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Shota Imanaga

Yankees Interested In Shota Imanaga

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As the Yankees consider the pitching market, left-hander Shota Imanaga is one of the many hurlers on the team’s radar, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Imanaga would essentially be a backup plan if the Yankees can’t sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has long been cited as one of the Bronx Bombers’ top offseason targets.

It isn’t a stretch to say other teams could be viewing Imanaga in the same manner, given the overlap in suitors between his market and Yamamoto’s market.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Tigers have all been linked to both Japanese pitchers at various points this offseason, and the Cubs are the only known Imanaga suitor who doesn’t appear to be in on Yamamoto.  This could theoretically give Chicago a slight edge in being able to more fully focus on its courtship of Imanaga, yet the southpaw and his reps probably aren’t likely to sign a deal until Yamamoto makes his decision, so Imanaga can perhaps benefit by finding a larger deal in a thinning pitching market.

The clock is ticking for Yamamoto and Imanaga given the 45-day posting windows for both players, though there is plenty of time left for the two pitchers to land contracts.  Yamamoto has until January 4 to sign with a Major League team, while Imanaga has until January 9.  As per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system, a Japanese team who posts a player is entitled to a posting fee worth 20% of first $25MM of the player’s eventual big league contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, of anything beyond the $50MM threshold.  For instance, the Yokohama BayStars (Imanaga’s NPB team) would receive a $13.875MM release fee if the lefty signed the five-year, $85MM deal predicted in MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.

Recent reports have suggested that the 30-year-old Imanaga might land a contract closer to $100MM, speaking to both the rising costs of pitching and the interest in his services.  That would still make Imanaga a much less costly proposition than Yamamoto, whose price tag was expected to top $200MM heading into the offseason and now might be approaching the $300MM mark.

Imanaga is almost five years older than Yamamoto and isn’t considered to have a similar ace-level ceiling, but Imanaga projects as a solid middle-of-the-rotation type of arm as he makes the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors.  Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA over 1002 2/3 career innings for the BayStars, with excellent control, very good strikeout numbers, and quite a bit of durability (with the exception of a shoulder surgery in 2020).

The Yankees dealt away a good chunk of their rotation depth by moving Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade.  Gerrit Cole is the ace of a staff that includes Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, and the fifth spot in the rotation is now a question mark with King in San Diego.  Signing Imanaga would bolster the rotation for 2024 and beyond, and while a $100MM deal isn’t exactly a bargain signing, New York might prefer that outlay to other alternatives.  Signing another top pitcher might cost even more in both money or in draft picks (for a qualifying offer-rejecting hurler), or the Yankees would have to surrender even more young talent to land a top trade chip like Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease.

Dodgers Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto On Tuesday

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Dec. 13: Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were all present at Dodger Stadium yesterday for the team’s recruitment pitch to Yamamoto, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken  Rosenthal of The Athletic. Dorsey tweets that Will Smith, Yamamoto’s potential batterymate if he signs in Los Angeles, was also present.

Dec. 12: The Dodgers met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto today as the star right-hander continues his North American tour, reports Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (on X). They’re the sixth team known to chat with the 25-year-old free agent.

Mets officials flew to Japan to speak with Yamamoto last week. The pitcher and his camp are now traveling around the U.S. and Canada as they interview with other teams in the mix. Yamamoto met with the Giants two days ago and the Yankees yesterday. He’ll chat with the Red Sox and Blue Jays later in the week.

After signing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are on the hunt for rotation help. L.A. has been linked to virtually every starting pitcher of note in free agency or trade. The Dodgers have Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller locked into two rotation spots. They figure to at least two starters to a middle to back end that includes Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough while Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May work back from surgery.

Yamamoto is widely viewed as the best remaining free agent. He is increasingly expected to command a contract approaching or exceeding $300MM, to say nothing of the posting fee an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes.

While Yamamoto is easily the top pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason, he’s not the only one. Left-hander Shota Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, was posted by the Yokohama BayStars. He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA with an excellent 29.2% strikeout rate over 148 innings. In an appearance on MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi indicated the Dodgers had some level of interest in Imanaga. Teams like the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers have also been tied to the southpaw at points this offseason.

Roster Resource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number for 2024 just south of $220MM. That leaves them $17MM below the base threshold and well shy of their estimated $267MM CBT number from last season.

