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MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Dodgers Notes: Martinez, Ohtani, Burnes, Heyward, Betts

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Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.

That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.

After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.

Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.

On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.

Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.

Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.

The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Rays Notes: Glasnow, Margot, Ohtani, Caminero

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Every Rays offseason inevitably leads to trade rumors about their higher-salaried players, whether it’s players getting increasingly expensive through their arbitration years or players entering more expensive years of their current contracts.  The same should be true this winter, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot “seem likely to be in trade discussions” as the Rays try both manage their budget and maintain a competitive roster.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline.  Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg.  The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season.  The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due.  That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season.  An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation.  Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure.  Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option).  Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers.  Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid.  Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield.  Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts.  Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star.  That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability.  Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

Latest On Red Sox’s GM Search, Offseason Plans

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After firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month, the Red Sox are in the midst of a search for their next baseball operations leader. Team president Sam Kennedy recently spoke to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam regarding the club’s preferences in their search, and made clear that the club is open to a hire who doesn’t have experience as the top decision maker in a front office.

Kennedy referred to past experience in a front office leadership role as “definitely not a requirement” before referencing GMs from around the league who had success in their first job as a top front office executive, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman and former Red Sox and Cubs executive Theo Epstein.

McAdam goes on to reference Phillies GM Sam Fuld, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, and Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero as candidates the Red Sox have interest in who have never led a baseball operations department before, though he also notes more experienced candidates the club has been linked to such as Marlins GM Kim Ng (whose contract is up in Miami) and former Astros GM James Click, who currently serves as vice president of baseball strategy for the Blue Jays. The Red Sox had also been previously reported to have interest in Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, though the possibility of Hazen departing Arizona was squashed by his recent extension with the club. Referencing the potential of a job with the Red Sox following his extension, Hazen acknowledged his ties to Boston before emphasizing that he wasn’t ready to leave Arizona.

Aside from the club’s ongoing GM search, McAdam pushes back against a recent report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, which characterizes Boston as “a real threat” to sign two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. Despite that, McAdam reports that Ohtani was “not at all a focus” of Boston’s early meetings regarding their offseason plans, and that principal owner John Henry is against the sort of long-term megadeal it would surely require to lure Ohtani to the Red Sox.

To McAdam’s point, prior to the club’s $331MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers, the club had signed a contract that surpasses $200MM just once by signing left-hander David Price to a seven-year, $217MM pact. With the Devers deal freshly on the books on top of existing deals for shortstop Trevor Story and left-hander Chris Sale, it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox offering the massive contract it would likely require to land Ohtani.

Perry Minasian Discusses Ohtani, Payroll, Nevin

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Angels GM Perry Minasian conducted the club’s end-of-season presser this afternoon, and in doing so discussed an array of topics with reporters following a brutally disappointing 2023 campaign that saw the club go 73-89 during Shohei Ohtani’s last season under club control and miss the postseason for the ninth consecutive season.

Speaking of Ohtani, Minasian told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that he believes “this is a place that he enjoys playing and this is a place that he loves.” Though he acknowledged that Ohtani was disappointed that the club didn’t improve in 2023 (instead posting an identical record to the 2022 club), he adds that “you get the feeling that this is a place he really, really appreciates, respects. And we’ll just have to see what happens over the course of the offseason.”

Minasian’s comments regarding Ohtani, while reiterating the the team would love to retain the two-way phenom next season, give Angels fans little reason for optimism as Ohtani heads to the open market with a chance at a record-setting free agent deal, even as he rehabs from an elbow procedure that will keep him off of the mound until 2025. Further casting doubt on a potential return to Anaheim for Ohtani were comments from Minasian regarding the club’s payroll outlook, as the GM admitted (as relayed by Sam Blum of The Athletic), that he couldn’t say whether or not ownership would be willing to replicate the club’s 2023 payroll, which was the highest of Arte Moreno’s tenure as owner. Re-signing Ohtani would almost certainly require a massive financial outlay, to say nothing of the other additions necessary to build a contender around both him and fellow generational star Mike Trout.

While Minasian said that Moreno is “motivated to win”, he also admitted that he isn’t yet certain whether or not the club was able to duck under the luxury tax threshold by the end of the year. In service of that goal, the clubs lashed payroll in the final months of the season by putting half-a-dozen veteran players on expiring deals on waivers, including major deadline acquisition Lucas Giolito. If the Angels do wind up paying the luxury tax in 2023, it will be the first time they’ve done so under Moreno’s ownership.

