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Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum

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After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …

  • Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
  • The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
  • There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
  • Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
  • Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.

Latest On Sonny Gray’s Market

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After a nightmarish year in the Bronx, his first full season with the Yankees, right-hander Sonny Gray is among the majors’ most obvious trade candidates this winter. General manager Brian Cashman has made it known the Yankees are aiming to move Gray, who has drawn plenty of interest this offseason. Along with the previously reported Athletics and Padres, teams that are eyeing Gray include the Braves, Rangers and Twins, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Any team that picks up Gray would be taking on a rental, as 2019 will be the 29-year-old’s final arbitration-eligible campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gray to earn $9.1MM, which may look steep for a pitcher who failed to maintain a spot in the Yankees’ rotation for all of last season and only managed a 4.90 ERA across 130 1/3 innings (30 appearances, 23 starts). However, ERA estimators such as FIP (4.17), xFIP (4.10) and SIERA (4.28) suggest Gray deserved better in the run prevention department in 2018, and while he did issue a high number of walks (3.94 per nine), he also posted quality strikeout (8.49 K/9) and groundball (50 percent) rates. Moreover, Gray’s struggles were mostly limited to the Bronx, as he logged a horrendous 6.98 ERA/5.98 FIP at home and a terrific 3.17 ERA/2.65 FIP on the road. Historically, Gray has been closer to the pitcher he was away from Yankee Stadium last season, as his 3.66 ERA and 3.74 FIP over 900 combined 2/3 innings with the A’s and Yankees demonstrate.

Of the newly listed teams pursuing Gray, the Rangers stand out as the club likely to have the most difficult time making the playoffs next season. Not only are the Rangers a rebuilding team stuck in a division with the Astros, A’s, Mariners and Angels, but they’re ridiculously thin on starting pitchers and may soon deal their No. 1 option, Mike Minor. It would be a surprise to see Texas come out on top in the race for Gray, then, while the other teams seem like more plausible landing spots.

The reigning NL East champion Braves have shown past interest in Gray – albeit with different front office leadership than they have now – and need to replace free agent Anibal Sanchez, who was unexpectedly one of their best starters in 2018. And though the Braves seem to have the payroll room to aim higher than Gray, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has suggested they’re hesitant to dish out expensive long-term deals at this juncture. Therefore, it makes sense that the Braves are interested in Gray, who’d be a relatively low-risk addition.

Minnesota, unlike Atlanta, disappointed last season, taking several steps backward after earning a playoff spot in 2017. The Twins are in a division that may be there for the taking, though, so the right moves this offseason could make the team serious AL Central contenders next year. In Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (who missed all of last season), the Twins already have four established starters under control for next season. However, they’re lacking another proven hurler along the lines of Gray, who’d seemingly slot in ahead of the likes of Fernando Romero, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves – a trio which has combined for 203 innings and 40 starts in the majors.

Yankees Notes: Gray, A’s, Machado, Relievers, Extensions

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Although the Athletics contacted the Yankees about right-hander Sonny Gray at least a week ago, “there is no present momentum in talks” between the teams, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. A return to Oakland would represent a homecoming of sorts for Gray, a 2011 first-round pick of the A’s who mostly thrived with the club from 2013-17. The A’s dealt Gray to the Yankees in July 2017 for a bounty of prospects, but he has since looked like a poor fit in the Bronx, leading general manager Brian Cashman to concede that “it’s probably best” for the Bombers to move the 29-year-old this winter. Gray’s down to his final season of team control, in which he’ll earn a projected $9.1MM. Even for a low-budget team like Oakland, $9MM-plus for Gray doesn’t look like an unreasonable figure. Gray pitched like a front-end starter away from Yankee Stadium last year, after all, so he could boost an A’s rotation which is clearly in need of help.

More on the Yanks, all of which comes via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

