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Nationals Select Andrés Machado, Transfer Víctor Robles To 60-Day IL

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The Nationals announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Andrés Machado, with righty Amos Willingham optioned to Triple-A Rochester in a corresponding move. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Machado, outfielder Víctor Robles was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Machado, 30, has been with the Nats since 2021, though he was outrighted off their roster in the offseason. He got added back at the end of April but was clobbered for 16 earned runs in 17 innings, leading to an ERA of 8.47. Having burned all his option years, he was outrighted off their roster again in June and had the right to reject that assignment since it was his second, though he decided to accept and stay in the organization.

Since returning to Rochester, he has thrown 16 1/3 innings with a 4.96 ERA, but with strong peripherals. He’s stuck out 27.9% of batters faced while walking 4.4% of them. A .349 batting average on balls in play and 56.1% strand rate may have pushed some extra runs across, as his FIP is a much more palatable 2.98. That’ll seemingly get him another shot in the Nats bullpen, which is one of the worst in the league. Their collective 5.47 ERA is almost the worst in the majors, just barely better than Oakland’s 5.49. It’s also possible that Kyle Finnegan ends up traded in the next week, since he has garnered some interest.

As for Robles, he was placed on the 10-day IL on June 21 due to back spasms in the lumbar spine, his second IL stint for that issue this year. It seems the club doesn’t expect him back soon, as he’ll now be ineligible to return until mid-August. Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relayed this week that Robles is staying in D.C. for the foreseeable future to do rehab work around the big league club.

It’s another frustrating development for the former top prospect, who has always had speed and defense to offer but generally struggled at the plate. He had hit .233/.306/.359 in his career coming into this season but seemed to show positive strides here in 2023. He has a stronger line of .299/.385/.364 this year while significantly cutting his strikeouts, but the back spasms have limited that to just 36 games.

Robles will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration this offseason, though might not be able to get much of a raise beyond this year’s $2.325MM salary based on all his missed time. He might have been a trade candidate this summer if he were healthy but that’s unfortunately not the case. Players on the IL can be traded but it’s unlikely the interest is high right now, based on his uncertain health status.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

____________________________

The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

Nationals Select Derek Hill, Place Victor Robles On Injured List

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The Nationals have selected the contract of outfielder Derek Hill from Triple-A Rochester, per a team announcement. In a corresponding 26-man roster move, center fielder Victor Robles was placed on the 10-day IL due to lower back spasms. Washington already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move was not necessary in that regard. MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco noted prior to the announcement that Hill was in the Nationals’ clubhouse.

Hill 27, was the No. 23 overall pick by the Tigers back in the 2014 draft but has yet to deliver on that draft status and several years ranking among Detroit’s top farmhands. He spent parts of three big league seasons with the Tigers, appearing in 95 games and taking 254 plate appearances from 2020-22. The resulting .240/.291/.339 slash line was underwhelming and ultimately led to a DFA for Hill just prior to last summer’s trade deadline. The Mariners claimed him a few days later but outrighted him off the 40-man roster in October. Hill elected minor league free agency and caught on with the Nats.

It’s been a brilliant start to the season for Hill up in Rochester, where he’s turned in a .324/.381/.533 batting line with eight homers, 10 doubles, a pair of triples and 10 steals (in 11 tries). His 7.8% walk rate is a bit below average, but his 21.6% strikeout rate is also slightly lower than that of an average big league hitter. It’s Hill’s third season with time spent at the Triple-A level, and he now carries a .283/.344/.470 batting line at that level in an even 600 plate appearances. Hill is out of minor league options, so the Nats can’t send him back down unless they first designate him for assignment and pass him through outright waivers.

Robles, 26, will head to the injured list in the midst of his best showing since a 21-game cup of coffee with the Nats back in 2018. The longtime top prospect is hitting .299/.385/.364 in 126 plate appearances this season, with the uptick in production largely attributable to a career-low 14.3% strikeout rate. Robles’ 8.7% walk rate is also the second-highest mark he’s posted since his 2017 MLB debut and a far sight better than the career 5.9% mark he carried into the current season.

The Nationals haven’t yet provided a timetable for Robles’ return, but Hill figures to see plenty of time in center field while Robles is out. Hill is in the lineup hitting eighth and playing center this afternoon. Lane Thomas and Alex Call are the only other outfielders to log any innings in center this season, but Call is currently in Triple-A Rochester and Thomas has just 11 innings there.

Nationals To Place Victor Robles On 10-Day Injured List

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6:52PM: Nats manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that Robles was indeed heading to the 10-day IL with back spasms, and that Alu was being called up as the roster replacement.

5:38PM: Victor Robles suffered a back injury while trying to steal second base in the third inning of Saturday’s game, which led to Robles’ removal from the game.  The Nationals didn’t include Robles in today’s lineup, and it now appears a longer absence is in store, as Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that Robles is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list.

