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How Worried Should The Cardinals Be About Paul Goldschmidt?

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The Cardinals reached the 2019 NLCS on the strength of their pitching and defense, as the team’s offensive efforts could best be described as middle of the pack.  After letting Marcell Ozuna leave in free agency and trading Jose Martinez to the Rays, St. Louis did more to subtract than add from the lineup during the offseason, as Brad Miller and the re-signed Matt Wieters were the only position players inked to Major League contracts.

Young players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and (eventually) top prospect Dylan Carlson are expected to make up some of this offensive slack as they grow into being big league regulars.  If and when the 2020 season gets underway, however, the Cards are also counting on several underachieving veteran bats — i.e. Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina — to get back to form.

At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt performed markedly better than that group.  The six-time All Star’s first season in St. Louis saw him hit .260/.346/.476 with 34 homers over 682 plate appearances.  This worked out to a 113 OPS+ and 116 wRC+, both of which ranked second on the team (behind Edman) among Cards batters with at least 349 PA.  Goldschmidt also came up big in the Cardinals’ five-game triumph over the Braves in the NLDS, posting a 1.383 OPS over 23 plate appearances to help lead St. Louis to its first postseason series victory since 2014.

All in all, it was a very solid showing for a veteran hitter in his age-31 season.  However, “very solid” is not what the Cardinals were expecting from Goldschmidt, especially given their major investment in his future during the 2018-19 offseason.

The Cards paid a hefty price to acquire Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks in December 2018, sending Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2020 draft (that 75th overall pick was used on Dominic Fletcher, a strong defensive outfielder ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Arizona’s farm system).  It was a lot to give up for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, though the Cardinals kept the slugger away from free agency by signing him to a five-year, $130MM extension last spring, locking Goldschmidt up for the 2020-24 seasons.

It was the priciest contract in Cardinals history, topping the seven-year, $120MM deal given to Matt Holliday in the 2009-10 offseason.  The Holliday contract, incidentally, is widely considered to be one of the best nine-figure free agent deals in baseball history — entering his age-30 season at the time of the agreement, Holliday remained a very productive player until almost the very end of the seven-year pact, as injuries began to take their toll.  He was limited to 703 PA over the last two seasons (2015-16) of his Cardinals contract, though Holliday still managed a 113 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ during that stretch.

Some might call this a “very solid showing” for an injury-plagued Holliday in his age 35-36 seasons….especially considering that it essentially matched what the 31-year-old Goldschmidt did over only slightly fewer plate appearances in 2019.

Granted, that observation is probably better served to illustrate that Holliday was a very underrated player moreso than it was to hint that Goldschmidt is already in a decline phase.  Still, considering how sharply Goldschmidt’s 2019 numbers dropped off from his superstar-level production in Arizona, the Cardinals can’t be happy about already having to consider if he has already peaked.

From 2013-18, Goldschmidt batted .301/.406/.541 over 3944 PA for the Diamondbacks, hitting 181 homers and posting a 149 wRC+/150 OPS+.  His 2019 campaign, therefore, marked easily the worst season of seven-year span, and Goldschmidt also posted the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate (11.4%), and BABIP (.302) of those seven years in 2019, while generating his second-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).

As per Statcast numbers that date back to 2015, Goldschmidt also posted his lowest hard-hit ball rate (42.4%), exit velocity (90.1 mph) and xwOBA (.361) of the Statcast era.  His xwOBA is higher than his .346 wOBA, however, and since Goldschmidt had never previously enjoyed less than a .340 BABIP in any of his full Major League seasons, there is some element of bad luck to his 2019 results.  As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne pointed out last July, however, Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has been in decline as he has gotten older, which has been borne out in his dwindling stolen base totals and, by extension, his ability to beat out grounders and keep up those inflated BABIP numbers.

Connor’s piece (titled “The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt”) was published on July 2….which, in classic reverse-jinx form, ended up being just about the nadir of Goldschmidt’s season.  After posting a .742 OPS from Opening Day through July 2, Goldschmidt proceeded to hit .274/.354/.554 over his final 326 PA.  It marked the second straight year that Goldschmidt rebounded from tough beginning to a season, as he had only a .721 OPS through his first 243 plate appearances of the 2018 campaign before crushing it to the tune of a whopping 1.040 OPS over his 447 remaining PA.