Red Sox Rumors: Second Base, Rotation, Turner, Outfield

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The Red Sox have a clear need at second base this winter, and as recently noted, newly installed chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated to reporters that he feels a trade is likelier than a free-agent signing. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic adds some more context from Breslow’s media session, noting that he called the “ideal” acquisition a right-handed bat and plus defender.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

Free Agent Notes: Imanaga, Fedde, Barnes

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last month, kicking off a 45-day window during which he’ll be eligible to sign with major league clubs. While Imanaga only just officially joined the ranks of MLB’s free agents days ago, he’s long been expected to be posted this offseason. That’s allowed Imanaga’s free agency to develop considerable buzz in recent months.

While he’s largely been overshadowed by NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s widely considered the top starting pitcher on this offseason’s market, Imanaga is an impressive pitcher in his own right who is expected to be a potential mid-rotation arm in the big leagues with a low-nineties fastball as part of a deep pitch mix that Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions recently profiled. MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth (sixth among starting pitchers) on our annual top 50 free agents list and projected him for a five year, $85MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that Imanaga’s market may be even stronger than expected, noting in a recent article that while teams were initially hopeful the southpaw could be had on a deal similar to the five-year, $75MM pact Kodai Senga landed last offseason, his final deal figures to exceed that, potentially to the point of approaching a $100MM guarantee.

Should Imanaga’s contract ultimately reach the $100MM range suggested by Passan, it would be a major win not only for Imanaga but also the BayStars. Imanaga’s free agency is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, under which the team that signs the left-hander would owe the BayStars a posting fee worth as much as 20% of Imanaga’s total guarantee, with the percentage going down as the price of Imanaga’s contract goes up. If Imanaga were to sign for $100MM guaranteed, the BayStars would receive approximately $16.9MM, or just over $2MM more than they would receive if Imanaga signed an $85MM deal in line with MLBTR’s projections. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets have all been connected to Imanaga so far this offseason, though it’s certainly possible more teams are involved in the bidding for the 30-year-old’s services.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Former Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde is among the most interesting free agents on the market this offseason after a dominant season with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports have indicated that Fedde, who sports a career 5.41 ERA across six seasons in the majors but altered his repertoire before dominating to the tune of a 2.00 ERA across 30 starts with the Dinos this year, has garnered interest from both the Dinos and MLB clubs. Su-eun Jeon of Baseball Korea (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO) adds additional clarity to those reports, noting that Fedde has received interest from two MLB teams and a team in Japan’s NPB in addition to the offer he’s received to return to the Dinos. While it’s possible that Fedde could look to return to stateside ball this offseason, it’s worth noting that no former big leaguer returning from the KBO has secured a guarantee of even $10MM in the majors. That could lead Fedde to bet on himself by either remaining with the Dinos in hopes of a similarly dominant season in 2024 to further bolster his case for a more significant pact, or even consider a move to Japan in order to face NPB’s stiffer competition.
  • Fedde isn’t the only American-born player of note who could look to return to the majors this offseason, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests left-hander Charlie Barnes is expected to garner MLB interest in free agency this offseason. Barnes, 28, was a fourth-round pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft and made nine appearances with the big league club in 2021. He struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 38 innings of work for Minnesota across nine appearances. He’s spent the two years since then pitching for the KBO’s Lotte Giants, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 61 starts. Looking just at his 2023 season, Barnes struck out 20% of batters faced with a 3.28 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work. In addition to the aforementioned MLB interest, Morosi suggests that the Giants are expected to have strong interest in retaining Barnes, who served as the ace of their staff this season.

Mets Continuing To Explore Rotation Market

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The Mets are soon to add Luis Severino to their rotation, as they’re in the process of finalizing a $13MM contract with the longtime Yankee. That’s one of what’ll surely be multiple additions to the starting staff, as New York entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and José Quintana locked into rotation spots.

There’s no secret about their interest in NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the three-time winner of the Sawamura Award (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). Upwards of a dozen teams are in the mix for the 25-year-old righty, who seems likely to command the largest contract of any pure pitcher in this year’s class. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that some rival clubs consider the Mets the favorite on Yamamoto, but there’ll be no shortage of competition.

