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Nationals To Place Victor Robles On 10-Day Injured List

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6:52PM: Nats manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that Robles was indeed heading to the 10-day IL with back spasms, and that Alu was being called up as the roster replacement.

5:38PM: Victor Robles suffered a back injury while trying to steal second base in the third inning of Saturday’s game, which led to Robles’ removal from the game.  The Nationals didn’t include Robles in today’s lineup, and it now appears a longer absence is in store, as Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that Robles is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list.

Utilityman Jake Alu is expected to be called up from Triple-A Rochester to replace Robles on the active roster, as Alu is on his way to join the Nationals for the start of their series in San Francisco on Monday.  The 26-year-old Alu is already on the Nationals’ 40-man roster, as D.C. added him back in November in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.

It’s an unfortunate setback for Robles, whose solid start has now been interrupted by injury.  Robles is hitting .292/.388/.360 over his first 107 plate appearances, with eight steals in nine chances.  Robles’ 113 wRC+ marks his highest total since the 2018 season, though naturally both a small sample size and some battled-ball luck (a .347 BABIP) might indicate that some regression is coming.  Still, Robles’ speed allows him to turn some of those borderline balls in play into hits, and he has considerably improved both his walk and strikeout rates.  After a 23.9% strikeout rate in his first six MLB seasons, Robles has a 13.1 K% in 2023, ranking in the 90th percentile of all batters.

On the flip side, Robles’ once-elite defense has taken a notable step back.  Over just 258 innings in center field, Robles already has -8 Defensive Runs Saved as well as -2 Outs Above Average and a -15.8 UZR/150.  This would certainly give rival teams pause in considering Robles as a trade deadline pickup, since the rebuilding Nationals will likely be open for business on any veteran player.  Robles signed a short-term contract extension in February that gave the Nats a $3.3MM club option on his services for 2024, though Washington has arbitration control over Robles even if the option is declined.  This bit of extra control could be an interesting factor in any trade talks, but naturally the first order of business is to get Robles healed up and back in the Nats’ lineup.

Though Alex Call and Lane Thomas have gotten the bulk of starts as Washington’s corner outfielders, Call and Thomas are the likeliest candidates to step into center field duty with Robles sidelined.  This could open up more playing time for Stone Garrett and Ildemaro Vargas in the outfield, and Alu will likely also get some looks during his first taste of Major League action.

A 24th-round pick for the Nationals in the 2019 draft, Alu posted quality numbers in 2021-22, and MLB Pipeline ranked him 27th on their list of the Nats’ top 30 prospects, Alu began this year on the injured list with a knee injury and doesn’t seem to have really gotten on track, with only a .240/.318/.333 slash line in 86 PA with Triple-A Rochester.

However, Alu’s multi-positional versatility might be more important than his bat in the Nationals’ view, with Robles out of action and Jeimer Candelario also missing a pair of games due to dehydration.  Alu has played mostly third base this season and might chip in at the hot corner if Candelario needs more recovery time, but Alu has also seen a lot of time as a second baseman and a handful of minor league games as a left fielder and first baseman.

Speaking of third base, the Nationals announced that Carter Kieboom was reinstated from the 10-day injured list and returned from his rehab assignment, then optioned to Triple-A.  The former top prospect hit only .197/.304/.285 over 414 plate appearances with the Nats from 2019-21, but he missed all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.  A shoulder injury then set Kieboom back during Spring Training, resulting in his season-opening IL stint.  Kieboom has played in only three Double-A games during his rehab assignment, so Washington will give him a longer ramp-up time in Rochester before considering a return to the big league roster.

Nationals, Victor Robles Avoid Arbitration

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5:20pm: The Associated Press reports that Robles will make $2.325MM this year with next year’s club option valued at $3.3MM. There’s no buyout on the option.

1:30pm: The Nationals announced that they have avoided arbitration with Victor Robles by agreeing to a one-year contract for 2023 plus a club option for 2024. The financial terms were not disclosed, but this will give the club cost certainty for the second of his three arbitration years and an option for his third. This deal won’t alter the club’s length of control over his services. Even if they were to turn down the option for 2024, they could still retain Robles by going through the arbitration process again next offseason.

