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10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

Losing Thor

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We were all dealing with much more significant problems when the shocking news came down: Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ high-octane hurler, was headed in for Tommy John surgery. That would’ve hit like a ton of bricks — just two days before Opening Day — had it not been for the fact that the season was already on pause.

The replacement of Thor’s ulnar collateral ligament will hopefully save his career. But it’ll wipe out his age-27 season, severely denting the hopes of the Mets in 2020 (should the campaign get underway). The hope had been that Syndergaard would trend back towards his immense ceiling, giving the team the game’s best 1-2 punch alongside uber-ace Jacob deGrom.

But that’s really only part of the picture for the Mets — the toughest, but also the simplest part. The club has no choice but to soldier on and trust in the arms it has compiled. There’s no changing course in late March. But what of the longer view?

The Mets will certainly tender Syndergaard a contract for 2021, his final season of arbitration eligibility, unless there’s a serious red flag in his rehab efforts. That’ll cost $9.7MM, a match for his 2020 salary. Even if the Mets only get something like half of a season from Syndergaard, he’s almost certainly worth that kind of risk. And the team would be buying the right to make him a qualifying offer — and, if he declines it, to accrue draft compensation — at season’s end.

But wait … we’re basically now contemplating Syndergaard as something of a ten million dollar roll of the dice on upside. It typically takes about 14 months for a starter to get back to full competitive action after undergoing the surgery, which would put him on track to resume action in June of 2021. And Syndergaard will have as much personal incentive to take full care in getting back to the hill as he will to perform well when he does, as he’ll be preparing for free agency. When GM Brodie Van Wagenen plotted his recent moves, including bidding adieu to Zack Wheeler, the idea was to have a full 2021 season of Syndergaard and deGrom. Instead, it’ll be deGrom, a hopeful mid-season return of Thor, and … let’s see what else …

The notion of an in-house Wheeler replacement, in the form of Marcus Stroman, made some amount of sense in the context of the 2020 campaign. But Stroman is now headed for his own trip on the open market, likely after turning down a qualifying offer. There’s no indication that the sides have gained traction in extension talks (if they’ve seriously engaged in them at all). Recent signees Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are only playing on one-year deals, so they’ll also be free agents.

Adding Stroman cost the Mets a near-majors prospect in Anthony Kay and a potential fast riser in Simeon Woods Richardson. The club had already moved another immediate-term rotation candidate in Justin Dunn, who went to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Cano deal.

[MLBTR on YouTube: Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Diaz & Cano] 

Those moves have left the upper reaches of the Mets farm relatively barren of well-regarded rotation talent. David Peterson, Thomas Szapucki, Franklyn Kilome, and Kevin Smith are among the best arms in the system who could be part of the 2021 rotation picture. But they’ll all lost major developmental opportunities due to the coronavirus. There are a few other somewhat more advanced hurlers, as we discussed in evaluating the team’s rotation depth this spring, but the general talent level is rated at a step below the names just listed. It’s awfully tough to presume that the Mets will feel comfortable leaning on this group.

The biggest wild card may be Steven Matz, whose ups and downs are well-documented. He has been healthy enough to make thirty starts in each of the past two seasons, carrying a sturdy 4.09 ERA across that span, but fielding-independent pitching measures aren’t nearly as bullish on Matz as they once were. In 2019, he generated a 4.60 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA — all checking in north of his 4.21 ERA.

If something goes wrong with Matz, the Mets could be looking at opening the 2021 season with four new rotation pieces alongside deGrom. Even with the prospect of a heroic return of Thor buoying the team mid-campaign, that’s a tough picture for an organization that has enjoyed so much excellence from its staff. On the plus side, there will be a lot of money available to work with … depending upon how you look at things.

The Mets were set to enter the 2020 season with just under $175MM of payroll; they’re committed for about $100MM less for 2021. That’s good! But it doesn’t include arbitration spending. With Syndergaard, Matz, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and others, this could be a $40-45MM arbitration class. That would move the total payroll into the $120MM range.

Either way, there should in theory be some funds to work with, though it’s anyone’s guess what’ll be happening with the team’s uncertain ownership situation and how that will weigh on the situation. Thing is, the Mets will also have quite a few holes to fill. Adding as many as four reliable starters just isn’t easy to do on the cheap. The Mets also figure to have openings at catcher, in center field, and in a bullpen that will lose Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach.