Utilityman Jake Alu is expected to be called up from Triple-A Rochester to replace Robles on the active roster, as Alu is on his way to join the Nationals for the start of their series in San Francisco on Monday.  The 26-year-old Alu is already on the Nationals’ 40-man roster, as D.C. added him back in November in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.

It’s an unfortunate setback for Robles, whose solid start has now been interrupted by injury.  Robles is hitting .292/.388/.360 over his first 107 plate appearances, with eight steals in nine chances.  Robles’ 113 wRC+ marks his highest total since the 2018 season, though naturally both a small sample size and some battled-ball luck (a .347 BABIP) might indicate that some regression is coming.  Still, Robles’ speed allows him to turn some of those borderline balls in play into hits, and he has considerably improved both his walk and strikeout rates.  After a 23.9% strikeout rate in his first six MLB seasons, Robles has a 13.1 K% in 2023, ranking in the 90th percentile of all batters.

On the flip side, Robles’ once-elite defense has taken a notable step back.  Over just 258 innings in center field, Robles already has -8 Defensive Runs Saved as well as -2 Outs Above Average and a -15.8 UZR/150.  This would certainly give rival teams pause in considering Robles as a trade deadline pickup, since the rebuilding Nationals will likely be open for business on any veteran player.  Robles signed a short-term contract extension in February that gave the Nats a $3.3MM club option on his services for 2024, though Washington has arbitration control over Robles even if the option is declined.  This bit of extra control could be an interesting factor in any trade talks, but naturally the first order of business is to get Robles healed up and back in the Nats’ lineup.

Though Alex Call and Lane Thomas have gotten the bulk of starts as Washington’s corner outfielders, Call and Thomas are the likeliest candidates to step into center field duty with Robles sidelined.  This could open up more playing time for Stone Garrett and Ildemaro Vargas in the outfield, and Alu will likely also get some looks during his first taste of Major League action.

A 24th-round pick for the Nationals in the 2019 draft, Alu posted quality numbers in 2021-22, and MLB Pipeline ranked him 27th on their list of the Nats’ top 30 prospects, Alu began this year on the injured list with a knee injury and doesn’t seem to have really gotten on track, with only a .240/.318/.333 slash line in 86 PA with Triple-A Rochester.

However, Alu’s multi-positional versatility might be more important than his bat in the Nationals’ view, with Robles out of action and Jeimer Candelario also missing a pair of games due to dehydration.  Alu has played mostly third base this season and might chip in at the hot corner if Candelario needs more recovery time, but Alu has also seen a lot of time as a second baseman and a handful of minor league games as a left fielder and first baseman.

Speaking of third base, the Nationals announced that Carter Kieboom was reinstated from the 10-day injured list and returned from his rehab assignment, then optioned to Triple-A.  The former top prospect hit only .197/.304/.285 over 414 plate appearances with the Nats from 2019-21, but he missed all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.  A shoulder injury then set Kieboom back during Spring Training, resulting in his season-opening IL stint.  Kieboom has played in only three Double-A games during his rehab assignment, so Washington will give him a longer ramp-up time in Rochester before considering a return to the big league roster.

Nationals, Victor Robles Avoid Arbitration

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5:20pm: The Associated Press reports that Robles will make $2.325MM this year with next year’s club option valued at $3.3MM. There’s no buyout on the option.

1:30pm: The Nationals announced that they have avoided arbitration with Victor Robles by agreeing to a one-year contract for 2023 plus a club option for 2024. The financial terms were not disclosed, but this will give the club cost certainty for the second of his three arbitration years and an option for his third. This deal won’t alter the club’s length of control over his services. Even if they were to turn down the option for 2024, they could still retain Robles by going through the arbitration process again next offseason.

Robles, 26 in May, was once one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America ranking him as high as #5 in 2018. He got his first extended stretch of major league playing time in 2019, hitting 17 home runs on the way to a .255/.326/.419 batting line. Since that was the “juiced ball” season where offense was up all around the league, that production actually led to a wRC+ of just 92, indicating he was 8% below league average at the plate. Nonetheless, he stole 28 bases and was given strong grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 3.5 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

That was just his age-22 season and it seemed fair to expect even better days ahead. Unfortunately, his offense has taken a big step backward since that time. In the past three seasons, Robles has hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He has still been graded well in the field and swiped 27 bags in that time, but the lack of offense has subtracted any value created in other areas, with FanGraphs ranking his work in that stretch as exactly replacement level.

Robles qualified for arbitration for the first time a year ago and earned a salary of $1.65MM in 2022. For his second trip through the process, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Robles for a raise to $2.5MM. He and the club didn’t agree to a 2023 salary prior to the filing deadline in January, with Robles submitting a $2.6MM figure and the club at $2.3MM. Instead of going to a hearing for that small gap, they have now agreed to a deal, though the details still haven’t emerged.

