MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

We took a look this morning at what National League teams have done to improve their weakest position (as per bWAR) from the past season, and now let’s turn our attention to the 15 American League clubs….

Angels (Third base, -0.1 bWAR): Unfortunately for the Halos, this was a close competition to decide their least-productive position, as they received an even 0.0 bWAR from first base and only 0.1 bWAR from their right fielders.  L.A. will be counting on a healthy season from Zack Cozart to upgrade the hot corner, though if the Angels were able to land Josh Harrison, Cozart could be shifted to second base while Harrison plays third, with sophomore infielder David Fletcher backing up both positions.  In right field, the Angels are hoping Kole Calhoun can bounce back from a rough season, though there has been some speculation that the team could try to unload Calhoun to free up some payroll space.  Justin Bour was signed to play first base in at least a timeshare with Albert Pujols, though given how Pujols has struggled in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the future Hall-of-Famer supplanted by Bour and DH Shohei Ohtani (once Ohtani returns from Tommy John surgery) entirely.

Astros (Left field, 1.3 bWAR): Michael Brantley is coming to Houston after signing a two-year, $32MM deal, giving the Astros perhaps an overload of left-handed outfielders, though Brantley should provide some solid pop in the lineup.  The Astros’ second-weakest area was their 1.4 bWAR from their designated hitters, though Brantley is likely to help in that regard as well, as his injury history will probably mean that he gets the occasional partial-rest day as the DH.  Houston has continued to be linked to such first base/DH options as Edwin Encarnacion or the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez, so the DH spot could still receive some more attention.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.5 bWAR): Even after signing Chris Herrmann to pair with Josh Phegley, Oakland continues to be on the lookout for a more stable everyday backstop.  A reunion with Jonathan Lucroy won’t be happening now that Lucroy has signed with the Angels.  Assuming Yasmani Grandal is too expensive for the A’s, there isn’t much in the way of a clear upgrade from a hitting perspective left on the free agent catching market, though Martin Maldonado provides a nice defensive boost.  I’d guess that a trade is more likely if the A’s are to land another regular catcher.

Blue Jays (Left field, 0.2 bWAR): Teoscar Hernandez saw the bulk of the left field playing time last season, hitting .239/.302/.468 for a 107 wRC+ over 523 PA, but also looking completely out of his element defensively.  While the rebuilding Jays are likely to give Hernandez another shot to prove he can handle the position, he won’t have a very long leash, as Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, and Dwight Smith Jr. are all on hand to soak up playing time and perhaps relegate Hernandez to future DH duty.  Toronto also received only 0.4 bWAR at both second base and third base last season, though the team hopes that uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will soon provide a major splash at the hot corner.  Brandon Drury will handle third base until Guerrero arrives, and then slide over to second base in a timeshare or perhaps an everyday role if Devon Travis doesn’t improve on a rough 2018 campaign.

Indians (Right field, 0.5 bWAR): Cleveland has spent much of its offseason focus on cutting payroll and overhauling its first base/DH situation, leaving a lot of work still to be done on the Tribe’s biggest weakness, its shaky outfield.  Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Lonnie Chisenhall have all signed elsewhere, while Cleveland’s only additions have been Jordan Luplow, minor league signings Trayce Thompson and Brandon Barnes, and first baseman Jake Bauers, who could see a bit of time as a corner outfielder.  The Indians have looked to add young outfielders in trade talks about their starting pitching, with names like the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo or the Reds’ Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell popping up on the Tribe’s radar, though it remains to be seen if Cleveland still feels the financial need to move Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Mariners (First base, 0.1 bWAR): Technically, Seattle has added Edwin Encarnacion to handle first, though the M’s are widely expected to flip Encarnacion elsewhere as part of their stunning roster overhaul.  With the Mariners firmly in rebuild mode for at least 2019, they might choose to just rely on internal options for first base, like giving another shot to Ryon Healy and/or Dan Vogelbach.  Jay Bruce is also on hand to play some first base, if he isn’t also traded before Opening Day.

Orioles (First base, -2.5 bWAR): Baltimore already cleaned house on many of its veterans at the last trade deadline, though Chris Davis (and the $92MM remaining on his contract) is all but immovable in the wake of Davis’ horrific 2018 season.  There’s nothing the O’s can really do here except hope that Davis can regain some of his old form.  If the O’s are able to trade Mark Trumbo in the last year of his contract, you could see Trey Mancini gets moved to first base and Davis shifted into DH duty, as the rebuilding Orioles obviously want to prioritize Mancini’s development and may want to get him to a more defensively-friendly position than left field.