This is a tough spot for the Mets. In a normal season, they’d probably adjust their mid-season trade stance to being more willing to sell. If the campaign isn’t developing quite as hoped, there’d be an opportunity to cash in Stroman and perhaps others to help prepare for 2021. But we have no idea whether that’ll really be possible in a highly unusual 2020 season format (the details of which remain completely unknown at this point). And it’d hurt to take a seller stance after building up to contend.

The Mets were dealt a tough hand here; the loss of Syndergaard really stings even beyond 2020. Suppose he had pitched well in 2020 but the team went south in other areas; he’d have been a prime mid-season or offseason trade chip. Or what if things do indeed turn out well for the club even absent Thor? A contending Mets team may end up being forced to mine the farm system to bring in an impact arm, whether in mid-2020 or the ensuing offseason or both. Planning for the 2021 season and beyond will now be quite a bit more complicated, because it’ll be quite difficult to know what the club will get out of Syndergaard. And the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard — while perhaps remote to begin with — now seems quite difficult even to imagine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Replacing DJ LeMahieu

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A little over a year ago, there were plenty of Yankees fans clamoring for the team to make a huge splash in free agency and sign infielder Manny Machado. The Yankees did give it some consideration, but they ended up taking themselves out of the Machado sweepstakes in January 2019 when they made a far less splashy acquisition with the signing of fellow infielder DJ LeMahieu to a two-year, $24MM guarantee. A bit over a month later, Machado landed with the Padres on a franchise-record pact worth $300MM over 10 years.

If you were to bet on one of those players turning in an MVP-contending campaign last season, it would have been Machado, owner of the vastly superior track record. Shockingly, though, LeMahieu wound up far outdoing Machado. While dividing time among first, second and third for the AL East-winning Yankees, the ex-Cub and Rockie LeMahieu managed a career-high 5.4 fWAR and slashed .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs (he had never toaled more than 15 in a previous season) across 655 plate appearances. The performance earned LeMahieu a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting, trailing Mike Trout, Alex Bregman and Marcus Semien. Not bad for someone whom the Yankees could have only expected to be a complementary player when they added him.

Now, unfortunately for New York, it’s uncertain whether the soon-to-be free agent LeMahieu will ever don its uniform again. Even if the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t prevent a season from happening in 2020, LeMahieu could exit via the open market thereafter. As of late February, there hadn’t been momentum toward an extension.

If LeMahieu, slated to be the Yankees’ top second baseman in 2020, does leave as a free agent, how might they react? There are always other free agents, but the rest of the upcoming class at the keystone looks decidedly less promising. Players like Kolten Wong, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar are among the best of the bunch, but there aren’t any stars in the group (granted, LeMahieu wasn’t a star before he put on the pinstripes).

Another option for the Yankees could be to move Gleyber Torres back to second base and focus on the top of the shortstop market, which looks a lot more promising. The highly accomplished trio of Semien, old pal Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons are in line to lead the way. Perhaps a better idea would be to try to swing a trade for one of the premier shortstops in the game – the Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available as players heading into their last seasons of control in 2021. The trade market for second basemen doesn’t look as if it will be nearly as enticing, but maybe the Royals will finally relent and show some willingness to move Whit Merrifield.

In the event a LeMahieu re-signing or a major middle infield acquisition doesn’t come together before 2021, would there be any immediate in-house replacements on hand? It’s hard to find an heir apparent worth getting excited about. The Yankees don’t have any prospects who are going to be ready right away. Higher up, the 25-year-old Tyler Wade could open 2020 on the Yankees’ bench, and maybe he’ll do enough to work his way into starting consideration for the ensuing season. To this point, though, he has done little to inspire. Wade offered mediocre offense at the Triple-A level during the past two years and has batted an unsightly .197/.268/.298 with three homers in 241 plate appearances as a Yankee. Fellow 40-man option Thairo Estrada doesn’t look like anything close to a surefire future regular, either.

