Which Top Prospects Could Be On 2026 Opening Day Rosters?
In the not-too-distant past, it was relatively rare for organizations to break camp with their very best prospects on the roster. It still happened at times, but MLB's service time structure was set up such that keeping a top prospect in the minors for even two weeks to begin the season effectively ensured that he'd be controllable for seven years rather than the standard six. There were obvious exceptions to this thinking -- Atlanta fans surely remember Jason Heyward breaking camp as a 20-year-old and belting a three-run homer on Opening Day -- but there were far more cases of keeping a player in the minors to buy the extra year. Kris Bryant, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others were all called to the majors just when they'd spent enough time in the minors to give their clubs an extra year of control. There was nothing inherently nefarious about the gambit; teams were operating within the collectively bargained rules and making business decisions.
The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement sought to implement some real incentives for teams to bring their best players north to begin the season, however, and by and large they've been effective. With the Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI), any prospect who appears on two recognized top-100 lists and is called up early enough to earn a full service year can net his team a bonus draft pick, either in that season's Rookie of the Year voting or in MVP/Cy Young voting over the next three seasons.
There's also a disincentive to holding a player down. For those same qualified top prospects, a top-two finish in either league's Rookie of the Year voting will net a full year of major league service time, regardless of when they were called up. Said prospects still have around 90% of a season in such instances, which is more than enough time to turn in a ROY-worthy performance.
Teams now know that holding a player down for 15 days or so might lead to him getting a full year of service anyhow and comes with the disadvantage of rendering that player ineligible for future PPI picks. As such, it's become increasingly common for touted prospects to break camp on their teams' rosters.
With that in mind, and with fewer than two weeks to go until Opening Day, it seems worth running through a slate of top prospects who could factor into their teams' Opening Day plans.
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MLBTR Podcast: Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies and Jesús Luzardo signing an extension (1:55)
- Johan Rojas reportedly testing positive for a PED and how that impacts the Phillies (16:55)
- The Braves losing Jurickson Profar to yet another PED suspension and Joey Wentz to a season-ending injury (22:15)
- The Nationals signing Zack Littell (36:25)
- The Pirates trading Kyle Nicolas to the Reds for Tyler Callihan (43:40)
- The Rangers signing Andrew McCutchen to a minor league deal (48:45)
- The Astros dealing with a Jeremy Peña injury and how that impacts the ongoing Isaac Paredes trade rumors (53:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More! – listen here
- Twins And Orioles’ Injuries, The Guardians And Angels’ Quiet Offseasons, And Chris Sale’s Extension – listen here
- The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images
Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates went into the winter with a lot of pitching and almost no hitting. They spent the offseason smoothing out that imbalance and the team looks better going into 2026. Is it enough to get them back to the playoffs for first time in over a decade?
Major League Signings
- 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn: Two years, $29MM
- DH Marcell Ozuna: One year, $12MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2027)
- LHP Gregory Soto: One year, $7.75MM
- RHP José Urquidy: One year, $1.5MM
2026 spending: $35.25MM
Total spending: $50.25MM
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Dugan Darnell from Rockies (later lost to Tigers via waivers)
- Acquired OF Jhostynxon García and RHP Jesus Travieso from Red Sox for RHP Johan Oviedo, LHP Tyler Samaniego and C Adonys Guzman
- Claimed OF Marco Luciano from Giants (later lost to Orioles via waivers)
- Acquired RHP Jaiker Garcia from Rangers for Rule 5 pick Carter Baumler
- Acquired 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and LHP Mason Montgomery from Rays in three-team trade, with RHP Mike Burrows going from Pirates to Astros
- Acquired IF Francisco Loreto from Phillies for RHP Chase Shugart
- Acquired IF/OF Tyler Callihan from Reds for RHP Kyle Nicolas
Option Decisions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Joe La Sorsa, Noah Murdock, Beau Burrows, Ronny Simón, Davis Wendzel, Dominic Fletcher, Chris Devenski, Noah Davis, Mike Clevinger, Carson Fulmer
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Jack Little (waivers), Ji Hwan Bae (waivers), José Castillo (waivers), Liover Peguero, Cam Devanney (released and signed in Japan), Colin Holderman (non-tendered), Dauri Moreta (non-tendered, still unsigned), Alexander Canario (non-tendered and signed in Japan), Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Chase Shugart, Jack Suwinski (waivers), Kyle Nicolas
The Bucs have been stuck in a rebuilding pattern for a while. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2015 and haven’t topped 82 wins in any season since then. They flirted with contention in recent seasons, though in the era of the expanded playoffs, that just means they floated near .500 for parts of the summer.