Rangers (Center field, 0.2 bWAR): Roster Resource currently has Joey Gallo slated as the Texas center fielder, as a nod to the Rangers’ acquisition of Patrick Wisdom for third base and the team’s glut of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield options.  While Gallo’s versatility is a nice weapon for the Rangers to utilize, and he has acquitted himself well defensively over 100 career innings in center field, nobody sees him as a regular answer at the position.  Delino DeShields has the glove and the baserunning for center, though his hitting cratered last season and he had trouble staying healthy last year.  The Rangers could add a low-cost veteran outfielder into the mix, simply because Gallo and DeShields are both imperfect enough fits to work as a proper timeshare, though Texas might first have to deal another first baseman/corner outfielder to find another everyday spot for Gallo’s bat.

Rays (First base, 1.4 bWAR): Just when you thought Jake Bauers was the first baseman of the future, the Rays dealt him to the Cleveland as part of a three-team swap that saw Yandy Diaz come back to Tampa Bay.  Diaz’s positional versatility makes him a better fit with the Rays’ desire to mix and match around the diamond, which leaves Ji-Man Choi as the top choice at either first base or DH, with Diaz, Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, or perhaps prospect Nathaniel Lowe all rotating through the other position as matchups dictate.  There continue to be whispers that the Rays could acquire a more potent bat for its first base/DH mix, however, so stay tune.  Right field (1.6 bWAR) and catcher (1.7 bWAR) were also relative weak spots for Tampa, though the team hopes that Austin Meadows can step into regular outfield duty now that Mallex Smith has been dealt, and Mike Zunino was acquired in the Smith trade to address the Rays’ longstanding need behind the plate.

Red Sox (Catcher, -1.4 bWAR): Boston is reportedly still getting some calls about its catchers, even though the trio of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart provided sub-replacement level production for the team in its World Series season.  Vazquez and Leon can at least hang their hats on good defense and game-calling ability, while Swihart isn’t too far removed from being a top prospect, even if his ultimate future might not be behind the plate.  The Red Sox seem satisfied with their mix at least from a defensive standpoint, though I’m surprised that the Sox have rarely been mentioned as candidates to acquire a new catcher, whether it’s a big name like J.T. Realmuto or even just a regular who can provide at least average production.  It’s worth noting that Boston also received negative bWAR totals at third base (-0.4) and second base (-0.2).  The Sox will count on improvement from Rafael Devers for the former, and will be hoping that Dustin Pedroia can return healthy next season, with Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez on hand as infield backups.

Royals (Relief pitching, -3.0 bWAR): The old “Law Firm” bullpen of the 2015 World Series run was a distant memory for the 2018 Royals, who endured some brutal relief pitching among the team’s many struggles last season.  The Royals haven’t done anything to really address their pen thus far, and in fact have added more inexperience in the form of Rule 5 Draft pickups Chris Ellis and Sam McWilliams.  Expect K.C. to pursue the usual rebuilding-team strategy of signing a couple of inexpensive veteran arms, who can ideally help stabilize the pen in the first few months of the season and then be flipped at the trade deadline.

Tigers (DH, -0.9 bWAR): Now that Victor Martinez has retired, the Tigers can get a bit more flexibility from their DH spot by giving Miguel Cabrera some regular rest days away from first base, or the team could give some rest to defensively-challenged bats like Christin Stewart or Nick Castellanos (assuming Castellanos isn’t traded, of course).  Detroit also received just -0.5 bWAR at catcher last season, and has since parted ways with longtime backstop James McCann.  Greyson Greiner and John Hicks now comprise the catching corps, and while veteran Bobby Wilson was signed for depth, the Tigers are likely to add at least one more experienced backstop going into Spring Training.  Interestingly, the Tigers asked the Dodgers about catching prospect Keibert Ruiz as part of trade talks involving Castellanos, though L.A. balked at the request.

Twins (First base, 0.8 bWAR): C.J. Cron‘s 30-homer career year with the Rays last season earned him nothing more than a trip to DFA limbo, leading Minnesota to claim the veteran to step in as Joe Mauer‘s replacement.  Cron doesn’t bring much to the table apart from decent hitting numbers, though even duplicating his 2.0 bWAR 2018 season would be a solid upgrade for the Twins, especially at his arbitration-avoiding $4.8MM salary.