All said, the Yankees’ middle infield situation could be a compelling one to watch when next offseason rolls around. You would think the Yankees will do all they can to re-up the soon-to-be 32-year-old LeMahieu, but until an extension comes together, there will be plenty of speculation about how they’ll handle second and short in 2021.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

When A Can’t-Miss Prospect Misses

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This isn’t how Carson Fulmer’s career was supposed to go. The former Vanderbilt ace was one of the top-ranked prospects in his draft class back in 2015, and virtually no mock drafts compiled by Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB.com, etc. that spring had him dropping out of the top 10. At one point, Baseball America projected Fulmer to go to the D-backs with the No. 1 overall pick. “Fulmer is the surest big leaguer on the board, with a floor of elite closer,” BA wrote of Fulmer at the time — a pretty resounding endorsement considering that three of the players eventually selected ahead of him were Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi.

Carson Fulmer | Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously, things haven’t played out for the now 26-year-old Fulmer as hoped. Everything went according to plan following that ’15 draft. Fulmer pitched a scoreless frame in the Rookie-level Arizona League before being jumping up to the ChiSox’ Class-A Advanced affiliate. Despite being about two years younger than the average competition in that league, Fulmer allowed just five runs on 16 hits and nine walks with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings (2.05 ERA). That strong debut landed him on the top 100 lists at Baseball America (70) and MLB.com (38).

Fulmer’s numbers a year later weren’t as stout. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also more than five walks per nine frames while working to a 4.76 ERA out of the Double-A rotation. The Sox called him up to the big leagues that July despite the shaky numbers — just 13 months after he was drafted. Some will suggest that the organization rushed him to the Majors, but Fulmer was viewed as a potential quick mover from the time he was selected. He closed out the game in his big league debut, firing two shutout innings of relief in a loss to the Angels. The righty struggled in a handful of subsequent appearances and went back to Triple-A to finish out the season.

Since that time, Fulmer has been optioned back to the minors eight different times. He’s generally remained healthy but hasn’t succeeded either in Triple-A (5.39 ERA in 243 2/3 innings) or in the Majors (6.56 ERA in 94 2/3 innings). Now, Fulmer is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will have to carry him on the Major League roster or expose him to waivers whenever play resumes. In that regard, the likely expansion of rosters for at least part of the 2020 season will work nicely in Fulmer’s favor.

Fulmer’s velocity isn’t as high as it once was. A heater that reached 97mph “often” in college, per Baseball America, has averaged 93.2 mph in the Majors (93.7 mph in 2019). His command issues have been exploited by more advanced hitters, and his walk rate and frequency of wild pitches have spiked since reaching Triple-A.

Despite the lack of success at the game’s top levels, Fulmer isn’t without positive indicators. The spin rate on his four-seamer and curveball were both elite in 2019, ranking in the 91st percentile and 87th percentile among big league hurlers, respectively, per Statcast. He recorded healthy swinging-strike rates on his curve, cutter and changeup. In Triple-A, he racked up 51 strikeouts in just 34 innings — a 13.5 K/9 and 33.6 percent overall strikeout percentage that were both easily career-bests at any level.

Might a change in approach benefit him? A look at his career fastball usage at Brooks Baseball shows that he’s long worked down in the zone with the pitch and did so almost exclusively in 2019 — even at a time when much of the league is favoring four-seamers at the top of and above the strike zone. His avoidance of elevated fastballs would help to explain the paltry 4.2 percent swinging-strike rate on his four-seamer in 2019.

At this point, Fulmer has been leapfrogged by a host of new young arms in the Sox’ system — Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez among them. The White Sox’ initial hopes of Fulmer quickly ascending to the Majors to anchor a rotation alongside Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon have long since been dashed. There’s still room for him to carve out a long-term place in the team’s bullpen if he can piece it all together once games resume, but it’s far from certain that he’ll ever right the ship with the Sox. Chicago’s clear switch to a win-now mode should shorten whatever leash he’s been given in recent years. A change of scenery and a new outlook/approach could perhaps be best for Fulmer, but he’ll likely get one final shot to make things work with the South Siders.

J.D. Martinez, Alex Bregman … Jordan Luplow?