They have graduated a lot of exciting pitching prospects to the majors in recent years but have struggled to hit. The 2025 team scored 583 runs, lowest in the majors. The team had a combined .231/.305/.350 batting line, which translated to an 82 wRC+, indicating the squad was collectively 18% worse than league average. The only guy on the team with a wRC+ greater than 101 was Spencer Horwitz, who started the season on the injured list due to wrist surgery and did most of his damage in the second half.
Despite the clear deficiencies on the roster, there was a case for making a strong push this offseason. Paul Skenes has just four years of club control remaining and may not spend all of that in Pittsburgh. His salary will increase via arbitration in 2027 and he may not sign an extension, so he could be traded before reaching free agency, currently slated for the 2029-30 offseason. Konnor Griffin became the top prospect in baseball in 2025 and put himself in position to make a major league debut in 2026. If you’re not going to invest around these stars, then when?
The club has not been active in free agency historically. They have never given a free agent $40MM in franchise history. Since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in 2019, he had never signed a free agent to a multi-year deal or signed a one-year deal worth as much as $11MM. But in the early offseason, Cherington suggested they could add $30-40MM to the payroll. That wouldn’t be too exciting for a lot of clubs but would be an increase for the Bucs. There was also the trade market, as they appeared to have enough starting pitching that flipping some for offense seemed possible.
Given the weakness of the lineup, the Bucs had the freedom to target almost any bat, regardless of position. Quickly, it became clear that Cherington’s words weren’t completely hollow, as he went after some of the top available guys. It was reported in mid-November that the club had made a strong offer to Josh Naylor before he had re-signed with the Mariners and they were also in the mix for Kyle Schwarber. Signing either would have required shattering their $39MM franchise record for a free agent deal. They were also connected to guys like Kazuma Okamoto and Jorge Polanco in the early offseason.
Their first notable move wasn’t for a surefire lineup boost, but it did feature the pitching-for-hitting framework that was expected. There were five players in the deal but the headline was that the Bucs sent righty Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox for outfield prospect Jhostynxon García. Oviedo had shown some promise in 2023 when he posted a 4.31 earned run average over 32 starts. He missed 2024 due to surgery, returned in 2025 and put up a 3.57 ERA with more strikeouts but also more walks.
Oviedo has two years of club control remaining and may have some upside but the Pirates had enough starting pitching talent to part ways with him. By doing so, they added an intriguing but unproven outfielder to their roster. García has been on some top 100 prospect lists but has just five big league games under his belt. He should have a chance to earn some playing time but his path would eventually be crowded by the rest of Pittsburgh’s offseason moves.
The Schwarber dream died on December 9th, when he returned to the Phils on a five-year, $150MM deal. The Bucs reportedly offered him a four-year deal in the $120MM range. That obviously wasn’t enough but it signaled that there was indeed some change in the pocket.
On the same date that the Schwarber news dropped, the Bucs did get a deal done, but with a reliever. They agreed to a one-year deal with Gregory Soto worth $7.75MM. Soto had a 4.40 ERA over the past three years but with perhaps more interesting numbers under the hood. His 9.4% walk rate was around average for a reliever, while his 25.9% strikeout rate and 48.4% ground ball rate were a few ticks better than par. A .325 batting average on balls in play and 67.7% strand rate seemed to hurt him, which is why his 3.55 FIP and 3.55 SIERA were more optimistic. If his ERA trends closer to those other metrics, it could be a nice bit of business for the Pirates.
A little over a week later, the Pirates made their first surefire upgrade to the lineup. Like the Oviedo-García swap, this one would see the Bucs trading from their rotation depth. In a three-team trade, they sent Mike Burrows to the Astros in order to receive infielder Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and left-hander Mason Montgomery from the Rays. Burrows was a steep price to pay, as he has six years of club control remaining. But the Pirates had several such arms in their rotation mix and didn’t have room for all of them.
The biggest upgrade for 2026 is Lowe, though he is just a rental, since there is one year left on his contract. But he’s one of the top power bats at the second base position. He has 81 home runs over the past five years. Only four primary second baseman have more. The four guys ahead of him all played a larger sample of games in that span, which speaks to some injury trouble Lowe has had, which is the main knock against him. Though he doesn’t count as a free agent, the Bucs are taking on his contract and will pay him $11.5MM this year.
Mangum and Montgomery are more complementary pieces of the trade but still potentially impactful. Mangum’s first year in the big leagues saw him steal 27 bases and get strong grades for his glovework. His bat was a bit below par but he was still useful on the whole. He has five years of club control and a full slate of options. Even if he’s just a fourth outfielder type, he has value. If his bat finds a new gear, then that’s even better. Montgomery has huge strikeout stuff but poor control. He’s a project but one with upside if things break right. He also comes with five years of club control and has options.