White Sox (Left field, -0.5 bWAR): Chicago was regarded as something of a sleeping giant this offseason, though their most notable acquisitions (Yonder Alonso, Alex Colome and Ivan Nova) have been more of the modest variety than any true game-changers.  It could be that they’re waiting to see how things stand as one of three apparent finalists for Manny Machado, though the Sox are reportedly wary of spending the kind of gigantic money it will take to land Machado or Bryce Harper.  The White Sox were linked to Brantley before he signed with Houston, and they have at least some level of interest in Harper, indicating that the team is taking steps to remake its poor outfield production.  Chicago outfielders combined for just a cumulative -0.3 bWAR last season, the second-lowest total of any outfield in baseball.  Avisail Garcia has already been non-tendered, leaving the Sox with a current combination of Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, Daniel Palka, and Leury Garcia that is still begging for an upgrade.  There haven’t yet been any reports connecting the White Sox to A.J. Pollock, the top non-Harper outfielder in free agency, though Pollock makes sense for Chicago on paper.

Yankees (First base, 0.6 bWAR): Late-season folk hero Luke Voit and former top prospect Greg Bird are slated for first base duty next season, though it seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop with Machado.  If Machado does end up in New York, it could lead to Miguel Andujar being traded, unless the Yankees see more value in keeping Andujar and simply installing him at first base.  Given Andujar’s defensive shortcomings as a third base, a move across the diamond might not be a bad idea even if Machado signs elsewhere.  Didi Gregorius‘ injury absence has created a lot of moving parts within the Yankees’ infield, as New York could shift Gleyber Torres to play shortstop and then require a second baseman, Andujar could be traded or change positions, Machado could sign, etc.  With all this uncertainty and several trade possibilities to consider, I’d be a little surprised if Voit or Bird is the Opening Day first baseman, though the Yankees could address other needs and stand pat at first base, if for no other reason than to give Voit a longer look.

While we’re not even halfway through the offseason yet, the start of the new year feels like a natural checkpoint to look at what the National League’s 15 teams have done to upgrade themselves so far this winter.  Specifically, we’ll see what each NL team has done in regards to its least-productive position in 2018, as determined by bWAR.  Needless to say, we’ll ignore the DH category in this look at the National League’s clubs, and we can also set aside the pinch-hitter category unless a team has made significant strides with its bench.  The breakdown…

Braves (Relief pitching. 2.0 bWAR): Atlanta wins the door prize as the team with the best “worst” position, as you might expect from a division winner’s well-rounded roster.  It could also be argued that the Braves could improve from within, in the form of a healthy season from closer Arodys Vizcaino and some new blood in the form of the team’s many young starter candidates, who could be deployed as relief depth.  Still, a top-tier reliever (as either a closer or set-up man) would go a long way towards making the Braves’ pen into a true strength.  Atlanta has been more focused on position players and starting pitchers than relievers this winter, though the Braves had been linked to Edwin Diaz and Joakim Soria before those two landed on new teams.  There has been some speculation that Atlanta could pursue a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, but only if Kimbrel drastically lowers his reported asking price.  Given the Braves’ prospect depth and GM Alex Anthopoulos’ creativity in swinging deals, the team can’t be counted out in any sort of trade scenario for a high-profile reliever.

Brewers (Shortstop, -0.1 bWAR): Orlando Arcia turned in a sub-replacement season that saw him post his typical subpar batting line and also middling defensive numbers (-0.3 UZR/150, though a +4 Defensive Runs Saved).  There hasn’t been much indication that Milwaukee is ready to move on from Arcia, however, since he’s only just 24 and his hitting did improve later in the season, plus he was actually one of the Brewers’ hottest bats during their postseason run.  The Brewers have been more focused on second base upgrades rather than shortstops, though the team was one of many who observed Troy Tulowitzki‘s recent open workout for scouts.  Tulowitzki fits the model of a short-term veteran who could back up Arcia and also provide cover at second or third base in a pinch, and he could be a lottery ticket on the off-chance that he stays healthy and regains any of his old All-Star form.