It’s possible St. Louis could look at those 2018 numbers and think that Goldschmidt might just be evolving into a slow-start type of player.  And again, it should be noted that Goldschmidt in no way was a bad player in 2019, with a 2.9 fWAR.  The issue is that the Cardinals were certainly counting on Goldschmidt’s prime to last at least a couple of years into his extension, not see it potentially already end before his extension even begins.

As a what-if, let’s imagine Goldschmidt hadn’t inked that new deal with the Cards and instead tested free agency.  On the heels of his 2019 performance and going into his age-32 season, he wouldn’t have come anywhere close to five years and $130MM on the open market.  Jose Abreu was the only other major name in the first base market, and the unusual nature of Abreu’s relationship with the White Sox makes him something of an outlier rather than as a Goldschmidt comp.  Abreu openly wanted to remain in Chicago, to the point that he accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed a further extension through the 2022 season (an extra two years and $32.2MM).

Abreu is a year older than Goldschmidt and doesn’t have such a long track record of elite performance.  Yet, considering how many felt the White Sox were generous in their extension with Abreu, could something in the neighborhood of a three-year guarantee for $50MM-$60MM have been Goldschmidt’s ceiling in free agency?  Teams are less willing than ever to pay a premium for anything below top-level offense from a first base-only player, and it’s likely multiple clubs would have been worried by Goldschmidt’s 2019.

Plus, a qualifying offer would have also been attached to Goldschmidt’s services, and it’s not out of the question that he could have himself accepted the $17.8MM QO as a form of a pillow contract.  On the other hand, he also might have been wary about leaving any further potential long-term money on the table since his early-career extension with the Diamondbacks ended up being a bargain for the club.  Goldschmidt and his representatives might have looked for a multi-year deal that, ideally, contained an opt-out after the first year, allowing Goldschmidt to re-enter the market if he did indeed prove that 2019 was an aberration.

In any case, the qualifying offer could have potentially helped the Cardinals in re-signing Goldschmidt at a much lower price than $130MM.  Or, while walking away from Goldschmidt entirely would have been bold given how much they sent to the D’Backs, the Cards could have looked elsewhere and, in this scenario, had $130MM in future funds to allocate to another offensive player.  Perhaps St. Louis could have made a big push for Anthony Rendon, or maybe outbid the Twins for Josh Donaldson (a longtime Cardinals target).

It’s all total speculation, of course, as Goldschmidt is on the Cards’ books through the 2024 season.  Of all the veterans St. Louis is relying on once baseball eventually gets underway, the length and cost of Goldschmidt’s contract make him the player the Cardinals most strongly hope can get back on track.

Cardinals’ Injured Pitchers Making Progress

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Before the coronavirus pandemic struck, the Cardinals were set to begin the regular season without some notable pitchers dealing with injuries. But if a season gets underway around midsummer, the Cardinals’ pitching staff could be at or near full strength, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains.

Right-hander Miles Mikolas, who underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing forearm in February, is making progress in his recovery. The Cardinals expect him to be ready for the start of the season, according to Goold. That’s a relief for both the short and long term, as forearm issues are often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. That outcome would have been disastrous for the Cardinals, who signed Mikolas to. a four-year, $68MM extension before last season and have seen him turn in back-to-back fine campaigns after he returned to the majors following a dominant stint in Japan.

Turning to the Cardinals’ bullpen, closer Jordan Hicks and lefties Andrew Miller and Brett Cecil are also coming along. The fireballing Hicks had TJS last June, and under normal circumstances, he’d have missed a sizable chunk of this season. However, he’s now throwing at “moderate intensity,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold, and seems to be on track for a July return. That could mean the Cardinals will get Hicks for some or all of a potential season.

Miller, who battled a mysterious arm problem before spring training stopped, now looks as if he’ll be good to go from the outset. Cecil’s status isn’t as clear. He suffered a major hamstring injury in mid-March, and while he should resume throwing within the next two weeks, it’s unknown if he’ll be shelved at the beginning of a possible season.