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Raise your hand if you know which three major league hitters had the most success against left-handed pitching last season. The first two names – Boston’s J.D. Martinez (242 wRC+) and Houston’s Alex Bregman (205) – don’t come as any kind of surprise. Everybody knows they’re elite offensive players. The same is not true of the third-place finisher, Indians outfielder Jordan Luplow, who put up a jaw-dropping 198 wRC+ and slashed .320/.439/.742 in 155 plate appearances versus southpaws. Nobody could have seen that coming when the Indians made a fairly under-the-radar trade for him before last year.

Heading into the 2018-19 offseason, Luplow was a Pirate who, in limited big league opportunities, didn’t produce much. At that point, the former third-round pick was the owner of a dismal .194/.274/.371 line (72 wRC+) in 190 trips to the plate. Unimpressed, Pittsburgh sent him to Cleveland in a deal that has gone the Indians’ way so far.

In exchange for Luplow and infielder Max Moroff, the Indians gave up infielder Erik Gonzalez and a couple minor league right-handers in Dante Mendoza and Tahnaj Thomas. Like Luplow, Gonzalez had been a replacement-level player and a non-threat at the plate in the majors when the trade occurred. Still, then-Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was happy to bring him aboard.

“Erik Gonzalez is an athletic middle infielder who plays solid defense and has the potential to be a productive hitter at the major league level,” said Huntington. “He gives us another quality option to play shortstop or in the middle of our infield this year and into the future.”

Gonzalez fell flat in Year 1 as a Pirate, though, as he batted an ugly .254/.301/.317 (59 wRC+) in 156 PA during an injury-shortened campaign. He’s 28 and controllable through 2022, so it’s too soon to throw dirt on Gonzalez’s career, but it’s not looking good so far. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old Mendoza has struggled in the minors, where he logged a 5.82 ERA/6.06 FIP across 43 1/3 innings in rookie ball last season. If there’s a silver lining to this trade for the Pirates so far, it’s that they got a solid prospect in Thomas, 20. Formerly an infielder, Thomas ranks as FanGraphs’ No. 5 Pirates farmhand. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote of Thomas two months ago, “He may be the most anonymous 100 mph arm in baseball.”

Perhaps Thomas will one day go down as a player who got away for Cleveland. For now, the team’s benefiting from the deal at the MLB level, though it’s already out one-half of its return in Moroff. He was a non-factor in the bigs last year and is now a member of the Mets organization. And, of course, Luplow doesn’t come without question marks at the plate. The righty amassed 106 PA versus same-handed pitchers in 2019, hit just one of his 15 home runs off them and could only muster a .216/.274/.299 line with a wRC+ of 48. Those are in line with the numbers he posted against right-handers in previous seasons.

Despite his shortcomings, the inexpensive Luplow has already given the Indians a substantial amount of bang for their buck. As a 2.2-fWAR performed last year, FanGraphs valued his output at $17.6MM. At the very least, the Indians appear to have found a nice platoon hitter in Luplow — one who has experience at all three outfield positions. The fact that he’s still just 26 and controllable for five more years (including two pre-arbitration seasons) only adds to his appeal from the low-budget Indians’ perspective.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Phillies’ Upside Scenario

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For a big-budget team that has in recent years added high-profile players like Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Jake Arrieta, the Phillies sure haven’t received a lot of attention of late. Perhaps it’s the fact that the rest of the NL East has been engaged in more interesting pursuits.

Let’s not overlook the challenges facing the Philadelphia organization in 2020 and beyond. The Nationals just won a World Series and still have elite talent. The Braves have taken the past two division titles and remain loaded. The Mets took a hit with the loss of Noah Syndergaard, but still have an imposing rotation and and an underappreciated amount of upside on the position-player side as well. And the Marlins? Well, we tend to overlook them, but maybe it’s time we recognize that the club’s young pitching is fairly interesting. They even spent some cash to bring in some veterans this offseason. Perhaps a renaissance isn’t far off.

Could the Phillies’ long-awaited return to the top of the heap stall out? There’s a real risk of it. Projection systems mostly seem to view the current roster as a generally average one, hardly a surefire contender. And the farm system isn’t exactly bursting with top-shelf youngsters just awaiting their chance in the majors. It’s necessary to acknowledge that the picture may never quite come all the way together as president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak envisioned. But let’s also consider the realistic upside in the group of players they’ve assembled.

