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Zaidi: Giants Unlikely To Make Further Roster Additions Right Now

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Last week, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said that the club wanted to improve behind the plate but were unlikely to give out a major league deal to address that position. It appears that viewpoint extends to other areas of the roster as well, with Zaidi again speaking with reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

“It would be nice to have somebody who can play the middle infield spots off the bench, ideally a plus defender,” Zaidi said. “But that bumps somebody off the roster and right now, the way it looks, everybody has kind of got a clear role.” And how about the outfield? “It would be a challenge bringing in any additional outfielders and having to move guys around,” he says. “We sort of have most, if not all, of our at-bats accounted for at those [outfield] spots right now.”

It seems the Giants are pretty happy with all of the players in the mix at the moment and will stick to non-roster moves for the time being. The club added a couple of outfielders already this winter, signing Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to take over the corner spots. That leaves Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater handling center field while Joc Pederson is likely takes the bulk of at-bats in the designated hitter slot. They also have Luis González and Heliot Ramos as optionable depth players.

On the infield, it will be more of a hodgepodge of holdovers from last year’s roster. Brandon Crawford seemed like he was going to get bumped off shortstop when Carlos Correa was set to take over that job for the next 13 years. That deal then fell through and Correa is returning to the Twins, allowing Crawford to hang on to the spot. Thairo Estrada took over the second base job last year and should be back there in 2023. In 541 plate appearances in 2022, he hit 14 home runs and slashed .260/.322/.400 for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% better than the league average hitter. He also added 21 stolen bases but the reviews on his defense were mixed. Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged him as being just a shade below league average but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -12. Perhaps a bit more exposure to the position would help, as he’d only ever had part-time duty at the keystone prior to last year. Zaidi mentioned the club would like to add another middle infielder, though it seems they will stick to minor league deals.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has been squeezed out of the outfield picture but seems likely to get plenty of opportunity to take over first base with Brandon Belt now out of the picture. Third baseman Evan Longoria also has a new team this year, leaving third base primarily in the hands of Wilmer Flores, while J.D. Davis and David Villar are each on hand to help out at the corners on occasion.

In terms of depth, Isan Díaz and Brett Wisely are each on the 40-man roster and can be optioned. That’s something that seems to be valued, given Zaidi’s comments about not wanting to bump anyone off their current roster position. Wisely has yet to make his major league debut, having just been acquired from the Rays and added to the roster prior to the Rule 5 deadline. He hit .274/.371/.460 in Double-A last year for a 121 wRC+ while playing each infield position and left field. As for Díaz, he was outrighted by the Marlins but then acquired by the Giants for non-roster depth. He responded by hitting .275/.377/.574 for Triple-A Sacramento and getting a roster spot again.

Like all clubs, the Giants would surely love to add some extra depth to this group but it seems they like all of these players enough that they don’t want to sacrifice any of them in the name of additions. “I wouldn’t rule out bringing in somebody who could be a multi-position utility type who is maybe a speed-and-defense specialist, but it would bump somebody that right now we’re planning [on being] on the roster, so that would come at some cost,” Zaidi said.

If that viewpoint continues to hold for the next few weeks, the Giants will seemingly keep themselves to minor league deals. One roster spot seems likely to open up soon, however, as it’s been reported that Luke Jackson could open the season on the 60-day injured list while continuing to rehab from Tommy John surgery. There’s no injured list during the offseason but players can be placed there once pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. If the club finds another player they’d like to add to their roster, they could try waiting a few weeks to close the deal, though the player  could also pursue more firm commitments elsewhere in the interim. They would also have to be quite confident in Jackson’s timeline, since the 60-day clock doesn’t begin until Opening Day, meaning he wouldn’t be eligible for activation until late May.