  • Infielder Manny Machado infamously told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic last month that being “Johnny Hustle” isn’t his “cup of tea.” Considering he was then on the brink of a much-anticipated, highly lucrative trip to free agency, Machado’s remarks came at an inopportune time. And now that Machado is on the open market – where he still figures to rake in a historic payday – Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner addressed the superstar’s comments this week, calling them “troubling” and noting that the club would need to discuss them with the 26-year-old as part of a serious pursuit. To this point, though, the Yankees and Machado haven’t set up a meeting, Cashman revealed Thursday. The executive added that the Yankees have used past meetings with free agents to “educate people about who we are and where we want to go and get a feel back if there’s an alignment there, if that player can fit in our culture and our New York environment or not. There’s times I’ve walked away refreshingly, feeling strongly about, ’I’m glad he was so candid because this is not going to be a good fit.'”
  • The Yankees are at risk of losing high-profile relievers David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency, though they have spoken to both hurlers about re-signing, Cashman said. The 33-year-old Robertson, a Rhode Island resident, would like to pitch for a team in the Northeast, according to Cashman.  “Does he want to come back? Yeah, but he said the same thing to me that he said to the public — he’s got to do what is in the best interests of his family,” Cashman said of Robertson, who’s acting as his own agent. “He’s looking for the best deal he can get. He must have already went to agent school; that’s normally the first thing you hear. There must be a playbook.”
  • Free agency and the trade market are likely the primary concerns for the Yankees right now, but they’ll also consider offseason extensions for some of their current players, per Cashman. Three of their top contributors – center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – are each scheduled to become free agents a year from now, but perhaps the Yankees will prevent one or more of them from reaching the market. “Is it something that’s on the list of things to talk to and walk through and get to? Yes,” Cashman stated in regard to potential extensions for the trio. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it’s now or never? Yeah, we have.”

Pitching Market Rumors: Gray, Corbin, Anibal, Keuchel, Parker

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The Yankees have received multiple offers for right-hander Sonny Gray and are currently in the process of evaluating them, per SNY’s Andy Martino. GM Brian Cashman has been unusually candid about his plan to move the obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and interest in buying low on the talented righty has reportedly been robust. Gray, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility next year, pitched quite well away from Yankee Stadium and maintained his velocity and ability to miss bats. But he was frequently shelled in the Bronx and ultimately lost his rotation spot late in the season. The Reds are among the teams who’ve been prominently connected to Gray recently, though it stands to reason that upwards of half the league could have interest given his track record.

More rumblings on the market for pitching and bullpen help…

  • The Phillies have been primarily connected to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in free agency, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Phils are also eyeing left-hander Patrick Corbin. Philadelphia has substantial payroll flexibility and a sense of urgency on the heels of a late 2018 collapse, but they’ll surely face quite a bit of competition in a pursuit of Corbin. The Yankees and Nationals, too, have shown early interest in Corbin.
  • Morosi also notes within that column that the Brewers are exploring the market for rotation help and have shown some preliminary interest in righty Anibal Sanchez. The 34-year-old parlayed a minor league deal with the Braves into an absolutely brilliant rebound campaign that landed him 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Beyond a 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 134 1/3 innings, Sanchez also allowed the least hard contact of any pitcher in the game, per Statcast.
  • Speaking of generating weak contact, that skill will be at the forefront of agent Scott Boras’ pitch to teams when marketing lefty Dallas Keuchel, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Boras, speaking to Rosenthal, tabbed Keuchel as the “soft-contact genius of his era” — and though the title is dripping with characteristic Boras hyperbole, it’s also underscored by truth. As Rosenthal points out, Keuchel leads the Majors in soft-contact rate (26.9 percent) since his big league debut. Boras notes that Keuchel’s age-26 through age-30 seasons stack up comparably with those of Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine as well — another semi-outlandish but also factual claim that’ll no doubt be in his pitch to owners and top-ranking baseball ops executives.
  • Rosenthal also reports that while the Angels are looking to add to both the bullpen and the rotation, it’s also possible they’ll listen to offers on right-hander Blake Parker. The 33-year-old Parker has been terrific find for GM Billy Eppler, pitching to a 2.90 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 22 saves in 133 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in December 2016. Parker is arbitration-eligible this winter and projected to earn $3.1MM and is controllable through the 2020 season.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.

AL Notes: Altuve, Merrifield, Brantley, Gray

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Jose Altuve provided an update on his rehabilitation from knee surgery, telling MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he’s “not doing a lot” in the early stages of his recovery process, though “the only thing they told me is we’re going to be 120 percent for the first day of Spring Training, and that’s what really matters.”  Altuve underwent the procedure shortly after the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS, after playing through the injury for much of the second half of the season.  More will be known later in Altuve’s rehab process, though for now, it doesn’t seem like the surgery will keep Altuve from being ready to go for next season.