Outfield

Bryce Harper: It has been a few years, but he’s only 27 and is one of only a few players who has proven capable of producing a ~10 WAR season.

Andrew McCutchen: Cutch was nearly that good at his peak, too, though it’s much further in the past. But we shouldn’t go too far in the other direction. McCutchen has been a high-quality everyday player even since moving out of superstar status. Added rest for his knee probably helps.

Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn/Jay Bruce: I’m not going to tell you I’m in love with this group, but you can squint and see how it can work out. Statcast hated Haseley’s quality of contact and Quinn hasn’t made good with his chances. But they’re both young players who could yet make strides. Bruce wasn’t great in Philly last year but has mostly been an above-average offensive producer even in his decline years.

Infield

J.T. Realmuto: The Phillies feel he’s the best catcher in baseball and it’s possible there’s even more in the tank. He has done more offensively than he did in 2019. There’ll be no shortage of motivation with free agency beckoning.

Rhys Hoskins: He collapsed late last year but still led the league in walks. If he can figure out what went wrong … he was a .263/.401/.530 monster through his first 392 plate appearances in 2019.

Didi Gregorius: We’re looking at a guy who was a quality defensive shortstop who produced about 25% more offensive than the average player in 2018. He wasn’t back to that level after fighting back from Tommy John surgery, but as with Hoskins, the established ceiling isn’t that far in the rearview mirror.

Jean Segura: A steady producer for three seasons before the Phillies acquired him, Segura stumbled a bit last year. But when you look under the hood, he mostly seems to be the same player, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he was to bounce back at thirty years of age.

Alec Bohm: The team’s top prospect bolted up the ladder last year and ended up posting big numbers at Double-A (.269/.344/.500; 38:28 K/BB ratio). He’s a candidate to break out upon his MLB arrival.

Utility

Scott Kingery: It’s important to remember that the Phillies can lean on Kingery in the infield or the outfield. That leaves flexibility to accommodate the rise of Bohm, needs in center field, or opportunities to add new players. Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.

Josh Harrison/Neil Walker/Logan Forsythe/T.J. Rivera: The Phillies promised opportunities to compete in camp to a series of veterans who’ve had quite a bit of MLB success. That’s not necessarily likely to result in a lucky score of a high-quality regular, but it’s possible. And the team can reasonably hope it has added some useful pieces for cheap.

Rotation

Aaron Nola: He took a bit of a step back last year but was still quite good. And Nola put up a Cy Young-caliber effort in the season prior.

Zack Wheeler: This signing was all about the upside positively dripping from Wheeler’s high-powered right arm. There are risks, too, but there’s also a real possibility the Phils hit a home run here.

Jake Arrieta: As with McCutchen, it’d be foolish to pine for a return to the glory days. But Arrieta had turned in quality output even with diminished stuff before running into bigger problems in 2019. He was a sub-4.00 hurler in the two prior campaigns.

Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta/Zach Eflin: It’s something of an annual tradition to marvel at the big arms of Velasquez and Pivetta while wondering if they can succeed as MLB starters. It hasn’t really happened yet, but there have been flashes and crazier things have happened. Eflin’s peripherals slipped last year and he doesn’t exactly profile as an ace, but he has turned in 291 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in the past two seasons.

Cole Irvin/Enyel De Los Santos/Adonis Medina/Spencer Howard: Irvin and De Los Santos have reached (but hardly mastered) the majors. It’s possible to imagine solid production coming from either or both. There are some highly regarded arms not far behind. It seems both of these hurlers have some development left, but when talent figures things out it can move quickly …

Bullpen

Hector Neris: He got the long balls under control in 2019 and returned to being one of the game’s more effective closers.

Tommy Hunter/David Robertson: It’s hard to count on too much, but these accomplished veterans could certainly have a rebound. The layoff will give extra time for both to rest and rehab.

Bud Norris/Anthony Swarzak/Blake Parker/Drew Storen: There are also a fair number of other veteran types looking to revive their careers in Philadelphia. Tough to say what to expect, but there are decent odds that there’s some productivity here. Norris is a particularly interesting candidate; he was quite useful in 2018 but sat out the ensuing season when interest didn’t develop as expected.