The Nats have leaned hard into a rebuild over the past couple of seasons, trading away just about every established player of value, including Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and more. Robles has stuck around, likely because his extended run of poor performance has burned up any trade value he once had. But for the Nats, there’s little harm in continuing to run him out there and hoping for a bounceback.

Robles could potentially be the club’s everyday center fielder this year, though it remains to be seen how much leeway he’ll get if his offense doesn’t improve. Lane Thomas will likely be next to him in a corner role but has the potential to play up the middle. Other options for the outfield spots include Corey Dickerson, Joey Meneses, Alex Call and Stone Garrett. This deal now closes the book on the club’s arbitration class, as Robles was the last one without a deal worked out for this season.

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles

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7:26PM: Robles and the Nationals agreed to a one-year, $1.65MM deal, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

3:21PM: The Nationals agreed to a 2022 contract with outfielder Victor Robles, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (Twitter link).  The deal allows both sides to avoid an arbitration hearing, as an agreement wasn’t reached prior to the deadline for submitting arb figures.  Robles was seeking a $2.1MM salary, while the Nats countered with a $1.6MM offer.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Robles for a $1.7MM deal.

This is Robles’ first time through the arbitration process, and he is on pace to hit free agency following the 2024 season.  In the near term, however, 2022 looms as a critical year for Robles to re-establish himself as a key part of Washington’s future plans.  Since emerging as an everyday member of the Nats’ 2019 World Series club, Robles has hit only .209/.304/.302 in 558 plate appearances in 2020-21.

Once considered one of the elite prospects in all of baseball, Robles now has only a somewhat tenuous hold on a starting job.  Robles is still penciled into the center field job, though some defensive metrics have painted a sour picture of his glovework following his all-world defensive numbers in 2019.

With Robles’ deal now settled, the Nationals have worked out contracts with every member of their 2021-22 arbitration class.  For more on settled and still-pending arbitration situations, check out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Make Or Break Year: Victor Robles

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Emerging as an everyday player in 2019, Victor Robles hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for the Nationals — below-average (92 wRC+, 91 OPS+) by a league-wide standard but quite respectable for a player in his age-22 season.  Robles also stole 28 bases in 37 chances, and was exceptional over 1199 innings in center field, posting +23 Defensive Runs Saved, +22 Outs Above Average, and +6.1 UZR/150.

Since Robles was a key figure in the Nats’ World Series triumph, his place in Washington baseball history is in some ways already secured.  However, with two lackluster seasons since that seeming breakout year, the jury is still out on whether or not Robles is still a cornerstone piece for the Nationals in the future.

In a sense, the Nationals’ larger struggles give Robles some extra leeway.  After consecutive last-place finishes and a trade deadline fire sale of many of their veterans, it isn’t yet clear if the Nationals are planning to return to contention in 2022, or if the club will take another year to reload.  Washington didn’t do much in the way of big transactions pre-lockout, and much of the team’s winter focus has been on making new staffing hires on the coaching and player development fronts throughout the organization.

Even if 2022 is more of an evaluation year in the District, there’s still natural pressure on Robles to perform.  His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022, his first season of arbitration eligibility.  If Robles again doesn’t hit next year but continues to play good defense, the Nationals probably wouldn’t be moved to non-tender him since he’d still have a pretty inexpensive price tag, even for a fourth outfielder type.  (Caveat: it is possible the arbitration process could be altered in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)

Becoming “only” a fourth outfielder would have to count as a bit of a disappointment for a player with Robles’ prospect pedigree.  It wasn’t long ago that Robles was a consensus pick as one of baseball’s best minor leaguers, as scouts and evaluators thought even more highly of Robles than they did Juan Soto when the two were coming up in Washington’s farm system.

However, the hitting potential that Robles displayed in the minors and in the 2018-19 seasons seemed to vanish over the last two big league seasons.  Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Robles has hit .209/.304/.302 with five homers over 558 PA, translating to a measly 67 wRC+ and 68 OPS+.  The biggest issue has been a lack of hard contact, as Robles has some of the worst hard-hit ball numbers of any player in baseball over the last three seasons.  Robles also has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate did improve to a slightly above-average 8.9% in 2021.

Even beyond the struggles at the plate, Robles has 12 steals in 21 chances in 2020-21, and he was a below-average runner in general according to Fangraphs’ baserunning metric.  Even the glovework has been in decline, as over his last 1215 innings in center field, Robles has a -4 DRS, and -3.3 UZR/150, though his OAA total is still +3.