If they’re healthy, the Cardinals will need more from Miller and Cecil, recent free-agent signings who haven’t panned out to this point. The formerly dominant Miller struggled to a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP over 54 2/3 innings last season – the first of a two-year, $25MM contract. And Cecil, the recipient of a four-year, $30.5MM pact prior to the 2017 campaign, endured an abysmal 2018 and then didn’t pitch at all last season after he had surgery on carpal tunnel syndrome in his left hand. Of course, with Miller and Cecil eligible to return to free agency next winter, it’s possible neither will pitch for the Cardinals again if a season doesn’t take place.

When The Cardinals Almost Traded Away An Ace

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Right-hander Jack Flaherty has developed into an immensely valuable building block for the Cardinals since his first full season in 2018. He truly came into his own last year, a 196 1/3-inning showing in which he pitched to a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP with 10.59 K/9 and 2.52 BB/9. Flaherty was especially untouchable during the second half of the campaign, as he notched a stunning 0.91 ERA over 99 1/3 frames down the stretch to help the Cardinals to a National League Central title. The overall effort led to a fourth-place finish in the NL Cy Young balloting for the 24-year-old.

While Flaherty now looks like an irreplaceable member of the Cardinals’ roster, it wasn’t too long ago that they showed a willingness to part with him. Sure, the Cardinals invested quite a bit in him – they took Flaherty 34th overall in the 2014 draft – and he became a consensus top 100 prospect as a farmhand, but they considered moving him in an effort to bolster their offense.

When the Cardinals were trying to acquire outfielder Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins after the 2017 season, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that the Redbirds were open to dealing an “elite pitching prospect such as Sandy Alcantara or Jack Flaherty” to make the trade happen. A swap did not occur, though, as Stanton decided he would not waive his no-trade clause to go to St. Louis.

In hindsight, the Cardinals dodged a bullet. Stanton was coming off an NL MVP-winning season at the time, and though he’s still an effective player, injuries and a decline in performance have weighed him down the past two years in a Yankees uniform. And Stanton’s contract would have been a burden to the Cardinals, as he still had $295MM coming to him at the time and continues to be owed well over $200MM now.

The Cardinals couldn’t get the Stanton deal done, but their talks with the Marlins did lay the foundation for a notable trade between the teams. A few days after Stanton said no to St. Louis, it acquired fellow outfielder Marcell Ozuna from Miami. It was costly for the Cardinals, who gave up Alcantara and another young pitcher, Zac Gallen, as part of the package. Both of them have since turned into quality major league starters, so they’re missed in St. Louis. Ozuna’s no longer on the team, either, as he left for the Braves in free agency this past offseason after two solid years as a Cardinal. But at least he didn’t cost the team Flaherty, as Stanton might have.

Stanton wasn’t the only big bat whom the Cardinals considered trading Flaherty for heading into 2018. They also reportedly were willing to surrender him for then-Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was entering his final year of team control and was due $23MM. Thankfully for the Cardinals, the Jays declined their offer. That proved to be an enormous mistake by Toronto, which finished well below .500 in 2018 as Donaldson struggled through an injury-riddled year. The club did end up trading him to Cleveland that August, but it received a much lighter return in the form of righty Julian Merryweather, who’s now 28 and still hasn’t pitched in the majors.

There’s a saying that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. That holds true for St. Louis in the two aforementioned cases. The organization was clearly fortunate to retain Flaherty, who has evolved into one of the most effective pitchers in baseball. And as someone who won’t reach arbitration until next winter, the Cardinals aren’t in danger of losing him soon, nor will he put a major dent in their payroll in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yadier Molina Intends To Play Beyond 2020, Whether Or Not With Cardinals

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In an interesting twist on the post-2020 catching market, long-time Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina tells ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera that he’s open to playing in another uniform if and when he reaches free agency.

That’s quite a different stance than the one Molina announced just a few months ago. He made clear then that he was interested in continuing to play, but only in St. Louis, where he has been a fixture behind the dish since 2005. The team reciprocated and launched extension talks that seemed likely to come to fruition.

Now? Molina explains to Rivera that “the situation with this pandemic has changed everything.” While he still prefers to remain with the Cards — the only team he has ever played for — the likely future Hall of Famer says he’s “willing to go into free agency” and find another organization.