The Bucs were clearly not content to stop after Lowe. In the coming days, they would be connected to guys like Eugenio Suárez and Yoán Moncada. Just before the holiday break, they pulled the trigger on a free agent addition, a two-year deal with Ryan O’Hearn worth $29MM. While a notch below the Schwarber/Naylor pursuits, it was still somewhat notable as the biggest free agent deal of Cherington’s tenure.
O’Hearn isn’t a superstar but has been solidly above average at the plate. Over the past three years, he has 46 home runs, a .277/.343/.445 line and 121 wRC+. He has some ability to play the outfield but is more of a first baseman. It initially seemed like he and Horwitz would share first base and the designated hitter spot, but this would change in the coming months.
The Pirates were still hunting for more offense, getting connected to various bats throughout January. They also showed some interest in Framber Valdez as he lingered unsigned, though that seemed like an odd fit and he eventually landed with the Tigers.
They did apparently have room for one arm in the rotation after their recent trades, as they landed José Urquidy on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. The Bucs usually sign a cheap left-hander late in the offseason. Since PNC Park is so tough on righty power, those lefties can usually outperform their contracts. Urquidy is right-handed but is basically filling that role since he has reverse splits in his career.
There was one more clear lineup boost to come, as the Pirates signed Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $12MM deal in February. It’s a bit risky since Ozuna is 35 years old and coming off a down year, by his standards. His season was weighed down by a summer slump which coincided with him battling a hip injury. Perhaps he can bounce back with a full season of health but that’s no guarantee at his age.
In addition to the risk, the addition also gummed up the lineup a little bit. Ozuna is just a designated hitter at this point in his career. He didn’t play the field at all in 2024 or 2025 and was in the outfield for just 14 innings in 2023. If he’s in the DH spot most days, Lowe is at second and Horwitz is at first, that means O’Hearn will have to be in the outfield almost every day. He’s never started more than 23 games on the grass in any season of his career, so that will be new for him, but it seems the Bucs are willing to make that compromise as they try to add as much thump to the lineup as possible.
In addition to displacing O’Hearn, there are other ripple effects. With Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz in the other two outfield spots, guys like García and Mangum will be pushed to fourth outfielder roles or maybe even the minors. It also effectively closed off any chance of another reunion with Andrew McCutchen. He seemed frustrated by the situation but eventually moved on, signing a minor league deal with the Rangers.
The Bucs added one more guy into the depth picture with a spring trade. They sent reliever Kyle Nicolas to the Reds in exchange for infielder/outfielder Tyler Callihan. Nicolas is almost like a righty version of Montgomery, with big stuff but poor control. If he puts it together in Cincinnati, this one could sting, but it’s also possible that doesn’t happen. Callihan has just four big league games under his belt but strong minor league numbers. He played first base, second base and left field last year, so he provides depth in a few spots.
It was a busy offseason and it feels like there’s more optimism surrounding the Pirates than there has been for quite some time. When combining free agents and the money they took on in the Lowe deal, they added roughly $50MM to the 2026 payroll.
Despite trading away several arms, they project to have a rotation including Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Urquidy. Jared Jones will return from his surgery rehab at some point, perhaps as early as late May. Prospects Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco will be lurking in Triple-A.
The lineup will need incumbent guys like Reynolds and Cruz to bounce back but the Bucs have added Lowe, O’Hearn and Ozuna as three everyday upgrades. Guys like Garcia, Mangum and Callihan will be pushing for jobs over time. The left side of the infield feels like a weak spot but Griffin should be up to take over shortstop at some point, maybe as soon as Opening Day. That would leave guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales and others fighting over third base.
Is this enough to get them over the hump? The National League Central is in fairly healthy shape. The Cardinals are rebuilding but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds all made the playoffs last year. Did the Pirates add enough to leapfrog someone?
How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images
Pirates, Reds Swap Tyler Callihan For Kyle Nicolas
The Pirates announced they’ve traded relief pitcher Kyle Nicolas to the Reds for left fielder/second baseman Tyler Callihan. Both players were on the 40-man roster, so there’s no corresponding move.
It’s a swap of talented but largely unproven players between the NL Central rivals. Nicolas, 27, has the more significant MLB experience of the two. A second-round pick by the Marlins in 2020, he was traded to Pittsburgh as one of two prospects the following year for Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings. Nicolas was a starting pitcher at the time but always projected to a bullpen future because of spotty command.
Nicolas debuted as a September call-up in 2023. The Ball State product has opened each of the following two seasons on optional assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis. Nicolas has posted below-average numbers at the MLB level but remains an intriguing depth piece with big stuff.
In 98 MLB innings, Nicolas carries a 4.68 earned run average. He has struck out a league average 22% of opponents while issuing walks at a lofty 12.2% rate. He split his time evenly between the majors and Triple-A last year. While he allowed nearly five earned runs per nine at the MLB level, he posted a 3.79 ERA with an excellent 31% strikeout rate against minor league opposition. Nicolas walked more than 12% of Triple-A opponents and has posted double digit walk rates at almost every stop of his professional career.