Robles, 26 in May, was once one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America ranking him as high as #5 in 2018. He got his first extended stretch of major league playing time in 2019, hitting 17 home runs on the way to a .255/.326/.419 batting line. Since that was the “juiced ball” season where offense was up all around the league, that production actually led to a wRC+ of just 92, indicating he was 8% below league average at the plate. Nonetheless, he stole 28 bases and was given strong grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 3.5 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

That was just his age-22 season and it seemed fair to expect even better days ahead. Unfortunately, his offense has taken a big step backward since that time. In the past three seasons, Robles has hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He has still been graded well in the field and swiped 27 bags in that time, but the lack of offense has subtracted any value created in other areas, with FanGraphs ranking his work in that stretch as exactly replacement level.

Robles qualified for arbitration for the first time a year ago and earned a salary of $1.65MM in 2022. For his second trip through the process, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Robles for a raise to $2.5MM. He and the club didn’t agree to a 2023 salary prior to the filing deadline in January, with Robles submitting a $2.6MM figure and the club at $2.3MM. Instead of going to a hearing for that small gap, they have now agreed to a deal, though the details still haven’t emerged.

The Nats have leaned hard into a rebuild over the past couple of seasons, trading away just about every established player of value, including Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and more. Robles has stuck around, likely because his extended run of poor performance has burned up any trade value he once had. But for the Nats, there’s little harm in continuing to run him out there and hoping for a bounceback.

Robles could potentially be the club’s everyday center fielder this year, though it remains to be seen how much leeway he’ll get if his offense doesn’t improve. Lane Thomas will likely be next to him in a corner role but has the potential to play up the middle. Other options for the outfield spots include Corey Dickerson, Joey Meneses, Alex Call and Stone Garrett. This deal now closes the book on the club’s arbitration class, as Robles was the last one without a deal worked out for this season.

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles

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7:26PM: Robles and the Nationals agreed to a one-year, $1.65MM deal, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

3:21PM: The Nationals agreed to a 2022 contract with outfielder Victor Robles, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (Twitter link).  The deal allows both sides to avoid an arbitration hearing, as an agreement wasn’t reached prior to the deadline for submitting arb figures.  Robles was seeking a $2.1MM salary, while the Nats countered with a $1.6MM offer.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Robles for a $1.7MM deal.

This is Robles’ first time through the arbitration process, and he is on pace to hit free agency following the 2024 season.  In the near term, however, 2022 looms as a critical year for Robles to re-establish himself as a key part of Washington’s future plans.  Since emerging as an everyday member of the Nats’ 2019 World Series club, Robles has hit only .209/.304/.302 in 558 plate appearances in 2020-21.

Once considered one of the elite prospects in all of baseball, Robles now has only a somewhat tenuous hold on a starting job.  Robles is still penciled into the center field job, though some defensive metrics have painted a sour picture of his glovework following his all-world defensive numbers in 2019.

With Robles’ deal now settled, the Nationals have worked out contracts with every member of their 2021-22 arbitration class.  For more on settled and still-pending arbitration situations, check out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Make Or Break Year: Victor Robles

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Emerging as an everyday player in 2019, Victor Robles hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for the Nationals — below-average (92 wRC+, 91 OPS+) by a league-wide standard but quite respectable for a player in his age-22 season.  Robles also stole 28 bases in 37 chances, and was exceptional over 1199 innings in center field, posting +23 Defensive Runs Saved, +22 Outs Above Average, and +6.1 UZR/150.

Since Robles was a key figure in the Nats’ World Series triumph, his place in Washington baseball history is in some ways already secured.  However, with two lackluster seasons since that seeming breakout year, the jury is still out on whether or not Robles is still a cornerstone piece for the Nationals in the future.

In a sense, the Nationals’ larger struggles give Robles some extra leeway.  After consecutive last-place finishes and a trade deadline fire sale of many of their veterans, it isn’t yet clear if the Nationals are planning to return to contention in 2022, or if the club will take another year to reload.  Washington didn’t do much in the way of big transactions pre-lockout, and much of the team’s winter focus has been on making new staffing hires on the coaching and player development fronts throughout the organization.