It seems the change of heart is less about Molina’s feelings towards the team than it is his feelings for the game of baseball itself. He says he’d like to “have that conversation” again about an extension with the Cardinals, at least once baseball finally starts back up. And Molina says he’s “confident” an agreement will come together.

But the time away from the game has also convinced Molina he wants to keep going past a (likely shortened) 2020 campaign.  In fact, the 37-year-old says he intends to keep playing for two more seasons no matter the outcome of his talks with the Cards.

Mark Hamilton Begins Medical Career

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The Major League career of former first baseman/outfielder Mark Hamilton consisted of 47 games with the Cardinals in 2010-11, a brief stint that netted Hamilton a World Series ring for his role in the Cards’ 2011 championship squad.  After being released by the Braves in July 2014, Hamilton stuck to his vow to go to medical school if he wasn’t a big league regular by his 30th birthday, and ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes that Hamilton is set to officially begin his medical career in June at two New York hospitals “at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.”  Though Hamilton is trained in interventional radiology, the early days of his six-year residency program will inevitably be focused on helping treat coronavirus patients.  While the pandemic has “been very eye-opening,”  Hamilton said, “I wanted to go into medicine because I really enjoyed caring for people. I enjoy being able to help others when they’re in their darkest hour, when they need somebody to both support them from a medical side and an emotional side. And I’m definitely going to be able to do that in my first year.”

The 10-Year Anniversary Of A Notable Cardinals Signing

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We’ve reached the 10-year anniversary of a Cardinals move that has paid significant dividends for the franchise. It was on this date in 2010 that the Cardinals signed right-hander Carlos Martinez out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.5MM bonus. The deal came a year after a $150K agreement Martinez had with the Red Sox fell through because of questions over his name and birthday, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com detailed back in 2013.

Martinez’s issues were ultimately sorted out after the Boston deal collapsed, and St. Louis has been the beneficiary. After a torrid run through the minors, Martinez ended up debuting in the majors in 2013 as a hyped prospect, even making five appearances in relief against Boston in St. Louis’ World Series loss to the Red Sox. He has since established himself as a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Martinez truly broke out as a starter in 2015, the first season of a three-year, 580-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.24 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.92 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. The Cardinals made a sizable commitment to Martinez after the second of those seasons, signing him to an extension worth a guaranteed $51MM over five years in February 2017. Martinez is down to his last two guaranteed seasons on that pact, though the Cardinals will be able to control him for 2022 and ’23 via club options; that is, if they’re willing to pay him $17MM in the first year and/or $18MM in the second (otherwise, they could buy him out in either season for $500K).

Martinez seemed to be on pace to have those options picked up just a couple years ago, but it’s less clear what his future holds at this point. Now 28 years old, Martinez spent the majority of the previous two seasons as a reliever – an effective one at that – owing in part to injuries. Dating back to 2018, he has tossed 167 innings of 3.13 ERA/3.34 FIP ball with 9.16 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a typically above-average grounder percentage of 51.1.

All 48 of the hard-throwing Martinez’s appearances last year came out of the Cardinals’ bullpen as he recovered from shoulder issues, and he even converted 24 of 27 save opportunities while filling in for the injured Jordan Hicks as their closer. However, before the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head and caused baseball to shut down, the 28-year-old looked as if he was on track to return to his prior role in the St. Louis rotation in 2020.

No matter which job Martinez takes on this season (if there is one), it’s fair to say his production as both a starter and a reliever has been a boon to the Cardinals. Ten years ago today, they landed a two-time All-Star for a relative pittance.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Employee Pay, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Pirates, Shelton, Kela

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Phillies owner John Middleton informed the team’s employees Friday that no one will be laid off or forced to take a pay cut through at least the end of May, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. “I am neither an epidemiologist nor a public policy maker, but I do know our industry, and it is my sincere belief that baseball will be played this year,” Middleton wrote in a letter, adding that there’s no reason to reduce the club’s budget when he’s under the impression that “a meaningful number of games” will take place in 2020. The Phillies are just the second team to commit to no cuts through May, joining the division-rival Braves. More teams are expected to follow, however, with the Giants the latest team to make the commitment, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