Robles’ decision to add 15 pounds in the 2019-20 offseason may have contributed to all of these problems, as his attempt to help boost his power had a deleterious effect on basically every aspect of his game.  Robles cut that weight prior to last year’s Spring Training, yet the difficulties continued over the 2021 season.  The Nationals even took the step of demoting Robles to Triple-A for the final month of the season, though since Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester, there is hope that his return trip to the minors might have helped him regain some confidence.

Heading into 2022, Robles still ostensibly Washington’s top option in center field, though Lane Thomas now looms as a possible replacement.  Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas broke out to hit .270/.364/.489 over 206 PA with the Nats, and positioned himself for an everyday role in the D.C. outfield.  Thomas is likely a better defensive fit as a left fielder than as a center fielder, but he is at least good enough up the middle to take over the position if Robles is unable to get on track.

Andrew Stevenson, Yadiel Hernandez and minor league signing Rusney Castillo are also in the mix to vie for outfield playing time, plus Robles’ immediate future may also be impacted by whatever the Nationals have planned for their post-lockout moves.  Even if the Nats aren’t planning to contend, that doesn’t mean they might not add a veteran or two on one-year contracts, with an eye towards potentially flipping those veterans at the trade deadline.

It also worth stressing that Robles doesn’t even turn 25 years old until May, so it’s possible his prime years may still be well ahead of him.  If the Nationals’ step back meant they didn’t have to a tough decision on Robles this winter, however, that decision may get a little tougher if Robles still hasn’t shown any improvement during the 2022 season.  If Robles can at least approach his 2019 form, that will provide at least one answer for the Nationals within this period of uncertainty for the franchise.

Nationals Option Victor Robles

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The Nationals announced they’ve optioned center fielder Víctor Robles to Triple-A Rochester. Fellow outfielder Andrew Stevenson has been recalled in his place.

It’s the culmination of back-to-back poor seasons for Robles, who finds himself in the minors for the first time since 2018. Robles has more or less been Washington’s everyday center fielder over the past three seasons, a role he’s been expected to hold for years. A one-time top prospect, Robles seized the center field job during the Nats’ World Series winning 2019 campaign. While he was a slightly below-average hitter that year, Robles rated as one of the league’s best baserunners and defensive outfielders. Only 22 years old, he looked to be a core piece who could emerge as an All-Star caliber player with just a bit of an improvement at the plate over the coming seasons.

Not only has Robles not taken another step offensively, he’s completely fallen flat at the plate. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has posted a .209/.304/.302 line over 558 plate appearances. That translates to a 67 wRC+ that suggests Robles has been 33 percentage points worse than the league average hitter. Of the 181 hitters with 500+ plate appearances over the past two years, only four (Kevin Newman, Elvis Andrus, Gregory Polanco and Garrett Hampson) have been less productive at the plate.

Those struggles have cost Robles playing time in recent days, as he hadn’t started a game since Friday. Lane Thomas, acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, has started the past three games in center and is in the lineup there again tonight. With Robles relegated to fourth outfielder duty at the big league level, the Nationals have evidently determined it better to get him continued reps against minor league pitching.

The Nationals could bring Robles back up relatively shortly, as position players only need be on optional assignment for ten days before they’re eligible to be recalled. (They can be brought up within ten days if recalled to replace an injured player). However, the timing of the demotion could suggest they’re prepared to leave Robles in the minors for additional experience. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 players starting tomorrow, so the Nats weren’t under immediate pressure to make a move from a roster limit perspective. Instead, it seems the team has decided an optional assignment to be the more prudent course of action for Robles’ long-term development.

Even if Robles doesn’t return to the majors this season, the demotion shouldn’t have an effect on his service time outlook. He entered the season with 2.052 years of big league time and has already accrued around 152 days of service this season. That’s more than enough to push him beyond the three-year threshold as had been anticipated. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is still ticketed to reach free agency over the 2024-25 offseason — assuming he begins next year on Washington’s active roster.

Nationals Reinstate Victor Robles From 10-Day IL

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Victor Robles is returning to the Nationals lineup, as the team announced that the outfielder has been activated from the 10-day injured list.  Infielder Luis Garcia was optioned to Triple-A yesterday to create room on the 26-man active roster.

Robles hasn’t played since May 19 (also his 24th birthday) due to a right ankle sprain.  Looking to bounce back from a 2020 season that was disappointing both offensively and defensively, Robles got off to a very slow start but was hitting better in the few games immediately prior to his ankle injury — over 133 PA, Robles is hitting .246/.348/.325.  His glovework has rebounded more strongly, as Robles has a +7.6 UZR/150 and +4 Defensive Runs Saved over 300 1/3 innings in center field.

With Robles back, Washington is more or less finally healthy on the position-player side for the first time all season, due to regular injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak at the beginning of the season.  The Nationals will need all the help they can get as they look to recover from a 21-28 start that has sent them to the NL East basement.

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