Cardinals (Relief pitching, -2.7 bWAR): The Andrew Miller signing was a bold strike for a Cards pen that has struggled to find consistent left-handed relief in recent years.  Miller struggled with injuries in 2018, though if he returns to his form of the previous three seasons, he is the type of elite arm that can greatly enhance a relief corps by himself.  St. Louis probably won’t add another premium reliever in the wake of their deal with Miller, though another depth arm could be acquired, or perhaps a veteran free agent who is still available deep into Spring Training and could be had at a bargain price.

Cubs (Center field, 1.8 bWAR): Albert Almora displayed some excellent glovework but didn’t hit, while Ian Happ had a 106 wRC+ but was a mediocre fielder in his 403 2/3 innings as a center fielder last season.  Jason Heyward also saw some center field time last season and contributed his usual good defensive performance, while still struggling to contribute at the plate.  It seems likely that Chicago will continue with this mix in 2019, as the club might use what seemingly limited payroll flexibility it has on other areas of need.

Diamondbacks (Catcher and right field, -0.3 bWAR): After being acquired from the Cardinals as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Carson Kelly goes from being blocked by Yadier Molina to being Arizona’s catcher of the future.  Kelly also figures to be a big part of the Diamondbacks’ present, as he will likely get the bulk of playing time as the D’Backs split at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, and John Ryan Murphy.  As for right field, the D’Backs are hoping for a better year from Steven Souza Jr., who was limited to just 72 games and 272 plate appearances while battling a nagging pectoral injury.

Dodgers (Second base, 0.7 bWAR): Breakout star Max Muncy and super-utilityman Enrique Hernandez are the Dodgers’ top two current options at second base, and going with this pair could be an improvement simply by dint of moving on from the unproductive trio of Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, and Chase Utley.  Still, with Muncy and Hernandez perhaps needed elsewhere around the diamond as part of the Dodgers’ perpetual juggling of positions, L.A. has also been linked to DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as potential free agent targets.

Giants (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): It’s been a very quiet winter in San Francisco, as new GM Farhan Zaidi continues to evaluate his roster and figure out what to do with the Giants’ plethora of highly-paid but underachieving players.  Outfield continues to be San Francisco’s most obvious need, as the team will look to add some experience to a young mix of Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, and projected everyday center fielder Steven Duggar.  Whatever additions the Giants do make, they’re likely to be of the short-term variety, so you can probably cross the Giants off the list of potential Bryce Harper suitors.

Marlins (Relief pitching, -8.3 bWAR): Yes, you’re reading that correctly.  The Marlins were far worse than even the league’s 29th-best bullpen, the Royals and their -3.0 bWAR collective mark.  Furthermore, Miami has already traded one of its better arms in Kyle Barraclough, moved to the Nationals in a rare early-October swap.  The rebuilding Marlins certainly won’t be spending big on any major upgrades, and will instead likely look to add a couple of low-cost veterans to try and stabilize the relief corps as much as possible.

Mets (First base, -0.6 bWAR): Brodie Van Wagenen’s roster overhaul has included some action at first base, as Jay Bruce (who probably wasn’t going to find much time in the crowded Mets outfield) was sent to the Mariners as part of the blockbuster Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal.  While top prospect Peter Alonso figures to arrive sometime in 2019, the Mets have a variety of options in the meantime.  Jeff McNeil or Todd Frazier could see time at first, former well-regarded Dominic Smith is still in the mix, or Cano could get some first base at-bats while McNeil spells him at second base.

Nationals (Second base, -0.6 bWAR): You may be surprised to learn that catcher wasn’t Washington’s biggest weak point in 2018, though the Nats’ backstops weren’t far behind at -0.4 bWAR.  While the newly-acquired Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki should be a big help behind the plate, the Nats also haven’t been lax in observing the second base market.  LeMahieu, Harrison, Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie are some of the names Washington has reportedly been in contact with, so it seems likely that some type of addition will be made before Opening Day.  Internally, Wilmer Difo is on hand, plus Howie Kendrick will be back after missing most of last season due to a ruptured Achilles.

Padres (Starting pitching, -4.1 bWAR): It seems like the Padres have checked in on virtually every pitcher available in free agency or the trade market, as they are aiming to upgrade their rotation with at least one frontline name.  The long list of names linked to the Friars includes Dallas Keuchel, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, and probably a couple dozen more we haven’t yet heard about.  With the game’s deepest minor league system, the Padres can be a player in any trade negotiation, though the club is reportedly unwilling to deal any of its very top prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias), which could be a setback in trying to land a true ace-level starter.