Red Sox Interested In Josh Harrison

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The Red Sox have been looking for ways to bolster their roster and have infielder Josh Harrison “on their radar,” reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

This item from Heyman came out before the Sox reached an agreement with Adam Duvall, but that move likely doesn’t do much to dampen their interest in Harrison. With Duvall taking some time in center field, that could theoretically move Enrique Hernández into a middle infield role, but they would likely still have a need for someone like Harrison. Just recently, when speaking about the club’s need to add a couple of up-the-middle players, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said it “doesn’t even need to be limited to two.”

There were a few reasons why the Sox needed to look for so much help up the middle. Xander Bogaerts, the club’s shortstop of many years, opted out of his contract and signed with the Padres. The hope in Boston was that Trevor Story, who played second base last year in deference to Bogaerts, could slide over to the other side of the bag this year. But while ramping up for the season ahead, he experienced some pain in his arm and ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John. He’s now set to miss most or perhaps all of the 2023 season.

That left the club with limited options for the middle infield and center field. Hernández and Christian Arroyo could have perhaps combined in the middle infield, though both players have fairly limited experience at shortstop. Arroyo has just 172 1/3 big league innings there, spending much more time at second and third base. Hernández has logged 618 innings at short but scattered over the past nine seasons, never reaching 160 in any individual campaign. That scenario would also leave Jarren Duran as the everyday center fielder and the catching duties in the hands of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. Aside from Hernández, none of those options have truly established themselves as everyday players in the big leagues, leaving Boston with one solid choice for four positions. That makes it plenty sensible that they’d look for fortifications in the form of multiple players.

Since the news of Story’s injury, the club has added Jorge Alfaro on a minor league deal to help behind the plate and the aforementioned Duvall signing gives them an extra option in center field. The latter signing seems to point to Hernández spending more time on the dirt but they could further bolster their infield by adding Harrison. The 35-year-old spent his prime with the Pirates but has since gone into journeyman mode, jumping to the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and White Sox over the past four seasons.

With Chicago last year, he got into 119 games, providing his usual blend of low power and high contact. He hit just seven home runs on the year and only walked in 4.9% of his trips to the plate, but he also went down on strikes just 16.7% of the time. He finished the year with a batting line of .256/.317/.370 for a wRC+ of 98, just two ticks below league average. Defensively, Harrison played mostly second base but also occasionally played third base, left field and shortstop. He’s likely not viewed as a solution at that latter position since he only spent three innings there last year and just 265 in his career, with most of that coming way back in 2012. His work at second and third is generally graded well though, and he can take an outfield position in an emergency.

A signing of Harrison would likely require the Red Sox to view Hernández as a viable solution at shortstop. Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote back in December that there are some in the organization who indeed see him that way. As mentioned earlier, he’s logged some decent innings there in the aggregate but hasn’t spent an extended stretch at the position. That makes it hard to gauge how he’d fare on a full-time basis, but for what it’s worth, advanced defensive metrics don’t make it seem like an outlandish idea. He’s earned nine Defensive Runs Saved over his 618 career innings and a 5.3 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average has given him a -3.

The Sox have also expressed some interest in a more straightforward shortstop solution in the form of Elvis Andrus. He’s never played anywhere else except short and could simply kick Hernández over to second base where’s spent 1717 innings in his career, almost three times as much as his work at short. Since Andrus can play shortstop, he’ll likely require a slightly higher financial investment than Harrison, so the Sox would have to decide whether it’s worth the extra few dollars to get the more obvious fit or try to save a few bucks in order to try the more creative route and give Hernández a shot at the job. The latter path would be fairly risky, since Duvall also isn’t a proven option in center field. He only has 593 2/3 innings that that spot in his career, all of that coming in the past three years. Signing Harrison to play second would mean the Sox are committing to unproven options at shortstop and center, both considered to be premium defensive positions.

The agreement with Duvall pushes Boston’s competitive balance tax calculation to $216MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. That leaves the club with some wiggle room before they reach the $233MM luxury tax threshold, which they probably would like to stay under after just barely going over last year. They could certainly fit in a contract for either Andrus or Harrison while staying under the line, but they probably want to earmark some funds for some more pitching and midseason acquisitions. Other free agents who could help in the middle infield include José Iglesias, César Hernández and Didi Gregorius.