Even if 2022 is more of an evaluation year in the District, there’s still natural pressure on Robles to perform.  His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022, his first season of arbitration eligibility.  If Robles again doesn’t hit next year but continues to play good defense, the Nationals probably wouldn’t be moved to non-tender him since he’d still have a pretty inexpensive price tag, even for a fourth outfielder type.  (Caveat: it is possible the arbitration process could be altered in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)

Becoming “only” a fourth outfielder would have to count as a bit of a disappointment for a player with Robles’ prospect pedigree.  It wasn’t long ago that Robles was a consensus pick as one of baseball’s best minor leaguers, as scouts and evaluators thought even more highly of Robles than they did Juan Soto when the two were coming up in Washington’s farm system.

However, the hitting potential that Robles displayed in the minors and in the 2018-19 seasons seemed to vanish over the last two big league seasons.  Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Robles has hit .209/.304/.302 with five homers over 558 PA, translating to a measly 67 wRC+ and 68 OPS+.  The biggest issue has been a lack of hard contact, as Robles has some of the worst hard-hit ball numbers of any player in baseball over the last three seasons.  Robles also has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate did improve to a slightly above-average 8.9% in 2021.

Even beyond the struggles at the plate, Robles has 12 steals in 21 chances in 2020-21, and he was a below-average runner in general according to Fangraphs’ baserunning metric.  Even the glovework has been in decline, as over his last 1215 innings in center field, Robles has a -4 DRS, and -3.3 UZR/150, though his OAA total is still +3.

Robles’ decision to add 15 pounds in the 2019-20 offseason may have contributed to all of these problems, as his attempt to help boost his power had a deleterious effect on basically every aspect of his game.  Robles cut that weight prior to last year’s Spring Training, yet the difficulties continued over the 2021 season.  The Nationals even took the step of demoting Robles to Triple-A for the final month of the season, though since Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester, there is hope that his return trip to the minors might have helped him regain some confidence.

Heading into 2022, Robles still ostensibly Washington’s top option in center field, though Lane Thomas now looms as a possible replacement.  Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas broke out to hit .270/.364/.489 over 206 PA with the Nats, and positioned himself for an everyday role in the D.C. outfield.  Thomas is likely a better defensive fit as a left fielder than as a center fielder, but he is at least good enough up the middle to take over the position if Robles is unable to get on track.

Andrew Stevenson, Yadiel Hernandez and minor league signing Rusney Castillo are also in the mix to vie for outfield playing time, plus Robles’ immediate future may also be impacted by whatever the Nationals have planned for their post-lockout moves.  Even if the Nats aren’t planning to contend, that doesn’t mean they might not add a veteran or two on one-year contracts, with an eye towards potentially flipping those veterans at the trade deadline.

It also worth stressing that Robles doesn’t even turn 25 years old until May, so it’s possible his prime years may still be well ahead of him.  If the Nationals’ step back meant they didn’t have to a tough decision on Robles this winter, however, that decision may get a little tougher if Robles still hasn’t shown any improvement during the 2022 season.  If Robles can at least approach his 2019 form, that will provide at least one answer for the Nationals within this period of uncertainty for the franchise.

Nationals Option Victor Robles

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The Nationals announced they’ve optioned center fielder Víctor Robles to Triple-A Rochester. Fellow outfielder Andrew Stevenson has been recalled in his place.

It’s the culmination of back-to-back poor seasons for Robles, who finds himself in the minors for the first time since 2018. Robles has more or less been Washington’s everyday center fielder over the past three seasons, a role he’s been expected to hold for years. A one-time top prospect, Robles seized the center field job during the Nats’ World Series winning 2019 campaign. While he was a slightly below-average hitter that year, Robles rated as one of the league’s best baserunners and defensive outfielders. Only 22 years old, he looked to be a core piece who could emerge as an All-Star caliber player with just a bit of an improvement at the plate over the coming seasons.

Not only has Robles not taken another step offensively, he’s completely fallen flat at the plate. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has posted a .209/.304/.302 line over 558 plate appearances. That translates to a 67 wRC+ that suggests Robles has been 33 percentage points worse than the league average hitter. Of the 181 hitters with 500+ plate appearances over the past two years, only four (Kevin Newman, Elvis Andrus, Gregory Polanco and Garrett Hampson) have been less productive at the plate.

Those struggles have cost Robles playing time in recent days, as he hadn’t started a game since Friday. Lane Thomas, acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, has started the past three games in center and is in the lineup there again tonight. With Robles relegated to fourth outfielder duty at the big league level, the Nationals have evidently determined it better to get him continued reps against minor league pitching.