The command will probably keep Nicolas in middle relief. He’d have the raw stuff to pitch at the back of a bullpen if he can find a way to throw more strikes. Nicolas sits in the 97-98 mph range with his heater and has a pair of power breaking balls: a 90-91 mph slider and mid-80s curveball.
He also uses his 6’3″ frame to get down the mound and generate a lot of extension, though the long levers have also seemingly held him back from finding consistency in his delivery. Nicolas commanded the ball better down the stretch last season. He walked only 8.4% of opponents while posting a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings after the All-Star Break. It’s a small sample but perhaps something to build off as he tries to earn a permanent bullpen spot.
Nicolas has a little over one year of service time. He’s at least two years away from arbitration and five years from reaching free agency. He has one minor league option remaining, so the Reds can send him to Triple-A Louisville without exposing him to waivers. Nicolas tossed two scoreless innings this spring before joining Team Italy for the World Baseball Classic. (He’s from Ohio but has a family link to Italy that made him eligible to participate.)
Cincinnati doesn’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen, where six of their relievers cannot be optioned. Graham Ashcraft has options but is a lock to begin the season in the late innings. Unless the Reds move on from Sam Moll, they’d only have one bullpen spot available between Nicolas, Luis Mey, Connor Phillips and Zach Maxwell. The latter four pitchers all have big arms but come with strike-throwing questions.
The Pirates subtract from their bullpen depth to take a flier on an intriguing hitter who hasn’t found a position. The 25-year-old Callihan was an overslot third-round signee out of high school in 2019. Scouts have praised the lefty hitter’s offensive aptitude while panning his defense. The Jacksonville native has a career .262/.332/.417 batting line over six minor league seasons.
Callihan’s performance in the low minors was a little inconsistent. He has posted better numbers as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. Callihan hit .271/.345/.413 in Double-A two seasons ago and was out to a .303/.410/.528 start over 24 Triple-A contests last year. The Reds called him up at the end of April.
Unfortunately, Callihan didn’t get a chance to establish himself as a rookie. He suffered a gruesome injury just six days into his big league career.
Callihan was playing left field against the Braves on May 5. Matt Olson hit a line drive that sliced away from him down the left field line. Callihan slid to try to catch the ball and was unable to brace himself before hitting the wall with his outstretched glove hand. The collision broke his arm and forced him to undergo season-ending surgery. (Adding insult to injury, Olson trotted around for an inside-the-park home run because Callihan had touched the ball in fair territory.)
That ended his debut campaign after six at-bats, in which he collected his first career hit and run batted in. Callihan entered Spring Training without any restrictions and has gotten into seven exhibition contests, going 2-9 with a home run.
Baseball America ranked Callihan the #20 prospect in the Cincinnati system over the offseason, while Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted him 29th in the organization. Callihan has improved his plate discipline and has above-average raw power, but his strikeout rate has climbed in the upper minors.
He’s a below-average defender at second base who probably fits better in left field or at first base. There are some similarities to last winter’s Spencer Horwitz pickup in that regard, though Horwitz had a much longer track record of hitting in Triple-A than Callihan does.
Callihan has less than one year of service and has two minor league options remaining. He’ll battle for a bench job in camp but seems likelier to begin the season in Indy. He can factor in as a bat-first utility type throughout the season if he’s hitting well in the minors.
Respective images via Jordan Godfree and Sam Greene, Imagn Images.
Poll: Will Konnor Griffin Break Camp With The Pirates?
As Spring Training gets underway, many fans are watching top prospects. For the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin, however, it’s not just fans in Pittsburgh watching to see if he’ll be in the starting lineup on Opening Day; it’s the entire baseball world.
Griffin won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until the end of April. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft opened eyes all around the sport with his performance in his first professional season last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 in 122 games across three levels, topping out in Double-A. That was enough to make him the consensus top prospect in the sport. The Athletic’s Keith Law called Griffin “the most exciting prospect in the minors since Mike Trout” last month, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen described Griffin as “a franchise-altering entity whose talent rivals that of Bobby Witt Jr.”
It’s hard to get much more impressive than comparisons to Trout and Witt. Between the hype prospect evaluators of all stripes are heaping onto Griffin and his unbelievable start to his pro career, it’s understandable that he would be in the conversation to start the season with the Pirates on Opening Day, even though he’ll still be a teenager.