  • The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt has set up camp in his Jupiter-area home during the quarantine, but he’s finding new ways to keep his head in the game. Thanks to a virtual reality product from WIN Reality, Goldschmidt can simulate at-bats against any pitcher in the game, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldschmidt got enough exposure to live pitching in spring training to fully test his new virtual reality gear, and he came away impressed with its accuracy. Goldy is working out in more traditional ways as well, but the VR gear is giving him an opportunity to rest his elbow while still simulating game experience.
  • The Pirates under Clint Hurdle became known for contentious run-ins with other teams due to their proclivity for throwing up and in. The bad rap was furthered by pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow developing into aces once having left Pittsburgh. But Derek Shelton runs the dugout in Pittsburgh now, and it remains to be seen how the culture will change under new leadership. Shelton spoke to some of his tendencies, however, including how he will let statistics and the extenuating circumstances determine how often he lets his starters go through a lineup a third time (as much as how the pitcher is performing on any given day), per Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Shelton also spoke about the closer role, where he expects Keone Kela to serve as a traditional closer.

Mark Reynolds Announces Retirement

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Veteran slugger Mark Reynolds, who enjoyed a 13-year big league career split between the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Orioles, Indians, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees and Brewers, announced in an appearance on Mad Dog Sports Radio on SiriusXM that he’s officially retired (Twitter link, with audio).

Mark Reynolds | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

“I’ve moved beyond that,” Reynolds said when asked if he planned to seek another contract once MLB’s transaction freeze has been lifted. “I’ve retired. … I’m really enjoying time with my family, and it’s time for me to move on and find something else to do.”

The 36-year-old Reynolds spent the majority of the 2019 season in the Rockies organization, serving as a part-time first baseman and a bench bat until he was cut loose on July 28. He’d enjoyed a quality season with the Nationals a year prior in 2018, but Reynolds struggled to the lowest offensive numbers of his career with the Rox last year.

Originally a 16th-round pick of the Diamondbacks out of the University of Virginia back in 2004, Reynolds made his big league debut less than three years after being drafted. Reynolds was never considered one of the organization’s premier prospects — his No. 7 ranking on Baseball America’s list of D-backs prospects prior to the ’07 campaign was the only time he broke their top 30 — Reynolds hit the ground running. He was promoted to the big leagues in mid-May and closed out the remainder of the season as a regular in the lineup, hitting .279/.349/.495 with 17 home runs.

By 2008, Reynolds was Arizona’s everyday third baseman. His power was unquestionable, although the same could be said of his questionable contact skills. Reynolds became one of the game’s quintessential boom-or-bust players, regularly headlining home run and strikeout leaderboards alike. From 2008-11, he averaged 35 big flies per season  but also led his league in strikeouts each year along the way. At that time, a player who was punching out in roughly a third of his plate appearances was an alarming anomaly; the league average strikeout rate back in Reynolds’ first full year was 17.5 percent — a full six percent lower than 2019’s mark.

Reynolds had a rough year in 2010, prompting the D-backs to trade him to the Orioles in return for reliever David Hernandez and prospect Kam Mickolio. He bounced back with the Birds and helped them to the postseason in 2012, but Baltimore declined an $11MM club option over Reynolds’ final arbitration year that offseason and non-tendered him, making him a free agent for the first time in his career.

Reynolds would bounce from Cleveland to New York to Milwaukee to St. Louis to Colorado to D.C. and back to Colorado on a series of one-year and minor league deals from that point forth. He delivered some productive seasons along the way and even popped 30 homers for the 2017 Rockies before giving the Nationals an absurd 5-for-5, two-homer, 10-RBI day in 2018 (video link).

Reynolds will conclude his playing career with a .236/.328/.453 batting line over the life of 6243 plate appearances and 1688 Major League games. In that time, he belted 298 home runs, 253 doubles, 14 triples and stole 64 bases while also scoring 794 times and knocking in 871 runs. The slugger took home nearly $30MM in career earnings while providing a litany of tape-measure home runs on which we can all fondly look back. Best wishes to Reynolds and his family in whatever lies ahead.