Here’s more from around the American League…

  • Whit Merrifield is arguably the Royals’ biggest trade chip, though the team’s lack of interest in dealing him is indicative of GM Dayton Moore’s unique team-building process, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes.  On paper, a player who turns 30 in January doesn’t have much long-term value to a Royals team that has 2021 as its internal start date to once again be competitive.  Moore, however, has spoken openly about how disappointing the 2018 season was for the Royals, and he has been hesitant to enter into a full rebuild.  As Mellinger puts it, “holding onto Merrifield serves several purposes simultaneously: projects hope and confidence to players and fans, helps maintain culture of professionalism in the clubhouse, creates the best possible team for 2019, provides time to see what might be needed in a few years, and retains the ability to trade a presumably still valuable asset next summer or winter.”
  • “There is nearly a zero chance Michael Brantley will return to the” Indians in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  A reunion between the two sides seemed pretty unlikely, as Brantley’s strong 2018 season has put him in line for a lucrative free agent contract.  This made him an imperfect fit to return to the Tribe’s outfield, as Cleveland may be exploring ways to cut some veterans from the payroll while still looking to contend again next season.
  • Three evaluators from rival teams shared their thoughts on Sonny Gray with George A. King III of the New York Post, noting that the Yankees right-hander still has some solid trade value despite a rough season in the Bronx.  “I think he [has value] because with the way starting pitching is right now, you look at him as a reclamation project.  There has to be value with what starting pitching has become,” one evaluator for an AL rival said.  Between Gray’s good numbers away from Yankee Stadium, his past track record, youth, and one remaining year of arbitration control (at a $9.1MM salary, as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz), it isn’t surprising that at least five teams have reportedly called the Yankees about Gray’s services.

Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

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With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

  • Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
  • There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
  • So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
  • Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
  • We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.

Yankees Interested In Re-Signing CC Sabathia; Sonny Gray Drawing Trade Interest

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters today and expressed a desire to re-sign lefty CC Sabathia while also adding that “a lot” of teams have reached out to express trade interest in Sonny Gray (Twitter links via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand).

Despite the fact that Cashman has all but admitted he expects to trade Gray, rotation stability will be an area of focus for the Yankees’ front office this winter. With Sabathia and J.A. Happ hitting the open market, Jordan Montgomery out early in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and Gray likely to be moved, the only experienced arms slotted into New York’s 2019 rotation are Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. There’s plenty of internal depth in the form of Justus Sheffield, Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Chance Adams, among others, but a team with division title aspirations and the Yankees’ payroll capacity is likely to bolster that group in notable fashion.

[Related: New York Yankees depth chart]

The 38-year-old Sabathia, presumably, wouldn’t be viewed as more than a back-of-the-rotation option. However, he’s been an integral part of the team for the past decade and, despite his age and ongoing knee issues, he enjoyed a very solid 2018 season. In 153 innings (29 starts), the veteran Sabathia worked to a 3.65 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike and chase rates were the best they’d been since 2012, and his fastball velocity still checked in a bit north of 90 mph — roughly in line with his past four seasons.

Sabathia has already indicated that he hopes to continue pitching in 2019, though his recent success and what figures to be a relatively reasonable price tag could lead to interest elsewhere. While Sabathia is surely open to a reunion with the Yankees, he suggested back in September that he planned to continue pitching even if it meant signing elsewhere (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Marc Carig). The Vallejo, Calif. native did draw interest from the Angels last winter, and speculatively speaking, he’d have plenty of options on the West Coast if he wished to play closer to home.

As for Gray, the right-hander was shelled more often than not when pitching at Yankee Stadium in 2018 but thrived on the road, so it’s not surprising to see numerous clubs expressing interest. Gray’s fastball velocity held strong in 2018, and his swinging-strike rate (10.1 percent) was right in line with that of a league-average starter. Gray’s ground-ball, strikeout and home-run rates were all sharp, as well. The Yankees seemingly altered his pitch selection without much success in ’18, as he threw fewer four-seamers and more curves and two-seamers than ever before.

It’s easy to see why several clubs in larger parks would carry interest — especially if they believe that a return to a more traditional pitch mix for Gray would help him inch toward his peak form. He’s something of a pricey roll of the dice, depending on the interested party, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gray to earn $9.1MM in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. But Gray’s track record, home/road splits and some solid peripheral metrics place him among the game’s more intriguing buy-low pieces this offseason.

Yankees Will Shop Sonny Gray This Offseason

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Sonny Gray’s tenure with the Yankees hasn’t panned out nearly as well as the organization had hoped, and general manager Brian Cashman candidly told reporters Friday that he plans to explore trade scenarios this offseason (Twitter link via Newsday’s David Lennon). “We’re entering the winter open-minded to relocation,” Cashman said of Gray. “…It’s probably best to try somewhere else.”