Phillies (Shortstop, -1.7 bWAR): Philadelphia addressed this position in decisive fashion, landing Jean Segura in a major five-player trade with the Mariners.  The chain reaction of the trade also improved the team at another position, as Rhys Hoskins‘ dreadful left field glove balanced out his strong offense, leaving the Phillies with just 0.1 bWAR from its left fielders in 2018.  Hoskins’ move to first base is a big help in that respect, and the signing of Andrew McCutchen also provides a notable boost in right field, where the Phillies had more sub-replacement level production (-1.0 bWAR).  More could still be on the way for the Phillies, who have also been interested in several top pitchers and relievers, plus (of course) Harper and Manny Machado.

Pirates (Shortstop, -0.7 bWAR): Given how little the Bucs got out of the position last season, the team was willing to let longtime shortstop Jordy Mercer depart in free agency.  Prospect Kevin Newman is penciled in for more playing time in 2019 and Erik Gonzalez was also acquired as a more general utility infield option, though Pittsburgh has also been looking around at other veteran shortstop options.  The Pirates are another team that has scouted Tulowitzki, plus the Bucs have also been rumored to have interest in free agent Freddy Galvis and the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed.

Reds (Center field, 0.3 bWAR): The outfield as a whole didn’t produce much for the Reds last season, with just 0.5 bWAR at each corner spot to go along with the lack of production in center field.  As we enter 2019, however, Cincinnati could very have an entirely different starting outfield come Opening Day.  The newly-acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp will be sharing time with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker in right field and left field, while Schebler is currently atop the center field depth chart after Billy Hamilton was non-tendered.  The Reds have been busy this winter but have yet to really expand payroll as promised, so the team still has room to make a big splash in center field — maybe even in the form of A.J. Pollock, as the Reds reportedly have interest in the free agent.  On the trade front, the Reds have also asked the Braves about Ender Inciarte.

Rockies (First base, -0.8 bWAR): After showing interest in a wide array of available first baseman, the Rockies landed their much-needed big bat by signing Daniel Murphy to a two-year deal that contains a mutual option for the 2021 season.  Murphy didn’t play until June 12 due to a recovery from microfracture knee surgery, and after an understandable slow start to get his timing back, he hit .328/.366/.508 over his final 273 plate appearances of the 2018 season.  Now that he’ll be playing in Coors Field and will have an easier defensive assignment as a first baseman rather than at second base, it’s easy to imagine Murphy thriving in Colorado’s lineup.  Of further note, the Rockies were probably the league’s most top-heavy team last season, reaching the NLDS thanks to giant contributions from Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and the starting rotation and relatively little else around the diamond.  The Rox also received a negative-bWAR score at catcher (-0.3), as well as a cumulative 0.8 bWAR from their entire outfield.  Little has been done to address these areas yet this winter, go GM Jeff Bridich and his front office certainly still have some work to do before Opening Day.

Since free agency opened across Major League Baseball on Oct. 29, nearly half of MLBTR’s top 50 available players have come off the board. Twenty-three of those players have landed new contracts, leaving 27 without teams as the New Year approaches. Based on the original rankings compiled by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd, here’s a look at where the 20 best free agents left currently stand as 2018 nears an end:

1. Bryce Harper, OF (original prediction: 14 years, $420MM): With Scott Boras as his agent, it’s unsurprising that Harper – who may be in line for a record-setting contract – remains unsigned. As you’d expect, there has been no shortage of offseason rumors centering on the 26-year-old Harper, who has been connected to his only team to date – the Nationals – as well as the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Yankees and White Sox over the past couple months. On paper, the most logical landing spot for the superstar may be Los Angeles, which jettisoned pricey outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in a trade with the Reds earlier this month. However, despite their financial might, the Dodgers haven’t handed out exorbitant free-agent contracts during president Andrew Friedman’s reign, and they’re reportedly not inclined to give Harper the long-term pact he wants.

2. Manny Machado, SS/3B (original prediction: 13 years, $390MM): As a 26-year-old who has been an elite player at times, Machado entered free agency in a similar position to Harper. Like Harper, Machado has drawn interest from the the Phillies, Yankees and White Sox, having met with all three teams this month. Various reports have indicated Machado wants to play for the Yankees, yet the infield-needy club doesn’t seem prepared to go to the $300MM mark for him. Regardless, we may find out his next destination soon.