The Cardinals’ Blocked Prospects

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The Cardinals haven’t had a losing record since 2007. Despite a recent playoff “drought” — a three-year stretch from 2016-18 that only qualifies as such by the St. Louis organization’s lofty standards — the Cards have run out a solid roster on an annual basis. Riding a blend of productive veterans, high-end prospects who emerge as key contributors and what seems like an out-of-nowhere success story or two every year (we see you, Tommy Edman), the Cardinals have established themselves among MLB’s more consistent franchises.

And while their strong track record in player development allows them to continually filter up quality young players to complement the veterans on the roster, it also inevitably leaves some talented players on the outside looking in. Because they’ve been able to develop so many quality youngsters, the Cards simply don’t have the space to play them all. (That’s a partial driver behind the outfield carousel they’ve experienced in recent years — though certainly not the only factor.)

Just look at some of the young players the Cardinals have traded away prior to 2019 while still managing to field competitive rosters:

That’s nine big league regulars/rotation pieces shipped out — in some cases, for disappointing returns — without causing the final on-field product to dip below .500. It’s a testament to the Cardinals’ amateur scouting and player development staffs that they’re so regularly deep with talent that they’re able to ship it off for veterans, potential areas of need or larger quantities of further-off talent. Certainly, not all of those swaps have worked out — Mercado or Pham would look nice in the outfield right now — but the Cardinals have rarely come up completely empty-handed on a deal.

Trades of this nature have become the norm for the Cards, and it’s likely that will continue to be the case. With Yadier Molina reportedly talking extension prior to the shutdown and Paul Goldschmidt signed five more years, for instance, the Cards look to have a pair of roadblocks to some more young talent. The outfield, too, has more names than playing time available. It seems likely that we’ll see more young players change hands as a result in the next calendar year, so let’s run through some possibilities.

Catcher

If a Molina extension does indeed come together, that doesn’t leave much of a path to regular playing time for 25-year-old Andrew Knizner — a  fairly well-regarded backstop whose bat looks close to big league ready. In 83 games and 341 plate appearances in Triple-A, Knizner is a .283/.362/.453 hitter with an 8.2 percent walk rate and just a 13.1 percent strikeout rate. Scouting reports on Knizner question his receiving and framing skills, but he notched a 42 percent caught-stealing rate with Triple-A Memphis in 2019.

If Knizner does indeed change hands following a Molina extension — the Cards brought Matt Wieters back to serve as his backup again — then perhaps 19-year-old Ivan Herrera will emerge as the true heir-apparent to Molina and his Hall of Fame legacy.

First Base

Luken Baker isn’t an elite prospect — few first-base-only prospects are considered as such — but FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put a 70 grade on his raw power in this year’s scouting report on the hulking 6’4″, 265-pound slugger in the making. Baker hasn’t tapped into that power just yet, though he spent the 2019 season in a pitcher-friendly Florida State League (Class-A Advanced). He’s managed his strikeouts to this point (21.6 percent) and also walked in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances. With Goldschmidt entrenched at first base through 2024, there’s no hope of Baker emerging as a regular in the near future, which seemingly puts him on a similar track to Voit.

Elsewhere on the roster, 27-year-old Rangel Ravelo (28 later this month) is out of minor league options and limited to a bench role. A career .293/.369/.452 hitter in 1652 Triple-A plate appearances who also slashed .310/.385/.473 in 649 Double-A plate appearances, Ravelo has done enough in the minors to suggest that he could hit in the big leagues. He’s played a little corner outfield, so perhaps the Cards view him as a replacement for the recently traded Jose Martinez. However, it’s possible that another club could view him as a potential late-blooming regular at first base.

The Outfield

The Dexter Fowler signing clearly hasn’t panned out as hoped, but the switch-hitting veteran’s five-year, $82.5MM deal runs through the 2021 season. Had the 2019 campaign been as much of a struggle as his 2018 season, he’d perhaps be a release candidate, but Fowler’s bat bounced back to roughly league-average levels last year (103 wRC+, 98 OPS+), and his contract should grant him a decent leash.