The Opener: Marlins, Signings, MLBTR Chat

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Following a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are the Marlins staying active in the free agent market?

The Marlins have been long expected to be more active on the trade market — where they’ve already dealt shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and are currently marketing a group of young, controllable starters to rival clubs — than in free agency. That said, even as Miami discusses trades with the Twins and Cardinals (among many other suitors), they might be more active on the open market than otherwise expected. They’ve already signed right-hander Johnny Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and reports yesterday indicated that the club has interest in first baseman Yuli Gurriel and closer Aroldis Chapman.

The Marlins enjoy a great deal of flexibility as to which MLB-ready players to target in their dealings with other clubs, with plenty of space to upgrade at virtually every position outside of the starting rotation. While this flexibility allows them to be adaptable in trade discussions, focusing more on the quality of the talent they bring in rather where they talent can contribute, it also means that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to fill every hole on a roster that lost 93 games last season.

2. Recent signings yet to be made official

In Monday’s Opener, we discussed Miami’s reported deal with Johnny Cueto and San Diego’s reported deal with Nelson Cruz, which both had yet to be made official. Those deals have still not been made official, and they are joined in limbo by four right-handed corner bats: Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini, Brian Anderson, and Adam Duvall. McCutchen’s $5MM agreement with the Pirates and Mancini’s two-year, $14MM pact with the Cubs were reported as far back as last weekend, so they’re likelier to be made official more quickly than Anderson’s deal with the Brewers or Duvall’s signing with the Red Sox, both of which were reported in just the past twelve hours. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee and Boston all join Miami and San Diego in having full 40-man rosters, meaning corresponding moves will be needed for each signing.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.

Brewers Sign Brian Anderson

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Jan. 18: Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the deal is for one-year and $3.5MM, with up to $2MM in incentives.

Jan. 17: The Brewers are in agreement on a deal with free agent third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is a client of CAA Sports.

Anderson, 30 in May, had spent his entire career as a member of the Marlins. Selected in the third round of the 2014 draft, the University of Arkansas product reached the majors a little more than three years later. He debuted at the tail end of the 2017 season and established himself as Miami’s everyday third baseman the following year.

That marked the first of four straight years in which Miami would pencil him in at the hot corner on Opening Day. For his first three seasons, the right-handed hitter was a productive player on both sides of the ball. He hit at an above-average level every year between 2018-20, showing roughly average plate discipline and contact skills with quality hard contact numbers. Miami’s cavernous ballpark didn’t do him many favors from a home run perspective but he topped 30 doubles in both 2018 and ’19.

Overall, Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 in just over 1400 plate appearances through his first three full seasons. He paired that quality offense with average to slightly above par marks at the hot corner from public defensive metrics. While he wasn’t a star, Anderson looked the part of a solid regular who could factor into the Miami lineup at least throughout his arbitration seasons.

The past two years have been disappointing, though, largely thanks to injuries. Anderson missed extended chunks of the 2021 campaign with a pair of subluxations in his left shoulder. In 67 games when healthy enough to play, he managed only a .249/.337/.378 line. He had another pair of injured list stints last season — first for lower back spasms in June, then a six-week absence late in the summer for another left shoulder issue. Anderson appeared in 98 games but put up a career-worst .222/.311/.346 line through 383 trips to the plate.

Over the past two years, he’s hit a below-average .233/.321/.359 through 647 plate appearances. His strikeouts have gone up slightly but the greater concern is the lack of damage he’s done on contact. Anderson’s hard contact percentage has dipped a bit from its 2018-19 peak. He’s collected a combined 25 doubles over the past two seasons after excelling at hitting the gaps for his first few years against MLB pitching. In the wake of that diminished production, Miami non-tendered him to kick off this winter instead of bringing him back on an arbitration salary projected around $5.2MM.