For now, the Pirates are saying all the right things. Every indication has been that the team will give Griffin the opportunity to earn his way onto the roster. The players currently standing in his way, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, aren’t the sort of slam-dunk regulars that would normally give a club pause when it comes to pushing one of them into a bench role. That open avenue toward a roster spot is great news for Griffin, and so far he’s made the most of the opportunity he’s been handed during camp with two homers in his first ten plate appearances this spring.
There are other factors to consider as well. The most obvious is that Griffin is extremely inexperienced as a professional. He’s played only 122 professional games. Elite prospects have been getting called up more quickly since Trout made his debut 15 years ago, but even by more recent standards Griffin would be among the fastest to reach the show. Witt had 161 games in the minors before his big league debut, and Juan Soto‘s short stint in the minor leagues lasted 122 games, the exact amount Griffin logged last year.
The Pirates are entering a year where they’re clearing trying to win, more than in other recent seasons. They added Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna to help bolster a stagnant offense and added Gregory Soto to the bullpen as well. That quartet cost around $60MM in total, which is a notable chunk of change by the Pirates’ typical standards.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is under club control for just four more seasons before he’ll reach free agency and could see his arbitration price explode by 2027 or 2028. The Pirates are acutely aware of that, and getting the most out of Griffin they possibly can while Skenes is still in town should be the team’s top priority.
Service time is another factor the Pirates will need to consider, and that cuts both ways when it comes to the Griffin decision. Holding Griffin down for even just three weeks to start the year could unlock a seventh year of team control over Griffin by ensuring he doesn’t earn a full year of MLB service in 2026. The counter to that, of course, is Skenes himself. The Pirates didn’t promote Skenes until May 2024, but he was still dominant enough once he arrived to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and earn himself a full year of service anyway. Had they simply brought Skenes up on Opening Day, the Pirates would’ve been able to secure an extra draft pick thanks to his Rookie of the Year win.
Another wrinkle in the service time conversation is Griffin’s apparent willingness to consider an extension with Pittsburgh. If the sides were to reach a deal either this spring or in the early days of the 2026 campaign, that would negate the service time concerns. While explicitly holding a player down due to service time considerations or promoting them only if they agree to an extension is frowned upon, it has happened. The prospect promotion incentives added in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement have somewhat lessened the frequency with which such situations occur, but they’ve also prompted some teams to wait until late August with prospects who otherwise look ready, so as to preserve their rookie status (and potential PPI gains) the following season. The Pirates didn’t call Bubba Chandler up until Aug. 22 last year. If they do agree to an extension, the Bucs would be incentivized to not finalize it until after Griffin’s debut. A player who signs a pre-debut extension is not eligible to earn a PPI pick for his team.
How do MLBTR readers think Griffin’s candidacy for a spot on the Opening Day roster will play out? Will he make the team, or start the year in the minor leagues? Or, perhaps, could his status on the MLB roster be determined by how extension talks between the sides go this spring? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Konnor Griffin break camp with the Pirates?
Pirates, Konnor Griffin Open To Extension Talks
The baseball world is currently buzzing with excitement about Konnor Griffin. He hasn’t even hit his 20th birthday yet but is considered to be the top prospect in baseball and has a chance to break camp with the Pirates. Locking him up to a long-term deal is also a possibility, with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporting that both Griffin and the Bucs are open to an extension.
It’s not a surprising stance from the team. As mentioned, Griffin is the top prospect in baseball and there seems to be little debating it. Baseball America, ESPN, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and The Athletic all have him in the top spot going into 2026. Some even consider him the best prospect in years. The ninth overall pick from 2024, he’s viewed as a rare five-tool monster. He’s a plus shortstop who was almost drafted as a pitcher, so the arm is clearly there.
Last year, he went from Single-A to High-A to Double-A, getting into 122 games overall. He hit 21 home runs and stole 65 bases. He slashed .333/.415/.527 on the year. He got some help from a .403 batting average on balls in play but everyone believes in the bat. It was reported in the offseason that the Bucs would consider carrying Griffin on the Opening Day roster this year even though he doesn’t turn 20 until late April and has no Triple-A experience. He added some more coal to the engine of the hype train when he hit two home runs against the Red Sox yesterday.
Not all prospects pan out but there are fewer busts the higher up the lists you go. Griffin seems to have a good chance to be a really good major league player for a long time. Players in this position are also often signed to extensions. In recent years, cornerstone players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Wander Franco, Jackson Merrill, Roman Anthony, Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuña Jr. and others have signed big multi-year extensions.
From Griffin’s perspective, it’s notable that he’s open to the possibility but he and the club would have to agree on a price point. Turning down a nine-figure guarantee probably isn’t easy but the potential for big earnings is still there if he goes year to year.
Juan Soto is an extreme example of the upside. The Nationals made Soto multiple nine-figure extension offers, reportedly getting as high as $440MM in 2022, but Soto made a bet on himself. That paid off as he made $79.6MM during his four arbitration seasons and then hit free agency as a 26-year old. That youth helped him secure a $765MM deal from the Mets.