Minasian also discussed the club’s decision to part ways with manager Phil Nevin and the uncertain futures of members of both the coaching staff and front office. Minasian noted (per Blum) that the club had not yet made any final personnel decisions beyond moving on from Nevin as manager, who was let go due to a “collaborative” decision between Moreno and Minasian himself. As Blum notes, it’s an interesting departure from the decision to fire manager Joe Maddon last summer, which was made by Minasian alone. It would appear the club hasn’t begun to determine who will replace Nevin as manager, as Fletcher notes that Minasian told reporters that the club does not yet have a list of potential managerial candidates, and that there’s no timeline for a decision at this point.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR continues previewing the free agent class, with a focus on which starters and relievers might be flying a bit under the radar as quality signings for 2024 (0:50)
  • The Padres are planning to reduce payroll next season, and could some broader front office changes also be coming? (11:00)
  • After another losing season and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, would the Angels explore rebuilding (and trading Mike Trout) to get the franchise back on track? (15:06)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, and what kind of contracts could each pitcher land in free agency?(23:03)
  • Could the Braves’ pitching injuries short-circuit their postseason chances? (28:48)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here
  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender — listen here

Shohei Ohtani Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Shohei Ohtani underwent surgery today to address the UCL tear in his right elbow, according to a statement released by his agent Nez Balelo.  The exact type of the surgery (whether a Tommy John procedure or an internal brace) wasn’t specified by Balelo or Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed the procedure.

“The ultimate plan after deliberation with Shohei was to repair the issue at hand and to reinforce the healthy ligament in place while adding viable tissue for the longevity of the elbow,” Dr. ElAttrache said in the statement.  “I expect full recovery and he’ll be ready to hit without any restrictions come Opening Day of 2024 and do both (hit and pitch) come 2025.”

Ohtani himself also commented on the situation via his Instagram page, in a somewhat uncharacteristic move for a player known for his relative lack of public statements.  Ohtani’s statement: “I had a procedure done on my elbow earlier this morning and everything went well.  Thank you very much for everyone’s prayers and kind words.  It was very unfortunate that I couldn’t finish out the year on the field, but I will be rooting on the boys until the end.  I will work as hard as I can and do my best to come back on the diamond stronger than ever.  Go Halos!!”

As noted by Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group, ElAttrache’s description seems to imply that Ohtani opted for a brace procedure, or at least something different than a standard Tommy John surgery.  TJ procedures have a fairly set timeline of 13-15 months while brace procedures (a relatively newer type of surgery) have generally had a shorter timeline, yet ElAttrache’s statement indicates that Ohtani isn’t expected to pitch in 2024.

It is possible more information on Ohtani’s pitching status might develop as he continues to rehab, though Balelo said “the final decision and type of procedure was made with a heavy emphasis on the big picture.  Shohei wanted to make sure the direction taken gave him every opportunity to hit and pitch for many years to come.”  With this caution in mind, it seems possible that Ohtani isn’t planning to pitch in 2024 whatsoever, especially since he already had a Tommy John surgery in late 2018 that limited him to DH-only duty in 2019.

Ohtani still hit a very solid .286/.343/.505 with 18 homers over 425 plate appearances in 2019, with his season debut held off until May 7 due to the TJ rehab process.  He then pitched only 1 2/3 innings in 2020 due to a flexor strain and also struggled at the plate during the abbreviated 60-game season, but Ohtani has subsequently rebounded with three of the most uniquely superb seasons in baseball history.

Since Opening Day 2021, Ohtani has a 2.84 ERA over 428 1/3 innings pitched, while hitting .277/.379/.585 with 124 home runs over 1904 PA.  This two-way excellence earned him AL MVP honors in 2021, a runner-up MVP finish in 2022, and very likely another MVP trophy this season, even though his year has been cut short by injury.  The UCL tear meant that Ohtani’s last start came on August 23, and while he attempted to keep going as a hitter, he hasn’t played since September 3 due to an oblique strain.  The Angels announced over the weekend that Ohtani had officially been placed on the 10-day injured list, and wouldn’t play again in 2023.

Attention now turns to Ohtani’s next decision, as he’ll enter free agency with a resume unlike any other player to ever reach the open market.  It remains to be seen how Ohtani’s surgery will impact his market, though even if he is unable to pitch in 2024, most pundits feel he’ll still land a record-setting deal, perhaps topping the $500MM threshold.