Once he hit free agency, Anderson became an intriguing buy-low target for other clubs. It’d certainly appear as though his production has been adversely affected by the shoulder concerns that have sent him to the IL a few times over the past couple years. The Brewers will hope an offseason of rest and a change of scenery will allow him to put his recent struggles behind him and recapture some of his early-career promise.

In addition to his roughly average defense at third base, Anderson has ample experience in the corner outfield. He’s played over 1500 MLB innings as an outfielder, with almost all of that work coming in right field. Public metrics have been split on his work on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved has credited him as eight runs better than average in the outfield over the course of his career. Statcast, on the other hand, has pegged him seven runs below par.

The Brewers presumably take the more favorable view of Anderson’s outfield glovework. Luis Urías is fairly well established as the third baseman in Milwaukee. Anderson offers some extra cover at the hot corner but has his clearest path to playing time in right field. Christian Yelich will man left field, while the Brewers looked set to turn center and right field over to Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor, respectively. Mitchell played well late in his rookie season but has only 28 MLB games under his belt. Taylor connected on 17 home runs while playing plus defense last year, earning a semi-regular role. Yet he also hit .233 with a below-average .286 on-base percentage, raising some questions about his ability to handle the offensive demands of an everyday right field job.

Anderson won’t necessarily bump Taylor from the starting lineup, but he adds another option to the mix for manager Craig Counsell. His right-handed bat also offers some extra balance to a lefty-swinging first base/designated hitter tandem of Jesse Winker and Rowdy Tellez, though Anderson himself has thus far fared better without the platoon advantage in his career.

On a one-year contract, Anderson is set to return to free agency next winter after surpassing the six-years service threshold during the 2023 campaign. Once finalized, Anderson will become the third major league signee of the offseason for Milwaukee. Wade Miley inked a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee, while outfielder Blake Perkins is on a pre-arbitration salary having never before played in the majors. Before accounting for Anderson’s money, Milwaukee projects for a 2023 payroll around $117MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The club opened last season in the $132MM range, so there should still be room for more lower-cost additions for general manager Matt Arnold and his front office.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Twins Outright Kyle Garlick, Oliver Ortega

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Twins outfielder Kyle Garlick and reliever Oliver Ortega each went unclaimed on waivers, according to an announcement from the club’s communications director Dustin Morse (Twitter link). Both players have been outrighted to Triple-A St. Paul and will receive non-roster invitations to MLB Spring Training.

Garlick was designated for assignment last Wednesday as the corresponding move to accommodate Carlos Correa’s return. It’s the second outright of his career, which would’ve given him the right to test minor league free agency. The club announcement that he’ll be in big league camp suggests he’s instead chosen to accept the assignment.

That’s not too surprising a call, as the righty-hitting outfielder had signed a $750K contract to avoid arbitration earlier in the offseason. That’s barely above the MLB minimum salary but quite likely locked in more money than he’d have received if he landed a minor league contract with another organization. Refusing the outright assignment to test free agency would’ve required Garlick to relinquish that agreed-upon salary, so he’ll instead try to work his way back onto the roster in Spring Training or during the regular season.

Garlick, 31 next week, is a platoon outfielder. He’s played for the Dodgers, Phillies and Twins over parts of four big league campaigns, the last two of which have been spent in Minnesota. He’s connected on 13 home runs while slugging .538 through 186 MLB plate appearances against left-handed pitching, with that power more than offsetting a modest .301 on-base percentage. Productive as he’s been with the platoon advantage, the California native owns just a .203/.258/.324 line in 159 trips against right-handed pitching.

Ortega has never pitched for the Twins. He just landed with the organization two weeks ago via waiver claim from the Angels. Minnesota DFA him a few days thereafter upon acquiring A.J. Alexy from the Nationals, and they succeeded in running him through waivers. Ortega has never before been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he did not have the ability to test free agency.

The right-hander has appeared at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons with the Halos. Ortega has thrown 43 1/3 innings over 35 career appearances, pitching to a 3.95 ERA. He’s paired that with a modest 19.8% strikeout rate and elevated 10.7% walk percentage, although he’s racked up grounders on nearly 56% of batted balls.