Unsurprisingly, the front office has its eye on multiple options on the open market. Michael Marino of Fantrax tweeted this week that the club was showing interest in left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Andy Martino of SNY echoes that sentiment, calling Montgomery “a more likely target” than fellow free agent southpaws Blake Snell and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Montgomery has been a popular name. He is also known to have drawn attention from the Red Sox, Yankees and incumbent Rangers. It stands to reason there are numerous additional suitors for the soon to be 31-year-old, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA across 188 2/3 innings. That’s a career-best mark, but he has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine while reaching 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons.

In addition to their Yamamoto pursuit, the Mets apparently also have some level of interest in Shota Imanaga. Martino adds that they’ll “explore” the market on the left-hander, the second-best pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason. Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars this week, opening a 45-day window for him to sign with a major league team.

While Imanaga isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, he has a chance to beat the five-year, $75MM pact which the Mets gave Senga last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so he’s one of the younger free agent arms available (albeit nowhere near as young as Yamamoto). He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA showing over 148 innings in NPB. Imanaga struck out 174 hitters, fanning a little over 29% of batters faced. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke projected him as a potential mid-rotation arm. Brandon Tew of Spots Info Solutions took a look at Imanaga’s repertoire yesterday, praising his command and the carry he generates on his low-90s four-seam fastball.

Each of Montgomery and Imanaga could land five or more years. A pact of that length would align with the Mets’ general competitive timeline. Team officials have made clear they won’t punt on the upcoming season but are targeting 2025 and beyond as a more realistic contention window.

To that end, Martino suggests they’re unlikely to be actively involved in trade discussions for a star player whose contract expires at the end of next season. He reports that the Mets are not in discussions with the Rays on Tyler Glasnow at present. (While Martino doesn’t specifically mention Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber, it’d be similarly logical for the team to mostly sit out those discussions as well.) They’re seemingly reluctant to relinquish significant future value for a rental on the heels of a fourth-place finish in a competitive NL East.

NPB’s Yokohama BayStars Post Shota Imanaga

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball formally posted top left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League clubs on Monday, per the Kyodo News. It’s been known for months that Imanaga would be posted for big league clubs, but the timing of the move wasn’t clear until last Wednesday, when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Imanaga would be posted today.

Once MLB approves the posting and notifies teams that Imanaga is indeed available (a formality), that will kick off a 45-day negotiation window. One week ago today, NPB’s Orix Buffaloes posted ace and reigning three-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) Yoshinobu Yamamoto for MLB clubs. His negotiation window officially commenced the following morning. Imanaga will likely follow an identical pattern, with his negotiation window formally opening Tuesday morning.

Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, just wrapped up a second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his third in the past five seasons. He tossed 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the BayStars in 2023, punching out 29.5% of his opponents against a sensational 3.8% walk rate. Since 2019, he’s posted a collective 2.79 earned run average, 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. A 2022 no-hitter headlines that five-year run of excellence.

While he may not bet the unusually young power arm that his countryman Yamamoto is, Imanaga is nonetheless viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter in MLB. Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that he’d added some life to his fastball and was sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also has a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider, as examined in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions

Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a posting/release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six-plus weeks.

Shota Imanaga Likely To Be Posted By Monday

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The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are planning to post left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League teams sometime between now and Monday, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While prior reporting had indicated that Imanaga might not be posted until fellow NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already signed, it instead appears that Imanaga will be posted about a week after Yamamoto. That creates some overlap in the two posting periods but also gives Imanaga at least a few days for teams that miss out on Yamamoto to explore the possibility of instead signing him.

While both Imanaga and Yamamoto are highly regarded, Imanaga is widely expected to sign the lesser contract in terms of both years and dollars. That’s due partially to the fact that Yamamoto is regarded as the superior pitcher, of course, but the primary reason for Yamamoto being projected to sign a deal more than twice as lucrative as Imanaga is the age gap between the two. Yamamoto just turned 25 in August; Imanaga turned 30 in September.

As such, Imanaga’s age is more in line with that of standard Major League free agents, who tend to reach the open market around 30-31 years of age. There are exceptions, but particularly among pitchers, a player reaching the market in his mid-to-late 20s is quite rare.

Although Imanaga doesn’t have the bonus allure of being an atypically young free agent, he nonetheless figures to command a weighty long-term deal himself. The southpaw’s 2023 season featured 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball — his second straight sub-3.00 mark and his third in five years. (The two other seasons “only” saw Imanaga post marks of 3.08 and 3.23.) Imanaga fanned 29.5% of his opponents this past season against a superlative 3.8% walk rate.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He isn’t necessarily overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted late in the year that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 season. He pairs that heater with a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider hybrid, as noted in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions.