The Nationals could bring Robles back up relatively shortly, as position players only need be on optional assignment for ten days before they’re eligible to be recalled. (They can be brought up within ten days if recalled to replace an injured player). However, the timing of the demotion could suggest they’re prepared to leave Robles in the minors for additional experience. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 players starting tomorrow, so the Nats weren’t under immediate pressure to make a move from a roster limit perspective. Instead, it seems the team has decided an optional assignment to be the more prudent course of action for Robles’ long-term development.

Even if Robles doesn’t return to the majors this season, the demotion shouldn’t have an effect on his service time outlook. He entered the season with 2.052 years of big league time and has already accrued around 152 days of service this season. That’s more than enough to push him beyond the three-year threshold as had been anticipated. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is still ticketed to reach free agency over the 2024-25 offseason — assuming he begins next year on Washington’s active roster.

Nationals Reinstate Victor Robles From 10-Day IL

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Victor Robles is returning to the Nationals lineup, as the team announced that the outfielder has been activated from the 10-day injured list.  Infielder Luis Garcia was optioned to Triple-A yesterday to create room on the 26-man active roster.

Robles hasn’t played since May 19 (also his 24th birthday) due to a right ankle sprain.  Looking to bounce back from a 2020 season that was disappointing both offensively and defensively, Robles got off to a very slow start but was hitting better in the few games immediately prior to his ankle injury — over 133 PA, Robles is hitting .246/.348/.325.  His glovework has rebounded more strongly, as Robles has a +7.6 UZR/150 and +4 Defensive Runs Saved over 300 1/3 innings in center field.

With Robles back, Washington is more or less finally healthy on the position-player side for the first time all season, due to regular injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak at the beginning of the season.  The Nationals will need all the help they can get as they look to recover from a 21-28 start that has sent them to the NL East basement.

Nationals Place Will Harris, Victor Robles On 10-Day Injured List

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11:37AM: In a change of course, the Nationals have now placed Robles on the 10-day IL (retroactive to May 20) due to the right ankle sprain.  No corresponding move has been announced with less than a half-hour before the Nats take the field against the Orioles, so the Nats will only have 25 active players today.

11:33AM: The Nationals placed right-hander Will Harris on the 10-day injured list today, as Harris is again bothered by right hand inflammation.  The same injury sent Harris to the IL earlier this season and kept him from making his season debut until May 4.  Righty Kyle McGowin has been called up from Triple-A to take Harris’ spot on the active roster.

Harris had a blood clot removed from his right arm back in March, and there was some thought that he might require thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, though that much more extensive procedure wasn’t necessary.  That said, Harris was still dealing with inflammation almost a month after the blood clot’s removal, and it seems as though it has been a persistent problem for the veteran reliever that finally required another IL visit.

Needless to say, Harris’ pitching has been impacted by his injury, as he has a 9.00 ERA over six innings this season.  Yesterday’s rough outing against the Orioles might have been the proverbial last straw, as Harris faced three Baltimore hitters and allowed two runs without recording an out in an eventual 12-9 Washington victory.

In other injury news for the District team, Victor Robles isn’t in today’s starting lineup, as the outfielder continues to nurse a sprained right ankle.  Robles hasn’t played since suffering the injury on Wednesday, and X-rays on Robles’ ankle were negative and an MRI revealed the sprain.

Manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that Robles did some hitting off a tee yesterday.  Since the Nationals don’t have a game on Monday, Martinez said the hope is that two more days off will allow Robles to be ready by Tuesday, so a trip to the injured list can be avoided.  Andrew Stevenson has been filling in as the Nats’ center fielder while Robles is sidelined, and Yadiel Hernandez is also on hand for further outfield depth.

Robles’ injury is particularly poorly timed, as he had a 1.206 OPS over his last 20 plate appearances and was showing signs of emerging from his season-long slump.  Even with that hot streak, Robles was hitting only .246/.348/.325 over 133 PA, but was still helping the Nationals with his customary strong defense up the middle.

NL East Health Notes: Soroka, Phillies, Nats, D. Smith

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Fox Sports South that right-hander Mike Soroka could make his season debut in mid-April, David O’Brien of The Athletic relays. Soroka got through his third simulated game of the spring without any issues Friday. The 23-year-old remains on the comeback trail from a torn right Achilles that limited him to three starts last season. Before that, Soroka burst on the scene with 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching in 2019.