That path is theoretically open to Griffin. As mentioned, he’s still about two months away from his 20th birthday. If he is able to earn a full service time this year, he could hit free agency after 2031, a few months ahead of his 26th birthday. Even if it’s too much to expect him to be as good as Soto at the plate, Griffin seems likely to add more value via his speed and defense.
As mentioned by Hiles, it’s possible for the Bucs and Griffin to sign some kind of deal that gives the club some extra years of control but still allows him to hit free agency in his late 20s. Griffin may be open to that but he would be leaving some upside on the table, as teams clearly value that youth. In addition to the Soto example, there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He got $325MM, the largest deal for a pure pitcher ever, even though he no major league experience yet. A major factor was the fact that he was 25 years old when he was coming over from Japan.
Perhaps there’s some way to get creative and have Griffin lock in big earnings while still preserving future earning potential. Witt’s deal with the Royals is for 11 years but he can opt out after seven. The pact between Rodríguez and the Mariners is technically a 12-year guarantee but with a very complicated structure involving multiple options and escalators starting after the sixth full year.
Whether creative structures are involved or not, the price is likely to rise over time, as players generally have more earning power as they move towards free agency. Jackson Chourio has the record guarantee for a player who hasn’t yet debuted, getting eight years and $82MM from the Brewers. Even a brief major league debut is enough for a big jump, with many of the aforementioned names getting their nine-figure deals with less than a year of big league experience. Rodríguez got the top guarantee for guys under one year of service, getting to $210MM. After two years in the big leagues, Tatis got $340MM and Witt $288.8MM.
The Pirates would likely have to go into franchise-record territory to get something done. The biggest guarantee they’ve given out was their $100MM deal for Bryan Reynolds a few years back. Griffin has more prospect hype than Chourio did a few years ago when he signed his extension with Milwaukee, so it’s arguable that Griffin could warrant a nine-figure guarantee right now.
The Bucs generally don’t run up huge payrolls but should be able to get something done if they want to, as the long-term books are fairly clean. The Reynolds deal goes through 2030 but with a $14MM salary this year and $15MM in each of the next four campaigns. That’s a decent chunk of change but fairly manageable in the context of modern baseball salaries. The Mitch Keller deal only goes through 2028. Ryan O’Hearn is the only other guy with a guaranteed deal for 2027. Even though the Bucs are a fairly low-spending club, similar teams have gotten these deals done, with the Rays signing Franco and the Royals signing Witt.
If the Bucs and Griffin are able to work something out in the next few weeks, the team would be incentivized to not make it official until after Opening Day. Strangely, the prospect promotion incentive doesn’t apply to players who have already signed long-term extensions, so Chourio wasn’t PPI eligible for the Brewers. It is perhaps not a coincidence that Kristian Campbell and Samuel Basallo signed extensions a few days after their respective major league promotions last year, therefore keeping the PPI on the table. Campbell’s PPI eligibility was later nullified because he was optioned to the minors and didn’t earn a full year of service in 2025.
Time will tell if the two sides can work out a deal or not. Contract status aside, Griffin’s ascent is adding excitement for the Pirates in 2026. There was already a lot of talent on the pitching staff, led by Paul Skenes. The offense has been lacking but they added O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna in the offseason. If Griffin can come up, take over the shortstop job and succeed, that could be another boon for the lineup. It can be dangerous putting too many expectations on such a young player but the industry is unanimous in considering Griffin special.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
Pirates Notes: Jones, Harbin, Brannigan, Simón
Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk provided some injury updates to reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Perhaps most notably, right-hander Jared Jones is doing well in his rehab and the club is trying to have him ready at the one-year mark of his surgery.
Jones underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow on May 21st of 2025. It was not a full Tommy John surgery, as the club announced it as a UCL repair, rather than a replacement. They also listed the estimated return timeline as 10 to 12 months, shorter than that of TJS.
When the Bucs signed José Urquidy a couple of weeks ago, they put Jones on the 60-day injured list. That clock doesn’t start until the season opens, so Jones won’t be eligible for reinstatement until late May, but it seems the Pirates are hoping that he can be healthy enough to be activated as soon as the 60 days are up.
That would be a great development for the Pirates if all goes according to plan. Jones had an exciting debut in 2024, posting a 4.14 earned run average in 121 2/3 innings. He struck out 26.2% of batters faced while only giving out walks 7.7% of the time. Pittsburgh goes into the season with Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller in two rotation spots. They should be followed by some combination of Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Urquidy, Hunter Barco and Thomas Harrington.