Whenever Imanaga is posted, it will mark the start of a 45-day window for him to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six to seven weeks.

The Opener: Go, Nevin, Glasnow

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With Thanksgiving Day drawing near, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Will more international players be posted soon? 

On Tuesday, the LG Twins of the KBO agreed to post right-handed pitcher Woo-Suk Go. The Korean posting system is similar to the Japanese posting system (by which Yoshinobu Yamamoto was recently made available) in that MLB teams have a 45-day window to negotiate with the player after he is officially posted. However, there is no word yet as to when the Twins will initiate the process and open Go’s window.

Shota Imanaga, one of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, is another international player whose posting timeline remains unclear. Earlier this month, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yokohama DeNA BayStars would post Imanaga on Monday, November 13. Needless to say, that date has come and gone, and the southpaw remains unavailable to MLB clubs. It’s possible that Imanaga and the BayStars are waiting for fellow NPB All-Star Yamamoto to sign and set the market, in which case it seems more likely that Go, a reliever, will be the next international player to be posted.

2. Will Phil Nevin coach in 2024?

Yesterday morning, the Padres announced the hiring of Mike Shildt as their new manager. The former Cardinals’ skipper beat out various other candidates for the role, including Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. However, the most high-profile finalist who lost out on the job was former Angels manager Phil Nevin. Eight different teams replaced their skippers this offseason, but Nevin, who spent just under two years at the helm in LA, did not land a new managerial gig.

However, if he is interested in returning to the dugout, there are still coaching vacancies around the league. Indeed, per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Nevin is in the mix to be the Mets’ bench coach under new manager Carlos Mendoza. The two worked together previously with the Yankees, and Nevin told the Post, “If they were to ask, I would do anything for Carlos.”

3. Is a Tyler Glasnow trade on the horizon?

Plenty of names have been floated in trade rumors this offseason, but perhaps none is as sure to be moved as Tyler Glasnow. The 30-year-old will earn $25MM this season, after which he is set to hit the open market. Given his high salary and impending free agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays will “definitely” trade him this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is similarly confident that Glasnow will be pitching for a new team in 2024.

With the free agent market for top-of-the-rotation arms potentially slowing down until Yamamoto signs, perhaps the trade market will start to heat up. The Rays would surely like some additional payroll clarity as soon as possible, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Glasnow traded sooner rather than later.

Cubs Interested In Shota Imanaga, “Have An Eye On” Corbin Burnes

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“The Cubs would like to acquire a starter” to add to their rotation depth, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes, with the idea that a new arm would help make up for the departure of Marcus Stroman.  To this end, the Cubs are exploring options on both the free agent and trade fronts, including Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga and Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes.  As has been previously reported, Chicago is also in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, and of course the Cubs are one of the teams known to be interested in Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani’s UCL surgery will keep him off the mound in 2024.

The Red Sox are the only other team publicly linked to Imanaga’s market thus far, and technically, his market has yet to officially open.  The Yokonama DeNA Baystars haven’t yet posted Imanaga for Major League teams, though the move is expected any day now.  Once Imanaga is posted, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal with an MLB club, or else he’ll return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Imanaga has a long track record of success in NPB and on the international stage, including a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 innings with the Baystars, two NPB All-Star nods, and a World Baseball Classic gold medal as part of Japan’s championship team in 2023.  MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander, with Anthony Franco even predicting that Imanaga would land with the Cubs.

While $85MM isn’t small change, it does represent significantly less than Ohtani or Yamamoto will receive, making Imanaga an interesting backup plan for the Cubs (and other teams) if they don’t land one of the bigger names on the pitching market.  Five years/$85MM happens to be exactly what Chicago gave to another notable Japanese player in Seiya Suzuki two offseasons ago.  Though the Cubs did sign Dansby Swanson for $177MM last winter, Rogers notes that “under [president of baseball operations Jed] Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts, the Cubs have been measured in their dealings with free agents.  Setting Ohtani aside, the organization isn’t the type that gets into bidding wars.”