3. Dallas Keuchel, LHP (original prediction: four years, $82MM): While Keuchel’s still an easily above-average starter, the career-long Astro hasn’t been able to replicate the AL Cy Young-winning form he showed in 2015. Both Keuchel’s recent decline in production and his age (he’ll be 31 on New Year’s Day) are working against him on the open market, but he’s nonetheless seeking a five-year deal. His desire for security over the next half-decade has reportedly led to leeriness from the Phillies and Nationals (and maybe others). But beyond Philadelphia and Washington, a bevy of other teams have shown interest in Keuchel during free agency. The Boras client is going to do well on his next contract, then, though he may have no choice but to drop his price before he puts pen to paper with someone.

4. Craig Kimbrel, RP (original prediction: four years, $70MM): Although Kimbrel is one of the greatest relievers in history, he showed some cracks last season as a member of the World Series-winning Red Sox. Compared to Kimbrel’s otherworldly 2017 campaign, his strikeout rate fell by nearly 11 percentage points, his swinging-strike rate dropped by more than 2.5 points and his walk rate increased by over 7 ticks. Kimbrel was still outstanding, granted, but maybe not enough to merit the massive contract he’s pursuing. The richest deal ever given to a reliever – five years, $86MM – belongs to the Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman, who signed it when he was still in his late 20s. Kimbrel will turn 31 in May, and there hasn’t been strong reported interest in him thus far. The Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals and Braves have been connected to Kimbrel in rumors, but none of those clubs are itching to meet his demands.

5. Yasmani Grandal, C (original prediction: four years, $64MM): Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, who have since filled their vacancy behind the plate with Wilson Ramos. In the estimation of MLBTR readers, he made a mistake in spurning the Mets’ generous proposal. Along with New York, each of the Nationals, Braves, Astros, White Sox and Angels entered the offseason as potential Grandal suitors but have since made acquisitions behind the plate. In some cases (Atlanta, Houston, Chicago and Anaheim), those pickups haven’t been particularly expensive, so perhaps Grandal will still end up in one of those cities. The longtime Dodger probably won’t continue his career with them, however, as they’ve been more connected to Marlins star J.T. Realmuto – whose presence on the trade market doesn’t do Grandal any favors – and aren’t champing at the bit to hand out a long-term deal to the switch-hitting 30-year-old.

6. A.J. Pollock, CF (original prediction: four years, $60MM): Even though he’s 31 and has dealt with a spate of injuries during his career, reports have indicated Pollock’s holding out for a lengthy commitment worth $80MM or more.  When healthy, Pollock’s probably worth that type of money. The problem is that the soon-to-be former Diamondback is coming off a three-year stretch in which he missed 249 games. Further, perhaps because of his supposed demands, a couple of the teams that have been connected to Pollock this offseason may have already moved on from him. The Astros signed Michael Brantley, while the Reds acquired Puig and Kemp. The Mets and Braves may be among the teams still in play for Pollock, a qualifying offer recipient, though the former’s GM has suggested otherwise and the latter doesn’t seem likely to give a lucrative, long-term contract to a 30-something.

7. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP (original prediction: six years, $42MM): As a free agent from Japan, the 27-year-old Kikuchi is the only player on this list with no major league track record. Further, unlike other free agents, there’s a deadline for Kikuchi to sign. Kikuchi’s Japanese team, the Seibu Lions, posted him Dec. 4, giving him and Boras until Jan. 2 to hammer out a deal with a major league club. Assuming Kikuchi does sign, there’s optimism he’ll become the latest big league success story from his homeland. In the meantime, it’s anyone’s guess which team Kikuchi will choose, as he implied earlier this month he’s open to joining any of the majors’ 30 franchises.

8. Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL (original prediction: four years, $36MM): There’s a lot to like about Gonzalez, a switch-hitting, league-average offensive player who can line up at every infield position and both corner outfield spots. Gonzalez, who will turn 30 in March, reportedly drew interest from just about every team at the start of the offseason. Things have been quiet on the Gonzalez front lately, though, aside from a connection to the Padres three weeks ago.

9. Zach Britton, RP (original prediction: three years, $33MM); 10. David Robertson, RP (OP: three years, $33MM); 11. Adam Ottavino, RP (OP: three years, $30MM): Considering these three are the best non-Kimbrel relievers available and have some common teams chasing them, we’ll group them together. The Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox have been after all three at times, and there has been plenty of interest from other clubs. Still, given that Britton, Robertson and Ottavino are all over 30, it’s unclear whether three-year estimates will prove overly optimistic.