Ideally, Jones can get healthy by late May and jump into that group. Who gets bumped out will naturally depend on who is healthy and performing well in the interim. Skenes is optionable but obviously isn’t getting sent down. Keller and Urquidy can’t be optioned to the minors without consent since each has at least five years of service time, though Urquidy consented to being optioned with the Tigers last year. Everyone else in the mix is optionable.
Turning to the bullpen, Ryan Harbin won’t be in the mix for the Opening Day roster. He has a teres major injury and won’t throw for the next six weeks, at which point he will undergo further imaging. Whenever he is declared healthy, he will have to ramp back up to game readiness.
Harbin was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November. He has a full slate of options and his upper level minor league experience is still limited, with just 14 appearances at both Double-A and Triple-A. He was probably a long shot to earn an Opening Day roster spot but he will be in the mix for an up-and-down bullpen depth job this year. That will be on pause until he gets healthy. Even once cleared, he will probably have to show some improved command. He struck out 31.9% of batters faced in the minors last year but gave out walks at a massive 16% clip.
Infielder Jack Brannigan got hit in the nose with a ground ball recently and sustained multiple injuries to the area. His timeline is still being determined. He is on the 40-man roster but wasn’t likely to factor into the Opening Day roster as he still has no Triple-A experience. He should be ticketed for a depth role this year, so there shouldn’t be a strong need to rush through this current setback.
There was also an update on non-roster infielder/outfielder Ronny Simón. He underwent shoulder surgery about four months ago and should get into games in late March or early April. He suffered a dislocated left shoulder in August and finished last year on the IL. He was non-tendered in November and then re-signed to a minor league deal. He’ll have to get healthy and then embark on a delayed spring ramp-up before factoring into the club’s position player depth. He hasn’t hit much in the majors yet but slashed .297/.392/.452 on the farm last year while stealing 28 bases in just 69 games and bouncing around to multiple positions.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Pirates Sign Carson Fulmer To Minor League Deal
The Pirates have signed right-hander Carson Fulmer to a minor league contract, reports Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Fulmer, a client of Icon Sports Management, receives an invite to big league spring training and has already arrived at Pirates camp.
Fulmer, 32, was the No. 8 overall pick back in 2015. He hasn’t matched that draft status or the considerable fanfare he generated during his Vanderbilt days, but he’s pitched decently in a multi-inning role for the Angels across the past three seasons, logging a combined 4.43 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 42.3% ground-ball rate in 126 innings (44 relief appearances, nine starts).
As Alex Stumpf points out, this is somewhat incredibly the fourth stint for Fulmer in the Pirates organization — despite never actually appearing in a major league game with them. Pittsburgh claimed Fulmer off waivers from the Tigers back in August of 2020 and immediately optioned him. He was designated him for assignment a couple weeks later and lost to the Orioles via waivers. The Bucs claimed him back from the Orioles three weeks later and even recalled him to the big league roster for the final couple days of the season, but he didn’t pitch in a game. Fulmer was designated for assignment the following spring and claimed by the Reds.
The Pirates also signed Fulmer to a minor league contract and brought him to camp last spring. He didn’t make the club but did spend the first two months of the season pitching for Triple-A Indianapolis, where he logged a 4.64 ERA in 42 2/3 innings (seven relief appearances, six starts). Those numbers generally align with Fulmer’s performance in parts of what is now nine seasons at the Triple-A level.
Pittsburgh’s bullpen is largely set, but there are at least a couple spots up for grabs this spring. Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto, Isaac Mattson, Justin Lawrence and Carmen Mlodzinski all figure to be on the Opening Day roster, health permitting. Left-hander Mason Montgomery, acquired alongside Brandon Lowe in the three-team deal sending righty Mike Burrows to Houston, should have a strong chance to make the club, too. The final two spots will be a contest including Evan Sisk, Kyle Nicolas, Cam Sanders and Yohan Ramirez. Since he’s out of minor league options, Ramirez might have an advantage. Non-roster invitees joining Fulmer in big league camp include Chris Devenski, Joe La Sorsa and Beau Burrows.
Bill Mazeroski Passes Away
The Pirates announced this morning that Hall of Famer Bill Mazeroski passed away yesterday at age 89. The team’s statement included a tribute from chairman Bob Nutting, who described Mazeroski as “one of a kind — a true Pirates legend, a National Baseball Hall of Famer and one of the finest defensive second basemen the game has ever seen.”
“His name will always be tied to the biggest home run in baseball history and the 1960 World Series championship, but I will remember him most for the person he was: humble, gracious and proud to be a Pirate.”
A career Pirate who played 17 seasons in the big leagues from 1956-72, Mazeroski is best-known for his legendary walk-off home run in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. The Pirates had won their first National League pennant since 1927 on the strength of eight All-Star players, including Mazeroski. Still, they faced a challenge in overcoming a powerful Yankees roster featuring Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Whitey Ford, and others.