It’s highly atypical to see a baseball executive display that level of candor when discussing a potential trade of a player, but the writing has been on the wall for quite some time now. Gray was dropped from the team’s rotation amid considerable struggles this summer, and the Yankees didn’t carry him on their postseason roster.

Acquired in a high-profile trade that sent Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian to the Athletics in July 2017, Gray gave the Yankees 65 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA ball down the stretch that season. He was far more homer-prone than he’d been in Oakland — perhaps to be expected given the radical shift in his home park — but the 2018 season was an ugly one for Gray. In 130 1/3 innings this season, he posted a 4.90 ERA with a career-worst 3.94 BB/9 mark and a career-high eight hit batters.

To his credit, Gray notched an 8.49 K/9 mark, maintained the velocity on his fastball (93.3 mph average), generated a solid 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate and induced grounders at a characteristically strong 50 percent clip. Nearly all of his struggles were confined to pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he turned in a ghastly 6.98 ERA and allowed 11 home runs in 59 1/3 innings. When pitching away from the Bronx, Gray logged a strong 3.17 ERA and yielded just three homers in 71 innings of work.

That home/road disparity, paired with Gray’s track record and relative youth — he’ll turn 29 in November — should make him a popular buy-low candidate for teams looking to supplement their rotation. He’s only controlled for one more season and comes with a projected arbitration salary of $9.1MM (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, Gray entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA and peripheral stats that largely backed up that mark. The former No. 18 overall draft pick was an All-Star in 2015 and finished third in American League Cy Young voting that season when he tossed 208 innings (his second consecutive 200-inning season) with a 2.73 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He dealt with shoulder and forearm issues in 2016-17 but has avoided the disabled list in his time with the Yankees.

Yankees Move Sonny Gray To Bullpen

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The Yankees have informed right-hander Sonny Gray that he’ll be moved from the rotation to the bullpen, tweets Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network. Gray has taken the demotion in stride, it seems. “I’ve struggled and they’ve given me ample opportunity to figure it out,” the righty said (via Marakovits on Twitter). “I continued to grind … I’m going to go to the pen and continue to try to figure it out.”

It’s a disappointing outcome not only for Gray himself but for a Yankees organization that parted with three promising young players to acquire the right-hander from Oakland in July 2017. The Yankees sent outfielder Dustin Fowler, shortstop Jorge Mateo and right-hander James Kaprielian to the A’s in order to acquire the final two and a half seasons of club control over Gray.

[Related: Updated New York Yankees depth chart]

The 28-year-old Gray pitched fairly well for the Yankees last season, logging a 3.72 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings for New York during regular season play. He was hit hard in an ALDS start against the Indians but gave the Yankees a strong five-inning outing against the Astros in the ALCS (one earned run on one hit and a pair of walks with four strikeouts).

The 2018 season, though, has been an unmitigated disaster for Gray. Through 21 starts and 103 2/3 innings, he’s limped to a 5.56 ERA. While he’s still averaging 8.6 K/9 and has cut back on the home runs (1.13 HR/9), Gray’s walk rate is elevated substantially (3.1 BB/9 in 2017, 4.0 in 2018). Last year’s 28 percent hard-contact rate is a distant memory for Gray, as that number has jumped to 36.2 percent in 2018.

There was some speculation that the Yankees could look to trade Gray prior to the non-waiver deadline. Because most of the damage against him has come at Yankee Stadium (7.71 ERA, 10 homers allowed at home; 3.62 ERA, three homers allowed on the road), many viewed him as a potential change of scenery candidate. That said, there’s some reason to believe that a move to the ’pen could prove quite beneficial for Gray as well. Opponents have batted .250/.319/.424 when facing him for the first time in a game; those numbers soar to .319/.393/.478 the second time through the order.

While the move to the ’pen could serve as a temporary solution for the Yankees, it’s still fair to wonder about Gray’s long-term future in the organization. He’s earning $6.5MM in 2018 and is controlled through the 2020 season, though even with his ugly results this year, he’d still be in line for a modest raise through the arbitration process. While the Yankees can certainly afford to pay him $7MM+, it’s possible that his struggles in the Bronx could make him a trade candidate or even a non-tender candidate in the offseason if he’s unable to right the ship and put together a strong finish to the season.

For now, Gray will work out of the ’pen while the Yankees rely on Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and new acquisitions Lance Lynn (picked up in a trade with the Twins) and J.A. Happ (once Happ returns from the disabled list due to a bizarre bout of hand, foot and mouth disease).

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