Victor Arano: He was quite good in 2018 and now has added time to recover from elbow surgery.

Deolis Guerra: The MLB track record is quite thin, but he thrived in a tough Triple-A environment last year.

Adam Morgan/Jose Alvarez/Ranger Suarez/Francisco Liriano: It’s not a star-studded group of lefties, but there is at least sufficient depth.

The Phils also have a fairly large group of younger pitchers already on the 40-man, many with MLB experience. While few jump off the page for their obvious upside, the Phillies can still hope that someone emerges from the group. Edgar Garcia may be the most interesting, with big swinging-strike rates and good results in the upper minors. There are three lefties with strong upper-minors strikeout numbers but other questions: Austin Davis, Garrett Cleavinger, and Kyle Dohy.

Remember, the bullpen is likely to end up with some spillover from the rotation, with Pivetta a particularly likely candidate to spend time in the ’pen. Hope remains that his stuff could play up in a relief role.

Overall

It’s silly to contemplate a scenario where literally everything breaks right for a team. That’s more or less impossible. But the realistic upside possibilities are fairly interesting. There’s potential for one mega-star (Harper), at least one top-of-class player (Realmuto), and several others with All-Star capabilities in the position-player mix. The pitching picture is similar, with a set of mid-prime hurlers who could emerge as twin aces and a reasonably interesting blend behind them.

Many have pegged the Phils as the fourth-best team in the NL East, and that’s quite possible accurate when you blend in all the downside. But this club still has the potential to break out — particularly if a strong early showing facilitates additional mid-season investments (presuming there’s such an opportunity).

Who’s The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?

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There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.

Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.

There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)

  • Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
  • Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
  • James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
  • Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
  • Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
  • Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
  • Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
  • Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
  • Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.

Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)

Who'll Be The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?
Trevor Bauer 36.56% (2,150 votes)
Marcus Stroman 15.44% (908 votes)
James Paxton 15.15% (891 votes)
Robbie Ray 12.62% (742 votes)
Masahiro Tanaka 6.21% (365 votes)
Jake Odorizzi 4.42% (260 votes)
Mike Minor 3.16% (186 votes)
Garrett Richards 2.50% (147 votes)
Other 2.36% (139 votes)
Jose Quintana 1.58% (93 votes)
Total Votes: 5,881

Rizzo & Freeman Headline 2021-22 Free Agent First Basemen

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It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class and taken a look at the veteran backstops coming to the market. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many first basemen set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 first base market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022):

Top of the Class

  • Freddie Freeman (32): He’s such a franchise icon that the club’s former GM preferred Freeman to his own right arm … and that we forgot to include him in the initial version of this list. Gulp. It is indeed hard to imagine Freeman in another uniform after so many great seasons in Atlanta. Then again, an elbow injury did crop up in 2019. And the team’s current executive leadership may not have quite the same attachment to a much older version of the slugger. We’ll see whether and when serious talks on a second extension. If Freeman does reach the market, there’s a good chance he’ll be one of the most hotly pursued players. But teams are only going to pay so much for a first baseman of this vintage in the current environment.
  • Anthony Rizzo (32): He isn’t sure to be part of this class, as the Cubs could in theory decline their option next winter and let Rizzo sign a multi-year deal elsewhere. That’s … unlikely. Through nine years and over five thousand plate appearances in the majors, Rizzo is a .273/.373/.488 hitter who has launched 218 home runs. He has been a steadily excellent producer since his breakout 2014 season. We’ll see what the intervening seasons bring, but the odds are good that Rizzo will be one of the best bats available in the 2021-22 offseason. You might think the Cubs would be interested in pursuing an extension, particularly given Rizzo’s central role in the club’s identity, but the team declined the advances of the star first bagger this offseason. Future talks remain possible, but this was perhaps the most promising window.

