration. There is certainly still a window, but the Oakland organization will really have to open the wallet. Striking major pacts with either or both (not to mention Semien) would mark a big vote of confidence in the team’s plans for a new ballpark.

Further down the line in terms of service class are a host of intriguing candidates. Outfielder Ramon Laureano, catcher Sean Murphy, and prized southpaws Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk all carry eyebrow-raising talent. They’re also already controlled for quite some time. But this may be the optimal point for the A’s to achieve big value with a few of those players.

Mariners

Having already inked lefty Marco Gonzales and pre-MLB first baseman Evan White, the M’s have already accounted for their most obvious candidates. And the best of the rest aren’t likely in consideration this winter. Mitch Haniger still needs to get back to full health; top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are probably a bit too green for even an aggressive deal.

But there are a few more to consider. Shed Long and J.P. Crawford each had solid showings last year and could make sense at the right price. Perhaps the Mariners could even consider less-experienced outfielders Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley, though that’d make for a surprise in either case. It’s frankly difficult even to suggest another candidate; reliever Austin Adams could’ve been of some interest but he’s rehabbing a major knee injury.

Rangers

You could make a case for a few guys here. Young slugger Willie Calhoun might be a worthwhile target after a strong 2019 showing, though it took the club some time to find him a spot in the majors and he’s now nursing a broken jaw. Veteran starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn are nearing free agency, with the former entering his walk year, though the Texas org already took on some pitching risk this winter and may not want to over-extend itself with older hurlers.

Really, the Texas extension situation is all about one man: slugging outfielder/first baseman Joey Gallo. The game’s preeminent three-true-outcomes batter, Gallo is in his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns, so he has entered the big earning stage of his career but hasn’t yet been paid huge money. He was limited by injury (oblique, hamate) in 2019 but put up monster numbers when available, with 22 long balls and a .253/.389/.598 slash over 297 plate appearances. It’s easy to forget that Gallo is a valuable outfield defender and baserunner, making him one of the higher-ceiling all-around players in the game.

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