Ortega has also logged 37 2/3 Triple-A innings over the last couple years. He’s only managed a 5.37 ERA at the top minor league level, while his 24% strikeout rate is better than that of his MLB work. Ortega averages roughly 96 MPH on his fastball and still has a pair of option years remaining. If he reclaims his spot on the 40-man roster at any point during the season, the Twins can freely move him between Minneapolis and St. Paul as a depth reliever.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Aroldis Chapman

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The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Aroldis Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Miami becomes the first team known to have checked in on the seven-time All-Star reliever this offseason, though Heyman suggests there are multiple clubs in the mix.

While the Fish are apparently keeping an eye on Chapman, it’s not clear how strong their interest is. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported this afternoon the Marlins hadn’t put forth a formal offer. According to the Herald, Chapman is hoping to sign with a team in the relatively near future and has been working out in the Miami area, where he lives.

One of the sport’s best relievers for more than a decade, Chapman remained a valuable late-game arm as recently as 2021. He secured an All-Star nod that season and provided the Yankees with a 3.36 ERA through 56 1/3 innings. His walk and home run numbers were a bit alarming but the overall results were solid. New York trusted him enough to give him the ninth inning, where he saved 30 games in 34 attempts.

Had Chapman hit free agency coming off that season, he’d likely have been in line for a solid multi-year pact. The big southpaw had easily the worst season of his career in 2022, sending him to the open market with his value at a low ebb. Chapman posted a 4.46 ERA across 36 1/3 innings, the first year in which he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine. He walked 17.5% of opposing hitters, the second-highest rate of his career and the loftiest clip of any reliever with 30+ innings pitched last year.

Chapman paired the abundance of free passes with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career. He fanned 26.9% of batters faced, the first time he’d punched out fewer than 30% of opponents. Even that diminished mark for Chapman was still firmly better than average, however. That’s also true of his fastball velocity. His heater sat at 97.5 MPH, a lower figure compared to his peak when he routinely averaged north of 100 MPH. Yet even that version of Chapman was among the sport’s hardest-throwing southpaws. New Philadelphia teammates Gregory Soto and José Alvarado were the game’s only lefties who topped Chapman in average fastball speed.

Given the quality of even the “lesser” stuff he’s brandishing, Chapman could certainly right the ship and reemerge as a quality high-leverage piece. His 2022 issues weren’t limited to his on-field inconsistency though. The 34-year-old (35 next month) had a pair of stints on the injured list. He missed time early in the year to Achilles tendinitis before a late-season injured list stint that arose when a tattoo got infected. That led to some frustration from Yankees brass, and New York left Chapman off their playoff rosters entirely after he didn’t report to a team workout shortly before the start of the postseason.

That certainly seemed to bring an unceremonious end to Chapman’s generally productive seven-year tenure in the Bronx. There was never much doubt he’d catch on elsewhere. Part of a left-handed relief class that has bizarrely lagged the rest of the free agent market, Chapman lingers in free agency alongside the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins are broadly surveying the market for potential relief help. The Herald reiterates the team’s previously-reported interest in former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes, who continues to work his way back from last May’s shoulder surgery. Jackson and Mish write that Reyes is hopeful of signing with Miami. He’d also be a high-risk upside flier considering his recent health history, though Reyes is far younger than Chapman and throws right-handed. The Fish already have a trio of southpaws — Tanner Scott, Steven Okert and Richard Bleier — locked into their bullpen, so they don’t necessarily have to narrow down targets based on handedness.

The Cardinals Would Be A Good Trade Partner For The Marlins (Or Just About Any Team)

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It’s been largely quiet from the Cardinals since the team inked longtime division rival Willson Contreras to a five-year contract, officially tabbing him as the heir to franchise icon Yadier Molina. Filling the void left by Molina was clearly the top priority for the Cards this winter, though they were also loosely tied to the market for the top available shortstops and some free-agent pitchers.