With the Series tied at three games apiece, it was Mazeroski who delivered the winning blow in the bottom of the 9th of a wild Game 7. On a 1-0 count against Yankees pitcher Ralph Terry, Mazeroski drilled a high fastball over the left-center field wall to clinch the Pirates’ 10-9 victory and the championship. It was their first World Series title since 1925 and the first time a World Series ended on a walk-off home run. To this day, Mazeroski’s blast stands as one of the most iconic home runs in the history of the sport.
Mazeroski joined the Pirates organization out of high school in 1954, and made his MLB debut in July 1956 at the age of 19. He played his first full season in 1957 and established himself as a contact-oriented second baseman, batting .283 with 149 hits and 59 runs scored. His 1958 season was arguably his best, as Maz batted .275/.308/.439 in 607 plate appearances with 156 hits and 19 home runs, the latter being a career high. He was an All-Star for the first time and also earned his first Gold Glove while finishing eighth in NL MVP voting.
In addition to being a contact hitter, Mazeroski’s career came to be defined by his defense. He won a total of eight Gold Gloves, including five straight from 1963-67. His defense alone was valued at 24.0 bWAR, which ties him for 23rd all-time. Mazeroski holds the record for most double plays turned (1709) as a second baseman, and his 6685 assists from the keystone ranks fifth all-time. No discussion of the game’s best defensive players is complete without mention of Mazeroski’s accomplishments.
In an 11-year stretch from 1958-68, Mazeroski tallied 1,608 of his 2,016 career hits while batting .263/.300/.374 and accumulating 32.1 bWAR. He was remarkably durable, playing at least 130 games with 527 PA or more every year from 1957-68. He earned a total of seven All-Star nods, the last of those coming in 1967 when he led the NL in games played and tallied a career-high 167 hits. He became more of a part-time player at the end of his career and won a second World Series in 1971 against the Orioles. He retired in 1972 at the age of 35.
Overall, Mazeroski batted .260/.299/.367 with 2,016 hits, 138 home runs, and 853 runs batted in. He became eligible for Hall of Fame admission in 1978 but did not meet the required threshold before falling off the ballot in 1992. Most pointed to his lower-than-usual offensive output as a reason for exclusion, but the Veterans Committee disagreed in 2001, admitting Mazeroski to the Hall in recognition of his defensive excellence.
We at MLBTR extend our condolences to Mazeroski’s family, friends, loved ones, former teammates, and baseball fans around the world.
Dodgers Claim Jack Suwinski
3:23PM: Suwinski’s claim has been officially announced by the Dodgers, and Enrique Hernandez was placed on the 60-day injured list in the corresponding roster move. Hernandez underwent surgery in November to repair a torn muscle in his non-throwing arm, and it was already known that the utilityman would be missing at least the first couple of months of the 2026 season.
1:24PM: The Dodgers are claiming outfielder Jack Suwinski off waivers, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Pirates designated Suwinski for assignment earlier this week to open up a 40-man roster spot for Marcell Ozuna.
The 27-year-old Suwinski has struggled mightily over the past two years, following a breakout 2023 campaign. The outfielder began last season on the big-league roster, but didn’t make it through April. He ended up tallying 59 games with the Pirates and 56 games at Triple-A. Suwinski mashed in the minors to the tune of a 150 wRC+. He managed just a 55 wRC+ in 178 MLB plate appearances.
With the Pirates adding outfielders Jhostynxon Garcia and Jake Mangum in separate trades this offseason, plus free agent signing Ryan O’Hearn potentially spending time on the grass, Suwinski was a long shot to contribute with the Pirates. The Ozuna addition locked up the DH spot, further limiting the chance for Suwinski to make the club. He’ll head to the Dodgers and look to rebuild his value in a different organization.
As good as Suwinski was in 2023, his swing-and-miss tendencies suggested the production was unsustainable. He hit 26 home runs and chipped in 13 steals in his first full season in the big leagues, but it came with a 32% strikeout rate. That was after a rookie year that saw him swat 19 home runs in 372 plate appearances while striking out at a 30.6% clip. Suwinski has walked at a strong 12.3% rate as a big leaguer, so he’s got the three true outcomes covered. He just hasn’t done enough of the home run part of the equation in recent seasons.
The Dodgers are set in the outfield with Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages, and Kyle Tucker locked into everyday roles. The right-handed Pages has been much better against lefties (.831 OPS) than righties (.722 OPS) in his career, so perhaps there’s a platoon opportunity there, but his glove is tough to take out of the lineup. Suwinski has put up -16 Defensive Runs Saved in his career as a center fielder, so he’s unlikely to be a fit in that role. Pushing Alex Call for the fourth outfielder gig is his best hope to make the roster.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images