More from the National League East:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto played a sim game Friday and could make his Grapefruit League debut next week, manager Joe Girardi announced (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The star has been on the mend from a fractured right thumb. Girardi added that outfielder Adam Haseley is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a groin strain. Haseley, who went down March 5, hasn’t officially been ruled out for Opening Day.
  • Sticking with the Phillies, righty Vince Velasquez has an oblique injury, Girardi told Matt Gelb of The Athletic and other reporters. The severity is unknown, but oblique injuries often lead to absences that last for multiple weeks. It could be another shot to Philly’s staff, which has also seen Zach Eflin and Spencer Howard deal with injuries this spring. Velasquez could be their fifth starter to open 2021 if Eflin and Howar aren’t ready to go. In the event all three are shelved, though, it might open the door for veteran minor league addition Ivan Nova to claim a job.
  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles exited Friday’s game with back tightness, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. It doesn’t seem particularly serious, but the Nats will know more Saturday. Meanwhile, it was an encouraging day for righty Stephen Strasburg, who got through a 74-pitch sim game without any problems, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweets. A calf injury has slowed Strasburg this spring, after the former World Series MVP missed almost all of 2020 – the first season of a seven-year, $245MM contract – with carpal tunnel syndrome.
  • Mets slugger Dominic Smith informed Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters that he could return to Grapefruit League action as early as Sunday. Smith, the favorite to start in left field for the Mets, has been dealing with a right wrist issue that has sidelined him for the past couple of the days. He posted back-to-back excellent seasons at the plate from 2019-20, during which he combined for a .299/.366/.571 line with 21 home runs in 396 PA.

Outfielder Notes: Kirilloff, Kiermaier, Robles

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Twins top outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff has a definite chance to make the opening day roster, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Not unrelated, the Twins should face a fair amount of outside pressure to get Kirilloff on the roster from day one. Especially in the aftermath of Mariners’ CEO Kevin Mather openly copping to service time manipulation, it would be poor optics for the Twins to suggest Kirilloff needs more development time. After all, if he was ready to make his Major League debut in the playoffs last season – when service time is not accrued – one would think he is ready to make the lineup for games in April. That said, the 23-year-old former first round pick had not played about Double-A before going 1-for-4 against the Astros during the wild card series. Even so, all signs point to Kirilloff starting the season in the starting lineup. Minnesota let Eddie Rosario walk in free agency in part to make room, and with Royce Lewis being lost for the 2021 season due to injury, the Twins might feel some urgency to “carpe diem,” as it were, and make the most of Kirilloff’s window. Without him, Jorge Polanco probably plays second base while Luis Arraez could slide to the outfield. Elsewhere on the grass…

  • The Rays are cautiously easing Kevin Kiermaier into action this spring, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Kiermaier is experiencing hip soreness, and the Rays don’t want the issue lingering into the season. Kiermaier has dealt with a number of “lingering” health issues over the years that’s limited his playing time. Kiermaier was largely healthy in 2020, appearing in 49 games and slashing .217/.321/.362 before notching some big hits in the postseason, including three home runs. Of course, Kiermaier’s value proposition has never been hit bat. The three-time gold glove centerfielder is the linchpin of the Rays’ defensive scheme. They’ve made sure to acquire rangy outfielders to flank him in recent years (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brett Phillips), but Kiermaier remains the best defender of the bunch.
  • It’s been well-documented now that Victor Robles’ attempt to add muscle for the 2020 season might have played a part in his diminished defensive metrics. He still managed 2 outs above average by Statcast’s measure, while -4 DRS and -3.6 UZR painted a less rosy picture. Robles, of course, was an all-world defender in 2019 by any measure: 23 OAA, 23 DRS, 5.3 UZR. Robles has reversed course after adding 15 pounds last offseason, reporting to camp as the slimmer version of himself once more, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. The Nationals are assuming Robles will be back to his elite self in centerfield, as they’ll need him to cover lots of ground while sharing the grass with Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto. Both Schwarber (-3 OAA) and Soto (-2 OAA) have worked hard to improve themselves in the field, but neither one rates particularly well.
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