With Contreras now signed, a look up and down the roster in St. Louis reveals a strong group that’s likely to contend for another NL Central crown in 2023. The Cardinals could use another left-handed reliever — Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Zack Britton and Brad Hand are among the still-available names — and perhaps they could stand to find a more potent backup to Contreras. Broadly speaking, however, it’s a deep and talented roster with a nice group of relievers, plenty of rotation depth and a good bit of positional flexibility, thanks to the versatility of players like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan.

All that said, it also doesn’t feel as though the Cardinals are done this winter. For one thing, their entire rotation, aside from lefty Steven Matz, will reach free agency next winter. The Cards could also stand to add another bat to the mix; while young sluggers Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman offer upside as candidates who can spend some time at DH, neither has quite established himself as a proven big league bat just yet.

In left field, the Cardinals have a quality option in Tyler O’Neill — if he’s healthy. A shoulder impingement and two hamstring strains limited O’Neill to 96 games and quite possibly contributed to a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line. In center, 24-year-old Dylan Carlson is a former top prospect whose numbers were solid in ’22 but not quite what they were in 2021. Lars Nootbaar had a breakout second half in right field.  It’s a talented trio, but not to the extent of the Cardinals’ star-studded infield. Moveover, the Cardinals have other young outfield options waiting in the wings, with Alec Burleson already having made his debut, Moises Gomez all but ready on the heels of a huge minor league season, and uber-prospect Jordan Walker also looming in Triple-A.

It feels like, for all the young talent the Cards have, there’s room for at least one more notable bat to be plugged into the lineup. And, with so many starting pitchers set to reach the open market (or, in Adam Wainwright’s case, retire) next offseason, the Cardinals would probably love to add some controllable pitching.

Looking through the Cardinals’ depth chart, there’s virtually no player who could both be conceivably available and also unattainable for the Cards. The Redbirds have prospects and young, MLB-ready talent at virtually any position, which sets them up for innumerable trade possibilities, be it with the Marlins or another club.

Let’s run through some of the talent they could dangle when seeking an impact bat or high-end pitcher to slot into the rotation:

A Top Catching Prospect

Ivan Herrera was viewed as the Cardinals’ catcher of the future for the past several years, but with Contreras now signed for a half decade, a cloud has been cast on his role with the club. Herrera could still function as a high-quality backup to Contreras, and Contreras is a good enough hitter that he could slot in as a DH on days he’s not behind the plate. Perhaps that opens the door for Herrera to carve out a larger role than most backup catchers might hold, but this is a 22-year-old who just batted .268/.374/.396 against older Triple-A competition and ranks as the game’s No. 84 prospect over at Baseball America. He’s a nice safety net and a potentially very overqualified backup to Contreras… but he’d also be highly appealing to any club lacking a long-term option behind the plate.

Outfielders Galore

As mentioned above, any of O’Neill, Carlson or Nootbaar would hold appeal to other clubs, albeit to varying extents. O’Neill has just two years of club control remaining and is coming off a down season … but he also mashed at a .286/.352/.560 clip and clubbed 34 homers while playing strong defense in 2021. Plenty of teams are looking for a righty bat and might be intrigued to gamble on a rebound. Both Carlson (who was mentioned in Juan Soto rumors) and Nootbaar (who was reportedly of interest to the Jays and A’s in their talks about catching trades this offseason) offer even more club control and plenty of long-term upside.

Trading anyone from that group would absolutely require the Cardinals to receive big league talent in another area: be it a more impactful, established offensive presence to slot into the outfield or perhaps a quality starting pitcher with multiple years of club control remaining. In either instance, any of O’Neill, Carlson or Nootbaar would probably be just one of multiple players moved as part of the return for an established big leaguer.