Other Regulars

  • Brandon Belt (34): Long a high-quality but under-appreciated hitter, Belt has also dealt with significant concussion issues over the years. He was healthy in 2019, but also drooped in the power department — already a source of consternation for many Giants fans — over the past two campaigns. There are some rays of hope. Belt’s plate discipline was as good as ever last year (13.5% walk rate, 20.6% strikeout rate). And by measure of Statcast, he has produced better contact than the results would suggest (.327 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA in 2018; .319 vs. .346 in 2019).
  • Matt Carpenter (36): While he’s not playing first base at the moment, Carpenter has plenty of experience there and will likely be viewed as a first bagger when he reaches free agency. It feels rather likely that the Cardinals will end up paying a $2MM buyout rather than exercising a $18.5MM vesting option. Then again, couldn’t Carpenter’s sudden fall-off in 2019 represent a blip? He was a top-notch offensive producer for years before. I can’t think offhand of a player whose Statcast readings dove so dramatically. Carpenter dropped from a 44.7% hard contact rate in 2018 to a miserly 31.1% rate in 2019, while he sunk from a .392 xwOBA (his fourth-straight season ranking in the top ten percent leaguewide by that metric) to a middling .332 mark. Carpenter ended the year with a .225/.334/.392 batting line and personal-high 26.2% strikeout rate. He could be a big factor in this market, but he’ll have to figure out what went wrong.

Other Option Possibilities

Like Rizzo, several other notable players can each be controlled for the 2021 season through club options. Should that come to pass, those players would play out their contracts before returning to the open market. If they don’t perform well enough, there’s still a good chance they’ll end up in the 2021-22 free agent class.

  • Carlos Santana (36; $17.5MM option, $500K buyout) and Edwin Encarnacion (39; $12MM option, no buyout) lead the way here. It’s not certain they’ll be in this class: their options are expensive enough that they could conceivably be sent onto the open market after a good-but-not-great season and still end up signing a multi-year deal. And Encarnacion, at least, is getting up there in years. Another player with a lot of money at stake is Daniel Murphy (37), who’ll either receive a $6MM buyout or play for a $12MM salary in 2021.
  • Todd Frazier (36; $5.75MM option, $1.5MM buyout), Justin Smoak (35; $5.5MM option, $1MM buyout), Eric Thames (35; $4MM mutual option, $1MM buyout), and Mitch Moreland (36; $3MM option, $500K buyout) are all also possibilities to become parts of this class.

Names to Watch

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30): The Japanese star inked a two-year deal with the Rays this past offseason. It’s anyone’s guess how it’ll look when Tsutsugo is ready to return to the open market. While he has historically spent most of his time in the outfield, he’s being given time in the infield in Tampa Bay and has experience at first base in Nippon Professional Baseball.
  • Mark Canha (33): He’s currently finding success ranging on the outfield grass, but Canha came up primarily as a first baseman. And if he can sustain his monster 2019 output — .273/.396/.517 — then the bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
  • Ian Desmond (36): It’s all but inconceivable that the Rockies will exercise their $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) over the struggling veteran, so he’s sure to be a part of this class. Even with a bounceback platform season, though, teams aren’t likely to relish the idea of plugging Desmond into their first base mix. Though he was rather oddly plugged in at first when the Rockies signed him, the former shortstop and center fielder’s real potential value lies in his defensive versatility.

Replacing A Strikeout Machine

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The Diamondbacks and much-maligned former general manager Dave Stewart made a shrewd pickup six years ago when they acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Tigers in a three-team trade. Ray has been one of the most productive players on Arizona’s roster since then, but his time in the desert may be nearing an end. Regardless of whether a season takes place, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ray may choose to test the free-agent market in the winter, when he’d rank near the top of the list of available starters.

[RELATED: Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal]

The most appealing thing about Ray is that he fans hitters in droves, having struck out 11-plus batters per nine in four straight seasons. He ranked third in that category last year with 12.13 K/9, trailing only now-$324MM man Gerrit Cole and former teammate Max Scherzer. Problem is that Ray hasn’t kept runs off the board at elite rates like Cole and Scherzer have, nor has he been the innings-eating workhorse along their lines. Ray’s the owner of a lifetime 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP and has never reached the 175-frame mark in a season.

Most recently, Ray pitched to a 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP across 174 1/3 innings in 2019. That’s not ace-like production, but there’s nothing wrong with it at all, and the Diamondbacks might soon have to find a way to replace it. They’ve at least pondered it, as Ray has been the subject of countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons. No offer has gotten Arizona to bite thus far, though, and after a strong 85-win effort last year, the club doesn’t seem prepared to part with Ray in the near future. Rather, the Diamonbacks made a serious effort to improve their rotation in the offseason by signing ex-Giant Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM pact. The belief then was that there would be a season, and the hope was that Ray, Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Mike Leake would form a tremendous starting five.