It is quite possible that the marketing opportunities and extra revenues available to the team that signs Ohtani will offset the extra risk of his elbow problems, as even if there is some natural long-term question about Ohtani’s arm health, he provides plenty of value even if he “only” an elite hitter.  Interested clubs will obviously want as much information as possible on Ohtani’s health and rehab status before making their decision on a major contract offer, though waiting too long to deliberate might also cost a team a chance at making the signing.

There has been much speculation that Ohtani has already played his last game in an Angels uniform.  Los Angeles has shown a willingness to pay big money for star talent, yet since Ohtani has been vocal about his desire to play for a winner, the Angels’ string of eight consecutive losing seasons might get him looking elsewhere, no matter what ownership might offer in a new contract.  Ohtani’s free agency will be the key storyline of the 2023-24 offseason, and it isn’t a reach to say that much of the winter business around the sport might be held up to some extent until Ohtani chooses his next team.

Shohei Ohtani Out For Season With Oblique Strain

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8:19PM: Minasian told ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and other reporters that Ohtani underwent an MRI on Friday that showed continued oblique irritation, so the decision was made to shut him down for the remainder of 2023.  “I don’t have details on [Ohtani’s upcoming elbow] procedure, but obviously he wants to get that as quick as he can and start getting ready for ’24,” Minasian said.  In regards to Ohtani’s early locker clearout, Minasian explained that “I think in his mind he thought there was a possibility for a procedure today, and that’s why he packed.”  Largely sidestepping a question about the Angels’ chances of re-signing Ohtani, Minasian said media would have to ask the player himself, adding that “it’s been a pleasure to get to know him these last three years and hopefully he’s here for a long time.”

2:03PM: The Angels have placed Shohei Ohtani on the injured list with an oblique strain, the team announced to reporters, including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. This marks the end of both his 2023 season, and quite possibly his tenure with the Angels.

Ohtani was in the midst of the best season of his already remarkable career when a UCL tear stopped him in his tracks in mid-August. While he might have opted to address the injury immediately (increasing his chances of making a quick return in 2024) he chose instead to play out the rest of the year as a designated hitter. Unfortunately, he suffered a second injury just ten days later, hurting his oblique during batting practice. At the time, the team believed the injury to be minor, but Ohtani would go on to sit out the next several games. On Friday, after he missed his 11th game in a row, reporters noticed his locker at Angel Stadium had been cleared out, inviting speculation that Ohtani was being shut down.

General manager Perry Minasian is expected to provide further information later today. So could Ohtani himself, who is expected to be at the ballpark when the Angels take on the Tigers for the second game of the weekend series.

While this clearly isn’t the outcome Ohtani or the Angels were hoping for, an early end to his season could give the two-way star a chance to address his torn UCL as soon as possible. Earlier this month, his agent Nez Balelo revealed that some sort of procedure to repair his elbow was “inevitable.” It is not clear what type of procedure (such as Tommy John surgery or an internal bracing procedure) Ohtani might face, but any kind of elbow repair comes with recovery time. Ohtani has no timetable for his return to the mound, but the sooner he seeks treatment, the sooner he can begin the rehabilitation process.

Ohtani is set to become a free agent following the season, and his impending free agency has been the talk of the sport throughout the year. Before his injury issues popped up, many thought he could command upwards of $500MM on the open market, and even now, Ohtani still seems likely to sign the largest free agent deal in MLB history. His durability is a legitimate cause for concern, but when he’s on the field, Ohtani’s two-way ability naturally creates a bigger impact than any of his peers. Over the past three years, he has hit 124 home runs with a .964 OPS and a 2.84 ERA. That level of performance will net him an enormous payday, even if Ohtani doesn’t step onto a mound during the first year of his next contract.

Whether that enormous payday comes from the Angels or another club, however, remains to be seen. Right now, it’s hard to imagine Ohtani is all that optimistic about the direction in which his team is headed; Los Angeles is two losses away from its eighth straight losing season, despite an MVP-caliber effort from their best player. Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he has previously suggested that he wants to play for a winning team. Thus, it’s quite possible he has already played his last game in an Angels uniform – a 10-6 loss to the Athletics in which he went 0-for-3 with two walks, so hardly a storybook ending.

On the bright side, Ohtani still has a chance to go out on a high note when awards season rolls around. He seems like a lock to win his second AL MVP, even though his injury gives other contenders (i.e. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez) a slight chance to catch up. Currently, Ohtani leads the AL with 44 home runs, a .412 on-base percentage, and 325 total bases, to go along with his 3.14 ERA in 23 starts. He also leads the second-place Seager by 2.6 FanGraphs WAR and 3.1 Baseball Reference WAR, which is a cavernous gap to close with just 15 games remaining on the schedule.

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