Beyond their stable of current MLB outfielders, the Cards have Burleson, Gomez and Walker. Burleson, the No. 68 prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, struggled in 53 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut but posted a massive .331/.372/.532 slash in 109 Triple-A games. Gomez played 60 games apiece in Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .294/.371/.624 with 39 home runs. Walker, a 2020 first-round pick who ranks among the sport’s top ten overall prospects on just about any publication, is perhaps the most “untouchable” of all the Cardinals’ young hitters. However, like Gomez and Burleson, he also offers a near-MLB replacement should the Cards move one of their current big league outfielders in a trade package. Walker was drafted as a third baseman, but Nolan Arenado’s presence means he’ll likely debut as an outfielder. After hitting .306/.388/.510 as a 20-year-old and one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s probably not far off.

Young Infielders

The St. Louis infield is mostly set with Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt at the corners, Tommy Edman at shortstop and Brendan Donovan at second base. It’s unlikely the Cards would move anyone from that group, though if you wanted to argue that Donovan, the third-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher, could be included in a package for an impact player, that’s at least loosely feasible. The A’s reportedly asked about him in talks for Sean Murphy, although perhaps the fact that the Cardinals balked at Oakland’s asking price tells us most of what we need to know about Donovan’s availability (or lack thereof).

It’s a strong group, and both Edman and Donovan can be deployed virtually anywhere on the diamond. Each played at least five positions in 2022 alone. Perhaps Donovan will ultimately settle into some type of super-utility role, but that’d require a step forward from another young infielder — which the Cardinals just so happen to possess.

Nolan Gorman didn’t exactly explode onto the scene in his rookie campaign, but he held his own with a .226/.300/.420 batting line and 14 homers in 313 plate appearances. Much of his production came early on and was followed by a strikeout-laden slump — he fanned in 32.3% of his plate appearances — but Gorman is another former top prospect who also tattooed Triple-A pitching in the form of a .275/.330/.585 output, including 16 home runs in just 188 plate appearances. Originally a third baseman, he shifted over to second base because of Arenado. He now has a fair bit of experience at both spots.

Down on the farm, 20-year-old Masyn Winn occupies the No. 56 spot on BA’s Top 100 list. Like Walker, he’s already spent a full season in Double-A. He didn’t hit quite as well, but his .258/.349/.432 output was league-average by measure of wRC+ (100), and like Walker, he was one of the league’s youngest players. BA lauds Winn for having “by far the strongest throwing arm in the minor leagues” and touts him as a plus-plus runner and gives him a chance to be an above-average defender at shortstop. Winn was drafted as a two-way player, but he’s only pitched one inning in pro ball.

Starting Pitching Prospects

It’s perhaps counterintuitive to have just mentioned how the Cardinals need controllable starting pitching and then tout a deep crop of quality pitching prospects from which they could trade. But attrition among pitching prospects is even greater than position players. That’s not to say those arms don’t have value — of course they do — but it’s easier to bank on those arms converting when hoping to fill one rotation spot. Hoping to fill three to four rotation spots with in-house prospects is nothing short of insanity.

The Cardinals aren’t short on intriguing arms, with Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore and Tink Hence all actively ranking, or having recently been ranked on various top-100 lists around the industry. Hence (No. 57) and Graceffo (66) are just a few spots apart on BA’s top 100 at the moment.

Both Liberatore and fellow lefty Zack Thompson (the No. 19 pick in 2019) have reached the Major Leagues already but have not yet established themselves. Liberatore posted ERAs north of 5.00 in both Triple-A and in 34 2/3 big league innings last season, but he’s still just 23 years old and has at least six years of club control — plus a pair of minor league option years remaining. Thompson threw an identical 34 2/3 Major League innings in 2022 but did so primarily out of the bullpen. He also pitched to a pristine 2.08 ERA, and while his 19.9% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate both leave something to be desired, he averages just shy of 95 mph with his heater and did rack up an impressive 53.7% ground-ball rate.