12. Jed Lowrie, 2B (original prediction: three years, $30MM): Lowrie was one of the A’s best players and among the majors’ premier second basemen from 2017-18, but he’s also a soon-to-be 35-year-old with an extensive injury history. Moreover, he’s part of a market which features several other starting-caliber second basemen, and Oakland – arguably his most likely destination at one point – removed itself from the equation when it acquired Jurickson Profar last week. The switch-hitting Lowrie nonetheless wants a three-year deal, though he may have to settle for two.

13. Kelvin Herrera, RP (original prediction: one year, $8MM): With a strong platform season, the 28-year-old, flamethrowing Herrera may have been in line to sign the second-richest deal among relievers this winter. Instead, after a tremendous start with the Royals, he scuffled following a June trade to the Nationals. Worsening matters, Herrera’s season ended in late August on account of a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. Herrera’s now making progress in his rehab, though reported interest in him has been almost nonexistent so far this offseason. Minnesota’s the only team that has been connected to Herrera on MLBTR’s pages since the 2018 campaign ended.

14. Gio Gonzalez, LHP (original prediction: two years, $24MM): Gonzalez is a longtime innings eater who has totaled at least 2.0 fWAR in nine straight seasons, yet only the Mets have shown reported interest in him thus far. He can probably thank his age (33) and somewhat disappointing 2018 for that. Compared to 2017 – one of Gonzalez’s most effective seasons – his inning, strikeout, walk and run prevention numbers all went in the wrong direction.

15. Brian Dozier, 2B (original prediction: one year, $10MM); 16. DJ LeMahieu, 2B (OP: two years, $18MM): The Nationals have been tied to these two accomplished second basemen in free agency, though it stands to reason Dozier and LeMahieu have more than one matching suitor. The Dozier rumor mill has been nearly silent, however, owing to the surprisingly poor 2018 the former Twins star endured with them and the Dodgers. LA may end up replacing Dozier with LeMahieu, who also had a less-than-ideal season from an offensive standpoint. However, the stellar defensive track record the 30-year-old LeMahieu built as a member of the Rockies at least gives him a high floor.

17. Mike Moustakas, 3B (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Moustakas was one of the most well-known stragglers on a slow-moving market last offseason. Moose entered the winter looking like a potential $85MM player, but he ultimately re-signed with the Royals in March for just a $6.5MM guarantee. Now, after his offensive production declined in 2018 between Kansas City and Milwaukee, it’s an open question whether Moustakas will do much better this offseason. So far, the Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies and Mets have shown some level of interest in the 30-year-old.

18. Cody Allen, RP (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Allen enjoyed tons of success as the Indians’ closer from 2013-17, and had that continued last season, he could have been in line for a huge contract. Unfortunately for Allen, though, his numbers came crashing down in 2018, and his velocity dropped as the year progressed. Given that teams can’t regard the 30-year-old as a shutdown option anymore, reported interest has been scarce. It seems the Indians could bring Allen back, while the division-rival Twins have also considered him.

19. Nick Markakis, OF (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Brantley and Andrew McCutchen are off the board, and Harper and Pollock are unrealistic for most teams. That could work to the advantage of Markakis, the next best free-agent outfielder available, though he’s more of a satisfactory regular than a high-impact one. Markakis was a first-time All-Star in 2018, but the 35-year-old’s offensive production cratered over the season’s last two months, giving him a final batting line that was more decent than exceptional. Still, as a roughly league-average hitter who gets on base, can handle both lefties and righties and hasn’t missed more than seven games in a season since 2012, Markakis could give some team an acceptable stopgap over the next year or two. A return to Atlanta, where he has played since 2015, may be in the offing.

20. Derek Holland, LHP (original prediction: two years, $15MM): After four straight down or injury-limited seasons with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland had to settle for a minors deal with the Giants last February. It proved to be a perfect match, as Holland made the Giants’ roster and returned to relevance in San Francisco. Across 171 1/3 innings (36 appearances, 30 starts), Holland showed better velocity than he offered in 2017 and posted a 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP, a career-high K/9 (8.88), a personal-best infield fly percentage (11.8) and his second-highest swinging-strike rate (10.1 percent). So, even though Holland’s still unemployed, he’ll get a guaranteed contract – potentially from his old team in Texas – this offseason.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.