The potential is certainly there for the D-backs’ rotation to be a smash success in 2020. But it may well end up as Ray’s last season with the club. The same goes for Leake, who has an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout for 2021. A rotation devoid of Ray and Leake would still have a nice trio in Bumgarner, Weaver and Gallen, but what of the other two spots? Arizona just spent pretty big on Bumgarner, so maybe it would shop at the high end of the market again for someone like old friend Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, James Paxton or Jose Quintana. Otherwise, at the mid- and lower-tier levels of free agency, there should be quite a few somewhat intriguing arms available. You also can’t discount the trade market, where Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray and Chris Archer are some of the hurlers who could soon be available.

As far as in-house options go, Arizona doesn’t appear to be loaded with immediate solutions. The Diamondbacks could keep Merrill Kelly for $4.25MM, but he may be a buyout candidate ($500K) after producing mediocre results in 2019. The team does have several other choices who have either pitched in the majors or are almost ready for MLB (Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin are some examples), though nobody there has a proven track record of racking up outs at the game’s highest level.

If you’re the D-backs, one of the many reasons you’re hoping a season occurs is so what looks like a very good rotation can help you break a two-year playoff drought. But that rotation looks as if it will weaken soon, largely on account of Ray’s pending free agency.

A Battle Of NL East Superstars

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We’ve seen two of the brightest young offensive stars in baseball emerge in the National League East over the past couple years. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Nationals’ Juan Soto have been enormously successful since they made their debuts in 2018, and the outfielders have played important roles in helping lead their clubs to prominence. The Braves have taken the division in each of Acuna’s two seasons, while Soto was among the reasons the Nationals won their first-ever World Series last fall. The two look as if they’ll be franchise cornerstones for the long haul, but if you can only have one, which player would you pick?

Going by production, there hasn’t been a huge difference in their careers so far. The 22-year-old Acuna’s a 9.3-fWAR player through his first 1,202 plate appearances and a .285/.365/.532 hitter with 67 home runs, 53 stolen bases and an excellent wRC+ of 133. The righty masher fell just shy of a 40/40 effort in 2019, when he smacked 41 dingers and swiped an NL-high 37 bags. Furthermore, Acuna has fared respectably as a defender thus far – including as the Braves’ primary center fielder last year – with 16 DRS and a minus-0.6 UZR to this point.

By measure of wRC+, Soto has been an even more effective hitter than Acuna. Soto, who only became old enough to legally drink as last year’s World Series was going on, owns a jaw-dropping 143 mark in that category. The lefty swinger’s a .287/.403/.535 batter with 56 homers and 8.5 fWAR through 1,153 PA, though he doesn’t come close to Acuna in terms of stolen bases (17). Acuna’s overall defensive output has also been better, but Soto did make strides in that area last season. After putting up minus-6 DRS and minus-4.2 UZR as a rookie in left field, he improved to zero and minus-0.7 in those categories as a sophomore.

The overall numbers Acuna and Soto have managed at such young ages have been astounding. But you can’t just consider production when comparing the two. One of the key facts about Acuna is that his team has already locked him up for the foreseeable future, as the Braves extended him to an eight-year, $100MM guarantee after his first season. With $17MM club options for 2027 and ’28, the deal could keep Acuna in place for almost the whole decade. That’s a lengthy commitment and a lot of money, but it has nonetheless always come off as a no-brainer move from Atlanta’s perspective.

The Nationals would surely love to sign Soto to a similar pact, but it’s hard to believe they’ll get him on such a team-friendly deal. At the very least, though, they do still have the right to control the Scott Boras client for the next half-decade, including one more pre-arbitration year if a season does take place in 2020.

The bottom line is that you can’t lose with either of these players, no doubt two of the greatest assets in the sport. But you’re only allowed to build around one of them, so take your pick…

(Poll link for app users)

Ronald Acuna Jr. Or Juan Soto?
Acuna 71.39% (3,923 votes)
Soto 28.61% (1,572 votes)
Total Votes: 5,495
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