St. Louis has further depth in the form of righty Dakota Hudson, who’s been pushed out of their rotation but is a ground-ball machine with two years of club control remaining. Hudson has just a 4.31 ERA and 13.3% strikeout rate since returning from Tommy John surgery, and his once-blistering sinker averaged just 91.6 mph post-surgery. Still, he’s a ready-made fourth or fifth starter candidate with three option years remaining. Jake Woodford is cut from a similar cloth as a low-strikeout, ground-ball oriented pitcher who could slot into the back of a rotation, although he also posted a 2.23 ERA in 48 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen this past season (albeit with some good fortune on balls in play and a fluky-low home run rate).

Some of these arms will be earmarked for opportunities in the 2024 rotation, and there’s a good chance some will see their stock dip after an injury or a step back in performance. Still, their present-day value gives the Cardinals the opportunity to condense some of that talent into a trade for a more established player.

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Overall, the Cardinals’ wealth of young talent is remarkable for a perennially competitive team that hasn’t drafted higher than 18th overall in the past 15 years and, within the past four years, has pulled off trades for in-their-prime stars like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. It’s an excellent position in which to find themselves as an organization, but if there’s one “downside” (and I’m using that term loosely), it’s the timing of this surfeit of young talent.

The trade market, in general, is quite bleak right now. Miami’s quartet of available arms has dominated headlines, but there’s little else of substance on the market. The Pirates reportedly have a sky-high asking price on Bryan Reynolds that makes him unlikely to be moved in the first place, and one can only imagine they’d ask for even more from a division rival. There are certainly other names that could change hands between now and Opening Day, but the obvious candidates aren’t clear upgrades to the Cardinals. The Mariners have a pair of back-end starters (Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales), while the Twins (Max Kepler) and A’s (Seth Brown) have some outfielders who could be available. There’s just not a ton to be excited about on the trade market right now.

That shouldn’t stop the Cardinals’ front office from trying to force other teams’ hands and convince them to part with starting pitching help or perhaps a slugging bat that might not be a natural trade candidate at first glance. Failing that, the Cardinals are as well positioned as just about any team in the league to swing a deal with the Marlins whenever Miami finally make what feels like an inevitable trade.

Blue Jays Outright Junior Fernandez

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The Blue Jays announced that reliever Junior Fernández has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He’d been designated for assignment last week after Toronto finalized the acquisition of starter Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh.

Fernández has bounced around a bit over the past few months. Initially an amateur signee of the Cardinals in 2014, he’d spent his entire career in the St. Louis organization until being designated for assignment last September. Fernández landed with the division-rival Pirates on waivers and finished the 2022 season there, making three appearances down the stretch. At season’s end, Pittsburgh designated him for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for prospects they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.

The 25-year-old then landed with the Yankees and Blue Jays on successive waiver claims. His stay on the Toronto 40-man lasted less than a week, with Fernández claimed on January 5 and DFA five days later. Now that Toronto has succeeded in running him through waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as upper minors depth. Fernández has never previously been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he doesn’t have the ability to elect minor league free agency.

Fernández has appeared at the MLB level in parts of the last four seasons. The righty has thrown 54 innings across 50 outings, compiling a 5.17 ERA. He’s induced grounders on nearly half the batted balls he’s allowed but paired that with a mediocre 18.7% strikeout percentage and lofty 13.9% walk rate.

While he’s yet to find much consistent success, it’s easy to see why multiple teams have given Fernández a look over the past few months. He averaged 98.7 MPH on his sinker and 88.9 MPH on his slider during his 16 big league outings last year. That velocity hasn’t translated into many strikeouts but has gotten a decent number of swings and misses; opponents have whiffed at 13.5% of the pitches he’s thrown throughout his MLB career, a rate that’s roughly two points higher than average.

Fernández figures to get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training. Assuming he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, he’ll report to Buffalo. Owner of a 4.12 ERA and quality 27% strikeout rate through 83 career Triple-A innings, he’ll be an interesting bullpen depth flier for the Jays. He is out of minor league option years, however. That means if the Jays promote him to the majors at any point, they’ll either have to keep him in the big leagues or again make him available to other teams via trade or waivers.

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