Harrison Bader was one of the game’s best defenders in center (14 Defensive Runs Saved, 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 13 Outs Above Average), so he’s probably locked into center field despite a rough sophomore showing at the dish (.205/.314/.366).

Left field was to be determined in camp, with the likes of Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and waiver claim Austin Dean vying for playing time. Carlson ranks among baseball’s elite overall prospects and should be installed as a regular at some point in 2020 (assuming a season is played). Even in the unlikely event that the club quickly moves on from Fowler, there’d be O’Neill, Thomas and Williams left to compete for that theoretical spot.

O’Neill was a ballyhooed prospect himself when acquired from Seattle, and though strikeouts have been an issue, he’s a passable corner defender with light-tower power and a history of drawing walks in the upper minors. Thomas can play a solid center field and owns a career .270/.342/.472 slash through 444 plate appearances in Triple-A. Williams is a corner bat who draws good marks for his raw power. He’s yet to show off that power in the minors, but FanGraphs points to his high-end exit velocity as a source of optimism if he can add more lift to his swing.

—

Most organizations would love to have the “more talent than playing time” issue on the big league roster — and you certainly won’t head president of baseball ops John Mozeliak or GM Mike Girsch complain about the reality. But that duo and the rest of the Cards’ front office figure to continue to find creative ways to deal with those surpluses, and it shouldn’t come as a big surprise if some of the above names finally get their chance at playing time in another organization,

The Cardinals’ Outfield Carousel

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No doubt you’ve heard it said that the Cardinals have gone through quite a few outfielders in recent years. That puts it mildly. The organization is now awaiting the readiness of top prospect Dylan Carlson, with hopes that he’ll not only blossom into a star but bring some long-term stability.

Churning through players isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Every deal is an opportunity, of course. But it’s quite remarkable how much turnover the Cards have had over the past five seasons. Teams play around 1400 innings a year … over seven thousand frames have been played in that span by the St. Louis team, but no single outfielder has come close to appearing in half of them.

Here’s a log of the players who have come and gone (or who remain on hand). They’re ordered by the number of innings played in the outfield, with all statistical accumulations provided for only the seasons in question (2015-19).

Dexter Fowler (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: Signed five-year, $82.5MM free agent contract
  • Output: 2,720 1/3 total OF innings; .233/.335/.410 (97 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Stephen Piscotty (2015-17)

  • Originally acquired: 2012 1st round draft pick
  • Output: 2,588 2/3 total OF innings; .268/.346/.438 (109 OPS+)
  • Signed six-year, $33.5MM extension
  • Outcome: Traded to Athletics for Yairo Munoz, Max Schrock

Tommy Pham (2015-18)

Randal Grichuk (2015-17)

Marcell Ozuna (2018-19)

Harrison Bader (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: 2015 3rd round draft pick
  • Output: 2,013 total OF innings; .236/.320/.393 (90 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jason Heyward (2015)

Jose Martinez (2016-19)

Matt Holliday (2015-16)

Brandon Moss (2015-16)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Indians for Rob Kaminsky
  • Output: 586 2/3 total OF innings; .231/.311/.466 (106 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Signed with Royals as free agent

Tyler O’Neill (2018-19)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Mariners for Marco Gonzales
  • Output: 552 1/3 total OF innings; .258/.307/.454 (101 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jon Jay (2015)

  • Originally acquired: 2006 2nd round draft pick
  • Output: 496 2/3 total OF innings; .210/.306/.257 (56 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Traded to Padres for Jedd Gyorko and cash

Peter Bourjos (2015)

Jeremy Hazelbaker (2016) –

  • Originally acquired: Signed to minor-league deal as free agent
  • Output: 402 1/3 total OF innings; .235/.295/.480 (104 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Claimed by Diamondbacks

Yairo Munoz (2018-19)

Magneuris Sierra (2017)

Kolten Wong (2016)

  • 106 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Tommy Edman (2019)

  • 82 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Lane Thomas (2019)

  • 81 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster

Randy Arozarena (2019)

Mark Reynolds (2015)

  • 42 total OF innings
  • Departed via free agency

Matt Adams (2017)

Adolis Garcia (2018)

  • 30 1/3 total OF innings
  • Traded to Rangers for cash considerations

Others receiving OF playing time:

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