Burnes’ price tag would just cover the 2024 season, as the former NL Cy Young Award winner is set for free agency next winter and is projected for a $15.1MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Of course, Burnes would come at a different cost than just money, as Chicago would have to give up a significant trade package to obtain Burnes from the Brewers.  This might be more of a due diligence situation than a true pursuit, as Rogers writes that the Cubs just “have an eye” on Burnes should Milwaukee make him available in the first place.

A Burnes trade would also be contingent on many other factors, including the larger hurdle of whether or not the Brewers would specifically be open to trading Burnes within the NL Central.  As Rogers notes, Craig Counsell just surprisingly left the Brewers to become the new manager in Wrigleyville, only adding to the rivalry between the two clubs — and quite possibly the unlikelihood of the two sides coming together on any sort of trade, let alone a major swap.

Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon are the Cubs’ current top three starters, with youngsters Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the other two spots and veteran Drew Smyly on hand as either further depth or as a bullpen option.  On paper, this is already a surplus of arms, even before factoring in top prospect Cade Horton likely making his MLB debut in 2024, or Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian as further Triple-A depth.  However, adding another frontline starter would certainly solidify things for a Cubs team that wants to contend in 2024.  Signing Imanaga, for instance, might also give Chicago some flexibility in dealing from that young depth to address other needs.

Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Posting

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It was already known that left-hander Shota Imanaga would be posted this offseason, and reports out of Japan yesterday indicated that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars have officially agreed to the left-hander’s request to explore the North American market.  “If someone has a dream he wants to realize, and we think he has the ability to achieve it, we want to support that,” DeNA executive Tatsuhiro Hagiwara told the Kyodo News and other outlets.

To be clear, the Baystars have only agreed to post Imanaga, and haven’t yet officially posted the southpaw for MLB teams.  Once Imanaga’s posting window properly opens, he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with Major League clubs.  If no deal is reached within the 45 days, Imanaga will return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season, and he’d have to wait until next offseason to again vie for a North American contract.

The 30-year-old Imanaga is one of the more intriguing players available this winter, and MLBTR ranked him 10th on our list of the top 50 free agents of the 2023-24 class.  We’re projecting a five-year, $85MM pact for Imanaga, befitting his status as one of Japan’s top pitchers of recent years.  Imanaga is a two-time NPB All-Star, has a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 career innings with the Baystars, and he won a gold medal with Japan’s championship team at this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Imanaga is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, so a big league team would have to give the Baystars a posting fee on top of whatever they end up paying Imanaga.  The posting fee is worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Imanaga’s contract, with the Baystars receiving more money depending on the total value.  For instance, if Imanaga did sign for that projected $85MM, his new Major League club would owe the Baystars $14.65MM.

Despite this impressive resume, Imanaga is only the second-best NPB starter on the market, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  MLBTR ranks Yamamoto third on our top 50 list and in line for a nine-year, $225MM commitment, based on Yamamoto’s ability and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  Yamamoto is also tied to the posting system via the Orix Buffaloes, and interestingly, Imanaga’s reps at Octagon might be aiming to keep their client out of Yamamoto’s shadow.  According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Baystars might not officially post Imanaga until after Yamamoto has already signed.

This strategy carries some risk.  For one, Yamamoto’s own posting window has yet to begin, though he is expected to be made available to MLB teams relatively soon.  Even if the Buffaloes posted Yamamoto tomorrow, he would still have until December 26 to land a contract, and it seems possible he might take closer to the 45-day maximum to finalize what will likely be one of the winter’s larger contracts.  For example, since many of the same big-market clubs are pursuing both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto’s camp might see if Ohtani could sign first, thus providing more clarity on Yamamoto’s market.

Should this scenario occur, Imanaga might not be posted until sometime in January, creating a bit of a time crunch.  A 45-day window would put Imanaga close to the start of Spring Training, if Imanaga and Octagon also needed time to negotiate with clubs to find an acceptable contract.  This would leave Imanaga with less time to not just find a new team, but to acclimate himself to his new continent, new city, and new coaching staff prior to Spring Training, and it would make sense that Imanaga would want time to properly ramp up for his debut MLB debut.

On the other hand, it isn’t an uncommon tactic for an upper-tier free agent to wait until later into the offseason to sign.  If Yamamoto and some other free agent pitchers and trade candidates are off the board by the time Imanaga is available to be posted, he might have fewer suitors in general, but the remaining suitors might be more desperate (and thus more willing to get into a bidding war) to land one of the few top-tier rotation options still unsigned.

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